Dear:
The chatting history for this WeChat group "投资小群" is shown below.
————— 2021-11-03 —————
陈建敏 09:37
想做一个100%投资sabr, 结果买价9.01, 9.02冲到9.06
陈建敏 09:41
陈建敏 09:42
陈建敏 09:42
陈建敏 09:43
陈建敏 09:43
陈建敏 09:44
陈建敏 09:44
陈建敏 09:45
陈建敏 09:46
航空恢复到2019年38%
陈建敏 10:00
陈建敏 10:01
Nov. 13, 2021
Here is the link.
Sabre CEO and President, Tom Klein, discusses the company's debut on the NASDAQ exchange while emphasizing how Big Data and Mobile technologies are changing the travel industry
又到了周末和大家见面的时候，经历了震荡的一周，市场在极短的时间里消化了抛压，美股在周五的时候迎来反弹，新的上升浪即将开启，还是一次短期的技术反弹，这已经成为当前最关心的话题。
老规矩，还是先来复盘下本周的走势。上周末的时候，我们预测马斯克卖股票会对大盘造成不小的波动，本周可以说得到了很好的印证。纳指在连续五周收涨之后，本周终于收跌，单周跌幅为0.69%，标普和道指则分别收跌0.31%和0.63%。
大盘之所以本周下跌，原因主要有两个，一个是众所周知的马斯克卖股，TSLA单周收跌15.44%；另一个是周三公布的CPI数据，同比大涨6.2%的CPI，创下了近31年来的最高水平。
实际上股指真的跌了吗，我们必须打一个大大的问号？以纳指100的涨跌来分析，纳指100本周收跌0.98%，如果把TSLA的异常值排除在外，15.44%的跌幅以及6.45%的权重，TSLA一家公司给纳指100贡献了0.996%的跌幅。
也就是说，排除TSLA后的纳指100，实际上纳指100是涨了0.016%，虽然涨幅并不算多，但如果你把所有的仓位平均买入纳指100剩下99家公司，你大概率是可以赚到钱的。事实上，相信很多朋友都感知到了，本周的赚钱效应实际上特别好，所以与其说大盘收跌了，不如说市场只是被特斯拉带崩了。
周三公布的CPI数据，在本周造成了最大的波动，当天纳指收跌1.66%，最近一个月左右的最大单日下跌。在需求强劲的背景下，由于供应链瓶颈和劳动力短缺推高了成本，企业一直在稳步提高消费品和服务价格。这份数据报告也有力的回击了，美联储所谓的「通胀暂时轮」
但当你觉得美股可能要就此掉头往下的时候，周四出现了一次经典的诱空，周五再度强势上涨，尤其是超级巨头在周五的涨幅更是让人震惊。FB收涨4.01%，NFLX收涨3.81%，GOOG收涨2.00%，AMZN收涨1.43%，MSFT收涨1.29%，AAPL收涨1.43%。TSLA则因为马斯克卖股收跌，NVDA则是因为下周要发财报处在震荡阶段，如果这两家公司也涨的话，三大股指在周五会涨的更多。
众多业绩出色的二线成长股龙头也表现相当炸裂，电商SaaS龙头SHOP收涨12.02%，元宇宙游戏龙头RBLX收涨9.64%，在线旅游龙头ABNB收涨7.79%，游戏开发引擎赛道龙头U收涨7.97%，云计算数字仓库SNOW收涨4.7%………类似的例子不胜枚举，我就不一一举例了，但毫无疑问，市场表现出了极为强劲的上攻信号。
TFAANMG七大巨头，FB、MSFT、GOOG、AAPL和MSFT均出现了明显的突破信号。GOOG突破了看涨三角形整理的阻力线，AMZN和AAPL突破了下降楔形的阻力线，MSFT突破了箱体阻力线，FB形成了明显的头肩底。TSLA则因为马斯克还在卖股，保持震荡，但下方有明显支撑。NVDA则在等待下周的三季度财报，但整体也表现强势。
众所周知，纳指有重要的三条腿：TFAANMG超级巨头，芯片硬核科技，软件SaaS互联网服务。我们不妨再来看下IGV和SMH的技术形态。IGV本周逆势收涨0.94%，技术形态上形成了标准的上涨两颗星。SMH的涨势更是惊人，再次收涨1.54%，持续创下历史新高。
周中的时候，还发生了一件有趣的事，过去十年大部分时间都在做空美股的Russell Clark告诉客户，由于出现一系列亏损，他将结束同名对冲基金RC Global Fund。空头平仓离场，对大盘未来的上涨无疑也会有相当的助力。
