Bill Ackman turned $27 million into $2 billion betting against the corporate bond market. Time and time again he has proven the doubters wrong. Full disclosure, Ackman was a personal mentor of mine several years ago. Naturally, my opinions about him are slightly biased. For more information check out www.myalphalens.com. Our team provides access to weekly research reports. Never miss another major trade ideas!
Here is the link.
credit default swap - 2.6 million
leveraged - retail investor - over multiple years - trade, OTC market, private
Incredible bet, CNBC, unwind ... his purchase of starbuck, 7 positions, offset the risk, another bet on collateral, credit default ...
Friday, April 10, 2020
OVV.TO 100 share investor - Naive Canadian investor Julia
April 10, 2020
It is so interesting for me to do research and I do not know what stocks I will purchase until I noticed that I purchased 100 share OVV.TO and the market change is up over 60%. I need to read the statements and look into what industry OVV.TO is up to.
I have to spend 10 to 20 minutes to read about OVV.TO stock. Questrade.com has a nice feature for me to look into the company and volume/ price day by day.
I copied the news from Questrade.com dated March 9, 2020.
Based on my research, now OVV.TO is better than Ford in terms of credit rating. In other words, OVV.TO is BBB, but Ford is below BBB which is high yield bond.
My biggest concern is if OVV.TO will go bankrupt or not. Since 2 billion credit is secure before 2024, I am sure that I will not lose all the value of initial investment.
Otherwise it is ok for me to wait a few years to come back to $10 to $15.00 dollars. I am investing for my retirement and hopefully I can learn better and have more experience as an investor later on.
Introduction
It is so interesting for me to do research and I do not know what stocks I will purchase until I noticed that I purchased 100 share OVV.TO and the market change is up over 60%. I need to read the statements and look into what industry OVV.TO is up to.
Case study
I have to spend 10 to 20 minutes to read about OVV.TO stock. Questrade.com has a nice feature for me to look into the company and volume/ price day by day.
A good investor should read ...
I copied the news from Questrade.com dated March 9, 2020.
DENVER, March 9, 2020 /PRNewswire/ - Ovintiv Inc. ((NYSE, TSX:OVV) today provided additional information related to its strong capital structure and liquidity. In addition, the Company has great flexibility to quickly adapt operations to changing market conditions.
"In addition to our liquidity, we have substantial operational flexibility and a track record of driving cost reductions across the business," said CEO Doug Suttles. "We will be reducing our near-term capital spending to ensure we maintain free cash neutrality in the current market conditions. When combined with cost savings, we are confident that we can do this while maintaining the scale of our business."
Balance Sheet & Liquidity:
- $4 billion credit facilities recently renewed through July 2024. No reserve-based, cash flow, EBITDA lending covenants or minimum credit rating requirement. The facilities are based on book value only (not market capitalization) with a maximum ratio of 60% debt-to-adjusted capitalization (at year-end 2019, ratio was 28%). The capitalization calculation adjustment includes a fixed $7.7 billion add back to capitalization. Full terms can be found as an exhibit to the Company's Form 10-K.
- Current liquidity is approximately $3.5 billion, which represents the $4 billion credit facilities plus cash-on-hand, less the current commercial paper balance.
- OVV is currently rated investment grade at BBB.
- Approximately 80% of total long-term debt is due in 2024 or later with a weighted average bond maturity of approximately 10 years.
- The Company has significant flexibility to manage the late 2021 and 2022 maturities, including the use of the credit facilities.
Actionable Items
Based on my research, now OVV.TO is better than Ford in terms of credit rating. In other words, OVV.TO is BBB, but Ford is below BBB which is high yield bond.
My biggest concern is if OVV.TO will go bankrupt or not. Since 2 billion credit is secure before 2024, I am sure that I will not lose all the value of initial investment.
Otherwise it is ok for me to wait a few years to come back to $10 to $15.00 dollars. I am investing for my retirement and hopefully I can learn better and have more experience as an investor later on.
Key largo portfolio showcase - June 12 2019 to April 10 2020
April 10, 2020
It is important for me to learn how to manage my emotion when market swings, I was so happy to share good news when the market went up, I felt so good to share news with runners on burnaby central middle school running court. But the market went down, I felt so depressed and worried about my emotions, mental health. Why should I experience the stress of bear market? The most important is to learn how to build muscle memory, analytical skills, I have to learn how to be a passive long term investor.
Here is my Key largo IRA USA portfolio. I had panic sell in January 2009 market bottom - 15 years low, and then I put it back on June 2019. In less than 12 months, I experienced bear market since I did not have experience like experienced hedge fund manager. I felt panic and buy and sell stock went into my dream, from March 10 to March 16 I had to handle full time work, coronavirus concern and investment market swings.
But good news is that I survived and learn to be a passive investor. Meanwhile I also learned to invest individual stocks.
Here is my github folder containing my analysis from Ameritrade.com.
I designed my portfolio using this balance portfolio idea. Here is the blog.
When market swings like March 12, down 7.99%, March 16 6%, I should take two days off and then stay at home, figure out what to do.
Three days from March 24 to March 26 has market change of 8.4% in total, 4.69% on March 24, 2020, 1.85% on March 25, 3.07% on March 26.
I have four accounts to purchase SPX ETF, I should sell and realize profit instead of choosing all of accounts going through bear market in the same time.
2/19/2020 21,371.48
3/20/2020 17,234.00 -> market change from highest point 2/19/2020 $4132.00 US dollars
I need to think about those people rush to sell, hedge fund manager, institution investors, those people with million dollars 401 K or IRA, like FANG senior engineers, and those panic sellers buy high and sell low.
Hedge fund managers - Feb. 24, Feb. 25, Feb. 27
Self-managed huge amount investors (401K, IRA account holders), ETF algorithm trigged, like 100% on equity fund, March 9, 2020
March 16 - panic sell, take loss <- I was depressed and worried, I planned to take one day off, sell 50% of equity I had whatever account I had.
I did not listen to my emotions, and stay on the course, rebalance, purchase some equities instead.
