Palo Alto Networks, Inc.

 Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is an American multinational cybersecurity company with headquarters in Santa Clara, California. The core product is a platform that includes advanced firewalls and cloud-based offerings that extend those firewalls to cover other aspects of security. The company serves over 70,000 organizations in over 150 countries, including 85 of the Fortune 100.^[6] It is home to the Unit 42 threat research team^[7] and hosts the Ignite cybersecurity conference.^[8] It is a partner organization of the World Economic Forum.^[9]

In 2018, Palo Alto Networks was listed 8th in the Forbes Digital 100.^[10] In June 2018, former Google and SoftBank executive Nikesh Arora joined the company as Chairman and CEO.^[11]

History[edit]

Palo Alto Networks was founded in 2005 by Nir Zuk, a former engineer from Check Point and NetScreen Technologies.^[12]

Starting in 2011, Gartner began listing Palo Alto Networks as a leader in the Magic Quadrant for Network Firewalls.^{[13][better source needed]}

The company debuted on the NYSE on July 20, 2012, raising $260 million with its initial public offering, which was the 4th-largest tech IPO of 2012.^[14][15][16] It remained on the NYSE until October 2021 when the company transferred its listing to Nasdaq.^{[17][better source needed]}

In 2014, Palo Alto Networks founded the Cyber Threat Alliance with Fortinet, McAfee, and NortonLifeLock, a not-for-profit organization with the goal of improving cybersecurity "for the greater good" by encouraging cybersecurity organizations to collaborate by sharing cyber threat intelligence amongst members.^[18][19] By 2018, the organization had 20 members including Cisco, Check Point, Juniper Networks, and Sophos.^[20]

The company expanded over the years, offering new enterprise cybersecurity services beyond its original next-generation firewall offering, such as Traps endpoint protection, Wildfire malware prevention,^[21] machine learning, and data analytics.^[22]

In 2018, the company began opening cybersecurity training facilities around the world as part of the Global Cyber Range Initiative.^[23]

In May 2018, the company announced Application Framework, an open cloud-delivered ecosystem where developers can publish security services as SaaS applications that can be instantly delivered to customers.^[2]

In June 2018, former Google Chief Business Officer and SoftBank President Nikesh Arora joined the company as chairman and CEO.^[11] His predecessor, Mark McLaughlin, became vice chairman of the board of directors. Arora received a pay package worth about $128 million, making him one of the highest-paid executives in the United States.^[24] In September 2018 Liane Hornsey, formerly Chief People Officer at Uber, joined Palo Alto Networks as Chief People Officer.^[25] In October 2018, Amit Singh, formerly President of Google Cloud, succeeded Mark Anderson as President of Palo Alto Networks.^[26] In August 2021, William (BJ) Jenkins succeeded Singh as president, with Singh assuming the role of Chief Business Officer.^{[27][better source needed]}

In 2019, the company announced the K2-Series, a 5G-ready next-generation firewall developed for service providers with 5G and IoT requirements.^{[28][better source needed]} In February 2019, the company announced Cortex, an AI-based continuous security platform.^[29] In 2022, the company was also listed in the Gartner Magic Quadrant for Network Firewalls, also marking the 11th consecutive year of the company being listed.^[30]

Nikesh Arora

 Nikesh Arora (born February 9, 1968) is an Indian-American business executive.^[2] Arora was formerly a senior executive at Google.^[3] He was the president of SoftBank Group from October 2014 to June 2016. On June 1, 2018, Arora took on the role of CEO and chairman at Palo Alto Networks.^[2]

Early life[edit]

Born to an Indian Air Force officer,^[4] Arora completed his schooling at The Air Force School (Subroto Park),^[5] and went on to graduate from the Indian Institute of Technology, BHU in Varanasi, India, with a bachelor of technology degree in electrical engineering in 1989.^[6] He holds a degree from Boston College and an MBA from Northeastern University. He has held the CFA designation since 1999.^[6]

IBD digital | The L in CAN SLIM: Why Industry-Leading Growth Stocks Are Key To Profitable Investing

IBD’s Popular Stock Lists Do It Again, with Multiple Lists Beating the S&P 500 over Three, Six, and 12-month Periods

Here is the article. 

