Tuesday, November 9, 2021

CMCSA stock: NBCUniversal Media, LLC | My first 20 minutes reading about NBCUniversal Media, LLC

 NBCUniversal Media, LLC, doing business as NBCUniversal (formerly known as NBC Universal, Inc. from 2004 to 2011), is an American multinational mass media and entertainment conglomerate corporation owned by Comcast and headquartered at 30 Rockefeller Plaza in Midtown Manhattan, New York City, United States.[5]

NBCUniversal is primarily involved in the media and entertainment industry. The company is named for its two most significant divisions, the National Broadcasting Company (NBC) – one of the United States' Big Three television networks – and the major Hollywood film studio Universal Pictures. It also has a significant presence in broadcasting through a portfolio of domestic and international properties, including USA Network, Syfy, Bravo, Telemundo, Universal Kids, and the streaming service Peacock. Via its Universal Parks & Resorts division, NBCUniversal is also the third-largest operator of amusement parks in the world.[6]

NBCUniversal was formed on August 2, 2004, with the merger of General Electric's NBC with Vivendi Universal's film and television subsidiary Vivendi Universal Entertainment, after GE had acquired 80% of the subsidiary, giving Vivendi a 20% share of the new company.[7][8] In 2011, Comcast attained 51% and thereby the control of newly reformed NBCUniversal, by purchasing shares from GE, while GE bought out Vivendi. Since 2013, the company has been wholly owned by Comcast, which bought GE's ownership stake.[9]

Sabr stock: My study | Earnings date with a drop over 15%

Nov. 9, 2021

Here is the article.  

Sabre Corporation SABR recently signed a strategic partnership with the Japan-based Hotel Keihan Chain. Per the deal, the travel tech company will enable the Asian hotelier in creating tourism opportunities within Japan.

Utilizing Sabre’s Global Distribution System (“GDS”) platform along with a wide range of other technology solutions (including Sabre’s Consortia Services), the Osaka-headquartered hotel chain intends to expand its global reach and accelerate recovery of the Japanese tourism industry post pandemic.

With Sabre’s SynXis hospitality platform, which powers over 40% of the world’s leading hotel brands, Hotel Keihan will get access to exclusive international business opportunities. It will allow the hotel chain to connect with major corporations worldwide and commence Request For Proposal (“RFP”) contracting.

This, in turn, will aid Hotel Keihan by bringing in increased domestic and international bookings for both corporate and leisure trips. This will also help the hotelier in improving Average Daily Rate (“ADR”) and occupancy levels.

Meanwhile, the partnership is likely to aid the leading travel-related software and technology provider in expanding its customer share and boosting its Hospitality Solutions segment revenues. Sabre has its customer base spread over 160 nations with more than 425,000 agency partners globally. It is one of the largest marketplaces in the world that manages approximately $260 billion worth of global travel spending annually.

With a rise in vaccination efforts and lifting of restrictions worldwide, the global travel industry is gradually recovering from the pandemic blues. Sabre is well-poised to capitalize on the travel industry's improving market scenario. The hospitality industry (part of the broader travel industry) is rebounding from the pandemic induced woes. The company’s Hospitality Solutions segment revenues totaled $55 million in third quarter compared with $51 million in second quarter and year-ago quarter’s $45 million.

RNG stock: RingCentral, Inc.

 RingCentral, Inc. is an American publicly traded provider of cloud-based communications and collaboration solutions[buzzword] for businesses.[3][4][5][6][7][8][9]

RingCentral CEO Vlad Shmunis and CTO Vlad Vendrow founded the company in 1999.[10][11][12] RingCentral investors included Doug Leone, Sequoia Capital, David Weiden, Khosla Ventures, Rob Theis, Scale Venture Partners, Bobby Yerramilli-Rao, Hermes Growth Partners and DAG Ventures.[13][14][15] It completed its IPO in 2013.[16][17]

History[edit]

Co-Founders of RingCentral, Vlad Shmunis and Vlad Vendrow, previously worked together at RingZero Systems where Vlad Shmunis was Founder / CEO and Vlad Vendrow was Director of Engineering. RingZero was focused on small business communications on Microsoft Windows.[18] The company was sold to Motorola for "double-digit millions". After Motorola changed the focus exclusively on mobile platforms, Vlad Shmunis and Vlad Vendrow founded RingCentral.[19][11]

RingCentral was bootstrapped from 1999 until it received its first round of venture capital investment in 2006.[18] In 2011, RingCentral added Cisco and Silicon Valley Bank as investors and had, to date, secured a total of $45 million in capital investment.[20]

On September 27, 2013, RingCentral completed its IPO.[16][17] The company completed a follow-on offering in March 2014 that raised $39.8 million for the company.[21]