It is such a better product feature called balance history, I just used it first time to track last two month market swings and show friends on wechat group.
Introduction
It is important for me to learn how to manage my emotion when market swings, I was so happy to share good news when the market went up, I felt so good to share news with runners on burnaby central middle school running court. But the market went down, I felt so depressed and worried about my emotions, mental health. Why should I experience the stress of bear market? The most important is to learn how to build muscle memory, analytical skills, I have to learn how to be a passive long term investor.
My showcase
Here is my Key largo IRA USA portfolio. I had panic sell in January 2009 market bottom - 15 years low, and then I put it back on June 2019. In less than 12 months, I experienced bear market since I did not have experience like experienced hedge fund manager. I felt panic and buy and sell stock went into my dream, from March 10 to March 16 I had to handle full time work, coronavirus concern and investment market swings.
But good news is that I survived and learn to be a passive investor. Meanwhile I also learned to invest individual stocks.
Here is my github folder containing my analysis from Ameritrade.com.
I designed my portfolio using this balance portfolio idea. Here is the blog.
Actionable Items
When market swings like March 12, down 7.99%, March 16 6%, I should take two days off and then stay at home, figure out what to do.
Three days from March 24 to March 26 has market change of 8.4% in total, 4.69% on March 24, 2020, 1.85% on March 25, 3.07% on March 26.
I have four accounts to purchase SPX ETF, I should sell and realize profit instead of choosing all of accounts going through bear market in the same time.
2/19/2020 21,371.48
3/20/2020 17,234.00 -> market change from highest point 2/19/2020 $4132.00 US dollars
How to read the data?
I need to think about those people rush to sell, hedge fund manager, institution investors, those people with million dollars 401 K or IRA, like FANG senior engineers, and those panic sellers buy high and sell low.
Hedge fund managers - Feb. 24, Feb. 25, Feb. 27
Self-managed huge amount investors (401K, IRA account holders), ETF algorithm trigged, like 100% on equity fund, March 9, 2020
March 16 - panic sell, take loss <- I was depressed and worried, I planned to take one day off, sell 50% of equity I had whatever account I had.
I did not listen to my emotions, and stay on the course, rebalance, purchase some equities instead.
Thank you Ameritrade make investors easy to manage history
It is such a better product feature called balance history, I just used it first time to track last two month market swings and show friends on wechat group.
Key largo IRA portfolio two month crash summary
April 10, 2020
It was so tough for me to manage the portfolio Key largo, and the swing is up near $2000 dollars, and down $2000 compared to my book value in May 2019. I like to write a blog how to go through market swing, no panic sell in the market bottom, do not buy high and sell low.
I have to spend time to explore Ameritrade.com and see what report I can generate. It took me 10 minutes to generate report.
Here are highlights:
Introduction
It was so tough for me to manage the portfolio Key largo, and the swing is up near $2000 dollars, and down $2000 compared to my book value in May 2019. I like to write a blog how to go through market swing, no panic sell in the market bottom, do not buy high and sell low.
Case study
Balance history
I have to spend time to explore Ameritrade.com and see what report I can generate. It took me 10 minutes to generate report.
Here are highlights:
- Look the above image, there is balance history download button;
- Customize the data range
- Open Excel sheet, and then it is easy for me to generate the report.
Key largo IRA portfolio - April 10, 2020
April 10, 2020
It is a good habit for me to learn from the market. I spent one hour to make purchases of those coronavirus distressed industry, and I like to start to own those stocks. I like to learn how business works, and stay optimistic how people solve those problem. The Coronavirus portfolio was set up on April 9, 2020 with $640 US dollars.
Here is my portfolio.
Here is the blog I did some study and prepare to purchase. The article used for my research is listed in the second blog.
Airlines
DAL, 2 shares, $23.23/ share, less than $50.00 dollars
AAL, 4 share, $11.33/ share, less than $50.00 dollars
LUV, 4 shares, $34.30/ share, less than $140.00 dollars
Cruiselines
CCL, 5 shares, $11/99/ share, less than $60.00 dollars
RCL, 2 shares, $37.56/ share, less than $80.00 dollars
NCLH, 5 share, $11.72, less than $60.00 dollars
Hotel and resorts
H (Hyatt), $51.40, 1 shares, $51.40 dollars
MGM, $15, 4 shares, $45 dollars
EXPE, $60.55, 1 share, $60.55
9 stocks are purchased, and the total shares is 28. The amount is US dollars $641.54.
I like to explore Ameritrade.com and see what I should look into.
Introduction
It is a good habit for me to learn from the market. I spent one hour to make purchases of those coronavirus distressed industry, and I like to start to own those stocks. I like to learn how business works, and stay optimistic how people solve those problem. The Coronavirus portfolio was set up on April 9, 2020 with $640 US dollars.
Case study
Here is my portfolio.
Here is the blog I did some study and prepare to purchase. The article used for my research is listed in the second blog.
Airlines
DAL, 2 shares, $23.23/ share, less than $50.00 dollars
AAL, 4 share, $11.33/ share, less than $50.00 dollars
LUV, 4 shares, $34.30/ share, less than $140.00 dollars
Cruiselines
CCL, 5 shares, $11/99/ share, less than $60.00 dollars
RCL, 2 shares, $37.56/ share, less than $80.00 dollars
NCLH, 5 share, $11.72, less than $60.00 dollars
Hotel and resorts
H (Hyatt), $51.40, 1 shares, $51.40 dollars
MGM, $15, 4 shares, $45 dollars
EXPE, $60.55, 1 share, $60.55
9 stocks are purchased, and the total shares is 28. The amount is US dollars $641.54.
More reports
I like to explore Ameritrade.com and see what I should look into.
Balance history
I like to write down my panic sale experience, and I learned from this stock market crashes and built muscle memory about how to deal with loss, panic and anxiety.
One tip a time - system design website
April 10, 2020
It is so challenge for me to push myself to learn better about system design. One of actions is to work as a system design interviewer on interviewing.io. I started to learn my weakness about communication, I have chance to interview best engineers and learn how they approach problems.
