How to cut loss as a value investor? 价值投资者如何止损？

Here is the article.

Here are highlights:

1. Losers average losers（傻冒才在亏损股上摊低成本）
2. Risk aversion - 成本线下无比保守，因为本钱亏一分也肉痛。成本线下，打死也不卖。

不止损是有很严格的前提条件的：

1、必须是避开了各种价值陷阱；

2、所买的股票有足够安全边际；

3、所承担的只是价格波动的风险而非本金永久性丧失的风险。

Citibank

金融危机时花旗从55元跌至1元的过程中就深度套牢了无数盲目坚守的投资者。关键是要避开价值陷阱。所谓价值陷阱，指的是那些再便宜也不该买的股票，因为其持续恶化的基本面会使股票越跌越贵而不是越跌越便宜。

真假风险

风险有两种，一种是感受到的风险（Perceived Risk），另一种是真实的风险（Real Risk）。股票暴涨后，真实的风险上升，感受到的风险却在下降，在6000点股市最危险的时候大家感受到的都是歌舞升平；股票暴跌后，真实的风险下降，感受到的风险上升，在2000点股市相对低谷时人们感受到的却都是凄风苦雨。

Case study: Goldman Saches 

能否区分真假风险往往也体现了一家机构的文化和水平。1987年10月，美国股市一天狂泻23%，高盛的风险套利部门损失惨重，鲁宾微笑着对团队说，公司对你们充满信心，如果你们想加仓的话，那就去做吧。形成鲜明对比的是，其竞争对手Smith Barney 在黑色星期一之后解雇了套利部门所有员工。

其实，黑色星期一之后，暴露的风险很大，但是隐藏的风险不大；感受到的风险很大，但是真实的风险不大。能区分并利用这两种风险的不同，是成功投资的必要条件。

价格波动的风险和本金永久性丧失的风险

风险还可分为价格波动的风险和本金永久性丧失的风险。当市场在5000多点时，股价天天向上，风平浪静，价格波动的风险貌似不大，但本金永久性丧失的风险却巨大；当市场在2000点时，股价跌跌不休，波涛汹涌，价格波动的风险好像很大，其实本金永久性丧失的风险却已急剧缩小。

美国的VIX指数

美国的VIX指数，来衡量的就是市场的波动性，每次市场的底部伴随着的都是VIX的高点，也就是市场波动性最大的时候。为什么人们常常会在底部斩仓呢？就是因为市场底部往往也是市场波动最剧烈的时候，而大多数投资者承担股价波动风险的能力其实是很弱的，并且常常在市场底部把波动性风险混同为本金永久性丧失的风险。

对于管理他人资产的职业投资者来说，市场波动的风险却是实实在在的风险，并且在客户赎回或者风控强制止损时，就会转化为本金永久性丧失的风险。

Traps for value investors

1. 被技术进步淘汰的
2. 赢家通吃行业里的小公司
3. 分散的、重资产的夕阳产业
4. 景气顶点的周期股
5. 那些有会计欺诈的公司

这几类价值陷阱有个共性，那就是利润的不可持续性，因此，目前的便宜只是表象，基本面进一步恶化后就不便宜了。

各种成长陷阱

1. 估值过高】最常见的成长陷阱是过高估值（Overpay)--高估值的背后是高预期。
2. 技术路径踏空】成长股经常处于新兴产业中，而这些产业（例如太阳能、汽车电池、手机支付等）常有不同技术路径之争
3. 无利润增长】上一轮互联网泡沫，Profitless Growth大行其道，烧钱、送钱为手段来赚眼球。
4. 成长性破产】即使有利可图的业务，快速扩张时在固定资产、人员、存货、广告等多方面需要大量现金投入，因此现金流往往为负。
5. 盲目多元化】有些成长股为了达到资本市场预期的高增长率，什么赚钱做什么，随意进入新领域而陷入盲目多元化的陷阱。
6. 树大招风】要区别两种行业，一种是有门槛、有先发优势的，Success begets more success（成功导致更大的成功）；另一种是没门槛、后浪总把前浪打死在沙滩上的，Success begets more competition（成功招致更多的竞争）。
7. 新产品风险】成长股要成长，就必须不断推陈出新，然而新产品的投入成本是巨大的，相应的风险也是巨大的，而收益却是不确定的。
8. 寄生式增长】有些小企业的快速增长靠的是“傍大款”，例如，有的是为苹果间接提供零部件，有的是为中移动提供服务，在2010年的“中小盘结构性行情”中都鸡犬升天了，在2011又跌回原形。
9. 强弩之末】许多所谓的成长股其实已经过了其成长的黄金时期，却依然享有高估值，因为人们往往犯了过度外推（Over-extrapolation）的错误，误以为过去的高成长在未来仍可持续。
10. 会计造假】价值股也有这个陷阱，但是成长股中这个问题更普遍。一个是市场期望50%增长的成长股，另一个是市场期望10%增长的价值股，哪个更难做到？

Actionable Item

I like to google "本金永久性丧失的风险" and "价格波动的风险".

