GM stock: GM stock soars toward another record after Microsoft partnership on driverless cars

 Jan. 19, 2021

Here is the article. 

Here are my notes:

1. 2 billion equity investment in GM's self-driving vehicle startup Cruise from Microsoft, So GM and HMC and MSFT three companies are working together on Cruise startup;
2. GM’s stock has now run up 30.9% so far this year
3. Cruise will use Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform to commercialize its autonomous vehicles at scale, while Azure will use Cruise’s industry expertise to enhance product innovation and serve its transportation customers.

Shares of General Motors Corp. shot up into record territory Tuesday, after the automaker said it was partnering with Microsoft Corp. to speed up the commercialization of driverless cars.

As part of the “long-term strategic relationship,” Microsoft will join General Motors GM, +9.75%, as well as Honda Motor Co. Ltd. HMC, +0.29% 7267, +0.25% and institutional investors on a combined new $2 billion equity investment in GM’s self-driving vehicle startup Cruise. GM said the investment brings the “post-money valuation” of Cruise to $30 billion.

GM’s stock soared 9.1% in very active afternoon trading, to trade well above its Jan. 14 record close of $51.53. Trading volume ballooned to 47.4 million shares, compared with the full-day average over the past 30 days of about 16.8 million shares.

Microsoft shares MSFT, +1.78% rose 1.3%.

GM’s stock has now run up 30.9% so far this year, as investors are reaping the benefits of GM’s all-in move into the electric vehicle market. GM has outperformed other electric vehicle makers year to date, as shares of Tesla Inc. TSLA, +2.23% have rallied 18.5% and of China-based Nio Inc. NIO, +3.86% have climbed 18.6%.

Cruise will use Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform to commercialize its autonomous vehicles at scale, while Azure will use Cruise’s industry expertise to enhance product innovation and serve its transportation customers.

“Microsoft is a great addition to the team as we drive toward a future world of zero crashes, zero emissions and zero congestion,” said GM Chief Executive Mary Barra. “Microsoft will help us accelerate the commercialization of Cruise’s all-electric, self-driving vehicles and help GM realize even more benefits from cloud computing as we launch 30 new electric vehicles globally by 2025 and create new businesses and services to drive growth.”

The valuation of GM’s Cruise is now closing in on that of Ford Motor Co. F, +1.93%, which has a market capitalization of $40.1 billion. Also in the EV space, Nikola Corp.’s NKLA, +2.79% market cap is $7.7 billion.

Leetcode discuss: 1053. Previous Permutation With One Swap

 Here is the link. 

Jan. 18, 2021
Introduction
It is last algorithm in one of premimum Microsoft mock onsite. I worked on the idea to use upper bound 10^4, lower time complexity to linear, record last occurrence each integer from 0 to 10000 backward in the array.

Case study
Input: arr = [3,2,1]
Output: [3,1,2]
Explanation: Swapping 2 and 1.

By practicing a lot of arrays, it was slowly for me to figure out how to come out the largest smallest integer.

My first approach is to assume that each integer in the array is from 0 to 9. So only 10 choices for integer. Last occurrence of digit is recorded from left to right.

For example, backward from last index = 2, current = 1, previous = 2, so it is possible to make it largest smaller. Index = 1, value 2 can be replaced by a digit smaller than 2, just brute force from 2, decrement one by one to search, 1 is found and it's latest occurrence is 2.

Next expand the array size to 10^4, the idea is the same.

Advice
I like to write down advice for me to be humble. I practice over 600 algorithm on Leetcode, and also won Gold medal on Hackerrank. But I was confused in the mock interview with last two algorithms.

First it is not good to have negative talk to myself, keep myself humble. Stay curious, and continue to spend time after the mock interview.

For my case, I made two mistakes, first it is not digits from 0 to 9, actually it is 0 to 10000. Secondly I did not like to read my own code to fix the bug after I wrote a solution. I ran Visual Studio debugger and then moved the statement to set

lastPos[current] = i;  

statement before if statement inside the for loop.

Time complexity
It is important to avoid brute force solution, find all pairs to swap and then keep the minimum one, which is O(N^3), N is the length of the array, since O(N^2) for all possible swaps, O(N) to compare integer array with maximum integer array.

