Coronavirus test in Vancouver area

March 30, 2020

Introduction

I am planning to go back to work this Wednesday after 7 days vacation, and I have to go to get Coronavirus test if I can. It is helpful for me to explain in case I make sneezes in the office.

Where to go

I need to find the test site for public without the referral.

Is the Stock Market About to Crash... Again?

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The last week in the stock market has been absolute insanity. On March 12th, the stock market officially entered a bear market. This happens when a major index like the Dow, S&P 500 or NASDAQ drops 20% from the high. After that the Dow kept sliding, to a close of $18,591.93 on Monday of last week. From the high close on February 12th of $29,551.42 the DOW was officially down 37%. Then, something unexpected happened. From Monday close to Thursday, the market rallied 21.3% the best 3 day rally since. On that note, the market officially exited bear market territory. This officially became the shortest bear market in history of just 11 trading days. On Friday, the market dropped 4% putting us back to 27% below the February high close. So, is the pain over? My guess is not… here’s why!

Case study: search in rotated sorted array

I will add more detail later, 10:00 PM mock interview as an interviewer.

Par 401 K portfolio - March 23 - March 27 bull market

March 29, 2020

Introduction

It is tough for me to make any rebalancing during this 4 times circuit-breaks. I like to look into how many ideas for me to work on.

Case study

Actionable Items

I should simplify the portfolio, and only three positions, one is bond, two equities at most. I like to move 70% equities to Fidelity 500 index, 30% to bond Western asset core plus bond!.

How Close Is J.C. Penney to Bankruptcy? (JCP, KSS)

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2016 Ivey Value Investing Classes Guest Speaker: Lauren Templeton

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Ivey Business School’s Value Investing Classes of 2016 welcomed Lauren Templeton as a Guest Speaker. Ms. Templeton is the Founder and President of Templeton & Phillips Capital Management, LLC in Chattanooga, TN.

18:00/ 1:33:38 - 20:00
Good news and bad news

It is bear market. This is bad news.
What stocks do you recommend to buy? This is good news. This is tough.


Do you have capacity to suffer? Put capital to work. Reap the reward to do that. Conditioning your brain to do that.

Look for market crash. Dog food crisis. Swan food crisis. How can we make money on this swan flu? Do you do that a lot of times, you are conditioned to do that.

Traits of successful from John Templeton:

bargain hunt - key traits - everything - notorious - holes on his sports sock - save for opportunities - broad social flexibility

most disciplines man - devote tons of time to study

ideas to post on the window - 4:00 am
retreat from a value investor - remove them from market

Step back and focus long term - response right now
thoughts control - positive thinking - simplicity

Vintage Warren Buffett, John Templeton & Robert Wilson Discussing Investment Principles (1985)

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Book review: Investing the Templeton Way

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Templeton received his first lesson in value investing early. His father, Harvey Sr., was a lawyer. During the mid- to late 1920s, many farmers were driven into bankruptcy. Their farms would come up for auction in the town square opposite Harvey Sr.’s office. When the auctions failed to produce a bidder, he would step out and snap them up for a pittance.

These farms were sold a generation later at huge profits. From these events Templeton imbibed the lesson that the farms per se were no ..

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/book-review-investing-the-templeton-way/articleshow/40766532.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

He borrowed $10,000 and invested in 104 stocks, each trading at below $1. Of these, 37 were in bankruptcy. He wagered that the war would lead to a turnaround in the fortunes of even these weaklings.

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/book-review-investing-the-templeton-way/articleshow/40766532.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

7 Essential Investing Tips From The Best Investing Books Ever

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Book Review – Investing the Templeton Way (by Lauren Templeton/Scott Phillips) publish 2008

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SIR JOHN TEMPLETON: INVESTING THE TEMPLETON WAY

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How much I spent on one week vacation?

March 29, 2020

Introduction

It is so tough for me to go over one week vacation with minimum outdoor activities. Most of time I tracked coronavirus and also worked on my investment portfolio. It is most cheap vacation I spent from 2010 to 2020.

Case study

I will add more here.

Lauren Templeton: "Investing the Templeton Way" | Talks at Google

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"Bull market are born on perssimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum perssimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell."

Sir John Templeton

Trouble is opportunity

This talk covered the subjects of value investing and behavioral finance through the lens of a practitioner. Ms. Templeton spoke on the subject with an eye towards both beginners and practitioners, while sharing valuable lessons learned from her great-uncle, Sir John Templeton. Lauren C. Templeton is the founder and president of Templeton & Phillips Capital Management, LLC; a value investing boutique located in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Ms. Templeton received a B.A. in Economics from the University of the South. She is the founder and former president of the Southeastern Hedge Fund Association, Inc. based in Atlanta, Georgia. Ms. Templeton currently serves the on the Board of Trustees at the Baylor School, Board of Advisors for The Beacon Center of Tennessee and the Atlas Board of Overseers. Ms. Templeton is also an active member of Rotary International. She serves on the investment committee of Chattanooga Rotary Club 103 and the investment committee of The Rotary Foundation.

