Wednesday, April 1, 2020

How to Prepare for a Recession

Here is the article.

Here are highlights:


  1. GDP (gross domestic product) lasting two consecutive quarters or longer
  2.  On a technical basis, the economy returned to growth in the second half of 2009, and the unemployment rate peaked four months later.
  3. Unemployment would remain at or above 9% for two more years and didn't return to the prerecession rate of 5% or below September of 2015. That's six years of high unemployment.
  4. Item 3, more explanation: even though the recession was technically over, a slow jobs recovery meant millions of Americans continued to struggle mightily.
  5. Unfortunately, one of the biggest mistakes people make during a recession is to sell their stocks or stock-based mutual funds, often after the market has already fallen sharply, expecting it to fall even more. Sadly, this rarely results in savvy "buying at the bottom" for most people. More often, the stock market starts to recover before people are ready to reinvest, resulting in them missing out on the market's recovery.
  6. Owning bonds is a great way to hedge your risk from that volatility for the part of your portfolio you may need to sell in the next few years.



Are You Ready to Buy Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and NCL?

Here is the article.


Here are highlights:

  1. The next few quarters will be brutal for the industry. You can't make money if you're not generating any revenue.
  2. Analysts feel that Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and NCL have at least five to six months of liquidity available before they need to raise capital to stay afloat.
  3. Things look grim, and investors attracted to the beefy payouts may get burned. 
  4. Royal Caribbean earning as little as $1.33 a share in 2021 after losing more than $3 a share this year. 
  5. These stocks would now have to more than triple to get back their peaks, and under kinder climates they may be able to beat the market in the next couple of years on the way there.
  6. The bar has also never been lower to come through with market-thumping returns.  


Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Lines Not Part of $2 Trillion Bailout

Here is the article.

Here are highlights showing what I learn from reading:


  1. Banks will want a piece of the pie
  2. All three companies were profitable in 2019. 
  3. None of the cruise lines, however, are registered as U.S. businesses, nor are the majority of their employees Americans.




3 Reasons Norwegian Cruise Line Stock Should Outperform Carnival and Royal Caribbean

Here is the article on March 31, 2020.

Here are highlights:


  1. Norwegian Cruise Line is the smallest;
  2. NCLH is an enterprise value of $9.4 billion, less half of top two cruise lines;
  3. Royal Caribbean commanded a yield of 9% at Friday's close, and industry leader Carnival is turning heads with its 13.9% yield. 




Valley's low-wage employees unable to work at home, face rent challenges

Here is the article.

Among workers who earn $100,000 or more annually, 51.7% say they can do their jobs from home. At the same time, remote work is possible for just 15.3% of those who earn $25,000 per year or less, said Chris Salviati, a housing economist for Apartment List and author of the study.

Eviction delays


On March 24, Ducey issued an executive order delaying the enforcement of eviction for renters impacted by COVID-19. The order applies to renters who are COVID-19 quarantined or facing economic hardship as a result of the pandemic. It will remain in effect for 120 days.

Ducey's action aligns with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's March 18 suspension of all evictions for HUD-financed properties. Also on that day, the Federal Housing Finance Agency directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to suspend foreclosures and evictions for at least 60 days as a result of the coronavirus national emergency.

Actionable Items


Ask questions: 



Largest Cruise Line Companies

Here is the article.

I like to read at least a few hours before I decide to purchase 10 shares of cruiseline stocks.

Today biggest loser stocks are crusieline.





April 1, 2020 - a day off after 7 day vacation

April 1, 2020

Introduction


It is hard for me to determine what I should do every day after 7 days vacation. I decided to take one day off and then continue to study stock market and also learn more about coronavirus.

A day off


I need to come out some plan for whole day. I like to work on something important in terms of investment, finance, book keeping, and also I need to go out and run 4 miles some time later.


Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Why The U.S. Probably Won’t Run Out Of Food During Coronavirus

Here is the link.


More than 200,000 requests for mortgage deferrals sent to Canadian banks in wake of COVID-19 pandemic

Here is the article.

Today, the Canadian Bankers Association revealed that more than 213,000 requests have poured into the six biggest chartered banks.
BNN Bloomberg has reported that this accounts for about 4.5 percent of all of their home mortgages.



Case study: tips to solve binary search tree shared by the interviewee

The interviewee had super good performance. He solved two algorithms, and one with optimal solution idea. He also shared with me his idea how to write bug free code for search in rotated sorted array. I do believe that he makes good suggestion.

1. Check loop invariant
2. Move the array with one node, two nodes, or three nodes outside while loop, as long as it is working. The good about solution is easy for you to check all edge cases.

Case study: check completeness of binary tree

Here is the gist.

The interviewee wrote the excellent idea to figure out the completeness of binary tree. His idea is to calculate total nodes in the binary tree first, and then assign each node with a value based on the structure of tree, the root node has value 0, and left child is parent node's value * 2 + 1, right child is parent node's value * 2 + 2. And then if it is a complete binary tree, all nodes value should be in the range of [0, totalNodes - 1]. Apply preorder travesal, and check if node's value is smaller than total nodes.