I have chance to interview an engineer who works for FANG company. I asked him to share me his tip to prepare system design.
Here is the link.
Introduction
It is so challenge for me to push myself to learn better about system design. One of actions is to work as a system design interviewer on interviewing.io. I started to learn my weakness about communication, I have chance to interview best engineers and learn how they approach problems.
One tip a time
I have chance to interview an engineer who works for FANG company. I asked him to share me his tip to prepare system design.
Here is the link.
One tip a time - System design template
April 10, 2020
It is so challenge for me to push myself to learn better about system design. One of actions is to work as a system design interviewer on interviewing.io. I started to learn my weakness about communication, I have chance to interview best engineers and learn how they approach problems.
I have chance to interview an engineer who works for FANG company. I asked him to share me his tip to prepare system design.
Here is the link.
Introduction
It is so challenge for me to push myself to learn better about system design. One of actions is to work as a system design interviewer on interviewing.io. I started to learn my weakness about communication, I have chance to interview best engineers and learn how they approach problems.
One tip a time
I have chance to interview an engineer who works for FANG company. I asked him to share me his tip to prepare system design.
Here is the link.
(1) FEATURE EXPECTATIONS [5 min]
(1) Use cases
(2) Scenarios that will not be covered
(3) Who will use
(4) How many will use
(5) Usage patterns
(2) ESTIMATIONS [5 min]
(1) Throughput (QPS for read and write queries)
(2) Latency expected from the system (for read and write queries)
(3) Read/Write ratio
(4) Traffic estimates
- Write (QPS, Volume of data)
- Read (QPS, Volume of data)
(5) Storage estimates
(6) Memory estimates
- If we are using a cache, what is the kind of data we want to store in cache
- How much RAM and how many machines do we need for us to achieve this ?
- Amount of data you want to store in disk/ssd
(3) DESIGN GOALS [5 min]
(1) Latency and Throughput requirements
(2) Consistency vs Availability [Weak/strong/eventual => consistency | Failover/replication => availability]
(4) HIGH LEVEL DESIGN [5-10 min]
(1) APIs for Read/Write scenarios for crucial components
(2) Database schema
(3) Basic algorithm
(4) High level design for Read/Write scenario
(5) DEEP DIVE [15-20 min]
(1) Scaling the algorithm
(2) Scaling individual components:
-> Availability, Consistency and Scale story for each component
-> Consistency and availability patterns
(3) Think about the following components, how they would fit in and how it would help
a) DNS
b) CDN [Push vs Pull]
c) Load Balancers [Active-Passive, Active-Active, Layer 4, Layer 7]
d) Reverse Proxy
e) Application layer scaling [Microservices, Service Discovery]
f) DB [RDBMS, NoSQL]
> RDBMS
>> Master-slave, Master-master, Federation, Sharding, Denormalization, SQL Tuning
> NoSQL
>> Key-Value, Wide-Column, Graph, Document
Fast-lookups:
-------------
>>> RAM [Bounded size] => Redis, Memcached
>>> AP [Unbounded size] => Cassandra, RIAK, Voldemort
>>> CP [Unbounded size] => HBase, MongoDB, Couchbase, DynamoDB
g) Caches
> Client caching, CDN caching, Webserver caching, Database caching, Application caching, Cache @Query level, Cache @Object level
> Eviction policies:
>> Cache aside
>> Write through
>> Write behind
>> Refresh ahead
h) Asynchronism
> Message queues
> Task queues
> Back pressure
i) Communication
> TCP
> UDP
> REST
> RPC
(6) JUSTIFY [5 min]
(1) Throughput of each layer
(2) Latency caused between each layer
(3) Overall latency justificationThursday, April 9, 2020
How to invest $900 US dollar on US stocks? Part B
April 9, 2020
It takes time for USA to get coronavirus under control. I do like the leadership role USA takes to help the world control the pandemic coronavirus problem. Also I like to do a quick research and put together those big drop stock, and then put together a portfolio called Coronavirus portfolio, memorize how hard USA fights back to go back to peak in short future.
I like to continue to search the stocks and then put together the portfolio. Here is the article for me to look up.
0087.L
WELL.N
AIG.N
SIVB.O
FITB.O
PRV.N
6KVV.L
XOM.N
ZG.O
CLRN
APA
WYNN
PINS.N
AIG.N
Introduction
It takes time for USA to get coronavirus under control. I do like the leadership role USA takes to help the world control the pandemic coronavirus problem. Also I like to do a quick research and put together those big drop stock, and then put together a portfolio called Coronavirus portfolio, memorize how hard USA fights back to go back to peak in short future.
Continue
I like to continue to search the stocks and then put together the portfolio. Here is the article for me to look up.
0087.L
WELL.N
AIG.N
SIVB.O
FITB.O
PRV.N
6KVV.L
XOM.N
ZG.O
CLRN
APA
WYNN
PINS.N
AIG.N
Wednesday, April 8, 2020
How to invest $900 US dollar on US stocks?
April 8, 2020
It is time for me to think about how to invest US stocks and my budget is $800 dollars.
As an investor, I have to push myself to learn more about business, industry. Now it is best time for me to read and also start to think like the owner, or investor.
Airlines
DAL, 2 shares, $23.23/ share, less than $50.00 dollars
AAL, 4 share, $11.33/ share, less than $50.00 dollars
LUV, 2 shares, $34.30/ share, less than $70.00 dollars
Cruiselines
CCL, 5 shares, $11/99/ share, less than $60.00 dollars
RCL, 2 shares, $37.56/ share, less than $80.00 dollars
NCLH, 5 share, $11.72, less than $60.00 dollars
Hotel and resorts
H (Hyatt), $51.40, 1 shares, $51.40 dollars
MGM, $15, 3 shares, $45 dollars
EXPE, $60.55, 1 share, $60.55
Introduction
It is time for me to think about how to invest US stocks and my budget is $800 dollars.
Buy stocks on sale
As an investor, I have to push myself to learn more about business, industry. Now it is best time for me to read and also start to think like the owner, or investor.