How To Use IBD Big Cap 20 To Find Stocks With Potential

 Investor's Business Daily

May 8, 2014

Investor's Business Daily

May 8, 2014

As IBD stock screens go, the IBD Big Cap 20 is of a different stripe.

A primary focus on large-capitalization stocks distinguishes it from the high-growth slant of the IBD 50 or Your Weekly Review. But that doesn't mean that the IBD Big Cap 20, which runs in Tuesday's paper, won't find its fair share of winning stocks before they start big price advances.

The Big Cap 20 is also featured in the eTables online product.

Some big companies can still produce robust gains in earnings and share prices. A look back at some of the stocks that made the Big Cap 20 aptly illustrate that point (more on that later).

To find the winners in this weekly feature, investors should follow a systematic approach.

Start by studying the mini weekly charts that are published for each of the 20 stocks. Separate the ones that are forming bases or in secondary buy areas.

Not sure how to spot them? You've got help. The bottom of each chart shows a brief analysis, written by IBD market writers, that tells readers if the stock is near a buy point or too far extended in price to be of immediate interest. In many cases, this analysis gives the correct buy point. Do not buy until the stock hits this buy point.

For more analysis, read the Big Cap 20 column. Here, you can learn more about the stocks setting up in attractive chart zones, as well as which industry sectors are showing leadership among big caps.

In June of last year, the stock market was struggling, yet top-rated stocks Google (GOOGL) and Biogen Idec (BIIB) formed bases during that time. Both also made the June 11 Big Cap 20 list.

Google was finding support at its 10-week moving average. The chart analysis noted the action. Google continued a long consolidation and broke out on Oct. 18 in a powerful gap-up sparked by a solid earnings report.

Shares surged 36% until peaking in February. Google's 21% EPS gain was smaller than what investors had seen from the Internet giant in its halcyon days. Yet it was in line with other Big Cap 20 firms; double-digit growth for large, mature companies denotes market leadership and strength.

Biogen had found support and eventually formed a cup-with-handle base. The stock broke out Sept. 11; after a few pullbacks, it gained 53% by March this year.

In the June 4, 2013, edition of the Big Cap 20, fellow biotech Celgene (CELG) was forming a base. After a July 11 breakout, it shot up 32% to its Jan. 13 peak of 174.66.

IBD® Big Cap 20

 

IBD® Big Cap 20

The IBD Big Cap 20 is a computer-generated ranking of the leading large-capitalization companies trading in the U.S. The list is featured in the IBD paper every Tuesday. Rankings are based on a combination of each company's profit growth; IBD's Composite Rating, which includes key measures such as return on equity, sales growth and profit margins; and relative price strength in the past 12 months. Some of the companies also appear on the IBD 100, which features a blend of small- mid- and large-cap names. For investors who prefer less volatile investments with greater liquidity, the Big Cap 20 offers more mature yet still vibrant enterprises. Companies must have a minimum market value of $15 billion and trade more than 300,000 shares a day.

Linkedin search | Google VP AI

 

How AI can actually improve human connection at work | Linkedin.com

 Here is the link. 

Forbes | Google Will Let You Send A Bot To A Meeting On Your Behalf

Kristina Behr, Google | Google Cloud Next 2023

Vice President of Engineering at Google - Core ML/AI | Linkedin | Bill Jia

Linkedin.com | 3rd on Linkedin | Cannot follow, why?

 How do I Connect with someone who is 3rd on LinkedIn?

3rd-degree connections are also not part of your network. These LinkedIn users are people connected to your 2nd-degree connections. You'll see a 3rd-degree or + icon next to their name on their profile's search bar. LinkedIn does not allow you to message your 3rd-degree connections, but you can send them an InMail.

