2024 | Seekingalpha.com | Top 30 stocks | Citibank.com

 

Citi’s 30 stocks for its 2024 top themes

Jan. 08, 2024 11:16 AM ETiShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF)EIX, AMZN, IWP, MA, GPN, FI, EQIX, NOV, CCL, GTLS, MLM, ACM, LRN, SSNC, UAL, META, WIX, QTWO, GOOGL, GDDY, W, HUBS, PYPL, UBER, DOCU, DKNG, DASH, U, RBLX, APP, SQSPBy: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor23 Comments

Citi, in its Thematic Equity Strategy report, published its 30 top buy-rated stocks for each of its top themes for 2024.

According to the report, analysts see these 30 stocks’ 2024 sales growth being greater than the Russell 1000 (NYSEARCA:IWF) consensus, their upwards 2024 consensus sales revisions also above the Russell 1000 consensus, their price-to-earnings growth or enterprise value to EBITDA growth below the Russell 1000, and their 2024 consensus EBITDA or EPS growth above their expected sales growth.

From the list, eight stocks fall into the Russell Top 200 (RT200), 17 in the Russell mid-cap (IWP), four in the Russell 2000 (IWF), and one outside of the Russell 3000.

Also, the stocks are equally weighted, and their growth/value style exposure is relatively balanced, with a slight growth bias.

Theme: Artificial Intelligence

• Amazon.com (AMZN) - expected total return: 45%
• Alphabet (GOOGL) - expected total return: 12%
• Meta Platforms (META) - expected total return: 22%

Theme: Infrastructure and Fossil Fuels

• AECOM (ACM) - expected total return: 20%
• Edison International (EIX) - expected total return: 23%
• Chart Industries (GTLS) - expected total return: 54%
• Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) - expected total return: 6%
• NOV (NOV) - expected total return: 41%
• United Airlines Holdings (UAL) - expected total return: 75%

Theme: Experiential Commerce

• Carnival (CCL) - expected total return:36%
• DoorDash (DASH) - expected total return: 33%
• Uber Technologies (UBER) - expected total return: 30%

Theme: Digital Leisure

• GoDaddy (GDDY) - expected total return: 29%
• AppLovin (APP) - expected total return: 47%
• DraftKings (DKNG) - expected total return: 31%
• Roblox (RBLX) - expected total return: 20%
• Unity Software (U) - expected total return: 35%
• Wix.com (WIX) - expected total return: 20%

Theme: Internet-driven Business Models

• DocuSign (DOCU) - expected total return: 64%
• Equinix (EQIX) - expected total return: 14%
• HubSpot (HUBS) - expected total return: 30%
• Stride (LRN) - expected total return: 18%
• Q2 Holdings (QTWO) - expected total return: 4%
• Squarespace (SQSP) - expected total return: 30%
• Wayfair (W) - expected total return: 42%

Theme: Fin-tech

• Fiserv (FI) - expected total return: 14%
• Global Payments (GPN) - expected total return: 17%
• Mastercard (MA) - expected total return: 14%
• PayPal Holdings (PYPL) - expected total return: 44%
• SS&C Technologies (SSNC) - expected total return: 9%

More on iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF:

• IWF: Price Isn't Everything; Favor Growth Over Value
• IWF ETF: Be Cautious Of High Valuations
• Top overweight stocks with high growth and low volume - MS
• Top overweight stocks with high free cash flow and EPS growth - MS
• Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF

Citi | Wealth outlook 2024 | North America: an emerging set of new opportunities

Here is the link. 

North America: an emerging set of new opportunities

Page 127

Considerations 

• Investors should consider tilting equity exposures toward small- and mid-sized companies (especially growth) and early cyclicals. These are places to potentially find growth amid an economic slowdown and capture market leadership shifts as the Fed eases. 

• We believe this is a moment to lock in current high yields with investmentgrade intermediate maturity bonds.

• Focus on beneficiaries of US-China polarization, including areas of tech and tech-enabled industrial stocks.

Seekingalpha.com | Citi’s 30 stocks for its 2024 top themes

Citi | Wealth outlook 2024 |

Here is the report. 

Page 20 

— After-inflation US Treasury yields of 2.5% are currently higher than 80% of all periods in the past 25 years.

 

The inversion of the US yield curve, even if less pronounced than before, remains an indicator of tight monetary policy. This can leave the economy more vulnerable to a shock, as was the case when the pandemic hit. Another supply shock that tips the economy into a broader recession can never be ruled out given geopolitical uncertainties. If a new, global shock were to materialize, monetary easing could be more profound than we expected, but it would be no immediate substitute for economic growth and profits. 