Airlines
DAL, 2 shares, $23.23/ share, less than $50.00 dollars
AAL, 4 share, $11.33/ share, less than $50.00 dollars
LUV, 2 shares, $34.30/ share, less than $70.00 dollars
Cruiselines
CCL, 5 shares, $11/99/ share, less than $60.00 dollars
RCL, 2 shares, $37.56/ share, less than $80.00 dollars
NCLH, 5 share, $11.72, less than $60.00 dollars
Hotel and resorts
H (Hyatt), $51.40, 1 shares, $51.40 dollars
MGM, $15, 3 shares, $45 dollars
EXPE, $60.55, 1 share, $60.55
Actionable Items
Case study: Search in rotated sorted array
April 8, 2020
I like to review the mock interview on March 19, 2020. The interviewee had super good performance to write a bug free code in less than 20 minutes.
Here is the gist.
Here are feedback from interviewer and interviewee.
Introduction
I like to review the mock interview on March 19, 2020. The interviewee had super good performance to write a bug free code in less than 20 minutes.
Case study
Here is the gist.
Here are feedback from interviewer and interviewee.
What SHOULD Investors Be Doing Now | Invested Podcast | Phil Town
Here is the link.
Phil and Danielle speak to how important it is right now that we are learning to invest like the best investors in the world. As we look into the future, we can see many variables impact investing.
Phil and Danielle speak to how important it is right now that we are learning to invest like the best investors in the world. As we look into the future, we can see many variables impact investing.
美国高收益债实质性违约风险有多大？
Here is the article.
从Bloomberg上可以导出目前美国高收益债（按照标普评级）的存量情况。截至美国时间3月16日收盘，美国现存的高收益债共有3710只，总规模为2.35万亿美元，高收益债发行人的全部未偿还金额为7.39万亿美元（因为发行人还有可能发投资级债券，因此这个数字要比高收益债规模大）。根据美联储数据，美国企业债的存量规模大致为10万亿美元，因此高收益债在其中的占比达到23.5%。分评级来看，B评级的有1.85万亿，其中26%都集中在“BB-”这个级别，C评级的有4000亿，D评级的有42亿（图表2）。
从Bloomberg上可以导出目前美国高收益债（按照标普评级）的存量情况。截至美国时间3月16日收盘，美国现存的高收益债共有3710只，总规模为2.35万亿美元，高收益债发行人的全部未偿还金额为7.39万亿美元（因为发行人还有可能发投资级债券，因此这个数字要比高收益债规模大）。根据美联储数据，美国企业债的存量规模大致为10万亿美元，因此高收益债在其中的占比达到23.5%。分评级来看，B评级的有1.85万亿，其中26%都集中在“BB-”这个级别，C评级的有4000亿，D评级的有42亿（图表2）。
US treasury bond restriction on April 6, 2020 - case study 5
Here is the article.
Lyn Alden Investment Strategy创始人Lyn Alden解读称，美联储推出这项工具旨在帮助美国的“债主”们避免无序抛售美元资产的状况。
美联储表示，该工具提供替代性的美元临时资金来源，避免相关实体在市场上出售美国国债，从而有助于支持美国国债市场的平稳运转。配合早些时候美联储与多国央行的流动性掉期协议，能够缓解国际美元流动性紧张的问题。
美联储表示，FIMA回购工具将从4月6日启用，并维持至少六个月。
Lyn Alden Investment Strategy创始人Lyn Alden解读称，美联储推出这项工具旨在帮助美国的“债主”们避免无序抛售美元资产的状况。
US treasury bond restriction on April 6, 2020 - case study 4
Here is the article.
针对截止3月25日的三周时间内外国官方已出售超千亿美元美国国债，且因供过于求，美债收益率大幅下跌的情况，为缓解美债市场和国外美元需求，美联储又推出了临时性美债回购便利工具，提供了一种新的美元融资渠道，可以说是市场急需的、非常必要的。
外国投资人持有美国国债的规模大约有6万亿美元，其中，中国约有1.07万亿美元，而日本比中国多了1千亿美元以上，所以，美联储推出国债回购业务，并不是专门针对中国的，而是对所有在纽约联储开立FIMA账户的机构，且受到包括日本在内的各国机构的广泛欢迎
针对截止3月25日的三周时间内外国官方已出售超千亿美元美国国债，且因供过于求，美债收益率大幅下跌的情况，为缓解美债市场和国外美元需求，美联储又推出了临时性美债回购便利工具，提供了一种新的美元融资渠道，可以说是市场急需的、非常必要的。
外国投资人持有美国国债的规模大约有6万亿美元，其中，中国约有1.07万亿美元，而日本比中国多了1千亿美元以上，所以，美联储推出国债回购业务，并不是专门针对中国的，而是对所有在纽约联储开立FIMA账户的机构，且受到包括日本在内的各国机构的广泛欢迎
US treasury bond restriction on April 6, 2020 - case study 3
Here is the article.