Bank profits to be squashed by over $500-billion in bank mortgage renewals in next two years

 RBC Capital Market’s bank research team, led by Darko Mihelic, published a 39-page report discussing the upcoming mortgage payment shock on domestic earnings in the sector,

“We believe a significant number of mortgages are coming due in the next three years (around 60 per cent of all outstanding mortgages at the Canadian chartered banks) and that payment shock (the increase in payment at renewal) could be significant and represents a tail risk to Canadian banks. Unless there are significant declines in interest rates, we believe that credit losses will inevitably rise, perhaps significantly in 2025 and beyond … We are not changing our estimates with this report but feel confident that our tepid outlook for revenue growth of approximately 4 per cent in 2024 and 3 per cent in 2025 in Canada retail banking is reasonable as we believe banks will be managing through this phenomenon carefully with slow loan growth, low NIMs [net interest margins] , and fee pressure. We will revisit PCL [provisions for credit losses] estimates at year-end … We believe there will be more than $186-billion of mortgages renewing in 2024 at the chartered banks in Canada and at current interest rates (for example, the 5-year fixed mortgage rate of 5.54 per cent is over 180 bps higher than five years ago), a weighted average payment shock of 32 per cent could be expected. .. In 2025, we believe there will be $315-billion of mortgages renewing at chartered banks in Canada

BNN Bloomberg | Mortgage renewals could cause severe downturn: analyst note

Here is the article. 

Upcoming mortgage renewals at high interest rate levels will potentially drive the Canadian economy into a more severe downturn than anticipated, according to analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. 

In a note published Wednesday, analysts Mike Rizvanovic and Abhilash Shashidharan estimated the impact of Canadian mortgage renewals would total $34 billion by 2027, assuming all mortgages are renewed at currently elevated interest rate levels.

“The resulting hit to both consumer spending and economic growth would be meaningful, indicating that a 'higher rates for longer' theme could easily push Canada into a more severe recession than is currently expected,” the analysts wrote.

RATE PATH

The analysts said confidence among banks over the medium term “is largely predicated on the expectation that interest rates will decline.” 

“As such, we believe the trajectory of interest rates will remain a key focus for Canadian bank investors, with most remaining underweight the sector until there is more certainty that rates will in fact decline before too long,” the analysts said. 

Despite a series of interest rates from the Bank of Canada since last year that have brought the bank’s key rate to five per cent, the analysts noted that the “majority of homeowners” haven’t yet felt the impact of higher mortgage costs. 

The Bank of Canada has not indicated when it intends to cut interest rates, but the analysts with the investment banking firm made the case that rate reductions would blunt the economic impact of high-rate mortgage renewals.

The analysts estimated that a 100-basis-point reduction in interest rates would bring the $34-billion impact down to about $23 billion, showing that interest rates would have to fall significantly to “fully eliminate higher mortgage renewals.”

“Other potential mitigating factors include higher wage inflation and deposit rates, both of which are likely to remain elevated if inflation and rates remain higher, as well as forbearance by the banks (i.e. allowing borrowers to renew loans with a longer amortization period),” the analysts said. 

Currently, three major banks in Canada allow for negative amortizations in variable rate mortgage products, the analysts highlighted, including Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and TD Bank.   

The analysts said balances for negative amortizations in variable rate mortgage products are $33 billion for the Bank of Montreal, $50 billion for CIBC and $46 billion for TD Bank.    

Meanwhile, Canada’s banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, said it’s concerned about instances of long-extended mortgages and is working with lenders to rein in this type of borrowing. 

Tipranks.com | Analysits' most recommended stocks | Jan. 1, 2024

 

Tipranks.com | Top smart score stocks

 

IBD digital | INVESTOR'S CORNER | Risk Management In The Stock Market: How Much Money To Invest Now

Here is the link. 

When the light turns green at an intersection, do you put the pedal to the metal? Or do you ease through with caution? What if there's a pedestrian in the way, heavy traffic ahead or poor visibility? There are compelling reasons to treat each intersection differently. Risk management in the stock market is the same.

