Sunday, April 14, 2019

Case study: My RRSP scotia US index fund

April 14, 2019

Introduction


It is my personal finance research. I did not purchase RRSP starting from 2010 June. I started the full time job at MP Lighting.com from June 15, 2010. I did not put money away into my RRSP until 2017. I like to do a case study on my RRSP.

Case study


I have to push myself to learn how to manage the retirement account. I did make choice to sell RRSP from money market fund, and then purchase US index fund with 1% management fee.

I also added another $1200 dollar to make it $3,000 dollars. I also choose to purchase $100 dollar one month, now it is $3500 Canadian dollars.

4/14/2019



The price goes up 10% compared to 2011 January $31.00 dollar one share. Based on dollar average research, I will make more profit if the price goes down. I need to think about how to do rebalance. 

2019-01-09

 I decided to sell RRSP in Scotia Canadian income fund, and then I like to take advantage of 10% drop of index fund back in January 2019. 



2019-01-25

I decided to put extra $1200 dollar into RRSP, so I made purchase in 2019 January 25. The price I paid is $31.7064.


2019-04-14

I need to export all the transactions, and I need to do review and rebalance if I need. I am learning Morningstar, and I like to apply the knowledge I learn into my real management of RRSP. 

First, I complained through message to Scotia, I need the product feature to export as .csv file. I need to export into Excel sheet. 

Compared to 2001, I am the smart person. I understand that it takes time to learn and also manage the account. I need to review all transactions, and also I need to do a quarter review. 


Quarterly review


This is the first time I like to do quarterly review of my RRSP account.

2019-01-25  $2942.82, price $31.7064, Share 92.8150
2019-02-01  $100 investment
2019-03-01  $100 investment
2019-04-01  $100 investment

2019-4-14    $3557.42 market value
                     $3242.82 book value
                     $34.93 per share
                     101.8370 share

If I sell it today, I can make profit $315.00 dollars, assuming that I do not need to pay penalty. I learn that it is better for me to continue purchase if the price goes down. I already bet that the market is low in January 2019, so I add extra $1200 dollars into my RRSP.


Case study: Learn how to read the market

April 14, 2019

Introduction


It is my personal finance research. I have a rental condo near Florida Atlantic University in the city of Boca Raton, Florida. This January the student chose to move out after January 2019. I did not offer the lower renter to keep him. Now I like to case study, when to lower the rent monthly payment to keep good renter. I need to learn customer obsession leadership principle again.

Case study


I have to value my time. I remotely manage the condo rental business by myself. I like to lower the cost and also I like to lower the rent fee to help those young Chinese students to get educated in Florida Atlantic University. But somehow I lose track of my goal and my good business analytical skills.

I understand how hard it is for a student to find a place to stay while he/ she goes for college education. They have very good financial support from their family in China.

Another thing I have to do is to push myself to get educated through youtube.com video. How to help and work with young generation to get college education.

Leave a room empty is a biggest waste. This 2019 will be a tough year for me as a landlord.






Need to find a new home for those soldiers

April 14, 2019

Introduction


It is my personal finance research. I have to push myself to learn how to invest my IRA and 401K into stock market, bonds or others. I just let those funds park in the money market starting from 2009. Those funds are my soldiers to help me learn how to retire.

Find a home


I need to learn how to put those IRA CDs a new home. It is tough, I already study personal finance, morningstar video etc. starting from Nov. 2018. I have to think, learn first, and then find a few ideas how to put them in the market.

Three ideas


I need to push myself to come out three ideas how to invest. Learning is fun, and I should take my time. But also it is tough for me since market has bull market almost 10 years. I should wait next recession.


Christine Benz's 6-Step Portfolio Checkup

Here is the link.




420 - 13321 102a Avenue

420 13321 102A AVENUE North Surrey, V3T 1P6
MLS# R2358270 $298,000
Listed by Royal LePage Northstar Realty (S. Surrey)
Bedrooms: Bathrooms: Floor Area: Taxes: Type: 0 1
417 sqft
$866 / 2019 Apartment Unit

Saturday, April 13, 2019

Create a Portfolio You Don't Have to Babysit

Here is the link.

4:14/ 1:02:31

Step 1


weekly contest 132

April 13, 2019

Introduction


It is tough to be a software programmer. I could not control my performance, it is so volatile to perform weekly contest. I only solved one tree algorithm, and then I stuck in the first easy level algorithm.

My performance


It is tough to be a software programmer. I have to push myself to work on more problem solving. Once I stop to practice algorithm, my debugging skills and problem solving skill go down. The first algorithm I spent over 60 minutes, and then I tried to debug the code, I came cross the time out issue.

Here is my performance showing in the following graph. Over 600 people solved all four algorithms in the contest.


I definitely see the issue I have in the contest. I took the time to solve the first easy level algorithm, I use top down approach and need to save intermediate result. But  I forgot to save those intermediate result.

Weakness 

1. I have to work on dynamic programming solution; I have issue on Q1;
2. I have issue to come out dynamic programming solution on Q3;
3. I spent near 10 minutes to read and think Q4, but I chose not to take risk to write code. I am willing to solve any tree algorithm in the weekly contest.