In May 2019, RingCentral purchased the naming rights to the Oakland Coliseum renaming it to the RingCentral Coliseum. It is home to the Oakland Athletics and was the home of the Oakland Raiders during the first year of the naming rights agreement.[22]

In February 2020, RingCentral and Avaya unveiled the Avaya Cloud Office application.[23] Within four months of this event, RingCentral shares rose 54%.[24]

In April 2020, RingCentral launched a video conferencing product, RingCentral Video.[25][26]

In December 2020, RingCentral purchased DeepAffects that specializes in intelligence-assisted speech recognition.[27]

In March 2021, RingCentral purchased Kindite, an encryption service provider.[28]

Acquisitions[edit]

In June 2015, RingCentral acquired Glip, a team collaboration provider.[29]

In October 2018, RingCentral acquired Dimelo, a Paris-based OmniChannel contact center provider.[30]

In January 2019, RingCentral acquired Connect First, a Boulder, Colorado-based outbound and blended customer engagement provider.[citation needed]

Products[edit]

RingCentral's flagship product is RingCentral Office. The company also offers RingCentral Professional, and RingCentral Fax.[31][32]

RingCentral provides a cloud-based business phone system. It offers PBX features such as multiple extensions; call control; Outlook, Salesforce, Google Docs, DropBox and Box integration; SMS; video conferencing and web conferencing; fax; auto-receptionist; call logs; and rule-based call routing and answering.[7][32][33] Customers do not require capital investment or maintenance contracts, which lowers customer costs and – as with most cloud-based technologies -- "potentially disrupts" traditional on-premises PBX providers.[34]

RingCentral Office[edit]

RingCentral Office is a cloud-based PBX system for businesses.[33] RingCentral Office features include call auto-attendant, company directory, call forwarding and handling, multiple extensions, a mobile app for iPhone and Android, Business SMS, video conferencing and screen-sharing, and fax.[33]

RingCentral Professional[edit]

RingCentral Professional is a suite that provides a universal telephone number, voice mail, dial-by-name directory, call-forwarding, and other features through a smartphone app on iPhone and Android devices.[15][35]

RingCentral Fax[edit]

RingCentral Fax allows users to send and receive faxes through the Internet without a fax machine.[36][37] The service integrates with Dropbox, Box, and Google Docs.[36]

RingCentral Meetings, Webinar and Rooms[edit]

  • RingCentral Meetings is a web conferencing solution[buzzword]
  • RingCentral Webinar allows companies to host HD-ready virtual events with up to 3000 attendees.
  • RingCentral Rooms is to manage web conferences.

RingCentral Glip[edit]

In June 2015, RingCentral acquired Glip.[38] Glip is a persistent workstream collaboration platform which adds team messaging, document sharing, task and event management, and other collaboration functionality to the RingCentral platform. Glip was acquired by RingCentral for an undisclosed amount.[39]

Offices[edit]

It is headquartered in Belmont, California, and in the United States has offices in Denver, Charlotte, Boulder and Boca Raton, with international offices in Toronto, London, Paris, Singapore, Manila, Bangalore Xiamen, China, St. Petersburg, Russia, and Odessa, Ukraine.[40][13][41][18]

Comcast stock: My first purchase | Yahoo -> Finance -> Conversation

18 days ago

 I'm a long position investor. / Stock prices will rise as time goes by for internet, IR security, movies, theme parks. / The cable business isn't doing well right now, but there are a lot of sources that are worth the money.

Monday, November 8, 2021

The Google File System | Paper reading | Another two hours at least | Day two to read

Nov. 8, 2021

Here is the link. 

I did spend over two hours to read the paper. Here is the blog. 

2.6.3 Operation Log 

The operation log contains a historical record of critical metadata changes. It is central to GFS. Not only is it the only persistent record of metadata, but it also serves as a logical time line that defines the order of concurrent operations. Files and chunks, as well as their versions (see Section 4.5), are all uniquely and eternally identified by the logical times at which they were created. 

Since the operation log is critical, we must store it reliably and not make changes visible to clients until metadata changes are made persistent. Otherwise, we effectively lose the whole file system or recent client operations even if the chunks themselves survive. Therefore, we replicate it on multiple remote machines and respond to a client operation only after flushing the corresponding log record to disk both locally and remotely. The master batches several log records together before flushing thereby reducing the impact of flushing and replication on overall system throughput. The master recovers its file system state by replaying the operation log. To minimize startup time, we must keep the log small. 

The master checkpoints its state whenever the log grows beyond a certain size so that it can recover by loading the latest checkpoint from local disk and replaying only the limited number of log records after that. The checkpoint is in a compact B-tree like form that can be directly mapped into memory and used for namespace lookup without extra parsing. This further speeds up recovery and improves availability.