Just like road conditions will suggest different speeds, stock market conditions will dictate different levels of exposure. That is, how much of your money available to invest in stocks should actually be invested at that time. That's why we are making an improvement to our website homepage and The Big Picture, one of the most popular Investor's Business Daily features. In this subscriber-only daily column, we give a synopsis of the latest stock market action and analyze the current market condition.

More Granular Levels Of Exposure

So what's changing? Our Market Pulse had highlighted a three-tiered current outlook: confirmed uptrend, uptrend under pressure, and market in correction. We often referred to these as our traffic signals for the market, with the tiers representing green, yellow and red lights.

But risk management in the stock market requires a little more granularity. When stocks are in a correction, we look for a follow-through day when a major index closes significantly higher in heavier volume. But some follow-through days are stronger than others. While some deliver many stocks to buy, others offer no emerging leaders. And not every emerging uptrend means you should invest heavily.

So to give more guidance and insight, our three-tiered system is expanding to five different levels centered on market exposure that equate to the percentage of your investing portfolio that's invested in stocks:

• 0%-20%: The most cautious level. Put very little, if any, of your investing capital at risk.
• 20%-40%: Remain cautious, with your portfolio tilted toward cash. But you might try out some of your stock ideas.
• 40%-60%: The stock market is showing more signs of improvement, so you might put more of your portfolio to work in stocks.
• 60%-80%: The market shows more signs that an uptrend is gaining steam.
• 80%-100%: An uptrend is well in place. (But always remain on the lookout for signs of a change in direction.)
• Here's an example (not necessarily the current exposure and market analysis) of what you'll see:
• 
  This new tool has more flexibility to communicate where we are on a sliding scale of exposure. Sticking with extremes of either 0% or 100% invested didn't tell the full story. Even our middle ground of 50% could be misunderstood. Was it caution due to weakness early in a rally that suggested a high failure rate? Or a mild pullback taking place in an otherwise strong rally? The five exposure levels allow IBD's markets team more flexibility. They can adapt to ever-changing market environments.

• A Model Of Risk Management In The Stock Market

  This won't be a new concept for some of our subscribers. More than a decade ago, we launched a workshop titled "Market School." IBD's founder Bill O'Neil guided its development. In it, we introduced a multitiered and automated system for risk management in the stock market. It included buy and sell signals, introduced concepts like the power trend and codified stalling rules. The end result led to a more gradual increase and decrease of exposure levels.

  With years of real-time application bolstered by historical back-testing, the gradual increase and decrease of exposure has proved useful and profitable for investors.

  We are now applying that same concept to the Market Pulse found in The Big Picture, as well as the ETF Market Strategy and our Leaderboard and MarketSmith products. Subscribers also will find the recommended exposure on the Investors.com homepage.

  The new Stock Market Exposure starts with the lowest exposure level of 0%-20% invested. When a market is in a correction, the dangers of a downtrend are high enough that sitting mostly on the sidelines is preferable to aggressive buying. And remember, leading stocks usually correct 1.5 to 2.5 times the general market. That can make a big dent in your portfolio. Sure, there might be the exceptions of stocks that perform counter to the trend. But overall, applying risk management to the stock market can get you outperformance by keeping exposure low when risks are high and avoiding huge drawdowns.

• How It Works In Practice

  We'll continue to use follow-through days that inform our decision on when to raise the recommended stock market exposure. A follow-through day under the new system might dictate an exposure level at the 20%-40% invested level. Or if only a few top-rated stocks appear to be setting up for potential gains, we may keep exposure at 0%-20%.

  Even under the old system, we often mentioned the idea of carefully increasing exposure in The Big Picture. But now it's easier for readers to decipher at a glance. An image will visually show the current level. Explanations will be found in The Big Picture.

