成功者未必是能力强！绝大多数其实都只是《随机漫步的傻瓜》

 塔勒布的书，经常传递了一种智慧，一种哲理，他并不是教你如何做的方法论，但却能让你的格局明显的提升，可以让你找对方向。

 

作者上来就说，很多交易员分明就是靠运气，却总是被误认为，是凭借技术完成的交易，这些人只是所谓的幸运的傻子而已，因为他们眼中低估了很多事情中的随机成分，比如大家都觉得马云很成功，但是如果当年eBay死磕到底，或者没有爆发非典，又或者互联网基础建设不及预期，那么电商可能还是会起来，但是未必一定是淘宝。京东也一样，如果2010年他没有遇到今日资本的徐新，那么京东在那时候就已经跟什么新蛋网一样，早就倒下了。所以这其实就是幸存者偏差，他成功的道路上，有太多的随机性。而这些并非是必然。拿老齐来说也一样，如果我没有自学财务知识，如果我没有去电视台，没有赶上大牛市，没有转型互联网，没有自媒体浪潮，没有转型投资公司，绝对混不成今天这个样，所以我一直都跟别人说，我的路不但你复制不了，连我自己重新走一遍，都复制不了，这一路上有太多的偶然。今天我可以说，读书改变命运，但是这些偶然没有发生，那还会不会改变命运呢？我相信会，但是肯定命运的结果不一样。

 

作者列出了一张表格，偶然和必然分居左右，偶然要靠运气，随机性，概率，想法，利率，巧合以及预测，而必然，靠的是技术，决定，必然性，知识，实际，因果法则和先知。而最后的市场表现来看，偶然催生幸运的傻子，幸存者偏差，而必然则诞生专业投资人，和市场优势。

 

这本书的结构非常简单，先说的就是黑天鹅事件，不可预知的事件，接着说打字机前的猴子，主要讲幸存者偏差，最后告诉我们，该如何活在随机的世界中。

 

先看黑天鹅事件，这个我们之前已经讲过了，黑天鹅就是指的那些不可预知的风险，作者举例，一个叫做塔利波的人，参观了芝加哥商品交易所后就迷上了证券交易，为了成为一个优秀的交易员他不断地研究，甚至读了芝加哥大学统计学博士，还转到了哲学系，他企图把哲学和统计学打通，他也精通计算金融商品，很早就崭露头角，很多投资公司也高薪聘请他加盟，他当交易员的目的不在于赚多少钱，而纯粹就是为了好玩。所以他绝不想追求什么位高权重，也不想当什么高管。他一心要转到自营部门，说白了就是用公司自己的钱，去做交易。

塔勒布的书，经常传递了一种智慧，一种哲理，他并不是教你如何做的方法论，但却能让你的格局明显的提升，可以让你找对方向。

 

作者上来就说，很多交易员分明就是靠运气，却总是被误认为，是凭借技术完成的交易，这些人只是所谓的幸运的傻子而已，因为他们眼中低估了很多事情中的随机成分，比如大家都觉得马云很成功，但是如果当年eBay死磕到底，或者没有爆发非典，又或者互联网基础建设不及预期，那么电商可能还是会起来，但是未必一定是淘宝。京东也一样，如果2010年他没有遇到今日资本的徐新，那么京东在那时候就已经跟什么新蛋网一样，早就倒下了。所以这其实就是幸存者偏差，他成功的道路上，有太多的随机性。而这些并非是必然。拿老齐来说也一样，如果我没有自学财务知识，如果我没有去电视台，没有赶上大牛市，没有转型互联网，没有自媒体浪潮，没有转型投资公司，绝对混不成今天这个样，所以我一直都跟别人说，我的路不但你复制不了，连我自己重新走一遍，都复制不了，这一路上有太多的偶然。今天我可以说，读书改变命运，但是这些偶然没有发生，那还会不会改变命运呢？我相信会，但是肯定命运的结果不一样。

 

作者列出了一张表格，偶然和必然分居左右，偶然要靠运气，随机性，概率，想法，利率，巧合以及预测，而必然，靠的是技术，决定，必然性，知识，实际，因果法则和先知。而最后的市场表现来看，偶然催生幸运的傻子，幸存者偏差，而必然则诞生专业投资人，和市场优势。

 

这本书的结构非常简单，先说的就是黑天鹅事件，不可预知的事件，接着说打字机前的猴子，主要讲幸存者偏差，最后告诉我们，该如何活在随机的世界中。

 