My solution is O(N * M), N is the length of the array, M is the upper bound of arr[i].

The following code passes online judge.

public class Solution {
    public int[] PrevPermOpt1(int[] numbers) {
        if(numbers == null || numbers.Length == 0)
        {
            return new int[0];
        }
        
        var length = numbers.Length; 
        const int SIZE = 10000; 
        var lastPos = new int[SIZE];  // 10^4, not 10
        for(int i = 0; i < SIZE; i++)
        {
            lastPos[i] = -1; 
        }
        
        var swap = new int[length];
        for(int i = 0; i < length; i++)
        {
            swap[i] = numbers[i]; 
        }
        
        for(int i = length - 1; i >= 1; i--)
        {
            var current = numbers[i];
            var previous = numbers[i - 1];                       
            
            lastPos[current] = i; 
            
            if(previous > current)
            {
                for(int smaller = previous - 1; smaller >= 1; smaller--)
                {
                    if(lastPos[smaller] != -1)    
                    {
                        // swap two numbers
                        // i-1, largest[smaller]
                        var front = i - 1; 
                        var back = lastPos[smaller];
                        
                        swap[front] = smaller; 
                        swap[back]  = previous; 
                        
                        return swap;                        
                    }
                }                           
            }                        
        }
        
        return swap;                
    }
}

Leetcode discuss: 1081. Smallest Subsequence of Distinct Characters

 Here is the link. 

First practice - C# - Deque - Stumble over 7 times

Jan. 15, 2020
Introduction
It is the algorithm of Microsoft mock onsite interview. I could not come out working solution using linear time complexity. After careful thinking, I decide to count every char from right to left, so that I started a journey to find a working solution. It took me over a few hours.

Case study 1
"cbacdcbc", the answer is "adcb". How to find it?
cbacdcbc
cbacdcb1 <- last char is c, so distinct char total count is 1
cbacdc21 <- next to last one is b, so two distinct
cbacd221 <- third to last one is c, still two distinct
cbac3221 <- 4th to last one is d, three distinct

To find smallest subsequence, it is important to maintain deque data structure.
A deque is designed to maintain ascending order in the deque.
I failed so many test cases and then I decided to use C# LinkedList instead of Stack.

Case study 2
cbacdbbc
After counting distinct char from right to left, it is easy to work with the following:
cbacdcbc
44433221
c-> deque
'b' < 'c', remove last of deque, put 'b' into deque.
'a' < 'b', remove last of deque, put 'a' into deque
'a' has none left, so 'a' has to be selected to add into subsequence.

Case study 3
accaccbbcc
3333222211
The challenge of the test case is to understand i = 3, 'a', last 'a', so 'a' has to be added to subsequence, deque has two chars "ac", but 'a' is added to subsequence, stop. 'c' in deque is saved for competing for second char in subsequence.

Advice
Be patient. Once I come out the counting from back to front, the algorithm can be solved using linear time.

The idea is working, but I introduced a few factors to make it super hard to write and make it working. Just leave subsequence in the deque structure, and keep removing or adding from last of deque.

My last practice in Jan. 2019 is here.

Simplify
It is challenge for me to figure out a few steps in order to simplify the solution using one hashset, one stack, without a list to store one by one in subsequence, instead using stack. Those simplification makes the coding working less than 20 minutes.

Value
I tried to figure out what is benefit to make this solution working even if I had to take more than a few hours to figure out so many failed test cases, fix one by one.

using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;
using System.Linq;
using System.Text;
using System.Threading.Tasks;

namespace _1081_smallest_subsequence
{
    class Program
    {
        static void Main(string[] args)
        {
            var result = SmallestSubsequence("cbaacabcaaccaacababa");
        }        

        public static void RunTestcases()
        {
            //"cbacdcbc"
            //var result = SmallestSubsequence("cbacdcbc"); 
            //var result = SmallestSubsequence("leetcode");

            // "cbaacabcaaccaacababa" - should be abc, not acb
            // "cdadabcc", should be adbc, not adbcc
            //var result = SmallestSubsequence("cdadabcc"); 
            //var result = SmallestSubsequence("leetcode");
            var result = SmallestSubsequence("bcbcbcababa");
        }

