Sunday, February 8, 2026

6 Stocks to BUY NOW After Earnings Crash!

Here is the link. 

 This video discusses six stocks that have experienced significant dips after their recent earnings reports, presenting them as potential buying opportunities. The speaker categorizes these stocks into low, medium, and high-risk options based on their current financial health and market conditions.

Here's a breakdown of the stocks discussed:

  • Low-Risk Stocks (0:50)

    • Amazon (0:59): The stock dropped over 14% due to high spending on AI infrastructure, with a monumental $200 billion projected for 2026 (4:46). Despite this, Amazon's sales exceeded $700 billion (1:38), and net income grew by over 30% (2:16), making it one of the most profitable companies. The North America segment and AWS also show strong growth (3:073:46).
    • Microsoft (6:31): Microsoft's stock fell due to a 66% year-over-year increase in capital expenditure (6:47). However, the company reported $81 billion in sales for the quarter (7:09), up 17% year-over-year, and a 60% increase in net income (7:22). Microsoft's strong market position in enterprise software, GitHub, and Azure, along with AI integrations, indicate significant future potential (7:27).
  • Medium-Risk Stocks (8:21)

    • AMD (8:31): Despite a nearly 20% drop, AMD's earnings were strong, with sales up 34% year-over-year to $10.3 billion (8:57) and operating income up 50% (9:11). The data center business, crucial for AI, grew by 39% (9:21). The dip is attributed to guidance not being "impressive enough" for Wall Street's high expectations (9:38). AMD's AI business is just starting, with new chips and major customer acquisitions like OpenAI and Oracle (10:35).
    • VeriSign (11:33): The stock fell about 10% and is down 30% from its 52-week high (11:38) due to a slight miss on EPS despite beating sales and raising guidance (11:52). VeriSign holds exclusive rights to .com and .net domains, giving it a strong monopoly (12:35). The company boasts high renewal rates (13:04), predictable revenue, and gross margins typically close to 90% (13:39).
  • High-Risk Stocks (14:27)

    • Disney (14:32): Disney's stock has lost nearly half its value (14:46) due to anticipated softer international theme park traffic (14:50), struggles in sports and legacy TV (15:11), and uncertainty surrounding a new CEO (15:38). Despite these challenges, Disney's experiences unit (theme parks, resorts, cruises) generated a record $10 billion in revenue (16:17), accounting for over 70% of operating profit (16:30). The streaming segment (Disney Plus and Hulu) is also showing significant improvement in sales and operating income (17:34).
    • ServiceNow (18:19): ServiceNow has experienced a significant crash, falling over 30% in the past month and 50% in the past year (18:26), despite strong earnings and continued business growth (18:35). The sell-off is attributed to investors not being "impressed enough" (18:41). ServiceNow is a strong enterprise software company that digitalizes workflows (18:56), leading to high renewal rates (19:20). The integration of AI is making their services even more essential for companies (19:30). The main risk is increased competition from tech giants (20:00).

MSFT stock | D chart buy point

 




NVDA stock |

 


道指破历史新高,不只是牛市狂欢,而是主力开始“选方向”……那为什么我会首推NVIDIA(英伟达、辉达)和Microsoft(微软)?

Saturday, February 7, 2026

(会员第18期) 抄底形态之W底构成要素!涨幅如何测量?哪些股票形成W底?

 


(会员第17期) 跌跌不休,何时抄底?抄底K线技术形态之二

 














(会员第16期) 跌跌不休,何时抄底?抄底K线技术形态之一

 





(会员第16期) 跌跌不休,何时抄底?抄底K线技术形态之一

(会员第39期)左侧(越跌越买)交易法,应该注意什么?

 








Feb 6 stock distributor helped to push market up detail please

 On February 6, 2026, the U.S. stock market experienced a historic rally as the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,206.95 points (2.47%) to close above the 50,000 milestone for the first time. This "buy-the-dip" rebound was primarily driven by a recovery in AI hardware and semiconductor stocks, which investors viewed as the primary beneficiaries of massive capital expenditure plans announced by major tech companies