美联储此举更多地是为了阻止外国央行继续抛售美债，挽救美国国债市场
在3月份市场剧烈动荡中，美国出现了股债双杀局面，一向被视作避风港的美国国债被持续抛售。美联储为了稳固市场，宣布美元掉期安排适用于14家央行。但是，随后发现一些没有与美联储签署美元互换协议的央行持续抛售美债。一些交易商表示，依赖石油出口的国家和规模较小的亚洲经济体一直在出售美国国债，部分外国中央银行也参与了抛售。根据美联储公布的数据，3月份前3周，存放在美联储的外国官方美国国债减少了1090亿美元，是有记录以来最大单月跌幅，美国国债流动性已恶化至自2008年国际金融危机以来最差水平。
据统计，与美联储没有美元互换协议的外国央行手中握有上万亿美元美债，即使不完全抛售，也可以砸惨美国国债市场。根据国际清算银行统计，国际间80%的金融交易以美元计价，非美银行资产约12.6万亿美元，美债市场崩塌意味着美债丧失避险地位，美国的信用面临威胁。
在利率方面，美联储从出乎市场意料的提前降息50个基点，到下调100个基点一步到位地将美国基准利率降至接近零利率。
在量化宽松上，从3月16日到4月2日，美联储一共购买了9350亿美元国债，3440亿美元抵押贷款债券，半个月合计购入1.28万亿美元。截止到4月1日，美联储的资产平衡表暴涨至5.8万亿美元。照此速度，今年夏天就可以达到10万亿美元规模。
美国有1500万个家庭，即30%的美国人有购房贷款。根据穆迪分析，如果美国经济到夏天依然停摆，绝大多数家庭将无法支付房贷。届时，一方面是股市财富大幅蒸发，一方面是房屋要被收回拍卖，流离失所的美国普通人可能会不计其数。
美联储此举更多地是为了阻止外国央行继续抛售美债，挽救美国国债市场
外国官方美国国债减少了1090亿美元
在3月份市场剧烈动荡中，美国出现了股债双杀局面，一向被视作避风港的美国国债被持续抛售。美联储为了稳固市场，宣布美元掉期安排适用于14家央行。但是，随后发现一些没有与美联储签署美元互换协议的央行持续抛售美债。一些交易商表示，依赖石油出口的国家和规模较小的亚洲经济体一直在出售美国国债，部分外国中央银行也参与了抛售。根据美联储公布的数据，3月份前3周，存放在美联储的外国官方美国国债减少了1090亿美元，是有记录以来最大单月跌幅，美国国债流动性已恶化至自2008年国际金融危机以来最差水平。
外国央行手中握有上万亿美元美债
据统计，与美联储没有美元互换协议的外国央行手中握有上万亿美元美债，即使不完全抛售，也可以砸惨美国国债市场。根据国际清算银行统计，国际间80%的金融交易以美元计价，非美银行资产约12.6万亿美元，美债市场崩塌意味着美债丧失避险地位，美国的信用面临威胁。
为了应对这些伺机抛售的外国央行，美联储于3月31日公布了美债换美元计划，该计划将允许在纽约联储银行拥有账户的国际货币机构加入所谓回购协议的一项贷款安排。使它们可以用其持有的美国国债从美联储换取美元，提供给各自管辖范围内的机构使用。美联储在一份声明中称：“无需在公开市场出售证券，即可获得替代性临时美元现金。”
紧接着，在4月2日凌晨，美联储宣布暂时放松了杠杆率规定，意味着大型银行不再需要将国债和准备金添加到维持资本所需的一篮子资产中，从而大大降低了资本需求。
Facts to review在利率方面，美联储从出乎市场意料的提前降息50个基点，到下调100个基点一步到位地将美国基准利率降至接近零利率。
在量化宽松上，从3月16日到4月2日，美联储一共购买了9350亿美元国债，3440亿美元抵押贷款债券，半个月合计购入1.28万亿美元。截止到4月1日，美联储的资产平衡表暴涨至5.8万亿美元。照此速度，今年夏天就可以达到10万亿美元规模。
1500万个家庭
美国有1500万个家庭，即30%的美国人有购房贷款。根据穆迪分析，如果美国经济到夏天依然停摆，绝大多数家庭将无法支付房贷。届时，一方面是股市财富大幅蒸发，一方面是房屋要被收回拍卖，流离失所的美国普通人可能会不计其数。
US treasury bond restriction on April 6, 2020 - case study 2
Here is the article.
让我们不能拿美债去换石油，矿产等资源
Understanding 美国的回购市场
在美国的回购市场中，玩的就是回购和转抵押游戏，一个国债资产可以被转抵押3次，这过程创造了大量的货币需求，但是国债转抵押3次之后，就有了3个人同时宣称此国债的所有权，正常情况下，大家能遵守约定，正常维持回购链条的运转。但是此时，美联储突然在市场上疯狂扫货，两个星期就吃掉回购市场上的半数国债，这下可不得了，到期后我去你当铺赎回国债，你说已经转抵押给B当铺了，于是你去找B当铺要回国债，谁知B当铺也正在为找国债发愁，因为他贪图高收益把它抵押给了美联储，结果大家纷纷违约，信用危机产生，然后整体崩盘！
美联储疯狂印钞印太爽，结果把回购市场给窒息了，回购市场因国债稀缺，导致国债价格上涨。美联储清醒之后发现，真是左右为难，凶险异常，停止缩紧印钞嘛，左边就会死掉一大片企业，不缩紧印钞嘛，右边就会死掉一大片银行。这可怎么办，突然，美联储灵光一现：中国那里不是持有咱大量的美国国债嘛，何不让他们借给我们用，反正他们手上的国债闲着也是闲着，我们也刚好借此机会，当个好人帮他们缓缓美元荒。嗯，就这么办！于是美联储4月6号正式实施美国国债国际回购机制，招呼中国拿美债去换美元啦。
根本目的就是锁定中国的美债不让流通，也就是让我们不能拿美债去换石油，矿产等资源，只能跟美国美元绑定，然后大家一起过关，我崩盘了，你的钱就泡汤了，我不崩盘，但钱印多了你的债务总额就跟着贬值，ZTM是赤果果的抢夺啊！
Actionable Items
让我们不能拿美债去换石油，矿产等资源
US treasury bond restriction on April 6, 2020 - case study 1
Here is the article.
