Victoria TFSA portofolio - balance history

April 12, 2020

Introduction

I designed my Victoria TFSA portofolio, and the risk management is based on 30% down risk since 60% equity in the balanced portofolio. But in reality the market down swing 15% is much worse to me, and almost I felt the whole world will end and I need to get out. So it is important for me to think in terms of percentage loss of Victoria portfolio.

Case study

I finally learned how to work with Questrade.com balance history and put together day by day into Excel sheet. Here is my final version of balance history from June 1 2019 to April 12, 2020.

My story of bear market 

I like to say that I panic and like to sell on March 16, 2020. And I learned to calm down, do not let my emotion take control. After three days market swing up from March 25 to March 27, I felt that I gained over $4,000 without doing anything,  I decided to purchase oil stock on March 27, 2020.

Timeline

I have to learn how to read my own emotions to hold Victoria portfolio starting from June 2019.

It started party time mood from 12/1/2019 to Feb. 19, 2019.

Feb. 19, 2020  market gain 2.9% <- I like to have party, share good news to every one. Talk to every one about stock

Get nervous, I like to get out. Sell 50% of my equities from March 12 to March 23, 2020.

March 16, 2020 market losses -15% <- I just could not calm down. Think about selling 50% of equity, from $30,000 Canadian dollars to $15,000 dollars <- risk aversion

April 10, 2020 market losses -3.48% <- piece of cake, I learned how market works. Bear market is so challenging, but I should make a few more bets.

Positions on April 12, 2020

My rebalance history

Buy low and sell high, that is the game of investment.

I did some transaction in five days:

No.1 January 21, 2020 - buy low sell low, first time after six month, sell $2000 gain on equity ETF

No.2 Feb. 6, 2020 - buy $13,000 dollars equity fund - transfer money from US banks

No. 3 March 6, 2020 - SPX went down over 15%, all 30% gains from June 2019 to Feb. 2020 is gone. Buy some equity fund.       
    VFV.TO  $1400 purchase

No. 4 March 12, 2020 - SPX went down another 20%.
    VFV.TO  $742.56 purchase

No. 5 March 23, 2020 - SPX went down
    VDU.TO $1060.40 purchase

No. 5 March 27, 2020 - buy oil stocks $2000 dollars


VFV.TO Total $2000 dollars (March 6, $1400, march 12, $742.56)

VFV.TO ETF balance history

Change from balanced to low risk

March 16, 2020

Introduction

It is not easy for me to stay humble, not over-confident on my investment strategy. I got contacted by my friend on March 10, 2020, I was over confident and I did not expect that things can get so serious related to corona virus. I need to make change and stay on the course, but reduce the risk.

Asset allocation

It is so important for me to apply asset allocation instead of timing the market. But after carefully consideration, it is better for me to save some cash in my investment account, and I like to use those cash to hedge against equity asset instead.

Here is March 16, 2020 S & P 500 index:

If  I stay humble, and do not be too greedy, then I will not invest another $13,000 Canada dollars on TFSA in February, 2020. Instead I should show concern about Chinese in China, and learn how to prevent Corona virus spread instead of focusing on SPX return for another year, another 30%.

If I am humble, then when my friend Pamela contacted me on March 10, 2020, I will carefully consider her suggestion, and then adjust my asset allocation, reduce equity from 50% to 25%, with total investment amount over $100,000 dollars.

Now I like to take loss, and sell 25% of equities, and then use those cash to hedge against equity. I do believe that SPX will continue to go down at least 500 points to meet 2000, or 2009 level.

Victoria portfolio - March 16 2020 biggest down swing

March 16, 2020

Introduction

It is so hard to take time to learn how to invest, but I actually like to write topics related to Corona virus and how Canadian should work hard to learn how to prevent spread of virus instead. It is a big loss day, and I like to document the loss and consider carefully to time the market first time.

Case study

The economy is not in good shape, and I read some twitter about Chinese virus. I think that it is so hard for so many people to make a living in this economy hardship.

Actionable Items

It is time for me to consider taking half loss around $4600 dollars. I plan to sell half of VAB.TO, VDU.TO and VFV.TO, and then use those cash to hedge against the equity asset. I do believe that it is possible SPX will go down 2000, or lower as 1400 in 2009.

I also consider that VAB.TO is very volatile, and I like to use cash to hedge against VFV.TO and VDU.TO instead.

Follow up 

April 4, 2020
SPX

Do I have time on my side?

Dec. 23, 2018

Introduction

It was the first personal finance in Nov. 2017. I had chance to review all my 401K and IRA distributions, and then I had chance to review my performance. It was so surprising that I did not take 19 years on my side very well.

It is time for me to write a case study

I have a few excuses to explain to myself I did not spend time to learn and I did not know how to evaluate myself honestly.

The reason I chose the topic since I watched the video Suze Orman at Google 10:00 - 17:00/57, she talked about 401 K and how to have time on your side.

I like to contribute the community how I do, what possible issues I have. What lessons I learn?

Facts to review

I worked Par Siva over a year from 2006 to 2007, I put salary $8000 into my 401 K, employer matched 10%. Total value is $8800, in 2008 the value lost 30%. I sell all funds I purchased, I chose all funds in the plan originally. And I chose the money market fund. The employer took away matching dollars. Now it is 2018, the value is $6100. I did not make any change at all, I should move to index fund once I move to Canada in 2010.

I need to push myself do research on stock, funds and get basic ideas how to invest. Another idea is not to be panic, let it be. Now I must have over $10,000 us dollar at least.

Here is my transaction in my personal finance github.

In January 2009, I noticed that my Canada skilled worker immigration application was denied. In order for me to focus on my immigration, I decided to sell all the funds in par siva 401 K, and purchased money market fund since 2009. Now it will never come back my original investment, after over 10 years, it is still $6100 dollars.

If I sell them and pay 10% penalty in 2009 since I had zero income, I can purchase a one bedroom condo in the city of Yichun. Now the value can go up to 4 or 5 times.

Actionable Items

Dec. 27, 2018, 10:50 AM

One of ideas is to purchase index fund like low cost vanguard index in 2010.

Another idea is to stay in the market, do not sell in 2008; wait it come back until 2018, and then sell some index fund.

Most of important is to catch up learning in theory, watch some youtube.com video; I need to learn something from the economist, Google talk, and understand the basics of personal finance.