What is Google doing with its open source teams?

 

Nothing good – the recent layoffs hit its best and brightest leaders hard

Fri 27 Jan 2023 // 10:34 UTC

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols

Remember when Google's motto was "Don't be Evil"? I do. Even though Google dumped that phrase from its code of conduct in 2018, many of us still thought Google was a bit better than other companies.

We were wrong. Those who were fired last week found out from emails, discovering they no longer had corporate access and their ID badges no longer worked. Class act, Google.

How were they chosen? Good question. It has been widely reported that some of the firing was done by an algorithm. Those fired included staffers who had just received high performance reviews or held top managerial positions with annual compensation packages of $500,000 to $1 million. But, as I looked at who was being fired, something struck me. Many of those shown the doors were the best of the best in Google's open source program office (OSPO) and other open source efforts.

For example, Chris DiBona, who founded Google's OSPO 18 years ago, was let go. As was Jeremy Allison, co-creator of Samba and Google engineer; Cat Allman, former Program Manager for Developer EcoSystems; and Dave Lester, a new hire who was taking ownership of Google's open source security initiatives.

These are not the people anyone in their right mind, or HR container, would want to fire. They are open source movers and shakers. In open source leadership circles, they're people everyone knows and are happy to work with.

What the hell, Google?

Maybe Sundar Pichai, Larry Page, or Sergey Brin know what's going on. No one in Google's rank and file does. As one Google executive told me: "We won't know the full impact for a little bit – everyone is still listed as an employee and is still in the org chart. I don't think the managers know anything beyond their immediate direct reports. It's been a mess with little to no communication."

It certainly can't be because Google doesn't need open source expertise. Google lives and dies on open source software. It also can't be because Google is switching its focus to AI in the wake of ChatGPT. True, Google AI Lab, after a rough few months, was left untouched.

But let me throw some prominent AI/ML toolkit and framework names by you: PyTorch, TensorFlow, and Rasa. What do they all have in common? Why, they're all open source! Imagine that! This was no time for Google to let its best and brightest open source personnel go.

So why did Google do this? Not to mention firing thousands of other good people? It's not because Google's bottom line is hurting. Its parent company, Alphabet, reported third quarter revenues of $69.1 billion, up 6 percent versus last year or up 11 percent on a constant currency basis. Profit was down 16 percent but still came in at $46.34 billion.

Just making billions isn't enough for some people. The New York Times heralded the news with "Alphabet's Profit Drops 27 Percent From a Year Earlier." That November news was "bad" enough for activist hedge fund investor TCI Fund Management to cry: "The company has too many employees, and the cost per employee is too high."

True, Google pays top dollar. "The average compensation at Google was $295,884 in 2021." That is real money. But the cost of living in Mountain View, California, home of Google's HQ, on a scale where 100 is the US average is 278.8. To put that in more concrete terms, the median cost for a house is $1,880,600.

TCI admitted that: "Alphabet employs some of the most talented and brightest computer scientists and engineers, but these represent only a fraction of the employee base." True, but it's not the administrative and marketing staff making that kind of money. And, by the way, Google just got rid of some of its "most talented and brightest."

Of course, hedge funds are run by beancounters interested only in short-term profit. They couldn't care less about whether Google, or any other company, actually delivers good products and services.

It's all about the money. TCI leader Sir Christopher Hohn, who is reported to have paid himself £1.5 million ($1.8 million) a day in 2022, knows all about that. That's six Google employees' yearly salaries a day for those counting at home.

Given that, it should be no surprise that Hohn called Google's chopping thousands a "step in the right direction." But it's not enough. Hohn thinks Google's "management should aim to reduce headcount to around 150,000… This would require a total headcount reduction in the order of 20 percent."

But wait, there's more! Hohn also wants Google to cut "excessive employee compensation." That's rich from someone paying himself over $75,000 an hour whether he's awake, drinking, or sleeping.

Google would be wisest to stop listening to pushy investors and pay more attention to preserving their real wealth: the company's brilliant developers and leaders. 

