CPI - May 11, 2022 | Bear market vs correction | Nasdaq bear market | My research

 Here is the article. 

April’s consumer price index report expected to show inflation has already peaked

PUBLISHED TUE, MAY 10 20225:29 PM EDTUPDATED TUE, MAY 10 20226:35 PM EDT

Key points

1. Investors are eyeing what could be a pivotal consumer price index report for April, anticipating that the data shows inflation has already reached its height.
2. Economists warn that prices could remain elevated. The issue is how fast inflation could decline when it comes to determining how the Federal Reserve will respond with interest rate hikes.
3. CPI is expected to rise 0.2% in April or 8.1% on an annualized basis. That’s compared with a 1.2% monthly increase or 8.5% gain year-over-year in March.

April’s consumer price index report is expected to show inflation has already reached a peak — a development that some investors say could temporarily soothe markets.

But economists say, even with a reprieve in headline inflation, core inflation could gain on a monthly basis and stay elevated for months to come. Core inflation excludes food and energy costs.

The CPI report is expected to show headline inflation rose 0.2% in April, or 8.1% year-over-year, according to Dow Jones. That compares with a whopping 1.2% increase in March, or an 8.5% gain year-over-year. The April data is expected at 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

Core CPI is expected to rise 0.4% or 6% year-over-year. That compares with 0.3% in March, or 6.5% on an annualized basis.

Consumer price index

All items in U.S. city average, percent change from year ago

Stocks gyrated Tuesday ahead of the much-anticipated data. The S&P 500 ended the day with a 0.25% gain, and the Nasdaq added 0.98%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 84.96 points.

The closely watched benchmark 10-year Treasury yield retreated to about 2.99% Tuesday after a sharp run up to 3.20% Monday. Bond yields — which move opposite price — have been running higher at a rapid pace on expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

“I wouldn’t say tomorrow’s CPI matters by itself. I think the combination of March, tomorrow’s and May’s data will kind of be the big inflection point,” said Ben Jeffery, a fixed income strategist at BMO.

But Jeffery said the report has a good chance of being a market mover, no matter what.

“I think it will either reassert the selling pressure we saw that took 10s to 3.20% ... Or I think it will inspire more dip-buying interest for investors who have been waiting for signs that inflation is starting to peak,” he said.

A potential turning point for stocks

In the stock market, some investors say the data could signal a turning point if April’s inflation comes in as expected or is even weaker.

“I think the market, from a technical standpoint, is very focused on trying to divine how much the Fed is going to move,” said Tony Roth, chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors.

A hotter report would be a negative since it could mean the Fed will take an even tougher stance on interest rates. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank could hike rates by 50 basis points, or a half-percent, at each of the next couple of meetings.

The market has been nervous about inflation and that the Fed’s response to it could trigger a recession.

“I don’t think this is the end of the drawdown in the market … The market needs to go down 20% at a minimum. If we get a series of better inflation data, then I think 20% could be the bottom,” Roth said. The S&P 500 is off nearly 17% from its high.

“If the inflation data is not as good as we think it will be, not just this month but consecutive months, then I think the market prices for a recession, and then it’s down 25% to 40%,” said Roth.

Two risks emerge

Roth said there are two potential exogenous risks in inflation data, and either could prove to be a problem for markets. One is the unknowns around the oil and gas supply strains and price shocks caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the other is China’s latest Covid-related shutdowns and the impact on supply chains.

“Nobody knows how they’re going to play out … Either one of these could be a bigger problem than the market is anticipating right now,” Roth said.

Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said she is expecting a hotter-than-consensus report, with 0.3% gain in headline CPI and a 0.5% jump in core. She thinks the market’s focus is wrong and investors should be concerned more with how much inflation can decline.

“I think a lot of folks are focusing on the year-over-year rate slowing, and I think that helps consumers because it looks like real wages will actually be positive for a change in April on a month-over-month basis,” she said. “But if we get that acceleration in core back to 0.5% that we are projecting, that’s a problem for the Fed. If you annualize that, you’re running at 6%, and that would really mean no slowdown.”