Market Drivers and "Stock Distributors"
While the term "stock distributor" often refers to companies like Boise Cascade (BCC), which saw a 2.8% jump, the broader market push was fueled by the following key sectors and names:
  • AI Hardware Rebound: After a week of heavy selling due to AI bubble fears, semiconductor leaders like Nvidia (NVDA) surged nearly 8%, while Broadcom gained 7%. Investors pivoted to these "pick-and-shovel" winners as they realized that massive AI spending by firms like Amazon ($200 billion forecast) directly benefits chip manufacturers.
  • Industrial and Cyclical Gains: Blue-chip industrial stocks provided significant upward pressure. Caterpillar (CAT) rallied 7.1%, benefiting from strong power equipment sales to data centers. Other notable movers in the building and infrastructure distribution space included Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), which hit a new 52-week high after rising 2.9%.
  • Cryptocurrency Recovery: A significant bounce in Bitcoin, which rose back above $70,000, helped lift crypto-exposed stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR), which surged 26%.
  • Consumer Sentiment: A preliminary reading from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment at its highest level since August, while short-term inflation expectations moderated to 3.5%, providing a macroeconomic tailwind for the rally.
Major Index Performance (Feb 6, 2026)
IndexClosing LevelDaily Change
Dow Jones Industrial Average50,115.67+2.47%
S&P 5006,932.30+1.97%
Nasdaq Composite23,031.21+2.18%
Russell 2000 (Small-Cap)2,670.34+3.60%
Philadelphia Semiconductor (SOX)7,614.64+5.70%
Key Insights
  • Historic Milestone: The Dow's climb above 50,000 took less than two years after previously hitting 40,000, illustrating the index's resilience despite ongoing "walls of worry".
  • Divergent Tech Moves: While hardware stocks soared, some major cloud and software names struggled. Amazon fell 5.6% as investors worried its aggressive $200 billion AI spending plan would burn through cash and squeeze margins in 2026.
  • Auto Sector Drag: Contrary to the broad rally, Stellantis shares plunged 24% following a $26 billion charge related to scaling back its electric vehicle business.Market Drivers and "Stock Distributors"
    While the term "stock distributor" often refers to companies like Boise Cascade (BCC), which saw a 2.8% jump, the broader market push was fueled by the following key sectors and names:
    • AI Hardware Rebound: After a week of heavy selling due to AI bubble fears, semiconductor leaders like Nvidia (NVDA) surged nearly 8%, while Broadcom gained 7%. Investors pivoted to these "pick-and-shovel" winners as they realized that massive AI spending by firms like Amazon ($200 billion forecast) directly benefits chip manufacturers.
    • Industrial and Cyclical Gains: Blue-chip industrial stocks provided significant upward pressure. Caterpillar (CAT) rallied 7.1%, benefiting from strong power equipment sales to data centers. Other notable movers in the building and infrastructure distribution space included Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), which hit a new 52-week high after rising 2.9%.
    • Cryptocurrency Recovery: A significant bounce in Bitcoin, which rose back above $70,000, helped lift crypto-exposed stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR), which surged 26%.
    • Consumer Sentiment: A preliminary reading from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment at its highest level since August, while short-term inflation expectations moderated to 3.5%, providing a macroeconomic tailwind for the rally.
    Major Index Performance (Feb 6, 2026)
    IndexClosing LevelDaily Change
    Dow Jones Industrial Average50,115.67+2.47%
    S&P 5006,932.30+1.97%
    Nasdaq Composite23,031.21+2.18%
    Russell 2000 (Small-Cap)2,670.34+3.60%
    Philadelphia Semiconductor (SOX)7,614.64+5.70%
    Key Insights
    • Historic Milestone: The Dow's climb above 50,000 took less than two years after previously hitting 40,000, illustrating the index's resilience despite ongoing "walls of worry".
    • Divergent Tech Moves: While hardware stocks soared, some major cloud and software names struggled. Amazon fell 5.6% as investors worried its aggressive $200 billion AI spending plan would burn through cash and squeeze margins in 2026.
    • Auto Sector Drag: Contrary to the broad rally, Stellantis shares plunged 24% following a $26 billion charge related to scaling back its electric vehicle business.

Friday, February 6, 2026

比DeepSeek风暴还惨烈!一文读懂:华尔街"抛AI"妖风祸从何来?

自2022年年中以来,动量交易员曾以足以让沃伦·巴菲特感到汗颜的夏普比率统治着市场。然而周三,这一切几乎遭遇了全线崩盘——他们蒙受了载入史册的损失。

动量交易简单说来就是“买入最近涨得最好的,卖出涨得最差的”。而根据业内的统计,高盛的“高贝塔”或无约束动量组合(GSPRHIMO)刚刚创下了自2022年以来表现最糟糕的一天,超过了去年1月Deepseek风暴之后的AI抛售潮。高贝塔股通俗而言就是指那些波动比大盘更剧烈的股票。

如果说,周二市场的跌幅源于软件股因人工智能颠覆风险引发的“投降式”抛售,那么周三的疲软则更集中于基本面因素与仓位调整,使得大盘指数的变动相对于底层发生的剧烈动荡,显得具有欺骗性的平稳。

这印证了高盛分析师Lee Coppersmith在上周末文章中的发现,即美股表面平静之下正波涛汹涌。统计显示,标普500指数成分股平均的1周实际波动率,与整体标普500指数波动率之比在上周四刚刚达到6.88——处于2023年以来的第99个百分位。


换句话说,标普500指数成分股的平均波动幅度大约是大盘指数的7倍,这就是为什么近几个交易日部分个股的异动显得异常尖锐,即便标普500指数表面相对平滑的行情掩盖了底层波动的剧烈程度。

市场发生了什么?

