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A Trader's Journey: Charles Harris

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My personal journey as a stock trader over a 20+ year period of time sharing my highs and lows, the many boom and bust cycles that I've experienced along the way, and the lessons I've learned and continue to relearn. This presentation was originally given at the final IBD Level IV Master's Program workshop in Santa Monica, CA in December 2019. @chasharris1025

My rules

1. Preservation of Capital
2. Sell if stock violates my expectation
3. Trade in-line with my personality

The power of compounding 

Two essential elements:

Investment Return

Time

2003 - 2007 

2001 - 2013

2012 - Mainly house stock 

2014 - TSLA stock 

4 weeks - Oct 60% - down from the peak - 13 years return 

2015 Start to rebuild 

Mental status - post analysis - Recover for remorse 

1:19:47

What exactly is worthiness

Work on with therapist - Work hard on this 

Someone has more than you. 

Sense of worthiness - Figure out what is wrong, but why - post analysis 

25 years journal, trading - deeper - Tiktok - power of vulnerability - study connections - why we are here - give us meaning in our life - Shame - something about me - Universal 

Good enough, smart enough - connection - be active - struggle - courage to be imperfect - willing to let go, who they are - why they decide to take a journey to be a trader 

Relate to trading, ego to protect, hestitate, refuse to cut loss - protection of ego - Look for market to fill some holes - internal conflicts - bad chapter - rebuild - trading, constant opportunities - stakes - possibilities unlimited - 25 years ago, virtual nothing - questions of if, when 

Zone - Roth up 50%, questions - consistent winners - yes? Talk is cheap - Results to speak it itself 

Lose discipline - consistent - Lose - Mental shift - Muscle - consistent winners without good setbacks

Stifel Financial Corp Has $267,000 Stock Position in Sabre Co. (NASDAQ:SABR)

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Stifel Financial Corp cut its position in Sabre Co. (NASDAQ:SABR – Free Report) by 12.0% during the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 72,794 shares of the information technology services provider’s stock after selling 9,903 shares during the period. Stifel Financial Corp’s holdings in Sabre were worth $267,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.

Several other large investors have also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. Envestnet Asset Management Inc. increased its holdings in Sabre by 51.7% during the 2nd quarter. Envestnet Asset Management Inc. now owns 1,672,298 shares of the information technology services provider’s stock valued at $4,465,000 after purchasing an additional 570,197 shares in the last quarter. Earnest Partners LLC grew its holdings in shares of Sabre by 62.6% during the second quarter. Earnest Partners LLC now owns 33,353,912 shares of the information technology services provider’s stock worth $89,055,000 after purchasing an additional 12,838,230 shares during the last quarter. Algert Global LLC increased its stake in shares of Sabre by 44.2% in the third quarter. Algert Global LLC now owns 438,515 shares of the information technology services provider’s stock valued at $1,609,000 after buying an additional 134,340 shares in the last quarter. Creative Planning raised its holdings in shares of Sabre by 9.7% in the third quarter. Creative Planning now owns 2,986,347 shares of the information technology services provider’s stock valued at $10,960,000 after buying an additional 264,026 shares during the last quarter. Finally, AQR Capital Management LLC lifted its position in Sabre by 161.7% during the 2nd quarter. AQR Capital Management LLC now owns 345,977 shares of the information technology services provider’s stock worth $901,000 after buying an additional 213,757 shares in the last quarter. 89.42% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

SABR has been the subject of several research reports. StockNews.com cut shares of Sabre from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Tuesday, December 24th. Sanford C. Bernstein reissued an “underperform” rating and set a $3.00 price target on shares of Sabre in a research note on Tuesday, November 19th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, three have issued a hold rating and one has issued a buy rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock currently has an average rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $3.50.

Sabre Stock Down 1.6 %

Sabre stock opened at $3.67 on Monday. The business’s 50-day simple moving average is $3.73 and its 200 day simple moving average is $3.32. The stock has a market cap of $1.42 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -4.65 and a beta of 1.80. Sabre Co. has a 12-month low of $1.81 and a 12-month high of $4.63.