Because building a checkpoint can take a while, the master’s internal state is structured in such a way that a new checkpoint can be created without delaying incoming mutations. The master switches to a new log file and creates the new checkpoint in a separate thread. The new checkpoint includes all mutations before the switch. It can be created in a minute or so for a cluster with a few million files. When completed, it is written to disk both locally and remotely. 

Recovery needs only the latest complete checkpoint and subsequent log files. Older checkpoints and log files can be freely deleted, though we keep a few around to guard against catastrophes. A failure during checkpointing does not affect correctness because the recovery code detects and skips incomplete checkpoints.

2.7 Consistency Model 

GFS has a relaxed consistency model that supports our highly distributed applications well but remains relatively simple and efficient to implement. We now discuss GFS’s guarantees and what they mean to applications. We also highlight how GFS maintains these guarantees but leave the details to other parts of the paper.

2.7.1 Guarantees by GFS 

File namespace mutations (e.g., file creation) are atomic. They are handled exclusively by the master: namespace locking guarantees atomicity and correctness (Section 4.1); the master’s operation log defines a global total order of these operations (Section 2.6.3).

The state of a file region after a data mutation depends on the type of mutation, whether it succeeds or fails, and whether there are concurrent mutations. Table 1 summarizes the result. A file region is consistent if all clients will always see the same data, regardless of which replicas they read from. A region is defined after a file data mutation if it is consistent and clients will see what the mutation writes in its entirety. When a mutation succeeds without interference from concurrent writers, the affected region is defined (and by implication consistent): all clients will always see what the mutation has written. Concurrent successful mutations leave the region undefined but consistent: all clients see the same data, but it may not reflect what any one mutation has written. Typically, it consists of mingled fragments from multiple mutations. A failed mutation makes the region inconsistent (hence also undefined): different clients may see different data at different times. We describe below how our applications can distinguish defined regions from undefined regions. The applications do not need to further distinguish between different kinds of undefined regions.

Data mutations may be writes or record appends. A write causes data to be written at an application-specified file offset. A record append causes data (the “record”) to be appended atomically at least once even in the presence of concurrent mutations, but at an offset of GFS’s choosing (Section 3.3). (In contrast, a “regular” append is merely a write at an offset that the client believes to be the current end of file.) The offset is returned to the client and marks the beginning of a defined region that contains the record. In addition, GFS may insert padding or record duplicates in between. They occupy regions considered to be inconsistent and are typically dwarfed by the amount of user data.

After a sequence of successful mutations, the mutated file region is guaranteed to be defined and contain the data written by the last mutation. GFS achieves this by (a) applying mutations to a chunk in the same order on all its replicas (Section 3.1), and (b) using chunk version numbers to detect any replica that has become stale because it has missed mutations while its chunkserver was down (Section 4.5). Stale replicas will never be involved in a mutation or given to clients asking the master for chunk locations. They are garbage collected at the earliest opportunity.

Since clients cache chunk locations, they may read from a stale replica before that information is refreshed. This window is limited by the cache entry’s timeout and the next open of the file, which purges from the cache all chunk information for that file. Moreover, as most of our files are append-only, a stale replica usually returns a premature end of chunk rather than outdated data. When a reader retries and contacts the master, it will immediately get current chunk locations.

Questions: 

  1. Checksumming - what is to be used for?
  2. irreversibly - Google translate - 

Long after a successful mutation, component failures can of course still corrupt or destroy data. GFS identifies failed chunkservers by regular handshakes between master and all chunkservers and detects data corruption by checksumming (Section 5.2). Once a problem surfaces, the data is restored from valid replicas as soon as possible (Section 4.3). A chunk is lost irreversibly only if all its replicas are lost before GFS can react, typically within minutes. Even in this case, it becomes unavailable, not corrupted: applications receive clear errors rather than corrupt data.

2.7.2 Implications for Applications 

GFS applications can accommodate the relaxed consistency model with a few simple techniques already needed for other purposes: relying on appends rather than overwrites, checkpointing, and writing self-validating, self-identifying records. 

Practically all our applications mutate files by appending rather than overwriting. In one typical use, a writer generates a file from beginning to end. It atomically renames the file to a permanent name after writing all the data, or periodically checkpoints how much has been successfully written. Checkpoints may also include application-level checksums. Readers verify and process only the file region up to the last checkpoint, which is known to be in the defined state. Regardless of consistency and concurrency issues, this approach has served us well. Appending is far more efficient and more resilient to application failures than random writes. Checkpointing allows writers to restart incrementally and keeps readers from processing successfully written file data that is still incomplete from the application’s perspective.

