Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Google AI: About Google's approach to research publication

 Here is the article. 

My notes:

  1. It ignored too much relevant research — for example, it talked about the environmental impact of large models, but disregarded subsequent research showing much greater efficiencies.  Similarly, it raised concerns about bias in language models, but didn’t take into account recent research to mitigate these issues.  We acknowledge that the authors were extremely disappointed with the decision that Megan and I ultimately made, especially as they’d already submitted the paper. 
  2. We accept and respect her decision to resign from Google.
  3. critical DEI programs - Google it!

About Google's approach to research publication


I understand the concern over Timnit Gebru’s resignation from Google.  She’s done a great deal

to move the field forward with her research.  I wanted to share the email I sent to Google Research

and some thoughts on our research process.


Here’s the email I sent to the Google Research team on Dec. 3, 2020:


Hi everyone,


I’m sure many of you have seen that Timnit Gebru is no longer working at Google.

This is a difficult moment, especially given the important research topics she was

involved in, and how deeply we care about responsible AI research as an org and

as a company.


Because there’s been a lot of speculation and misunderstanding on social media,

I wanted to share more context about how this came to pass, and assure you we’re

here to support you as you continue the research you’re all engaged in.


Timnit co-authored a paper with four fellow Googlers as well as some external

collaborators that needed to go through our review process (as is the case with

all externally submitted papers).  We’ve approved dozens of papers that Timnit

and/or the other Googlers have authored and then published, but as you know,

papers often require changes during the internal review process (or are even

deemed unsuitable for submission).  Unfortunately, this particular paper was

only shared with a day’s notice before its deadline — we require two weeks

for this sort of review — and then instead of awaiting reviewer feedback, it was

approved for submission and submitted.


A cross functional team then reviewed the paper as part of our regular process

and the authors were informed that it didn’t meet our bar for publication and were

given feedback about why.  It ignored too much relevant research — for example,

it talked about the environmental impact of large models, but disregarded subsequent

research showing much greater efficiencies.  Similarly, it raised concerns about bias

in language models, but didn’t take into account recent research to mitigate these

issues.  We acknowledge that the authors were extremely disappointed with the

decision that Megan and I ultimately made, especially as they’d already submitted

the paper. 


Timnit responded with an email requiring that a number of conditions be met in

order for her to continue working at Google, including revealing the identities of

every person who Megan and I had spoken to and consulted as part of the review

of the paper and the exact feedback.  Timnit wrote that if we didn’t meet these

demands, she would leave Google and work on an end date.  We accept and

respect her decision to resign from Google.


Given Timnit's role as a respected researcher and a manager in our Ethical AI team,

I feel badly that Timnit has gotten to a place where she feels this way about the work

we’re doing.  I also feel badly that hundreds of you received an email just this week

from Timnit telling you to stop work on critical DEI programs.  Please don’t.  I

understand the frustration about the pace of progress, but we have important work

ahead and we need to keep at it.


I know we all genuinely share Timnit’s passion to make AI more equitable and

inclusive.  No doubt, wherever she goes after Google, she’ll do great work and

I look forward to reading her papers and seeing what she accomplishes.


Thank you for reading and for all the important work you continue to do. 


-Jeff


I’ve also received questions about our research and review process, so I wanted to share

more here.  I'm going to be talking with our research teams, especially those on the Ethical

AI team and our many other teams focused on responsible AI, so they know that we strongly

support these important streams of research.  And to be clear, we are deeply committed to

continuing our research on topics that are of particular importance to individual and intellectual

diversity  -- from unfair social and technical bias in ML models, to the paucity of representative

training data, to involving social context in AI systems.  That work is critical and I want our

research programs to deliver more work on these topics -- not less.


In my email above, I detailed some of what happened with this particular paper.  But let me

give a better sense of the overall research review process.  It’s more than just a single

approver or immediate research peers; it’s a process where we engage a wide range of

researchers, social scientists, ethicists, policy & privacy advisors, and human rights specialists

from across Research and Google overall.  These reviewers ensure that, for example, the

research we publish paints a full enough picture and takes into account the latest relevant

research we’re aware of, and of course that it adheres to our AI Principles.