先看黑天鹅事件，这个我们之前已经讲过了，黑天鹅就是指的那些不可预知的风险，作者举例，一个叫做塔利波的人，参观了芝加哥商品交易所后就迷上了证券交易，为了成为一个优秀的交易员他不断地研究，甚至读了芝加哥大学统计学博士，还转到了哲学系，他企图把哲学和统计学打通，他也精通计算金融商品，很早就崭露头角，很多投资公司也高薪聘请他加盟，他当交易员的目的不在于赚多少钱，而纯粹就是为了好玩。所以他绝不想追求什么位高权重，也不想当什么高管。他一心要转到自营部门，说白了就是用公司自己的钱，去做交易。

塔利波是比较保守的，他总是习惯于把赚到的钱，积累起来，形成储蓄。而不是连本带利都再投进去，所以在股市表现很好的90年代，他的业绩很一般。他之所以这么干，还是因为他觉得交易很有趣，他在享受交易的乐趣，而并非赚钱，他希望把这个工作干的更长久，而不是赚一把钱就走，他可不想回到那些行政岗位上去，果然94年美联储开始紧缩银根，而让大量的交易员爆仓，结果这些前一年业绩十分优秀的人就被扫地出门，作者用了炸毁这个词。

塔利波讲，他希望赔小钱，赚大钱，而不愿意冒全军覆没的风险，而且此人生性多疑，只愿意投公债，连股票都很少买，所以自然就错过了多头市场，业绩一直表现不佳。不过塔利波的保守也让他具备一个优势，那就是他也不担心空头会突然降临，正所谓没有买卖就没有伤害，没有期望也就没有失望，他不想投资致富，就想稳定获得收入，所以他也就总是很安全。公债这种东西，是不会有问题的。毕竟政府破产是不可能的，因为他们掌握着印钞机。

 

所以他能够一干就是14年，身边的对手换了一波又一波，他却平安无事。他的想法其实跟老齐差不多，我也总在想一些极端的坏事情，比如假如有一天，真的啥都不干了，完全无法从工作中得到一分钱收入了，我该如何维持现在的生活。所幸这个目标我已经达到了，当你把极端的风险都提前想到了，那么你生命中就全都是惊喜，没什么可害怕的了。

 

按照作者的一贯做法，介绍完一个人，必定还有一个完全相反的对照组，这就是富豪交易员约翰，他完全是塔利波的反面，他可比塔利波赚的钱多多了，有大房子，顶级豪车，约翰也不怎么爱学习，家里摆的都是皮革精装书，一般这么整整齐齐布置书架的人，都是根本不看书的，真正读书的人，书架一定是五花八门五颜六色的。约翰比塔利波晚入行5年，但收入却是他的十倍，不过在塔利波看来，就是一个土大款，暴发户而已。他们属于互相瞧不上的那种。

 

所有的不幸福其实都是来源于比较，比如大家都很穷的时候，日子过得很开心，但是一旦贫富分化了，日子就不幸福了。比如卡尼曼就说，大家宁可别人赚5万，他赚6万，也不愿意别人赚8万，他自己赚7万。所以约翰让塔利波很不爽，他就很有必要证明，约翰只不过是运气好而已。他说，参与高收益市场，就好比在铁轨上打盹，终有一天你会被火车怼死。之前他见到过无数的交易员，都曾经功成名就，但却又一夜返贫。但是约翰却始终认为，塔利波这家伙就是羡慕嫉妒恨，自己笨蛋还耽误别人赚钱。

终于1998年9月，塔利波的证据来了，约翰在一次交易中，损失惨重，被公司炒了鱿鱼。他也几乎失去了一切。此时的塔利波不再幸灾乐祸，甚至还有点内疚了。但这也再次证明了，他的判断是正确的。

 

作者发问，我们能够根据一个人表现和财富，就判断他是否更成功吗？有时可以，但不见得永远如此，不少企业家的表现，总是大起大落，很短的时间内能够积攒更多的财富，但是也能在很短的时间内赔个干净，所以这其实只是运气好而已，属于暂时保管财富，只是财富的搬运工，而并非是最后的拥有者。赚钱的交易员，就像注射血清素的猴子，更有表现欲望，所以他们看起来地位上升了，然后开始总结自己的成功，错误的把一些幸运的因素，归结为自己的英明神武，把偶然当成必然，比如煤老板，不小心在煤炭上发了大财，这主要是因为大宗商品周期到了，康波上行，所以煤炭很贵。但他们却认为找到了发家致富的通用法则，于是大量银行贷款，不断的收购煤矿，并且大量开采。结果周期转向，煤炭价格大跌，2012年以后，煤老板持续破产，曾经全中国最富有的一帮人，却变得债台高筑。