Debugging skills - I need to figure out how to trouble shooting. I need to read my own code instead of depending on Visual Studio debug.

Emotional stress - I feel the stress in the contest, I did not feel comfortable to stuck on easy level algorithm.

Sometimes easy level algorithm is not easy at all. Just embrace it and show some work, even brute force is fine.




Voices Of Experience

Here is the link.


Building Women’s Financial Health: Award-Winning Wealth Advisor Karen Altfest

Here is the link.


Invest Where Others Fear to Tread for Income and Appreciation: Eaton Vance’s Kathleen Gaffney

Here is the link.


Book study: The Big Secret for the Small Investor: A New Route to Long-Term Investment Success

Book summary: ‘The big secret for the small investor’ by Joel Greenblatt


Here is the link of article.

Things I learn from the book summary.

Look into the following concepts:
1. margin of safety
2. discounted cash flow analysis (DCF)
3. present value (PV)
4.

Chapter 1: How to beat the market

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) which says that markets are efficient, and therefore it is not possible to beat the market, other than by luck, is false. Still, beating the market can be very difficult, even for highly intelligent, hard working people who have attended top business schools. The secret to beating the market is in learning just a few simple concepts that almost anyone can master, and that serve as a road map. Even though the concepts needed to be a successful stock market investor are simple and most people can do it, it’s just that most people won’t.

Chapter 2: The secret to successful investing

Margin of safety

The secret to successful investing is to figure out the value of something and then pay a lot less. The ‘a lot less’-part is called the margin of safety. 

The value of a business comes from how much that business can earn over its entire lifetime (20-30 years). (Actually it is better to use cash flow instead of earning, but in the book it is assumed that earnings are a good approximation for cash received.) The earnings need to be discounted to the present, which is called a Discounted Cash flow analysis (DCF) to get the Present Value (PV). 

The problem with a DCF is that 1) it is almost impossible to predict earnings for the next 30 years and 2) small changes in growth rates and discount rates end up making a huge difference in the present value.

Chapter 3: Other valuation methods

Besides a DCF, there are also other ways to determine the value of something. For instance, you can use a relative value, acquisition value or liquidation value analysis. For larger companies with multiple divisions, you can use a different analysis for each division, and then combine the values of the divisions to get a sum-of-the-parts value. But each of these valuation methods has its own drawbacks and difficulties. So the main point is that it is not so easy to figure out the value of a company. And if we can’t determine the value of a company, we can’t determine an amount that we’d be willing to pay where we’d have a margin of safety.

Chapter 4: Capital allocation

An important part of investing is capital allocation: you compare different investment possibilities to find that ones that are most attractive, that is which you think will provide the best risk-adjusted returns. The first hurdle an investment in a stock must pass, is an investment in a 10-year US government bond, for which we assume the interest is at least 6%. The interest rate on a 10-year US government bond, we call the risk-free rate. If the earnings yield (earnings/price) of a stock is much higher than the risk-free rate, then it might be a good investment depending on how certain we are of our estimates of future earnings of the company. If the first hurdle is passed, we can compare the attractiveness of investing on stock A to different stocks. If we can’t make an estimate of future earnings of a company, we just skip that investment.

Chapter 5: Ways in which individual investors can beat the market

If you’d want to beat Tiger Woods, it would be best to choose a different game than golf. If you’d want to beat professional money managers in investing, it is better to choose a style of investing where they can’t or won’t compete with you. Some possibilities are investing in small capitalization companies (small caps), focused investing (where you analyze and invest in just a few companies where you have a special insight or some deeper knowledge) and special situations investing (spinoffs, bankrupties, restructurings, etc.) The drawbacks of investing in special situations, is that they still require a reasonable amount of work and you still need to have some valuation skills.

Chapter 6: Mutual funds

If you don’t want to do your investing yourself, you can invest in mutual funds. Mutual funds come in two flavors: active and passive. In an active mutual fund an manager tries to invest in a basket of stocks that will beat the market. In a passive mutual fund (also called an index fund) the approach is to try to replicate the returns of an index such as the S&P 500 by buying all or most of the stocks in that index. This chapter focuses on active mutual funds. Managers of mutual funds earn money through the fees paid by investors: the more money they manage, the more they generally earn. So managers of mutual funds try to get investors to invest as much money as possible with them, but this effectively excludes them from investing in small caps (especially focused investing in small caps). Focused investing in large caps is still possible, and though this has the chance to outperform the benchmark, it also has the chance to underperform the benchmark for long periods of time. And since investors in mutual funds usually don’t have a lot of patience, they flee the mutual fund before it has the chance to outperform. Since this is not what the managers want, they will generally not invest in a focused way. Investing in special situation is also no option for mutual funds due to a variety of reasons.
Conclusion: some of the most effective ways to beat the market (as explained in chapter 5), can’t or won’t be used by mutual fund managers. Therefore, most mutual funds don’t beat the market, and because of fees, they don’t even match the market. Although there are some superstar managers who manage to beat the market over longer periods of time, 1) it is difficult to finds these managers ahead of time and 2) most investors time their investments in the fund poorly: they come in after the fund has performed well and they leave after the fund has performed poorly, thereby realizing a much worse return than if they had stayed with the fund for a long period of time.