Markowska noted the central bank assumes inflation will slow to 4% this year and 2.5% next year. “The question we have to ask is are we on track to hit that forecast and if not, the Fed could have a bigger policy overshoot than they envisioned,” she said.

The perception is that inflation problems are supply chain-driven, but those issues are going away, Markowska added.

“I think that ship has sailed. We’re past supply chains. This is the services sector. This is the labor market,” she said. “Just because we peak and core goods inflation is coming down, that doesn’t fix the problem. The problem is now everywhere. It’s in services. It’s in the labor market, and that’s not going to go away on its own ... We need core inflation to get down to 0.2%, 0.3% month-over-month pace, and we need it to stay there for a while.”

Barclays U.S. economist Pooja Sriram said she does not think investors should get too excited about inflation peaking, since what will matter is how quickly the level comes down.

“For the Fed to be pacified that inflation is coming down, we need to get a really weak core CPI print,” she said. “Headline CPI is going to be hard to come down because the energy component is swinging.”

The energy index was up 11% in March, and it may be less of a contributor to overall inflation in April because gasoline prices fell. Economists say energy will be a bigger issue in May data, since gasoline is rising to record levels again.

Some economists expect used-car prices will come down in April, but Markowska said data she monitors shows increases at the retail level.

Could tomorrow's CPI data show inflation has peaked?

May 10, 2022

Here is the link. 

CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin joins Shep Smith to report on what investors expect to see from tomorrow's release of the Consumer Price Index, and whether it's possible inflation has peaked.

I'm bullish on the markets, says BMO's chief investment strategist Brian Belski

May 10, 2022

Here is the link. 

Brian Belski, BMO chief investment strategist, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss his view on the markets and economy. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2NGeIvi 

Investors

1. nervous
2. position for down side
3. no one for upside
4. 8.5% CPI | Federal is still high
5. Market ahead of Fed
6. Fed raise rate
7. Bond market
8. 2.6% percent
9. BMO's chief investment strategist - Brian Belski
10. CPI - inflation is peaked - May 11, 2022

SABRE | SABR equity research | Insider buyer | April 27, 2022 | John Scott, III

 

John Scott, III

Director

Mr. Scott joined the Company as a director in July 2020. He is an experienced executive in the hospitality, leisure and entertainment industries with more than 25 years of consumer facing business expertise across complex global, multi-unit, multi-brand enterprises. Mr. Scott is a founder and Chairman of Park House, a new private social club business located in Dallas, TX which is redefining the private social club model. He is also Chairman of A&O Hotels, the largest European hybrid hotel and hostel platform which owns and operates 40 assets with more than 25,000 beds and 7,000 rooms throughout Europe. Most recently Mr. Scott served from 2012 through 2015 as President, Chief Executive Officer and a Director of Belmond Ltd., previously Orient-Express Hotels Ltd., a publicly listed company engaged in the ownership and management of a global portfolio of 46 luxury hotel, restaurants, tourist trains and cruise businesses in 22 countries. Prior to joining Belmond Ltd., he served from 2003 until 2011 as President and Chief Executive Officer of Rosewood Hotels & Resorts, an international luxury hotel ownership and management company. Mr. Scott previously served on the board of Kimpton Hotels and Restaurants, a private hotel and restaurant management company, SMU COX School of Business, and Cedar Fair Entertainment, a leading North American amusement park owner and operator, and currently serves as a director of Subway Restaurants.

Sanbre | Stock insider buy and sell

 May 10, 2022

I like to work on Sabr stock research. I did purchase 5000 shares of SABR stock with average purchased price $9.75/ share. 

Ameritrade.com | SABR stock | Insider buyer 

George made purchase SABR stock, on April 29, 2022, price: $10.95, shares: 14,612⁽¹⁾

George R. Bravante Jr.

