Thursday, November 25, 2021

15 Tips from “Super Investor” Schloss that Equity Investors Must Always Obey

Nov. 25, 2021

Here is the article.

 Today’s investors enjoy the luxury of using fast internet connections and large amounts of information to track potential equity drivers and make fast, profitable transactions.

One of Wall Street’s legends did it all without touching a computer or accessing the internet.

Walter Schloss One of the most successful investors in history, Value Investor I know about the misuse of his investment.

(Market master:: Read other investment strategies and trading tips from market greats)

Born in August 1916, Schloss was not officially qualified and began working as a runner on Wall Street in 1934, after which he served in the United States Army Communications Corps.He finally Benjamin Graham After taking an investment course taught by Benjamin Graham on the New York Stock Exchange, he enrolled in a value investment school.

He then worked for Graham-Newman Partnership under Graham. Warren Buffett..

In 1955 he founded his own company, Walter J Schloss Associates, which set one of the best records in investment history until his death in 2012. It’s a record that’s hard to match with the best investors each year.

In 1984, Warren Buffett nominated Schloss as one of the great “supervisors”, saying: He just said that if the business was worth $ 1 and you could buy it for 40 cents, something good might happen to me. And he repeats it over and over again. He owns far more shares than I do and is less interested in the underlying nature of the business. It doesn’t seem to have much effect on Walter. That is one of his strengths. No one has a great influence on him. ”

Investment philosophy

Schloss was good at picking stocks when stocks reached new lows or when they were trading at a price lower than the book value per share. In addition to buying shares of companies below book value, he examined the company’s management to see if they were overly greedy or honest.

This information helped management know how they have been running their business over the years and was able to better predict whether the company’s business will prosper in the future.

Schloss thought it was better to buy stocks than bonds because of the potential for growth. He also limited holding one stake to less than 20% of the total portfolio. But at all times, he didn’t hesitate to hold up to 100 different stocks in his portfolio.

He weighted his holdings based on their perceived value and invested less in unconfident positions. He used limit orders to buy stocks and allow him to determine the price to pay.

Walter Schloss has left a library of investment wisdom relevant today.

  • Don’t try to time the market

According to Schloss, many investors like to predict and predict market directions and often run into serious problems. He said it should be recognized that it is almost impossible to time the market and make accurate forecasts.

“I’m not good at timing the market, so when people ask me what the market is doing, their guesses are the same as mine,” he said in the article.

  • Don’t trust the operation

Schloss said investors should not believe in the promises of the company’s management and should not trust earnings forecasts.

“I have nothing to oppose earnings, except that earnings can change in the first place. Second, your earnings forecasts may be correct, but people’s thinking about multiples It’s changed, so it’s easier and more satisfying to look at the book value. Revenues are much more likely to fluctuate than book values, so it’s important to estimate revenue over a longer period, such as next year. Errors can occur, “he said.

  • Don’t influence your emotions on your investment decisions

Schloss believed that weak emotional intelligence was deadly to an investor’s career. Investors with weak emotional intelligence will find it very difficult to take advantage of good opportunities to buy value stocks. Also, they cannot hold stocks when they fall.

“The ability to think emotionally and clearly in the field of investment is not an easy task. Fear and greed tend to influence one’s judgment. Have a strong stomach and are willing to accept unrealized losses. Must be, “he said.

Schloss said investors should learn to stay away from the daily hustle and bustle of the market. That way, you can control your emotions and make better investment decisions.

“I’m trying to get away from every day. I don’t have a ticker tape machine in my office. I try to stay in the emotions of the market. The market is a very emotional place and appeals to fear and horror. Greedy, all these unpleasant traits people have, “he said.

  • Invest only in your circle of abilities

Schloss said it is important for investors to invest only in areas that they understand and are satisfied with.

“If you’re new and don’t have a basic understanding of the area you’re looking at, it’s probably best to learn more or find another investment before diving,” he said.

  • When to buy and when to sell stock

According to Schloss, one of the biggest challenges value investors face was not knowing when to sell. He found it very easy to determine which stocks were statistically cheaper and which stocks had the characteristic of outperforming, but it’s never easy to know when to sell. was.

He followed the general rule of thumb of aiming for a 50% profit on any stock before selling it. Sometimes it continued to rise after selling the stock, but he tried to suppress his emotions and stuck to his decision.

Schloss believed that if investors buy cheaper than value and hold it long enough, depressed companies can turn around and make decent profits. Investors thought they could buy more of the stock if the company’s fundamentals were sound.

“If you buy a depressed company, it won’t rise right after you buy it. Believe it. It will fall. So you have to wait a while for the company to turn around,” he said.

Schloss has created a checklist to consider first before buying shares in the company. Inventory must be owned-

  • 10 years of excellent track record
  • No long-term debt
  • Low price-to-book value ratio
  • Price is 52 weeks low or close
  • High insider ownership
  • Maintain a diverse portfolio

Schloss says diversifying the portfolio is very important in the long run. He advised investors to limit their holdings of one share to less than 20% of the total portfolio. He also felt that investors could diversify their portfolio up to 100 shares.