Chapter 7: Index funds

As we’ve seen above, it’s almost impossible for most investors to value companies on their own, and hiring experts (active mutual fund managers) also doesn’t work because most funds underperform the market and it’s very difficult to find that funds that will outperform the market ahead of time. A good alternative is to buy an index fund, like a fund which tracks the S&P 500 index. The advantage is that can be implemented very cost-effectively and efficiently. The problem is that investing this way is fundamentally flawed: since the index is market-cap weighted (the larger the market capitalization of a company, the larger the part of that company in the index), the more overvalued a company is the more overweighted it becomes (and vice-versa). So you end up systematically owning too much of the companies that are overvalued and systematically too little of the companies that are undervalued.
A better alternative to market-cap weighted indexes are equally weighted indexes in which each company has the same weighting. This adds on average 1-2% of return per year over market-cap weighted indexes. The problem with equal weighting is that these indexes can’t handle too much money due to the smaller constituents in the index. Another alternative is fundamentally weighted indexes, where the weighting of a company in an index is determined on the basis of one or more fundamentals like earnings, sales, dividends, book value, etc. This also adds on average 1-2% of return per year, and –unlike equal weighted indexes– it can handle large amounts of money, since larger cap companies are still overweight in the index, and also requires much less trading within the fund. So fundamentally based indexes are a better way to replace market cap weighted indexes than are equally weighted indexes.

Chapter 8: Value-weighted index funds

An attempt to improve upon fundamentally based indexes, is to use the value effect: companies that appear cheap relative to earnings, book value, etc. have been shown to beat the major market indexes by as much as 2-3% per year over long periods of time. So we could design a value-weighted index in which the cheaper a company appears, the larger its weight in the index. And while we are at it, why don’t we add the philosophy of Warren Buffett and Charles Munger to the mix, and look for companies that are not just cheap, but cheap and also good. Trailing earnings yield (the earnings yields based on last fiscal year’s financial data) can be used as a proxy for cheapness and trailing return on capital as a proxy for quality (see ‘The little book that still beats the market’, also by Joel Greenblatt). Had you done this over the last 20 years, you would have beaten the S&P 500 by about 6% annualized (trading costs and market impact modeled, but fund fees not included). When you use a value-weighted index, you not only remove the systematic error that is present in a market-cap weighted index, but you also add to the performance by buying more of stocks when they are available at bargain prices.

Chapter 9: Staying the course

The first part of the big secret for the small investor, is to have the right strategy, which is to invest in companies that are both cheap and good. The second part is that we need to stick to the strategy over long periods of time. This is very difficult for many investors to do, because –as research on the subject of behavioral finance has shown– most investors are practically hardwired from birth to be lousy investors: among other things they are impatient, loss-averse, have a herd mentality, are focused on recent events and are overconfident. As we have already seen above, value investing strategies can underperform the market for periods of multiple years. For very good investors this is a blessing in disguise: if a strategy would work every week, every month and every year, everyone would be a value investor and eventually the strategy would stop working, because in that case the market would be truly efficient. For all other investors, long periods of underperformance are a curse, because they will be tempted to abandon their strategy much too soo and probably at precisely the wrong time.
To help us deal with our human flaws in the area of investing, we need a policy in which we first define what part of our portfolio should be allocated to equities, and then how much that part may vary over time. After we have done that, we need to stick to our policy.
When we combine the strategy and the policy, we have The big secret for the small investor: a new route to long-term investment success.

Joel Greenblatt - Wikipedia

Here is the link.

23:48/ 26:46

Do you have advice for individual investors? Next 10 years.

Risk tolerance - 40%, only 25%
60% on equity

Book:


2 Secrets to Beating the Market. Great Value Investor Joel Greenblatt Explains

Here is the link.


Think Twice Before You Ditch That Laggard Fund in Your Portfolio

Here is the link.


Financial Crisis Survival Lessons: Beats Market & Peers Since Bottom (Ariel Fund)

Here is the link.


Malkiel & Tuchman: Retirement Autopilot

Here is the link.

1:35/ 26:46
Investors' sabotage

Chase hot performance: Buy high
Sell during market declines: Sell low
Not paying attention to investment costs

"One thing I am absolutely sure about is the lower the fee... the more there's going to be for me as the investor."
 - Burton Malkiel

Index fund

2:12/ 26:46
Popular products

Low-cost index funds & ETFs =

31% of fund assets
    vs
14% in 2004

2:44/ 26:46
Barron's
the new face of financial advice

Betterment
Wealthfront
Charles Schwab intelligent portfolios
Vanguard personal advisor services

3:48/ 26:46
Charles Ellis
Rebalance IRA's legendary investment committee member

Investment committe member rebalance IRA
Highly respected investment consultant

Author Winning the losers game

4:04/ 26:46
Burton Malkiel
Rebalance IRA's legendary investment committee member
Investment committee member rebalance IRA
Emeritus Princeton University Economics professor

Author
A random walk down wall street

4:15/ 26:46
Mitch Tuchman

managing director & Co-founder





Harold Evensky

Here is the link.