In the past, Ms. Templeton has served as President of the Atlanta Hedge Fund Roundtable and as the Director of the Galtere Institute: Finance for the Future Initiative at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. Additionally, Ms. Templeton has been a member of the Board of Directors of the Memorial Hospital Foundation, a member of the Finance Advisory Board of the University of Tennessee Chattanooga, and also served on the Chattanooga Area Chamber of Commerce Board of Directors. Lauren is the great niece of Sir John M. Templeton and is a current member of the John M. Templeton Foundation. The John Templeton Foundation was established in 1987 by renowned international investor, Sir John Templeton. Lauren Templeton began investing as a child under the heavy influence of her father as well as her late great-uncle, Sir John Templeton. Professionally speaking, Lauren began her career working with managed portfolios and investments in 1998, beginning as a junior associate at the financial advisor Homrich and Berg and later the hedge fund management company New Providence Advisors both of Atlanta. In 2001, Lauren launched her own hedge fund management company which dedicates its efforts to the practice of value investing across the global markets using the same methods learned from her great-uncle, Sir John Templeton. Ms. Templeton is also the co-author of, Investing the Templeton Way: The Market Beating Strategies of Value Investing Legendary Bargain Hunter, 2007, McGraw Hill, which has been translated into nine languages. Lauren lives in Chattanooga, with her husband, Scott Phillips, who is a portfolio manager of the Global Maximum Pessimism Fund and author of the investing book, Buying at the Point Maximum Pessimism: Six Value Investing Trends from China to Oil to Agriculture, 2010, FT Press, and co-author to the revised edition of The Templeton Touch, 2012, Templeton Press. Lauren and Scott produce a monthly investment report titled the Maximum Pessimism Report. Lauren and Scott enjoy spending their free time with their two daughters.

Sir John Templeton, 1912-2008

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Meet Guest Shark Maria Sharapova - Shark Tank

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Investing In Schlumberger Stocks

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Case study: How to purchase less than $1 a share on this market?

March 29, 2020

Introduction

It is hard for me to come out some creative ideas to invest, so I like to watch videos, read the article and then search some ideas. The most important part is to consider which ideas make sense, what I can do to apply? 

Case study: Templeton, 1939

Shortly after Templeton started his firm, investor pessimism surged. In 1939, World War II began with Germany's invasion of Poland and stocks around the world fell. In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 25% over five months. Sensing pessimism was at a maximum, Templeton bought $100 worth of stock in every company trading for less than $1 a share on the New York Stock Exchange. He purchased 104 companies for about $10,400. Four years later, his account balance topped $40,000 even though 34 companies had gone bankrupt. Templeton's investment generated an average annual return of 40% a year because he understood pessimism had created bargains.

There are risks associated with this strategy. Some of the companies trading under $1 a share will go bankrupt. In Templeton's case, about one-third of the stocks went bankrupt. The gains he enjoyed resulted from the fact that many of the companies will rebound and reward investors. An example from more recent times demonstrates the size of the potential gains. In March 2009, Citigroup (NYSE:C) fell under $1 a share and has gained nearly 400% since then.

Today, just 14 companies pass Templeton's test of trading below $1 a share on the NYSE. These are companies trading at the point of maximum pessimism.

To duplicate Templeton's strategy, buy all 14 and then wait. Templeton usually gave a stock up to six years to deliver results. If it hadn't moved up much after six years, he would sell.

Reference:

Here is the article. 

Sir John Templeton - A value investor, Yale graduate

Sir John Templeton

To obtain specific advice we can follow, we can turn to Sir John Templeton, the great investor who advises us to "invest at the point of maximum pessimism."

Templeton was a noted value investor who began his career in 1936 with Fenner & Beane, one of the firms that would eventually become part of Merrill Lynch. Stocks were not popular investments in 1936, a time when the world was finally showing signs of recovering from the Great Depression. But Templeton was confident the market would recover and left Fenner & Beane to establish his own firm in 1937.

His confidence in the markets came from his time studying at Yale as an undergrad. Templeton had grown up poor, but many of his peers at the Ivy League school often came from wealthy families. Looking back at that time late in life, Templeton attributed his success in the markets to his observation that stock market investments funded the lifestyles of the wealthy students he met. He also thought of a way to outperform his peers:

"In Tennessee I didn't meet anybody who owned a share of anything. At Yale there were hundreds of boys from wealthy families, but not a single one who was investing outside one nation. I thought that was just not sensible. Surely they'd get better results if they searched everywhere rather than limiting their search to one country."

