Monday, June 20, 2022

VMWARE: Broadcom purchase plan | Analysis from Brian Madden

 

Brian Madden’s brutal and unfiltered thoughts on the Broadcom / VMware deal


Here is the article.  

  1. Broadcom is offering $142.50 per share. VMW last closed at $95.61 the day before news of this deal leaked, so that’s a REALLY high premium.
  2. in order for Broadcom to make this deal work, they will increase VMware’s EBITDA from $3.5B to $8.5B which they can only do by shredding the company.
  3. There will be massive layoffs. Massive. Maybe 25,000. This is not speculation. This is math.
  4. VMware revenue has been flat for a long time. While on paper it looks like they’ve been adding about $1B per year, in reality they bought that much of that growth through acquisitions. (Nicira, AirWatch, Heptio, Avi, Pivotal, Cloud Health, Carbon Black are the big ones off the top of my head.) 
  5. If the fully-staffed "future is rosy" VMware of the past 5 years couldn’t do it, why do you think that exponential revenue growth will suddenly start under PE-like ownership of Broadcom?
  6. Instead, Broadcom will find that extra $5B per year by pulling the “lower expenses” lever. What is VMware’s #1 expense? Employee compensation. (By a lot.) And what’s the #2 expense? Real estate (office leases).
  7. Broadcom currently has about double VMware's revenue ($27B vs $13B), but with about half the employees (20k versus 40k). So Broadcom today gets a 4x better return per employee than VMware. In Broadcom land, $13B in revenue should align to about 10,000 employees, not 40,000 (there's your 70% cut). Broadcom is not spending $70B for VMware to go from a $27B 20k employee company to a $40B 60k one.

Leetcode discuss: Negative | down votes | Three pages

June 20, 2022

I need to think about how to make improvements on my writing. Here are three pages of my Leetcode discuss posts with down votes. 




Follow up 

July 5, 2022

  1. I like to rewrite Maximum Subarray with downvotes 10. I will add all solutions in the discuss post, and make the post valuable for myself to review. Here is the link. 
  2. I also like to rewrite Reverse integer discuss post with downvotes 5. I will review the discuss post and make it valuable for myself to review. Here is the link. 
  3. I will work on discuss post: Search in Rotated sorted array with negative 3. I will think about how to make improvements. Here is the link. 
  4. Work on Median of two sorted arrays - in short future. Here is the link.
July 11, 2022
Leetcode 128. Longest Consecutive Sequence
Here is the link. 

July 29, 2022
Here are steps to work on discuss posts with downvotes:

  1. Review the discuss post, and work on writing skills, rewrite and also practice one more time, and learn some good ideas from others, and then delete the downvoted posts, and write a new one. 
  2. Keep watching the new post for one month, and then continue to make improvments if needed. 
  3. Work hard and try to write a simple discuss post. 

3 hours dinner - small talks about SJTU 84 class

 June 20, 2022

We had short get-together before Victor visted Alaska cruise trip. I just quickly take some notes about small talks. 

  1. One of friends used VMWARE. We talked about broadcome purchase of VMWARE. I read some articles here. VMWARE will have big layoff over 10,000 engineers. 
  2. Article is here:  https://www.1point3acres.com/bbs/thread-899214-1-1.html
  3. Brian Madden’s brutal and unfiltered thoughts on the Broadcom / VMware deal, here is the link. 
  4. Keep playing, addiction to trade, and expectation vs long term return
  5. Interviews, age discrimination and other topics 
  6. SP 500 vs individual stocks
  7. Equity research and other topics - travel during pandemic time, vaccine
  8. Other things - friends in California
  9. Visit all states in USA and travel in China



The 4-Hour Workweek

The 4-Hour Workweek

The 4-Hour Workweek: Escape 9–5, Live Anywhere, and Join the New Rich (2007) is a self-help book by Timothy Ferriss, an American writer, educational activist, and entrepreneur.[1] It deals with what Ferriss refers to as "lifestyle design", and repudiates the traditional "deferred" life plan in which people work grueling hours and take few vacations for decades and save money in order to relax after retirement. The book spent four years on The New York Times Best Seller List, was translated into 40 languages, and sold around 2.1 million copies.[2]


Background[edit]