 

人都有个坏习惯，就是在社交场不断的问别人是否赚钱，但这其实没什么用，因为如果他赚钱了，他一定会主动告诉你，如果他没赚钱，你要问他，那就友尽于此了。这其实就跟春节回家七大姑八大姨问你结婚生孩子，买房买车没有是一样的讨厌。所以我们看到抖音上，都是百万富翁，这里面有很多事装的，也有一些是真的，但是生活中绝大多数都是穷人，他们只是不主动说话而已。于是你就产生一种错觉，怎么现在有钱人这么多？但其实月入5000以上，你就打败了90%的中国人，刨除老幼妇残，以及读书的刚工作的，就在工作10年中比较，月过万的人数，也仅占22%。你要是能月入2万，就已经是打败99%的人了。

 

所以作者提到一个新奇的想法， 塔利波很有钱，甚至要比富有的约翰还有钱，因为他没有破产的风险。以此推断，有的牙医要比企业家还有钱，因为他总能靠手艺吃饭。而企业家则每天游走在破产边缘。

 

老话讲不要以一时成败论英雄，结果往往说明不了太多问题，有些人的成功，其实蕴藏了巨大的风险，甚至注定会失败。比如现在社会又都很羡慕房子多的，但这其实就跟60年代羡慕农民，70年代羡慕工人，80年代羡慕国企，90年代羡慕外企白领一样，时代一变，价值观就全变了。现在还有人羡慕工人农民吗，外企白领也早就被互联网精英取代了。明天我们用一个奇特的游戏，来纠正一下这样的价值观。

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

 Nassim Nicholas Taleb^[a] (/ˈtɑːləb/; alternatively Nessim or Nissim; born 12 September 1960) is a Lebanese-American essayist, mathematical statistician, former option trader, risk analyst, and aphorist^[1][2] whose work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty.

Taleb is the author of the Incerto, a five-volume philosophical essay on uncertainty published between 2001 and 2018 (notably, The Black Swan and Antifragile). He has been a professor at several universities, serving as a Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at the New York University Tandon School of Engineering since September 2008.^{[3][4][5][6][7]} He has been co-editor-in-chief of the academic journal Risk and Decision Analysis since September 2014. He has also been a practitioner of mathematical finance, a hedge fund manager, and a derivatives trader, and is currently listed as a scientific adviser at Universa Investments.^[8] The Sunday Times called his 2007 book The Black Swan one of the 12 most influential books since World War II.^[9]

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets | Book | Nassim Nicholas Taleb

 Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets is a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that deals with the fallibility of human knowledge. It was first published in 2001. Updated editions were released a few years later. The book is the first part of Taleb's multi-volume philosophical essay on uncertainty, titled the Incerto, which also includes The Black Swan (2007–2010), The Bed of Procrustes (2010–2016), Antifragile (2012), and Skin in the Game (2018).

Here is the link. 

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.

Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.

This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.

The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.

Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

美联储如何调整利率

 一些分析师预计，鲍威尔本周有可能做出这一出人意料的动作……

在三月份政策会议召开之前，美联储如何调整利率将成为本月投资者最为关注的问题。

本周，宏观经济担忧将成为投资者关注的焦点。美联储主席鲍威尔将于周三和周四分别在众议院和参议院发表半年一次的最新货币政策报告，交易员将仔细分析这些证词，以了解降息何时到来。

这位美联储主席和几乎所有同事最近几周都表示，鉴于美国经济的潜在实力，他们在决定何时降息时可以保持耐心。美联储理事沃勒更是直言，“急什么？”

市场对美联储的降息预期已从年初的极端水平大幅下降。现在，他们预计降息将在今年晚些时候开始，并开始向美联储的预期“靠拢”。

在1月份的美联储政策会议上，鲍威尔驳斥了在3月份降息的可能性，坚称美联储在考虑何时松开刹车时将谨慎行事。他在上个月接受采访时表示：

“过早行动的危险在于，工作还没有完全完成，过去6个月非常好的数据，可能在某种程度上并不是通胀走向的真实指标。”

根据芝商所的美联储观察工具，目前市场预期美联储有可能在6月降息25个基点，而不是在3月或5月降息。

自2023年7月以来，美联储一直将利率维持在20多年来的最高水平，这一趋势确实表明，劳动力市场和通胀出现了一些降温。但1月份的数据显示，美国劳动力市场基本上仍保持弹性，而通胀率居高不下，远高于2%。