Those research review processes have helped improve many of our publications and research

applications. While more than 1,000 projects each year turn into published papers, there are

also many that don’t end up in a publication.  That’s okay, and we can still carry forward

constructive parts of a project to inform future work.  There are many ways we share our research;

e.g. publishing a paper, open-sourcing code or models or data or colabs, creating demos, working

directly on products, etc. 


This paper surveyed valid concerns with large language models, and in fact many teams at Google

are actively working on these issues. We’re engaging the authors to ensure their input informs the

work we’re doing, and I’m confident it will have a positive impact on many of our research and

product efforts.


But the paper itself had some important gaps that prevented us from being comfortable putting

Google affiliation on it.  For example, it didn’t include important findings on how models can be

made more efficient and actually reduce overall environmental impact, and it didn’t take into account

some recent work at Google and elsewhere on mitigating bias in language models.   Highlighting

risks without pointing out methods for researchers and developers to understand and mitigate those

risks misses the mark on helping with these problems.  As always, feedback on paper drafts generally

makes them stronger when they ultimately appear.


We have a strong track record of publishing work that challenges the status quo -- for example,

we’ve had more than 200 publications focused on responsible AI development in the last year alone. 

Just a few examples of research we’re engaged in that tackles challenging issues:


I’m proud of the way Google Research provides the flexibility and resources to explore many avenues

of research.  Sometimes those avenues run perpendicular to one another.  This is by design.  The

exchange of diverse perspectives, even contradictory ones, is good for science and good for society. 

It’s also good for Google.  That exchange has enabled us not only to tackle ambitious problems, but

to do so responsibly.


Our aim is to rival peer-reviewed journals in terms of the rigor and thoughtfulness in how we review

research before publication.  To give a sense of that rigor, this blog post captures some of the detail

in one facet of review, which is when a research topic has broad societal implications and requires

particular AI Principles review -- though it isn’t the full story of how we evaluate all of our research,

it gives a sense of the detail involved: https://blog.google/technology/ai/update-work-ai-responsible-innovation/


We’re actively working on improving our paper review processes, because we know that too many

checks and balances can become cumbersome.  We will always prioritize ensuring our research

is responsible and high-quality, but we’re working to make the process as streamlined as we can

so it’s more of a pleasure doing research here.


A final, important note -- we evaluate the substance of research separately from who’s doing it.  But

to ensure our research reflects a fuller breadth of global experiences and perspectives in the first

place, we’re also committed to making sure Google Research is a place where every Googler can

do their best work.  We’re pushing hard on our efforts to improve representation and inclusiveness

across Google Research, because we know this will lead to better research and a better experience

for everyone here.

Jeffery Dean: Google AI

Here is the wiki article. 

Here is the article about AI scientist and her resignation. 

The projects Dean has worked on include:

  • Spanner, a scalable, multi-version, globally distributed, and synchronously replicated database
  • Some of the production system design and statistical machine translation system for Google Translate
  • BigTable, a large-scale semi-structured storage system[3]
  • MapReduce, a system for large-scale data processing applications[3]
  • LevelDB, an open-source on-disk key-value store
  • DistBelief, a proprietary machine-learning system for deep neural networks that was eventually refactored into TensorFlow
  • TensorFlow, an open-source machine-learning software library[3]

He was an early member of Google Brain,[3] a team that studies large-scale artificial neural networks, and he has headed Artificial Intelligence efforts since they were split from Google Search.[10]

Dean was the subject of controversy when ethics in AI researcher Timnit Gebru challenged Google's research review process, ultimately leading to her departure from the company. Dean responded by publishing a letter on Google's approach to the research process[11] that was the subject of further criticism and controversy.[12]

Rule of four: Google implemented a “Rule of Four” to avoid needless interviews

 It’s no surprise that Google attracts a lot of talented applicants, and narrowing them down to the best of the best can take time. A lot of time, in fact. Former interviewees sharing their experiences on Quora report that the process can take anywhere from two to four months.