Ferriss developed the ideas present in The 4-Hour Workweek (4HWW) while working 14-hour days at his sports nutrition supplement company, BrainQUICKEN.[3] Frustrated by the overwork and lack of free time, Ferriss took a 3-week sabbatical to Europe. During that time and continued travels throughout Europe, Asia, and South America, Ferriss developed a streamlined system of checking email once per day and outsourcing small daily tasks to virtual assistants.[4] His personal escape from a workaholic lifestyle was the genesis of the book.[5]

The format of The 4-Hour Workweek took shape during a series of lectures Ferriss delivered on high-tech entrepreneurship at Princeton University, his alma mater.[6] The lectures (and book) described Ferriss' own experiences in company automation and lifestyle development.[6]

Reception[edit]

The New York Times noted that Ferriss spends far more than 4 hours per week in blogging and self-promotion, which Ferriss describes as "evangelizing."[7] USA Today commented: "If it all sounds too good to be true, maybe it is. Or maybe not. Clearly, selective ignorance, farming out chores and applying the 80/20 principle have paid off for Ferriss."[8] Wired praised the book's ideas for remote work and its pre-retirement advice, but faulted it for "formulaic writing" and that "nearly every idea [is] taken to an extreme. No sense of work being anything more than a paycheck".[9] Some reviewers noted that the book was quite lengthy and hard to read.[10] Leslie Garner of The Telegraph noted that the book had a "punchy writing style" and that Ferriss had "struck a chord with his critique of workers' slavish devotion to corporations."[11] Meagan Day of Jacobin criticized the book for advising readers to "become a fake expert."[12] Jimmy Wales, cofounder of Wikipedia, said that he secretly moved to Argentina for a month after reading the book.[13]

The book received coverage also through Fast Company,[14] ABC News,[3] The Today Show, Newsweek,[15] and MSNBC.[16]


In popular culture[edit]

The book was mentioned in a 2011 episode of The Office, where Darryl Philbin, quite ironically, was using Ferriss’s ideas to help get more work done so that he could get promoted.[17]

Amin Ghafouri | Senior AI Researcher at Google Brain | Book recommended

JUN 24, 2017 

Hi Jianmin, it was nice talking to you again. I highly recommend this book to you to optimize your performance and reach what you desire.

 https://www.amazon.com/4-Hour-Workweek-Expanded-Updated-Cutting-Edge-ebook/dp/B002WE46UW Good luck!

Google makes business call easy

Google makes calling businesses less painful with features for seeing wait times, phone tree options and more 

Sarah Perez

Alongside today’s release of the new Pixel 6 smartphones, Google has again upgraded one of the device’s most basic — but often overlooked — functions: the ability to make phone calls. In previous years, Google Assistant learned to screen your calls and make your reservations by phone via a technology called Duplex. Last year, it learned how to wait on hold for you, too. Today, Google is expanding some of these existing features and adding new ones — including a tool that shows you the best time to call a business and a new Duplex-powered feature for navigating businesses’ phone trees.

With the Phone app on Pixel 6 and Pixel 6 Pro, a new feature called “Wait Times” will display the projected time it will take to get through to a person when dialing a toll-free number. You’ll be able to see this information before you place the call not only for the present time, but also for the rest of the week. This information may allow you to make a better decision about when to place the call.

Of course, in order to show this information, Google is leveraging its ability to collect data from its users. Similar to how Google Maps will show you when a business is the most crowded using anonymized data from Maps users, “Wait Times” are inferred from call length data when calls are placed through its phone app. This data is not linked to individual users, Google says.

Another new addition is the “Direct My Call” feature, which will help you get through complicated phone trees when you dial a business. Instead of listening and trying to remember the many options presented (e.g., “Press 1 for hours and locations”), Google Assistant will translate the automated messages for you. This allows you to read back through the options to see which number you’ll want to tap to get the information you need — or to reach a live agent, as is often the case.

In the past, users frustrated with difficult customer service calls may have turned to third-party apps and websites like GetHuman, to figure out how to reach a real person more quickly. But these websites aren’t always up to date. “Direct My Call” offers an alternative. You could multitask or even set your phone down while the various options are read aloud — something that’s tedious to have to listen to in real time. When you return to the phone, you’ll be able to read the options available and choose the one you need. (The feature could also help those who are hard of hearing, but who don’t yet require a TTY.)

Like the the earlier reservation-setting feature, “Direct My Call” is also powered by Google Duplex technology.