Case study: search in rotated sorted array

March 31, 2020

Here is the gist.



Canada's big banks have already fielded 213,000 requests for mortgage deferrals under coronavirus-relief plan

Here is the link.


GE Aviation will layoff 10 percent of U.S. workforce, furlough staff in maintenance, repair and overhaul

Here is the link.


GE Aviation will layoff 10 percent of U.S. workforce, furlough staff in maintenance, repair and overhaul

Here is the link.


'Prices are not going to go higher': COVID-19 expected to put chill on spring housing market

Here is the article.


BBB级息差 - one term a time - Third blog

Here is the article. 

Here is the article I like to take some notes.

这是2018年资本市场上的一个热门话题。一旦不可避免的经济放缓袭来,一大批投资级别范围内评级最低的公司债券,就可能身处降级为高收益债券的边缘,这是对垃圾债券的一种委婉表达。

公司财务人员及银行家都是机会主义者。当投资者需求强劲时,他们便将新债券推向市场,而在需求疲软时则有所保留。

THE BOND-MARKET PANIC THAT WASN’T

Here is the article.

BBB级息差 - one term a time - Second blog

Here is the article I like to take some notes.


Dudley point out in the following:

第二个长期风险是美国公司债台高筑,尤其是BBB评级和高收益债评级的公司。最近几年,美国企业充分利用低利率的市场环境和公司债信用利差走低带来的好处扩大杠杆比率,信用质量不断下行。很多大公司管理层的思维逻辑很简单,借更多的钱,回购更多的股票。结果导致股票的流通量减少,每股收益因此增加,股价得到提升。
在经济持续扩张期间,这种做法会带来极度舒适。但是正如Ed McKelvey和我在二十年前所写到的,经济周期的长期化也有不好的一面。如果经济衰退发生的次数变得比以前少,当衰退最终到来时所产生的负面影响也会变大,这就不可避免地给金融市场带来更大的冲击。最近几次经济衰退,诸如2000-2001年期间的高科技股泡沫破裂以及2007-2009年期间的金融危机给金融体系带来的不稳定程度超过了以往的经济下行期间。

Fact No. 1
BBB级公司债在美国全部投资级公司债余额中的占比自2008年经济危机以来一路上扬,如今为55%。
BBB rating is dangerous
在投资级债券中BBB级的地位最低,距离被踢出投资级债券的圈子仅一步之遥。即便如此,那又怎样?失去投资级债券的资格并落到高收益债的圈子里好比一夜回到解放前,发行人的融资成本会升高,合格买家的数量也会减少。
Case study
BBB级公司债是投资级债券中的最低档,一家公司的信用评级需要至少两家评级机构均作出降级决定后才会被降至高收益债级别,也就是BB+或以下的级别,这种情况一旦发生,专门投资某类债券指数的投资者会由于投资范围无法覆盖垃圾债而被迫抛掉被降级的公司债。如果某一只债券只有两家评级机构给予评级,但只有一家机构建议降级至垃圾债级别,那么某些限制条款的存在可能也会导致被迫清仓情况的发生。”


Yahoo finance: biggest winning stocks today

March 31, 2020

Introduction


I like to get to know how yahoo finance webpage with this matching stocks search results, how good it is to show sorting info using ^ or downward icons. I also like to look into what stocks go up today, and ask myself why.

March 31 2020 biggest winner

Matching Stocks1-25 of 246 results
Share
Results were generated a few mins ago. Pricing data is updated frequently. Currency in USD
Symbol
NamePrice (Intraday)Change% ChangeVolumeAvg Vol (3 month)Market CapPE Ratio (TTM)52 Week Range
CNQ
Canadian Natural Resources Limited13.55+2.42+21.74%23.661M4.492M16.086B5.87
PE
Parsley Energy, Inc.5.73+0.92+19.13%14.799M9.066M2.365B9.14
CVE
Cenovus Energy Inc.2.0200+0.3100+18.13%15.403M7.095M2.49BN/A
SU
Suncor Energy Inc.15.80+2.38+17.73%24.477M6.831M24.288B6.97
CX
CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V.2.1200+0.2900+15.85%21.557M10.359M3.203B23.56
MPLX
MPLX LP11.62+1.56+15.51%7.651M5.174M12.299B11.62
NBL
Noble Energy, Inc.6.04+0.73+13.75%13.366M10.146M2.93BN/A
FANG
Diamondback Energy, Inc.26.20+2.61+11.06%5.473M3.797M4.147B17.85
TECK
Teck Resources Limited7.56+0.65+9.41%5.711M5.761M4.194B1.69
OKE
ONEOK, Inc.21.81+1.77+8.83%10.262M4.868M9.014B7.10
DVN
Devon Energy Corporation6.91+0.56+8.82%14.573M9.508M2.646BN/A
MOS
The Mosaic Company10.82+0.82+8.20%7.689M6.277M4.098BN/A
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.6.75+0.51+8.17%34.016M30.294M9.794BN/A
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.32.17+2.40+8.06%25.993M9.678M6.724B3.59