Assuming no imminent recession or major global supply shock, it seems likely that the Fed will ease monetary policy gradually in the coming few years. This should be consistent with 10-year US Treasury yields falling back somewhat, perhaps to 3.75% by year-end 2024. Investors should also understand that the long period of zero interest rates – and even negative yielding bonds – will go down in history as an outlier. We see this much like the mirror opposite period of “great monetary neglect,” which boosted inflation and yields throughout the 1970s.

 

 Investment strategy: both income and growth opportunities have been restored

The two pillars of investment returns – income and growth – have been reinvigorated. Yields in the US have risen toward two-decade highs ( FIGURE 10 ).

 With investment grade US corporate bond yields averaging 6% and inflation decelerating, it is quite possible to earn real returns of 4% across a diversified range of fixed income (please see Core portfolios could be ready to shine on page 34). At the same time, tight monetary policy has driven both bond and equity investors to focus predominantly on the largest and safest perceived corporate balance sheets. This has left numerous growth opportunities behind. The seven largest US technology-related shares have driven most of the return in global equities in 2023. We believe this is unlikely to be the case in 2024 and 2025.

Book | Scalability Rules | Book notes | Github:

Here is the link. 

This post is a note/headline for reading book Scalability Rules, so in the future I can look back to this rather than finding the book. If you find this interesting, go search Scalability Rules. Great book.

Before all of these below, please devote to the bible of scalable system CAP.

I. Reduce the equation

• 1. Don't overengineer the solution. Complex systems result in costly effort and maintenance, decompose complex requirements into smaller systems, and make them sharable and reusable.
• 2. Design scale into solution. Design to 20x capacity, implement for 3x capacity and deploy for ~1.5x capacity.
• 3. Simply the solution 3 times over(Pareto Principle). This falls into Rule(1), but remember simplification is not necessarily considered as always good.
• 4. Reduce DNS lookups.
• 5. Reduce objects where possible. Frontend stuff.
• 6. Use homogenous networks. Hardware.
• 7. Design to clone things(x-axis). Or horizontal scalability, essentially the duplication of services. This is the most important ideology in scalability I'd say.

    

II. Distribute the work

   

• For services, ensure it is logically simple(use standardized interface e.g. RESTful/RPC) and easy to clone, use a load balancer.
• For databases, normally used when Read >> Write. Master-Slave / Consistent Hashing etc. note ACID
• 8. Design to split different things(y-axis). Which I don't care much.
• 9. Design to split similar things(z-axis). ..Either.

III. Design to scale out horizontally

• 10. Design your solution to scale out, not just up.
• Scaling out means the replication of services.
• Scaling up means upgrading computing resources. This is really just a duplicate from Rule(7). meh.
• 11. Use commodity systems. Be cost-effective.
• 12. Scale out your data centers. This is more of a concern on availability and failover, so always prepare for multiple data centers. Models may vary.
• 13. Design to leverage the cloud. e.g store unimportant files in S3 (I will never save important data in S3).

IV. Use the right tools

• 14. Use databases appropriately.
• Use RDBMS for cross-table lookup. e.g. MySQL.
• Use NoSQL for simple R/W key-value queries. e.g. for great scalability, Cassandra; for great CRDT support, Riak; for lightweight, LevelDB. There are tons of options, the world of databases is heaven.
• 15. Don't abusively use firewalls, it makes the network slow. Put firewall only in the critical path.
• 16. It is never too less for logging. Use reliable and fast tools such as Maxwell for aggregation, and make it well rotated.

V. Don't duplicate your work

• 17. Don't check your work. I'd say avoid duplicated data validation, act upon failures.
• 18. Reduce redirecting traffic. This only applies for HTML level, per se. Traffic redirection is key in server configuration and load balancing, especially for inter-service traffic.
• 19. Alleviate temporal constraints.

VI. Use caching aggressively. Damn, I love it.

• 20. Leverage CDN.
• 21. Use Expires headers. HTML headers offer more than you could ever imagine.
• 22. Cache Ajax calls. Use Last-Modified, Cache-Control and Expires.
• 23. Leverage page caches. Reverse proxy
• 24. Utilize application caches. Cache whatever users mostly request, and find the best balance between performance and cost.
• 25. Make use of object caches(aka in-memory cache).
• 26. Put object caches on their own tier. Though I regrettably did this multiple times, caching should never be embedded with a critical path. i.e. whenever caching fails, requests should always be properly forwarded to the database. Generally, a caching service should sit between the API layer and the service layer(which operates database commands).

Linkedin.com | Mingtian Ni | Book reading: "Scalability Rules - 50 Principles For Scaling Web Sites"

 Power of expression -

I recently skimmed through a book titled "Scalability Rules - 50 Principles For Scaling Web Sites". The book doesn't propose many novel ideas that didn't exist before. However, I find the mental models for framing those principles are very powerful. For example, when talking about 'reducing the equation' in the first chapter, the book boils it down to three layers:
1) let our customers do less work - by simplying UX,
2) let our systems do less work - by optimize system performance,
3) let our engineers do less work - by simplify system design and improve maintainability.