鲍威尔本周在国会作证时基本上预计将坚持同样的观点。但他的言论将具有更大的意义，因为上个月更热的CPI和PPI报告提醒投资者，美联储达到2%通胀目标的“最后一英里”并不平坦。

NB Private Wealth首席投资官Shannon Saccocia表示。“重点确实已经转回了通胀。鲍威尔发表的任何与他之前所说的不同的言论都有可能成为影响市场的事件。”

但这可能不会让民主党人满意，他们担心利率的走势会对11月的总统选举产生不好的影响。预计他们将向鲍威尔施压，要求其说明在控制通胀方面取得如此大进展的情况下，为何仍冒着损害经济的风险将借贷成本维持在如此高的水平。

另一方面，共和党人可能会强调美联储需要坚持到底以应对仍然居高不下的通胀。今年是政治年，美联储的行动将被从这个角度来看待，无论它多么频繁地发誓不涉及政治。

鲍威尔将坚决不“松口”？

澳新银行分析师周一在一份报告中表示，鲍威尔本周在国会作证时，可能会重申他在利率和通胀问题上的鹰派立场。

虽然鲍威尔不太可能提供任何新的线索，但他可能会重申，在考虑降息之前，美联储需要看到更多通胀缓解的迹象。

澳新银行分析师在一份报告中表示，“我们预计鲍威尔将倾向于鹰派立场，并坚持他自1月份FOMC会议以来的立场，即美联储需要更多令人信服的证据，证明通胀率有望回到2%。”

澳新银行分析师表示，美国经济仍处于“相当良好的状态”，而通胀在近几个月也大幅缓解，但放缓的程度仍然不足以激发人们对通胀将回到2%目标的信心。

美国经济的韧性让美联储有足够的空间等待更多通胀放缓的迹象。澳新银行分析师表示，到今年年中，美联储应该有足够的信心开始放松货币政策，并补充称，他们认为美联储目前的政策设定已经足够严格。

澳新银行分析师还表示，将于本周五公布的2月非农就业数据料将放缓，但仍远高于美联储满意的水平。

不过，也有小部分分析师认为，由于一些政治因素（随着美联储等得越晚，美国总统大选临近，美联储在降息方面就越困难）以及美联储试图避免20世纪70年代的错误，鲍威尔可能会在国会山上“叠甲”，即像去年年尾的议息会议后意外“放鸽”。

这一非常惊人的政策转向将是一种巧妙的尝试，目的是可以在无需真正启动降息进程的情况下放松金融条件，并保住美联储的“声誉”。他们写道：

“毕竟，今年还有几乎9个多月的时间，如果劳动力市场和通胀数据开始转向，或出现某种金融危机，美联储将有更多空间进行政策调整。 ”

Sabre | Drop 20% | Open price: $2/ share | Costly debt exchange

 #SABR #DebtExchange #BigDrop20Percent #PanicSaleAlert #PanicSale #MorningstarSabre #MorningstarAnalystNote

Sabre: Shares Clipped on a Small but Costly Debt Exchange Perhaps Signaling Demand Uncertainty

Dan Wasiolek

Mar 4, 2024

Narrow-moat Sabre's shares dropped around 10% during March 4 trading, which we attribute to investor concerns about the company’s demand prospects after the travel platform operator announced a small, yet high-cost, debt exchange. Sabre is exchanging $150 million of April 2025 debt at a 4% interest rate for $182.6 million in debt (including $32.6 million in cash used for the earlier retirement of the prior note) maturing August 2026 at a rate between 4.0% and 7.5% (to be dictated by its share price). We see the $30 million-plus in cash used to extend $150 million in debt by a year and a half as costly and perhaps stoking angst over the outlook for a recovery in industry air global distribution system volume. That said, we think Sabre should meet its obligations even under the scenario of very minimum recovery in global air bookings, given the company’s $600 million in cash and our forecast for around breakeven and $247 million in free cash flow to equity in 2024 and 2025, respectively. We don’t plan to change our $5 fair value estimate, leaving shares undervalued. Still, we expect shares to remain volatile until there is more visibility on industry air volume demand and certainty on the cost of credit in the marketplace.

DOCU stock | IBD digital interview Jay Woods | Transcript

 And it sounds like we haven't been talking about DocuSign for a while. This was one of the covered darlings, you know, 20, 20, 20. You know, everyone was like, well, gosh, you know, forget these wet signatures, let's go e-signature. And they just really seemed to dominate everyone was afraid that Adobe was going to eat their lunch, but they really, you know, maintained a leadership position there.