4 Must-Hear Facts From Legendary Financial Advisor Harold Evensky

Here is the link.

4 Must-Hear Facts from Legendary Financial Advisor

1. Expect low return -> next decade -> 2% annual return
His prediction
2. Be both active and passive
You should do both
Core - index fund
Satellite - try more aggressive strategy

3. Do not invest money you need in next five years
It should not be in stock market. The length of economy cycle.
4. Annuity -

Case study: 10221 133A st North Surrey

April 13, 2019

Introduction


It is my personal finance research. I like to spend some time to document my paper work in Dec. 16 2017.

Case study


I printed out the advertisement for sale of the condo:

Open house Dec 16, 2017, 11:30 am to 1 PM

305 10221 133A st
Maint Fees: $216.00
Tax: $843/ 2017
Floor area: 687 sqft
MLS# R2228207

Asking price: $219,000

facing east, rentals allowed, no pets allowed.


Evensky: Strategies for Securing Your Retirement

Here is the link.


Count hours to watch Morningstar Inc

April 13, 2019

Introduction


It is so interesting to learn that I like to watch the whole day on those videos from Morningstar inc. But I do like to track how many hours I spend in learning.




Benz: Building Your Retirement Portfolio

Here is the link.



Aggressive bucket portfolio


Basic bucket stress test

Portfolio Do's and Don'ts in a Rising Rate Environment

Here is the link.


Quick thinking leads to bad behavior

Here is the link of the article.

Psychologist and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman explores how people process information and the biases that mental shortcuts can create in his book, “Thinking Fast and Slow.” While the book isn’t specifically about investing, it explains why we often do dumb things as investors, and is well worth a read.


Is a Low Volatility Approach Right For You?

Here is the link.




Christine Benz

What  I like to do is to find out top 10 my favorite videos from Christine Benz, morningstar personal finance director on youtube.com.

5 key things:

1. What if I sell this one month ago?
You do not like loss recently. You worry about performance. Volatility, ...

5 Questions to Ask Yourself Before Hitting the 'Sell' Button

Here is the link.


791. Custom Sort String

I wrote a solution in less than 15 minutes. Here is my discussion link.



Friday, April 12, 2019

Mock on-site interview 1

Here is my performance:

I understand that it is the requirement to solve one easy  two medium and one hard level algorithm in two hours.

It is not easy at all. I solved Median of two sorted arrays more than 12 months ago, but today I did not have time to write the solution.

Mock online assessment 2

Here is my performance:

I spent less than 35 minutes for one hour test.

Mock online assessment 1

Here is my performance:


One hour test I did spend near 45 minutes. I solved both questions, but I need to expedite the process and take less time.

904. Fruit Into Baskets

Leetcode mock interview code screen I

April 12, 2019

Introduction

It is the first code screen I did on Leetcode.com.

My performance


Benz: What a Market Downturn Means for Investors

Here is the link.


Case study: 2010 Boca Cerro rental study as a home owner

April 12, 2019

Introduction


It is my personal finance research. I like to push myself to learn how to build wealth and grow rich. There are so many things I can review and one thing I did is to look up gmail emails and share my experience.

Case study


Dated on Sept. 25, 2010, my neighbor in the city of Boca Raton moved out since they bought a town home in 2010.

$80,000 dollars purchase a town house.
3rd Ave near western beef grocery store
town home or villa, last owner purchased on 2006, $240,000 us. dollars
short sale,
They paid $70,000, 100 meters to school
2 bedroom and 2 bathroom
$132 community fee,
water $30.00
cable
electricity
Near Boca Rio
covered parking
$64,000

Actionable Items


I like to case study this short sale again. I like to remind myself how hard it is for me to save $50,000 Canada dollars starting from junior level pay job from the city of Vancouver in 2010, it takes me almost 10 years to save those dollars.

The volatility of real estate market just reminds me that it is not worthy the risk to purchase a condo in Vancouver area right now. I know how hard it is for me to stay the job from 2010 to 2015, and when the sales were not good, and I did see some coworker let go because cutting the cost.

I choose to stay in the city of Vancouver and rent a small room to cut the housing expenses.



Case study: 2018 June Amazon onsite in the city of Seattle

April 12, 2019

Introduction


It is surprising for me to learn the fact that I am not working hard enough on problem solving skills last six months. I did not pass a code screen in March 2019. I like to push myself to hold high standard as a problem solver. I like to case study and figure out some strategies for me to work hard.

Case study



Case study: 2016 June Amazon onsite in the city of Vancouver

April 12, 2019

Introduction


It is time for me to review my problem solving progress on data structure and algorithm problem solving. One thing I can do is to do a quick case study and see my weakness and my potential through the experience.