Dow's roller-coaster ride - 2020 Feb. 24 to March 6

April 4, 2020

Introduction

It is so important for me to keep learning. I google using keyword search: panic selling stocks, and then I came cross this article "When you sell during a panic you may miss the markets best days".

Roller-coaster ride

I documented the roller-coaster ride using my blogs. But this time I saw a better one in the above article.

I also like to find the blogs to document my loss or gain on those days. Let me find one or two blogs to show in the following.

March 16, 2020, SPX around 2300, almost lowest point last month.

Here is the blog.

Nightly News Full Broadcast (April 4th)

Here is the link.

原油抄底：期货 ETF 能源个股，选择哪个好？

Here is the link.

嘉年华邮轮 CCL：全方位分析，抄底之前必看！

Here is the link.

Jim Cramer: Boeing 'will run out of money' if it is not 'saved'

Here is the link.

Boeing offering buyouts as it projects recovery will take years

Here is the article.

历史上五次油价暴跌

Here is the article. I like to spend 10 minutes to read and take some notes.

Case study: 2014 crude oil price drop

Here is the article. 

2014年，油价面临下跌压力，产油国间坚持不减产，沙特也索性不再减产挺油价，而是增产抢占市场份额，油价随即暴跌，跌幅达三分之二。

然而，石油输出国组织恰恰是为了防止这种情况出现而建立的政府间组织，截至目前有14个国家，拥有全球探明石油储量的超过七成。

OPEC因此可以对全球石油供应，以及石油价格产生决定性影响。

2016年底，OPEC与以俄罗斯为主的11个非成员国，签订协议，共同减产。这些国家也被共同成为“OPEC+”。此次谈判破裂正是在“OPEC+”间发生的。

油价对于一些石油输出国而言是国民经济的命脉，比如委内瑞拉，在2014年油价暴跌后，经济崩溃，货币急剧贬值。

再次暴跌也增加了对国际多边机构失效的担忧。在中美贸易战中，世界贸易组织（WTO）被架空；在新冠肺炎疫情中，世界卫生组织（WHO）的应对能力被广泛质疑。

能源咨询公司Rapidan Energy创始人麦克纳利（Bob McNally）称，“俄罗斯拒绝支持紧急减产，将有效且致命地削弱OPEC+扮演稳定油价生产者的能力。”

石油价格战如何分析

Here are articles found by keyword: 石油价格战如何分析

投资建议 

当前低油价水平下，我们看好两条投资主线，一是不含石油开采业务的相关石油加工企业， 将受益于油价下降带来的盈利能力提升，推荐上海石化（600688.SZ）、恒力石化（600346.SH）； 二是看好下游加工行业如改性塑料、轮胎等细分领域的投资机会，推荐玲珑轮胎（601966.SH）、 赛轮轮胎（601058.SH）。 此外，继续推荐“C3 产能扩张+C2 产能布局”双引擎发展的卫星石化（002648.SZ）。

Buntzen lake Scotia RRSP portfolio

April 4, 2020

Introduction

It is time for me to give my Scotia RRSP a name, to remember my first hiking trip in 2010 two months after I landed Canada as a new immigrant, I like to use the name Buntzen lake, and I like to figure out how to make it long term success investment portfolio.

Case study

Right now, the market is lowest point, my Scotia Canada index fund has loss around $800 dollars; my US index fund has $100 dollars loss.

Actionable Items

I like to purchase more US index fund since the price is lowest last month last few years.

Bear market, 54 years old, competitive programmer learning style

April 4, 2020

Introduction

It is not easy 12 month as an investor, I like to write something about learning as an investor, a competitive programming learning style. I do like the life as a software programmer, I miss those time spending to work on Leetcode weekly contest, and also work on easy level Leetcode algorithms.

Learning style

I have more than 5 years blogging experience, but in my heart, I am still not to learn the importance of discipline. I learned that stock market euphoric and the feeling of those short time period around 2020 Chinese new year.

I like to document those one month using my Scotia US account, how I rushed to deposit US dollars from US bank and prepared to get into the stock market; I rushed and told myself to work on three weekends to sell those US dollars $2000/ week to purchase Canada dollars, and got into TFSA account.