00;52;47;28 - 00;53;06;04
Unknown
So what's what's your take on DocuSign? Something that's been out of favor. My take is from a risk reward point of view, it looks like the set up is a little more favorable for the bulls and you have an out you may have to rip this one out of your portfolio immediately. If you're playing it for earnings, take your loss and move on.

00;53;06;10 - 00;53;25;20
Unknown
But given the fact that we have a constructed base, we have a lot to reverse. This thing was in the 200, we're 300. I mean, that's that I would never give an upside target like that, but it is trending. The downtrend has been broken. So I want to stop going down to its bases now. The base is making higher lows.

00;53;25;26 - 00;53;44;19
Unknown
It's holding above its 200 day moving average technical reminds me a little bit of carvana where we saw that same exact thing happen. A lot of fundamentalists at Carvana. But I'll tell you right now, from a technical point of view, knowing that there were shortages in that one as well, the stock has rallied. I don't know the shortage just off the top of my head and DocuSign.

00;53;44;24 - 00;54;05;18
Unknown
But right now the shot up is trending above its 200 day moving average. It's flattening, starting the turn up. I think if you get positive reaction to earnings, maybe they guide that this stock in gap you if you're not in it maybe you want to buy that gap put your stocks close to you when you buy gas on an opening so like two and a half, 3% below.

00;54;05;24 - 00;54;26;25
Unknown
But it can run and it could run quickly. So the setup for DocuSign, to me, risk reward point of view is very appetizing and it may be worth a flier next week and I'll focus on it in my newsletter. So generally going into earnings, how do you adjust for the risk there, maybe going with a smaller position if you want to buy before earnings or up?

00;54;26;28 - 00;54;47;11
Unknown
I had a strict rule, especially when I was a market maker on the floor. ICE was one of the stocks I was the market maker for. I would be flat going into earnings every single time. I do not trade stocks for earnings if I'm a long term shareholder, I or Google. I'm not even going to care about earnings because the earnings aren't going to change my mind unless the trend has a major change.

00;54;47;14 - 00;55;07;06
Unknown
So if I believe it's a long term holding, then I don't worry about earnings. I'm not trading it for earnings. If I want to take a little bit more risk on like in a DocuSign, I'm not recommending anyone do this, but if you do, the parameters are there and if it fails, get out. Do not make this a long term investment.

00;55;07;10 - 00;55;28;04
Unknown
This is a trade opportunity, so I wouldn't recommend buying it. It's to earnings. I will chase a gap. I will. I love gaps. I mean, if you want to go, we can do a whole special on trading gaps. Those things are important to me. But right now, seeing that something has changed, it's got my interest and it's worth talking about, it's worth focusing on.

00;55;28;09 - 00;55;57;28
Unknown
And if someone wants to take a shot, No, the risk reward, I think the setup is there that the risk outweighs the reward. Outweighs the risk in this case. Yeah. And that's that's such a key point. You brought up risk management as being rule number one, two and three. And if you can keep that small, you know, and again, you've got a lot of room to potentially recover, you can be wrong a lot of times if you keep that, you know, if you keep your risk small and your reward potential large.

00;55;57;28 - 00;56;17;00
Unknown
So, I mean, that seems like an easy I'm wrong all the time, but you want to keep things simple. This goes back to Alan Schall level two S.A.T. class I took in 1993, for thing, and I don't know where he stole this from, but I credit Alan, the late Alan Shore, for things happen when you get into a trade as a trader.

00;56;17;00 - 00;56;30;06
Unknown
And I've seen them all. We've all seen them all. You have a small gain and a small loss. These are normal things. You can have a big gain. That's the goal and you have a big loss if you're going to survive in this industry. You got avoid one thing, avoid the big loss. Check your ego at the door.

00;56;30;11 - 00;56;50;27
Unknown
I get this small loss. I'm getting out. Maybe I would have been right. Maybe this could be an investment over time. But avoid the big loss and live the play another day. That will tell every trader, day trader, swing trader, long term trader. If you're putting too much allocation into one asset and you are going to take the big loss, guess what?

00;56;50;29 - 00;57;08;19
Unknown
You're not going to be able to put it anywhere else. So you take that small loss and move on to something else. There are 6000 different asset classes you can train. They keep coming out with new ones every single day. Don't get married to this stock. You sign because the risk reward set up was good and I mistake.