Before investing in a company, Schloss also looked at the value characteristics of that company.

A company that has real assets and has little or no debt and provides a safety margin if the company is liquidated.

  • 20% or more discount from book value.
  • Good dividend yield.
  • A manager who has a lot of inventory.
  • Sincere management that does not come at your own expense.

In a lecture on how to make money in the stock market for young investors and those who are not familiar with the process of value investing,

Schloss once came up with a 15-point guide:-

  • Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value.
  • We will strive to establish corporate value. Keep in mind that share of stock is part of your business, not just a piece of paper.
  • It tries to establish the value of the company by using the book value as a starting point. Make sure your debt is not 100% of your capital. (Capital and capital surplus are common stock).
  • Please be patient. Stock prices will not rise immediately.
  • Do not buy for tips or quick moves. If possible, ask a professional to do it. Don’t market bad news.
  • Don’t be afraid to be lonely. However, make sure your judgment is correct. It’s not 100% certain, but look for weaknesses in your thinking. Buy on a scale down and sell on a scale up.
  • Once you make a decision, have the courage to stick to your beliefs.
  • Have an investment philosophy and follow it.
  • When buying stocks, buy near the lows of the last few years.
  • Try to buy assets at a discounted price, not buy profits. Revenues can change dramatically in the short term. Assets usually change slowly. To make a profit, you need to know more about your company.
  • Listen to suggestions from people you admire. This does not mean that you have to accept them. Remember, it’s your money, and it’s generally harder to maintain than to make money. Once you lose a lot of money, it’s hard to get it back.
  • Make sure your emotions don’t affect your judgment. Fear and greed are probably the worst emotions associated with buying and selling stocks.
  • Remember the word compound. For example, if you make a profit of 12% a year and reinvest that money, you can double your money in six years, excluding taxes. Remember the Rule of 72. The rate of return to 72 indicates the number of years to double the money.
  • Prioritize stocks over bonds. Bonds limit profits, and inflation reduces purchasing power.
  • Pay attention to leverage. It could go against you.

Schloss emphasized focusing on assets rather than profits, which require the ability to identify competitive advantages and thoroughly document the financial statements of companies that are difficult for most people to understand. Different from Warren Buffett’s investment style to investigate.

While many investors often invest in businesses based on annual returns, Schloss has proven that focusing on assets on the balance sheet is more likely to be successful. Schloss’s investment style is a challenging style that is still in use today.

15 tips from ‘super-investor' Schloss a stock investor must always follow

Nov. 25, 2021

Here is the article.

Walter Schloss was one of the most successful investors of all times, but very few outside the close circuit of value investors know about his investment exploits.

Investors these days have the luxury of fast internet connections and a deluge of information to track potential stock drivers and make a quick profitable trade.

One Wall Street legend did it all without ever having touched a computer or accessing the internet.

Walter Schloss was one of the most successful investors of all times, but very few outside the close circuit of value investors know about his investment exploits.

Born in August 1916, Schloss had no formal qualifications and began working as a runner on Wall Street in 1934 before serving in the US Army Signal Corps. He eventually became a notable follower of the Benjamin Graham School of Value Investing, after he took investment courses taught by Benjamin Graham at the New York Stock Exchange Institute.

Later, he worked for Mr Graham in the Graham-Newman Partnership, where he also happened to meet Warren Buffett.

In 1955, he founded his own firm: Walter J Schloss Associates, where he racked up one of the best records in investing history until he passed away in 2012. In his over 40 year career as an investor, Schloss compounded his money at 16% year after year, a record that is still difficult to match for the best of investors.

In 1984, Warren Buffett named Schloss one of the ..

Investment philosophy
Schloss had the knack for picking stocks when they were hitting new lows and the ones trading at prices lower than their book values per share. Besides buying stocks of the firms below book values, he also looked at a firm's management to check whether they were overly greedy or honest.

This information helped him know how the management ran the business over the years and gave a good prediction whether the firm's business would prosper in the future.

Schloss believed it was better to buy stocks than bonds because of their growth potential. He also limited his holdings in one stock to no more than 20% of his entire portfolio. But at any given time, he was never shy of holding up to 100 different stocks in his portfolio.

He weighted his holdings based on their perceived values, putting less money in positions he was less sure about. He used limit orders to purchase stocks, so that he could decide on the price he was willing to pay.

Breakfast and learn: Introduction to Google Cloud Machine Learning (Google Cloud Next '17)

Nov. 25, 2021

Here is the link. 

Google Cloud is at the forefront of developing cutting-edge machine learning technology. Computer vision, predictive modeling, natural language understanding, and speech recognition are among the most popular business related uses of machine learning so far. In this video, you'll learn how to leverage machine learning for your own business applications.