I made all mistakes a beginner makes. Even though I am 54 year old, from 2001 to 2010 I invested on stock market but I did not spend time to learn and work on research.

I sold US dollars around 1.31 Canada dollar/ US dollar, and then got into TFSA account, purchased VFV.TO highest position last 10 years.

Greedy and fear

If I was a careful and prudential investor, then I should think carefully about coronavirus, and I will take time to work on my research on health. Always it is more important to stay healthy compared to investment.

Here is the blog to document my purchase of Canadian dollars.

Actionable Items

I do see challenges as a long term investor. I should have basic understanding US economy and global economy, and also I need to understand the history of industries like oil and energy sector.

I have to figure out how to read more news about economy and finance.

The secret to supermodel success?

Here is the link.

Vogue dubbed Gigi Hadid a "social media supermodel," so CNNMoney's Vanessa Yurkevich finds out how Instagram and hashtags are helping Hadid's burgeoning business.

Learn about short sale - option trading

April 4, 2020

Introduction

It is time for me to learn from a lot of investors on the market, and also try to find what I should be. Sometimes I found myself under pressure as an investor, and I was so surprised to learn that I do not have motivation to sell profit. Making money is so important as an investor, but I am lack of discipline and hard working.

Case study

I like to read about LF coffee in China, and how the company scandal and recently news.

Here is the article I read.

不要投机，不要做空

去年十月份，注意到了LK。我不看好他烧钱的商业模式，猜测他们有造假行为，同时也参考了神州租车的上市历史，我当时赌他IPO后股东套现下跌，所以我开始做空。价格19，做了5000股。十万的仓位挺重的，因为我本金只有三十万，然后还做空了其他的股票。这里我犯的几个错误：做空，新手做空，重仓做空。当时脑海里也闪念过，一些中概股IPO 半年后反倒有个上涨的小高潮，但是我怀着侥幸的心理，觉得长久看还是会跌，并且担心开跌之后借不到票。

Actionable Items

I do not like to take too much risk to buy option. I do like to invest US economy, and understand diversification, long term investor, and also understand how to do asset allocation, make sure that I will not buy high and sell low, panic selling, time the market. 

Failed Startups: Rethink Robotics

Here is the article.

Actionable items

I came cross the following content in Chinese, so I like to work on 10 minutes research on this startup called rethink robotics.

在2018年，硅谷的创业公司不少都经历了资金链紧张，甚至是关停业务。除了融资超过8亿美金，曾被硅谷投资人估值90亿美金的真骗局Theranos外，曾经由iRobotics创始人创立的另外一家协同机器人公司Rethink也在融资超过1亿5000万美金的情况下，关门大吉。而其他比较知名的关停的创业公司包括融资1亿美金的Airware，融资6200万美金的Shyp等等。

　　而直到2019年，这种状况也没有得到好转——被福特高价收购的共享面包车Chariot项目也已经宣布停止运营。

Case study: Recession hit in 2008

Here is the article.


2010·房“奴”的暗黑时刻：房产疯狂降价出售、压垮无数家庭

一时间，钱放在任何地方都亏。邹君说那个时候论坛上大家发帖用得最多的词是腰斩。

　　“我们买的股票从300多刀跌到150多刀，受不了赔着卖了，我表姐买了同样一只股，比我买的价位还高，一直跌到1刀也没卖，不知道那只股现在还在不在了。”网友在讨论帖上回忆道。

　　“我的老美同事6万多美元买的通用汽车股票归零了。”邹君说。通用汽车作为美国百年汽车老品牌也没能扛住10年一次的经济危机——从2007年的40美金每股跌到了2009年5月29日的75美分每股。同年6月1日通用汽车退市，人们连这个股票代码都找不到了。

一时间，钱放在任何地方都亏。邹君说那个时候论坛上大家发帖用得最多的词是腰斩。　　

除了房市和股市，人们的养老保险账户401K平均损失超过25%。

万千华人家庭里，吴京华和他造成的SiPort血案就是这一切悲惨的一个极端表现。

Case study: Coming housing crash 2020

April 4, 2020

Introduction

It is my short research about deferral payment of mortgage, and bank stock big swings. I like to read more about this topic and also start to put together some ideas to think about.

Case study

Here is the article I like to read about Silicon valley last 20 years.