Sabre (NASDAQ:SABR – Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Thursday, October 31st. The information technology services provider reported ($0.04) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.05) by $0.01. The business had revenue of $764.71 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $774.53 million. During the same quarter in the previous year, the company posted ($0.10) earnings per share. The business’s revenue for the quarter was up 3.3% on a year-over-year basis. As a group, sell-side analysts expect that Sabre Co. will post -0.3 EPS for the current year.

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Michael Platt | Hedge fund market wizards

 I don't have any tolerance for trading losses. Losing money is what kills you. It's the fact that it messes up your psychology. In this game, you want to be there when the great trade comes along. 

Michael Platt 

Hedge Fund Market Wizards

Michael Edward Platt

 Michael Edward Platt (born 18 March 1968)^[1] is a British billionaire hedge fund manager. He is the co-founder and managing director of BlueCrest Capital Management, Europe's third-largest hedge-fund firm^[2] which he co-founded in 2000. He is Britain's wealthiest hedge fund manager according to Forbes, with an estimated wealth of US$18 billion as of December 2024.^[3][1]

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Barron's | OWL stock | Move Over, Banks. Alternative Asset Giants Plunge Into Private Credit.

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A Trader's Journey Part II: Charles Harris | Take notes from transcript

Here is the link.  

17:38

letting the results take care of themselves 2019 turned out to be a

17:44

pretty good year for me that non- margin Roth count was up

17:51

71% I made 332 trades my hit rate was

17:57

69% and my my average holding period was nine trading days now in addition to my wroth I

18:04

decided at that time to refund my margin account with a small amount of money just

18:10

$35,000 it had been years since I traded a taxable account it's hard to build

18:16

wealth when you're splitting the profits with Uncle Sam at the end of each year but I came to terms with that I felt

18:23

that the ability to use margin would provide the opportunity to rebuild faster

18:29

my margin account was up 233% in 2019 I made 238 trades my hit rate was

18:38

68% and my average holding period was also nine trading days there really weren't any huge

18:45

standout stocks twio zscaler Koopa software pindu Doo were a few of my most

18:53

profitable trades and I came back to those stocks again and again I was just

18:58

is consistently locking in small fast gains ranging from the high single digits to around 20

19:05

25% and there were few outliers in the 50% range I I had gone back to my early

19:11

swing trading days taking fast profits and trying to compound my account as

19:16

Summary starting from 17:51 

2019 

1. Margin roth: 71%
2. 332 trades
3. Hit Rate: 69%
4. Holding period: average 9 days
5. Margin account: $35,000 US dollars  233%, 238 trades
6. Twillo, ZS, Coupa, PDD stocks

2020 

1. 11400% return, 114 times, my estiated calculation: 3.5 x 114 = around 350 million dollars
2. 14% swing trade, 84% -> TSLA -> TSLA up 700%
3. All cash at last day of 2020
4. Estimated 10 years, but actually took 2 years. Lost 80% gain from last 10 years before 2018, divorce
5. 21:59 Roth account 400%
6. hit rate 70%
7. TSLA long term hybrid conviction

2020 - 2021

1. Bought a house - a few million dolllars, same amount for redecorating 
2. Roth account, 13 times more
3. Optimism: 2 - 3 years, 9 figure, 1,000,000,000 
4. 20:59 
5. Nov 2021, market downtown started 
6. NSADAQ 38% down
7. SHOP 87% down
8. NFLX 77% down
9. NVDA 69% down
10. ZOOM 90% down
11. Meta 77% down

31:25 

1. Recall APPLE, 62% down around 2008, but a big rebound after 2008 

2022

1. No contingency plan
2. 50% down, wipe out the account - if there is margin on the account 
3. 2022, 115,000 shares of TSLA
4. Add funds, markgin calls - option hedge, buy put options 
5. Margin interest, six figures
6. Defensive measures
7. Wiped out the account 

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A Trader's Journey Part II: Charles Harris

Here is the link. 