Case study





Celebrate 382 solved algorithms on Leetcode.com

April 12, 2019

Now it is 8:38 PM, 4/12/2019.

Here is my number:

I like to work hard and one thing I can control is to solve more algorithms on Leetcode.com.

722. Remove Comments

I spent near one hour to work on the algorithm and try to make it work.

I have to push myself hard to solve more algorithms. I need to get ideas how to improve myself in weekday in terms of problem solving on algorithms.






168. Excel Sheet Column Title

I wrote a solution today.

It is tough experience and I like to make sure that I should write easy level algorithm more often. It is such great experience to train myself to write code every day.

I had some issue in the code writing and I need to look up discussion link this time.

Leetcode 54: Spiral matrix

Here is my discussion link.

I wrote a solution today and it is the first time I wrote a discussion post as well.


Case study: neighbor in Florida 2011 town home purchase

April 12, 2019


Introduction


It is my time to review the history of Gmail, I found out that purchase in Florida back to 2010 and I like to write a case study on the case.

Case study



Investing Insights: A Midyear Portfolio Checkup in Five Easy Steps

Here is the link.

I like to push myself to learn more about personal finance before I can make any decision to invest. It is not easy task for me to work on. I like to do more carefully case studies and then figure out what to do next step.


Aggregate Bond Index Returns vs. Stocks and Bonds '80-'17

Here is the link.


Thursday, April 11, 2019

巴菲特:最好的投资的方法是买指数

Here is the link.

追踪标准普尔500指数的指数基金


2008年5月3日在伯克希尔股东大会上Tim Ferriss问:“巴菲特先生,假设你只有30来岁,没有什么经济来源,只能靠一份全日制的工作来谋生,根本没有很多时间研究分析投资,但是你已经有笔储蓄足够维持一年半的生活开支,那么你攒的第一个100万将会如何投资?请告诉我们具体投资的资产种类和配置比例。”巴菲特哈哈一笑回答:“我会把所有的钱都投资到一个低成本的追踪标准普尔500指数的指数基金,然后继续努力工作。”

最好的投资股票方法

巴菲特在1996年致股东的信中说:“大部分投资者,包括机构投资者和个人投资者,早晚会发现,最好的投资股票方法是购买管理费很低的指数基金。”巴菲特在2003年致股东的信中说:“对于大多数想要投资股票的人来说,最理想的选择是收费很低的指数基金。”指数涨幅代表股市投资平均业绩水平,可是为什么过去几十年经济持续增长,股市持续大涨,而大多数投资者却连平均业绩水平都达不到呢?

三个原因






巴菲特说:“我认为这主要有三个原因:第一,交易成本太高,投资者买入卖出过于频繁,或者在投资管理上费用支出过大;第二,进行投资组合管理决策是根据小道消息和市场潮流,而不是根据深思熟虑并且量化分析的公司评估;第三,盲目跟随市场追涨杀跌,在错误的时间进入或退出股市,比如在已经上涨相当长时间后进入股市,或是在盘整或下跌相当长时间后退出股市。”对于指数基金投资,巴菲特有三个具体操作建议。

I made all those three mistakes from my experience from 2001 to 2010. 

第一,交易成本太高
第二,进行投资组合管理决策是根据小道消息和市场潮流,而不是根据深思熟虑并且量化分析的公司评估;
第三,盲目跟随市场追涨杀跌,在错误的时间进入或退出股市

I sold all stock and funds in 2009 when I failed to file Canada immigration case. I chose to focus on my immigration case. I thought that everything I did was not working. 

Case study: Buy high and sell low
追涨杀跌

Case study: 进行投资组合管理决策
I sold all the funds in my IRA in 2008 after I experienced loss. And I decided to move all funds into IRA CD or money market fund. 

Here is the blog to say goodbye to stock market. 

Case study: 30 years learning experience
I also like to share the blog I studied Morningstar vice president's article. 

第一,选择成本更低的指数基金
与那些由基金经理进行主动选股构建投资组合的共同基金不同,指数基金被动追踪股票指数,基本上投资于大部分甚至所有股票,目标是实现相当于市场平均水平的收益率,不用研究选股,因此管理成本明显低于那些主动型共同基金。指数基金的管理费越低,成本优势越大,净收益率越高。

巴菲特说:“我个人认为,如果基金投资者的投资每年要被管理费等吃掉2%,那么你的投资收益率要赶上或者超过指数型基金将会十分困难。中小投资者安静地坐下来,通过持有指数基金轻松进行投资,时间过得越久,自然积累的财富会越来越多。”

  第二,定期投资指数基金
2007年5月7日,巴菲特接受CNBC电视采访时建议投资者定期投资指数基金:“我认为,个人投资者的最佳选择就是买入一只低成本的指数基金,并在一段时间里保持持续定期买入。因为这样你将会买入一个非常好的投资品种,事实上你买入一只指数基金就相当于同时买入了美国所有的行业。”“如果你坚持长期持续定期买入指数基金,你可能不会买在最低点,但你同样也不会买在最高点。”巴菲特在1993年致股东的信中说:“如果投资人对任何行业和企业都一无所知,但对美国整体经济前景很有信心,愿意长期投资,这种情况下这类投资人应该进行广泛的分散投资。这类投资人应该分散持有大量不同行业的公司股份,并且分期分批购买。例如,通过定期投资指数基金,一个什么都不懂的业余投资者往往能够战胜大部分投资专家。一个非常奇怪的现象是,当"愚笨"的金钱了解到自己的缺陷之后,就再也不愚笨了。”