Zillow and Redfin lag of market crash

Here are highlights;

1. 今年一月，湾区9郡县房屋中位数为73万美金，比12月下跌7%。从房屋出售数量来看，包含San Jose市的Santa Clara郡县在1月的销售数量比12月下降了29.9%, 比1年前下跌18.7%。
2. 那些2018年上半年房子买在高点的人，少说也亏了几十万了。
3. 2019年，硅谷的人们仍沉浸在最后那点热钱带来的狂欢中——公司排队上市，薪资一路上涨，房价依然高企
4. 房市的“崩盘” 在去年十二月到达了一个顶峰——房市进入冰冻期，不论多好的房子，都会被卡在市场上。

Case study: 1999 technology bubble

Here is the article.

在1999年，科技圈泡沫鼎盛时期，一共有546家公司申请IPO，其中117家科技公司在上市第一天股价增长超过100%，而最疯狂的VA Linux在上市第一天股价暴涨733%，Foundry Networks以及Cobaltnetworks均有首日增幅约500%的疯狂历史。

但经济危机一爆发，科技公司的股价瞬间崩塌——在1999年上市的公司中有63%的公司在2000年跌破了发行价。同年，纳斯达克指数从5000点狂泻66%，上市仅一年的VA Linux股价从最高点200多美金一股跌去约95%，仅剩8.49每股。亚马逊的股价从100多美元下跌到个位数；思科也从80美金跌到13美金，跌幅84%。而后20年，思科的股价也再没有回到鼎盛时期。

同时，科技新贵们接连宣布破产和倒闭——创立两年融资超过1亿6000万美金，刚上市股价就翻4倍的eToys宣告倒闭；曾经IPO当日从14美金一股攀升到75美金一股的网景还有曾经红极一时的Pet.com也都在这一年戏剧化地结束了运营。

case study: Priceline stock history

Here is the article.

I like to get some highlights and then review it carefully.

2000·扎堆的IPO是场噩梦：上市当日翻700%，一年后跌剩1%

“20年前，我就见识过这样热闹的路演场景。”《纽约客》编辑John Cassidy在Lyft上市后这样回忆道。

“20年前的今天，我坐在纽约东六街上的高级私人会所——大都会俱乐部里，观看了一场在线旅游订购网站Priceline高管们关于公司即将上市的群情激昂的演讲。”

那时候正处于上一轮互联网泡沫的高潮，房间站满了想要最后机会冲进市场的基金经理，股票分析师以及其他华尔街的大人物们。Priceline的CEO Richard S Braddock对着人群慷慨激昂地表示他的公司将有能力去彻底改革不光是旅游业，更是在线销售和金融服务。

几天后，Priceline上市并开始公开交易，起初16美金一股。投资人疯了一样购入大量Priceline股票，上市第一日股票就飙升到69美金一股，上涨约330%。

投资者们并没有停下来。三周后，Priceline股票超过150美金，市值飙升到200亿美金——而这个数字甚至比美国全部航空公司市值加起来还要高。

两年后，泡沫破裂，Priceline的股票仅仅剩下2美金一股，距离最高点仅剩不到2%。

可以说，2000年那次危机前后，科技股IPO全部都经历了暴涨和断崖式的下跌。

Gigi Hadid’s Complete Runway Evolution

Here is the link.

Looks aren't everything. Believe me, I'm a model. | Cameron Russell

Here is the link.

Cameron Russell admits she won "a genetic lottery": she's tall, pretty and an underwear model. But don't judge her by her looks. In this fearless talk, she takes a wry look at the industry that had her looking highly seductive at barely 16-years-old.

Why I stay indoor whole day?

April 4, 2020

I like to have a short break to watch a few talk shows, since I work on stock research and investment the whole day. I chose to stay indoor whole day to recover the red eye since I ran outdoor continuously a few days.

Also I need to figure out how to do a good research how to prevent choronavirus, since I chose to go back to work and share the office space with other people in my current job.

Kendall Jenner, Gigi Hadid, Ashley Graham, and Paloma Elsesser on Modeling & #MeToo | Vogue

Here is the link.

April's decline in oil demand will be 7x larger than biggest quarterly drop in 2008/09: IHS' Yergin

Here is the link.

Texas produces 40% oil US consumes.

Uber stock analysis - short sale by Jim Chanos

Here is the link.

48:00 - 53:00

Uber is not easy to scale, below minimum wage, and other factors.

These are body shops.

Grubhub stock analysis - short sale by Jim Chanos

Here is the link.

From 38:00 - 44:00 / 55:56, a few minutes analysis, body shop, why individual restaurant does not do itself?

Questrade research tool - VFV.TO ETF

April 4, 2020

Introduction

It is the first time I learn to use Questrade.com research tool to track my position VFV.TO.