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TP-Link AX1800 WiFi 6 USB Adapter for Desktop PC (Archer TX20U Plus) - Wireless Network Adapter with 2.4GHz, 5GHz, High Gain Dual Band 5dBi Antenna, WPA3, Supports Windows 11/10

1. Mini desktop from dell
2. Extra monitor
3. HDMI adapter for second monitor 
4. TP-Link AX1800 Wifi 6 USB adapter 

【股票】1個月股價漲1倍！贏家解密飆股「最佳買點」！最簡單的交易SOP大公開！ft. 阿魯米、達文熙、蔡尚樺｜下班經濟學200

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最近行情盤整量縮，現在進場很容易會「砍在阿呆股、賣在起漲點」，到底有什麼方法可以擺脫散戶宿命？今天我們就找來阿魯米跟達文熙，教你如何利用「箱子戰法」，在風險可控的情況下，抓出起漲的關鍵點位！一起來看看他們是怎樣做到的？ #股票 #投資 #技術分析 00:00 精彩開場 01:05 台股萬七站不穩? 達人解密大盤量縮4大元凶! 04:32 台股今年難創新高? 投資人下一步如何布局? 05:28 想當航海王卻變韭菜! 達人解讀散戶必敗思維 08:00 專家一張圖教你畫箱子! 找出股票關鍵起漲點 10:40 該突破追高還是回檔低接? 2分鐘搞懂優缺點! 12:47 買強勢股別怕追高!高手教你設定進場停損點! 13:56 箱子戰法實戰教學!一張圖掌握加碼、停利時機 16:42 茫茫股海挑好股! 專家3條件選出隔日冲標的! 19:04 當沖選股SOP全公開!高手如何設保命停損點? 22:27 箱子戰法一招走天下! 做好2件事不再當韭菜!

KB Home

 KB Home is a homebuilding company based in the United States, founded in 1957 as Kaufman & Broad in Detroit, Michigan. It was the first company to be traded on the NYSE as a home builder. Its headquarters are in Los Angeles, California.

The company has built 600,000 homes since its founding.^[5] It builds homes primarily for first-time home buyers.

Rolls-Royce topped European stocks in 2023

 UK engine maker’s performance on Stoxx 600 comfortably beats Danish pharma giant Novo Nordisk

Ray Douglas

 DECEMBER 31 2023

投資新手必懂"投資心理學"！

Here is the link.

贏家沒說的秘密！投資新手必懂"投資心理學"！破解股市"套利"三部曲| 股市老先覺 李永年 |【理財志聊室】20191217｜王志郁Plus

Jump into this rally and let it run until the first cut, says SoFi's Liz Young

Investors should go shopping in areas with underperformance, says iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso

2 Year Treasury Rate

 Basic Info. 2 Year Treasury Rate is at 4.40%, compared to 4.38% the previous market day and 4.45% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 3.19%.

The stock market still has a lot of room to run, says Morningstar Wealth's Marta Norton

Investors will have greater optionality across sectors in 2024, says iCapital's Anastasia Amoroso

Economy will slow 'substantially' next year compared to the current pace: Marathon Asset's Richards

Here is the link.

Bruce Richards, Marathon Asset Management CEO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether Richards' outlook for the economy has changed in the last few weeks, if the equity market is due for a correction, and more.

巴菲特的新动作，8200万美元增持TA

 当地时间周四晚间提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的一份文件显示，沃伦·巴菲特旗下公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦（下称“伯克希尔”）在1月2日至1月4日期间购买了近280万股Liberty SiriusXM股票，耗资约8200万美元。目前，伯克希尔总计持有约6620万股Liberty SiriusXM，持股比例约20%，按周四收盘价计算价值约20亿美元。

8200万美元增持Liberty SiriusXM

根据伯克希尔向SEC提交的Form 4文件，1月2日至1月4日期间，伯克希尔支付了大约8200万美元，购买了近280万股Liberty SiriusXM股票。目前，伯克希尔在Liberty SiriusXM的持股比例约为20%。

伯克希尔同时购买了有投票权和无投票权的Liberty SiriusXM股票。具体来看，伯克希尔购买了109.0754万股Liberty SiriusXM A类有投票权股票，目前持有2129.8434万股；还购买了166.9219万股Liberty SiriusXM无投票权C类股票，目前持有4487.751万股。