Director

Mr. Bravante joined the Company as a director in December 2014.  He is the co-founder and the managing member of the general partner of Bravante-Curci Investors, LP, an investment firm focusing on real estate investments in California. Mr. Bravante has held this position since 1996.  Since 2005, he has also been the owner of Bravante Produce, a grower, packer and shipper of premium California table grapes and citrus.  Previously, he served as chairman of the board of ExpressJet Holdings, Inc. from 2005 to 2010 and was a member of its board from 2004 to 2010. From 1994 to 1996, Mr. Bravante was President and Chief Operating Officer of Colony Advisors, Inc., a real estate asset management company, and prior to that he was President and Chief Operating Officer of America Real Estate Group, Inc., where he led strategic management, restructuring and disposition of assets.  He serves as a director of KBS Growth & Income REIT, Inc., a real estate investment trust.

Calculating Risk and Reward

 By Time Parker, Investopedia

What Is the Risk/Reward Calculation?

Are you a risk-taker? When you're an individual trader in the stock market, one of the few safety devices you have is the risk/reward calculation. The actual calculation to determine risk vs. reward is very easy. You simply divide your net profit (the reward) by the price of your maximum risk.

Sadly, retail investors might end up losing a lot of money when they try to invest their own money. There are many reasons for this, but one of those comes from the inability of individual investors to manage risk. Risk/reward is a common term in financial vernacular, but what does it mean?

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Calculate risk vs. reward by dividing your net profit (the reward) by the price of your maximum risk.
• To incorporate risk/reward calculations into your research, pick a stock, set the upside and downside targets based on the current price, and calculate the risk/reward.
• If the risk/reward is below your threshold, raise your downside target to attempt to achieve an acceptable ratio; if you can't achieve an acceptable ratio, start with a different investment.

Understanding Risk vs. Reward

Investing money into the markets has a high degree of risk and you should be compensated if you're going to take that risk. If somebody you marginally trust asks for a $50 loan and offers to pay you $60 in two weeks, it might not be worth the risk, but what if they offered to pay you $100? The risk of losing $50 for the chance to make $100 might be appealing.

That's a 2:1 risk/reward, which is a ratio where a lot of professional investors start to get interested because it allows investors to double their money. Similarly, if the person offered you $150, then the ratio goes to 3:1.

Now let's look at this in terms of the stock market. Assume you did your research and found a stock you like. You notice that XYZ stock is trading at $25, down from a recent high of $29.

You believe that if you buy now, in the not-so-distant future, XYZ will go back up to $29, and you can cash in. You have $500 to put toward this investment, so you buy 20 shares. You did all of your research, but do you know your risk/reward ratio? If you're like most individual investors, you probably don't. 

Special Considerations

Before we learn if our XYZ trade is a good idea from a risk perspective, what else should we know about this risk/reward ratio? First, although a little bit of behavioral economics finds its way into most investment decisions, risk/reward is completely objective. It's a calculation and the numbers don't lie.

Second, each individual has their own tolerance for risk. You may love bungee jumping, but somebody else might have a panic attack just thinking about it.

Next, risk/reward gives you no indication of probability. What if you took your $500 and played the lottery? Risking $500 to gain millions is a much better investment than investing in the stock market from a risk/reward perspective, but a much worse choice in terms of probability.

In the course of holding a stock, the upside number is likely to change as you continue analyzing new information. If the risk/reward becomes unfavorable, don't be afraid to exit the trade. Never find yourself in a situation where the risk/reward ratio isn't in your favor. 

How to Calculate Risk/Reward

Remember, to calculate risk/reward, you divide your net profit (the reward) by the price of your maximum risk. Using the XYZ example above, if your stock went up to $29 per share, you would make $4 for each of your 20 shares for a total of $80. You paid $500 for it, so you would divide 80 by 500 which gives you 0.16.

That means that your risk/reward for this idea is 0.16:1. Most professional investors won't give the idea a second look at such a low risk/reward ratio, so this is a terrible idea. Or is it?