Case study

Here is the summary of VFV.TO.

Can Airlines Recover From Coronavirus?

Here is the link.

3 Cruise Ship Stocks to WATCH in 2020!!

Here is the link.

Comment:

America will NOT bail out the cruise line industry.... by far, the MAIN THING that really matters when it comes to ANY Govt bailing out ANY Company..... is what country that company is registered in & thus what country they pay their corporate income taxes into. NONE of the cruise lines are American companies, and NONE of them pay any corporate income tax into America.... also, only about 10 to 12% of cruise line employees are American.

Revealing My #1 Airline BUY

Here is the link.

MY TOP 5 STOCKS For 2020

Here is the link.

To summarize: Microsoft, Apple, Berkshire, Air Canada, Facebook, UAL, LUV, Tesla.

Comparison between Apple and Microsoft this market swing

The presentation was very clear to viewers using an Excel sheet to compare Apple and Microsoft

% Fall, revenue, cost of revenue, Gross profit, cash, liabilities total, stock holder equity, C. Assets Vs C. Liabilities, T. Assets vs T. Liabilities, Gross Margin, Operating margin

% Fall Apple is 35%, Microsoft 30%

Apple iphone sales goes down

Microsoft revenue diversified - monthly subscription, people can access service online

WHY Did Warren Buffett SELL Delta?!?

Here is the link.

Case study: Delta airline 

Last five years buy back 10 billion dollars stock, but the cash on the balance sheet is less than 2 billion days.

Deferred revenue

Service not performed - prebooked flights
No longer valid - money back
Repay - all cancelled ticket

Delta does not have cash to pay back

This is not Delta specific, and this is entire industry.

Value investor and his insights

March 13 - April 4, 2020, Warren buffet changed his mind, sold airline stocks.

Is AAL Stock A Buy @ $9? American Airlines 200% Return?

Here is the link.

Why Airline Shares Are Falling Today

Here is the article.

Here are highlights:

1. Revenue is down $100 million per day
2. The U.S. government came through with $50 billion to support the industry last week
3. it was suspending more than 60% of total international capacity for the summer

James Chanos

Here is the wiki article. I like to spend 10 minutes to read.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold nearly $390 million worth of Delta and Southwest shares this week

Here is the link.

The sales come as the airline industry continues to endure heavy losses amid the coronavirus outbreak. Airlines have been forced to suspend routes, cancel flights, and ground planes as travel restrictions, border closures, and stay-at-home advisories lead to a near halt in air travel.

On Friday, Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in a memo to employees the airline was burning through more than $60 million every day as the crisis continues and that it had canceled about 115,000 flights for April, or 80% of its total schedule. Sunday saw just 38,000 passengers fly, compared with 600,000 on the last Sunday of March in 2019, he wrote.

Things I learned just now

Both airlines have said they plan to file for payroll grants under the federal coronavirus aid package, which will help pay workers. Under the terms of the grants, airlines will be prohibited from buying back stocks or paying dividends to shareholders.

Airlines receiving aid through the payroll grants, or in the form of loans, are also required to continue flying despite the low demand, as part of an effort to maintain supply chains and connectivity for essential travel. 

Watch CNBC's full interview with legendary short seller Jim Chanos

Here is the link.

'Huge Opportunity' Seen in Value Stocks: Research Affiliates CIO

Here is the link.

PGIM CEO Says Economic Shutdown Could Turn Into a Significant Credit Crisis

Here is the link.

Apr.03 -- David Hunt, president and chief executive officer at PGIM, talks about how the economic shutdown could turn into a credit crisis. But he also says there will be opportunities for investors "on the other side" of this. He speaks with Erik Schatzker on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."

Trump And Coronavirus Task Force Hold Briefing At White House | NBC News

Here is the link.

President Trump and the coronavirus task force give an update on the response effort from the White House.

Watch: Trump Holds Coronavirus Roundtable With Energy Sector CEOs | NBC News

Here is the link.

Watch as President Trump holds a coronavirus roundtable with energy sector CEOs at the White House.

Victoria portfolio - One week oil stock performance

April 2, 2020

Introduction

It is so exciting news to write. I invested $2000 dollars on Canada oil stocks, and then today I saw 25% increase.

Case study

It is so exciting to see that oil price went up quickly in less than one week. I did purchase March 27 last Friday while I took one week vacation.

I purchased around $1900 dollars Canada oil stocks last Friday, now the market change is over $450 dollars.

My purchase March 27 2020

Here is the blog to document my purchase of distressed oil stocks, March 27 2020.