市场到底发生了什么？远超预期的通胀数据，为何在极短的时间内就被市场消化了？其实这又要回到我们在前几周《欢迎进入躺赢时代》的分析，那就是「当前全球经济即将迈入恶性通胀阶段，慢增长时代已经宣告到来，只有巨头能够通过抢夺竞争对手市场份额获得宝贵的增长」。
一个最经典的例子就是高通和联发科。在去年12月，联发科市场份额首次超过高通后，这家公司的市场份额连续10个月超越高通，但在最近的10月份，高通却实现了对联发科的反超。背后的逻辑在于，伴随着智能手机整体出货量持续下滑，行业彻底进入慢增长阶段，手机厂商开始将更多重心放在了高端市场，而高端市场中的高通具有明显优势。
最终的结果，由于持续的全球零部件短缺，2021 年第三季度智能手机市场同比下降 6%，但高通却交出了一份手机业务收入同比增长21%的三季度财报。在手机行业整体处在下滑的阶段，高通通过抢夺联发科的市场份额获得了逆势增长，而正是这种稀缺的成长性，改变了当前美股的估值逻辑。
股指为何能涨？其实主要依靠的是超级巨头，以及权重排名靠前的二线成长股龙头。极端的行情中，只要TFAAMNG七大巨头的股价上涨，剩下所有的公司暴跌，股指也能维持上涨功能。因为龙头的权重很高，对大盘上涨的贡献也更大，稍微一涨就能让股指保持的不错的涨势。搞明白这个道理，你基本就知道，为什么美股还能继续上涨了。
我们回顾当年的“漂亮50”行情，可以清晰的看到有四个阶段。如今的抱团行情其实也有类似的规律，第一阶段我们已经经历过了，那就是去年3月到今年2月，三大股指从低位反弹了接近1倍，大盘股和小盘股一起无脑暴涨，但在2月之后，整个市场出现了明显的分化。
2020年暴涨的很多小盘股纷纷从高位腰斩，最直接的体现就是被称为“女版巴菲特”的木头姐，她旗下的ARKK跑输了大盘28%，明显跑输大盘。今年2月之后，罗素2000开始了漫长的盘整阶段，最近才刚刚突破盘整区间，而纳指却在这个过程中持续上涨超20%。
我们在前几期的文章中，其实已经对这个走势进行过回顾，那就是纳指的上涨基本完全依赖于排名靠前的超级巨头。换句话来说，我们当前正处在“漂亮50”的第二阶段，那就是大盘震荡上行，抱团股显著跑赢大盘。这种抱团在10月因为TSLA和NVDA的暴涨变得更加极端。
抱团行情之所以在10月加速，这主要是因为三季度的GDP数据。美国经济在第三季度增长2.0%，与今年早些时候的强劲增长相比，这一速度明显放缓。要知道今年第一季度，GDP以6.3%的历史速度增长，二季度则增长6.7%。也就是说，史无前例的放水刺激，对经济增长的作用正在消退，经济即将进入慢增长阶段。
写到这，估计很多人可能会问，市场有没有可能已经进入“漂亮50”的第三阶段了呢？答案是否定的，一方面，美联储虽然计划开始Taper，但市场仍然有相当充足的流动性；另一方面，TFAANMG的三季度业绩确实相当强劲，而且它们当前的估值并不算有太大的泡沫。所以，我们认为还有进一步的上涨空间。
那么为什么我们要说新的上升浪即将要开始了呢？6%的通胀数据，近31年以来的最高水平，上周三公布的CPI数据再一次对经济增速放缓进行了确认，再加上美联储马上又要进入Taper周期，市场已经提前预判，美国经济即将要进入一个恶性通胀和慢增长周期。经济越差，市场越倾向于买入抱团股，而抱团股的权重很高，所以我们看到，股指在周三下跌之后，很快就扭转了颓势。
我们不妨再来回顾下历史，当年的“漂亮50”估值泡沫最顶峰的时期。强劲而稳定的基本面表现是“漂亮50”获得估值溢价的基础。“漂亮50“的估值始终高于市场整体，但牛市后期相对估值进一步快速抬升，呈现一定泡沫。在牛市顶点，“漂亮50”的估值达到40X，而同期的标普500的估值仅为15X。
当前标普的市盈率，因为企业强劲的利润增长，自2021年5月以来，标普500指数的市盈率从最高的45左右，下降到了目前的不到30，而TFAANMG七大巨头当中，AAPL、FB和GOOG的市盈率均低于这个平均值。参考历史数据，TFAANMG的市盈率将会明显高于市场平均值，仅从这点就可以判断，股指仍有不小的上涨空间。
当然，市场并不只是抱团TFAANMG，在七大巨头之外，还有不少公司受到了市场青睐，这些公司最典型的特征，那就是可以在经济下行阶段保持增长。买入增长的稀缺性，也将会成为接下来半年的主要投资主线逻辑。如果你不抱紧巨头，亏钱的概率将会相当大。
把握当下，买入巨头，躺赢或许就是这么简单！
Nov. 13, 2021