Using the Risk/Reward Calculation

To incorporate risk/reward calculations into your research, follow these steps:

Pick a stock using exhaustive research.

2. Set the upside and downside targets based on the current price.

3. Calculate the risk/reward.

4. If it is below your threshold, raise your downside target to attempt to achieve an acceptable ratio.

5. If you can't achieve an acceptable ratio, start over with a different investment idea.

Once you start incorporating risk/reward, you will quickly notice that it's difficult to find good investment or trade ideas. The pros comb through, sometimes, hundreds of charts each day looking for ideas that fit their risk/reward profile. Don't shy away from this. The more meticulous you are, the better your chances of making money.

Limiting Risk and Stop Losses

Unless you're an inexperienced stock investor, you would never let that $500 go all the way to zero. Your actual risk isn't the entire $500.

Every good investor has a stop-loss or a price on the downside that limits their risk. If you set a $29 sell limit price as the upside, maybe you set $20 as the maximum downside. Once your stop-loss order reaches $20, you sell it and look for the next opportunity.

Because we limited our downside, we can now change our numbers a bit. Your new profit stays the same at $80, but your risk is now only $100 ($5 maximum loss multiplied by the 20 shares that you own), or 80/100 = 0.8:1. This is still not ideal.

What if we raised our stop-loss price to $23, risking only $2 per share or $40 loss in total? Remember, 80/40 is 2:1, which is acceptable. Some investors won't commit their money to any investment that isn't at least 4:1, but 2:1 is considered the minimum by most. Of course, you have to decide for yourself what the acceptable ratio is for you.

Notice that to achieve the risk/reward profile of 2:1, we didn't change the top number. When you did your research and concluded that the maximum upside was $29, that was based on technical analysis and fundamental research. If we were to change the top number, in order to achieve an acceptable risk/reward, we're now relying on hope instead of good research.

The Bottom Line

Every good investor knows that relying on hope is a losing proposition. Being more conservative with your risk is always better than being more aggressive with your reward. Risk/reward is always calculated realistically, yet conservatively.

Cognitive vs. Emotional Investing Bias: What’s the Difference?

 

Cognitive vs. Emotional Investing Bias: An Overview

Everybody has biases. We make judgments about people, opportunities, government policies, and of course, the markets. When we analyze our world with our own biases, we put our observations through a number of filters manufactured by our experiences, and we're not just talking about stock screeners. We're talking about the filters we put our decisions through that sometimes make them biased. Individuals may or may not necessarily rationalize that their decisions are being made based on biases they have developed.

In general, all kinds of day-to-day activities are primarily driven by behavioral patterns. These same behavioral patterns can also influence investing actions.

For most people, it is impossible to be unbiased in investment decision-making. However, investors can mitigate biases by understanding and identifying them, then creating trading and investing rules that mitigate them when necessary. Broadly, investing biases fall into two main categories: cognitive and emotional. Both biases are usually the result of a prejudice for choosing one thing over the other.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Identifying and understanding unprofitable cognitive and emotional biases can help a trader improve their total return.
• Cognitive biases involve basing decisions on established concepts that may or may not be true.
• Emotional biases are often spontaneous. They involve basing decisions on individual feelings.

What Is Cognitive Bias?

Cognitive biases generally involve decision-making based on established concepts that may or may not be accurate. Think of a cognitive bias as a rule of thumb that may or may not be factual.

We’ve all seen movies where a thief wears a police uniform to pass through a security checkpoint. The real police officers assume that because the person is wearing a uniform like theirs, they must be a real police officer. That’s an example of a cognitive bias.