Catalytic converter theft continues to rise

 Here is the link.

Palladium, platinum, and rhodium, worth 15 times more

The troubling trend of thieves targeting cars for their catalytic converters are leaving car owners with pricey repair bills.

 MARKETS

Thieves Mine Catalytic Converters for Metal More Valuable Than Gold

As palladium prices soar, criminals are on the prowl for the emissions-control devices

Soaring palladium prices are inspiring an unusual band of criminals: catalytic converter thieves.

The exhaust-control devices common in most cars contain the silvery white precious metal, whose prices have climbed more than 50% since mid-August. Palladium is now more expensive than gold.

A supply squeeze, stricter environmental standards and the increased demand for cleaner-burning gasoline engines—which require converters with more palladium—means demand for the metal both among auto makers and thieves is likely to remain high.

Police in Chicago say perpetrators, who harvest the devices and sell the scrap metal, have converter theft down to a fine art.

“What tends to happen is that in the middle of the night, a group of guys come by with a truck and a reciprocating saw. They cut out the converter, throw it in the truck and drive away,” said Howard Ludwig, public information officer at the Chicago Police Department.

“They’ll tend to hit several blocks in the same evening with at least one guy driving the [getaway] vehicle and one underneath the car.”

Catalytic converters sit in the undercarriage of a car between the engine and the tailpipe, capturing toxic gases and particles. They use metals such as palladium, rhodium and platinum to transform the pollutants into less harmful types of exhaust.

“We’ve had three different sets of parking lots hit, and they usually get four or five vehicles each time,” said police Lt. Chuck Nagle in Vestavia Hills, Ala., a small city outside of Birmingham.

“They’re usually taking them out of state and getting anywhere from $150 to $200 at a clip….They’re not selling the part. They’re selling the metal,” Lt. Nagle added.

His department has tried and failed to track down the devices to scrapyards. He figures thieves are taking the devices to other states where scrapyards don’t require showing identification, which can be a deterrent to thieves trying to sell stolen parts and materials.

“It’s mainly produced as a byproduct from platinum in South Africa and nickel in Russia, so a price increase does not necessarily lead to higher mine production,” said Carsten Fritsch, a commodity analyst at Commerzbank.

The tarnished reputation of diesel vehicles following the Volkswagen emissions scandal has only boosted demand for cleaner-burning gasoline engines. Because those engines require converters with more palladium, the price has soared—as has theft on both sides of the Atlantic.

While there are no hard statistics on catalytic converter crimes, London’s Metropolitan Police said in a statement that since September last year, they have become increasingly concerned about the rise in thefts of catalytic converters.

George Crosbie, a 67-year-old retiree in Southeast London, was heading out for a round of golf in December when he noticed something wrong with his Toyota Prius.

“It wasn’t until I moved forward that I thought there was a Harley-Davidson behind me. There was a horrific roar, and I realized it was my car,” he said.

Located near the converter on many cars is the muffler, required as standard since the 1990s. The muffler can be damaged or ripped out with the catalytic converter.

Mr. Crosbie had to pay £800 ($1,035) to repair his car. The theft was one of several that swept through his area. His neighbor, Duncan Chapman, found his Prius had also been targeted.

“They got it out completely,” he said about the converter. “They took out the silencer too, and it was a throaty roar for a Prius.”

There are about two grams of harvestable palladium in a Toyota Prius converter, which can fetch up to around $450 at scrapyards, according to an autos scrap specialist at European Metal Recycling, a U.K. company.

It is relatively straightforward to steal a catalytic converter. Several videos on YouTube demonstrate the ease with which burglars can jack up a vehicle, pry away the converter and be gone in a matter of minutes.

During the commodity-price boom in 2008, theft of metal objects, including beer kegs, manhole covers and even art works, became the target of thieves.

Catalytic converters stolen at two Austintown businesses

Here is the article. 

Although stolen catalytic converters may net thieves $25 to $500, replacing the device can cost a passenger vehicle owner up to $3,000.

Police are investigating reports of catalytic converters stolen at two Austintown businesses over the past week.