Here is the link.
Jan.22 -- Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist of Boston’s GMO, points to the trillions of shares traded in penny stocks as the kind of “crazy behavior” indicative of a bubble top in the equity market. He also discusses investors’ misplaced faith in monetary stimulus. Grantham spoke exclusively to Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg’s “Front Row.”
Michael Tran, managing director of Global Energy Strategy with RBC Capital Markets tells BNN Bloomberg that investors often conflate price with duration and that despite oil prices doubling in the past year, this is the early stages of a bull oil cycle.
Nov. 13, 2021
Here is the link.
US stocks are in a bubble, and legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says it’s even crazier than the great market crash of 1929. In a recent interview on CNBC, Grantham said we are headed for a MAJOR crash. So I want to take a look at this interview with you and give you my thoughts. https://bit.ly/3mYtkre Prepare yourself for a potential market crash with my Ultimate Stock Market Crash Survival Guide. Click the link above to get started.
Jeremy Grantham | |
|---|---|
| Born | Robert Jeremy Goltho Grantham October 6, 1938 |
| Alma mater | University of Sheffield Harvard Business School |
| Occupation | Investor |
| Spouse(s) | Hanne Grantham |
Robert Jeremy Goltho Grantham CBE (born 6 October 1938) is a British investor and co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston-based asset management firm. GMO had more than US$118 billion in assets under management as of March 2015.[1] He has been a vocal critic of various governmental responses to the Global Financial Crisis from 2007 to 2010.[2][3] Grantham started one of the world's first index funds in the early 1970s.[4]
In 2011 he was included in the 50 Most Influential ranking of Bloomberg Markets magazine.