“We thought that the more Google employees who interviewed a single candidate, the better our hiring decision would be—which meant someone applying to Google could be subjected to over a dozen interviews,” writes Shannon Shaper, Google’s Hiring Innovation Manager. “This took a massive amount of employee time and also could make for a grueling candidate experience.”

Realizing that this model was not sustainable, the company looked at its interview data from over a five-year period. At every interview, the interviewer would assign the candidate an interview score. The theory was that the accuracy of the mean interview score would increase the more interviewers were involved.

To Google’s surprise, the data revealed this was not the case. Four interviews with four interviewers provided an accurate prediction of a new hire’s performance 86% of the time. Adding more interviewers produced rapidly diminishing returns, increasing the accuracy of the predictive score by less than 1% per additional interviewer.

This was consistent with the company’s data about panel interviews. The decisions made by panels with four people were almost identical to those made by busier panels in 95% of cases.

Using this data, Google implemented a “Rule of Four” standard for most of its interviews. Using a maximum of four interviews, the company cut its time to hire by about two weeks—making the process less stressful for candidates and saving, according to Shannon, “hundreds of thousands of hours” of employee time.


Actionable items

Here is the article. I felt much better after the onsite and decision not to move forward. I could not beat the statistics. I need to work on another 200 hard level algorithms, and learn a lot from top voted discussion posts, and learn one more programming language like Python. 

Monday, December 14, 2020

Adam Khoo: Professional Stock Trading Course Lesson 1 of 10 by Adam Khoo

Here is the link. 

If you want to learn how to trade stocks profitably, even if you are a complete beginner, The Professional Stock Trading Course by Adam Khoo is designed to give you all the tools and strategies to trade stocks confidently and profitably.

I just could not believe that it is such great teaching video. I like to take those 10 courses and look forward to learning a lot about investment.



Will The Market Crash In 2021? - Are We In A Bubble?

 Here is the link. 

Will The Market Crash In 2021? - Are We In A Bubble? Hey everyone, I'm Daniel Pronk and in this video I explain my current thoughts on the stock market and what I am seeing. I personally think the market is reflecting actions of a bubble, and it seems like there is currently a lot of greed in it. I also explain how I am preparing for anything in the stock market for 2021, and what I am doing to get ready.

Recession. How To Buy At The Stock Market Bottom | 3 Key Indicators

 Here is the link. 


In today’s video I’m going to show you three key indicators that can help determine when to put money into the markets and be sure to stay to the very end where I share some really cool insights to how a commodity trader looks at the market. 🕘Subjects: My Current Market Positions “All bear markets are different, all bull markets are the same” Should You Sell Now & Get Out While You Can? Nobody Can Time The Markets Stock Market Bottom Indicators 1. The Death Rate Indicator 2. The Illness Is Under Control Indicator 3. The Unemployment Rate Indicator The Good News For This Recession My Personal Stock Market View BONUS SECTION A COMMODITY TRADER’S VIEW OF THE STOCK MARKET Stock Markets Are Like The Ocean Tide. How Does This Relate To The Stock Markets Right Now? Parting Words Of Encouragement

Finviz screener: How To Find Breakout Stocks. COMPLETE TUTORIAL. Finviz Screener

 Here is the link. 

Today’s Video Topics 10 Criteria For Finding Breakouts How To Use Finviz To Find Breakouts Before They Happen The Importance of Volume 10 Winning Stocks That Could Breakout And Run To New Highs.


Sunday, December 13, 2020

Tennis player: 55 Of The Most Serious Tennis Players In Finance

 Here is the link. 

Wall Street is littered with top tennis players.  Many of them were top ranked junior players. Some were All-Americans in college. A few played professionally and were ranked globally. Hedge fund titans Bill Ackman (Pershing Square), Philippe Laffont (Coatue), Ricky Sandler (Eminence) and Barry Sternlicht (Starwood Capital) are also all active in this community.