Templeton delivered large returns by applying his global investment strategy to international markets. As his firm grew in size, he turned his attention to mutual funds which offer economies of scale to investment managers. It can be less expensive to manage a mutual fund than it is to maintain thousands of individual accounts. His oldest fund, the Templeton Growth Fund, recorded an average annual gain of 13.8% while Sir John was involved in the operation from 1954 to 2004. The S&P 500 delivered an average annual return of 11.1% over that same time.

Reference

Here is the article. 

How To Invest $1,400 (Or Less) At The Point Of Maximum Pessimism

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To obtain specific advice we can follow, we can turn to Sir John Templeton, the great investor who advises us to "invest at the point of maximum pessimism."

How to Pinpoint 'Maximum Pessimism'

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Few investment techniques offer better odds than buying world-leading companies when they are very out of favor. That is when they sell at the best entry points.

How, though, can investors know the "point of maximum pessimism" has likely been reached?

Typically, the shares will be making new 52-week or even multiyear absolute lows. Income-producing shares will have what Jim Cramer calls "accidental high yields." Their current yields become historically high simply because the stock price gets really low.

Night follows day. Bad times lead back to better ones. Low oil prices give way to higher ones. SLB is No. 1 in its industry, carries Value Line's A++ financial strength rating and is guaranteed to be around for the next positive cycle.

He said it in 1987 and in 2008 — now he’s saying it again: You’ll never see better bargains in the stock market 85

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The time to buy is “when there’s maximum pessimism.”

‘once in a lifetime’ chance to buy in ’87 and again in 2008, but I do really think this is an opportunity to take advantage of the volatility, and take advantage of the market,”

Yield gap between risky corporate debt and investment grade sinks to 12-year low

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Currently, there are only 60 basis points, or 0.60 percentage points, that separate BBB-rated corporate bonds, those on the edge of “junk,” from the highest rung of BB-rated bonds from the high-yield category, according to Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s global investment committee.

How to work on fear with faith?

March 29, 2020

Introduction

It is such experience for me to go through market swing in March, and I did not have any panic sales. I also start to work on Christian faith, and I like to look into the topic called fear with faith. Should I perform better since I have fear with Christian faith.

How to work on my wardrobe?

March 29, 2020

Introduction

It is so hard for me to go over so many clothes I have purchased last 10 years in Canada. I like to spend time to learn from youtube.com how to organize the closet, and think about those clothing cost over $6,000 dollars again. How to invest money on something else instead of clothing purchase?

Ideas to work on wardrobe

I will add more ideas here later.

Rush to learn how to stay healthy in Vancouver office

March 29, 2020

Introduction

I like to take another two days vacation on March 30, 31, and I like to spend time to learn 10 tips how to stay healthy to work in the office. Coronavirus is such a big concern for every one, and also I have to take some time to understand how to share my knowledge about virus, and tips to stay healthy as well.

10 ideas to work on

I like to find something to read and then figure out what to do next step.

What Coronavirus Symptoms Look Like, Day By Day

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After being exposed to the virus that causes COVID-19, it can take as few as two and as many as 14 days for symptoms to develop. Cases range from mild to critical. The average timeline from the first symptom to recovery is about 17 days, but some cases are fatal. Here's what it looks like to develop COVID-19, day by day.

Boosting Your Immune System Against Coronavirus | NBC News NOW

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ER Doctor Explains What To Do If You Start Showing Coronavirus Symptoms | All In | MSNBC

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This Is the Greatest Dislocation in Credit Since 2008: Bruce Richards

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Mar.26 -- Bruce Richards, Marathon Asset Management's chairman and chief executive officer, talks about stress in credit markets, how a federal stimulus bill could impact the market and Federal Reserve monetary policy. He speaks during an interview with Bloomberg's Vonnie Quinn on "Bloomberg Markets."

How The U.S. Fell Dangerously Behind In Coronavirus Testing

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The deadly coronavirus pandemic has stopped the world in its tracks, and exposed a weak spot in the United States’ preparedness for a public health emergency. Experts say aggressive diagnostic testing is essential in order to learn where and how an epidemic spreads. But in the critical first weeks of the outbreak in the U.S., one problem after another prevented doctors, clinics, and labs around the country from testing enough people. Patients in America were being sent home as hospitals rationed their test supply, while other countries like South Korea found a way to test hundreds of thousands of people quickly. Now, the U.S. is months behind in understanding the true scope of the virus. Testing capacity is finally ramping up, but is it too late?

