Thursday, July 10, 2025

趋势交易的经典玩法–123与2B法则 | Tradingview 123 Trend Continuation Pattern

Here is the article. 

趋势交易是典型的中短线交易方法。趋势交易的核心理念就一句话:“顺势而为”。


势就是方向,顺势而为就是跟随市场价格变化的方向做交易。

具体说就是:“涨势做多,跌势做空,震荡市做区间交易”。

趋势交易的核心原则就一条:“截断亏损,让利润奔跑!”

除了核心理念和交易原则外,为便于实战操作,趋势交易还有经典战法–123看趋势,2B找买卖点。

1、什么是趋势?

趋势是市场价格变动发展的方向。

它由市场价格运动的波峰和波谷依次上升或下降所构成的。

典型的是市场价格趋势主要有三种:

(1)上升趋势:它是由一系列依次上升的峰和谷组成的价格总体越走越高的趋势;

(2)下降趋势:它是由一系列依次下降的峰和谷组成的价格总体越走越低的趋势。

(3)震荡趋势:它是由一系列横向伸展的峰和谷组成的价格总体水平发展的趋势。


以上证综指走势图为例,我们给出它的上涨趋势、下跌趋势与震荡趋势在日k线图中对应的时间周期,如下图所示。





根据分析趋势使用的时间周期不同,价格趋势通常有三种表现:

(1)主要趋势(长期趋势)。它对应趋势的大方向,一般持续时间比较长。

(2)次要趋势(中期趋势)。它是指在主要趋势的运行过程中进行的调整。

(3)短暂趋势(短期趋势)。它是指在次级趋势中的短期趋势发展。

应该说明的是,这里的长期、中期、短期,因人而异,因品种而异,并没有固定的对应时间。

对基金分析而言,短期通常对应日线级别,中期通常对应周线级别,长期通常对应月线级别。

主要趋势与次要趋势之间相互依存,互为因果。

大规模的趋势是由很多个小规模的趋势组成;小规模的趋势往往又孕育着大规模的趋势。

同一个方向的趋势,演变发展的过程中经常出现相反方向的趋势夹杂其中;而一个反方向的趋势往往又孕育着另一个趋势方向的诞生。如下图所示。





2、如何绘制趋势线?

技术派通常会通过绘制趋势线来揭示价格变化趋势。

趋势线就是用来描绘市场发展趋势的直线。

常见的趋势线主要有两类:即上升趋势线(支撑线)、下降趋势线(压力线)。

上涨看支撑,下跌看压力。

上升趋势线即支撑线。它是选择两个或多个有决定意义的低点连线。

下降趋势线即压力线:它是选择两个或多个有决定意义的高点连线。

典型的支撑线和压力线如下图所示。





趋势线被价格高低点触及的次数越多,该趋势线越具有实际意义;


趋势线维持的时间越长,其支撑或阻力作用越明显;


趋势线过平或过陡,其支撑或阻力作用都不太明显。

3、趋势线交易的123法则与2B反转规则

(1)123交易法则

趋势线交易的123法则包括三条规则:


一是上升或下降趋势线被价格向相反方向突破;


二是上升趋势中,价格不再创新高,或下降趋势中,价格不再创新低。


三是在下降趋势中,价格向上穿越先前的短期反弹高点;或在上升趋势中,价格向下穿越先前的短期回档低点。


以上三条都是判断趋势反转的规则。投资者可据此判断趋势发生反转,及时进行建仓或清仓操作。

下面以上升趋势逆转为例,给出趋势线交易的123交易法则的用处如下图所示。







上升趋势发生逆转,正是清仓离场的关键交易点。

下降趋势与此正好相反。下降趋势发生逆转,正是进场建仓的关键交易点。

对此各位可自行补上,在此不做赘述。

(2)2B规则

2B规则也是研判趋势发生逆转的常用规则。它包括两条规则:

一是在上升趋势中,如果价格已经创新高而未能持续上升,稍后又跌破先前的高点,则趋势很可能会发生反转。

二是在下降趋势中,如果价格已经创新低而未能持续下跌,稍后又涨破先前的低点,则趋势很可能会发生反转。


这也是两种判断趋势反转的规则。

2B规则实例如下图所示。






趋势交易讲究顺势而为,在实际使用中,如何准确判断趋势逆转点,从而做出建仓或清仓的决策对投资者意义重大。


无论123交易法则也好,2B规则也好,都是用来判断趋势逆转点用的。对趋势交易感兴趣的伙伴,不妨自己去试试哦。

应该说明的是,趋势交易是基于市场价格走势变化发展的交易系统。因为短期价格走势具有很强的随机性和不可预测性,因此,基于趋势交易确定的买卖点,具有一定的失败概率。希望小伙伴使用时要注意这一点哦!