Wednesday, November 24, 2021

滑雪双板

滑雪双板, 小白到大拿的4个阶段,你属于哪个等


对于滑雪的人来说, 客观地知道自己的水平到底在那里. 就不会因自己摔几脚而自馁, 或者是OVER自牛而放松警惕, 为日后留下祸根. 要知道自己的水平,就要有一个客观的衡量标准. 为此美国划雪教练协会(PSIA)为SKI发展出四阶段九级的衡量标准,在此翻译出来仅供参考. 觉得自己学得慢的人可以增加点成就感. 觉得自己牛的人可以知所不足,补强之后得以更上一层. 更重要的是提供一个有系统的学习方法,让大家可以按步就班的进步. 不要急于心切吗!

第一阶段: 初学(Beginning)

Level 1: 第一次划雪. 会站,走, 走上坡, 简单滑行. 可以八字滑行, 减速, 刹车. 熟悉上下揽车.

Level 2: 能以犁式(wedge)应付初学者练习区,开始可以左右连续的作犁式转弯,并且能在任何方向上自如转停.

Level 3: 可以在初级道自如的作八字转弯. 探索不同大小及形状的八字转弯. 开始学八字并腿转弯(wedge-christie turn). (注:以八字入弯, 双板平行(parallel)出弯,为八字平行转弯的过程)

第二阶段: 中阶(Intermediate)

Level 4: 可以做高级八字转弯(Advanced Wedge Christie, 就是在转弯的早期把雪板并过来)或叫高级八字并腿转弯, 在初级道悠游自如. 八字并腿转弯的并腿时机越来越早. 发展不同刃角(edge)及左右板施压(pleasure)的感觉.

Level 5: 可以没有八字的并腿转弯(在还板的过程中没有八字出现), 开始利用雪杖平衡. 常可看到在入弯时抬起内侧板作并腿的动作. 开始练习转弯的大小及快慢(long to short, slow to quick). 滑中级道.

评语:大部分大众滑雪者都可到这个程度.

Level 6: 开始可以利用整个身体重心移动来完成平行转弯(parallel turn). (注:不再需要以犁式或抬起内侧板来入弯,而是以身体重心移转及雪杖的动作来开始转弯(initiate turns)). 开始玩简单的雪包(bump). 开始感受转弯时走刃(carving)及侧划(skidding)的不同组合.

评语: 如果基本功没练好,大部分人到这一级就停滞不前,没法再进步了. 可是到了这个程度,90%的雪道已难不倒了. 但是在选择什么时候走刃(carving)什么时候侧划(skidding)都一直是个挑战.

第三阶段: 高阶(Advanced), 黑道

Level 7: 可以以约与肩同宽的板距的快速小回转平行转弯滑行. 划所有的雪道. 开始学动态平行转弯(dynamic-parallel turn). 开始尝试不同的雪况,陡坡,雪包及回转赛道. 开始练习小回转(short-radius turn). 开始增加上身及下身的独立或甚至相反的关系(countered relationship). 强调走刃转弯(carving turn).
Level 8: 可以以动态平行转弯(dynamic-parallel turn)划简单的高级道. (注: 与平行转弯相比,动态平行转弯的入弯减少了身体的上下浮动,转刃更顺畅,速度变化更小,上身及下身的独立性更高,雪杖的使用更好,视线及身体正面几乎没有离开过下降线(fallline)) 遇到较难的坡或雪况板距会拉开. 可以处理简单的高级道雪包. 可以划较轻的粉状雪(light powder).

Level 9:可以不同的速度划所有的雪道. 有能力选择不同的战略来应付(mogul),粉状雪(powder)及厚野雪(crud).

第四阶段: 大拿(Expert)

双板滑雪的5S基本功总结

   我们所说的双板滑雪基本功的5S版本,是来自加拿大CSIA的5个Skiing Skills。有人管它叫CSIA五大神功的,不过我的理解就是双板滑雪基本功的分类而已,所有的动作,从犁式到半犁式再到carving,都总是离不开这几条。在有的体系中,会归类成4条、6条之类,但都是万变不离其宗。  不是有人说过么, 双板好手会犯的错误,跟新手经常是一样的,重心后坐便是一个好例子。

1. Stance and Balance (姿势与平衡) :

这里面所说的stance姿势也就是滑雪者身体各部分关节的连接方式(alignment),好的站姿是要稳定、灵活的,这样在滑行过程中可以不断的调节平衡位置。

Balance平衡简单来说就是你“不摔”的能力,在CSIA的物理学里,叫做BOS(支持面),与COM(重心)的排列。你的脚,也就是你的支持面,应该在能支持你重心的正确位置。

北美技术并不强调站姿的“高、中、低”之分,而是统一采用所谓的athletic stance(运动姿势),在整个滑行过程中,根据压力控制(见下文) , 动态地调整站姿的高低,释放压力或增加压力。静止时小腿微屈,上身与小腿平行,肩膀在胯之前。所有关节都会微屈。 可以记住的一条黄金定律是:“肩膀永远在膝盖之上”。这个stance也是CSIA技术的基石。

