Lessons learned | AVGO stock | 30 minutes - $4/ share dollar rebound and up to $12/ share - more than 2+% | Demand box | Be patient | 5 min chart EMA 50 - Take profit - $351/ share | Fib Retracement 1.618

 5 min chart 

I decided to move on AVGO to buy dip, and got caught on stop loss with $75 dollars 100 share. Of course it is too close related to ATR. 

First trade, stop loss should consider ATR - too close to entry price, stop loss means losing money. 

5 minute trade 

• 10:26 - 10:31 AM EST - 5 minute trade
• 100 share 
• Entry price: 344.1096
• Take profit: 343.32
• Profit: ($76) Loss US dollars 

Analysis: Stop loss is not carefully considered, I just gambled on the rebound and short-term profit. I did not wait long signals coming out together. Be patient. 

I came back and then noticed that demand box showed up. It is time for me to take entry price as is. 

ATR 2.10, 1.5 x ATR or 2.0 x ATR, so stop loss should be $4 US dollars, the stop loss is $4 dollars less, $340/ share

7 minute trade 

• 11:03 - 11:10 AM EST 
• 100 share 
• Entry price: 345.7522
• Take profit: 346.3701
• Profit: $62 US dollars 

Should hold the position for another 2 - 3 hours until AVGO stock hits resistance level - EMA 50 - pivot level, the profit will be $10 * 100 shares = $1000 US dollars

I did not think about how to find measured move, which should be related to pivot levels and then it is quick and easy to find using the pivot levels indicator. 

First 5 min chart EMA21 is the first resistance, if AVGO breaks up, then it should move up to EMA 50. Or using pivot levels. Actual final rebound is up to EMA 100. 

Lessons learned:

1. Set stop loss properly - using ATR 
2. Be patient, wait for confluence of long signals - demand box, FVG, order block, consolidation range lasted 60 minutes
3. Take profit - Consider first resistance level - 5 min chart AVGO EMA 21, next level EMA 50, EMA 100 
4. Compared to other stocks, AVGO stock's rebound started after 60 minutes consolidation, and it went up 2%, 10/ share. I can make 1000 US dollars in less than 3 hours with 100 shares. I should  consider the profit and then work hard and concentrate on the task.  

5 min chart - confluence

Action - order block area - VWAP 5 min second dev - Wait demand box showed up and pivot low $342.34 showed up - FVG showed up in light green color - Ready to get in - Missed EMA 5 bright color line 

Confluence to buy dip: 

1. Demand box - 5 min chart - start from bar count 16 on 5 minute chart 
2. 3 bars - volume and gain - check the indicator 
3. MTF zigzag - show 342.34/ share - Lowest pivot point
4. Light gray color - should be SMC concept - order block
5. VWAP - 2nd dev line - support 
6. Bar count No. 10 - D - No 15 - No. 16 - demand box showed up - It took No. 7 to No 16 - 50 minutes - consolidation range 
7. Bar count No. 18 - FVG - strong bullish signal - Add all positions at bar count No. 18 - Wait
8. Show clear picture from bar count No. 6 to Nov 20

The follow chart is not so clear, need a better one 

Confluence:

1. 5 min - order block
2. Demand and supply box - demand box - show strong volume in three bar pattern
3. Buy - 
4. Sell - Should be patient - 30 minutes - 400 US dollars - This time take profit should be close to 5 min chart - EMA 200 - purple color line on top of the chart - Close to $360/ share
5. Sell - Exit early - Not patient - Need to learn how to measure move of rebound - ?
6. Wait for 5 min bar showing - peaked 

Lessons learned:

1. 1 min chart is different from 5 min chart, once 5 min chart showed up demand box, I should stay on 5 min chart and let chart run without monitoring all the time. 

1 min chart 

5 min chart 

Lessons learned:

1. Compare 1 min chart to 5 min chart a few times, and then find the entry price with different signals
2. Advanced chart pattern in one minute chart showed double bottom - Second bottom is the entry price

Actual my trade should be the following:

Compared to my actual trade:

7 minute trade 

• 11:03 - 11:10 AM EST 
• 100 share 
• Entry price: 345.7522
• Take profit: 346.3701
• Profit: $62 US dollars 

Should hold the position for another 2 - 3 hours until AVGO stock hits resistance level - EMA 50 - pivot level, the profit will be $10 * 100 shares = $1000 US dollars

Replay the following one hour 1 min chart again and again, at least 10 times and then learn how to read 1 min chart and also make informed decision based on 5 min, 15 min charts information quickly. 

Take profit:

1 min chart - EMA 50 vs 5 min EMA 9 

1 min chart - EMA 100  vs 5 min EMA 20   <- First resistance level 

1 min chart - EMA  200 vs 5 min EMA 50    <- Second resistance level 

Replay another hour 1 min chart a few times:

Using pivot level  

And find next upper level pivot levels - First take profit measured move is beyond the pivot levels, then it will retrace to retest the pivot level. 