What does a fake cop have to do with your investment choices? You make the same types of assumptions that may or may not necessarily be true. Here are some examples:

• Confirmation Bias: Have you noticed that you put more weight into the opinions of those who agree with you? Investors do this too. How often have you analyzed a stock and later researched reports that supported your thesis instead of seeking out information that may poke holes in your opinion? 
• Gambler's Fallacy: Let’s assume that the S&P has closed to the upside five trading sessions in a row. You place a short trade on the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) because you believe chances are high that the market will drop on the sixth day. While it may happen, on a purely statistical basis, the past events don’t connect to future events. There may be other reasons why the sixth day will produce a down market, but the fact that the market is up five consecutive days is irrelevant. 
• Status Quo Bias: Humans are creatures of habit. Resistance to change spills over to investment portfolios through the act of repeatedly coming back to the same stocks and ETFs instead of researching new ideas. Although investing in companies you understand is a sound investment strategy, having a short list of go-to products might limit your profit potential. 
• Risk-Averse Bias: The bull market is alive and well, yet many investors have missed the rally because of the fear that it will reverse course. Risk-averse bias often causes investors to put more weight on bad news than good news. These types of investors typically overweigh safe, conservative investments and look to these investments more actively when markets are rocky. This bias can potentially cause the effects of risk to hold more weight than the possibility of reward. 
• Bandwagon Effect: Warren Buffett became one of the most successful investors in the world by resisting the bandwagon effect. His famous advice to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy is a denouncement of this bias. Going back to confirmation bias, investors feel better when they are investing along with the crowd. But as Buffett has proven, an opposite mentality, after exhaustive research, may prove more profitable.

What Is Emotional Bias?

Emotional biases typically occur spontaneously based on the personal feelings of an individual at the time a decision is made. They may also be deeply rooted in personal experiences that also influence decision-making.

Emotional biases are usually ingrained in the psychology of investors and can generally be harder to overcome than cognitive biases. Emotional biases are not necessarily always errors. In some cases, an investor’s emotional bias may help them to make a more protective and suitable decision for themselves.

Here are a few examples:

• Loss-Aversion Bias: Do you have a stock in your portfolio that is down so much that you can’t stomach the thought of selling? In reality, if you sold the stock, the money that is left could be reinvested into a higher-quality stock. But because you don’t want to admit that the loss has gone from a computer screen to real money, you hold on in hopes that you will, one day, make it back to even. 
• Overconfidence Bias: “I have an edge that you (and others) do not.” A person with overconfidence bias believes that their skill as an investor is better than others' skills. Take, for example, the person who works in the pharmaceutical industry. They may believe in having the ability to trade within that sector at a higher level than other traders. The market has made fools out of the most respected traders. It can do the same to you. 
• Endowment Bias: Similar to loss-aversion bias, this is the idea that what we do own is more valuable than what we do not. Remember that losing stock? Others in its sector may show more signs of health but the investor won’t sell because they still believe, as before, it’s the best in its sector.

Key Differences

In general, a bias is usually the result of prejudice when choosing one thing over another. Biases can be influenced by experience, judgment, social norms, assumptions, academics, and more. Cognitive biases generally involve decision-making based on established concepts that may or may not be accurate. Emotional biases typically occur spontaneously based on the personal feelings of an individual at the time a decision is made. Emotional biases are usually not based on expansive conceptual reasoning. Both cognitive and emotional biases may or may not prove to be successful when influencing a decision.

Minimizing Unprofitable Biases

In investing, taking steps to minimize unprofitable biases can be extremely helpful in making more money.

A few examples include:

• Use a spreadsheet to calculate the risk/reward of every trade or investment. This can help in setting a threshold and never deviating from the rule.
• When you put a trade on, set an upside target. Once it reaches the target, sell the position.

One of the key ways to minimize unprofitable biases is to set objective trading rules and stick to them. Trading rules that mitigate unprofitable biases can help to override emotions and increase returns.

CVX stock: 2020, CRM stock -> Dow, CVX removed from DOW; Now it is opposite, CRM 50% loss from peak, CVX 100% return after 2020 August

 

2022 summer Vacation trip planning

May 8, 2022

Introduction

It is so exciting to talk to my friend over two hours. I like to put together a document and then help her to make plans for summer travel plan. 