第三,长期投资指数基金
很多人喜欢波段操作,而巴菲特建议长期投资。大量研究表明,个人投资者在把握股市波动时机方面的历史记录很差,因为他们过于热衷于跟踪股价最新涨跌,结果反而更容易在错误的时机进出,经常是高买低卖。

如果你一定要选择买卖指数基金的时机,巴菲特2004年致股东的信中给出建议:“投资人必须谨记,过于兴奋与过高成本是他们的敌人。而如果投资者一定要把握进出股市的时机,我的忠告是,当别人贪婪时恐惧,当别人恐惧时贪婪。”这需要准确的判断和坚强的意志,大多数业余投资者甚至投资专家都难以做到,因此更简单更轻松的办法是长期投资。

2008年巴菲特个人用100万美元打赌:长期投资一只标准普尔500指数基金未来10年内的收益将会“跑赢”Protege公司精心选择的5只对冲基金。2015年2月,Protege公司总裁公开宣布提前认输。

巴菲特的信心来自于历史:20世纪美国经济持续增长128倍,道琼斯工业指数从66点上升到11497点,上涨173倍。即使是过去44年中,标准普尔500指数在75%的年份都是上涨的。 

投资指数基金的缺点
但投资指数基金也不是就可以高枕无忧。与高收益相伴的永远是高风险。虽然指数投资相对于个股投资更安全,但任然会暴露在市场风险之下。例如2001年和2008年的两次股市历史性下跌,导致很多人的退休基金被腰斩,不得不延迟退休计划。

另外一个影响投资收益率的重要因素是税务。在美国,每年需要报投资所得并交资本利得税。这税率收入越高的家庭交的越多,最高可达到39.6%。随着每年复利滚存,每年交税和不交税两种情况的长期收益天差地别。那么有没有投资可以兼具指数投资的优势,规避市场风险,还不需要交税呢?答案可以在阅读原文中找。

How to Use Morningstar's Retirement Portfolios

Here is the link.


Passive Investing - what the Financial Industry doesn't want YOU to know

Here is the link.

Nobody knows nothing.




Passive Investing - The Evidence, Part 7: The Tide Is Turning

Here is the link.


Former Vanguard chief says asset allocation is key

Here is the article.

Sauter worked at Vanguard for 25 years, building its reputation and value. He served as its chief investment officer from 2002 to 2012.

What I learned in 30 years of investing

Here is the link. John Rekenthaler, the author is vice president, Morningstart, Inc.


Fact 1:

In March 1988, I placed $1,000 in my first mutual fund. Since that time, I have left the fund untouched, to accumulate. And accumulate it has. Today, that $1,000 is worth $14,834.

15/01/19

My own story 

I did almost the opposite. In 2001, I bought $3,000 us dollar VIGRX, and then in 2002 I sold as a loss, and then in October I bought an expensive SONY laptop $1800. I killed the everything, the SONY laptop still is in my friend's house in Florida. 


Argument 1:

If stocks return 10% annually and inflation is 3%, it's difficult to go wrong with equities. High costs, mistimed trades, poor manager selection … the mistakes wash away. To be sure, such decisions matter. Best to get them right and maximise one's profits. Nonetheless, the critical decision was to hold stocks. Better to be dumb with equity than smart with bonds.

Exercise 1:


How to Reach $1 Million

Assuming that my health holds up, and that I have no immediate need to spend the money, my first investment could have an effective life span of another 20 years, roughly speaking.

If so, and if the fund were to perform as it has in the past, then that 700% after-inflation increase would become 2,500%. 

Now we're talking. Reaching that hypothetical goal of $1 million, as defined by 1988 dollars, would have required a $40,000 initial outlay. 

Beyond my means at the time, but not an inconceivable sum for somebody in his late 20s.

Of course, this exercise only involves one purchase, with no further activity.

In real life, the stock market mathematics are far easier, because people typically invest on an ongoing basis.

If they do so with equities, stay the course for several decades, and stocks perform anything like they have during my working career, today's young workers will fare well.

In 1988, I bought stocks because I landed a position at an investment research company. Had that accident not occurred, I would not have purchased equities that year, and probably not for many years to come. The blind squirrel stumbled upon the nut.

Will the next generation be similarly fortunate? I have assumed that that future real returns on equities will resemble those of the past. That was what I believed in 1988, and it turned out to be correct. Will 2019's novice investors find that same nut?

The answers to those questions are beyond anybody's pay grade.

We do not, and cannot, know if the soundest investment advice that the next generation can ever receive is what I would instruct my younger self: buy stocks early, and buy them often. However, the subject bears discussion. As I have realized while thinking through my 30-year Morningstar anniversary, the level of stock market returns dominates all else. It is, as the saying goes, the elephant in the room.