The latest report came Monday morning when the owner of Second Nature Landscaping discovered that someone had cut the converters from three of the vehicles at his business over the weekend.

Last Thursday, a Columbus man told officers that someone stole the converter from his Honda Element SUV that had been parked outside the Hampton Inn on Canfield Niles Road.

According to a report published by the Congressional Research Service last year, thefts of catalytic converters, a key part of the emission control systems of internal combustion vehicles, are on the rise.

 

The National Insurance Crime Bureau reports that the number of stolen catalytic converters increased nearly every month in 2020.

NICB reports that 2,347 catalytic converters were stolen in December 2020 alone, up from 652 such thefts in January 2020. A total of 14,433 catalytic converters were stolen in 2020, according to NICB data, compared to 3,389 such thefts in 2019.

NICB theft data are based on a review of submitted insurance claims, so they likely undercount the actual number of catalytic converter thefts, according to the CRB report.

A catalytic converter is a device used to reduce emissions from a vehicle’s exhaust system. It contains a catalyst for chemically converting pollutants in exhaust gases into less harmful compounds.

They contain precious metals such as rhodium, platinum, and palladium, the price of which have risen sharply due to supply chains disrupted during the pandemic.

Prices for these three metals doubled between March 2020 and June 2021.

Thieves sell stolen catalytic converters to scrap yards that in turn sell them to recyclers who strip them of their precious metals.

Understanding the wave of catalytic converter thefts

Here is the link.

Here's why thieves are stealing them, what they do with them and how you can protect your catalytic converter so a thief will move on to the next car.

1. 40 billions a year -> replace those
2. Need collision and damage coverage
3. Contact your insurance broker

Seconds to steal a catalytic converter

Here is the link.

A catalytic converter

 A catalytic converter is an exhaust emission control device that converts toxic gases and pollutants in exhaust gas from an internal combustion engine into less-toxic pollutants by catalyzing a redox reaction. Catalytic converters are usually used with internal combustion engines fueled by gasoline or diesel, including lean-burn engines, and sometimes on kerosene heaters and stoves.

The first widespread introduction of catalytic converters was in the United States automobile market. To comply with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's stricter regulation of exhaust emissions, most gasoline-powered vehicles starting with the 1975 model year are equipped with catalytic converters.^[1][2][3] These "two-way" converters combine oxygen with carbon monoxide (CO) and unburned hydrocarbons (HC) to produce carbon dioxide (CO₂) and water (H₂O). Although two-way converters on gasoline engines were rendered obsolete in 1981 by "three-way" converters that also reduce oxides of nitrogen (NOx);^[4] they are still used on lean-burn engines to oxidize particulate matter and hydrocarbon emissions (including Diesel engines, which typically use lean combustion), as three-way-converters require fuel-rich or stoichiometric combustion to successfully reduce NOx.

Although catalytic converters are most commonly applied to exhaust systems in automobiles, they are also used on electrical generators, forklifts, mining equipment, trucks, buses, locomotives, motorcycles, and on ships. They are even used on some wood stoves to control emissions.^[5] This is usually in response to government regulation, either through environmental regulation or through health and safety regulations.

The 10 Year Treasury Rate

 

The 10 Year Treasury Rate is the yield received for investing in a US government issued treasury security that has a maturity of 10 year. The 10 year treasury yield is included on the longer end of the yield curve. Many analysts will use the 10 year yield as the "risk free" rate when valuing the markets or an individual security. Historically, the 10 Year treasury rate reached 15.84% in 1981 as the Fed raised benchmark rates in an effort to contain inflation.