Grantham has repeatedly stated his opinion that the rising cost of energy – the most fundamental commodity – between 2002 and 2008 has falsely inflated economic growth and GDP figures worldwide and that we have been in a "carbon bubble" for approximately the last 250 years in which energy was very cheap. He believes that this bubble is coming to an end. He has stated his opposition to the Keystone Pipeline on the basis of the ruinous environmental consequences that its construction will bring to Alberta and to the entire planet due to the contribution that burning the extracted oil would make to climate change.[15][16]
Grantham is known to be a strong advocate for investments in the timber industry that also relies on trees for biomass/biofuel (wood chips).[17][18][19][20] The potential conflict of interest with Grantham's philanthropic engagement for the "beyond coal" campaign of the Sierra Club[21] was criticized in Jeff Gibbs' documentary Planet of the Humans.[22]
Grantham, together with his wife Hannelore, established the Grantham Foundation For the Protection of the Environment in 1997. Substantial commitments have been made to Imperial College London, the London School of Economics and the University of Sheffield, to establish the Grantham Institute - Climate Change and Environment, the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and the Grantham Centre for Sustainable Futures, respectively, which will enable the institutions to build on their extensive expertise in climate change research.[23] The 2011 tax filing for the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment shows the Foundation donated $1 million to both the Sierra Club and to Nature Conservancy, and $2 million to the Environmental Defense Fund that year. The Foundation has also provided support to Greenpeace, the WWF, Rare and the Smithsonian. From 2006 to 2012, The Grantham Foundation for Protection of the Environment funded a $75,000 prize for environmental reporting. The prize was administered by the University of Rhode Island's Metcalf Institute for Marine & Environmental Reporting.[6][24]
In August 2019, he dedicated 98% (approximately $1 billion) of his personal wealth to fight climate change. Grantham believes that investing in green technologies, is a profitable investment on the long run, claiming that decarbonizing the economy will be an investing bonanza for those who know it’s coming.[25]
Grantham was elected a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.[26] With his wife, Hannelore, he received the Carnegie Medal for Philanthropy.[27]
He was appointed Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) in the 2016 Birthday Honours for philanthropic service to climate change research.[28]
Nov. 13, 2021
Here is the link.
Billionaire Jeremy Grantham is our very special guest on today's episode. He is the co-founder and long-term investment strategist at GMO, one of the world's most well-respected asset management firms. Jeremy is an investing legend and studied market historian, who successfully identified and sidestepped the major corrections such as the Japanese market in 1989, the tech bubble of 2000, and the global financial crisis of 2008, and even called the bottom in 2009. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:09 - How to Identify Market Bubbles and How to Prepare for a Correction? 10:41 - What Is the Key Indicator That We Have Reached the Peak of a Market Bubble? 25:36 - How the FED Talks a Big Game but Doesn’t Have a Great Track Record of Avoiding Major Market Corrections 34:21 - Is It Time to Move to Cash? 37:46 - One-Decision Stocks 39:29 - Green Venture Capital and the Opportunities It Presents
Google -> Sabrs investor relationship -> Find Q3 earnings report
Sabre highlights commercial momentum and focused strategy to capitalize on growth opportunities; reports third quarter 2021 results
Third quarter 2021 business overview:
Third quarter 2021 summary:
Sabre introduces Retail Intelligence, enabling airlines to grow revenue opportunities through personalized retailing
November 3, 2021
Newest suite of airline retailing products dynamically prices and delivers personalized offers travelers want
SOUTHLAKE, Texas, Nov. 3, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Sabre Corporation (NASDAQ: SABR), the leading software and technology company that powers the global travel industry, today announced the release of the first two products in the company's Retail Intelligence suite: Sabre Air Price IQ™ and Sabre Ancillary IQ™ for the dynamic pricing of airfare and ancillaries, respectively.
Sabre Retail Intelligence is an innovative product suite that enables airlines to deliver personalized travel offers in both traditional and NDC channels.
Powered by Sabre Travel AI™ – an innovative capability that integrates Sabre technology with Google Cloud's state-of-the-art AI technology and advanced machine-learning services – Retail Intelligence will allow airlines to dynamically provide offers to travelers based on preferences, marketplace insights and purchase probability, creating a more personalized and better traveler experience.
"We are facing a rapidly changing world and the travel ecosystem looks very different than it did just 18 months ago," said Wade Jones, chief product officer, Sabre Travel Solutions. "Traveler expectations for relevant and personalized offers are growing, and airlines are more focused than ever on becoming sophisticated retailers. Relying on traditional strategies based on historical data patterns isn't enough – airlines need intelligent solutions driven by artificial intelligence and machine learning. This is what we are offering with Sabre's Retail Intelligence suite of products."
Sabre Air Price IQ increases airlines' pricing agility and precision by allowing airlines to adapt quickly to changing marketplace conditions.
Considering traveler segment and trip intent from the shopping request, the product supports an airline's efforts to maximize revenue opportunities while providing a seamless experience to travelers.
Sabre Ancillary IQ uses machine learning to present ancillary offers based on multiple factors, including real-time shopping data and purchase probability to increase incremental revenue opportunities and traveler satisfaction. As a result, airlines can deliver increased value and more choices to their travelers.