In the other typical use, many writers concurrently append to a file for merged results or as a producer-consumer queue. Record append’s append-at-least-once semantics preserves each writer’s output. Readers deal with the occasional padding and duplicates as follows. Each record prepared by the writer contains extra information like checksums so that its validity can be verified. A reader can identify and discard extra padding and record fragments using the checksums. If it cannot tolerate the occasional duplicates (e.g., if they would trigger non-idempotent operations), it can filter them out using unique identifiers in the records, which are often needed anyway to name corresponding application entities such as web documents. These functionalities for record I/O (except duplicate removal) are in library code shared by our applications and applicable to other file interface implementations at Google. With that, the same sequence of records, plus rare duplicates, is always delivered to the record reader.

3. SYSTEM INTERACTIONS 

We designed the system to minimize the master’s involvement in all operations. With that background, we now describe how the client, master, and chunkservers interact to implement data mutations, atomic record append, and snapshot.

3.1 Leases and Mutation Order 

A mutation is an operation that changes the contents or metadata of a chunk such as a write or an append operation. Each mutation is performed at all the chunk’s replicas. We use leases to maintain a consistent mutation order across replicas. The master grants a chunk lease to one of the replicas, which we call the primary. The primary picks a serial order for all mutations to the chunk. All replicas follow this order when applying mutations. Thus, the global mutation order is defined first by the lease grant order chosen by the master, and within a lease by the serial numbers assigned by the primary.

The lease mechanism is designed to minimize management overhead at the master. A lease has an initial timeout of 60 seconds. However, as long as the chunk is being mutated, the primary can request and typically receive extensions from the master indefinitely. These extension requests and grants are piggybacked on the HeartBeat messages regularly exchanged between the master and all chunkservers. The master may sometimes try to revoke a lease before it expires (e.g., when the master wants to disable mutations on a file that is being renamed). Even if the master loses communication with a primary, it can safely grant a new lease to another replica after the old lease expires.

In Figure 2, we illustrate this process by following the control flow of a write through these numbered steps. 

1. The client asks the master which chunkserver holds the current lease for the chunk and the locations of the other replicas. If no one has a lease, the master grants one to a replica it chooses (not shown). 

2. The master replies with the identity of the primary and the locations of the other (secondary) replicas. The client caches this data for future mutations. It needs to contact the master again only when the primary becomes unreachable or replies that it no longer holds a lease. 

3. The client pushes the data to all the replicas. A client can do so in any order. Each chunkserver will store the data in an internal LRU buffer cache until the data is used or aged out. By decoupling the data flow from the control flow, we can improve performance by scheduling the expensive data flow based on the network topology regardless of which chunkserver is the primary. Section 3.2 discusses this further.

4. Once all the replicas have acknowledged receiving the data, the client sends a write request to the primary. The request identifies the data pushed earlier to all of the replicas. The primary assigns consecutive serial numbers to all the mutations it receives, possibly from multiple clients, which provides the necessary serialization. It applies the mutation to its own local state in serial number order.

5. The primary forwards the write request to all secondary replicas. Each secondary replica applies mutations in the same serial number order assigned by the primary. 

6. The secondaries all reply to the primary indicating that they have completed the operation. 

7. The primary replies to the client. Any errors encountered at any of the replicas are reported to the client. In case of errors, the write may have succeeded at the primary and an arbitrary subset of the secondary replicas. (If it had failed at the primary, it would not have been assigned a serial number and forwarded.) The client request is considered to have failed, and the modified region is left in an inconsistent state. Our client code handles such errors by retrying the failed mutation. It will make a few attempts at steps (3) through (7) before falling back to a retry from the beginning of the write.

If a write by the application is large or straddles a chunk boundary, GFS client code breaks it down into multiple write operations. They all follow the control flow described above but may be interleaved with and overwritten by concurrent operations from other clients. Therefore, the shared file region may end up containing fragments from different clients, although the replicas will be identical because the individual operations are completed successfully in the same order on all replicas. This leaves the file region in consistent but undefined state as noted in Section 2.7.

3.2 Data Flow 

We decouple the flow of data from the flow of control to use the network efficiently. While control flows from the client to the primary and then to all secondaries, data is pushed linearly along a carefully picked chain of chunkservers in a pipelined fashion. Our goals are to fully utilize each machine’s network bandwidth, avoid network bottlenecks and high-latency links, and minimize the latency to push through all the data. 

To fully utilize each machine’s network bandwidth, the data is pushed linearly along a chain of chunkservers rather than distributed in some other topology (e.g., tree). Thus, each machine’s full outbound bandwidth is used to transfer the data as fast as possible rather than divided among multiple recipients. 

To avoid network bottlenecks and high-latency links (e.g., inter-switch links are often both) as much as possible, each machine forwards the data to the “closest” machine in the network topology that has not received it. Suppose the client is pushing data to chunkservers S1 through S4. It sends the data to the closest chunkserver, say S1. S1 forwards it to the closest chunkserver S2 through S4 closest to S1, say S2. Similarly, S2 forwards it to S3 or S4, whichever is closer to S2, and so on. Our network topology is simple enough that “distances” can be accurately estimated from IP addresses.