“4月6号，美国将正式启动美国国债国际回购机制，中国等各国央行可以通过抵押美国国债，向美联储获取美元贷款，美联储宣称此举旨在’帮助各国缓解美元荒’。事情的真相是，美联储的无限QE政策是以国债资产抵押来发行的钞票，现阶段，美大量印钱导致市场中的国债资产存量急剧下降。同时，国债价格急剧上升，也就是我们现在拿美国债去同其他国交换资源是最划算的。这也是我们可以价值最大化的抛售美债换取发展资源的利益最大化方法，但老特不允许我们发展壮大啊，所以要想办法控制我们的美债。”
“最近，因为美国大量印制美钞，国债价格上涨，我们持有的大量国债可以跟世界各国交换资源，使利益最大化。可惜，美国看到了这一点，干脆’锁仓’，让我们无法借美债上涨的机会换取国际资源从而出手美债。明白了吧？我们持有的美债现在不能正常流通了，现阶段想卖肯定也不好出手了（不能流通谁会买啊？），只好跟美元绑在一起，还得乖乖地帮着维护美元霸权的秩序！美帝用心险恶！赖账之旅已经启动！”
“4月6号，美国将正式启动美国国债国际回购机制，中国等各国央行可以通过抵押美国国债，向美联储获取美元贷款，美联储宣称此举旨在’帮助各国缓解美元荒’。事情的真相是，美联储的无限QE政策是以国债资产抵押来发行的钞票，现阶段，美大量印钱导致市场中的国债资产存量急剧下降。同时，国债价格急剧上升，也就是我们现在拿美国债去同其他国交换资源是最划算的。这也是我们可以价值最大化的抛售美债换取发展资源的利益最大化方法，但老特不允许我们发展壮大啊，所以要想办法控制我们的美债。”
“最近，因为美国大量印制美钞，国债价格上涨，我们持有的大量国债可以跟世界各国交换资源，使利益最大化。可惜，美国看到了这一点，干脆’锁仓’，让我们无法借美债上涨的机会换取国际资源从而出手美债。明白了吧？我们持有的美债现在不能正常流通了，现阶段想卖肯定也不好出手了（不能流通谁会买啊？），只好跟美元绑在一起，还得乖乖地帮着维护美元霸权的秩序！美帝用心险恶！赖账之旅已经启动！”
What can I do about a temporary layoff?
Here is the link.
Sponsored: A temporary layoff can be an enticing option for an employer experiencing a short-term downturn in business. But a temporary layoff can be treated as a termination of employment with severance pay. In this episode of the Employment Law Minute, Ottawa employment lawyer Alex Lucifero – a partner at Samfiru Tumarkin LLP – explains the options for employers and the rights of employees surrounding temporary layoffs.
Sponsored: A temporary layoff can be an enticing option for an employer experiencing a short-term downturn in business. But a temporary layoff can be treated as a termination of employment with severance pay. In this episode of the Employment Law Minute, Ottawa employment lawyer Alex Lucifero – a partner at Samfiru Tumarkin LLP – explains the options for employers and the rights of employees surrounding temporary layoffs.
Tuesday, April 7, 2020
Silicon Valley reeling from coronavirus layoffs
Here is the link.
CNBC's Kate Rooney breaks down how Silicon Valley start-ups are handling layoffs amid the coronavirus pandemic. Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told CNBC on Monday the economy is in the throes of an “absolutely shocking” downturn that is not reflected yet in the current data. If it were, she said, the unemployment rate probably would be as high as 13% while the overall economic contraction would be about 30%. “If we had a timely unemployment statistic, the unemployment rate probably would be up to 12 or 13% at this point and moving higher,” Yellen told CNBC’s Sara Eisen during a “Squawk on the Street” interview. She said gross domestic product is down “at least 30% and I’ve seen far higher numbers.” Those numbers, she said, look like a depression though they were “in very different form” from the Great Depression. “This is a huge, unprecedented, devastating hit, and my hope is that we will get back to business as quickly as possible,” she added. However, the former central bank leader expressed some doubt as to whether the U.S. recovery will look like a “V,” where the sharp and sudden downturn will be followed by an aggressive upturn once the economy is reopened after dealing with the coronavirus. “I think a ‘V’ is possible, but I am worried that the outcome will be worse and it really depends to my mind on just how much damage is down during the time that the economy is shut down in the way it is now,” Yellen said. That will be determined by whether employers can bring workers back quickly and if consumers aren’t too badly damaged to return to spending once social distancing associated with the coronavirus is rolled back. Economic data of late already has looked pretty bleak. A record 10 million Americans filed first-time unemployment claims in the past two weeks. Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 701,000 in March, the Labor Department reported Friday, based on its reference period the week ending March 12. The unemployment rate including workers outside the labor force and the underemployed rose to 8.7% for the period, rising from 7% in the biggest one-month gain on record. “The more damage of that sort is done, the more likely we are to see a ‘U,’ and there are worse letters like ‘L,’ and I hope we don’t see something like that,” Yellen said.
CNBC's Kate Rooney breaks down how Silicon Valley start-ups are handling layoffs amid the coronavirus pandemic. Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told CNBC on Monday the economy is in the throes of an “absolutely shocking” downturn that is not reflected yet in the current data. If it were, she said, the unemployment rate probably would be as high as 13% while the overall economic contraction would be about 30%. “If we had a timely unemployment statistic, the unemployment rate probably would be up to 12 or 13% at this point and moving higher,” Yellen told CNBC’s Sara Eisen during a “Squawk on the Street” interview. She said gross domestic product is down “at least 30% and I’ve seen far higher numbers.” Those numbers, she said, look like a depression though they were “in very different form” from the Great Depression. “This is a huge, unprecedented, devastating hit, and my hope is that we will get back to business as quickly as possible,” she added. However, the former central bank leader expressed some doubt as to whether the U.S. recovery will look like a “V,” where the sharp and sudden downturn will be followed by an aggressive upturn once the economy is reopened after dealing with the coronavirus. “I think a ‘V’ is possible, but I am worried that the outcome will be worse and it really depends to my mind on just how much damage is down during the time that the economy is shut down in the way it is now,” Yellen said. That will be determined by whether employers can bring workers back quickly and if consumers aren’t too badly damaged to return to spending once social distancing associated with the coronavirus is rolled back. Economic data of late already has looked pretty bleak. A record 10 million Americans filed first-time unemployment claims in the past two weeks. Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 701,000 in March, the Labor Department reported Friday, based on its reference period the week ending March 12. The unemployment rate including workers outside the labor force and the underemployed rose to 8.7% for the period, rising from 7% in the biggest one-month gain on record. “The more damage of that sort is done, the more likely we are to see a ‘U,’ and there are worse letters like ‘L,’ and I hope we don’t see something like that,” Yellen said.
