Amazon stock study - Oct 26, 2019

两家云服务增速都放缓

24日美股盘后，微软和亚马逊都发布了最新的季度财报。

据《21世纪经济报道》梳理，在截至9月30日的微软2020财年第一季度，该公司的智能云业务表现抢眼，营收达108亿美元，同比增长27%。其中，得益于Azure营收59%的增长，服务器产品和云服务营收增长30%，企业级服务营收增长7%。

不过，尽管本财季Azure营收依然保持了较高的增长，但这一增速继续呈现逐渐放缓的趋势。目前这部分业务营收已连续8个季度增速下降（含持平），上一财年同期增速为76%。

另一方面，亚马逊本财年第三季度的利润同比下降26%，至21亿美元，合每股4.23美元，低于分析师普遍预期的每股4.59美元，这也是该公司自2017年以来首次出现季度利润同比下滑。

与此同时，亚马逊AWS云服务当季营收为90亿美元，略低于分析师91亿美元的预期，其35%的增速也创2015年有数据披露以来的新低。

CNBC报道称，过去4年，亚马逊的大部分营业利润来自AWS云服务，因此这部分业务的增长放缓，可能会拖累该公司未来的收益。

Facts:

亚马逊本财年第三季度的利润同比下降26%，至21亿美元，合每股4.23美元

Bill Miller on Amazon: Stock price could double in 3 years

Here is the article.

Questions:

1. Who is Bill Miller?

2. What is addressable market?

3. Amazon, Facebook, Google, addressable market

4. Global retail market

5. revenue growth and margin expansion -> tremendous performance

6. Vanguard group 23.7 million share, J. P. Morgan Chase, 5.1 million share

Bill Miller on Amazon

Value investor Bill Miller spoke about Amazon at the Delivering Alpha Conference. He’s optimistic about Amazon (AMZN). In August 2016, in an interview with Wall Street Week, he said that Amazon is his best pick in 2016.

According to Bill Miller, Amazon’s addressable market is much larger than Facebook (FB) and Google’s (GOOGL) addressable market. Amazon is tracking the global retail market (XRT). The market has the potential of a trillion dollars. He expects that Amazon will have a tremendous performance with continued revenue growth and margin expansion.

Amazon’s business model

Bill Miller is optimistic about Amazon’s business model. Amazon’s business model is unique—the company is passionate about its customers. In its business model, customer requirements are identified individually. The company focuses on tracking more customers. The business is mainly driven by Amazon Web Services. It always tries to provide new features and new services to its customers. Other e-commerce companies such as Alibaba (BABA) also allow customers to purchase goods online. Alibaba acts as a middleman between sellers and buyers, while Amazon is an immense retailer for new and used goods. Its business model signifies that it has the potential to capture the global (ACWI) (VEU) retail market.

According to the institutional ownership report, Vanguard Group is the largest investor in Amazon with 23.7 million shares. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is the tenth-largest investor with 5.1 million shares.

Amazon’s performance

On a year-to-date basis, Amazon returned nearly 22% as of September 14, 2016. It returned nearly 44% in the past year and 245% in the last five years. The broad-market S&P 500 index (SPY) returned 90% in the last five years. Bill Miller expects that Amazon’s share price could double in the next three years.

Facts

22% as of September 15, 2016, Year-to-date basis
near 44% in the past year (2016, 44%)
245% in the last five years (2011 - 2016)
S&P 500 index (SPY) return 90% in the last five years (2011 - 2016)

2016 - 2019 double -