Both products can help airlines increase revenue opportunity by adapting quickly to changing marketplace conditions while enhancing customer satisfaction by offering travelers personalized offers that are just right for them.
"As travel retailing becomes more complex to meet increasingly sophisticated consumer expectations, the rules-based technology in use across the industry today will no longer deliver satisfactory results," said Sundar Narasimhan, president, Sabre Labs and Product Strategy. "To truly modernize travel retailing, the industry requires intelligent systems that allow for continuous learning and scaling at speed. At Sabre, we are focused on equipping our customers with those AI-based solutions that will modernize the way we shop, book and experience travel, delivering incremental value for our customers and the travelers they serve."
Sabre's strategic partnership with Google established the Sabre + Google Innovation Framework, pairing Sabre's travel industry experience with Google Cloud's advanced artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities, creating Sabre Travel AI. Utilizing this industry-first capability, Sabre will enable its current products with advanced machine-learning and artificial intelligence to power the retailing experience of the future in travel. The two companies are working to co-develop innovative new technology to bring customers modern, data-driven, omni-channel solutions that enable highly personalized traveler experiences.
About Sabre Corporation
Sabre Corporation is a leading software and technology company that powers the global travel industry, serving a wide range of travel companies including airlines, hoteliers, travel agencies and other suppliers. The company provides retailing, distribution and fulfilment solutions that help its customers operate more efficiently, drive revenue and offer personalized traveller experiences. Through its leading travel marketplace, Sabre connects travel suppliers with buyers from around the globe. Sabre's technology platform manages more than $260B worth of global travel spend annually. Headquartered in Southlake, Texas, USA, Sabre serves customers in more than 160 countries around the world. For more information visit www.sabre.com
Nov. 13, 2021
Here is the link.
Jan.22 -- Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist of Boston’s GMO, believes U.S. stocks have become an epic bubble and will burst in a collapse rivaling the crashes of 1929 and 2000. In this interview, he explains why, discusses the futility of Federal Reserve policy, criticizes the state of American capitalism, and shares his thoughts on gold, Bitcoin, emerging markets and climate change. He spoke exclusively to Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg’s “Front Row.”
25:26/ 38:25
"Bitcoin is 100% faith. Come the next market phase where faith is at a minimum, what do we think will happen to a stock whose entire reason for existence is faith and nothing but faith?"
Jeremy Grantham
GMO Co-Founder & Chief Investment Strategist
Dear:
The chatting history for this WeChat group "投资小群" is shown below.
————— 2021-11-13 —————
陈建敏 15:32
財經 美國財經
通膨無法攔阻美股繼續上漲 下周且看連鎖店財報壓軸
編譯劉忠勇／綜合外電 2021-11-13 07:32
美國股市三大指數周五全面反彈，可見通膨高漲並未擊潰市場信心，
道瓊工業指數上漲179.08點，
台積電ADR隨費半反彈，各漲0.4%和0.8%，
美股這一周受到通膨高漲的考驗，
美銀策略師發布報告說：「
下周正好由零售業者為財報季壓軸，
National證券首席市場策略師霍根（Art Hogan）說：「沃爾瑪可謂消費者風向的一大指標，
霍根在內的分析師認為，儘管通膨疑慮仍在，美股可望繼續上漲。
不過，有投資人仍擔心，從特斯拉（Tesla） 、輝達（Nvidia）以及電動車製造商 Rivian 首次公開發行股票（IPO）誇張的漲法來看，
摩根士丹利發布報告說：「我們認為散戶進場、年底向來偏強，
Nov. 13, 2021
Here is the link.
The founder of GMO, known for calling several of the biggest market turns of recent decades, talks to the FT's US finance editor Robert Armstrong about his fears for a stock market crash in 2021.
Nov. 13, 2021
Here is the link.
Investors’ faith in the Federal Reserve has become so unshakable that not even the highest inflation in three decades is enough to cause a sell-off in assets, according to Jeremy Grantham. the value-investing giant and co-founder of Boston-based asset manager GMO. He spoke with David Westin on Bloomberg Television's "Wall Street Week."
Market peeks
