Saturday, November 4, 2023

如何利用期权构建对冲策略?

  如果你有一百万股票,该怎么用期权对冲风险?

如何利用期权构建对冲策略?期权对冲比股指期货对冲有什么样的优势?笔者通过以下例子来简单说明

2月初投资者持有100万与上证50走势高度相关的大盘蓝筹股,想通过买入认沽期权为股票“投保”(初始数据以2月1日开盘价,截至收据以2月9日收盘价)

 

第一步:确认投资者对冲市值。一般投资者持仓股票走势与50ETF有差别,差别越少,相关性越高。如果追求严谨精确,我们可以导出过去一段时间持仓股票与50ETF 收盘价,利用EXCEL表直接算出。假如持仓股票和50ETF 相关性是80%(就是股票跌1%,50ETF跌0.8%),那么投资者持有100万的股票,所需50ETF对冲市值为100÷80%=125万。我们这里简单起见,假设股票都是50ETF前十大成分股,相关性为100%,那么对冲市值=投资者持仓市值=100万

 

第二步:先确认所需开仓的合约数量。正常未除息调整的50ETF合约单位为10000股/张,期初50ETF价格为3.115,则1张期权合约对应标的市值为:3.115×10000=31150元。我们上一步得到了对冲市值为100万,则所需开认沽权利仓数量为100万÷3.115万=32张。

 

第三步:挑选行权价,确认股票资产的回撤容忍度。相当于设定一个阈值,当投资者的股票损失到某个百分比,对冲效果开始启动,也可以理解为账户回撤到某个净值,我才动手采取措施对冲。假如我回撤容忍度为0,现价开始需要完全对冲,则按实际选择平值合约(3.100认沽合约)假如对回撤容忍度为5%,也就是说股票市值回撤5%才开始对冲,3.115×0.95=2.959,就近选择2.950行权价合约


第四步
:确认月份。选择月份需完整包含对冲周期。笔者的心得是,若只需针对某些时段对冲,比如重要数据公告日、政治事件的窗口,或只规避长假的风险事件,可以选择离结束还有15天以上的当月合约;如果需要长期、定量对冲,比如持有大量融资盘、股票质押,可以选择下月合约,待下月合约变成新的当月合约,平仓,移到新的下月合约开仓。笔者不建议选择下季或隔季的合约,因为敏感度较低对冲效果较弱。我们按上述四步,建立了对冲策略,并回测了在2月初到2月9日收盘时的对冲表现,并且和股指期货的对冲策略做对比,结果如下:

从这表可清晰看到,对比股指期货,期权的对冲优势有:

资金占用少;

对冲效率高;

最重要是,期权的对冲不影响我获得市场继续上涨的潜在收益,下有保底上不封顶,风险收益能做到不对等,而股指期货一旦开启完全对冲,上下行空间均被限制死



 
期权对冲的适用投资者群体和情景

不愿投入过多资金头寸对冲,想灵活实现对冲效果

对回撤控制要求严格的主体,如私募、融资客户

面对潜在风险不愿或不能减仓的投资者,如网下打新、股票质押等

经过一轮上涨行情,利用买入认沽提前锁定止盈线

04 期权对冲的心得体会

目前场内只有50ETF期权,与自己持仓股票相关性不高(比如都是小盘股)的慎用;

行情平稳、上涨期“投保”成本要比下跌行情要便宜,行情下跌初段也可以开仓投保,但下跌中后段效果不佳,期权对冲用于事前预防,而非事后补救;

虚值合约应对急跌大跌效果很好,靠近平值的虚值合约、离到期20-60天的认沽合约性价比较高。

假如要获得长期有效对冲保护,通过滚动形式,逐月开仓移仓“投保”的效果,比一次性直接投远月合约的要好;

对冲所裸露的敞口大小要与个人风险需求、持仓股票相关度匹配好;