Documents | Place to visit | Five day travel plan

1. Vansky.com -> Find airbnb hosted by Chinese, usually $50/ day 
2. Take a ferry to Victoria island -> catch sunset -> Baker mountain sightseeing
3. Grouse mountain - hiking, snow shoeing ends at the end of May
4. Stanley park - running, walking 
5. Suspension bridge - $50 dollars - annual pass - good idea to visit
6. Lynn valley - suspension bridge, hiking etc. 
7. Shannon fall -> way to Whistler -> driving 
8. Sea to sky, Gondonla, here is the link.
9. Deerlake walking - five KM
10. Chinese gourmet - dinning place - China town - 

Until we see the economy start to roll over, I'm not a buyer, says Short Hills' Steve Weiss

 May 7, 2022

Here is the link. 

Kevin O Leary

1. CVX, DD, CI, MRNA, UNH, HD, AAPL, JNJ, PG, PFE, BABA, TECHY

The rise of connected trips, blurred lines between leisure and business travel, and an accelerated pace of change

Leetcode | Top voted | PhoenixDD | Page 3

 

Leetcode | Top voted | PhoenixDD | Page 2

 

Leetcode | Top voted | PhoenixDD | Page 1

 

Leetcode | Top voted | votrubac | 15 algorithms to review | page 8

 

Leetcode | Top voted | votrubac | 15 algorithms to review | page 7

 

Leetcode | Top voted | votrubac | 15 algorithms to review | page 6

 

Leetcode | Top voted | votrubac | 15 algorithms to review | page 5

 

Leetcode | Top voted | votrubac | 15 algorithms to review | page 4

 

April 1 - May 4 2022 | Bear market | Technology stock investment | Travel, semiconductor

May 4, 2022

Introduction

It is the best learning experience to choose to invest on US economy. I like to write down the lessons I learn and how to make improvements. 

My purchase | Yahoo -> Finance -> Portfolio

Alex Xu | System design online book | 10 book chapters added | email notification | https://bytebytego.com/

 May 3, 2022

Here is the link. 

I plan to read those 10 book chapters about system design in the following:

1. 16 Design Google Drive
2. 17 Proximity Service
3. 18 Nearby Friends
4. 19 Google Maps
5. 20 Distributed Message Queue
6. 21 Metrics Monitoring and Alerting System
7. 22 Ad Click Event Aggregation
8. 23 Hotel Reservation System
9. 24 Distributed Email Service
10. 25 S3-like Object Storage
11. 26 Real-time Gaming Leaderboard
12. 27 Payment System
13. 28 Digital Wallet
14. 29 Stock Exchange
15. 30 The Learning Continues

SABR stock: My purchase of 2000 shares

 

SABR stock: Earnings date 8% loss -> Hilton - weak guidance

 

Expedia and other travel stocks drop after Hilton's guidance disappoints

10:20 AM | Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) | By: SA Editor Clark Schultz, SA News Editor

Expedia Group (NASDAQ:EXPE) turned around after an initial post-earnings rally and fell 11.33% in early Monday trading. Some traders have said that weak guidance from hotel heavyweight Hilton Worldwide is factoring in to the reversal. Other travel-related stocks like Booking Holdings (BKNG -5.2%), Airbnb (ABNB -4.8%), Marriott International (MAR -3.7%) and TripAdvisor (TRIP -2.4%) also moved lower. On Wall Street, Bank of America remained constructive on Expedia (EXPE) on multiple signs of latent travel demand from airlines, hotels and Visa earnings calls. The firm expects a big summer 2022 for travel. BofA kept a Buy rating on EXPE and clipped the price objective slightly to $225, which is based on a 50-50 blend of P/E and SOTP valuation, based on slightly lower 2023 estimates. Elsewhere, Deutsche Bank raised its price target on EXPE to $235 from $218, while Mizuho Securities upped its PT to $172 from $155 on the view that inflationary tailwinds will continue to support EBITDA in the near term.