The Worst Economic Collapse In History Is Starting Now: Be Prepared

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70% revenue is off;

The worst economic collapse in history is on its way. Be Prepared This is a chart of the 2008 Financial Crisis. Over the course of 517 days, The stock market dropped by more than 56%, millions of people lost their jobs… their homes… and their life savings. It was the worst time for the global economy since the great depression. And this is the 2020 Economic Collapse…so far… Over the course of just 21 days, the market has dropped by roughly 20%, the world has seemingly shut down, and we just might be on the worst economic trajectory in history. So how did we get here…and what could we expect going forward. Well lets start off with the first part. The first thing is that…as most of you know, there is a global illness going around that many people are worried about. And from my previous videos, you might know that my position on this is that if you get the disease, you will almost certainly be fine. But it is disproportionately bad for the elderly, and those with underlying health conditions such as myself. So its good to be cautious on a social level, but also there isn’t need for you to panic on an individual level. Initially when the disease had its first outbreak in China, it caused the Chinese Government to shutdown its manufacturing sector in order to help prevent the spread of the virus. Now, that wouldn’t be a problem…if 1/3 of all products in the world weren’t made in China. You see, China is the global supply chain of the world, so when China experiences delays in production, the entire worlds economy experiences delays as well. Now I made a whole video on why this is…. which you can check out on my channel… but I won’t dive into that in detail here… So, because of this supply chain slowdown, we have seen many large companies experience a slowdown in their sales and revenue. And this makes sense, because if you don’t have your product to sell, then you can’t make any money. And here’s an example. The car industry is very dependent on tools, die, and machinery in order to manufacture their cars. But each on of these industries is experiencing 1 to 3 month delays because of the shutdown of the manufacturing sector. This means that car companies will not be able to launch their new annual vehicles on time, therefore missing out on billions of dollars worth of sales. And also, because people are being asked to stay inside, be cautious, and work from home if possible, we have seen up to an 80% drop in automotive sales in some countries like china. And this effect keeps trickling down. If the Car companies are seeing a drop in sales and revenue, then so will its suppliers. And if the suppliers see a drop in revenue, so will the raw industries that work with suppliers. And this effect radiates to all other companies that are connected to the automotive industry. And what happens when a company sees a drop in sales or revenue? Well, we tend to see things like layoffs, or even bankruptcies. This would lead to a higher unemployment rate which would lead to less purchases being made by consumers, which would lead to less sales being made by businesses. And the cycle continues until the economy hits a low point like the great recession or the great depression. And keep in mind, this is just the automotive industry. This drop in sales will apply to virtually every other industry in the world…except the toilet paper industry because that’s actually manufactured in a bunch of different countries around the world…yet sales have increased for some companies like KP tissue by almost 50%. So…there is no toilet paper shortage everyone…just a bunch of hoarders buying 100 rolls at a time.

Seven mistakes I make as an investor from May 2019 to March 28 2020

March 28, 2020

Introduction

It is hard than I expect to learn to be a long term investor. I took one week vacation from March 23 to March 27, and most of time I studied about market swings and every thing behind this swings. I definitely make mistakes an an investor. I like to find what are seven mistakes.

Seven mistakes

I like think about and see if I can find seven mistakes I made as a long term investor.

1. Hours I spent on studying are over hundreds of hours, but I wasted time to check balance and for those unrealized gains. What should I work on as a long term investor?
2. I have problems to deal with big loss on market swing, so I experienced something new like anxiety, panic sell etc; I should take a day off if I know there is big market swing, stay home and take some actions. 4 circuit break means 4 days not-peaceful-life mood;
3. I should be humble and find some community to support me as a long term investor;
4. I came cross a few opportunities to make profit, but I missed. So I will write down in item 5, 6, 7;
5. VAB.TO profit over $2000 in one day; I should sell all my bonds to take profit; 
6. I should pay attention to coronavirus when China had worst hit in Hubei province; pray and seek God for wisdom;
7. ...

Investing in the Energy Sector 101

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Chevron Reveals $75+ Billion Capital Distribution Plan

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Distribute between $75 billion and $80 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends, without relying on any increase in oil prices.

Adding nearly $2 billion in returns, mainly from cost reductions and improving margins.

No one worked on proofreading: deepwater -> deep water

Even at steady levels of $60 per barrel oil prices, it expects return on capital of greater than 10% by 2024, an improvement of more than 300 basis points. The company believes its focus to spend capital on lower-risk projects-including in the Permian Basin, Kazakhstan, and potential deep water projects in the Gulf of Mexico -  will allow it to return more to shareholders. 

8.4% dividend boost?

In January 2020, the company announced an 8.4% dividend boost, bringing the current dividend yield to approximately 5.3%. Combined with $5 billion in planned annual share repurchases, total shareholder yield comes to more than 7%. To maintain these returns, Chevron sees compound annual energy production growth of greater than 3% through 2024. Combined with this latest capital return plan, Chevron shareholders have a lot to look forward to going forward.

Chevron Shifts Gears as Pandemic Pummels Oil Prices

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美股赢家2020-03-27 道琼斯24%反弹后的抉择 Stock Market Technical Analysis

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These High-Yielding Energy Stocks Are Cutting Deeply to Preserve Their Dividends

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How Much Can Chevron Stock Gain Once The Coronavirus Spread Is Contained?