据悉，本次伯克希尔加仓的Liberty SiriusXM为追踪股（tracking stock）。追踪股是公司发行的一种普通股票，其价值仅与公司一些特定部门或子公司经营业绩挂钩，而不与整个公司经营情况挂钩。它们与母公司的股票分开交易。发行追踪股票通常是为了将高增长部门与其母公司分开，而母公司及其股东仍控制着子公司的运营。

本次伯克希尔购买的追踪股票由自由媒体公司（Liberty Media）发行，自由媒体公司通过追踪股持有SiriusXM Holdings大约82%的股份。SiriusXM是一家美国广播公司。

官网资料显示，SiriusXM以卫星广播和在线广播的形式向听众提供电台广播服务。SiriusXM的平台共覆盖1.5亿多听众，涵盖音乐、体育、谈话和播客等所有类别的数字音频，是北美地区覆盖范围最大的数字音频提供商。除音频娱乐业务外，SiriusXM还为汽车制造商提供车联网服务，为客户提供一整套安全、安保和便利服务，包括碰撞自动通知、被盗车辆找回协助、增强型道路救援和逐向导航，并正在开发车载商务解决方案。

事实上，伯克希尔最早于2016年就持有了Liberty SiriusXM的股票。据伯克希尔此前向SEC提供的2023年三季度持仓报告，Liberty SiriusXM是伯克希尔第21大持仓股票。

为何加仓“追踪股”？

目前，Liberty Media公司以及SiriusXM公司在美股均有单独发行股票，如果是看好公司未来前景，为何伯克希尔选择加仓Liberty Media公司发行的SiriusXM追踪股票，而不是直接购买SiriusXM公司股票？

有市场观点认为，Liberty SiriusXM追踪股票的吸引力在于，Liberty SiriusXM的交易价格历来比其所持Sirius XM股份的资产价值低25%至30%。价差较大的部分原因是因为SiriusXM股票的浮动量较小，做空困难，使得套利者很难买入追踪股票并卖空SiriusXM。

就在2023年12月，Liberty Media公司和SiriusXM公司宣布了一项交易，将把Liberty Media发行的追踪股票与SiriusXM合并。经过折算调整后，Liberty SiriusXM的股东将获得一定比例的新SiriusXM的股票。两家公司表示，通过简化SiriusXM控股公司的结构，这项交易对双方股东都有利。

这一交易预计将在2024年第三季度初完成。因此部分市场多头开始押注，随着合并交易的临近，追踪股票与SiriusXM股票间的差距缩小，追踪股票的持有者可能会获得收益。不过也有投资者认为，SiriusXM股票目前估值过高，一旦交易完成，其价格将大幅下跌。

据美国《巴伦周刊》报道，一些长期追踪伯克希尔投资动向的人士认为，伯克希尔针对Liberty SiriusXM的投资是由公司投资经理特德·韦施勒（Ted Weschler）而不是首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）主导的。韦施勒和托德·康姆斯（Todd Combs）管理着伯克希尔约3500亿美元股票投资组合中的约10%，巴菲特管理着另外90%。据知情人士透露，韦施勒与自由媒体首席执行官格雷格·马菲（Greg Maffei）关系良好。

Russell 2000 small and mid-cap stocks have a lot of catch-up coming, says Dynamic Funds' Blackstein

Here is the link.

Noah Blackstein, senior portfolio manager at Dynamic Funds, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss whether the S&P 500 will get to new highs before the end of the year, how multiples will perform, and what the Federal Reserve would do if the economy stays strong.

Small-cap stocks will make their comeback in 2024, says Alger's Amy Zhang

Here is the link. 

Amy Zhang, Executive Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Alger, discusses why she sees opportunity in small-cap stocks.

IJT, SLYG, VIOG

Markets have a 50% chance to see double-digit growth in 2024, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

Here is the link. 

Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors founder, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his market expectations, bullish call on stocks in 2023, and more.

Fed will end its war against inflation in 2024, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

Here is the link. 

Tom Lee, Fundstrat, joins 'Closing Bell' to offer his year-end bullish case on the markets.

The outlook for 2024

Fundstrat's Tom Lee:

• Equities to surprise consensus to the upside, with 12-15% returns
• Expect most of the gain in 2nd half
• Base case: inflation tracking below consensus leaded to easing conditions

Betting on the bull case - Tom Lee's outlook for 2024

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IBD digital | When To Sell Growth Stocks: Don't Freeze If A Double-Digit Gain Shrinks Fast

Here is the article. 

ETF for magnificent 7 stocks

 What is the best ETF for magnificent 7 stocks?

ETFs to Tap

• The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF ( MAGS ) Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF offers investors concentrated exposure to the “Magnificent Seven” stocks. ...
• MicroSectors FANG+ ETN ( FNGS ) ...
• Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF ( MGK ) ...
• Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF ( XLG ) ...
• iShares S&P 100 ETF ( OEF )