Pipelining - Google and learn more about it. HTTP pipelining - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTTP_pipelining

Finally, we minimize latency by pipelining the data transfer over TCP connections. Once a chunkserver receives some data, it starts forwarding immediately. Pipelining is especially helpful to us because we use a switched network with full-duplex links. Sending the data immediately does not reduce the receive rate. Without network congestion, the ideal elapsed time for transferring B bytes to R replicas is B/T + RL where T is the network throughput and L is latency to transfer bytes between two machines. Our network links are typically 100 Mbps (T), and L is far below 1 ms. Therefore, 1 MB can ideally be distributed in about 80 ms.

3.3 Atomic Record Appends 

GFS provides an atomic append operation called record append. In a traditional write, the client specifies the offset at which data is to be written. Concurrent writes to the same region are not serializable: the region may end up containing data fragments from multiple clients. In a record append, however, the client specifies only the data. GFS appends it to the file at least once atomically (i.e., as one continuous sequence of bytes) at an offset of GFS’s choosing and returns that offset to the client. This is similar to writing to a file opened in O APPEND mode in Unix without the race conditions when multiple writers do so concurrently.

Record append is heavily used by our distributed applications in which many clients on different machines append to the same file concurrently. Clients would need additional complicated and expensive synchronization, for example through a distributed lock manager, if they do so with traditional writes. In our workloads, such files often serve as multiple-producer/single-consumer queues or contain merged results from many different clients.

Record append is a kind of mutation and follows the control flow in Section 3.1 with only a little extra logic at the primary. The client pushes the data to all replicas of the last chunk of the file Then, it sends its request to the primary. The primary checks to see if appending the record to the current chunk would cause the chunk to exceed the maximum size (64 MB). If so, it pads the chunk to the maximum size, tells secondaries to do the same, and replies to the client indicating that the operation should be retried on the next chunk. (Record append is restricted to be at most one-fourth of the maximum chunk size to keep worst-case fragmentation at an acceptable level.) If the record fits within the maximum size, which is the common case, the primary appends the data to its replica, tells the secondaries to write the data at the exact offset where it has, and finally replies success to the client.

If a record append fails at any replica, the client retries the operation. As a result, replicas of the same chunk may contain different data possibly including duplicates of the same record in whole or in part. GFS does not guarantee that all replicas are bytewise identical. It only guarantees that the data is written at least once as an atomic unit. This property follows readily from the simple observation that for the operation to report success, the data must have been written at the same offset on all replicas of some chunk. Furthermore, after this, all replicas are at least as long as the end of record and therefore any future record will be assigned a higher offset or a different chunk even if a different replica later becomes the primary. In terms of our consistency guarantees, the regions in which successful record append operations have written their data are defined (hence consistent), whereas intervening regions are inconsistent (hence undefined). Our applications can deal with inconsistent regions as we discussed in Section 2.7.2.







Sunday, November 7, 2021

Former PayPal CEO on why he thinks bitcoin is going to zero

Nov. 7, 2021

Here is the link. 

Bill Harris, former PayPal CEO, think bitcoin is heading lower — way lower.


NVDA stock: From 2016 60 bagger return

 受益于全球芯片需求量加大,最近再叠加布局元宇宙市场,自今年年初以来,英伟达市值已涨超 100%,超越股神巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦,成为美股第七大上市公司。自 2015 年以来,公司股价累计涨幅已超过 60 倍。

富国银行(Wells Fargo)将英伟达的股票价格从 245 美元跳高到 320 美元!原因是 "英伟达将是元宇宙的入口硬件"。脸书一直在谈论的 " 元宇宙 " 概念,实际上在未来 5 年为英伟达提供了 100 亿美元的增值市场份额的机会。

Omniverse 在其中发挥了一定作用,但该行也预计英伟达将从为 Metaverse 所需的重要计算中获益。

英伟达于 2021 年 8 月 10 日曾宣布,全球首个为元宇宙建立提供基础的模拟和协作平台— NVIDIAOmniverse 将通过与 Blender 和 Adobe 集成来实现大规模扩展,并将向数百万新用户开放。

11 月 1 日报道,英伟达媒体和娱乐行业总经理 Richard Kerris 接受采访时表示,元宇宙作为相互连通的虚拟世界,将很快成为现实。

他说:" 你可能认为你不会进入元宇宙,但我保证在五年内,我们所有人都会以这样或那样的方式进入其中。顶级公司也将建立在相互连接的虚拟世界之上。"

目前,英伟达正积极布局该领域,包括利用其芯片帮助渲染元宇宙世界。

虽说英伟达最近一段时间上涨 " 蹭 " 了元宇宙概念,但它真的有实力也不能否认。8 月份最近一次财报,英伟达营收总计 65.1 亿美元(约合 422.77 亿人民币),创季度营收记录,净利润 23.74 亿美元(约合 154.17 亿人民币),同比增长 282%。