  After an increase in the exposure level, the feedback of the stock market will inform further moves. Indexes undercutting the follow-through day, a lack of stocks setting up or failed breakouts might be reasons to curtail further buying or even decrease exposure. This might lead to an adjustment in the exposure in a way that wouldn't have been possible under the old system

• On the flip side, we'll be mindful of signals that would suggest increasing exposure gradually. Should you see more days of accumulation in the indexes, lots of stocks to choose from and buyable stocks trending higher, that would suggest a move. Investors could go to higher tiers of 40%-60% invested, 60%-80% or the highest tier at 80%-100%. The speed at which the Stock Market Exposure moves through those levels will depend on the strength of the stock market and the individual stocks leading it.

• Greater Flexibility For Risk Management In The Stock Market

  Context matters, and the daily price and volume action, support and resistance levels as well as the stage of the larger market cycle are all part of the equation.

  When the stock market gets extended, exposure could be preemptively lowered to protect profits. After particularly damaging action, like a vertical violation, the exposure levels will require more proof before edging higher.

  Indeed, while the new system is partly rules-based, the decades of experience within IBD's team of markets writers and editors will influence the exposure levels.

  Under the new system, investors who follow IBD's ETF Market Strategy will have more flexibility with their buys and sells. A strong follow-through with lots of top-notch breakouts may warrant a 40% initial position. A dubious gain in below-average but higher volume may keep you at 0%-20% exposure. You can take IBD's exposure range and shape it to your own risk management in the stock market. You might, for instance, find 5%-10% to be the right exposure for you.

• Ultimately, the Stock Market Exposure levels will give you greater insight into how to manage your portfolio in every stage of a bull or bear market.

  Follow Nielsen on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @IBD_JNielsen for more stock market content and analysis.

• 
  

血流成河！WSJ：习整肃网络巨头3年 市值蒸发高达…

 中国自2020年大举整肃阿里巴巴等中国网络巨头以来，导致这些大型企业市值大幅缩水。（路透档案照）

阿里巴巴及腾讯等中国网络巨头，自2020年习近平大举整肃以来，短短3年总市值蒸发1.2兆美元。阿里、腾讯、美团市值几乎腰斩。最新的状况，中国人行（央行）宣布，蚂蚁集团旗下支付平台支付宝变成无实际控制人，也就是马云失去控制权，支付宝最终被习近平“共富”了。

《华尔街日报》报导，中国网络巨擘的投资者经历动盪的 2021 年、黯淡的 2022 年和令人失望的 2023 年。这个曾经炙手可热的产业度过三年的惨烈监管后，许多投资人都在问，接下来会走向何方？

报导指出，北京从2020年对网络巨头展开监管打压以来，中国网络产业市值已蒸发超过 1.2 兆美元，当局祭出天价罚款、整改，加上商业策略变化。曾经的股市宠儿股价已较峰值下跌一半以上。

中国人行（央行）宣布，蚂蚁集团旗下支付平台支付宝变成无实际控制人，马云失去控制权，支付宝最终被习近平“共富”了。（路透、法新社，本报合成）

统计显示，美团市值从2020年的2236亿美元，降至2023年的655亿美元，跌幅70.7%；同期间，百度市值从1826亿美元跌至418亿美元，跌幅77.1%；阿里巴巴市值自6492亿美元缩水至1970亿美元，跌幅69.6%。

至于京东市值则从2020年的1352亿美元跌至2023年的454亿美元，跌幅66.4%；腾讯市值从6917亿美元降至3534亿美元，跌幅49%。拚多多跌幅较小，市值从2201亿美元降至1944亿美元，跌幅11.6%。

报导认为，儘管中国网络巨头股价暴跌，对投资人而言，似乎相对便宜，风险仍不低。因为就在圣诞节前夕，中国当局再次重击游戏业，导致网易及腾讯股票遭到大规模抛售。这对许多投资者来说是巨大打击，他们原本认为中国对科技巨头的监管打压已经结束。

骏利亨德森（Janus Henderson）驻伦敦投资组合经理布莱克本（Oliver Blackbourn）表示，投资人最渴望企业具有确定和稳定的经商环境，然而（北京）持续的干预，几乎无法让市场对企业前景具有信心。