        /// <summary>
        /// the important is to design linear time complexity
        /// </summary>
        /// <param name="text"></param>
        /// <returns></returns>
        public static string SmallestSubsequence(string text)
        {
            if (text == null || text.Length == 0)
            {
                return "";
            }
            
            // from back to front, count all chars 
            var distinctChars = new HashSet<char>(text.ToCharArray());

            var map = new Dictionary<int, HashSet<char>>();
            var digits = new int[26];

            var length     = text.Length;
            var digitCount = new int[26];
            
            var set = new HashSet<char>();
            var targetSize = distinctChars.Count;
            
            var list = new List<char>(); 

            // time complexity: O(26 * N) - optimal solution 
            for (int i = length - 1; i >= 0; i--)
            {
                var current = text[i];
                digitCount[current - 'a']++;

                set.Add(current);               
                map.Add(i, new HashSet<char>(set));
            }            

            int index = 0;            
            
            var deque = new LinkedList<int>(); 

            for (int i = 0; i < length; i++)
            {
                var target = targetSize - index;
                var value = map[i].Count;

                digitCount[text[i] - 'a']--;
                
                var c = text[i] - 'a';
                var found = new HashSet<char>(list);

                if (found.Contains(text[i]))
                {
                    continue;
                }

                var stackSet = new HashSet<int>(deque);
                while (!stackSet.Contains(c) && deque.Count > 0 && deque.Last() >= c)  // avoid duplicate, > should be >= "cdadabcc" - not "adbcc", "adbc"
                {
                    var removed = deque.Last();
                    deque.RemoveLast(); 

                    stackSet.Remove(removed); 
                }

                var existing = new HashSet<int>(deque);
                if (!existing.Contains(c))
                {
                    deque.AddLast(c);
                }

                // need to add all chars in stack to the list                   
                var lastOne = digitCount[text[i] - 'a'] == 0;
                if (i != length - 1)
                {
                    found.UnionWith(map[i + 1]);
                }

                if (lastOne || (i == length - 1 || found.Count < targetSize))
                {
                    int removed = 0; 
                    while(true)
                    {
                        var first = deque.First();
                        deque.RemoveFirst();
                        list.Add((char)(first + 'a'));

                        removed++;
                        if (first == text[i] - 'a')
                        {
                            break;
                        }
                    }                                                              
                       
                    index += removed;                                       
                }                                              
            }

            return new string(list.ToArray()); 
        }
    }
}

Equity research: 2020 Ameritrade IRA performance

 Jan. 18, 2021

Introduction

It is easy for me to run a report to see what is my performance from Jan. 2019 to Jan. 2021. My performance is not so good, but most important is to continue to learn and understand value investing. 

2020 performance

Lesson learned 

INTC stock's loss is around $343.50 dollars, and SABR stock's loss is around $817.00 dollars. I should work on long term investment, and try to time the market bottom and then purchase a lot of shares. I do not need to purchase so many stocks and so many transaction. Hold a few of them for long term. 

MRO case study

Bought MRO 4.23/ share 1000 share, and in less than six month, on Jan. 19, it is 8.57/ share. My profit is ($98.95) in loss. I have to look into long term. Do not spend too much on daily, and focus on possible 100% long term. Aim for it. If it does not happen, then do not worry. I do not need those $4000 US dollars in my account in next six months or 10 years. 

Equity research: 2020 TFSA performance

 Jan. 18, 2021

Introduction

I like to do a quick review of performance review on my TFSA questrade.com performance. I am a beginner to invest on stocks. I learn a few lessons. 

2020 TFSA performance

Lessons I learned

I should purchase more shares on HSE.TO when my position had over 30% loss. Always buy at lowest price of last 365 days. 

Do not think about market value. Also aim high target. Hold the position until 100% return in next six months. Believe that Husky has more ways to solve their stock market value issues. Do not let market swing confuse me as a beginner. 

My thoughts

Respect Mr. Market. Don't take the small profit. Let market do it's own work. I focus on learning value investing and other creative projects in my life. 

Sven Carlin: Why I'm NOT Buying Tesla Stock, Bitcoin, Aurora Cannabis - Stock Market For Real Investors

 Jan. 17, 2021

Here is the link. 