细分来看,英伟达最主要的收入来源还是游戏业务,二季度游戏营收为 30.61 亿美元(约合 198.78 亿人民币),同比增长 85%;数据中心业务营收则为 23.66 亿美元(约合 153.65 亿人民币),同比增幅为 35%。同比涨幅最快的则是英伟达的 OEM 以及其他业务,二季度营收 1.09 亿美元(约合 7.07 亿人民币),同比增长 180%。

在此次财报电话会议上,CEO 黄仁勋也谈到了 Omniverse 技术,回答了什么是 Omniverse 和该项技术能做什么等问题。

他认为,Omniverse 是一个基于物理且准确的模拟器。英伟达的光线追踪技术和计算 / 模拟物理技术是 Omniverse 的基础。光线追踪技术能够模仿物理世界中的光行为;而通过人工智能,英伟达可以床架架构在云中模拟物理世界,并将其扩展到非常大的系统中。

目前,英伟达正在和皮克斯、苹果合作,用 Omniverse 模拟音乐会、主题公园、未来工厂等,成为虚拟世界的门户。

TSLA vs APPL stock: TSLA 1000% gain in two years | APPL 500% gain starting from 2016

Nov. 7, 2021

My notes:

  1. 成功的投资者往往选择老朋友,老朋友好过新朋友。
  2. “如果有一样东西,你感觉不踏实,它再好也可能挣不到这个钱,你会在患得患失中错失这只股票。而只有确定性高,你才敢在困难时期坚持,才能真正享受到时间的复利。”正如一位资深投资者所说。
  3. 确定性高 - I need to learn better on this topic
  4. 索罗斯所言:“如果投资成了娱乐,如果你从中得到乐趣,那么你可能根本挣不到钱。真正的投资是乏味的。”

TSLA vs APPL stock  

巴菲特似乎宝刀老矣,而特斯拉董事长马斯克更是嘲笑老巴的工作是“枯燥并且乏味的”。


事实上,尽管特斯拉两年上涨了十倍,但巴菲特重仓持有的苹果自2016年以来也涨幅接近5倍。即使全球最成功的成长股捕手柏基投资在特斯拉上的最高持仓也不过一成仓位,巴菲特对苹果的持仓却超过4成仓位。

仓位多寡是投资的重要语言,从投资收益的角度来说,重仓苹果意味着“枯燥且乏味”的巴菲特至少没有跑输特斯拉。这是个简单的算术题,若投资一成仓位在特斯拉上,特斯拉上涨十倍对于全部本金来说也只相当于涨了一倍,但4成仓位投资于苹果,苹果上涨5倍对于全部本金来说就是上涨了约两倍。更何况,这场大戏并未结束,特斯拉未来能否跑赢苹果尚不得而知。

无论从产品端还是股价来说,特斯拉这两年无疑更引人注目,而苹果的表现相对按部就班。但真正好的投资本身就是乏味的。对于顶尖投资者来说,投资与创业极其不同,创业追求的是激情四射,而投资追求的是夜夜安枕。正如索罗斯所言:“如果投资成了娱乐,如果你从中得到乐趣,那么你可能根本挣不到钱。真正的投资是乏味的。”

乏味可能才是投资中的真意

普通投资者喜欢热血沸腾地追逐一个又一个貌似无限可能的新风口,但成功的投资者却冷静长期持有自己钟情的个股。数年如一日持有一只股票会是什么感觉?正常的回答可能都是“乏味”,但“乏味”也可能是投资中的真意,它意味着本金的安全,而厌恶风险是所有投资大师的共同特征。

成熟的投资者极其相似。在2016年,北欧最大银行Nordea Bank的股票投资负责人纳斯曾说过,“苹果已经是一个乏味公司,股票风险不大,可以买入。”而巴菲特也正是在2016年开始买入苹果的。

对于老谋深算的巴菲特来说,这是一场胜算很高的投资,这场投资布局表现出了顶尖投资人的智慧。数据显示,苹果2016年的市值为6000多亿美金,而苹果公司账上的现金及现金等价物和短期投资高达671亿美元,苹果2016年的营业利润为460亿美元,这意味着当时苹果市值扣除了现金后所对应的动态市盈率仅为8倍。

苹果股票在2016年的表现并不算出色, iPhone及新款Macbook Pro问题频出,营收及利润在2016财年的四季度更是出现了15年来的首次同比下滑。但巴菲特却看中了苹果品牌的沉淀下来的力量,他声称“人们宁愿放弃一辆35000美金的车也不会放弃自己的苹果手机。”

