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英伟达 (代码:NVDA)预计将于2月26日公布业绩。在第四财季，预计公司收入增长72.1%至380亿美元，毛利率为73.5%。这预计将使每股收益增长63.5%，即0.84美元。然而，符合预期的季度业绩将是一个巨大的失望，特别是考虑到投资者知道该公司自2023年5月以来已连续七个季度报告好于预期的业绩。
在某些方面，英伟达报告什么可能并不重要。即使公司交付强劲的季度业绩，期权持仓状况仍可能导致财报后的抛售压力，因为做市商解除对冲，迫使价格向下运动。我们在过去见过这种情况，比如在8月和11月季度。
虽然标普500指数在历史高点附近徘徊，Cboe波动率指数也远低于其五年平均水平，但在表面之下，一幅更令人怀疑的图景正在形成——上周五出现的两个月来最大的美股抛售已经证明了这一点，一些交易员正在为动荡做准备。
上周，未平仓的VIX看涨期权与看跌期权的比率接近2023年9月以来的最高水平，其中上周二有超过100万份看涨期权易手。
由于英伟达公司（NVDA）本周三将发布的财报可能成为一系列事件旋风中的第一个，有可能使市场陷入混乱，投资者开始加大对波动性将卷土重来的押注。
虽然美国总统特朗普重返白宫和他的关税言论迄今为止几乎没有吓到交易员，但从野村的查理-麦克利戈特（Charlie McElligott）到高盛的斯科特-鲁布纳（Scott Rubner），警告的呼声普遍越来越高。
期权平台SpotGamma的创始人布伦特-科丘巴（Brent Kochuba）说：“英伟达看起来肯定会推动整个股票市场。”
更广泛地说，“未来几周有很多催化剂会导致波动率飙升，包括关税和美国政府关门的最后期限，”他补充说，对冲活动在上周二有所回升，有人在两笔大宗交易中买入了25万份VIX看涨期权。
对冲需求增加
由于对人工智能行业的乐观预期，英伟达的股价已从2023年10月的低点上涨了两倍多，成为价值3.3万亿美元的巨无霸。这一涨势使其成为标普500指数的第二大成分股，从而使整个市场更容易受到该股波动的影响。
自去年11月份发布上一份财报以来，英伟达的股票交易一直波澜不惊，1月份中国人工智能初创公司DeepSeek引发的股价暴跌更是使其雪上加霜。截至上周五，期权交易员对英伟达财报发布后的股价波幅定价为7.7%，而过去八份季报发布后的平均涨跌幅为9.2%。标普500指数在这些日子里平均波动了0.8%，超过了过去两年平均每天0.6%的波动幅度。
“英伟达的财报和任何后续波动肯定会影响更广泛的波动，”加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBCCapital
Markets）衍生品策略主管Amy
Wu Silverman说。“英伟达财报的任何涨跌意外都会对人工智能和人工智能相关公司产生连锁反应。”
这家芯片巨头是本财报季的迟到者，大多数标普500指数公司都已经公布了业绩。财报的发布通常会使股票更多地随自身的走势而非宏观经济的头条新闻而变动，这使得标普500指数中50大公司的已实现相关性指标接近0，离历史最低水平仅一步之遥。读数为1意味着股票走势同步。
在那期间，对冲基金倾向于押注市场平静：根据商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的最新数据，截至2月18日，对冲基金的VIX期货净空仓接近7个月以来的最高水平。上一次出现如此低的读数时，爆发了去年8月初的波动性冲击。
除了英伟达之外，未来几周还有一系列催化剂可能会刺激市场再次波动。特朗普暂停对加拿大和墨西哥征收新关税的措施将于3月4日到期。三天后，投资者将看到对美国就业数据的最新解读，而3月14日是达成协议避免美国政府关门的最后期限。
Susquehanna国际集团的衍生品策略联席主管Chris
Murphy说：“如果真正有影响力的关税消息是全面负面的，股市开始同步或高度相关地波动，那么我们肯定会看到波动性飙升。”
文章来源: 美国中文网 于
川普政府周二加大了对非法移民的打击力度，威胁称，如果一些人没有按要求在政府登记注册，将对其处以包括监禁和罚款在内的刑事处罚。
How to Know When to Purchase a Stock Pullback
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Chapter 1 – Canadian Period. Chapter 2 – Entering Wall Street. Chapter 3 – My First Crisis. Chapter 4 – Developing the Box Theory. Chapter 5 – Cables Round the World. Chapter 6 – During the Baby-Bear Market. Chapter 7 – The Theory Starts to Work. Chapter 8 – My First Half-Million. Chapter 9 – My Second Crisis. Chapter 10 – Two Million Dollars. Appendix – Interview With Time Magazine
Chapter 1 – The Casino Chapter. 2 – The Dealers. Chapter 3 – The Croupiers. Chapter 4 – The Touts. Chapter 5 – Personal Protection : Hedging My Bets. Chapter 6 – Playing in the Casino – My Buying Game. Chapter 7 – Playing in the Casino – My Selling Game. Chapter 8 – Figuring My Winnings Appendix – Index of Stocks.
Bernard Mannes Baruch[nb 1] (August 19, 1870 – June 20, 1965) was an American financier and statesman.
After amassing a fortune on the New York Stock Exchange, he impressed President Woodrow Wilson by managing the nation's economic mobilization in World War I as chairman of the War Industries Board. He advised Wilson during the Paris Peace Conference. He made another fortune in the postwar bull market, but foresaw the Wall Street crash and sold out well in advance.
In World War II, he became a close advisor to President Franklin D. Roosevelt on the role of industry in war supply, and he was credited with greatly shortening the production time for tanks and aircraft. Later he helped to develop rehabilitation programs for injured servicemen. In 1946, he was the United States representative to the United Nations Atomic Energy Commission, though his Baruch Plan for international control of atomic energy was rejected by the Soviet Union.
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In the book, Hedge Fund Market Wizards: How Winning Traders Win, Tom Claugus of GMT Capital discusses what he calls his "Evil Knievel" stock screener. Tom defines this screener as companies trading at five times or more of book value and losing money. Tom says these companies are "trying to jump the Grand Canyon and probably are not going to make it." Tom's fund is a long/short equity fund with a 25-plus year record of 20% annual returns. The Evil Knievel screener is the tool Tom uses to begin his search for short trades, especially when the market reaches the upper limit of a Bollinger Band. Claugus talks about getting shorter as the market reaches the top of the band and selecting a few companies from his Evil Knievel screener is a go-to move. During the first week of November 2015, the S&P 500 touched the upper band and dropped significantly over the next two weeks. After another month or so of flat to slightly down movements, the market began its significant decline on December 30th. The market finished an approximate 10% decline at the bottom on February 11th, but a number of companies on this list had 30% plus drops.
Whether short selling is part of your investment strategy or not, companies showing up on this list need to have a very compelling story to justify their stock price. Additionally, anything other than a bull market is going to be a big problem for most of the companies on this list.
I decided to begin monitoring this list for my own trading purposes. I first designed my screener to include stocks traded in the United States, market cap of $2 billion or more, losing money and trading over five times book value. If you lowered the market capitalization to $300 million or more, there would be 98 companies on the list. That's a few more than I have time to analyze.
As of March 25, 2016, there are 29 companies that meet my Evil Knievel screener.
Agenda
A block trade is a large securities transaction that can involve buying or selling a large number of shares or bonds. Block trades are often used by institutional investors to avoid impacting market prices.