Reference:


Oil surges 13% on reports that OPEC and allies are working on a deal to cut production amid the coronavirus pandemic, here is the article. 

Gov. Andrew Cuomo speaks on coronavirus response as cases surge in New York - 4/1/2020

Here is the link.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo holds a news conference on the coronavirus outbreak and the state's response to the pandemic. As of Tuesday, coronavirus cases in New York state jumped to 75,795 with 1,550 deaths across the state, said Cuomo.

CNBC's full interview with Citi CEO Michael Corbat on handling coronavirus crisis

Here is the link.

'This is a global slowdown... we have not seen since the Great Depression,' says portfolio manager

Here is the link.

Satori Fund Founder & Portfolio Manager Dan Niles joins Yahoo Finance’s Zack Guzman to break down what investors should be looking for in markets as stocks continue to face pressure from COVID-19.

Morgan Stanley CEO on employee job security, Fed policy

Here is the link.

Vanguard Financials ETF VFH Overview

Here is the page I study for 10 minutes.

What I really like is the product feature to compare other ETF. From the above diagram, it is easy to tell that VOO and SPY are added to be compared.

Actionable Items

Canada bank small one has over 50% loss in Calgary, south west bank. I do think that small bank may have bankruptcy risk. It is better to purchase biggest one, or try financial ETF.

The traders' Q2 playbook

Here is the link.

S&P's worst day in 2 weeks - stocks plunge to start Q2

SPDR S&P Bank (KBE)
25.16 - down from 49 dollorrs , -46.80%

How to Work Out Like a Victoria's Secret Model at the Gym | Harper's BAZAAR

Here is the link.

If you're looking to remix your workout routine, try borrowing some moves straight from a Victoria's Secret model. Here, rising runway star Roosmarijn de Kok and her trainer, Joe Holder, share some of their most effective exercises.

Coronavirus & the Stock Market (MAKE MONEY DURING A CRISIS)

Here is the link.

Let’s talk about how to take advantage of the coronavirus and its impact on the stock markets. We are in for a wild ride, so here are my thoughts on how to navigate your investing as the coronavirus situation plays out.

Do not panic sale.

Do not pick perfect bottom! Do not wait too long to buy.

Have a plan. Hindsight is not real! Dollar cost average is also a good idea.


From unshakable truth

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio

Here is the link.

S&P Oil & Gas Expl & Prod SPDR (XOP)

Here is the link.

XOPSPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF

Here is the link.

Unbelievable, March 27 last Friday one day XOP ETF gained 400%, and April 1, 2020 loss 75% loss.

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Overview

Here is the article.

With 6 ETFs traded in the U.S. markets, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETFs gather total assets under management of $1.44B. The average expense ratio is 0.67%. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETFs can be found in the following asset classes:

• Equity

The largest Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF is the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF XOP with $1.32B in assets. In the last trailing year, the best performing Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF was the DRIP at 502.42%. The most-recent ETF launched in the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space was the Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 3X Shares DRIP in 05/28/15.

stocks tumble, these names have best chance of survival

Here is the article.

Here are highlights:

1. Crude briefly cracked below $20 on Monday — taking it to levels not seen since early 2002. Energy stocks have been dragged along with the sector tanking almost 53% this year and trading near levels it last hit in early 2004.
2. 
   

Here’s Why Chevron Stock Looks Ready for a Long-Term Rebound

Here is the article.

Here are highlights:

1. CVX stock has fallen 35% in the last month;
2. Four factors are likely to push the stock higher within the next six months;
3. US shale oil producers out of business - it is happening
4. Oil prices should bottom when shale producers begin to cut their production

How to time the market when SPX drops 20% or more?

April 1, 2020

Introduction

It is creative world to explore as an investor. There are so many things to learn. Today I like to explore the topic like how to act and set up my own guidelines as an investor. 

Case study

I like to get some content from this article, and then look into topics I like to further explore. 

It's also helpful to implement some guidelines to help you know when to act. Two reasonable times I've identified to opportunistically invest your spare cash are at 20% and 30% market drops.

Why 20% and 30% drops? Because on average, the market falls 20% about once every four years, while we see a 30% drop about once a decade. That means they're both frequent and meaningful enough to make them worth setting some cash aside for.

For instance, the S&P 500 fell about 20% from early October to December 24, 2018, while the NASDAQ Composite fell even further:

during the Great Recession, the S&P 500 first fell 20% from October 2007 to July 2008. But unlike the more recent bounce-back in 2018-2019, the market fell another 45% before finally reaching bottom on March 9, 2009. In all, the S&P 500 lost almost 60% of its value from October 2007 to March 2009.