美股开年“涨疯了”，空头“亏懵了”

 近期美股上涨或令金融环境再度放松，阻碍遏制通胀的行动，美联储会坐视不理吗？

去年才实现四年来首次盈利的美股空头，却在2023新年伊始就被现实上了生动的一课。

高盛追踪罗素3000中空头最爱50只股票的指数显示，今年截至上周四的收益率为15%，远超标普500指数6%的涨幅。其中在去年创历史最差表现的特斯拉，已在1月斩获44%的涨幅，另外加密货币交易所Coinbase的股价涨幅也高达73%。

媒体1月29日报道称，数据机构S3 Partners主管预测分析的董事总经理Ihor Dusaniwsky表示，目前损失惨重的空头正在积极减仓。在去年获利约3000亿美元之后，截至上周四，今年空头累计亏损约810亿美元。

关于美股在开年呈现反弹态势，相关分析人士和投资者认为，有若干因素在共同助力。但同时也有观点认为，近期美股上涨或令金融环境再度放松，阻碍遏制通胀的行动，美联储可能不会坐视不理。

通胀放缓投资者押注美股上涨

近期通胀放缓迹象令投资者加大对美股上涨的押注，他们预计美联储最早将于今年下半年启动降息。

而这推动了风险资产的全面上涨，其中风险相对较大的市场板块颇受青睐，比如空头头寸高的美股股票就经历了更大程度反弹。分析人士认为，这可能迫使空头平仓以减少损失，从而导致“挤空”。

瑞银全球财富管理美洲股票主管David Lefkowitz表示：

我们看到的是（去年）美股的镜像......去年垫底的公司在今年斩获最佳表现......这看起来确实像是空头回补和投资者选择重新冒险。

估值较低科技股成上佳切入点

并且对于希望将资金从防御资产中转移出来的投资者而言，去年遭受重创、估值较低的科技股是很好的切入点。

FactSet的数据显示，纳斯达克综合指数即使经历年初反弹，估值相对于大流行期间仍处于较低水平，过去12个月的市盈率约为22倍，较2021年2月峰值的近37倍明显下行。

财富管理机构Wealth Enhancement Group高级副总裁兼财务顾问Nicole Webb表示，如果美联储开始放松货币政策，科技股将尤为受益。

债券收益率回落形成利好

此外，债券收益率回落也对科技股形成利好。目前10年期美债收益率已从去年10月4.2%的峰值回落至3.5%。

通常情况下，科技股受益于未来可获得的巨额利润，并且在利率较低、投资者投资选择较少时表现最佳。

值得注意的是，美国火热的劳动力市场和中国经济的超预期复苏也成为不容忽视的利好因素。

美联储会作何反应？

然而针对近期上涨行情，有投资者警告称，风险资产的长期上涨或令金融环境再度放松，阻碍美联储遏制通胀的行动。并且有人提及，如果美联储继续实施超预期的激进货币政策，部分因“挤空”而推动的涨势可能很容易被快速逆转。

Lefkowitz表示：

人们现在更愿意为软着陆定价......我纠结的是，美联储对此作何反应？如果经济增长较数周前市场预期更为强劲，我们真的能将通胀降至美联储目标水平吗？

美联储将于北京时间本周四公布FOMC利率决议，目前市场预计加息幅度为25基点，较去年有所放缓。

芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME Group）的数据显示，利率市场交易员认为，美联储上半年至少加息两次的可能性为92%，在12月前至少降低一次的可能性为82%。

NEW UP HEADQUARTERS OPENS IN OMAHA | June 2004

 With a move just across the street from its old home, Union Pacific ushered in a new era when it opened Union Pacific Center, its Omaha headquarters. More than 4,000 employees, who previously were spread out in seven locations and in St. Louis, now were working in a central location. The modern, 1.3-million-square-foot, 19-story glass-and-steel structure includes a dining facility, fitness center, health clinic and a host of other amenities. Union Pacific Center is the largest single-corporation office building in Nebraska.

Lance Fritz

 Lance Fritz as the chairman, president, and CEO of Union Pacific. He earned the position in 2015, as well as a seat the corporation's board of directors. [1] In addition, Fritz serves on the boards of the Association of American Railroads and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He is also a member of the STRATCOM Consultation Committee. [1]

Union Pacific CEO breaks down fourth-quarter earnings and railroad outlook

Here is the link. 

Lance Fritz, Union Pacific CEO on company joins 'Squawk on the Street' to break down the company's Q4 earnings results.