Why indexing works - Vanguard

Here is the link.


Jane Bryant Quinn

Here is the wiki article.

How to avoid emotional investing

Here is the article on usnew.com.

"This requires you to set aside your emotions when the market is in a correction or recession," says Michelle Scarver, principal at Exencial Wealth Advisors in San Antonio. "You have to fight your instincts and stay in the market."

The outperformance of the market always exceeds the downturns in the market, Scarver says. She points to a JP Morgan study that shows the average recession is 15 months, while the average market expansion is 47 months.

"If you can remain in the market during the downturns, you will reap the benefits during periods of expansion," Scarver says. "There are more of them, and they are longer."

"You should never rely on emotions when it comes to investing," Shepard


Here are seven strategies to avoid emotional investing.

  1. Stay focused on long-term goals. 
  2. Buy low, sell high. 
  3. Maximize diversification.
  4. Examine your motives for making a shift. 
  5. Take the news with a grain of salt. 
  6. Create a rules-based approach to investing. 
  7. Enlist a trusted advisor. 

How to understand those strategies?

Keywords:
Long term, Buy Low sell high, Maximize, Examine, a grain of salt, a rule-based approach, enlist.

Action words: Stay, Buy, Sell, Maximize, Examine, Take, Create, Enlist.

Stay focused on long-term goals
"Investors need to see the bigger picture and remain long-term oriented. Typically, losses are more likely in the short term, so investors who make emotional, impulsive decisions could hinder the success of their portfolio," Shepard says.

Buy low, sell high
This requires you to set aside your emotions because you're doing the opposite of what the market is doing, Scarver says. "When the market is at a high, people tend to want to enter the market. However, this is the time to sell what has outperformed in your portfolio and buy what has underperformed. To help you buy low and sell high, pick a time once a year to rebalance your portfolio back to your target asset allocation. This forces you to sell what has become overweight in your portfolio and exceeded its target, and redistribute assets that have become underweight in your portfolio that are below target."

Maximize diversification
Instead of chasing home runs that can lead to underexposure or overexposure in any one sector, focus on seeking consistent returns by investing equally across 11 market sectors to protect against extreme market risks, Cook says.

Examine your motives for making a shift
If you're about to make a change in your portfolio, identify why exactly you're choosing to make that change, Vojdani says. "If the buy or sell decision you are about to undertake is because of a short-term market movement, that decision is probably based off emotion and shouldn't be executed," he says. "If your decisions are based on a long-term views and backed with data, that is more often than not a prudent decision."

Take the news with a grain of salt
Dramatic market news can be a factor injecting higher emotions around your investments. "Tuning out the headlines and everyday noise can be a great factor in limiting how often emotions will impact your portfolio," Vojdani says. "Reading insights from trusted sources or consulting with a financial advisor can prove immensely helpful. Also, data such as quarterly earnings and transcripts of quarterly earnings calls that companies share are great sources in making informed decisions."

Create a rules-based approach to investing
"By taking a mechanical approach of setting rules and sticking to them, you can eliminate emotion from the equation," Cook says. "Maintain discipline to limit reactions to the market to when predetermined rules dictate."

Enlist a trusted advisor
Do your homework and work with a coach or advisor that has your best interest in mind, Shepard says. "Emotional trading can cost investors tremendously over a decade, so enlisting the help from a trusted professional will allow an investor to stay on the right track and avoid emotional hiccups," he says.

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

1024 video stitching - weekly contest 131 ranking No. 1

Here is C# solution I wrote based on the study of rank No. 1's code in the weekly contest 131.

1024 video stitching - optimal solution

Here is my solution written in C#.

Prevent Emotions from Undermining Your Portfolio

Here is the link.

I like to learn this topic.

I also like to learn how to read article talking about stock, emotion as well.

Play with words, expression, statements in the following:

Being rational
a more measured approach - measured
loss aversion - take right steps for sound portfolio management
boisterous market

It can prevent you from paring your winners when market are too frothy
frothy
paring

your "winning" securities reverse course
Your emotions can steer you in the wrong direction.

foible



How Savings "Buckets" Can Help You Reach Your Goals

Here is the link.

Many people are familiar with using buckets as a method for retirement income planning. It's a simple strategy for managing money over a multi-year period, and helps you to apply an appropriate asset allocation for money you will need in a few months, a few years, in 10 years or more. Here's how it generally works:
  • Bucket 1: This bucket typically holds one to two years' worth of living expenses, invested in traditionally more stable vehicles such as cash, certificates of deposit, money-market funds or short-term Treasury bonds. Putting money you plan to spend soon into liquid, generally low-volatility investments can help you avoid having to sell riskier investments, such as stock, in a down market to raise cash for living expenses. This bucket should be refilled annually.
  • Bucket 2: This typically holds money that you expect to need within three to 10 years, invested in intermediate-term assets with a focus on growth and capital preservation.
  • Bucket 3: This bucket typically holds money that you expect to need in 10 years or later, invested for growth and income.

