Monday, July 7, 2025

马丁策略(亏损加仓)到底怎么用?

 

马丁策略(亏损加仓)到底怎么用?【量化跟单】

马丁,可以翻译为:亏损加仓策略。

该策略至少有两大优势:

A.每天都能赚钱,具有极高的成功率。

B.亏损再加仓,符合人性。

这个策略是法国人马丁格尔发明的,并用于赌博的,至今已有两百年历史,虽然该策略让无数玩家爆仓终局,但高风险高收益的特性,仍然让无数交易者坚定拥护马丁策略,并试图保留高收益的优势而避开高风险。

今天,我们聊聊如何保留马丁的高收益特性?又如何避开马丁的高风险问题


我们从5个方面着手:

A.品种
B.参数

C.下单模式

D.风控

E.策略叠加

A.品种。没波动不行、波动大容易走单边也不行,既有波动,又经常震荡的品种,可能只有黄金了,目前我们仅做黄金。

B.参数。加仓间距和加仓倍率直接决定了你能赚多少钱,你什么时候爆仓。所以必须选择一个合理的参数范围,比如参考ATR波动率,可以选择日波幅的20-50%区间。

C.下单模式。任何下单条件的限制都是在高估自己对行情的预测能力,实际上没有人能预测行情,哪怕一分一秒,所以放弃任何幻想,直接多、空双向下单,至少我们是这样做的。

D.风控。如果你有1万美金,那么拿出10%本金(1000美金)放在一个单独的账户里来做交易,这样即便爆仓了,也就是总资产亏损10%,这1000美金就不要做风控了,毕竟咱们玩的是高风险高收益的项目,如果你限制了风险,也就等于限制了收益。

E.策略叠加。因为这个单独的账户是做逆势,同时可以叠加一套顺势策略,并且交易同一个品种。这样做有三个好处:充分利用保证金、对冲逆势风险、抓住市场的更多机会。

基于上述5个方面,我们开发的【纯马丁】量化交易系统,允许用户跟单交易,建议用户投入本金10%的资金量来跟随该策略(500美金起)

盈利100%之后,建议用户出本金,用利润来进行交易。

【纯马丁】服务模式:跟单模式

汇飞量化:跟着趋势去冒险...



作者:汇飞量化
链接:https://xueqiu.com/5065860170/223672529
来源:雪球
著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。
风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。

纽约时报:中国为何没有批评特朗普的"大而美"法案

 

纽约时报:中国为何没有批评特朗普的"大而美"法案

文章来源:  于  - 新闻取自各大新闻媒体,新闻内容并不代表本网立场!
美国众议院通过了一项涵盖范围广泛的法案,旨在延长减税政策并削减社会保障项目。国会预算办公室报告称,这项措施将导致美国国债在未来十年内增加至少3.4万亿美元。

作为过去20年美国债务的最大持有国之一,中国从不回避对美国财政行为的批评。

就像父母训斥孩子透支信用卡一样,中国在2013年美国债务上限僵局期间向华盛顿施压,要求其保护中国资产;2008年全球金融危机后,中国更是直指美国人的挥霍无度是罪魁祸首。

但当美国国会议员就一项由特朗普总统支持、预计到2034年将使联邦债务激增逾3万亿美元的庞大国内法案进行辩论并最终通过时,中国却基本上不置一词——尽管该法案可能对中国持有的美国资产构成长期风险。

麻省理工学院的经济学家黄亚生表示,中国对持有美债的主要担忧长期以来一直集中在美元的价值,以及美国是否会违约这两个层面。

“这两个担忧如今都更加现实,”他说。“美元持续贬值已经拖累中国持债价值。至于另一个担忧,我个人不信任本届政府会恪守法治原则与债务义务。”

中国官方媒体在报道国会辩论时强调了该法案的争议性,以及美国民主制度在体现民意方面似乎失效。报道将辩论描述为一场“政治马戏”,中国的评论人士则称投票突显了美国“日益加剧的两极分化”。

但中国官员尚未公开批评特朗普政府,沉默背后可能存在其他考量。

避免贸易战是优先事项

在双方贸易战的脆弱休战状态下,中国可能认为没有必要通过公开批评该法案来激怒特朗普,此前双方曾互征高额关税。

双方已同意取消部分对抗性措施,并继续朝达成协议努力。双方甚至可能正在为特朗普与中国最高领导人习近平的会晤创造条件。

北京正试图重振经济增长,难以承受一场旷日持久的贸易战。相比之下,国债持有问题并不是当务之急。更紧迫的是关税问题,以及特朗普政府试图说服其他国家限制对华贸易的努力。

“中国仍在努力维持与美国之间脆弱的贸易停火,”研究公司Trivium的分析师乔·马祖尔表示。“批评特朗普的标志性立法可能会激怒他,破坏近期达成的外交共识。”

为什么要阻止敌人犯错呢?