站姿有宽窄之分,这也是个动态的过程。 根据雪况来决定自己采取的站姿宽窄,在机压雪道等较硬,较平整的雪道上,会采用标准的大约与肩同宽的站姿;在更硬的冰面上,会更宽;在有大量雪包的软雪面、烂雪面上,会使用窄站姿。  站姿的宽窄取决于平衡的需要,冰面上宽站姿更稳定,软雪上则是窄站姿更能保持平衡。一切是由功能决定。

保持平衡的动作主要是在四个平面上: 前后(fore-aft),上下(up&down),两侧(side to side)以及旋转。具体的技术理论这里不展开介绍了。 初中级滑雪者需要主动思考来寻找平衡,高级滑雪者会有这样的一种本能,顶尖滑雪者能够预测(anticipate)滑行下一步的平衡变化,然后主动采取行动保持姿态稳定。所有的关节都应在上述的几个平面处于持续的、动态的活动中,灵活调整,不能死板。

手张开向前向外,一定量的前后运动是可以的。就好比走钢丝,手可以摆动来维持平衡。

重心居中,不太向前,也不能落后,要刚好踩在雪板的甜点(sweet spot)上。最理想的状态是刚好能感受到鞋舌。 太过靠前(鞋舌给的压力过大),靠后(脚后跟,鞋后侧着力)都会影响你的平衡能力,以及接下来所介绍的转弯能力。

怎么样判断你的重心是不是居中了呢? 可以从原地开始, 再到每个弯之间的过渡阶段,起跳一下, 把腿跳直。 如果你的板子是板尾抬起,板头触地的,说明你重心偏前;如果你是板头抬起,板尾着地的,那一定是落后了; 正合适的是整个板子同步腾空。 有一些练习比如说让你死顶鞋舌什么的,都是针对重心已经太后座的滑雪者,提供的矫枉过正的教学方法。

2.Pivoting (拧转)

这里所指的拧转,是仅下半身主动转动,上半身(包含髋关节)保持稳定。 

拧转便是你主动左右旋转雪板的能力(所以有的技术把这个基本功叫做rotary skill)。在你利用下肢(从脚踝到大腿)旋转雪板的过程中,会产生自然的上下身分离。

体会拧转很简单: 你可以穿上雪鞋平躺地上, 把从膝盖到脚的部分立起来,屈膝盖,然后同步拧转你的两脚,这个感觉便是pivot拧转的感觉。 

有一些体会的细节稍有区别,不过这不是重点。

拧转和立刃时可以同步进行的,比如说你从雪板的板头到板尾逐渐立刃,此时你是依然可以拧转的。 

越是小弯,对于拧转的要求就更高。

转动腿部的动作会让你的弯弧度变小,也可以拿来改变当前的回转方向(比如卡搓结合)。

反拧不是主动的,而是好的拧转、立刃的混合自然生成的。  其实一定程度的反拧(counter-rotation)从物理学角度上是可以方便你扭转雪板的, 但是并不鼓励这种手段。 过分的反拧会使山上腿过度承重。

拧转跟你手的位置紧密关联,如果你的手没张开的话,就很容易靠上身带动转弯,属于上下身不分离,错误动作。

同样的小弯,如果雪板自身半径小,那你需要的扭转动作就更少。

练习拧转可以把雪杖平举成一个“窗户”,在陡坡上连续拧转拐弯,保持窗内的景色不变。换句话说上半身的朝向不变。 如果你练习跟拍,也会产生类似的上下身分离。

3.Edging 立刃

首先需要排除很多人的一种误解:学立刃是拿来学卡宾的;立刃就是走刃,就是刻滑卡宾;搓雪是不需要立刃的。 这些都是不正确的说法,因为你把板子的刃立起来,跟雪面形成角度就是立刃了。比如说平行刹车,横滑降,多少都是需要立刃的。 你横向蹬坡,八字蹬坡,蹬冰式也都得把刃立起来。 立刃跟走刃(carving)区别是,你把刃立起来以后,是不是让雪板自身的侧切(side-cut)带着你走,而不是自己转动雪板。如果是立了刃儿,你“告诉”雪板怎么走,然后它带着你走,那个才是走刃。

立刃靠的是内倾(inclination),内倾可以是脚踝,可以是膝盖,也可以是胯部。CSIA技术中强调,入弯时内倾,出弯时反弓。 反弓会进一步增加立刃角度。 出弯时必须避免那种类似于横滑降的横向搓雪, 因为CSIA强调balance on edges(在刃上找平衡), 要求始终对雪板有很强的控制力,如果出弯打滑,则是看做失控的。 如果要画出圆弯,让你的雪板能一路指到山上去,出弯时增大立刃角度是必不可少的。 因为在这个阶段需要控制住的压力最多。

其中:

反弓(Angulation)与身体的位置相关,是所有内侧下身关节的屈曲。

内倾(Inclination)与平衡相关,内倾过多会导致内脚过分承重,最终摔倒。

注意内倾不是直挺挺的侧倒,肩膀要与坡面平行。

还有一个点是toppling,过渡时像新弯内侧倾倒。改变内倾的方向,把重心从一只脚转移到另一只脚上。

有点类似于“往山下扑”,不过CSIA在过渡时推崇“square”,也就是说全身都指向雪板的方向,不反拧、上半身不主动。 所以我觉得应该算作crossunder,而不是crossover。