Keeping half of your market-crash money ready to deploy in a deeper market correction can serve two purposes. The first and most obvious is that it gives you the chance to take advantage of an even more deeply discounted stock market and enjoy bigger long-term gains when things inevitably improve. The second purpose may be even more important: It can help you manage your emotions and avoid falling into the trap of selling because you think you need to do something.

What should you do if the market falls more than 30%? Using history as our guide, we can predict that it probably will fall by 40% sometime in the next 30 or 40 years. At some point during the next century, it's likely going to once again lose half or more of its value, too. Personally, I don't keep extra cash set aside for these occurrences because they happen so rarely. You'll lose out more in opportunity cost -- how much the market goes up before it falls -- to make it worthwhile.

However, if your concern is managing your emotions and having a plan to help keep you from selling, it might be worth setting aside a small amount of cash to deploy at 40% or even 50% declines. Again, I wouldn't suggest it be a very large amount; the market will likely be triple in value from today's prices before we see another 50% decline.

Actionable Items

How to Prepare for a Recession

Here is the article.

Here are highlights:

1. GDP (gross domestic product) lasting two consecutive quarters or longer
2.  On a technical basis, the economy returned to growth in the second half of 2009, and the unemployment rate peaked four months later.
3. Unemployment would remain at or above 9% for two more years and didn't return to the prerecession rate of 5% or below September of 2015. That's six years of high unemployment.
4. Item 3, more explanation: even though the recession was technically over, a slow jobs recovery meant millions of Americans continued to struggle mightily.
5. Unfortunately, one of the biggest mistakes people make during a recession is to sell their stocks or stock-based mutual funds, often after the market has already fallen sharply, expecting it to fall even more. Sadly, this rarely results in savvy "buying at the bottom" for most people. More often, the stock market starts to recover before people are ready to reinvest, resulting in them missing out on the market's recovery.
6. Owning bonds is a great way to hedge your risk from that volatility for the part of your portfolio you may need to sell in the next few years.

Are You Ready to Buy Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and NCL?

Here is the article.


Here are highlights:

1. The next few quarters will be brutal for the industry. You can't make money if you're not generating any revenue.
2. Analysts feel that Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and NCL have at least five to six months of liquidity available before they need to raise capital to stay afloat.
3. Things look grim, and investors attracted to the beefy payouts may get burned. 
4. Royal Caribbean earning as little as $1.33 a share in 2021 after losing more than $3 a share this year. 
5. These stocks would now have to more than triple to get back their peaks, and under kinder climates they may be able to beat the market in the next couple of years on the way there.
6. The bar has also never been lower to come through with market-thumping returns.  

Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Lines Not Part of $2 Trillion Bailout

Here is the article.

Here are highlights showing what I learn from reading:

1. Banks will want a piece of the pie
2. All three companies were profitable in 2019. 
3. None of the cruise lines, however, are registered as U.S. businesses, nor are the majority of their employees Americans.

3 Reasons Norwegian Cruise Line Stock Should Outperform Carnival and Royal Caribbean

Here is the article on March 31, 2020.

Here are highlights:

1. Norwegian Cruise Line is the smallest;
2. NCLH is an enterprise value of $9.4 billion, less half of top two cruise lines;
3. Royal Caribbean commanded a yield of 9% at Friday's close, and industry leader Carnival is turning heads with its 13.9% yield. 
4. 
   

Valley's low-wage employees unable to work at home, face rent challenges

Here is the article.

Among workers who earn $100,000 or more annually, 51.7% say they can do their jobs from home. At the same time, remote work is possible for just 15.3% of those who earn $25,000 per year or less, said Chris Salviati, a housing economist for Apartment List and author of the study.

Eviction delays

On March 24, Ducey issued an executive order delaying the enforcement of eviction for renters impacted by COVID-19. The order applies to renters who are COVID-19 quarantined or facing economic hardship as a result of the pandemic. It will remain in effect for 120 days.

Ducey's action aligns with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's March 18 suspension of all evictions for HUD-financed properties. Also on that day, the Federal Housing Finance Agency directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to suspend foreclosures and evictions for at least 60 days as a result of the coronavirus national emergency.

Actionable Items

Ask questions: 

Largest Cruise Line Companies

Here is the article.

I like to read at least a few hours before I decide to purchase 10 shares of cruiseline stocks.

Today biggest loser stocks are crusieline.

April 1, 2020 - a day off after 7 day vacation

April 1, 2020

Introduction

It is hard for me to determine what I should do every day after 7 days vacation. I decided to take one day off and then continue to study stock market and also learn more about coronavirus.