People have been able to do business around their forehands and backhands. That's because many of the tennis players on Wall Street know each other very well and feel comfortable doing business together.

Ackman actually met former Pershing Square analyst Mariusz Adamski playing tennis. Wexford Capital's Jason Pinsky is a frequent doubles partner for Ackman.

Shawn Mendes and Alicia Keys Sing Together & Discuss Love and Anxiety | Netflix

 Here is the link. 

To celebrate Shawn's new documentary SHAWN MENDES: IN WONDER and Alicia Key's new Song Exploder episode, these two artists dive deep into an epic conversation on music, creativity, being vulnerable, and eating hummus.

13:00
Alica Keys talked about crafting as a song writer. She talked about something I can understand as a software programmer.

Alicia keys: The hardship growing up

 Here is the article I came cross and I like to spend 30 minutes to relax before I start to work on something. 

From a young age, Alicia struggled with self-esteem issues, "hiding" little by little when her differences made her vulnerable to judgement, and later uninvited sexual attention.[19][20][21] Living in the rough neighborhood of Hell's Kitchen,[15][16] she was, from an early age, regularly exposed to street violence, drugs, prostitution, and subjected to sexual propositions in the sex trade- and crime-riddled area.[21][22][23] "I saw a variety of people growing up, and lifestyles, lows and highs. I think it makes you realise right away what you want and what you don't want", Keys said.[24] Keys recalled feeling fearful early on of the "animal instinct" she witnessed, and eventually feeling "high" due to recurrent harassment.[19][25] Her experiences in the streets had led her to carry a homemade knife for protection.[26][27] She became very wary,[27][28] emotionally guarded, and she began wearing gender-neutral clothing and what would become her trademark cornrows.[31] Keys explained that she is grateful for growing up where she did as it prepared her for the parallels in the music industry, particularly as she was a teenager starting out; she could maintain a particular focus and not derail herself.[21][32] She credits her "tough" mother for anchoring her on a right path as opposed to many people she knew who ended up on the wrong path and in jail. Keys attributed her unusual maturity as a young girl to her mother, who depended on her to be responsible while she worked to provide for them and give Keys as many opportunities as possible.[27][28]

Seth Klarman: Margin of Safety

 Here is the article. 

Forbes lists his personal fortune at US$1.5 billion and is the 15th highest earning hedge fund manager in the world.

Klarman has been an avid supporter of the teachings of Benjamin Graham, and during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008 criticized the short-term thinking of other fund managers, he believes that the "this-time-is-different" mindset will give a false sense of security to investors and they ought to look at the bigger picture. He stresses the utility in the economy's business cycles and their predestined and perpetual self-corrective tendency.[14] Klarman is known to sit on 30% to 50% of his funds in cash as to avoid unfavorable market conditions and only buys stocks he thinks have a suitable mispricing.[8]

He makes unusual investments, buying unpopular assets while they are undervalued, using complex derivatives, and buying put options. During his first years running Baupost, he made it a point to only invest in companies that were not widely accepted by the Wall Street community; he stressed managing risk and using the margin of safety.[8] He is a very conservative investor, and often holds a significant amount of cash in his investment portfolios, sometimes in excess of 50% of the total.[17][18] Despite his unconventional strategies, he has consistently achieved high returns.[19] Klarman looks for companies that are traded at a discount (so he can assume shares with a margin of safety). Klarman and his fund usually go "bargain hunting," when companies are distressed or face low growth or declining years. In 2015, when energy stocks were declining, his firm "started looking for deals."[20] According to Institutional Investor, "[Klarman] has succeeded by deftly exploiting under-valued markets whether they are in equities, junk bonds, bankruptcies, foreign bonds or real estate."[8]

Bill Ackman: 11 Books That Made Me MILLIONS (Must READ)

 Here is the link. 