有的教学会用Tipping这个词, 大多数时候tipping是指靠脚踝立刃。

以下两个基本功更虚一些,更多是在平时滑雪中混合融入进去。而且更多是靠雪时的积累来提高的。

4. Timing and Coordination 节奏与协调

这个的基本功的性质与之前不同,跟滑雪者自身的运动能力关联会更多。节奏方面就是比如说你去猫跳道,雪包道,需要快速地作出决定,往哪里拐,拐多少,怎么拐等等。 需要一种预见性(anticipation)。 协调方面也是类似的,快速地保持平衡,在出错后能否快速的恢复等等。

最好的例子是点杖,雪时不够的雪友肯定是很难正确体会到点杖的作用的。而经验丰富的老手,即使没学过点杖,排除习惯因素,也能很快的学会点杖。

这一条能做好的话,你的动作会显得轻松、流畅、优美。 有人说滑雪是靠雪时堆出来的,没错,至少在4、5这两条基本功上,靠的就是雪时。

5. Pressure Control 压力控制

这一条也是北美教学的一条特色,喜欢从“压力”上来考虑问题。 

体会压力的变化可以去复杂的雪况、地形。 比如说软雪、硬雪、冰面、湿雪,你脚底下的感觉是不同的。 去滑波浪道、野雪包也是很好的体会方式。

雪板要尽可能始终与雪面保持接触,在一个弯的从头至尾始终施加压力。 如果是上文中所说的刹车性质的横滑搓雪,就属于上半个弯没有压力,下半个弯猛地抵抗压力。 我们经常说High-C  high-c ,其实就是早立刃,早早地建立压力。 这也是刻滑控制速度的一个技巧。

经常有人提到:“引身”,“下压”。 其实这两个动作的组合,便是压力控制的一种体现。

屈曲(flexion)-重心COM向下加速,减小板压;

伸展(extension)-重心COM向上加速,增大板压;

速度慢的时候,我们要制造压力;速度快的时候,我们要控制压力。

下面是很重要的一条,我们在控制压力的时候,要感受到的是,膝盖往胸口顶的感觉,而不是胸口朝膝盖压的感觉。 前者是你正确的屈曲(flex)了, 后者则不那么有效。 

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Ski Gloves

 

Vgo 1Pair -5℃/23°F Warm Ski Gloves,Winter Snow Gloves,Outdoor Gloves,3M Thinsulate Waterproof Gloves(TS2470FW)

Here is the link. 

Oil reserve release: Nov. 23, 2021

Nov. 23, 2021

RIG stock | Yahoo finance -> Conversation

6 hours ago

$CPE conversation

 Worldwide oil reserve release: 70 million mostly by Brandon. That should last about a day HAHAHAHA!

Haworth said demand was unlikely to be significantly deterred by a rise in COVID-19 cases and renewed restrictions in Europe, noting that recent upticks in cases haven’t put lasting pressure on oil demand.

So how much crude is set to hit the market from worldwide petroleum reserve releases?

US: 50 million barrels

India: 5 million barrels

Japan: 4 million barrels

Participation by China, South Korea and the U.K. would bring the total number of barrels set to be released to 65 million to 70 million

$CDEV $LPI $RIG

Google search | A few facts to review

  1. 97,103,871 barrels per day
  2. Here is the link. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-largest-oil-and-gas-companies-in-the-world/
  3. More will be added later

Monday, November 22, 2021

Brace Master Waterproof Ski Gloves - Touchscreen 3M Thinsulate Warm Winter Gloves Cold Weather Snow Gloves Ice Fishing, Skiing, Sledding, Snowboard - for Men or Women

Lixada Snow Ski Helmet with Earmuff Goggle Men Women Safety Skiing Helmet Professional Skiing Sports Helmet and Protective Glasses Shockproof/Windproof Gear for Skiing,Motorcycle Cycling and Snowmobile

双板滑雪教学,半小时25步完全滑雪教程,从入门,平行式到滑雪高手!雙板滑雪教學

Nov. 22, 2021

Here is the link. 