这正是普通投资者总是对短期扰动因素给予较高权重,而成功投资者却能穿透信息干扰看到了一家企业长期竞争力的本质。

苹果正是一面镜子,照出了巴菲特的投资观:格雷厄姆式的低价格+费雪式的好公司。事实上,只有当市场将一只股票打上“乏味”的标签,低价格才能产生。当低价与好公司相结合时,投资就迎来击球的“甜蜜区”,难怪巴菲特将苹果一直买到了4成以上的仓位。

碳减排和新能源汽车的前景令人心动,特斯拉的产品的确炫酷,但特斯拉并不符合巴菲特的投资标准。用巴菲特搭档芒格的话来说,“不知道比特币达到5万美元更疯狂,还是特斯拉达到1万亿美金的市值更疯狂。”

段永平对特斯拉也曾说得更直白:“我认为一家公司不诚信的话,我就不碰了,比如特斯拉。”在段永平看来,买一只股票往往要很多理由,不买往往一两个理由就够了。

老朋友胜过新朋友

在投资中,很多投资者感叹“拿住股票很难”,这是因为外界诱惑常在,人性总是天生喜新厌旧,对新的可能性充满无限向往,对一夜暴富抱有期望。投资者往往对扭亏为盈、新概念和高成长类可能性公司更敏感,但对于长期业绩优异的确定性公司却视而不见。

在经典的投资案例中,价值投资者恰恰相反,他们更看重业绩的确定性,而不是未来的可能性,因此可以数年如一日持有业绩优异的公司。

王富济持有片仔癀12年收益超过60倍。王富济是在2009年报年报中首次进入片仔癀前十大流通股股东的,2021年三季报中,王富济仍然位居片仔癀第二大流通股股东,共持有2703万股,持股市值高达110亿元。

巴菲特持有喜诗糖果长达50年时间。1972年初,蓝筹印花公司以2500万美元的价格购买了喜诗糖果,喜诗糖果当时的税后利润是200万美元。自1984年以来,喜诗糖果每年都能创造2500万美元以上的利润。

特斯拉10倍涨幅令人炫目,而柏基投资也是默默持有了6年后,才迎来大放光彩的时刻。

在投资大师们心中,确定性的优先级别高于可能性的,只有可能性而缺少确定性是难以形成长期重仓的信念,也只有长期重仓才能享受到时间的复利,最终的投资收益对整个仓位形成有意义的影响。

“如果有一样东西,你感觉不踏实,它再好也可能挣不到这个钱,你会在患得患失中错失这只股票。而只有确定性高,你才敢在困难时期坚持,才能真正享受到时间的复利。”正如一位资深投资者所说。

在投资中,老朋友往往不负你,而新朋友则可能让你损失惨重。回首2013年主题投资盛行的市场,手游、影视、智能穿戴、3D打印等新概念因为引发人们无限想象而备受追捧,但事后都是不了了之。

芒格曾说过,“我的利润主要来自对老朋友的愚忠。”在相同的情况下,成功的投资者往往选择老朋友,老朋友好过新朋友。在他们看来,由于经过长期的紧密跟踪,老朋友可以知根知底,一旦出现风险,也容易辨别风险的影响程度,便于快速决策。但对于新的标的,投资人很多情况下是不知道“自己不知道”,“盲人骑瞎马,夜半临深池”,致自己于危险境地。


Comcast CEO Brian Roberts on Q1 earnings

Nov. 7, 2021

Here is the link. 

Comcast CEO Brian Roberts joins "Squawk Box" to discuss the company's quarterly results. Comcast is the parent company of CNBC.


Dish CEO Carlson on Comcast, Sling, Spectrum 5G

Nov. 7, 2021

Here is the link.

Sep.24 -- Erik Carlson, Dish Network Corp. president and chief executive officer discusses Comcast Corp.’s winning bid for Sky Plc,, competition for the company's Sling TV OTT service, and the deployment of its wireless spectrum assets . He speaks with Bloomberg's Ed Hammond on "Bloomberg Markets: European Close."



Comcast CEO on Media Technology in the Future | Fortune

Nov. 7, 2021

Here is the link. 

I like to invest Comcast first time in my life. I just could not believe that the date shared by CEO in his interview shocked me. 

Starting from 1972, SP 500 index return is 15 times less money compared to Comcast. 

My goal

I have to learn more about Comcast business by watching interview of CEO. 

Take  my notes and train myself to listen better from the interview: 

  1. Grow - revenue and cash flow, every quarter grow business;
  2. Return - 18%, 30 yrs, much better compared to SP 500 index; 10 times more return. 
  3. Invest time on training, talking, and culture - Orlando, California, ...



Comcast CEO Brian Roberts: Content and Connectivity | Mad Money | CNBC

Nov. 7, 2021

Here is the link. 