How to renew a passport in 10 to 20 business days

 

How to renew a passport in 10 to 20 business days

1. Complete the form
2. Get all the required documents and your passport photos
3. Find 2 references
4. Submit your application and pay your fees
5. Get your passport

美股：减仓过节

 尽管2023年美股市场的空头们已经被打得鼻青脸肿，但即便是看多者也不得不承认，当下这波自11月开启延续至今的圣诞行情有些疯狂了。

对于没有情绪负累只是不断向前的时间来说，节日本没有什么意义，但人类亘古以来顺天时的操作周期，使得节日也真具有了市场节点的意义。

对于2024的美股行情几乎无人敢再看空，就连最有名的美股大空头——摩根士丹利股票策略分析师Mike Wilson都被迫认错：这一年我都错了，鲍威尔没有阻止金融环境的宽松，美股迎来上涨的绿灯。

但是投资者最关注的问题在于，2024年还会和2023年一样仍是七大科技股的天下吗？

最不符合预期的2023牛市

2023年的市场可以说最不符合机构年初预期的走势，一方面接连出现重磅坏消息，甚至有一小波中小银行倒闭潮，整个舆论都是一路在唱衰美股和美国经济。

另外，2023年美股市场在指数不断上扬的过程中，一直存在两大问题，也是总被视为反弹市场而非牛市的根本。

“头重脚轻”，缺乏广度

第一大问题就在于，前11个月股指不断上涨的行情几乎全部由七大科技股带动，大部分的中小股票一直在低位，考虑到2022年崩盘式下跌的走势，很多成长型股票还处于历史低位。

这种极端集中的涨势使得资金愈加抱团，再加上指数基金的被动买入，进一步加大了股价分化的趋势，使得七大科技估值处于前所未有的高位，没有办法承受丁点儿的增长下滑，为后市积累了风险。

融资市场复苏缓慢

作为投资市场，2023年美股可谓打了个翻身仗，但作为融资市场，情况就没那么乐观了。

如果说美股指数走出了六亲不认的态势，丝毫不惧长期高利率环境，那么美股的融资状况，更为清晰地反映了紧缩货币政策带来的负面影响。

2023年，美国市场的IPO总量仅略高于2022年，比繁华的2021年相比下降了90%以上。虽然2021年的畸形繁荣并非常态，但2022年美股市场可谓崩盘式下跌的行情，而2023更接近于2022。

当然，相比全球的一片惨淡，美股市场还算是好的，2023年全球IPO市场募资额是2009年以来最糟糕的一年。在加拿大，主要交易所已经连续两年每年只有一家公司完成IPO，这在过去20年都史无前例。

更为糟糕的是，今年在美国上市的几家关注度比较高的大型科技公司的首份季报大多未能达到盈利预期，上市后市值大幅缩水，甚至跌破发行价，使得融资市场的热情进一步冷却。

2024平稳看多之余，结构会变吗？

投资空头们过去一年遭遇了重锤，加上2024年美联储货币政策宽松已成定局，目前机构对后市整体看多。

经受住了2023年超高利率的考验，美国经济软着陆的概率更大，那么，接下来的美股上涨仍然会是极度集中的态势吗？

事实上，年尾这一波行情已经开始悄然改变，股市反弹进入了一个更健康的阶段，最近的上涨也已不仅仅是七支大型科技股的故事。

随着标普500指数逼近新高、纳斯达克100指数和道琼斯工业平均指数已经创历史新高，美国股市的涨势已经扩大到了小盘股等其他领域。

摩根斯坦利的Wilson，也就是那个连续几年坚决看空者，在近期的一份报告中写道：“在过去的一个月里，我们经历了可以说是2023年最好的一次广度改善。”

