MRO stock: 1000 shares of MRO purchased on Sept. 28, 2020

 Sept. 30, 2020

Introduction

It is my short drill to practice how to hold 1000 shares of MRO stock. I like to write down something to remind me to learn something from my USA IRA account. 

MRO stock

It is easy to buy and sell since the volume is over 10,000,000 each day. I am not sure why so many investor buy and sell every day. 

I also think that oil price is low right now. If I can stay long time, then I should get 10 to 20% return at least. 

It is too many shares compared to the price $4.15. I already has loss 5%. I need to set trailing stop so that I will lose more than 500 dollars on this position, same as I did with SABR stock. 

MRO stock 1000 shares - stop loss

It is hard for me to learn how to stop loss early. I still gambled on Sept. 28, 2020. I thought that it was a good idea to bet on MRO rebound near 10%, so I stepped in when MRO rebounded around 4%, but it did not happen. 

It is important for me to stop loss early when the priced dropped 10cents, so that my loss would be $100 dollars for 1000 shares. If I set stop loss on 5 cents, then my 1000 shares of MRO stock will have $50.00 dollars. 

It is much easy for me to recover $50.00 dollars, but it is hard for me to recover $190 dolloar loss. 

It is hard to resist the gambling thoughts

It is hard for me to resist gambling thoughts. I have to be careful and take small stop loss instead of letting 1000 shares of investment go down almost 30 cent/ share. 

Use five day chart to calculate risk

It is better for me to calculate risk before I purchase 1000 shares of MRO stock. The lowest price is $4.06, so I can calculate the risk is $300 dollars if I do not stop loss early. Actually it is true that on Sept. 29, the price went down $4.06, I was so nervous, and I set trailing stop when the loss was around 5%. 

In the evening of Sept. 29, 2020, I put together a sell order to sell MRO 1000 share at price of 4.34, but it did not happen. 

Sold with $190 dollars loss

I have to learn how to cut loss each time I place a bet. Set stop loss around $50 dollars and make it less than $100 dollars. 

If I continue to bet on MRO stock, then I may end up with loss over $600 dollars. I had loss over $600 dollars on SABR stock. 

Actionable items:

Dec. 10, 2020

I learned the lesson. I sold 1000 share of MRO, now the price is around $7.0/ share. Almost 100% gains. I sold because I did not expect big gains and hard to beat the market. 

So it is more important for me to stay in long term, and bet on 80% return in stock market. 

Follow up

Oct. 17, 2021

I like to go back to work on investment of oil stock MRO. I just could not believe what I think about MRO as a stock to invest. 

MRO stock: Yahoo -> Finance -> Conversation

Sept. 19, 2020

I like to figure out the calculation in the following:

Unreal MRO is not $7 bucks now. When you look at MRO`s break even of $35 a barrel and then look at WTI prices from July to Sept with 12 days left in this quarters you see we have averaged about $41 a barrel. So if we are producing 190,000 barrels a day(bopd) x $6 of free cash flow that is $1.14 million everyday. That is $103.74 million this quarter of free cash flow. That means to pay bills MRO makes $605.15 million plus free cash flow of $103.74 = Revenue of $708.89 million. Now here is the interesting thing. MRO has cut capital expenditure budget to $1.2 billion for 2020. If MRO has cut cost across all basins that $35 breakeven could be lower. Let`s say they got it down to $30 per barrel. That is $190.19 million free cash flow.

Yes maybe that is to low but look what happens at $35 if WTI hits $50 . Free cash flow is $259.35 million per quarter. Citi had oil next year at $60 by year end. Let`s say $55 WTI. Free cash flow is $345.8 million per quarter give or take.

Bottom line with that much free cash coming in no way MRO stock sits at $4.68. Your looking at the low end of $12 per share next year to high end of $22 per share.

Now MRO has a tender offer of $500 million of it`s bonds 2.8 percent. Expires Oct 14 2020. It will cost them $525 million. I don`t know what to think about that. Are they selling a asset? Did they win the lotto? Did they get a lower interest government loan? Why clean up the balance sheet ?

One thing for sure, now is the time to buy MRO before the big run up. If not many of you can say BK all you want . We that bought will wave at you as we pull up to the bank in a armored car because this stock is going to make us rich.

Avoid big loss: Define big loss - over $50 dollars is a big loss

 Sept. 30, 2020

Introduction

I have to learn how to control my gambling behavior, set stop loss early; Do not worry about missing Canadian oil stock rebound. I need to set $50.00 dollars stop loss for each bet. 