Stock market investing for real investors is something done over a life cycle of investing, always keeping compounding over the long-term in mind and focusing on low risk/high reward. I know such stock market investing is boring, not exciting as tesla stock or aurora or bitcoin, but I know it works over the long term and it allows you to build wealth.

My notes:

1. 46 year old - since 2002
2. Why not invest in TESLA, Bitcoin?
3. Long time investing - 80 years investing
4. Find ways to sustain - keep compounding - in the way - over the very long term - not losing money - risk and reward
5. Is it sustainable in long term? Not 30% or 40% to invest in TESLA?
6. 49% will bust. Compound - over long term - hundreds of thousand
7. 50 companies like TESLA - 49 will bust, one will survive
8. Do not lose money. Compound -

Stephan Siteman: Investing in the Future of the Cybersecurity Workforce

 Jan. 17, 2021

Here is the article. 

Facebook is focused on supporting and investing heavily in the next generation of cybersecurity professionals through innovation and hands-on education for students, professors, and veterans. Learn how you too can help plant the seeds for a blossoming generation of technical minds.

Facebook developer: F8 2018: Live with Alex Stamos

 Jan. 17, 2021

Here is the link. 

Join us again, live with Alex Stamos, Facebook's Chief Security Officer, speaking about how we approach security to protect our global community

I like to invest 1000 shares on SWI, and I like to push myself to learn more about security and how Facebook integrates security with the product line of Facebook.

Equity research: AT&T: No Dividend Raise, But Here's Why It Doesn't Matter

 

Cash Flow Story Remains Intact, Deleveraging Will Continue

Jan. 17, 2021

Here is the article.

Here are my notes:

1. Cash flow $26 billion 
2. Movie business couldn't operate normally.
3. 2021 same cash flow - growth investments for 5G, HBO Max, etc. are all paid for. 
4. Cash flow - total 45 billion during last four quarters - Per YCharts?
5. 20 billion a year for the growth of its 5G network, replacement of older lines and other assets
6. 25 billion for shareholder returns - via dividends and/ or buybacks, debt reduction, or acquisitions 
7. 
   

AT&T is not a growth company, and it likely will never turn into a growth company. But even slow-growing companies can be great investments. In this case, AT&T is generating huge cash flows that allow for ample shareholder returns, and its valuation is so low that not a lot of underlying business growth is needed for shareholders to see solid returns.

During 2020, the pandemic-stricken year, AT&T has generated free cash flows of ~$26 billion, despite the fact that some of its business units, such as the movie business, couldn't operate normally. AT&T's CFO has recently stated that the company plans to generate a similar amount of free cash flow this year -- even after growth investments for 5G, HBO Max, etc. are all paid for. This is possible thanks to AT&T's very strong operating cash flows, which totaled $45 billion during the last four quarters (per YCharts). AT&T invests about $20 billion a year for the growth of its 5G network, replacement of older lines and other assets, and so on, which leaves a little more than $25 billion left over that can be used for shareholder returns (via dividends and/or buybacks), debt reduction, or acquisitions.

In the past, AT&T's previous management teams oftentimes were focused on acquisitions a little too much, heavily overpaying for DirecTV, for example, relative to the value the business has now, a couple of years later. It seems that current management will not be doing the same mistake, however, as AT&T is more prone to selling non-core assets instead of making new acquisitions since the Time Warner takeover closed. A large part of AT&T's free cash flows can thus be used for debt reduction, as takeovers are not eating up cash any longer.

Here are my notes:

1. 26 billion cash flows, 15 billion - dividend costing - 11 billion of debt
2. Q4 2020 - net debt $130 billion to $135 billion by the end of 2021
3. DirectTV for $15 billion or more - debt reduction
4. If possible, debt will be less than $120 billion 
5. 45 billion debt reduction in next few years. 