The Union Pacific Railroad

 The Union Pacific Railroad (reporting marks UP, UPP, UPY), legally Union Pacific Railroad Company and often called simply Union Pacific, is a freight-hauling railroad that operates 8,300 locomotives over 32,200 miles (51,800 km) routes in 23 U.S. states west of Chicago and New Orleans. Union Pacific is the second largest railroad in the United States after BNSF, with which it shares^[2] a duopoly on transcontinental freight rail lines in the Western, Midwestern and Southern United States.

Founded in 1862, the original Union Pacific Rail Road was part of the first transcontinental railroad project, later known as the Overland Route. Over the next century, UP absorbed the Missouri Pacific Railroad, the Chicago and North Western Transportation Company, the Western Pacific Railroad, the Missouri–Kansas–Texas Railroad and the Chicago, Rock Island and Pacific Railroad. In 1996, the Union Pacific merged with Southern Pacific Transportation Company, itself a giant system that was absorbed by the Denver and Rio Grande Western Railroad. The Union Pacific Railroad is the principal operating company of the Union Pacific Corporation, which are both headquartered at the Union Pacific Center, in Omaha, Nebraska.

Delta and American Express CEOs on Their Co-branding Relationship

Here is the link. 

Delta Airlines CEO Ed Bastian and American Express Co. CEO Steve Squeri talk about their 64-year old co-branding relationship and how they plan to keep it growing. They talk to Bloomberg's David Westin.

美联储本轮最后一次加息？市场预测概率为8%

来源: 财联社 于 2023-01-25 19:54:25

 距离美联储 2 月 1 日的利率决定还有一周时间，期权市场的交易员们正在考虑一种情况，即美联储预期中的这次加息将是本轮紧缩周期的最后一次。

在下周的政策会议之前，与隔夜担保融资利率（Secured Overnight Financing Rate，SOFT）相关的期权活动，主要是针对鸽派结果的对冲，以及如果投资者降低对美联储未来几个月进一步收紧的预期，将会受益的直接押注。市场已经消化了今年下半年降息约 50 个基点的预期。

过去一周，掉期市场一直稳定地反映出未来两次政策会议加息 48 个基点左右的预期。这意味着，如果美联储下周将基准利率上调 25 个基点，这有可能是美联储在本轮紧缩周期中的最后一步，尽管这种可能性很小，只有大约 8% 的几率。

SOFR 期权近期鸽派表现的一个例子是一个 4000 万美元头寸的建立，该头寸将受益于 2023 年 9 月期货定价的约 25 个基点的加息溢价。其他鸽派方案还包括对冲联邦基金利率达到远低于多位美联储官员所说的 5% 水平的可能性。目前的利率是 4.3%。

在美国国债市场，较短期国债收益率开始回落，2 年期国债收益率有望录得 2020 年 3 月以来最大单月跌幅。

债券交易员们大举押注，美联储的终端利率不会超过 5%

可以肯定的是，对华尔街许多人来说，未来两次会议分别加息 25 个基点仍是基本预测，尽管两次会议之间相隔 7 周，给前景增加了一定程度的不确定性。

BMO 资本市场（BMO Capital Markets）驻纽约的美国利率策略主管伊恩 · 林根（Ian Lyngen）周一在一份报告中写道：" 考虑到 2 月和 3 月 FOMC 会议之间的窗口期，美联储在第一季度末开会时，将对美国经济表现有更深入的了解。"

" 我们预计，下一次会议间隙获得的信息不足以阻止 3 月份加息 25 个基点，但这可能会排除 5 月份加息的可能性。"

How to Create a Database, Add Tables and Import Data in MySQL Workbench

Here is the link. 

Get up and running quickly with MySQL Workbench how to import csv files. How to create tables directly from Excel files. Video tutorial demonstrating database creation, table definition and importing data in MySQL

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MySQL Workbench Tutorial | Introduction To MySQL Workbench | SQL Basics For Beginners | Simplilearn

Here is the link. 

