The probability of a Nasdaq-100 (NDX) rebound tomorrow, February 24, 2026, is currently tempered by strong bearish momentum after the index closed down 1.21% today at 24,708.94. While technical indicators like a 58% weekly chance of finishing higher suggest a potential for recovery if support holds, the market is facing significant headwinds from renewed tariff turmoil (global 15% hike under Section 122) and AI disruption fears following massive sell-offs in software and payment giants like IBM and American Express.
Key Rebound Factors for February 24
- Support & Resistance Levels: The index is currently testing near-term support at 24,650. A break below today's low of 24,618.23 could signal further correction toward 24,400. Reclaiming the 25,000 psychological level is critical to restoring a bullish outlook.
- Nvidia Earnings Impact: Market sentiment is heavily leaning on Nvidia’s earnings later this week. Positive guidance could act as a sector-wide catalyst, potentially sparking an early rebound in anticipation.
- Market Sentiment: Betting markets like Polymarket show traders are actively speculating on whether the NDX will close "Up" or "Down" tomorrow, reflecting the high volatility driven by "headline-driven moves" regarding trade policy and geopolitics.
- Technical Momentum: The RSI for major indices is currently around 43, which is not yet in "oversold" territory (below 30), suggesting there may still be room for further downside before a significant technical bounce occurs.
Performance Snapshot (February 23, 2026)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last Price | 24,708.94 |
| Daily Change | -1.21% (-303.68 pts) |
| Day High | 24,984.82 |
| Day Low | 24,618.23 |
| Year-to-Date (YTD) | -2.38% |
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