Based on management's current outlook, investors can expect that debt reduction will continue during the current year. With a forecasted $26 billion in free cash flows, and dividends costing the company about $15 billion, AT&T could pay down $11 billion of debt this year from free cash flows alone. When we further include the paydown during Q4 of 2020, which isn't visible in financial reports yet, AT&T's net debt could come down to about $130 billion to $135 billion by the end of 2021. This does not include potential additional debt reduction through asset sales yet. AT&T is looking at selling DirecTV for $15 billion or more, while smaller assets are also being monetized. If a DirecTV sale is finalized this year, AT&T could possibly end 2021 with less than $120 billion in net debt, which would be a very large reduction relative to the baseline a couple of years ago. Even if there is no DirecTV sale, the outlook for around $130 billion of net debt by the end of the current year is quite positive, I believe. That equates to a ~$45 billion reduction in total net debt over a couple of years. On top of that, AT&T's leverage would be at a very reasonable level relative to the EBITDA the company generates:

In a scenario where AT&T's net debt is $130 billion at the end of this year, while AT&T generates EBITDA of $56 billion during 2021, in line with analyst estimates, AT&T's trailing net debt to EBITDA ratio will be 2.3 a year from now. That doesn't sound like an overly high amount of leverage, especially considering that interest rates are at record lows and that AT&T has already refinanced dozens of billions of debt at these low rates.

Even With No Raise, AT&T Offers An Attractive Income Stream

I expect that AT&T will announce a dividend raise in 2021 in order to keep its Dividend Aristocrat status, but even if that doesn't occur, the income stream that the company offers would remain very solid. AT&T yields 7.1% at the time of writing, which is about 4-5 times as much as the broad market's yield. If investors do never again get a dividend raise, and investors just continue to reinvest dividends at an average yield of 7%, an investor that buys now will have a yield on cost of 10% five years from now. For someone just looking for a major blue-chip stock that is relatively resilient to recessions and that offers a high yield that is well-covered, AT&T could thus be a very solid choice. I personally think that a couple of other names are even more attractive for income investors, such as Enterprise Products (EPD), but that is a more volatile stock. Enterprise Products also issues a K-1, which may be a problem for some investors. Those looking for a solid income yield without much hassle could be very happy with an investment in AT&T at current valuations.

Julia's notes:

1. upside 30% in a couple of years - solid upside, not a gigantic return potential 

Upside Potential

Shares are inexpensive, but that alone will not necessarily lead to gains. Oftentimes, a catalyst or sentiment change is needed to make a value stock's share price rise. I believe that something like that could occur with AT&T's stock over the coming one or two years. Once deleveraging has progressed and debt levels are somewhere between $120 billion and $130 billion, more investors may realize that debt is not really a problem for AT&T. Since AT&T's dividend yield will still be high while interest rates remain at a quite low level, more income investors may start to pile into the stock, which could give it the tailwinds it needs to get back to previous highs. Just one year ago AT&T traded in the high $30s, thus an upside potential of up to 30% is not at all unlikely over a couple of years. AT&T is thus not an investment with a gigantic return potential, but with solid upside over the next one to two years, while also offering a sizeable income yield.

Being a top researcher: Start from equity research

 Jan. 17, 2021

Introduction

I am a beginner at work in equity research. I would like to figure out when and how I can be a top researcher. I would like to take my research result into the stock market and see if I can produce gains in the short term. 

Research and my action

I would like to learn how to push myself to be a better researcher. One of the ideas is to work on equity research. If I can do particularly good research, then soon or later I will make a lot of money based on my research. 

My equity research should cover all kinds of business, right now I am working on from Intel, Facebook, SolarWinds, Express, AT&T. 

1. Purchase 700 shares of SWI at price 16.02/ shares. Expect 30% to 50% rebound from capital 5 billion to 8 billion in next 1 month to 6 month;
2. EXPR stock, invest another $7000 US dollars to catch a rebound more than 20% to 30% in next one to two months. 
3. Invest another 300 shares of AT &T at lowest price of 365 days. 

Simple wall street 

Follow up 

Oct. 20, 2023

Subscribe Morningstar, IBD digital, tipranks.com, marketwatch.com, Barron.com.

T stock: AT&T Stock 2021 Back in Business | Buy AT&T Stock? | HBO Max

 Jan. 16, 2021

Here is the link. 

2021 is going to be a HUGE and EXCITING year for AT&T and HBO Max. After an eventful December, the company will make some major announcements in 2021 that could have major implications on the company's business, cash flow, and ultimately, their dividend. As a dividend investor that may own shares of this stock with a 7%+ dividend yield, you will not want to miss the company's recent news. In the video, we discuss 4 major stories and headlines for AT&T. We discuss each story, in detail, and share our opinions about the impact each development has on YOUR dividend income, and passive income. Further, we answer a simple question: are we buying, selling, or holding AT&T stock in our dividend stock portfolios?