17,872 views Nov 2, 2023 SAN FRANCISCO

A continuation of my personal journey as a stock trader in my personal trading accounts over the four year period from 2019 - 2022. This presentation was originally given on September 2, 2023 at an event hosted by a number of the Northern California IBD meetup groups. The original "A Trader's Journey," covers a 23-year period from 1995 - 2018, detailing the arc of my trading career beginning with my first trades as novice investor in 1995 and my development into a professional trader over the ensuing years. I share my many highs and lows, boom and bust cycles that I've experienced along the way, and the lessons I've learned and continue to relearn. The original "A Trader's Journey" was presented at the final IBD Level IV Master's Program workshop in Santa Monica, CA in December 2019. @chasharris1025 @charlesharris

all right hello everyone good morning morning

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知名分析师警告：科技泡沫正逼近“临界点”，当心大型对冲基金抛售

 True Contrarian博客和通讯的首席执行官Kaplan认为，现在美股科技泡沫更大了．．．当前熊市可能已经开始。他还表示，如果像QQQ这样的股票下跌20%，那些价值数万亿美元的基金将同时抛售。

　　2024年即将结束，科技股仍为美股市场提供“火力”， 不过近日，有分析师警告称，美股科技泡沫正逼近“临界点”，大型对冲基金抛售可能就要来了．．．

　　日前，True Contrarian博客和通讯的首席执行官Steven Jon Kaplan重申了自己对科技股的“反向押注”，尽管他的预测尚未实现，但他坚持认为，现在美股科技泡沫更大了。

　　Kaplan曾成功预测了近年来几次科技股的抛售，他的“名场面”包括在2020年疫情大抛售期间建议买入。今年4月，他预测跟踪纳斯达克100指数的交易所交易基金Invesco QQQ Trust Series QQQ将在一年内跌至300点，三年内跌至100点以下。

　　目前，QQQ报529.96点，意味着到明年4月还有近50%的下跌空间。

 

闲聊美股泡沫之APP，PLTR，MSTR

看看今年的疯牛之一的APP，2年它的股价疯涨45倍，当前是120倍市净率……

公告说董事刚卖出15万股（占股本的0.045%），套现5000万美元，而在几天前，也有一个报道说另一个董事套现6000万美元。

而2021年，它的全年利润也才3000万美元，2020年和2022年它分别亏损1亿和2亿。2023年它的业绩出现爆发性增长，赚了3.5亿。2024年前三季度分别赚了2亿，3亿，4亿，根据这公司或是别人估算，未来半年它有望季度盈利高达5亿。之后呢？没人知道。

当前APP的市值超过1100亿美元，它是做什么的？广告营销……

有一个报道说，这个APP有中概股的影子，前几大股东有中文名字的人员，而高管里面，也有中文名字的人。

曾记得几年前有一个中概股，叫魔线，如今一查，这个股票已经退市了，当年曾经暴涨60倍！当年呀，整个富某社区里面，天天有人在给这些股票站台，猛吹它的业绩多好多好，能增长多少多少，它的股价也的确是每个月都在疯涨，共疯涨60倍左右。

尽管两个股票，在市值规模上是相差了几十倍，但两者相似之处都是在做营销，做广告。魔线的退市，相当符合中概股的风格。

而从股价走势上，摩线上市后暴跌90%+，APP上市后也是暴跌90%+。摩线在暴跌之后暴涨60倍，如今APP也是暴跌之后暴涨45倍。而从时间长度来算，APP的周期是摩线周期的2倍，从上市到第一轮底，摩线是约花了16个季度，APP是花了8个季度。而摩线暴涨60倍约为4个季度，那APP暴涨到现在花了8个季度，是否已经见顶？

并不是说APP暴涨到顶是8个季度，而是说，这一种行业的股票的特性，始终摆脱不了经济周期。

APP在第一轮暴跌的时候，正是魔线这类公司跌到退市的那个时期，行业盈利到顶了，谁也拦不住。如果是公司造假，或是故意为之，那就更加会这样（反正这些人呀，在股价高位随便卖一点点股份就能套现整个公司的资产）。