Double Top/Bottom [AlgoAlpha] | Tradingview.com

 Introducing the Double Top/Bottom Indicator by AlgoAlpha, a powerful tool designed to identify key reversal patterns in the market with precision. This indicator meticulously detects double tops and double bottoms, helping traders recognize potential trend reversals and make informed trading decisions.


Key Features:
  • 🔍 Pattern Detection: Accurately identifies double top and double bottom formations based on customizable time horizons.
  • 🎨 Customizable Appearance: Choose your preferred colors for bullish and bearish trends to match your trading style.
  • 📊 Signal Labels: Option to display only the second pivot of the double top/bottom for a cleaner chart view.
  • 🔧 Flexible Settings: Adjust the time horizon to control the look-back period, allowing for detection of both short-term and long-term patterns.
  • 📈 Visual Enhancements: Draws trend lines and fills between pivotal points to visually highlight potential reversal zones.
  • 🔔 Alerts: Set up alerts for potential double top and double bottom formations to stay informed of key market movements.


How to Use the Double Top/Bottom Indicator:

🛠 Add the Indicator: Simply add the Double Top/Bottom Indicator to your TradingView chart from your favorites. Customize the time horizon and appearance settings to fit your trading preferences.

Tradingview.com | Trend Continuation Pattern

Here is the article. 


CRWV stock | Downgrade

CoreWeave stock rating downgraded to Hold by Needham on valuation concerns

Published 07/10/2025, 09:01 AM

 Investing.com - Needham downgraded CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) from Buy to Hold on Thursday, citing valuation concerns despite the strategic benefits of the company’s announced CORZ acquisition. The company, currently valued at $73.46 billion, has seen its stock surge 282.62% over the past six months. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears to be trading above its Fair Value.

The research firm believes the CORZ acquisition is a strategic fit for CoreWeave and would unlock an estimated 150-200MW of additional IT capacity for HPC/AI workloads. These sites would likely require higher capital expenditure than existing retrofits, potentially costing $9-10 million per MW versus the prior guidance of $5-8 million per MW for the previous 590MW with CORZ. InvestingPro data shows the company is currently operating at a loss, with a diluted EPS of -$5.19 over the last twelve months.

Needham highlighted several benefits of the transaction, including CoreWeave’s ability to own high-quality underlying infrastructure that can support inference workloads, lower its cost of capital through data center-backed ABS financing, save $500 million annually on operating expenses, and bring data center operations teams in-house.

The firm updated its 2026 and 2027 estimates to reflect adjustments related to the transaction. Despite the strategic benefits, Needham cited CoreWeave’s current valuation of 41 times its 2026 EBIT estimate as the primary reason for the downgrade.

Needham analyst Mike Cikos stated, "We believe valuation is full," prompting the downgrade to Hold despite the positive aspects of the CORZ acquisition.

In other recent news, CoreWeave announced its acquisition of Core Scientific in a transaction valued at approximately $9 billion. This all-stock deal is expected to bring significant cost savings, with the elimination of $10 billion in lease overhead over 12 years and projected annual run rate savings of $500 million by the end of 2027. The acquisition will expand CoreWeave’s data center footprint, giving it control of approximately 1.3 gigawatts of gross power. Analysts have responded to the acquisition with mixed ratings: Mizuho downgraded CoreWeave from Outperform to Neutral, raising the price target to $150, citing a balanced risk/reward profile despite the deal’s potential benefits. Stifel also downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold, while increasing the price target to $115, acknowledging potential value creation but expressing concerns over short-term integration challenges. Macquarie maintained a Neutral rating with a $65 price target, highlighting projected net annual savings and potential earnings accretion from the deal. Additionally, CoreWeave has become the first cloud provider to offer NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) RTX PRO 6000 instances, boasting faster AI and graphics performance. The company continues to expand its NVIDIA infrastructure offerings, reinforcing its position in the AI and graphics technology sector.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

FICO stock | Hold long term for $1900/ share

D chart | Technical analysis 

One share - FICO $1602/ share 


Last time rebound from $1520 to $1900

Good catalysts:
  1. Stock buybacks
  2. Market uptrend
The resistance level - $1480/ share

Market update

https://juliachencoding.blogspot.com/2025/07/fico-stock-18-dip-on-july-9-2025.html



EXPE stock | D chart | Breakout - BOS | Entry point 10 shares purchased on July 10 2025

 D chart - Breakout - Neckline 

Purchase 10 shares x 184/ share 



Study material 

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/identifying-head-and-shoulders-patterns-stock-charts




Meta stock | Base finder indicator | Short Long - BOS signals | D chart

 D chart - Easy to find entry point around $660 - Base handle 



Identifying Head-and-Shoulders Patterns in Stock Charts

 Technical Analysis

Identifying Head-and-Shoulders Patterns in Stock Charts

Identifying so-called head-and-shoulders patterns can be tricky.
June 18, 2024 • Beginner

Look at any intraday stock chart and you're bound to see head-and-shoulders patterns—a central peak flanked by two smaller peaks—popping out all over the place.