AT&T is one of the largest wireless communication, internet, and media companies out there. The company is a Dividend Aristocrat (25+ years of consecutive dividend increases) and pays a very, very strong dividend. AT&T has a solid dividend payout ratio as well for a company with a 7%+ dividend yield! AT&T fought back in the streaming wars with Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, and others. The company launched HBO Max and has grown the company's subscriber base rapidly in 2020. The company made headlines in December 2020 when it was announced that Warner Media will release all movies on HBO Max the same day as movie theaters. This video covers 4 topics and stories that will have major implications on AT&T's stock price, and dividend, in 2021: 1.) HBO Max launched its first movie directly to HBO Max on the same day as theaters. Wonder Woman 1984 was released last week and performed well in the box office and on HBO Max. This is the first of many high profile movies (Matrix 4, Kong, and Space Jam) and TV shows (Friends Reunion) that will launch on the platform in 2021. 2.) The 5G auctions are heating up. Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile are all involved in an expensive bidding war to improve their 5G networks. 3.) AT&T continues to shop DirectTV to try to find a potential buyer. We provide an update on any news we have heard about the sale and the potential implications it has for AT&T amd its balance sheet. 4.) All eyes look towards January 27, 2021. AT&T is set to potentially announce a dividend increase at the end of the month. Management has stated they will provide an update about the company's capital allocation plan when releasing earnings on this day! AT&T investors, get ready, 2021 is going to be exciting! Please share any comments you have about AT&T, HBO Max, and the major stories we covered in this video in the comments section below! Are you buying or selling after the news? Do you think any of the stories are potential game changers for AT&T?

Jake Alexander: Why AT&T (T) Stock Will Hit $40 In 2021

 Jan. 16, 2021

Here is the link. 

In this video, I'm going to explain my thesis behind why I believe that AT&T stock could potentially hit upwards of $40 per share in 2021. Despite a change in management and some positive moves made in 2020, AT&T shares still remain at a very low valuation. In this video, I will be explaining the tailwind that I believe could potentially catapult T shares out of the low $30 range. What do you think of AT&T stock? Timestamps: Intro: 0:00​ Why AT&T Shares Are Low: 0:51​ What Has Happened Recently: 2:06​ Thesis - Why HBO Max Is Not Priced In: 3:07​ Thesis - What If HBO Max Takes Off? 7:23​ Thesis - Why HBO Max Will Grow More Than Expected: 8:33​ Summary: 10:26​ Outro: 11:39

HBO on Roku platform - 17 million user platform 

Warner bros - HBO max 

T stock: Analyst Craig Moffett explains his sell rating on AT&T

 Here is the link. 

Craig Moffett, founder and senior analyst at Moffett Nathanson, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss AT&T's quarterly earnings results. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2NGeIvi

Oct. 22, 2020 ​

Fair value $24.00

HBO Max

WarnerMedia  

Equity research: WarnerMedia CEO John Stankey | Full interview | Code Media 2019

 Jan. 16, 2021

Here is the link. 

WarnerMedia CEO John Stankey joins Recode Senior Media Correspondent Peter Kafka onstage at Code Media 2019 in Los Angeles. Stankey is responsible for the company’s media and entertainment business, which includes WarnerMedia Entertainment, WarnerMedia News & Sports, and Warner Bros. Stankey also previously led AT&T’s Time Warner merger integration planning team.

Equity research: WarnerMedia CEO John Stankey | Full interview | Code Media 2019

 Jan. 16, 2021

Here is the link. 

WarnerMedia CEO John Stankey joins Recode Senior Media Correspondent Peter Kafka onstage at Code Media 2019 in Los Angeles. Stankey is responsible for the company’s media and entertainment business, which includes WarnerMedia Entertainment, WarnerMedia News & Sports, and Warner Bros. Stankey also previously led AT&T’s Time Warner merger integration planning team.

Equity research: WarnerMedia CEO John Stankey on the launch of HBO Max

 Jan. 16, 2021

Here is the link. 

John Stankey, CEO of WarnerMedia, sits down with CNBC's David Faber to discuss the launch of the company's new streaming platform, HBO Max.