Best investing opportunity since 1986 emerges in energy markets: Pro
Here is the link.
CNBC's Kelly Evans talks with Barry Bannister of Stifel about the outlook for markets amid the coronavirus pandemic. The crude oil crush has taken down energy stocks, but there may be some survivors, according to Simpler Trading director of options Danielle Shay. Crude briefly cracked below $20 on Monday — taking it to levels not seen since early 2002. Energy stocks have been dragged along with the sector tanking almost 53% this year and trading near levels it last hit in early 2004. Shay said that environment means that only the biggest oil companies will survive given the “disastrous situation” crude now finds itself in. She said energy companies “need oil to be $40 to $50 a barrel” for them to stay afloat. “The only [names], in this situation, that are going to be able to survive are ones that have enough cash on hand with a low debt-to-equity ratio,” she said Monday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “These names are really just going to be Chevron, Exxon, and then the big names that are going to have enough money to get through this.” Mark Newton of Newton Advisors also believes the low isn’t in for crude. “I know it’s tempting to think we’ve had this giant decline and it’s ripe for this group to bounce back, but you really just need to see more signs of stabilization,” he said in the same “Trading Nation” interview. He said the oil and exploration space, represented by the XOP ETF, ” should likely continue to underperform the greatest,” even though it is drastically underperforming now. “To put things in perspective, XOP, the exploration and production ETF, has fallen now 66% in the first 13 weeks of the year, so that’s over 5% a week,” Newton added. “To even expect some type of stabilization, you really need to see a move up over $36, which was hit last Thursday, and that could potentially help this group get into the low to mid $40s.” ExxonMobil and Chevron have fallen 46% and 40% respectively, but are still outperforming the energy sector as a whole.
CNBC's Kelly Evans talks with Barry Bannister of Stifel about the outlook for markets amid the coronavirus pandemic. The crude oil crush has taken down energy stocks, but there may be some survivors, according to Simpler Trading director of options Danielle Shay. Crude briefly cracked below $20 on Monday — taking it to levels not seen since early 2002. Energy stocks have been dragged along with the sector tanking almost 53% this year and trading near levels it last hit in early 2004. Shay said that environment means that only the biggest oil companies will survive given the “disastrous situation” crude now finds itself in. She said energy companies “need oil to be $40 to $50 a barrel” for them to stay afloat. “The only [names], in this situation, that are going to be able to survive are ones that have enough cash on hand with a low debt-to-equity ratio,” she said Monday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “These names are really just going to be Chevron, Exxon, and then the big names that are going to have enough money to get through this.” Mark Newton of Newton Advisors also believes the low isn’t in for crude. “I know it’s tempting to think we’ve had this giant decline and it’s ripe for this group to bounce back, but you really just need to see more signs of stabilization,” he said in the same “Trading Nation” interview. He said the oil and exploration space, represented by the XOP ETF, ” should likely continue to underperform the greatest,” even though it is drastically underperforming now. “To put things in perspective, XOP, the exploration and production ETF, has fallen now 66% in the first 13 weeks of the year, so that’s over 5% a week,” Newton added. “To even expect some type of stabilization, you really need to see a move up over $36, which was hit last Thursday, and that could potentially help this group get into the low to mid $40s.” ExxonMobil and Chevron have fallen 46% and 40% respectively, but are still outperforming the energy sector as a whole.
We're still just starting a recession: Investing pro
Here is the link.
CNBC's "The Exchange" breaks down markets with Richard Weiss of American Century Investments and Scott Wren of Wells Fargo. Stocks jumped on Monday, rebounding from sharp losses in the previous week, as the number of new coronavirus cases in the U.S. appeared to slow down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 1,200 points higher, or more than 5%. The S&P 500 gained 5.5% while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 5.4%. American Express gained more than 10% to lead the Dow higher. Dow Inc, Raytheon Technologies and JPMorgan Chase rose more than 7% each. The S&P 500 was led by the industrials and financials sectors, both of which traded more than 5% higher. Retail stocks such as Nordstrom, Kohl’s and Macy’s also rose sharply. Investors were encouraged by data that shows a slowing in the number of daily U.S. coronavirus cases, although it is still early to determine a lasting trend. There were about 30 thousand new cases on Thursday, 32.1 thousand cases on Friday, 33.26 thousand cases on Saturday, and then a slowing to just 28.2 thousand new cases Sunday, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins.
CNBC's "The Exchange" breaks down markets with Richard Weiss of American Century Investments and Scott Wren of Wells Fargo. Stocks jumped on Monday, rebounding from sharp losses in the previous week, as the number of new coronavirus cases in the U.S. appeared to slow down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 1,200 points higher, or more than 5%. The S&P 500 gained 5.5% while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 5.4%. American Express gained more than 10% to lead the Dow higher. Dow Inc, Raytheon Technologies and JPMorgan Chase rose more than 7% each. The S&P 500 was led by the industrials and financials sectors, both of which traded more than 5% higher. Retail stocks such as Nordstrom, Kohl’s and Macy’s also rose sharply. Investors were encouraged by data that shows a slowing in the number of daily U.S. coronavirus cases, although it is still early to determine a lasting trend. There were about 30 thousand new cases on Thursday, 32.1 thousand cases on Friday, 33.26 thousand cases on Saturday, and then a slowing to just 28.2 thousand new cases Sunday, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins.
All three companies are trading at major discounts from their 52-week highs as of the close on April 3: Royal Caribbean: $24.39 (down from $135.32) Carnival: $8.49 (down from $56.04) Norwegian: $8.46 (down from $59.78).
All three companies are trading at major discounts from their 52-week highs as of the close on April 3:
- Royal Caribbean: $24.39 (down from $135.32)
- Carnival: $8.49 (down from $56.04)
- Norwegian: $8.46 (down from $59.78).
Carnival Stock Soars 20% on Saudi Investment and New Liquidity Assessment
Here is the link.
