Monday, July 14, 2025

Studies in Stock Speculation (Volume 1 and 2)

Here is the article.  

Studies in Stock Speculation (Volume I & II) Describes Ten Cardinal Principles of Trading and Supplemental Discussions of General Interest to Traders and Investors.

Introductions Volume I:

This Magazine of Wall Street classic still fits today’s investors and traders. “Studies in Stock Speculation” undertakes to tell the reader how one can know what stocks to buy and when to buy them. This does not mean that you are given fixed rules which stop you from thinking. On the contrary, the how to part of investing always requires independent judgment and thinking ability. The cultivation of judgment is our purpose. The reader who digests the numerous instructive points in these chapters will be better equipped for success. Rules are useless if applied arbitrarily or mechanistically, and are worth very little unless related to the proper psychological moments.

The public has always rarely anticipated increased value while it waits for obvious good news. The good news makes you hungry, and in our managed society where good news is turned out as rapidly as possible, the healthy skepticism of profitable principles, over 40 years fresh, is needed. In a former era when stock movements were considered deep mysteries by the average man, this work helped to dissipate prevailing ideas of the market as largely, if not solely, a manipulator’s game. This volume brought a realization of the fact that speculation is an art and science, neither too much one or the other, but certainly not a numbers game or an astrological fancy.

The fine points can be learned by those willing to study, Success means adapting Wall Street Knowledge to one’s individual needs and emotional make-up. Read on and learn for yourself, keeping in mind that though times change people remain the same. And it is people who make markets.

Introductions Volume II:

Volume I of “Studies in Stock Speculation” was so well received, and continues in such constant demand by students of the stock market, that we believe this second volume will be appreciated by those who desire to expand their knowledge of trading and investing principles. Volume II appeals particularly to those who desire to profit by the experiences of others, and who are willing to investigate the science of speculation in an orderly and systematical manner.

Wolf begins with a presentation of the most important factors that govern successful trading in stocks. Ten cardinal rules are given and each one of them is discussed in some detail. The rules and examples are expanded by observations with the use of illustrations and charts. The average speculator obtains a clearer idea of what he is trying to do while receiving many suggestions as to how he may make the most efficient use of his own experiences. Though dealing with the stock market of the 1920’s, the rules and examples are helpful today. These words of wisdom cannot be applied arbitrarily or mechanistically but they can be adapted to the present day market environment since people still make the same mistakes.

Contents:

Volume I:

  • Speculation an Art, Not a Game
  • Manipulation
  • How to Profit When Stocks are Being Marked Up
  • Ways of Detecting the Turning Points
  • Sell Stocks When Support Is Strongest
  • Right Method of Accumulating
  • A Word to the Amateur
  • Short Selling
  • Picking the Peak to Sell
  • The Laws of Speculation
  • Lessons Taught by Speculation
  • Trading as a Business
  • Trading as a Career
  • How to Study the Market
  • Wh~re Stop Loss Orders Fail
  • How to Operate with a Close Stop
  • What It Is and How to Place lt.-“Immediate Order.”
  • Why Tips Are a Delusion and a Snare
  • What the Beginner Must Know
  • Puts, Calls, Spreads and Straddles
  • Your Broker, Your Order, and the Specialist
  • Long Distance Trading vs. Tape Reading
  • Don’ts for the Inexperienced
  • When to Go Slowly in Distributing the Risk
  • Why Many Traders Lose Money
  • Averaging
  • The Pyramid Theory
  • How Pyramids Must Be Planned and Worked Out Patience: A Virtue That May Be Overworked
  • Studying the Volume
  • When and How Trend Charts May Be Used
  • Trading in a Bear Market
  • Trading in a Bull Market
  • Making Money in a Trader’s Market

Volume II:

  • Ten Cardinal Principles of Trading
  • How to Commit Financial Suicide
  • Limitation of Losses Essential to Successful Trading
  • Why Mathematical Probabilities Favor the Trader Who Follows the Trend
  • Why Active Stocks Give Best Trading Results
  • Buying After Reactions
  • Successful Traders Know When to Sell as Well as When to Buy
  • Distributing the Risk
  • Don’t Let Your Profits Fade Away
  • Avoiding the anger of “Marketitis”
  • Knowledge of Fundamental and Technical Conditions Both Essential in Trading
  • Marking Down the Original Cost
  • Fundamental Factors in Investing
  • How to Begin Trading
  • Are Charts an Aid to Trading?
  • Why the Money Market Should Be Closely Observed by Investors
  • Explaining the Stock Market Cycle
  • The Importance of Fundr mentals
  • Development of Market Perspective 101
  • Earnings as a Measurement of Stock Values
  • How to Analyze a Balance Sheet
  • Developing Investment Discrimination
  • What Kind of a Management Has Your Company?
  • Are You Getting the Facts?
  • On Being Right Too Soon
  • Don’t Be a Slave to Charts
  • How Charts Deceive
  • Distribution, or Letting the Public Get Off Which?
  • Don’t Waste Time Wishing You Were In a Live Issue-Why Not Get In?
  • The Significance of Hope
  • Feeling for the Top
  • Study Carefully the Rules of the Game Before
  • You Begin to Play
  • The Cost of Cupidity or, How Avarice Impairs
  • The Trader’s Vision
  • Following the Leaders
  • Pyramiding
  • Pyramiding Practice vs. Theory
Studies in Stock Speculation (Volume I & II) By H. J. Wolf PDF

Stocks most and least likely to beat their earnings expectations – BofA

Why Super Micro Computer Rallied Over 60% in the First Half of the Year

Why Super Micro Computer Rallied Over 60% in the First Half of the Year

Key Points

  • Super Micro was seemingly vindicated from its accounting scandal at the end of 2024.

  • Yet growth slowed as the Nvidia's AI customers moved from Hopper to Blackwell.

  • But the company also inked a $20 billion deal in Saudi Arabia, spurring hope for the Blackwell cycle.


Shares of AI-focused server-maker Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) rallied 60.8% in the first half of the year, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Super Micro entered 2025 after a somewhat disastrous second half of 2024, when it was attacked by a short-seller, followed by its auditor resigning in October.

However, in February, Super Micro's new auditor, BDO, signed off on the company's financials from the prior three years. The seeming validation of the company, as well as optimism over AI growth in May and June, lifted shares strongly off a cheap valuation to start the year.

BDO signs off, and Super Micro blasts off

In its audit, BDO delivered an adverse opinion on Super Micro's internal controls and procedures; however, when actually reviewing transactions from 2022, 2023, and fiscal 2024, BDO noted that Super Micro's financial statements, "present fairly, in all material respects, the financial position of the Company."

So, Super Micro, while apparently being somewhat sloppy in its back-office procedures for a U.S. public company, was apparently cleared of the worst accusations of fraud. As a result, the company's stock rallied to over $66 per share in early February.

However, that rally was short-lived, as the stock soon gave way to the Trump Administration's tariff war. While Super Micro prides itself on being a U.S.-based server maker, its component supply chain and those of its chipmaking partners is very international. Thus, Super Micro soon fell back to earth along with many fellow AI companies.

Super Micro actually also had two somewhat disappointing earnings reports, as revenue growth missed expectations in both the December and March quarters. Still, the company posted 54.9% growth in the December quarter and 19.5% growth in March, which isn't so shabby.

Management chalked up the misses to a delay in the release of Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA) Blackwell chips, which only began production in late 2024 and ramped up throughout the first quarter. So, it's possible that availability may have been limited in the March quarter as, "customers delayed making platform decisions," according to the company. But management also forecast a 30% sequential step-up in revenue for the current June quarter, which should mark the beginning of the Blackwell cycle for Super Micro.

About a week after May's earnings, Super Micro got another positive jolt after it inked a multi-year, $20 billion deal with Datavolt, a Saudi Arabian data center operator, as part of the Trump administration's strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia. Unsurprisingly, Super Micro and other AI companies rallied in the wake of that announcement.

Where Super Micro goes from here

Despite the first-half rally, Super Micro still remains far off its 2024 highs, and only trades at 16 times next year's earnings estimates.

That's not expensive for a high-powered AI stock, but Super Micro's uneven growth, questions over margins, and perhaps investor hesitance due to last year's short-seller attack have limited its valuation. It will be interesting to see how results come through as Blackwell ramps, and whether investor sentiment can continue recovering.