MRO 1000 shares on Sept. 28, 2020

I had over $180 dollars loss on MRO 1000 shares

I like to work on research how to stop loss with small amount. Otherwise I will lose my capital quickly. I have to learn how to stop loss early with small amount. 

Do not think about betting on big amount like 1000 shares for MRO, and also I need to check 5 days range of MRO stock first. What is range of swing when I like to make purchase? Use the range to determine how many shares I should bet on. 

For example, I like bet on MRO when price was $4.34/ share, five day minimum price is $4.06, so I need to take risk of $0.28/ share. If my limit of one bet is $50 dollars, then I should at most purchase 200 shares. If I do not set stop loss, then I may lose $50 dollars. 

Actually I bet on 1000 shares. The loss will be $280 dollars. 

Actionable Items

Bet on small amount. Try to have loss, loss, loss and big win. I need to learn how to stop loss early, and then catch big rebound if needed. 

I also record the video and here is the link on my youtube channel. 

I also record the video in Chinese to share my thoughts for my future to review. Here is the link.

Follow up

Oct. 17, 2021

I just could not believe what I wrote down. It is so good to read my thoughts and see my growth as an investor. Today MRO stock went up around $16/ share. 

April 21, 2022

I just could not believe that MRO stock price is around $26 dollars a share. I should have just held those 1000 shares for two years, then I will have $22,000 US dollars gain on my Ameritrade.com IRA account.

Is it too hard for me to learn how to be a long term investor? 

MRO stock: Marathon Oil Stock Doesn’t Look as If It’s Going Anywhere Anytime Soon

 Here is the article.

The Houston-based energy firm, which has a market cap of about $3.46 billion, can trace its roots to 1887 and Standard Oil, taking twists and turns over the century-plus to even be a part of United States Steel.

Few people would describe Marathon Oil as a high flier. Over the last five years, MRO stock chugged along in the upper teens and 20s, with some peaks and valleys along the way.

The company’s dividend, meanwhile, helped lure energy and income investors to buy its relatively affordable shares.

For instance, five years ago you could buy a share of MRO stock for $19.59. Two years ago, that share fetched $23.41. It hasn’t been that high since.

Over the last 12 months, MRO topped out at $14 and change. The stock’s 52-week low is $3.02. That’s probably less than you would pay for a bottle of soda and snack at the gas station’s store. Now, a gallon of gasoline would cost less – and that is part of Marathon’s woes.

Marathon trimmed costs and capital spending during the quarter, said Lee Tillman, the company’s chairman, president and CEO said in a statement:

“Amid tremendous commodity volatility, our ongoing response to the COVID-19 global pandemic, and a challenging year for our industry, we have remained focused on the factors we can control: how we allocate capital, how we manage our cost structure, and how we execute.”

Marathon Oil is scheduled to post its third-quarter earnings after the market closes on Nov. 4.

The company also is restoring its dividend. The payout of 3 cents per share will be paid quarterly beginning Dec. 10 to MRO stock holders of record as of Nov. 18.

Tillman said the company can break even if oil is priced at $35 a barrel.

SABR: Yahoo -> Finance -> Conversation

 4 hours ago

Two years ago, I placed an order 1000 share of MRO at price $4.5, now it is $28. I cut loss around $180 dollars. Right now, I set up helper for SABR 7000 shares at cost 7.1, it is 2000 shares of MRO. Two years one lesson on MRO. Stay in the market, and work on long term.

2 days ago

It is hard for me to learn to be a long term investor. I failed on BORR, GTE.TO, GTE, MRO, CVE, OVV. I formed habit to trade on short term, but I could not realize BORR 300% return from June 2021 to June 202, OVV 20 baggers, GTE 20,000 share on $80 Canada cents -> $1.8. Now I am working on my first investment training, SABR, 6700 shares, cut loss 10,000 first, and then got back $7.10, had over $5000 gains around $7.90, and now went back with $5000 dollar loss. What is secret to a long term investor? Just ignore market up and down. I need to preserve cash for bear market, and continue to work on SABR research.

Guidelines

• 

  yesterday

  Simple advice….set a long term price target and be disciplined not to sell until you reach it. For me, I am holding many shares of Sabre until it hits $14.90 and will not sell a single share until then. It may take a year or even 2 years, but that’s ok with me.