  1. Warren buffet's way 
  2. Confidence game - about Bill Archman 
  3. Peter Lynch - Beat the street
  4. Quality of earning
  5. Margin of safety  
  6. The intelligent investor - Bible of investing 
  7. One up on the investment - 
  8. You can be a stock market genius 
  9. The essays of lessons of corporate 
Fact, not public opinion - bet big for those companies, those intrinsic value of the company. 
Invest what you know

high speed driving - Bill Arman

Due dilligence - favorite, not follow public hype - not interest of wall street at the time

Examples of ......

Avoid of loss - significant margin of safety 

Do not go for crazy profit

The intelligent investor - individual stock - I should think about reading the book. 

"only invest in what you can afford to lose without that loss having an effect on your daily life in the foreseeable future"

Dec. 13, 2020 1:19 PM 

First book - Security analysis, sixth edition, foreword by Warren Buffett Hardcover - Illustrated,

Second book - Warren buffet way - book by Robert G. Hagstrom

Third book - Confidence game: How hedge fund manager Bill Archman Called Wall street's Bluff - 2011, Christine S. Richard

5th: Beating the street - peter lynch - 

6th: quality of earnings - Thornton L. O'Glove


Lesson learned: Always prepare and calculate how much time I have

 Dec. 13, 2020

Introduction

It is my short research topic I like to work on. Always work on preparation and do not skip the preparation. 

My mistake

I did not prepare for code screen at all. I do not know how many questions will be asked and what is my strategy. How much time should I spend on each algorithm. 

I am so busy with so many things, but it is still not difficult for me to figure out things quickly. I need to pay attention to the detail. 

One online code screen

I finally got online screen from Microsoft Vancouver, but I did make terrible mistake. I took a nap around 8:00 PM, and then started to work on for 75 minutes around 9:00 PM. I made a mistake to think about that there is only one algorithm in code screen, and then I spent 50 minutes on the first algorithm. Finally I learned that there are two more algorithms to work on. 

I just could not believe that I made this kind of technical mistakes. 



Saturday, December 12, 2020

Microsoft online assessment questions

 Here is the link. 


Bill Ackman: How to Evaluate Stock's Worth?

 Here is the link. 

I like to watch the video but I held it until I finished Google onsite on Dec. 8, 2020. And then I did not finish the whole thing, I came back second time to finish the video. Now it is Sunday Dec. 13, 2020, 6:31 PM. 

Be humble. Update about new facts. 

J.C. Penny and Herbal life. 

Stock investment: How many hours should I spend on my portfolio?

 Dec. 12, 2020

Introduction

It is hard for me to learn how to discipline myself in terms of investing. I like to work on a short research how many hours I should spend to learn how to manage my portfolio. 

My portfolio

I did notice that I have 80% of my IRA in cash and also over 90% TFSA in cash as well. I need to review my strategy and think about how to get back into the market. 


Friday, December 11, 2020

Dr. Wang Yongdong: SJTU graduate in 1984

 Here is the wiki page. 

王永东博士1984 年毕业于上海交通大学计算机专业,1985年赴美国加州大学伯克利分校深造并于1992 年获计算机科学博士学位。1991年到1996年,他在美国赛贝斯(Sybase)公司工作,参与并负责一个分布式数据库产品 (Sybase Replication Server) 的研发。他于1996年加入Inktomi 公司从事搜索引擎的研发工作。Inktomi公司是互联网兴起早期的搜索产品研发先驱之一,其搜索引擎曾被MSN, Yahoo, AOL等各大门户网站所采用。2003 年,Inktomi 公司被雅虎收购,王永东博士随即加入雅虎,任国际搜索技术总监,负责雅虎搜索产品在国际市场的研发工作。2007年,他升任副总裁,继续负责国际搜索产品的研发。2009年6月,王永东博士离开雅虎加盟微软,并于当年8月来到北京,就任微软亚洲搜索技术中心总经理。2011年11月,微软(亚洲)互联网工程院成立,王永东博士就任首任院长。 [7]  2014年起兼任微软亚太研发集团首席技术官。 [7]  2017年2月8日被任命为微软全球资深副总裁。