00;57;08;26 - 00;57;30;00
Unknown
Well our cost average into it. Or know your game plan is your game plan and a little loss is going to happen. And yes, it stinks when they do. But if you can leave the behavioral and the ego at the door and you take that little loss, you move on, you can yell and scream at me. If I'm the reason you got into this trade, that's fine.

00;57;30;02 - 00;57;53;28
Unknown
Be like I'm home and you know everything. You know everything. You know, you move on to the next idea. There are always ideas out there. That's what's great about the stock market. Yeah, well, hey,

IBD digital | Ticker Tape Teachings: What This Trader Learned From Decades At The NYSE

Here is the link. 

Stocks to watch:

1. United healthcare
2. Stryker

Newsletter - stock underwatch:

1. Docusign - setup for bull market, take your loss and move on, above 200 day moving average
2. Adobe - 

Bank of America CEO: 3 rate cuts this year will bring economy into equilibrium by the end of 2025

Here is the link. 

CNBC's Leslie Picker and Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the state of the economy, strength of the consumer, the Fed's rate path outlook, the impact of Capital One-Discover deal, regional bank turmoil, and more.

Markets are in a state of euphoria but could pull back in the near term, says Lizzie Evans

Here is the link. 

Elizabeth Evans, Managing Partner at Evans May Wealth, discusses the trading day ahead.

The fear of upside has captivated the options market, says RBC's Amy Wu Silverman

Here is the link. 

Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets head of derivatives strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, why she believes the biggest fear for investors currently is the fear of missing out on the markets' momentum higher, what options are saying about equities, and more.

Dis stock | My lesson | learn CAN SLIM system first

 

CRDO stock | One year after IPO

 

TLT | 20 year treasure notes | Interest rate drop

#FedInterestRate #InterestRateDrop #GoBackInterestRate3Percent

TLT - iShare 20 years of treasure notes 

Frank said on March 1, 2024 that TLT will go back to $169 (Aug 7 2020) in a few years, 25% return every year. 

DELL 30% gain | PSTG 20% and 5% gain | March 1 2024 | NETAPP 18% gain

 

Briefing | This week's biggest % gainers/losers

 

This week's biggest % gainers/losers

Briefing.com - 5:48 PM ET

The following are this week's top percentage gainers and losers, categorized by sectors (over $300 mln market cap and 100K average daily volume).

This week's top % gainers Healthcare: CTMX (2.60 +73%), GTHX (3.70 +66.67%), CDXS (4.51 +48.84%), CDNA (12.03 +45.41%), EDIT (10.52 +34.69%), TGTX (17.94 +34.68%), CRBP (34.15 +32.62%), RVNC (7.13 +29.78%), NTRA (89.31 +26.75%), RCM (14 +26.13%)Industrials: TPC (11.86 +30.47%), LXFR (9.9 +28.17%), EAF (1.71 +26.71%)Information Technology: INSG (3.41 +50.88%), DELL (123.74 +36.95%), PSTG (55.3 +36.3%), ARLO (11.83 +35.05%), OKTA (108.28 +30.08%)This week's top % losers Healthcare: IRWD (8.90 -40.98%), MDRX (6.01 -27.33%), INGN (6.94 -24.48%), GRFS (7.01 -23.27%), IART (36.07 -19.36%), PRGO (26.47 -17.68%), SIBN (17.14 -15.44%)Materials: CC (20.60 -30.14%)Industrials: FWRD (31.96 -20.24%)Consumer Discretionary: AAN (7.37 -30.08%), RRGB (7.48 -17.49%), MLCO (7.09 -17.46%)Information Technology: LPSN (1.30 -46.5%), COMM (1.14 -40%)Financials: NYCB (3.53 -21.9%)

This week's top % gainers 

Healthcare: 

• CTMX (2.60 +73%), 
• GTHX (3.70 +66.67%), 
• CDXS (4.51 +48.84%), 
• CDNA (12.03 +45.41%), 
• EDIT (10.52 +34.69%), 
• TGTX (17.94 +34.68%), 
• CRBP (34.15 +32.62%), 
• RVNC (7.13 +29.78%), 
• NTRA (89.31 +26.75%), 
• RCM (14 +26.13%)

Industrials: 

TPC (11.86 +30.47%), 

LXFR (9.9 +28.17%), 

EAF (1.71 +26.71%)

Information Technology: 

• INSG (3.41 +50.88%), 
• DELL (123.74 +36.95%), 
• PSTG (55.3 +36.3%), 
• ARLO (11.83 +35.05%), 
• OKTA (108.28 +30.08%)