那么,究竟发生了什么呢?高盛发现,周三的抛售主要源于多头策略(“过往赢家”组合GSXUHMOM)的严重拖累,该策略倾向于周期性高波动高贝塔主题。




 与高盛观点相呼应的是,摩根士丹利策略师Bryson Williams在周三收盘报告中指出,周三市场交易的核心特征是极端因子逆转,动量因子遭受逾三年最严重回撤。与高盛无约束动量组合类似,摩根士丹利动量组合录得了多倍标准差的下跌,这主要是由多头减持而非对称的去杠杆驱动的,因为投资者正积极减持今年以来的赢家。

市场疲软表现,重度来源于早些时候领涨的拥挤主题:如AI受益股、AI电力、国家安全板块、比特币矿商以及其他高贝塔、高动量的板块——而前期的滞涨板块则在几乎所有领域强劲反弹。


这种“逆AI”动态呼应了周二的分化,同时又彻底反转了市场领导地位:早期周期股、化工、区域银行以及部分大盘防御股表现出色,资金从那些之前最为共识的交易中撤出。

值得注意的是,周三的行情变动并没有明显的“导火索”。高盛指出市场纯粹从追逐最强的盈利预期中进行修正,在此过程中短期技术指标已过度极端化。

更关键的是:极度脆弱的市场结构放大了波动幅度。杠杆ETF再平衡成为主要推手,摩根士丹利估算周三杠杆ETF面临约180亿美元的抛压需求——使当天跻身历史前十之列。抛压主要集中于纳斯达克、科技股和半导体板块,英伟达、特斯拉、AMD、美光、Palantir和美光科技等个股承受显著抛压。

做市商的伽马动态也未能有效缓解压力:尽管做市商在期权市场仍保持Long Gamma头寸,但这一敞口已大幅下降。当对冲策略中的杠杆ETF Short Gamma头寸抵消其影响后,市场实质上呈现净Short Gamma状态,导致抛售压力累积时日内波动加剧。

周三行情尤为特殊之处在于指数与个股表现的脱节。盘中近四分之三个股跑赢标普500指数——此乃历史罕见极端值——而指数本身却持续下行,凸显市场痛苦领域已高度集中。

此外,与此前几个交易日相比,散户参与度明显缺席,这与上周反弹期间乃至昨日软件股领跌时的激进买盘形成鲜明对比。与此同时,机构抛售量虽稳定但未达百分位数极值。这进一步印证了此次交易是仓位调整而非强制清算的观点。

Williams总结道,“周三行情清晰延续了周二浮现的轮动与分散化趋势——重点不再局限于软件板块,而是更广泛的'风险偏好转向逆转'时刻,拥挤的动量策略正遭受猛烈冲击,尽管目前指数层面的跌幅尚可控制。”

高盛同样指出,今年以来表现强劲的板块正经历剧烈反转:存储芯片、稀土及未盈利科技股均回吐了大部分年内涨幅。这也是为什么周三所有动量敞口较高的投资组合均呈下跌态势,而具有负动量的主题则全线反弹。



鉴于高盛Prime Book数据显示净敞口处于高位(过去一年的第89百分位),若赢家板块出现更大规模回调,其造成的损失可能远超常规的板块轮动。

接下来会发生什么?

高盛观察到,在像Deepseek风暴的那个周一、新冠疫苗发布后或其他高sigma的日子里,赢家和输家的基本面叙事都发生了转变。相比之下,本周三更像是波动率升高、技术指标拉满以及主题分化加剧的结果,而一些高成长主题的预期并没有改变。

因此该行交易员认为,从历史经验看,类似周三的动量股回调往往是中期买入良机。然而,在周二周三除零星时刻外,市场尚未出现恐慌性抛售或彻底投降的迹象。鉴于动量策略近期的强势表现及高仓位配置,短期布局对冲仍具合理性。

摩根士丹利交易台的观点大同小异:该行的做空动量组合周三上涨了0.8%。拥挤板块的持仓遭抛售:AI板块下跌8.5%,存储板块下跌6%,AI电力板块下跌8%。


总之,摩根士丹利的Williams表示,所有人都在追问为什么要卖(Williams不认同是因为AMD财报的原因——其财报结果其实非常好)。他怀疑,这可能只是一次VaR(风险价值)冲击,迫使一些多头仓位去杠杆化。

与高盛类似,这位摩根士丹利策略师指出,这通常是买入的好机会,但他会对此保持谨慎,并认为动量和拥挤的多头头寸仍有下行风险……即使周四可能会迎来短期反弹。