"This MySQL Workbench Tutorial video will give you an introduction to MySQL workbench and how to install MySQL windows. You learn the different functionalities of MySQL workbench and the editions available for use. You will understand how to set up a connection, and look at the different panes available on the MySQL workbench. You will get hands-on experience working with basic SQL commands. Below are the topics that you will learn: 00:00 What is MySQL Workbench? 01:05 MySQL Workbench functionalities 02:57 MySQL Workbench editions 04:02 MySQL Installation 07:10 MySQL Demo"

A Complete Guide to Installing MySQL and PHP with IIS

Here is the article. 

One of my latest projects was setting up WordPress, the popular content management system, on a client’s web server which was running Windows Server 2008. WordPress requires installations of MySQL for the database back-end and the PHP scripting language in order to serve up the WordPress content. On a local Windows machine, I’d probably just use a pre-configured WAMP (Windows, Apache, MySQL, PHP) stack package like XAMPP which is installed quickly and includes all the necessary components. That’s not quite an option in a professional environment, though. I was also working with Internet Information Services (IIS) 7.5 for the web server instead of Apache so the process is a little more involved.

Click here to read more about using XAMPP to create a local installation of WordPress.

In addition to installing the components, PHP must be be configured to work with MySQL so that WordPress, which maintains all the site content in MySQL, can access the database as needed. Having only previously done this in Linux with Apache as the web server, I had to do a little research. It was not painless – WordPress is a little finicky on IIS / Windows and I had to research my way past a couple stubborn errors.

For everyone’s benefit, I thought I’d share what I learned here. I’ve tested this process on both Windows Server 2008 and 2012 and noted the differences where necessary.

 

AXP | Credit card giants see consumer spending 'remarkably resilient' amid recession fears

 Quarterly results from credit card giants Mastercard (MA), Visa (V), and American Express (AXP) out this week added further evidence consumers remain in good shape amid elevated inflation and swirling recession fears.

"We aren't seeing recessionary signals," American Express CEO Stephen Squeri told Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi on Friday.

These comments echo similar notions set forth by Squeri's peers at Mastercard and Visa just a day before.

"While macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty persists, consumer spending has been remarkably resilient," said Michael Miebach, Mastercard CEO, in the company's earnings statement on Thursday. "We are well prepared to adjust our investment profile quickly if needed."

Visa CFO Vasan Prabhu told analysts on the company's call Thursday afternoon, "business trends have been remarkably stable." At the end of the firm's fiscal year — which wrapped up in September 2022 — Visa planned for no recession hitting its business in fiscal 2023. Right now, the company sees "no evidence" of a change in that trend.

Shares of American Express were up about 10% on Friday following its quarterly results, while Visa stock gained about 2%. Mastercard, which reported results before the open on Thursday, saw shares little-changed.

Results from these companies come as fears over an impending recession in the U.S. abroad continue to dominate the conversation for investors.

The latest reading on GDP growth out Thursday showed the U.S. economy finished 2022 in a stronger-than-expected position.

Retail sales data for December out earlier this month, however, suggested some moderation to cap last year.

In a note to clients, Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev said both Mastercard and Visa provided volume data that showed slowing consumer purchases between November and December. However, unlike Mastercard, Visa added purchasing volume from January.

“Healthy U.S. January trends should offer a sigh of relief amid broader slowdown concern,” Dolev wrote.

Still, the divide between corporate readouts on real-time activity and economists modeling higher interest rates and a loss of growth momentum are clear across markets.

In a note to clients on Friday, Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote: "Calling a recession in real time is never a simple task. The data rarely all point in one direction at the same time. We start with the simple question: are there reasons to expect a recession? In this case, the answer is a resounding yes."

In Ashworth's view, last year's rise in interest rates and the firm's tracking of forward-looking economic behavior suggests the odds of recession starting within 6 months are 98%.

"If the model is wrong, that would turn out to be one hell of a false positive," Ashworth wrote. "That's why we are sticking with our forecast that the US economy will experience a mild recession beginning soon."