如非条件特殊,最好选择未经除权除息调整过合约

期权对冲只是应对意料不到的下跌风险,如果大市或股票的走牛的逻辑被消除,甚至是开始进入熊市状态,这时优先考虑直接减仓清仓股票为佳

最后想重申一点的是,期权是“消耗品”,持股买入认沽本质上是保险行为,行情上涨它不会让您赚更多的钱,行情震荡也许会让你陷入小幅亏损。它的重要意义是,一旦遇上“险情”,它的高效“理赔”能让您的财富免遭灭顶之灾,在股灾救回的每1元,在灾后抄底可是有10元的效果咯!它使得您的财富更安全的朝上一个阶级迈进。现在人人都要投保,更何况是您的金融股票资产!所以,善用期权!

Here is the article. 




Friday, November 3, 2023

Competing ideas | 2023

Nov. 3, 2023 

Competing ideas to invest:


  1. Verizon stock went up 10% after earning in Oct. 2023
  2. BUD stock, Bill Gates purchased, afterwards, 10% drop, but 7% after buyback announcement after third quarter earnings
  3. SABR - earning date - a week or two before earnings, $3.3/ share -> $4.3/ share
  4. SABR - peak in 2023 - August, went up from $3/ share, mother day -> $5.7/ share, 90%, should sell at the peak
  5. RTX - stock buyback in Oct, 2023
  6. HE stock - 

Rogers | Data usage | Wechat data usage

 





How can I reduce my WeChat data usage?

 How can I reduce my WeChat data usage?

You can use the Manage Storage feature on WeChat to clear the cache. To do this, you should open WeChat, go to Settings > General > Storage > Clear WeChat. After you follow these steps, WeChat will automatically clear then cache.Jul 25, 2022

Rogers | Android | Track Andrioid data usage by app

  1. Select settings
  2. Select Data usage
  3. You can see the cellular data usage broken out by app under the Data usage section. 

The cloud girl | The battle of relational and non-relational databases | SQL vs NoSQL Explained

 


Transparent Glass Whiteboard in Microsoft Teams or Zoom with OBS for FREE!

Linkedin | Henry Kirk |

Henry Kirk• FollowingSoftware Engineer, Studio.init() | Ex-SWE @ Google, Amazon, Startups.
Book an appointment

 

With the economy in the toilet and news of #layoffs still a headline - I want to remind everyone that there is light at the end of the tunnel. Here’s my story…


I’m a self-taught engineer. Some college, no degree. Barely graduated HS (had to convince my band teacher not to fail me).

I’ve been drawn to programming since I was eleven (1991) when my dad got a computer at his office. Took it seriously as a career after an e-commerce startup I founded melted down in 2007.

In 2007, I had lost it all - over months, not years. My house, cars, savings. Was in massive debt. Creditors called daily. I even had the heat shut off. I wasn’t single, I had a wife and two children to care for. Life wasn’t just challenging, it was a fight for survival.

Reset #1: I was absolutely mesmerized by the iPhone and its capabilities, so I went all in. Started with mobile web, then dived into iPhoneOS. Poured over developer books and did cheap or free consulting work to gain experience (also had a few side jobs). About five years and fifty or so apps later, I had a successful iOS app dev agency.

Then got recruited by Amazon. Two years later, Google (sadly couldn’t land a gig at Apple). Over that decade, I worked on dozens of apps and related projects targeted towards user and revenue growth. I learned a ton. Paid off debt, accrued savings, got a house, new cars.

Reset #2: Laid off, January 2023. Income: $0. Bigger family. Bigger expenses. I’m building apps and software while incubating business ideas at my agency with four amazing partners.

It feels like 2007 all over again, but I’ve overcome the worst before, so I can do it again.

All it takes is effort and a desire. Outwork your peers, and you’ll find yourself suddenly having lots of luck.

Stay strong 💪.