双板滑雪教学,滑雪技巧,从滑雪入门教程,初学滑雪,滑雪初学者到平行式滑雪进阶,再到滑雪高手大神,高级滑雪技巧。从滑雪装备到八字犁式刹车转弯,到双板平行式滑雪,点杖,上下身分离,反弓,小回转,大回转,刻滑,ski carving,冰球刹,引身Crossover,收腿释放压力Crossunder,完全雙板滑雪教學!How to Ski, Ski Tutorials, Ski Lessons 1. 认识滑雪装备 2. 感受雪板 3. 两只雪板重心移动 4. 穿板平地移动 5. 一字登坡 6. 八字登坡 7. 八字犁式刹车 8. 八字平行控速 9. 如何坐各种缆车 10. 如何摔倒不受伤 11. 八字犁式转弯 12. 静止大角度立刃 13. 静止八字变平行 14. 横滑降 15. 斜滑降 16. 一千只脚 17. 海浪弯 18. J弯 19. 平行刹车和冰球刹 20. C弯 21. 熟练双板平行式滑雪 22. 上下身分离(反弓) 23. 点杖 24. 引身 Corssover 25. 收腿 Crossunder 滑雪,双板滑雪,滑雪教学,滑雪技巧,体育,运动,极限运动 滑雪教练,滑雪教練,如何滑雙板,初學滑雪,双板初学,雙板教學,滑雪注意事项,华人滑雪

Sunday, November 21, 2021

Stock weekly report: Nov 21, 2021 | 资金的避险需求

极端抱团之后,美股将走向何方?

Here is the link.

 My notes:

  1. NVDA up 8.54%, TSLA 10.03%, FB 1.29%, AAPL 7.04%, MSFT 2.08%, AMZN 4.3%, GOOG 0.13%
  2. PLPL, 37% loss, SNAP 38% loss, DKNG 50% loss, ROKU 51% loss, ZM 56% loss, TDOC 60% loss, STNE 79% loss
  3. 在美联储没有实质加息,市场流动性泛滥的基础下,每一次巨头下跌都会是抄底机会。

  4. 距离我们对巨头的极端估值,当前还有不小的上涨空间,所以我们的观点仍然保持不变,抱紧巨头,这已经成为当前市场唯一的选择。

又到了周末和大家见面的时候,超级巨头迎来强势护盘的一周。最近的行情,用一句话总结的话,「超级巨头涨得让你怀疑人生,小盘股也跌得让你怀疑人生」。


本周三大股指出现了明显的分化,纳指单周收涨1.24%,标普收涨0.32%,道指却收跌1.38%,但整体走势基本和我们预测的一样,「买入增长的稀缺性,也将会成为接下来半年的主要投资主线逻辑。如果你不抱紧巨头,亏钱的概率将会相当大」。


在过去一周,TFAAMNG继续无脑暴涨,走出了相当强势的上攻信号。NVDA收涨8.54%、TSLA收涨10.03%、FB收涨1.29%、AAPL收涨7.04%、MSFT收涨2.08%、AMZN收涨4.30%、GOOG收涨0.13%。虽然巨头之间有强弱之分,但随便买一家巨头,大概率都会盈利不错,如果激进点的朋友,买了一些巨头长期的看涨期权,上周可以说是赚大发了。


但另一边的成长股却是另一番景象,相当数量的成长股已经在高位腰斩。我们简单统计了几家在2020年表现抢眼的成长股,PYPL高位回撤37%、SNAP高位回撤38%、DKNG高位回撤50%、ROKU高位回撤51%、ZM高位回撤56%、TDOC高位回撤60%、STNE高位回撤79%…..


这里就不一一举例了,但这却是一个非常残酷的事实,那就是超级巨头和成长股之间明显出现了分化,而且分化的极为严重。最能说明这个问题的数据,那就是纳指100在本周收涨2.35%,但纳斯达克指数却只涨了1.24%,这是非常罕见的一件事,那就是纳斯达克指数和纳指100出现了明显的强弱分化。


从成长股的角度来看,美股早在今年2月就已经跌入熊市,ARKK今年跑输纳指100接近40%,不仅年内没涨,反而还收跌接近10%,要不是有TSLA一枝独秀支撑着ARKK,这个在2020年的明星ETF,大概率早已跌入技术性熊市。相信很多朋友应该已经感知到了,ARKK里面的很多成分股都已经从高位腰斩。


巨头今年保持了强劲上涨的一年,并且仍然在不断创下历史新高,这是市场极度恐慌的表现,对未来充满各种担忧,机构资金只能选择抱团取暖。这种抱团现在正变得越来极端,这绝对不是一个很好的信号,毕竟巨头的上涨空间也是有限的。


当前的TSLA市值已经突破1万亿美元,估值更是被炒作到了2030年,机构喊出2030年TSLA可以一年卖出2000万辆电动车的口号,这很明显是一个难以实现的目标。另一家科技巨头NVDA,凭借一个季度70亿美元左右的营收,接近50%的同比增速,市值被炒作到了8000亿美元,而一个季度营收高达290亿美元营收的FB,市值也就9800亿美元。


有没有泡沫?这个仁者见仁,智者见智,但在终局估值思维的带动下,这两大巨头都已经被完美定价,股价涨幅远远跑在了业绩之前,NVDA和TSLA要证明当前的估值,不仅要在未来至少5年时间保持当前的增速,而且还要拥有比现在更快的增速。随着它们的体量逐渐变大,这个目标能实现吗?必然是一个大大的问号,因为它们在各自的赛道都或多或少面临着激烈竞争。