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Here’s why corporate debt investors may want to eye Ford’s downgrade into ‘junk’

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US treasury - corporate bond - Ford

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同样受益于美联储直接购买工具，美国投资级公司债和市政债的价格出现了明显回升，利率出现了明显下降。3月25日，美国投资级公司债ETF大幅上涨4.79%，而美国市政债ETF则上涨了3.54%。

一些评级较低的公司在市场上的借款利率在过去一周上涨了一倍多。这些被评级机构陆续降级的公司，包括了亨氏卡夫、西方石油、福特汽车等一大批企业。而且在投资者对于中长期国债仍然抱有谨慎态度。从3月23日到26日，美国10年期国债收益率从0.815%到0.798%，仅仅下降不足2个基点。

3月25日，1个月期和3个月期美国国债收益率均跌至负值。在3月26日亚洲交易时段，1个月期和3个月期美国国债收益率报价分别为，-0.046%和-0.056%。

美联储印出来的钱也没有别的地方可去，大家都在挤着去买被视为现金的短期美国国债。

根据彭博社(Bloomberg)编制的数据显示，美国陷入困境的“垃圾企业债”规模已飙升至9340亿美元，这几乎是一周前的两倍。


Case study: Ford corporate bond

疫情发展下去，越来越多的美国公司被下调评级，融资成本飙升的局面正在上述多个行业快速上演。最典型的就是西方石油公司和福特汽车。目前，西方石油公司股价已经从今年1月份高点45美元跌到了12美元，国际评级机构穆迪将该公司债券评级从Baa3下调至Ba1，比投资等级低一级。穆迪指出，若西方石油不立即着手减少超过70亿美元的债务，其现金流量指标将进一步受到压力。截至2019年底，其债务已达410亿美元。

同样，福特汽车也是如此。福特汽车公司(FordMotorCo.)目前是全球最大的发债机构之一，福特的公共债券和贷款总额约为958亿美元。3月26日标准普尔全球评级将福特信用评级从BBB-下调至BB+，也就是所谓的“垃圾级”。目前，福特公司的多个债券产品对外报价，在1美元兑75美分附近徘徊或低于75美分，几乎在甩卖。

一系列其它备受瞩目的降级事件，包括卡夫亨氏、梅西百货等著名公司被陆续降级。显然，美国的相当一批好公司的杠杆过高，在当前疫情需求下降，盈利下降，到期债务数额大，新发债券困难的情况下，债务违约的概率大幅飙升。

Fed Says It Will Buy Corporate Bond ETFs

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JNKSPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF

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JNK Fund Description

JNK tracks a market-weighted index of highly liquid, high-yield, US dollar-denominated corporate bonds.

JNK Factset Analytics Insight

JNK is a hugely popular, liquid, high-yield corporate bond fund. The ETF’s portfolio is one of the broadest in the segment, and the fund’s yield, duration, and credit risk tend to align with those of our benchmark. JNK charges a reasonable fee, but its tracking has been a bit sloppy at times, so investors may find the holding costs higher than advertised. The fund trades well, however, and has a huge asset base. The fund competes most directly with HYG, which is also extremely large and liquid.

Huge Weekly Inflows For Corporate Bond ETF

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It was another volatile week on Wall Street, as the S&P 500 sagged to a three-year low on Monday before rocketing up by 17.6% over the next three sessions, the best three-day stretch since the 1930s.

Yet, overall ETF flows didn't reflect all that activity. On net, a mere $2.8 billion flowed out of U.S.-listed ETFs during the week ending Thursday, March 26. That puts year-to-date inflows at $66.8 billion, still ahead of last year's $48.1 billion pace.

Huge Inflow For 'LQD'

While headline flows figures were rather tepid, individual ETFs saw a flurry of activity. The iShares iBoxx USD Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) had $5.2 billion of inflows this week, a sizable haul for the $35 billion fund. On Monday, the Federal Reserve announced a new facility that would purchase investment-grade corporate bond ETFs to help thaw strained credit markets. 