These triple-peaked chart patterns can be useful indicators of a major trend reversal, but they're also among the easiest to misread. Indeed, many investors have paid a steep price for placing a trade without waiting for signals confirming the pattern.

What to look for

To detect a true head-and-shoulders trend reversal, it helps to understand how they're created:

  1. The left shoulder forms when investors pushing a stock higher temporarily lose enthusiasm.
  2. The head forms when enthusiasm peaks and then declines to a point at or near the stock's previous low.
  3. The right shoulder forms as the stock price rallies once again but fails to reach its previous high before falling again.
  4. A fourth component—the neckline—is formed by drawing a line underneath the troughs established just before and just after the head. When the stock's price dips below this trend line, it's usually a strong indication that the pattern has broken, and it may be time to sell a position.

Note that inverse head-and-shoulders patterns—which are just the reverse, with the head and shoulders forming valleys instead of peaks—can also offer useful trading signals, but more on those below.

Confirming signals

Even when the stock price breaches the neckline, it doesn't necessarily mean it's a lock to continue in that direction. To help confirm the trend, two additional factors are worth considering:

  1. Volume: The number of shares trading is one indication of the strength behind a price move. With a classic head-and-shoulders pattern (chart above), you'll typically see trading volume start to lessen as the price moves higher toward the head and then again when it rebounds to form the right shoulder, indicating waning investor enthusiasm. A spike in volume when the price moves below the neckline suggests selling pressure will remain intense. If neither of these volume signals is in play, the decline may be short-lived, though there are no guarantees.
  2. Time frame: Trend reversals require strong trends leading into them. One common rule is that the uptrend heading into the pattern should be at least twice as long as the distance between the shoulders. This makes it more likely that any reversal of the trend will be significant enough to trade, and that rule applies whether looking at an intraday opportunity or a lengthier one.

Setting stops

Now that you know what to look for, how do you trade it? By using some of the same risk-management tools that are part of your regular trading plan.

Stop orders, in particular, can be useful for head-and-shoulders opportunities, both for limiting your losses from downward price moves if you own the stock and for initiating a position in an inverse head and shoulders when the stock breaks higher through the neckline. However, be aware that there is no guarantee a stop order will be executed at or near the stop price. (For profit taking, consider placing limit orders at a predetermined target price.)

If you already own a stock and believe a traditional head-and-shoulders pattern may be developing, identify the potential neckline when the stock is forming the right shoulder and consider setting a sell-stop price just below it. For instance, if the stock retreated to $35, rebounded to a new high of $37, and then retreated back to $35 before climbing back up, one might set a sell-stop price just under the possible new support level of $35.

If you're looking to add a position, the formation of an inverse head and shoulders, with a stock price breaking above the neckline, often indicates a bearish trend has ended and the stock is poised for higher highs. In such cases, one might set a buy-stop price just above the neckline. For example, if the stock rebounds to $35, retreats to a new low of $33, and then climbs back up to $35 again before declining, consider setting a buy-stop order just above perceived resistance at $35.

Measure twice, sell once

An interesting feature of inverse head-and-shoulders patterns is that they can be used to estimate a profit target after the pattern is complete (chart below). To determine the target spread:

  1. Measure the vertical distance from the head to the neckline.
  2. Find the breakout point—where the price first breaks the neckline after the right shoulder forms—and add that distance to the breakout price.

Target practice

Inverse head-and-shoulders patterns can help traders identify profit targets.


Some technical analysts believe this formula can give a good sense for how far the price could climb based on the size of the pattern and where a trader might consider setting a limit-sell price.

Patience is key

In my experience, those new to technical analysis tend to see head-and-shoulders patterns everywhere. That's why taking the time to confirm signals, such as volume and time frame of the preceding trends, is usually worth it. After a while, it'll get easier to separate the heads and shoulders from the head fakes.


Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Book | Introduction | 《实现财务自由:股票交易精髓》

《高瓴资本的投资思想和持仓股研究》

 对于高瓴资本的投资策略、股票池、投资思想等等,我写过一些列的研究文章,星球上面放了一篇《高瓴资本的投资思想和持仓股研究》给大家了解下高瓴资本,大家可以时刻关注这家公司的持仓和选股动态,把它当做自己的老师,在新手期实盘开始时,参考权威机构的操作。

不能保证你快速赚到钱,但是一定保证你大概率不会亏太多,而且随着时间的复利,可能还会取得不错的收益。
同时,在这段时间,你自己又学习很多知识和积累了很多经验,有了投资成长,这样会助力你在下一个进阶路上走得更远。