微软联合创始人出书倒酸水

 

微软联合创始人出书倒酸水
2011-04-08   作者:卜晓明  来源:经济参考报
 
【字号 大 中 小】

    美国微软公司联合创始人保罗?艾伦出书爆料,他的商业伙伴比尔?盖茨曾谋划稀释他的股份,随后试图以“地板价”收购他所持股份。
  这本书名为《谋士:微软联合创始人的回忆录》,定于4月19日上架销售。
  美国《名利场》杂志3月30日刊登了这本书的节选。艾伦现年58岁,在西雅图执掌投资机构和慈善基金。
  艾伦在书中说,1982年12月,他无意中听到比尔?盖茨和微软现任首席执行官史蒂夫?鲍尔默之间一段对话,内容令他怒不可遏。
  “我听见比尔和史蒂夫正在比尔办公室言语激昂,于是停下来偷听,”他写道,“对话要点不难听清。他们正愁我最近工作量减少,讨论如何通过向他们自己和其他股东发放期权以稀释我的股份。”
  艾伦当时正接受名为霍奇金病的淋巴组织肿瘤治疗。他说,这让他意识到盖茨和鲍尔默权衡这件事已有时日。
  书中写道,他忍无可忍,冲进房间,向二人大喊:“这难以置信!你的真实为人暴露了,彻底暴露!”
  艾伦写道,盖茨当晚打来致歉电话。几天后,他收到盖茨一份长6页的亲笔道歉信。
  鲍尔默1980年加入微软并主管营销。对于鲍尔默的薪资待遇,盖茨和艾伦意见相左。书中写道,艾伦当时同意给鲍尔默不超过5%的公司股份,但盖茨背着他承诺给鲍尔默8.75%。
  “比尔在我们特别讨论过的合伙地位事宜上视我不见,这糟糕透顶,”书中写道,“更糟的是,他一直等我离开微软才把信寄出。”
  艾伦写道,盖茨最终从自己的股份中挪出额外那部分给鲍尔默。鲍尔默2000年出任微软首席执行官,如今是仅次于比尔?盖茨的第二大个人股东。
  艾伦回忆,他1983年离开微软时,盖茨曾试图以“地板价”收购他所持股份。盖茨说,“你保留微软股份有失公平”,提出以每股5美元价格收购。艾伦坚持出价不能低于每股10美元。最终,艾伦得以保留股票。
  艾伦说:“正如后来,比尔的保守主义偏向我。如果他愿意给出接近我要的价格,我可能早就卖了。”
  据《福布斯》杂志,艾伦如今身家130亿美元,在全球富豪榜名列第57位。
  艾伦与盖茨1975年创办微软。“微软”这个名称正是艾伦的创意。
  “从我们在马萨诸塞州起家时起,我就以为我们俩的合伙地位是各占50%,”艾伦写道,“但比尔另有主意。”
  1977年开始,鉴于盖茨在Altair电脑的译码工作方面对微软贡献较大,艾伦和盖茨同意分持36%和64%股份。后来,随着更多人加入微软,以及1986年首次公开募股(IPO),二人的股份遭到稀释。
  作为世界第二大富豪,盖茨正在印度推广自己的慈善项目。盖茨没有正面驳斥艾伦在书中的记叙。他在声明中说:“虽然我记忆中的其中一些事件与保罗所说不同,但我珍视他的友谊以及他对世界技术行业和微软所做的重要贡献。”
  二人在合作期间曾产生许多分歧,却为这段伙伴关系给出一致评价。艾伦写道,正如盖茨当年在道歉信中所说,“过去14年间,我们分歧重重,然而,我怀疑任何两名合伙人,能在如此多的具体决定和宏观意见方面达成一致”。

  凡标注来源为“经济参考报”或“经济参考网”的所有文字、图片、音视频稿件,及电子杂志等数字媒体产品,版权均属新华社经济参考报社,未经书面授权,不得以任何形式发表使用。

比尔·盖茨捐出巨额财富,净资产缩水510亿美元

 盖茨的净资产缩水510亿美元,只因他立志不带着财富离世。如今,他在微软的前助理史蒂夫·鲍尔默已取代他成为全球第五大富豪。图片来源:ROSLAN RAHMAN / Getty Images