• 8 days ago

  SABR went down over 3.43%, and I like to review technology strength:
  
  Senior Director Software Engineering
  
  Aug 2015 - Present · 6 yrs 10 mos
  Southlake, Texas, United States
  • Managing development of USD 12M+ R&D budget for multiple product lines in the Airline IT portfolio used by 100+ airlines generating USD 60M+ in revenues. Primary responsibilities include:
  - managing and providing leadership to 100+ team members across three global development centers with 8 direct reports (software engineering managers, technical product managers, software architect)
  - closely collaborating with product management and cross-functional teams (UI/UX, PMO, Operations Research -OR)
  - executing product roadmap (investment budget) and customer change requests (CRs)
  - improving SCRUM team productivity using tools, processes and metrics
  - ensuring quality and stability with release management best practices and extensive monitoring
  - driving cost efficiencies and speed to market by automating CI/CD pipeline
  - defining and executing technology transformation in partnership with Google. This involves migrating complex monolithic applications to GCP, Cloud SQL, containerization/GKE, REST API and Microservices architecture with a web front end
  
  Those 100+ team member and three development centers are so important for SABRE business. One more quarter, two more quarters, business will continue to improve since pandemic should have gone ...

  

  Guidelines

  • 

    6 days ago

    Money and manpower help but won't solve SABR's technology problem. That needs the right leaders. My sense is SABR's tech operations is dated to IBM era, with numerous modern pieces of patched on top, here and there. Whomever can fix it should be hired to fix IRS's tech shop, which is even more dated.
• 

  12 days ago

  Plan to invest another 2 - 3 years, if recession does happen, interest goes up.
  
  This high debt level entails additional interest costs which ranged from $80M to $100M annually, compared to 2019. The company has paid $156M of interest payment in 2019, and this is increased to $235M during 2020.
  
  Thus the recovery of operating cash flow will be offset by this interest payment from 2021 to 2024. Prior to the pandemic, the company generated an operating cash flow of $735M excluding the interest payments of $156M. I expect that the company will generate an operating cash flow before interest payment of $10M to $200M in 2021. This level of operating cash flow is not enough to cover annual interest costs of $230M. From 2022 to 2023, the company will begin to record the positive operating cash flow, but more than half of those values will be used for paying the interests. Of course, this means that equity investors cannot expect the dividends for at least 2-3 years.
• 

  12 days ago

  SABRE debt management plan:
  Over the next 2-3 years of recovery, the company will not lower its debt level significantly because it needs to keep its cash reserve until its operating cash flow recovery is strong enough. According to my forecast (see the last table at the end of the post), the company cannot generate meaningful cash flow that can pay off the debt of $500M - $600M until the year 2023. This is also evident in the company's own debt repayment schedule in the table below. According to this schedule, the major repayment will start from 2023 with $645M, followed by $1.9B in 2024.
• 

  12 days ago

  From a day trader to a good thinker, learn one thing a day about SABRE business:
  
  During the initial pandemic shock to the travel industry, the company’s revenue declined by -67% YoY during 2020. The company started to burn cash by recording a negative operating cash flow of -$773M during 2020.
  
  To manage this unprecedented crisis, the company raised its capital by $1.5B. ($1.1B from loan, $375M from equity and $69M from the leaseback of their own building.) Also, the company has made its business model lean, via restructuring and reducing its global workforce by 20%. The company could increase the operating margin by migrating over from a legacy server to a cloud infrastructure. The company now expects to have $175M to $200M in annual savings from 2021 onwards, based on their last quarterly review.
• 

  13 days ago

  I did some research about SABRE. There are total around 800 employees in Texas headquarters, 300 in India, 300 in Europe countries; And SABRE is also cutting budget and in 2021 SABRE cut office space, two -> one building office. I googled https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2021/01/11/sabres-southlake-headquarters-campus-sells/
  
  One senior manager left SABRE to join AMAZON as a manager, one senior architect joined Amazon Vancouver. Anyway, the company tech leadership is no problem.
  
  Everything is normal about SABRE. I chose good tech company, which can survive, grow through pandemic, with vaccine.
  
  Also since I Hold so many shares, it is hard to resist tempation to do day trade. I chose no to day trade. I did my case study about Nov. 2021 oil stocks, 5000 dollars GTE, I chose OXY, MRO, CVE, APA, and RIG to track growth together, diversification is definitely good idea. OXY over 100% gain, GTE over 100% gain, RIG only 10% gain, MRO 80%, APA 58%
• 

  19 days ago

  why is this trash not moving with the index anymore?
• 

  20 days ago

  Glad to see SABR up 5%, compared to NCLH 13%, AAL 7%. I still learned to hold those positions of SABR. I have 6700 shares, average cost: 7.08. I cut loss over $11,000 dollars a few weeks ago. Learn to stay in the market, do not time the market.

  

  Guidelines

  • 

    19 days ago

    Agree..good advice. It may take a year or two, however I think those who are patient will recognize over 100% ROI. This is my largest position currently and the one I am least worried about.