例如APP，公司的净资产也才10个亿，就这几天，那公司2个股东减持0.1%的股份就套现1个多亿的资产出来了，如果它减持1%，就能把净资产给全部套现到手了。如果减持2%就变现一家公司出来，如果减10%，就等于赚了10家这样的公司，然后还能剩90%的股权，可以慢慢玩。

不怀好意的去猜测，都有中文名字的人参与，并且是几乎一模一样的广告营销行业。那个退市了的魔线的工作人员，跟这个APP的工作人员或是高管，或是董事，或是股东们，会否有交集？之间是否是朋友，甚至是同伙？

例如搞芯片业的，台积电的创始人，或是NVDA的创始人，或是AMD的CEO，它们都是有交集的，或许也是先后在某些半导体公司工作过，AMD和CEO和NVDA的CEO都是台湾人。

那这个专门搞广告，搞营销的APP与退市的魔线，有没有可能都是同一伙人搞的？例如当年的暴涨十倍的ZOOM也是中概股，中概股的暴涨暴跌，是更加常态化的。

例如当年的尚乘数科（当年某一天2000多元，市值炒到几千亿美元，现在2.9元），还有它的关联股之一的AMTD（当年100元，现在1元）。

有人解释它们的暴涨暴跌为操控，有人解释为“货源归边”，即流通市场的股份比例相当地低，借用“业绩暴增”的借口，将流通股份暴炒N十倍。看似市值很大，但其实都是自己人左右手倒着玩，只要团伙卖出1%的股份，都能让股价暴跌。

它们靠着“业绩暴增”，来为股价暴涨找借口，实际上，就是业绩赚1个亿，市值增加100个亿，业绩赚10个亿，市值炒高1000亿。而在这个市值增加的过程当中，这些团伙就会套现离场，根据市场的参与者的多少（换手率情况），择机而逃。

MSTR则是一种不断地通过举债，增发股份，冲淡新股东权益来达到原股份增值。这是一种庞氏特征。到下一个财务报表时，就能看到它的负债率会大幅度增加或是公司股份数大增。猜测当没有人跟进时，发债或是增发变得困难时，它的股价就会崩盘。这是庞氏的结局。

PLTR和APP同样是属于盈利极弱，但股价极高，市值极高的股份，它们的下场，最终猜测会类似于当年的MRNA，PAYPAL等股票。即哪天业绩没有大幅增长时，股价就会暴跌。就算是公司能继续盈利，也一样会股价暴跌。市值这么大，随便一减持就能套现或是叫高价变卖整家公司，随便一减持就能赚够它几十年，上百年的经营盈利。并且这个市值规模，找接盘的人群，都会变得不容易。

当年如日中天的INTEL，现在才800多亿市值……

看卖矿的力拓和必和必拓，才1000亿市值左右（并且已经暴涨很多倍）。

那卖武器的洛克马丁和雷神才1000亿市值左右。

一年卖1000万台车的丰田也才2000亿市值。

现在的波音才1000亿市值出头

全球几大基金公司，证券公司，也才1000亿市值左右。

全球几大药厂，或是芯片公司，也才1000亿市值左右。

如果说这几个公司，搞金融？斗得过几大银行，基金，或证券公司？比它们还能盈得多？

如果说这几个公司说有什么军工题材，比得过几大矿山，或是航空航天的几大公司重要？

如果说这几个公司有什么更重要的题材……说起社会价值，比得过这些企业？

依我看，这都不过是一种炒作，炒高套现的炒作。就这点公司，都能卖1000多亿的市值，只能感叹：这些人疯了呀

作者：哈儿9000
链接：https://xueqiu.com/9629093641/316546967?_ugc_source=ugcbaiducard&md5__1038=n4%2BxgDBDnDyDuAQDkDlxGhbzG8YbvhPGQFeYO4D
来源：雪球
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