从中国的角度来看,该法案非但不会推动美国经济增长,还可能把华盛顿推向财政悬崖,削弱其与北京竞争的能力。

“特朗普成功的几率充其量也只能说是不确定,”上海的国际关系学者沈丁立表示。他还表示,该法案通过削弱美国实力,“可能会间接帮助中国再次强大”。

美国的危机与混乱正好印证了习近平对当前世界局势的核心判断——东升西降。中国强调特朗普政府疏远美国盟友和伙伴,并无视全球规范。

在社交媒体上,一个热门标签写道:“大而美法案将让1700万人失去医保”。网民们也为埃隆·马斯克的言论欢呼,他称该法案“疯狂”。

相比之下,中国分析人士表示,中国提高债务水平部分是用于建设基础设施和向发展中国家贷款——这些支出旨在扩大中国的影响力。

中国同样也在应对不断增长的债务问题,这主要来自地方政府、融资平台以及房地产开发商的借贷。

北京大学的经济学家姚洋对中国是否会因特朗普的法案带来的混乱而受益表示怀疑。他表示,只要美国仍是世界上最大的消费市场,就可以继续借贷多年。

“美国的金融霸主地位也不是随意就可以被替代的。那连带的美元的霸主地位,也不是随意可以替代掉,”他说。

中国受美国债务的影响较小

北京长期诟病华盛顿滥发货币满足国内需求,却无视美元贬值,以及因此带来的海外持有美债资产的缩水。

但中国也在逐步减持美债——从十多年前1.3万亿美元的峰值降至目前的约7500亿美元,转而投资于黄金等其他资产。

中国也致力于削弱其所谓的“美元霸权”,即美元作为世界主要贸易货币的地位。

位于北京的全球化智库理事长王辉耀表示,美元的这一地位加剧了世界对美国消费者的依赖,使得中国这样的主要出口国在面对关税威胁时”更为被动”。

“美国正在利用美元和巨额赤字融资来维持其全球霸权,”他说。

Trading sardines

 "Trading sardines celebrates grit and resilience in the financial markets. It is a hilarious, honest, and poignant account of the evolution of a professional trader over nearly four decades. ... Google Books

Originally published: 2018

Saturday, July 5, 2025

VAN THARP Trade your way to financial freedom

 VAN THARP Trade your way to financial freedom

Dr Van Tharp (Featured in market wizards) looks at stock trading from a probabilistic perspective, discussing the expectancy value measured in multiples of R and highlighting the importance of position sizing. Dr Tharp says most traders are looking for the holy grail of stock trading within a particular setup, when in reality the way to trade your way to financial freedom is to look within yourself. Managing your risk through position sizing, using the risk reward ratio and controlling your inner self (trading psychology) are keys to your stock trading success. The expectancy value should also be aligned to opportunity, expectancy without opportunity could lead to minimal profits.

VAN THARP Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom (Expectancy in Trading & Position Sizing)

Here is the link. 

VAN THARP Trade your way to financial freedom Dr Van Tharp (Featured in market wizards) looks at stock trading from a probabilistic perspective, discussing the expectancy value measured in multiples of R and highlighting the importance of position sizing. Dr Tharp says most traders are looking for the holy grail of stock trading within a particular setup, when in reality the way to trade your way to financial freedom is to look within yourself. Managing your risk through position sizing, using the risk reward ratio and controlling your inner self (trading psychology) are keys to your stock trading success. The expectancy value should also be aligned to opportunity, expectancy without opportunity could lead to minimal profits.



"You do not trade the markets. You can only trade your beliefs about the markets." | Dr. Van Tharp

 "You do not trade the markets. You can only trade your beliefs about the markets."

His mission; "Transformation through a trading metaphor." He didn't just teach, coach, and train better traders. He helped people live better lives.

Van Tharp’s books were the first ones I picked up when I got seriously interested in trading. The first note I made on his work is dated August 2012 and I still read something from him almost every day. His books introduced me to concepts such as:

  • R multiples

  • System Quality Number

  • Percent-risk position sizing

  • The 10 tasks of trading

  • Tharp think (which I have included below)

and so much more.

The principles he taught have changed my life in so many other, better ways.

Van founded and ran the very successful Van Tharp Institute. Coaching classes and seminars there are always in high demand and come with a substantial price tag. But Van was incredibly generous with his time and knowledge by offering frequent online workshops, email newsletters, interviews, and articles for free. I never attended any of the workshops at the Van Tharp Institute in Cary, NC. But I did participate in many online seminars and I've read (and re-read) many of his books.