A day off

I need to come out some plan for whole day. I like to work on something important in terms of investment, finance, book keeping, and also I need to go out and run 4 miles some time later.

Why The U.S. Probably Won’t Run Out Of Food During Coronavirus

Here is the link.

More than 200,000 requests for mortgage deferrals sent to Canadian banks in wake of COVID-19 pandemic

Here is the article.

Today, the Canadian Bankers Association revealed that more than 213,000 requests have poured into the six biggest chartered banks.

BNN Bloomberg has reported that this accounts for about 4.5 percent of all of their home mortgages.

Case study: tips to solve binary search tree shared by the interviewee

The interviewee had super good performance. He solved two algorithms, and one with optimal solution idea. He also shared with me his idea how to write bug free code for search in rotated sorted array. I do believe that he makes good suggestion.

1. Check loop invariant
2. Move the array with one node, two nodes, or three nodes outside while loop, as long as it is working. The good about solution is easy for you to check all edge cases.

Case study: check completeness of binary tree

Here is the gist.

The interviewee wrote the excellent idea to figure out the completeness of binary tree. His idea is to calculate total nodes in the binary tree first, and then assign each node with a value based on the structure of tree, the root node has value 0, and left child is parent node's value * 2 + 1, right child is parent node's value * 2 + 2. And then if it is a complete binary tree, all nodes value should be in the range of [0, totalNodes - 1]. Apply preorder travesal, and check if node's value is smaller than total nodes.

Case study: search in rotated sorted array

March 31, 2020

Here is the gist.

Canada's big banks have already fielded 213,000 requests for mortgage deferrals under coronavirus-relief plan

Here is the link.

GE Aviation will layoff 10 percent of U.S. workforce, furlough staff in maintenance, repair and overhaul

Here is the link.

GE Aviation will layoff 10 percent of U.S. workforce, furlough staff in maintenance, repair and overhaul

Here is the link.

'Prices are not going to go higher': COVID-19 expected to put chill on spring housing market

Here is the article.

BBB级息差 - one term a time - Third blog

Here is the article. 

Here is the article I like to take some notes.

这是2018年资本市场上的一个热门话题。一旦不可避免的经济放缓袭来，一大批投资级别范围内评级最低的公司债券，就可能身处降级为高收益债券的边缘，这是对垃圾债券的一种委婉表达。

公司财务人员及银行家都是机会主义者。当投资者需求强劲时，他们便将新债券推向市场，而在需求疲软时则有所保留。

THE BOND-MARKET PANIC THAT WASN’T

Here is the article.

BBB级息差 - one term a time - Second blog

Here is the article I like to take some notes.


Dudley point out in the following:

第二个长期风险是美国公司债台高筑，尤其是BBB评级和高收益债评级的公司。最近几年，美国企业充分利用低利率的市场环境和公司债信用利差走低带来的好处扩大杠杆比率，信用质量不断下行。很多大公司管理层的思维逻辑很简单，借更多的钱，回购更多的股票。结果导致股票的流通量减少，每股收益因此增加，股价得到提升。

在经济持续扩张期间，这种做法会带来极度舒适。但是正如Ed McKelvey和我在二十年前所写到的，经济周期的长期化也有不好的一面。如果经济衰退发生的次数变得比以前少，当衰退最终到来时所产生的负面影响也会变大，这就不可避免地给金融市场带来更大的冲击。最近几次经济衰退，诸如2000-2001年期间的高科技股泡沫破裂以及2007-2009年期间的金融危机给金融体系带来的不稳定程度超过了以往的经济下行期间。

Fact No. 1

BBB级公司债在美国全部投资级公司债余额中的占比自2008年经济危机以来一路上扬，如今为55%。

BBB rating is dangerous

在投资级债券中BBB级的地位最低，距离被踢出投资级债券的圈子仅一步之遥。即便如此，那又怎样？失去投资级债券的资格并落到高收益债的圈子里好比一夜回到解放前，发行人的融资成本会升高，合格买家的数量也会减少。

Case study

BBB级公司债是投资级债券中的最低档，一家公司的信用评级需要至少两家评级机构均作出降级决定后才会被降至高收益债级别，也就是BB+或以下的级别，这种情况一旦发生，专门投资某类债券指数的投资者会由于投资范围无法覆盖垃圾债而被迫抛掉被降级的公司债。如果某一只债券只有两家评级机构给予评级，但只有一家机构建议降级至垃圾债级别，那么某些限制条款的存在可能也会导致被迫清仓情况的发生。”