The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia's official investment vehicle, disclosed it owns 43.5 million Carnival shares, the equivalent of an 8.2% stake in the cruise line operator. It makes the Saudi government the third largest shareholder. Because the sovereign wealth fund share purchase increased its stake above a 5% threshold, it was required to disclose the holding.
Carnival was also bolstered by the news that even though it's burning through about $1 billion a month, it has plenty of money to survive its cruise ships being idled in port, even under a worst-case scenario.
达美航空：巴菲特减持
Here is the link.
2004 almost bankrupt, 2005 Delta filed bankrupt.
2007 left bankrupt status.
2019 5 billion net income. Buyback stocks, easy money, and there are a few billion dollars net income.
April 30, 2020 - $6000 million dollar loss/ daily, 1.8 billion/ month, stock price $57.00 -> $22.00
1600 planes, 90,000 employees furlough - No. 1 airline may have to get bankrupt. 1200 planes stop service.
2004 almost bankrupt, 2005 Delta filed bankrupt.
2007 left bankrupt status.
2019 5 billion net income. Buyback stocks, easy money, and there are a few billion dollars net income.
April 30, 2020 - $6000 million dollar loss/ daily, 1.8 billion/ month, stock price $57.00 -> $22.00
1600 planes, 90,000 employees furlough - No. 1 airline may have to get bankrupt. 1200 planes stop service.
Key largo portfolio - April 7 2020
April 7, 2020
I have to work on Ford stock research and also GE stock research as well for my Key largo portfolio.
I have to work on some research, and find some companies to invest, airlines: DAL, LUV, BA, oil: OXY, cruiseship: CCL, Delta, Boeing.
Introduction
I have to work on Ford stock research and also GE stock research as well for my Key largo portfolio.
Case study
Actionable Items
I have to work on some research, and find some companies to invest, airlines: DAL, LUV, BA, oil: OXY, cruiseship: CCL, Delta, Boeing.
Worst Stock for 2009: Ford
Here is the article. I like to spend time to read the article and think about my 100 share investment made two weeks ago.
In Jan. 28, 2019, the S&P 500 down over 45% since its 2007 peak
Ford's stock was at the $1.94 price tag. Ford Motor Company really worth less than $5 billion? After all, the company is still doing over $160 billion in revenue, and competitors Toyota (NYSE:TM), Honda (NYSE:HMC), and Daimler carry market caps of $104 billion, $85 billion, and $28 billion, respectively.
What makes the whole situation worse is the fact that Ford is not simply a car manufacturer, it is also an auto financing company. That means that not only is the company dealing with slowing consumer spending, high legacy manufacturing costs, and tough competition from overseas manufacturers, but also with cash-strapped consumers defaulting on loans that they took out during the good times. Sure, Ford may not be Citigroup (NYSE:C) or Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), writhing under an avalanche of bad financial bets, but it doesn't need to be that bad for shareholders to suffer in 2009.
In Jan. 28, 2019, the S&P 500 down over 45% since its 2007 peak
Ford's stock was at the $1.94 price tag. Ford Motor Company really worth less than $5 billion? After all, the company is still doing over $160 billion in revenue, and competitors Toyota (NYSE:TM), Honda (NYSE:HMC), and Daimler carry market caps of $104 billion, $85 billion, and $28 billion, respectively.
What makes the whole situation worse is the fact that Ford is not simply a car manufacturer, it is also an auto financing company. That means that not only is the company dealing with slowing consumer spending, high legacy manufacturing costs, and tough competition from overseas manufacturers, but also with cash-strapped consumers defaulting on loans that they took out during the good times. Sure, Ford may not be Citigroup (NYSE:C) or Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), writhing under an avalanche of bad financial bets, but it doesn't need to be that bad for shareholders to suffer in 2009.
Ford stock 2009 purchase analysis
April 7, 2020
Here is the article.
Here are highlights:
Here is the article.
Here are highlights:
- 2008 fourth quarter - lost $2.48 a share, less than $2 dollar/ share;
- Ford will continue to sell cars and trucks, even while the economy stinks.
- It lost a record $14.6 billion for the year and burnt through more than $21 billion in case reserves.
Ford stock study - as 100 share holder
Here is the article.
A rock-solid balance sheet. Before the current crisis, Ford's debt load was modest and well-structured. Ford also had plenty of cash ($22.3 billion as of the end of 2019) and ample credit lines, all set aside to ensure that it could continue to fund its future-product programs through a recession.
Here are highlights:
A rock-solid balance sheet. Before the current crisis, Ford's debt load was modest and well-structured. Ford also had plenty of cash ($22.3 billion as of the end of 2019) and ample credit lines, all set aside to ensure that it could continue to fund its future-product programs through a recession.
Here are highlights:
- All factories are shut down in North America and Europe
- Take $15.4 billion line of credit
- 2019 $2.4 billion dollar dividend
A lot has changed at Ford in the last two weeks
As we've observed, the world -- and Ford's situation -- have changed a lot in the last two weeks.
- Under pressure from the United Auto Workers and lots of worried employees, Ford shut down all factories in North America and Europe, as well as several other factories in South Africa and Asia.
- Ford then suspended its dividend and drew down $15.4 billion -- every penny available -- from its existing lines of credit.
- CEO Jim Hackett told employees that cost cuts are coming, probably this week, but there will be no job cuts, at least for the time being.
- In a move that recalled Ford's quick shift to building B-24 Liberator bombers after the U.S. entered World War II, the company said it is working with 3M (NYSE:MMM) and the healthcare division of General Electric (NYSE:GE) to begin mass-producing masks, respirators, and hospital ventilators, all urgently needed by healthcare workers and first responders battling the pandemic.
- Last but not least, Ford lost its hard-won investment-grade credit rating, on concerns that the pandemic might leave the U.S. in a deep, prolonged recession.
The news of the dividend suspension was a tough development for longtime Ford investors. (Full disclosure: I'm one.) That said, it's no surprise that Ford suspended its dividend under the circumstances, given its urgent need to conserve cash. Ford paid out $2.4 billion in dividends last year; it was the right thing to do.
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