This week's top % losers 

Healthcare: 

• IRWD (8.90 -40.98%), 
• MDRX (6.01 -27.33%), 
• INGN (6.94 -24.48%), 
• GRFS (7.01 -23.27%), 
• IART (36.07 -19.36%), 
• PRGO (26.47 -17.68%), 
• SIBN (17.14 -15.44%)

Materials: 

CC (20.60 -30.14%)

Industrials: 

FWRD (31.96 -20.24%)

Consumer Discretionary: 

• AAN (7.37 -30.08%), 
• RRGB (7.48 -17.49%), 
• MLCO (7.09 -17.46%)
• Information Technology: 
• LPSN (1.30 -46.5%), 
• COMM (1.14 -40%)

Financials: 

NYCB (3.53 -21.9%)

Stop loss | Q42023 Earnings date | SABR dip | First 14%, second 25%

#BlackSwan #FooledByRandomness #3hrsLossYearsGain #BlowOut #RandomProcess #SmallCapital #PennyStock #LessonsToLearn #靠运气赚的钱凭实力还给市场 #黑天鹅

#StopLoss #GambleOnEarnings #StopLessSABR #RiskManagement #StopLossEmotions #Emotions #RandomProcess #Russell2000 #HeavyDebt #HighTech #BankruptcyRisk #$18000USDollars #RiskControl 

Stop loss

Feb. 15, 2024

• $4.6 -> $4.1  10%
• $4.1 -> $3.5  14%
• $3.5 -> $2.6  25%
• $4.1 -> $2.6 36.5%
• $4.6 -> $2.6, 56%

• $4.6 -> $4.1  10%
• $4.1 -> $3.5  14%
• $3.5 -> $2.6  25%
• $4.1 -> $2.6 36.5%
• $4.6 -> $2.6, 56%

• $4.6 -> $4.1  10%
• $4.1 -> $3.5  14%
• $3.5 -> $2.6  25%
• $4.1 -> $2.6 36.5%
• $4.6 -> $2.6, 56%

Emotional intelligence - Build tough mindset as an investor, I paid a price of 56% loss, another $20,000 US dollars paper loss. 

Seekingalpha | AMAT | DELL, WDC, NETAPP, PSTG, STX, MU, AMAT, SWKS, HPQ, HPE

Seekingalpha | MU | DELL, WDC, NETAPP, PSTG, STX, MU, AMAT, SWKS, HPQ, HPE

Seekingalpha | STX | DELL, WDC, NETAPP, PSTG, STX, MU, AMAT, SWKS, HPQ, HPE

Seekingalpha | SPTG | DELL, WDC, NETAPP, PSTG, STX, MU, AMAT, SWKS, HPQ, HPE

Seekingalpha | NETAPP | DELL, WDC, NETAPP, PSTG, STX, MU, AMAT, SWKS, HPQ, HPE

Seekingalpha | WDC | DELL, WDC, NETAPP, PSTG, STX, MU, AMAT, SWKS, HPQ, HPE

Seekingalpha | DELL | DELL, WDC, NETAPP, PSTG, STX, MU, AMAT, SWKS, HPQ, HPE

Nike lays off tech leaders as company cuts costs

The $2 billion savings plan will focus on core product innovation and shift energy away from less essential experimentation.

BY 

February 22, 2024

 Nike’s anticipated layoffs of an estimated 1,600 people, or 2 per cent of its workforce, have begun this week, with multiple senior leaders across technology and marketing part of the cuts. These include VPs in technology, innovation and marketing, and senior directors in Nike’s technology innovation office.

The layoffs come on the heels of a dip in share prices for Nike stock — down 13 per cent year-on-year — and slowed revenue growth. In December, it announced a sales increase of 1 per cent, which missed expectations for the second quarter in a row. Nike also decreased its sales outlook for the year, and announced plans to cut $2 billion in costs over a three-year period. External factors such as decreased consumer spending and increased competition from smaller trainer brands are driving many of Nike’s recent struggles, which analysts also attribute to a series of missteps that have led the brand off course.

Layoffs are a faster way to recoup revenue than increasing sales. The significant layoffs in tech and marketing also come after bringing on new CTO Muge Erdirik Dogan (who most recently led Amazon Fashion) and CMO Nicole Hubbard Graham late last year. This week’s round of layoffs will be followed by a second round slated to complete by the end of the fourth quarter, which for Nike is in May. (Distribution centres, Nike Air manufacturers and store employees are not included in the layoffs, according to the company.)