比尔·盖茨曾连续18年位居世界首富之列,目前因联合创立软件巨头微软而拥有令人艳羡的1,240亿美元净资产。但如今,由于盖茨数十亿美元的慈善捐赠,他的前助理在银行账户中的财富已经超过了他。

7月3日,盖茨身家高达1,750亿美元,在彭博亿万富豪指数(Bloomberg Billionaire Index)中排名全球第五。但在接下来的几天里,随着其净资产缩水510亿美元,他的财富急剧下降,排名也直线下跌至第12位,排在另一位科技先驱迈克尔·戴尔之后。

盖茨的财富之所以消失得如此迅速,是因为该指数根据这位69岁科技大亨的慈善行为进行了调整。彭博社指出,基于这位前微软CEO在5月8日博客文章中的说明,上周调低了其财富增值率,以“更好地反映盖茨的外部慈善捐赠和财富评估情况”。该说明披露,盖茨将比原计划更快地把巨额财富捐给慈善机构;未来20年内,他会将几乎全部财富捐给他与前妻梅琳达·弗兰奇·盖茨共同创立的盖茨基金会(The Gates Foundation),该基金会将于2045年底关闭。

盖茨写道:“当我离世时,人们会对我做出许多评价,但我决心不让‘他离世时很富有’成为其中之一。有许多难题亟待解决,我不能紧握那些本可用于助人的资源不放。”

多年来,盖茨一直坚持为了造福社会而削减个人财富,甚至表示他的子女将继承他“不到1%”的财富。如今,他的目标正反映在其净资产的变化上。他的慈善捐赠甚至为他微软时期的前助理史蒂夫·鲍尔默创造条件,使其以1,720亿美元身家取代盖茨成为全球第五大富豪,而这种情况并非首次发生。

《财富》已联系盖茨寻求置评。

史蒂夫·鲍尔默是谁?为何他比盖茨更富有?

大多数员工从未想过自己的收入会超过老板。但鲍尔默在一个幸运的时机踏入了微软的大门,此后数十年,财富便源源不断地流入他的银行账户。

1980年,鲍尔默加入尚处初创阶段的微软,担任总裁助理,是这家日益壮大的科技公司的第30名员工。他放弃了斯坦福大学(Stanford)的MBA课程来接受这份工作,并获得了5万美元的基本工资,外加他所创造业务利润增长部分的10%分成。鲍尔默当时并未获得任何股份,但事实证明,这笔10%的分成极其丰厚。

但不久后,公司业务飞速增长,这种利润分成方式在财务上不具可行性。于是经过重新谈判,鲍尔默用他的利润分成协议换取了公司8%的股权。公司的另一位联合创始人保罗·艾伦对这个交易并不满意,他认为给予鲍尔默的股份太多。但盖茨动用自己的资金满足了鲍尔默的要求,接下来的故事便众所周知了。

这位盖茨的前助理最终一路晋升,接替了老板的职位,在2000年至2014年间担任微软CEO。当他卸任CEO时,他持有3.33亿股微软股票,约合公司4%的股份,价值225亿美元。如今,69岁的鲍尔默的大部分投资组合仍与微软股票紧密相关,但他将自己庞大的财富归因于恰逢其时的选择,并且没有过早套现。

他去年对《华尔街日报》表示:“如果有人告诉你,他们的成功全因自己是天才,我会说他们应该感谢自己的好运气。别管股价如何。本质上,我很幸运得以聆听那些真正重要的人的见解。但我对公司的忠诚——作为公司领导者不愿出售股票——也为我带来了好运。”

此后,鲍尔默开始涉足科技以外的领域。这位婴儿潮一代人士在从微软退休的同一年,以20亿美元买下了洛杉矶快船队(Los Angeles Clippers),如今该球队的估值已达55亿美元。

在盖茨榜样的影响下,他也热衷于慈善事业;迄今为止,他已捐赠超过40亿美元财富,并创立了慈善组织鲍尔默集团(Ballmer Group),致力于改善美国家庭的经济流动性状况。

 

CIBR etf | Sescurity ETF

 With almost $6.6 billion in assets under management, the First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF is by far the largest pure-play ETF in this part of the technology sector. First Trust is a large financial services firm offering a variety of investment products, and its cybersecurity offering is one of the longest-tenured in the ETF world. Its inception dates back to 2015, and shares of the fund have more than doubled since then.