His book "Trading Beyond the Matrix: The Red Pill for Traders and Investors" is available for free. You only pay for shipping.

https://www.vantharp.com/trading-beyond-the-matrix-the-red-pill-for-traders-and-investors-soft-cover

Van has been and will continue to be one of the top teachers for beginning traders and "Super Traders" alike.

Rest easy Dr. Tharp. Thank you for all that you have done.

Tharp Think Principles

1. Successful trading can be modeled and taught to other people.

2. Learning to trade well requires as much work/education as any other profession

3. You need to find a trading system that fits you.

4. In order to accomplish that, you must know yourself:

a. Your values

b. Your strengths

c. Your weaknesses

d. Your parts (see Section II)

e. Significant beliefs (spiritual, self, market, system)

f. Trading edges

g. Trading

5. You can only trade your beliefs about the markets, not the markets themselves. Thus, you should know and understand your beliefs and whether or not they are useful.

6. System development is 100 percent (1) beliefs, (2) mental states, and (3) mental strategies. Thus, it is 100 percent psychology.

7. You must know your personal criteria for being able to trade a system with confidence. What do you mean when you say that we trade our beliefs? Knowing your reward-to-risk in a trade. It should always be 3 to 1 or better at the beginning of a trade and at least 1 to 1 toward the end

8. A mistake means not following your rules. If you don’t have rules, everything you do is a mistake. It is much better to trade a lower-scoring SQN system that fits you than a higher-scoring SQN system that doesn’t fit you.

9. You are responsible for everything that happens to you. When you understand this, you can correct your mistakes. We call this respond-ability.

10. Repeating the same mistake over and over again is self-sabotage. 12. A trader who makes one mistake in 10 trades is 90 percent efficient; that 10 percent drop in efficiency could be enough to make him/her a losing trader

11. Fifty percent of system development is thinking through and clearly defining a set of written objectives. Those objectives should address your desired gain, your maximum acceptable drawdown, and the relative importance of each.

12. You need to design core objectives that fit you.

13. There are potentially as many objectives as there are traders.

14. You meet your objectives through position sizing strategies.

15. The overwhelming majority of your performance is due to your position sizing strategy and your efficiency as a trader.

16. You must know your mission/purpose in life and incorporate that into your trading.

17. You need to know your financial freedom number (passive income per month less monthly expenses). When it’s positive, you are financially free.

18. Never open a position without knowing the initial risk.

19. Define your profits and losses as a multiple of your initial risk (R-multiples).

20. Limit your losses to 1R or less.

21. Make sure your profits on average are bigger than 1R.

22. Never take a trade unless the reward-to-risk ratio of that trade is at least 2:1 and perhaps even 3:1.

23. Your trading system is a distribution of R-multiples

24. When you understand #6, you should be able to hear/see a description of a system and know the kind of R-multiple distribution it would generate.

25. The mean of that distribution is the expectancy, and it tells you what you’ll make on the average trade. It should be a positive number.

26. The mean, standard deviation, and the number of trades determine the SQN score for your system.

27. Your SQN score tells you how easy it will be to meet your objectives using position sizing strategies. Other than that, your system has nothing to do with meeting your objectives.

28. Systems are usually named after their setups, which are usually based on some attempt to predict future prices. Prediction has nothing to do with trading well.

29. System performance has to do with controlling risk and managing the position through your exits. You are not predicting what the market will do, you are making a reasonable estimate that your risk-to-reward ratio is at least 2 to 1. If that’s the case and you’re right at least 50 percent of the time, then you’ll have a positive expectancy system.

30. There are at least six different market types. You should understand how your system will perform in each of them.

a. Bull volatile

b. Bull quiet

c. Sideways volatile

d. Sideways quiet

e. Bear quiet (almost doesn’t exist)

f. Bear volatile

31. It’s easy to design a Holy Grail system (one with a high System Quality Number score) for any one market type listed above.

32. It’s insane to expect that trading system to work in all market types.

33. The biggest mistake people make is to try to design one system to fit all markets.

34. You should only trade your system in the market type for which it was designed.

35. Good traders understand the big picture, know how to measure it, and become aware when the situation changes

36. Media and academia know none of this and will not teach it to you.

37. For each market type, you need a large sample size to estimate what the population is for that system.

38. You also need to do Monte Carlo simulations with your system’s R-multiples to get a better idea of what to expect in the future. This will work if the sample you draw from is similar to the population.

This list was written by Dr. Van Tharp and has been collected from a note I made in June 2013. There have been some revisions and adjustments to this list over the years. Other documents may show slight differences. But the foundation is the same.