美银：若美联储开始购买公司债，则有4.5万亿美元债券符合资格

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规模超过9万亿美元的美国公司债市场

美国银行全球研究公司(Bank Of America Global Research)的美国投资级策略主管汉斯·米克尔森(Hans Mikkelsen)在周二发布的一份研究报告中表示，美联储可能会效仿欧洲央行的做法，将公司债添加到该行的资产购买清单中去，以便让金融市场的这个受损“角落”恢复正常状态。由于担心投资者即使是大公司也可能会债务违约，金融市场的流动性已经陷入冻结状态。

Facts to review

数十亿美元资金outflow - ETF 16% loss

随着公司债的价格受到打击，投资者已经从追踪公司债的共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)中撤出了数十亿美元资金。从今年年初到目前为止，追踪投资级公司债的交易所交易基金iShares iBoxx USD Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF已经累计下跌了16%左右，该基金遭遇了超过42亿美元的资金流出。相比之下，同期标普500指数下跌26%。

LQD - ETF 

price - March 5, 2020 - 135.34

           March 20, 2020 - 106.74

雪上加霜的是，政府债券的收益率也在本周有所上升，这是因为投资者纷纷抛售高流动性证券以筹集现金，导致以美国国债收益率为基准的公司债价格受损。

米克尔森表示：“目前的问题是，投资者似乎已经抛售了所有的资产，其中也包括美国国债，因此公司债价格面临着利差扩大和利率上升的双重打击。”

Mortgage Investors Cheer as Federal Reserve Restarts Purchases

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Explaining Quantitative Easing – QE

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• Quantitative easing is when a central bank purchases bank assets to increase liquidity in the financial market.
• The Fed buys MBS and Treasurys from banks by issuing credit. In effect, QE increases money supply.
• It was successful as an economic stimulus following the 2008 financial crisis.
• The Fed revived QE to respond to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

史无前例放水和刺激下，美股现在是熊市反弹还是牛市开始，六大指标帮您洞悉未来走势？

Here is the link.

内容提要： 1. 2万亿美元救助方案 史上最大规模刺激计划！ 2. 负收益率降临美国！ 宣告美国加入欧洲和日本的行列，“技术上”进入负收益率区间。 3. 标普、穆迪以十年来最快速度下调评级 投资者担忧违约浪潮将到来 4. 价格战暂停油价也无法摆脱颓势 5. 328万！美国初请失业人数达纪录高位的5倍 6. 由于疫情冲击，实物金供应面临中断，影响了实物金的交割流程。当下不少金矿停摆，黄金精炼厂关停，航空业中断，导致黄金市场的实物金无法进行交割，做多黄金期货的交易者倾向于持有合约到期后进行实物交割，黄金市场上甚至出现“现货逼仓”的现象。

Actionable Items

I started from the above video, ask myself what are new content in the video, start to search in baidu.com, and then read some Chinese articles first.

My research on this market swings leads me to learn more about corporate debt, how things works in bond and what causes bond loss of 16% of value in less than one month.

Is Disney A Better Bet Compared To Netflix After ~40% Decline?

Here is the article.

Since early February, Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) stock is down by about -38% compared to about -4% for Netflix, driven by the Coronavirus crisis. The media behemoth has had to close down its Theme Parks (which account for over 35% of total revenue) while also facing significant disruption to its TV and Studio operations. Last week, Disney noted that it would be issuing about $6 billion in debt to manage its liquidity, adding to its total borrowings of roughly $48 billion. Netflix, on the other hand, stands to benefit from such a crisis, as it is viewed as a “stay-at-home” stock, that could see traction as more people are confined to their homes, eschewing more public forms of entertainment.

Facts: 
Stock change since early February
-38% Disney
-4% Netflix

35% of total revenue - theme parks

news: 
$6 billion in debt to manage its liquidity -> 48 billion in debt

Actionable Items

Those analysis are very helpful for me to compare Netflix and Disney two stocks, in other words, 40x vs 8x stock last years.

Recession Coming! Economics 101 (HOW BAD WILL IT GET?)

Here is the link.

Why is this one different from the others? Let's talk Econ 101, about why a recession is coming and what factors will influence how bad it gets and how long it lasts. I'll also talk about the stock market and some tips for you to prepare, survive, AND thrive this recession!

Actionable Items

I just could not believe how good the presentation is. There is actual percentage of corporate debt data compared to last recession.

I like to watch again and take more notes in the following.

Do not ignore your landlord if you can't pay: Marcus Lemonis to small business owners

Here is the link.

Marcus Lemonis, 'The Profit' host and Camping World CEO, Eric Casaburi, CEVD Consulting founder, join CNBC's special coverage of the coronavirus pandemic to discuss how business owners can adapt during the difficult time.

How To Identify Early Symptoms Of COVID-19 | NBC News NOW

Here is the link. 

Can Major U.S. Airlines Survive The Coronavirus Outbreak?

Here is the link.

70% capacity - united airline 

60% - 

frequency, stopping flight

demand, health authorities

months of disruption 

58 billion in package - Cannot buy back stock, handout to CEO, equity share etc. 

down 84.5% travel to China 

ripple effect - olders are not advised to fly 

How airline reacts in the past? 

2001 - 15 billion bailout

2008 lost 5 billion dollars 

string attached, one month, two to three months - 

Actionable Items

I just bought 20 share air canada stock AC.TO. I could not afford to purchase more shares at this time. 