Nike, a long-time leader in sportswear, has also led the charge in digital innovation. In recent years, it has cut wholesale distribution in favour of its own channels, developed a suite of apps, such as the Snkrs app for coveted product drops, invested in high-tech stores and been proactive in Web3, including an early acquisition of Web3 brand Rtfkt and a later development of its own Web3 studio, Nike Virtual Studios (NVS).

In an internal memo that was shared with Vogue Business, CEO John Donahoe said that Nike often wins when it offers innovative products, distinctive storytelling and differentiated marketplace experiences, suggesting that these are areas that need renewed focus. “Speed and end-to-end execution is critical to win. To compete, we must edit, shift and divest less critical work to create greater focus and capacity for what matters most.”

In a statement emailed to Vogue Business regarding the layoffs, a Nike representative said: “Nike’s always at our best when we’re on the offence. The actions that we’re taking put us in the position to rightsize our organisation to get after our biggest growth opportunities as interest in sport, health and wellness have never been stronger. While these changes will impact approximately 2 per cent of our total workforce, we are grateful for the contributions made by all Nike teammates.” (The company declined to comment on specific personnel changes.)

As part of ongoing turbulence for the company as well as the wider industry, which saw Nike pivot back to wholesale partnerships, the brand has also lost a number of athlete relationships — including multiple British football players, Tiger Woods, Simone Biles and Roger Federer — in recent years.

Analysts expect an ongoing recalibration across where Nike invests in innovation; in its September earnings call, executives acknowledged that innovation in its running products had lagged behind. “The innovation needs to sit in product. That’s where the money needs to be pumped in,” says Jessica Ramirez, senior research analyst at Jane Hali & Associates. “The customer always wants to see newness, and that is where Nike has become stale.”

While the tech and innovation team cuts are across the broader organisation, and not limited to NVS, this new strategy raises questions around how digital innovation will be a priority. NVS was founded in January 2022 to oversee the brand’s Web3 and metaverse experiments. It developed “Dotswoosh” (.Swoosh) in November 2022 as a way of creating wealth for participants — and generate ongoing secondary revenue for Nike — by co-creating phygital products using Nike’s library of intellectual property. This was a key success strategy for Web3 trainer startup Rtfkt, which Nike acquired in December 2021.

Since then, NFT hype has waned, cryptocurrency values have decreased and secondhand revenues are no longer a money-making strategy. Towards the end of the NFT sneakerhead craze, Nike sold an estimated $3 million worth of its first Web3 trainers, but given the huge cost of building and developing the NVS business unit, that is not much payout. (For context, Nike’s total 2023 revenue was more than $50 billion.)

Nike has since moved away from NFT collectibles to gaming skins and other in-game assets (some as digital twins, some as digital-only), but this strategy is still nascent. (Because of existing signed contracts, it can take a while for any major strategy changes to develop.) It signed deals with gaming company Electronic Arts and Fortnite-owner Epic Games; after creating a virtual world in Roblox that received mixed reviews, it created an Airphoria experience in Fortnite that directed players to Nike-owned channels.

It’s challenging for any brand at this stage to be considered a winner in Web3. Even though Nike is considered a leader, most players in the Web3 trainer game have pulled back: Adidas, Puma and even Rtfkt have all slowed on drops and announcements. “They thought Web3 would be a revenue-driving machine, but that was a bubble and once that popped, there is no revenue,” says Matt Maher, founder of research and development firm M7 Innovations.

And while the Dotswoosh strategy is smart, Maher says, the initial rollout has been plagued with multiple “weird mishaps”, in his experience, including launching without a Web3-friendly communications channel (such as a Discord server) to answer customer questions, technical hiccups (Maher tried to buy one of the Dotswoosh sneakers but was unable) and complex acquisition mechanics.

That’s not to say that the race is over. The Nike Web3 innovation strategy is still “directionally correct”, Maher says. Rtfkt still enables Nike to test and learn in a safe way, and the Dotswoosh strategy keeps fans within the Nike ecosystem while standing to provide access to valuable zero-party data.

For now, industry experts expect more of a focus on immediate revenue gains over long-shot bets — both at Nike and across the tech and fashion industries; Amazon, Maher points out, shuttered its Amazon Go stores as part of cost-cutting measures, and Meta has also recently conducted layoffs in an attempt to cut costs. A similar story is playing out at Nike. “Dotswoosh might help in five or 10 years, but [right] now the focus is on what drives revenue.”

Motley fool | Monthly recommendation