我们在过去几周明确了一个观点,那就是当前的股市其实就是上个世纪“漂亮50”行情的延续,而漂亮50行情分为明显的四个阶段:①大盘全面复苏,全面上涨;②大盘震荡上行,巨头显著跑赢大盘;③大盘震荡下行,巨头显著跑赢大盘;④巨头补跌,大盘全面崩盘。


我们当前处在第二阶段的尾声,这个阶段其实也是最为疯狂的,因为市场已经完全不关注基本面了,股指之所以还在上涨,完全只是资金的避险需求。由于巨头的权重高,只要巨头还能保持上涨动能,那就可以带着大盘继续往上涨。但第二阶段结束之后呢?如果历史可以重复,我们将会面临震荡下行和全面崩盘,相信未来2~3年的股市不会乐观。


再来算一笔账,纳指100上涨收涨2.35%,七大巨头到底贡献了多少涨幅,根据这几家公司的权重,我们大致能得出一个数据,那就是TFAAMNG差不多贡献了2.37%的涨幅。如果再算上ADBE、QCOM和AMD,这十家公司就给大盘贡献了2.7%的涨幅,等于其他公司在跌,可见市场抱团现象有多么严重。


对于接下来的行情,我这里必须要扭转大家一个错误观念,那就是很多人觉得,现在巨头暴涨,其他小盘股都在暴跌。等巨头涨不动进行调整的时候,小盘股会补涨。这很明显是一个非常错误的认知,因为当前的剧情和以往的抱团都不一样。等巨头真涨不动了,只有全面崩盘。


为什么要这么说?因为所有人都知道,全球经济已经进入下行拐点,美国GDP增速已经掉到2%,通胀激增到6%,美国消费者支出减少了10%,这三组数据结合在一起,可以很轻而易举的得出一个结论:放水刺激对经济增长的作用正在消退,工资收入增长的速度赶不上通胀,经济滞涨时代已悄悄在路上。


在这样一个宏观背景之下,美联储还在收紧货币政策,明年某个重要的时间节点,极大概率会进行加息,届时高估值的成长股必然会再次被杀估值。这一轮由货币政策催生出来的史诗级泡沫,必然会迎来一个阶段性的终点,而参考2000年科网泡沫时代,高估值成长股将会从高位蒸发80%的市值。现在只是从高位进行腰斩,这意味着未来一年,这些公司还会在当前位置再次腰斩。


大摩在最新的报告中表示,投资者对于抗通胀的“反脆弱资产”(anti-fragileassets)的追逐已趋近疯狂的程度,未来这一需求或变得更为迫切。由于流动性环境宽松,标普500指数的市盈率已经高达21.2倍。投资者正加速寻求能跑赢通胀的资产,现金似乎变得毫无价值,美股明年有望冲击5000点。


这个报告通俗点来说,那就是现在这市场所有人都在买超级巨头,所有人都在买可以抗通胀的资产。如果这个预测是对的,超级巨头还是能继续暴涨,涨到5000点差不多接近8%的涨幅。


差不多对应:苹果涨到180,亚马逊涨到4000,特斯拉重回1200,英伟达涨到350,谷歌涨到3200,FB涨到380,AMD涨到180,QCOM涨到200,MSFT涨到350…….这些巨头涨到这个位置,股指差不多就到5000点了。


等到这个阶段,巨头已经被完美定价,即使还能继续上涨,但上涨的空间恐怕也不会太大,美股很有可能在巨头失去上涨动能之后,迎来全面回调。当然,这一轮美股的暴涨,其实和2000年科网泡沫时代还是有巨大区别。


因为TFAAMG为代表的超级巨头实际上的泡沫并不大,很多芯片公司的PE也就不到30倍,基本都在可接受范围之内。所以我们必须要进行严格的区分。超级巨头的走势更接近2013年,成长股的走势则更接近2000年。


牛市终究会终结,大盘从低点到现在涨了250%,基本已经把未来几年的涨幅都提前透支。但我们深刻的知道一件事,经济每次遇到大的危机,那就需要新的技术变革。之前的二十年,正好赶上了PC互联网和移动互联网,美股也借此诞生出了一堆超级龙头,下一个十年也需要技术变革才能改变未来现状。这或许是你应该思考的投资方向。

新能源、元宇宙、人工智能、自动驾驶或者其他前沿科技,正逐渐吸引市场大量的资金,这或许也是超级巨头引领美股这一轮牛市的深层次逻辑。因为市场已经预知到经济衰退周期已经到来,只有科技创新才能创造新的增长机遇,而超级巨头恰恰是最具创新精神的。


华尔街传奇投资人杰里米·格兰瑟姆曾警告称,美国股市正处于“巨大的泡沫”中,史上最长牛市濒临尾声,警惕多资产泡沫破裂,但这一轮极致抱团行情何时会结束?并不是我们当前需要考虑的问题,当前需要考虑是远离成长股再次腰斩的可能性风险。毕竟巨头即使有回落,它们在强劲基本面的支撑下,回调幅度也不会太大。在美联储没有实质加息,市场流动性泛滥的基础下,每一次巨头下跌都会是抄底机会。


距离我们对巨头的极端估值,当前还有不小的上涨空间,所以我们的观点仍然保持不变,抱紧巨头,这已经成为当前市场唯一的选择。

5 COMMON MISTAKES NEW SKIERS MAKE!!!

Nov. 21, 2021

Here is the link. 