股市的上涨正在从科技板块、通信服务板块和非必需消费品板块等领先行业转向金融、工业和房地产等领域，过去一个月，后三个板块是标准普尔500指数中涨幅最大的板块之一。

Wilson直言，美联储的政策转向“对股市来说是个好消息”，这意味着美联储开始更多地关注经济上涨，而不是担心通胀下降是否可以持续，那么软着陆的可能性就会上升，这将带动小盘股等在今年表现弱于大盘的板块迎来补涨行情。

随着市场进入全面上涨，在美联储政策明确转向的态势下，2024年IPO市场的前景似乎将有所改善。毕竟，股票市场还是要为融资服务的，没有优异的成长型资产上市，投资市场也不可能长期保持繁荣。

美国银行的美洲股票资本市场主管Jim Cooney表示：“投资者已经重新开始寻找成长型资产，IPO市场提供了这种选择。”另外，对于资本密集型的成长型科创生物医药等企业，经历了两年的严厉打压，也非常需要获得融资。

当下，二级市场对股票的定价上升，以及VIX指数接近2020年1月以来的最低水平，均有助于美国IPO市场的复苏。

要想美国IPO市场全面复苏，宏观面上美联储的货币政策大概率已经确定，市场目前预计联邦基金利率2024年将下降75个基点。

另外一方面，则要有一个全面活跃的市场，资本愿意入场购买新股，这意味着，仅靠大科技带动的股指上涨是不够的。

过去这一两年，投资者愿意为新公司IPO支付的价格大幅下滑，和公司自己的看法和需求差距较大，不过随着利率的下调、二级市场中小股价的上涨，这一差距也在缩小。

目前来看，2024年的不确定因素来自于地缘政治和总统大选，单从经济面来看，稳字当头。

2024年预期将进行较大规模IPO的公司包括体育电商平台Fanatics、快时尚电商Shein、“贴吧”Reddit等。另外，还有一些关注度较高的公司包括，马斯克旗下的SpaceX、人造肉公司Impossible Foods、大数据公司Databricks。

节前最后一次预测，2024年的美股大科技稳字当先，二三线科技股机会更大，从而带来IPO市场的进一步复苏。

投资最终为了幸福生活，在此恭祝各位节日快乐！

摩根士丹利发布2024年股市展望，投资组合该如何布局？

 摩根士丹利Morgan Stanley的策略师Mike Wilson认为，美国股市最终将在2024年实现盈利复苏，但他认为标普500指数在未来12个月里只能涨至4500点。

这一预测值，意味着相较于上周五的收盘价，标普的上涨空间不到2%。

该投行的首席美国股票策略师Wilson指出，尽管标普500指数今年迄今上涨了约15%，但这波小幅上涨一直都倾向于“七巨头”身上。他在周一的一份报告中表示，预计这种隐藏的盈利疲软将持续到2024年初，然后才会复苏。

"随着明年的到来，短期内的不确定性将让位给盈利的复苏，" Wilson表示。

此策略师预测，随着高劳动力成本压力的减轻，2024年盈利将同比增长7%，营收将实现4%-5%的增长，利润率将实现温和增长。

Wilson表示，与此同时，由于宏观风险，短期内盈利仍将受到挑战。公司言论一直持谨慎态度，由于地缘政治和周期性风险上升，消费者信心数据有所下降。他补充称，"利率将在更长时间内走高"的环境也给公司和消费者带来压力。他认为，在复苏到来前，这些因素将对盈利构成挑战，直到2024年初。

考虑到这一点，这位策略师强调，防御型增长和处于周期末期的周期性投资组合可能会跑赢大盘。

"我们认为个股风险仍处于高位，这应有利于选股环境，并表明在市场表面之下存在更丰富的机会，其估值比市值加权指数水平更具吸引力，" Wilson表示。

这位策略师预测，由于积极的经营杠杆，以及人工智能和技术推动的生产率增长，2025年的利润增长率将达到16%。

根据CNBC Pro的市场策略师调查，Wilson是2023年华尔街同行中最看跌的分析师之一，他预测大盘指数将在今年年底收于3900点。