Can Major U.S. Airlines Survive The Coronavirus Outbreak?

Here is the link.

The golden age for airlines could be ending thanks to the spike in worldwide cases of COVID-19. A drop in crude prices would normally be a positive for airlines. However, border closings, event cancellations, and the potential for travelers to end up quarantined could cause a cascade of failures throughout the aviation industry. Now, major US airlines say they need a massive bailout from Congress to avoid laying off scores of workers.


15 billion bailout - 2001 911
2008 - $5.1 billion dollars

1% -> 10%

Boeing
Too big to fail

Cancel flights losing money, preserve ...

biggest export to the world - Boeing

United Airline - first Q losing money

2001 911 - 40,000 jobs laidoff

monthly disruption - but we do not how many months will it last.

Investors need to be comfortable with what we don't know: Michael Farr

March 27, 2020

Here is the link.

SPX 18% up in 3 days.
Dow up 13% this week

Dow's best week since 1938

Dow leaders WTD
Boeing  159.70 +68.09%
Home depot 190.56 +25.25%
Nike 83.24 +23.41%
American express 88.68 +19.64%
United Tech. 97.15 +17.71%

S&P leaders WTD
Boeing 159.70 +68.09%
Lincoln national 27.46 +60.96%
Discover financial 38.40  +52.08%
Union group 15.97 +51.23%
Royal caribbean 34.46 +44.73%

Nasdaq 100 leaders WTD
Western digital 42.39 +36.52%
American Airlines 13.92 +34.10%
United Airlines 32.11 +31.06%
Lam Research 241.00 +28.27%
Ross stores 81.56 +27.64%

S&P sector leaders WTD
Utilities 283.10 +17.68%
Industrials 498.02 +15.43%
Real estate 193.83 +15.41%
Energy 217.56 +12.18%
Financials 349.66 +11.84%

28 of 30 Dow stocks rise this week

Dow down 15%

S&P laggards YTD
Apache -80.97%
Norwegian cruise line -79.40%
Nobel energy -78.22%
Devon energy -75.51%
Diamondback energy -74.35%
United airlines -63.55%
American airlines -51.46%
Marriott intl. -47.93%
Expedia -44.69%
Fox corp, class A -39.28%

S&P Sector laggards YTD
Energy -52.34%
Financials -31.63%
Materials -27.87%
Industrials -27.57%
Discretionary -19.88%

Do not be emotional. Data driven, and bottom will be tested ...

Actionable items

I should think about buying some S&P sector laggards ETF next few months.

Crisis Investment Perspective

Here is the link.

Life can change in a New York minute, and it has. The world is going through a terrible experience right now. As President Trump has said we are at war with an invisible enemy. I would add it’s an enemy that can strike anyone, anywhere which makes it so unsettling. The coronavirus is upending lives and societies. The steps we are taking to combat it are harsh, isolating, and damaging psychologically, emotionally, and financially. Everyone is affected. Many Americans are losing their paychecks and jobs for an indeterminate amount of time. Some are in danger of losing their businesses. The cynic’s definition of a recession is when your neighbor loses her job. A depression is when you lose your job. Until we get a handle on the length and scope of COVID-19 we won’t be able to define its impact. This week’s guest comes from a family of investors who take the long view. He is third generation value investor Christopher Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager of Davis Advisors an independent investment management firm. Davis will provide some welcome perspective on how the firm has managed through crisis conditions for more than half a century.

24:56

Know your risk tolerance as an investor

• Understand your own risk tolerance
• Put to the test during market turmoil
• Are you an investor or a speculator?

The wall street journal - march 10, 2020

What Benjamin Graham would tell you to do now: Look in the mirror

By Jason Zweig

"Investor's primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices."

The speculator, one the other hand, cares mainly about "anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations."

If you'are an investor, "Price fluctuations have only one significant meaning...an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal."

Next week, ETF & Cryptocurrency review Matt hougan 

Web extra:

Davis: Building perspective - book recommended

Kessler: crisis impact - book recommended

Real Estate Billionaire Barrack Says Commercial Mortgages on Brink of Collapse

Here is the article.

Barrack Sees Commercial-Mortgage Collapse If Liquidity Crisis Isn't Addressed

Here is the link.

There's a mortgage REIT meltdown—Here's what's happening

Here is the link.

Predicting 3.4 million people filed for unemployment last week: Morgan Stanley's chief economist

Here is the link.