Being a new skier can be very hard, but by avoiding these 5 mistakes you can make it so much easier! Skiing is meant to be enjoyed, so you should be doing everything you can to make sure it's a great experience!

Take my notes:

  1. Take it slow. Make slow progress.
  2. Skier in the front of you has the right way.
  3. Not learning the rules of mountain.
  4. Google it before you go.
  5. Take some professional lessons.
  6. Do not put others into risk.
  7. Slow zone, merge way, and a lot of rules.
  8. Not considering the weather into account.
  9. Day night, go to day time, weather is good. Help them enjoy them.
  10. Nice and warm, snow is soft

How to Ski - What you need to know for your first day || REI

Nov. 21, 2021

Here is the link. 

Ready to hit the slopes? We partnered with Robin Barnes of the Professional Ski Instructors of America (PSIA) to teach you the basics. In this video, we cover everything from your ski stance to controlling your speed with a wedge and connecting turns down the mountain. What you need to know: Stance and how to stay balanced - 0:36 The basic Wedge position - 1:33 Walking uphill with skis on - 2:53 Turning with a Wedge - 5:32 Linking Wedge turns - 7:26



HOW TO SKI | 10 BEGINNER SKILLS FOR THE FIRST DAY SKIING

 Nov. 21, 2021

Here is the link. 

In this video, you will learn 10 key skills and tips to learn how to ski. If you are hungry to learn to carv well, do nice short turns join one of our Ski Camps for Adults: https://stompittutorials.com/camps What you will learn in this tutorial: 00:37 Tip / Skill 1: Reading the slope map 01:14 Tip / Skill 2: Control your ski gear 03:29 Tip / Skill 3: Pushing and Skating 04:25 Tip / Skill 4: How to ride chairlifts and buttonlifts 06:05 Tip / Skill 5: How to walk uphill 07:03 Tip / Skill 6: How to stand up after a crash 07:03 Tip / Skill 7: How to snow plow on skis 11:32 Tip / Skill 8: How to side slip on skis 13:44 Tip / Skill 9: Skidded parallel turns on skis 15:34 Tip / Skill 10: How to jump on skis


Ski Safety

Nov. 21, 2021

Here is the link. 

Dr. Robert Khill

PCL - bend your knees - instructor tell

ACL anterior cruciate ligament - ACL - anterior cruciate ligament 


Safety tips: 

Six elements of phantom foot

  1. Uphill arm back;
  2. Skier off balance to the rear
  3. Hips below your knees
  4. Uphill ski un-weighted
  5. Weight on the inside edge of the downhill ski tail
  6. Upper body facing the downhill
6;21/9:33
  1. Arms forward
  2. Hands over the skis
  3. Feet together
Keep skis parallel to each other, do not cross
Trail merge - avoid injury, stop, wait for another to pass
Do not stop in the middle of trail - stop side of mountain of trail 
Do not know who is on the trail 
Do not stop in the middle of trail - stay on the side 









One day vacation: Grouse mountain skiing trip

 Nov. 21, 2021

Introduction

I like to join my friend to go to grouse mountain skiing. I need to prepare myself better for the first day trip. 

Check list

I like to write down a check list so that I can enjoy better the skiing experience. 

  1. Budgeting - $115 for ticket whole day - 9:00 AM to 4:00 PM 
  2. $51 for ticket, $64 for rental of skiing related stuff
  3. Annual pass - $649 - Need to evaluate how often I will go 
  4. Get to know more friends about skiing 
  5. Clothing, shoes, phone, and food for day trip 
  6. Safety concern, learn more about grouse mountain and skiing 
  7. Plan to spend whole day on skiing 

Friday, November 19, 2021

If I have a million US dollars

Nov. 19, 2021

Introduction

I like to write a short research topic called if I have a million US dollars. I am a 55 year old single Canadian citizen living in Vancouver, British Columbia. I do not own any valuable things in Canada, and rent a small bedroom and live frugal life starting from April 2010. 

If I have a million us dollars | What should I do next? 

I think that I have to think about more carefully, what I can do since I am 55 year old. 

  1. Lose 10 lb, and spend one hour a day to run 10 K; 
  2. I like to think about slowing down and do not need to work full time; 
  3. I will work on Leetcode algorithms one hour a day; 
  4. I will work on large distributed system one hour a day; 
  5. I will start to watch some movies and TV shows one hour a week; 
  6. I need to figure out where I can have a home in Canada. 
  7. I need to think about more about weight control. 
I do not have a million dollars. I have to figure out how to achieve better financial knowledge by learning on youtube.com. 

Keep working hard. I will figure out how to make things happen in my life. Stay healthy. Be happy.