Thursday, November 2, 2023

SABR | Morningstar | Updated on Nov. 2, 2023

 Like last quarter, Sabre shares rose around 20% from oversold conditions, as it once again surpassed sales and EBITDA guidance and as free cash flow inflected positive, which we have noted could serve as a catalyst. Despite management execution, shares are still down about 35% this year even after today's pop, which we think is driven by investor's distaste for debt leverage companies amid a still uncertain economic environment and higher costs of capital. We think this concern is misguided, especially given Sabre's improved liquidity profile. We don't plan to materially change our $9 fair value estimate and see shares of this narrow-moat company as meaningfully undervalued, although action is likely to remain volatile.

Revenue and EBITDA of $740 million and $110 million, respectively, compared with guidance of $725 million and $100 million. Nearly 100% of incremental sales growth flowed to EBITDA, which was up nicely from $73 million last quarter and $34 million a year ago, as labor and technology efficiencies take hold. Free cash flow was $39 million versus $20 million guidance and represented the highest print in four years.

Sabre maintained 2023 sales guidance at $2.9 billion-$3 billion, which is above initial guidance in February of $2.8 billion-$3.0 billion. The firm once again increased 2023 EBITDA targets to $345 million from $340 million prior, well above initial guidance in February of $300 million-$320 million. We plan to keep our $2.9 billion and $346 million respective forecasts for the full year largely unchanged.

While Sabre's debt/EBITDA should finish around 14 times this year, it has improved its liquidity profile. At year-end 2022, it had $1.8 billion due in February 2024 at Libor+2% and another $2 billion maturing in 2025 at a fixed rate of 7.5%. Now it has just $435 million debt due in 2025, $130 million in 2026, and $2.4 billion in 2027 at a blended rate of 8.6%.

Seekingalpha.com | Education | Call Option: What It Is And How It Works

Here is the article. 

Wednesday, November 1, 2023

性格太内向 | 你没有发现? | 2015 博客数目

 刚开始写博客, 非常紧张。其实, 写给自己看,想想写些什么,如何组织一下,有一些条理,就可以动手写。

2015年,我只写了160篇。胆子太小了。


Youtube.com | Stanford Graduate School of Business

EDX | Behavioural Economics in Action

 How can we get people to save more money, eat healthy foods, engage in healthy behaviors, and make better choices in general? There has been a lot written about the fact that human beings do not process information and make decisions in an optimal fashion. This course builds on much of the fascinating work in the area of behavioral economics and allows learners to develop a hands-on approach by understanding its methods and more importantly, how it can be harnessed by suitably designing contexts to “nudge” choice.

In three modules, learners will be able to a) explain and interpret the principles underlying decision-making and compare the nudging approach to other methods of behavior change, b) learn how to critique, design and interpret the results of experiments; and c) design nudges and decision-tools to help people make better decisions.

Understanding experimental design and interpretation is central to your ability to use behavioral economics effectively, and will set you apart from people who merely know about the behavioral results. After the first two weeks learning the basic principles, we will devote two weeks to studying experimental design and analysis, and the final two weeks to understanding processes for designing nudges and for helping people make better decisions.

You will also witness and participate in weekly topical debates on various topics like “does irrationality impact welfare?” or “what strategy is better for improving welfare – nudging or education?” Several leading scholars, policy makers, business people, authors and commentators will briefly join our debate and discussion sections. These guest lecturers include Professor Sendhil Mullainathan (University of Chicago), Professor John Lynch (University of Colorado), Rory Sutherland (Ogilvy Group), Owain Service (formerly Behavioural Insights Team, UK Cabinet Office), Shankar Vedantam (NPR Columnist and Author – The Hidden Brain), Professors Andrew Ching, Avi Goldfarb (University of Toronto), Nina Mazar (BostonU), Itamar Simonson (Stanford) and many others!