Believe it or not, Jim Cramer didn’t come to Philly just to watch the Eagles. He also paid a visit to the mothership, meaning Comcast, the owner of NBC Universal. Watch his interview with CEO Brian Roberts. » Subscribe to CNBC: http://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBC » Watch more Mad Money here: http://bit.ly/WatchMadMoney » Read more about Comcast here: https://cnb.cx/2wMUtDr "Mad Money" takes viewers inside the mind of one of Wall Street's most respected and successful money managers. Jim Cramer is your personal guide through the confusing jungle of Wall Street investing, navigating through both opportunities and pitfalls with one goal in mind -- to try to help you make money. About CNBC: From 'Wall Street' to 'Main Street' to award winning original documentaries and Reality TV series, CNBC has you covered. Experience special sneak peeks of your favorite shows, exclusive video and more.


卡夫食品公司(Kraft Foods Inc.)

 品牌介绍:   

  卡夫食品公司(Kraft Foods Inc.)成立于1852年,是美国最大的食品和饮料企业,世界第二大食品公司,北美最大的食品生产商,现直属于菲利普·莫里斯公司(全世界最大消费品集团)。卡夫已拥有100多年的历史,卡夫在超过70个国家开展业务,其产品全球150个国家有售。卡夫北美及卡夫国际两个单位分别管理北美地区市场,以及欧洲及发展中国家市场。截至2009 年3月底,巴菲特旗下的巴郡持有1.067亿股卡夫股票,是持股量最多的机构投资者。

卡夫目前在纽约证券交易所上市。道琼斯宣布于2008年9月22日起,将AIG剔出道琼斯工业平均指数成份股,由卡夫食品取代,使卡夫成为道琼斯工业平均指数中唯一的食品制造公司。

  卡夫食品历史

  美国总公司历史

  创办人占士·卡夫(James L. Kraft)于1903年在美国芝加哥开展奶酪批发事业,经历第一次世界大战后生意渐上轨道,自1924年起上市,期间不时收购其他公司,并扩展至非食品业务。1988年Altria集团的前身菲利浦莫里斯收购卡夫食品,1989年菲利浦莫里斯将旗下的通用食品(General Foods)与卡夫合并为Kraft General Foods。2000年菲利浦莫里斯收购纳贝斯克后再拼入卡夫食品。2007年1月卡夫食品脱离Altria集团独立。2007年7月收购竞争对手达能(Danone)的饼干业务。

  卡夫食品由艾琳·罗森费尔德(Irene B. Rosenfeld)女士执掌,她在卡夫服务超过20年,曾专责卡夫和纳贝斯克(Nabisco)的合并,2001年更协助卡夫食品成功上市。2003年集团母公司Altria(其前身为菲利浦莫里斯)宣布提升两名主管贝斯·豪顿(Betsy D Holden)和戴洛梅迪(Roger K Deromedi)担任联合首席执行长(Co-CEO)之后,她过档百事旗下的马铃薯片生产分部Frito-Lay。自2006年6月起回朝任行政总裁,2007年3月兼任公司主席。她在2008年福布斯全球100位权力女性排行榜中名列第6。

  2004年11月15日,卡夫食品以14.8亿美元现金将自家糖果业务出售给箭牌 包括卡夫的Altoids牌薄荷口香糖、Life Savers糖果、Creme Savers糖果以及Trolli橡皮糖和Sugus瑞士糖等品牌

  2007年7月3日卡夫食品以53亿欧元(72亿美元)现金收购达能全球饼干业务。达能旗下的饼干包括LU、王子、闲趣、甜趣等。其中LU饼干是欧洲第一大畅销饼干品牌

2010年01月05日卡夫以37亿美元现金,把美国及加拿大的的速冻薄饼业务出售给雀巢。该业务包括的比萨品牌有DiGiorno,Tombstone,CaliforniaPizzaKitchen(加州匹萨厨房)),Jack s和Delissio。

  2010年1月19日,卡夫同意以每股8.4英镑,收购价包括5英镑现金及0.1874股卡夫新股(2.65亿股)换取1股吉百利股票总价值约120亿英镑(197亿美元)收购吉百利-。卡夫成功收购吉百利后,新组成的集团每年可以拥有销售额500亿美元,成为全球最大糖果生产商,市场占有率达14.8%

  华人社会发展

  卡夫于1982年及1984年分别进入台湾和中国大陆市场,并于1962年进入香港,目前中国大陆地区总部设在上海。在大陆地区共有2500多名员工,研发中心位于苏州和广州。4家工厂分别设于北京、天津、苏州和广州。卡夫大陆地区所有工厂均获得ISO 9001国际质量体系认证。

  三地各有分公司处理业务,中国大陆为卡夫食品(中国)有限公司,香港为卡夫食品有限公司(香港),台湾为卡夫食品股份有限公司(台湾)。

  达能公司于2009年加入卡夫集团(中国大陆),而香港总代理为大昌华嘉