I like to apply three buckets as well. 


5 Steps to Manage a Windfall

Here is the link.


How to Determine Your Risk Tolerance Level

Here is the link.


Tuesday, April 9, 2019

Pat Dorsey: "The Little Book that Builds Wealth" | Talks at Google

Here is the link.


Pat Dorsey

Here is the page of morningstar titled About Pat Dorsey.


How to Hunt Down Long term Dividends

Here is the link.


How to Choose Dividend Stocks - Morningstar Video

Here is the link. Dividend investing Josh Peters

The dividend drill - evaluating dividend stocks

Is the dividend safe?
 . Balance sheet
 . business growth
 . payout ratio

Will the dividend grow?
. Can it grow?
. Management's stance

What's the return?
. Dividend yield
. Dividend growth





Investing Insights: Last-Minute IRA Tips, Steady Dividend Payers, and More

Here is the link.


How Bonds Changed the World, and How They'll Shape Your Financial Future

Here is the link.


Some bond funds pay a regular income to the investor, and those funds will have the tag ‘Dis’ or ‘Inc’ in the name, shorthand for Distributing or Income funds. Funds that don’t pay income are usually tagged ‘Acc’, shorthand for Accumulation. All the performances for funds in this article are based on total return, meaning that if income is paid then it is considered to be reinvested.

To summarise, perhaps the most important decision made with any portfolio is the percentage allocation to the bond asset class, and that will depend fundamentally on the investor’s risk profile and time horizon.

Within the bond segment, diversification is still key and global market factors will additionally have an impact on what bond classes are selected. Disciplined rebalancing helps counter emotional mistakes that investors make, and automates the process of buying when specific asset class prices are relatively low and selling when they are relatively high.


Christine Benz’s Midyear Portfolio Checkup

Here is the link.

Case study: Asset allocation

April 8, 2019

Introduction


It is my short research. The topic is called asset allocation. I like to figure out what I should do in order to build wealth and grow rich. I need to learn basic emotional traps I will fall into if market swings.


Monday, April 8, 2019

Asset Allocation – What the Research Says

Here is the link.


Roy Walker IFA - Financial Adviser in Dubai

Here is the list of posts for me to read.


Warren Buffet on Hamburgers

I’m saving for the long term - should I be worried if share prices fall?
“A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves.

“But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period?

“Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the ‘hamburgers’ they will soon be buying.

“This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.”

Asset Allocation for the Ordinary Investor

Here is the link. Here is the website to read.


Investment 

  core
  satellite

Part I: Core
Three parts - cash, bonds, equities
We adjust the equities based on the market

Part II: Satellite

a few things in Satellite:
Gold, Property, Commodities, Emerging market, themed, Alternative


Ideal 60% Core, 40% Satellite

Bonds 50%  Equities 15%

Next step: Rebalancing


Actionable Items


I do believe that I understand the idea quickly how to rebalancing. Force us to sell high and buy low.



Vanguard’s approach to market volatility

Here is the link.


Build a diversified portfolio with an asset allocation that's right for you

Here is the link.

Tip 1:

Vanguard total market index fund - before 3:00 minutes

Tip 2:

Risk tolerance - understand your risk tolerance, do not get emotion on it.

Tip 3:

Inventory check, risk tolerance, if market swing, how to react the market.


12:20 Asset allocation
Equities increase both expected return and volatility



Sunday, April 7, 2019

A Tax-Efficient Hierarchy of Retirement Spending

Here is the link.

What's the Right Way to Approach Rising Rates?

Here is the link.

These maps show how much Metro Vancouver home prices have dropped (INFOGRAPHICS)

Here is the link.

John H. Cochrane

Here is the link.

I like to spend 30 minutes to study the publication of the professor.

Here is the interview I like to watch later on.


Unraveling the Mysteries of Money - Morningstar Video

Here is the link.


Benz: What To Do With Unneeded RMDs

Here is the link.


Guard Against These 3 Nonfinancial Retirement Risks

Here is the link.

5 To Dos for Retirees as Volatility Returns

Here is the link.

1. Keep recent losses in perspective   0:30/ 6:17
2. Revisit your asset allocation 1:25/ 6:17
3. Check up on liquid reserves and high-quality bonds 2:37/ 6:17
4. Assess your spending rate.  4:10/ 6:17
5. Do sweat the small stuff.     5:00/ 6:17


How Vanguard's advice service works

Here is the link.


Dailpad Vancouver office

April 7, 2019

Introduction


It is so nice to learn that more statup company opened office in the city of Vancouver. I like to spend 30 minutes to do some research about dialpad.com.

Baidu search


Here is the article I like to read.




Vanguard's Principles for Investing Success

Here is the link.

25:00/ 1:00:15

Should we wait until market goes down and then get in?

57:11 /

Question: Advice how to get back to the market after 2008? I was afraid to get back to the market after 2008. Baby step to suggest for Nancy.

Answer:
Go back to your goal. You will not have enough for your goal. The important is asset allocation. Who knows the market will go. What is your exposure?