This course was originally developed in 2013, and the field has changed over the past 7 years. That said, a) the course provides foundational content that is still very relevant, and b) the material has been updated over the years to capture newer developments. The course will conclude with a summary of the newest developments in the field, and will provide links to resources that learners could access for continued learning. BE101x will be in self-paced format; learners are invited to work through the materials and assessments at their own convenience. The content is based on work done at the University of Toronto’s BEAR centre.

At a glance

  • Language: English
  • Video Transcript: English
  • Associated skills: Economics, Debating, Decision Making, Experimental Design

MIT OPEN courseware | Finance

Here is the link. 


Arshad Ahmad - PhD, MBA

 Associate Vice-President, Teaching & Learning, MIIETL

Prior to joining McMaster, Arshad spent several years teaching in the EMBA program at Concordia University’s John Molson School of Business and has taught executive programs and workshops around the world. He has also consulted in the private sector in Canada and overseas including firms in Advertising, Appliances, Banking, Beverage, Engineering, Pharmaceuticals and Technology.

In addition to his financial expertise, Arshad has a Phd in educational psychology and has focussed on online and blended learning, curriculum design and teaching strategies. Arshad has served as President of Canada’s Society for Teaching and Learning in Higher Education and Vice-President of The International Consortium for Educational Development consisting of 24 member organizations worldwide. Both organizations aim to enhance the quality of the student learning experience. In 1992, Arshad was recognized with a lifetime 3M National Teaching Fellowship and has won several teaching excellence awards locally and overseas.

Duke University Behavioral Finance | Duke university | Coursera

Dr. Emma Rasiel | Associate Chair and Professor

 

Bio

Dr. Rasiel completed her PhD in finance at The Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, in 2003. She also received an MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in 1990, and bachelor's and master's degrees in mathematics from Oxford University. Before beginning her PhD program at Fuqua, Dr Rasiel was an Executive Director in the London office of Goldman Sachs, a leading investment bank, where she traded bond options.

Yale University Financial Markets | Coursera

 Instructor 

Bio

Robert J. Shiller is Sterling Professor of Economics, Department of Economics and Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, and Professor of Finance and Fellow at the International Center for Finance, Yale School of Management. He received his B.A. from the University of Michigan in 1967 and his Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1972. He has written on financial markets, financial innovation, behavioral economics, macroeconomics, real estate, statistical methods, and on public attitudes, opinions, and moral judgments regarding markets.

Bob was awarded the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his "empirical analysis of asset prices.” His 1989 book Market Volatility (MIT Press) is a mathematical and behavioral analysis of price fluctuations in speculative markets. His 1993 book Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society's Largest Economic Risks (Oxford University Press) (available via subscribing libraries on Oxford Online) proposes a variety of new risk-management contracts, such as futures contracts in national incomes or securities based on real estate that would permit the management of risks to standards of living. His book Irrational Exuberance (Princeton 2000, Broadway Books 2001, 2nd edition Princeton 2005) is an analysis and explication of speculative bubbles, with special reference to the stock market and real estate. His book The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century (Princeton University Press, 2003) is an analysis of an expanding role of finance, insurance, and public finance in our future. His book Subprime Solution: How the Global Financial Crisis Happened and What to Do about It, published in September 2008 by Princeton University Press, offers an analysis of the housing and economic crisis and a plan of action against it. He co-authored, with George A. Akerlof, Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism published in March 2009 by Princeton University Press. His latest book, Finance and the Good Society, was published in April 2012 by Princeton University Press.His repeat-sales home price indices, developed originally with Karl E. Case, are now published as the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange now maintains futures markets based on the S&P/Case-Shiller Indices.He has been research associate, National Bureau of Economic Research since 1980, and has been co-organizer of NBER workshops: on behavioral finance with Richard Thaler since 1991, and on macroeconomics and individual decision making (behavioral macroeconomics) with George Akerlof since 1994.He served as Vice President of the American Economic Association, 2005 and President of the Eastern Economic Association, 2006-07.He writes a regular column "Finance in the 21st Century" for Project Syndicate, which publishes around the world, and "Economic View" for The New York Times.

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