CNBC's Kelly Evans is joined by Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley to discuss the outlook for the U.S. economy amid the coronavirus pandemic. The odds of slipping into a recession are increasingly likely as the global coronavirus outbreak puts acute stress on the U.S. economy. That could be bad news for American workers, who may lose jobs by the millions in a downturn. For those workers who don’t receive severance pay, the financial impact could be especially devastating. “It’s really hard to predict how it’s going to play out,” said Wayne Outten, founder and chair of Outten & Golden, an employment law firm in New York, of the coronavirus fallout. “The ripple effect can be dramatic in so many different industries.” The coronavirus, which causes a disease officially known as COVID-19, has spread rapidly around the globe since it originated in China late last year. More than 169,000 people have been infected worldwide, and more than 6,500 have died. Financial markets have cratered. American life has come to a screeching halt, as schools and cultural institutions have closed, sports leagues have suspended their seasons, major events have been canceled and state officials have moved to ban large gatherings. Officials from major cities like New York have ordered bars and restaurants to close to limit community spread.


6:15/ 8:31
Zentner on the economy
Q2 numbers

• Drop of 30.1% in GDP
• Drop of 700,000 in March nonfarm payrolls
• Unemployment rate to average 12.8%

Ellen Zentner

Here is the article.

Ellen Zentner is the managing director and the Chief US Economist at Morgan Stanley.^[1] Zentner previously worked as a Senior Economist for the Texas State government, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., and Nomura Securities International.^[2][3]

CNBC interviews Bill Ackman's trades around his 'Hell is coming'

Here is the link.

Five Steps to Overcome Disappointment

Here is the link.

1. You have to learn to recognize it;
2. Know that it's common;
3. Don't panic
4. Don't dwell on the "What if"s
5. ...

The Three Primary Phases of Life

Here is the link.

1. Discovery phase - 20 to 40  years old
2. Productive phase - 40 to 60 years old
3. Wisdom phase - 60 or 65 years old 

You find your greatest mentor. 

Three Actions for Investing in Yourself

Here is the link.

1. Learning 
2. Listening
3. Looking 

How to Gain the Confidence to Design Your Future

Here is the link.

Money mastery - book written by Billy Epperhart

1. Learn to identify your values and priorities; 
2. Identify your purpose; 
3. Learn to ask for the things you desire

Spiritual discipline 

Three Characteristics of a Healthy Leader

Here is the link.

1. Confidence
2. Courageousness
3. Tenaciousness

Do not give up. Do not quit! Go through hardness. 

Seven Steps for Improvement as a Leader

Here is the link.

People do not care how much you know but how much you care

1. Do not do everything by yourself alone;
2. Learn to size up the job; 
3. Provide direction in writing; 
4. Select the right people; 
5. Establish a core dialog schedule;
6. Spend time in training;
7. Learn to use people wisely. 

The Three Foundations for Building Wealth

Here is the link.

Three foundations:

1. Learning to Live off of 80%  of your income;
2. Put 10% of your income towards Tithing 
3. 5% of income to invest in yourself; 5% invest by some one else. 

Learn to pay off debt; live on 70% of your income, instead of 80% of your income. Learn to give away 10% of your income to charity. 

Dead sea - so salty, something flowing out in your life; 10% of your income goes to church and other things. 

Give away time in your life. 

The Gorgeous Gigi Hadid's Ellen Debut!

Here is the link.

Paul Milligan - Charis Bible College Dir of Business School

Here is the link.

Andrew's Live Bible Study: Faith over Fear Series - Finances - Paul Milligan and Billy Epperhart

Here is the link.

Now is the time for the Body of Christ to shine in the midst of confusion and fear! That is why we are bringing together top Christian leaders, from business professionals to pastors, for a series of #FaithoverFear live streams that you don’t want to miss. Tonight, we will be discussing how to trust God with your finances no matter what impact the Coronavirus has on the economy. Tune in and be blessed!

Christian belief talk about Coronavirus

Christian should act differently. No anxiety.

We should show love of God. Look for places to serve, and less worry about virus.

Keep giving. We should show response to this emergency of health crisis.

Two women fight against the toilet paper. Fight over toilet paper. Which people have God's piece.

Be patient. God takes care of us.

Let us pray together.

Pray for him.

6:00/ 1:01:22
Paul Milligan

Business plan
3 months - unemployment - reconnect to the business - employee connects to the business - much more quick recovery

Sustainable - balance between those two things - bring economy back to online region by region

Use data to recover - 90 days a time

As a christian, there is no anxiety. Show the love of God, and show the chance to giving. Serve people, get your mind to serve other people.

Keep giving as God blesses you. Do not have money to give, serve others.

Individual level, act as a Christian - Be patience. God promises us to take us.

Pray for Trump and his team and his goal for Easter day to recover.

Cure becomes bigger than the problem. Contraction, recession. People are unemployed.

Special loan - 19:32
90 days to recover - loan - make those people employed

3-6 months sunshine economically.

24:00/
Should we invest right now?
These stuff on sale, asset are on sale now. Stocks are cheap right now.

Be patient. When the stock comes back.

401 K and IRA. Manager - risk level, most of 401 K goes down 20%, and 30% - 35% goes down.

Do not give out advice.