Next upper pivot level - $352/ share - Should set the measure move - $352 + ATR = close to $357/ share

1 min chart 

1 min chart 
Supply box - Sell the position 

Bright yellow - EMA 5 - 

Introduce indicator related to supply and demand 

AVGO stock - 5 min chart - Make sure that 5 min demand box showed up in green box - rectangle 

EMA 5 crossed up EMA 9 - stay above EMA 9 all the time - EMA 5 bright yellow color

CRDO stock | D chart | Earning crash

 

CRM stock | How to catch the uptrend 70%?

I like to quickly write down some tips how to catch last uptrend of CRM 70%. 

1. First of all, review all uptrend/ downtrend since January 2026
2. Last uptrend - Around June 1 - uptrend 22% - Almost close to EMA 200 - But failed 
3. Downtrend after June 1 - 30% down - This is bottom of CRM stock 
4. CRM stock is best stock and best PE ratio - but three downtrend before it took uptrend to test EMA 200
5. Uptrend - 19% followed by downtrend 11.56%
6. Best entry point - June 22 2026
7. If you miss June 22 2026, wait retracement - Fib retracement 60% 0.618 - 0.712
8. July 23 - Fib Retracement - high probability area to stop - confluence - order block
9. Last chance - CRM crossed up EMA 200 - Get in on EMA 200

HPE stock | Uptrend | D chart | Review | Earnings

 

I missed the uptrend in April, HPE went up over 200% in 68 days - What a run! 

MDB stock | D chart | uptrend 15 days and downtrend 14 days | Between EMA 100 and EMA 50

 

cbrs stock high risk in September or not

 Yes, Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) stock is considered a high-risk investment in September 2026. While its proprietary wafer-scale AI chips provide a strong technological moat, the stock faces significant near-term structural pressures, including a staggered insider lock-up expiration, extreme valuation multiples, and severe customer concentration. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Before allocating capital to a high-beta AI stock like CBRS, you should note that concentrated, high-growth assets carry a substantial risk of total capital loss if broader market conditions sour or execution falters. Framing CBRS within a broadly diversified portfolio—rather than as a single concentrated bet—is a critical risk-mitigation strategy.

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🔎 Key Risk Catalysts for September 2026

➡️ 1. Staggered Lock-up Expirations

Unlike typical initial public offerings (IPOs) that unlock all insider shares at once, Cerebras uses a staggered lock-up structure. [1]

The Risk: Tranches of insider shares unlock at the end of consecutive quarters.
September Impact: With tranches coming due around the end of the current quarter, a sudden influx of shares available for sale can create major technical headwinds and downward pressure on the share price. Insider selling has already reached $266 million over the past year. [1, 2]

➡️ 2. Extreme Price-to-Sales (P/S) Valuation

Despite pulling back more than 40% from its post-IPO highs earlier this year, CBRS continues to trade at a massive premium compared to the rest of the semiconductor industry. [1, 2, 3]

The Metrics: Cerebras trades at a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 60x to 88x. [1, 2]

“The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 60 times, an enormous premium for a company that is still losing money on a GAAP basis.” -- [Barchart].

September Impact: At these multiples, the stock leaves absolutely zero room for operational error. Any hawkish shifts from the Federal Reserve or broader macro tech corrections will disproportionately hurt high-multiple names like CBRS. [1, 2]

➡️ 3. Intense Customer Concentration

Cerebras boasts an massive $25.4 billion order backlog (Remaining Performance Obligations). However, this backlog behaves as a double-edged sword. [1, 2]

The Reality: “The order book that makes Cerebras look de-risked came from a single deal, and the hyperscaler partnerships meant to broaden it are not yet producing revenue.” -- [Yahoo Finance / Trefis].
The Concentration: The vast majority of this backlog is anchored to its multi-year deal with OpenAI. If OpenAI slows its deployment, turns to competitors like Broadcom or Nvidia, or renegotiates terms, Cerebras loses almost all future revenue visibility. [1, 2]

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📊 Comparing the Risk/Reward Dynamics

Risk Metric / Catalyst	Bear Case (High Risk Factor)	Bull Case (Mitigating Factor)
Supply Technicals	Staggered lock-up tranches continuously hitting the market.	Heavy institutional accumulation by funds like Cathie Wood's ARK.
Profitability	Deeply GAAP unprofitable with high capital intensity to build data centers.	Raised full-year 2026 core revenue guidance to $880M–$890M.
Revenue Stream	Over 70% of revenues are concentrated in a single client relationship.	Announced global expansion, including a new 165 MW AI data center in Finland.

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💡 Strategic Framework for Evaluation

If you are considering trading or holding CBRS through September, apply the following risk-mitigation framework:

Size the Position Appropriately: Due to its high-beta nature, speculative assets like CBRS should generally occupy only a small single-digit percentage of an overall investment portfolio.
Monitor the Macro Tech Environment: Watch for the broader semiconductor index movements. CBRS has shown a tendency to trade down sharply on macro tech pullbacks, even when reporting positive company-specific news. [1, 2]
Trace the Backlog Timeline: Remember that management only guides for $214M–$216M in Q3 revenue. The massive $25.4B backlog is a multi-year metric that will not translate to immediate cash flow this month.