Duplex is sometimes confused with the reservation scheduling feature itself, which was one of the first big use cases for the technology when it debuted. But Duplex itself doesn’t just enable natural-sounding conversations for making your appointments. It can be used for understanding, too. In the case of “Direct My Call,” for example, Duplex uses advanced speech recognition and language understanding models to help determine when the business wants you to do something — like press a number, say a word (like “representative”) or enter your account number, among other things.

In addition to “Direct My Call” and “Wait Times,” which are launching with the Pixel devices, for the time being, Google is also expanding access to “Hold for Me.”

Since launching last year in the U.S., the feature has saved users over 1.5 million minutes per month. In the coming months, it will begin to roll out to Pixel users in Australia, Canada and Japan, as well, says Google. 

Meanwhile, Google’s existing call screening functions are also getting an upgrade.

Before, Google’s own caller ID coverage would help users to identify spam and other calls from unknown numbers. Now, it will allow users to contribute data about their incoming business calls, too. That means you’ll be able to share what type of business had called you (e.g., bill collectors, finance, utilities, etc.) so that others who receive the same call in the future will know what to expect. This data is shared without any personal identifiers, notes Google. The company believes this will help double the number of businesses with caller ID information going forward.

In addition, call screening will expand to more markets. In the U.S., Canada and Japan, it’s now screening 37 million calls per month. Starting today, it will roll out to Pixel users in the U.K., France, Germany, Australia, Ireland, Italy and Spain, too.

Typically, Google releases new features to its latest Pixel phones first, before rolling them out over time to more Pixel devices or Android more broadly. That means “Wait Times” and “Direct My Call” will likely be exclusive to Pixel 6 phones for some time, initially.


Amex Travel: Business class | 75% reimbursement on nonrefundable trips

American Express Will Let You Cancel Your Flight for Any Reason & Refund You

 

The new Amex Travel feature gets you a 75% reimbursement on nonrefundable trips.

Published on 5/9/2022 at 2:51 PM

Airline cancellation policies are the worst, especially now that the industry's pandemic-era flexibility has come and gone. But even if you book a flight with an air-tight no refund clause, American Express has your back. 

Cardholders will now be able to cancel flights on any airline for any reason. When you book through Amex Travel, you will be able to cancel and receive up to a 75% reimbursement on nonrefundable flights, the credit card company announced.

The new feature, dubbed Trip Cancel Guard, gives you up to two calendar days before the departure date to cancel and receive that large chunk of change back. According to Travel + Leisure, it's available for all Amex cardholders.

"People are eager to travel, and as demand increases, there is a greater need to plan ahead. At the same time, a level of uncertainty still exists in this [ever changing] travel environment," President of American Express travel Audrey Hendley said in a statement, according to the outlet. "With 'Trip Cancel Guard,' we're continuing to back our customers by giving them the value we know they want, along with the confidence to book flights with the flexibility to cancel for any reason if their plans change." 

Before the rollout, American Express had allowed Platinum cardholders to cancel trips due to illness or injury and COVID-19 quarantines. But now, you don't even need an excuse. 

Annual fees, however, have risen. The American Express Platinum Card will run you $695 a year versus the previous $550 charge but includes a host of new travel-related benefits like a $200 hotel credit, $179 credit for Clear, and free access to 1,300 airport lounges.

U.S. drops COVID testing for incoming international air travelers

 

U.S. drops COVID testing for incoming international air travelers



WASHINGTON, June 10 (Reuters) - The United States late Friday rescinded a 17-month-old requirement that people arriving in the country by air test negative for COVID-19, a move that follows intense lobbying by airlines and the travel industry.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky issued a four-page order lifting the mandate, effective at 12:01 a.m. ET (0400 GMT) Sunday, saying it is "not currently necessary."

The requirement had been one of the last major U.S. COVID-19 travel requirements. Its end comes as the summer travel season kicks off, and airlines were already preparing for record demand. Airlines have said that many Americans have not been not traveling internationally because of concerns they will test positive and be stranded abroad.

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra said the CDC decision is based on science and available data, and said the agency "will not hesitate to reinstate a pre-departure testing requirement, if needed later."

The CDC will reassess the decision in 90 days, an administration official said.

The United States has required incoming international air travelers to provide pre-departure negative tests since January 2021. In December the CDC tightened the rule to require travelers to test negative within one day before flights to the United States rather than three days.

The CDC has not required testing for land border crossings.

Many countries in Europe and elsewhere have already dropped testing requirements.

The CDC is still requiring most non-U.S. citizens to be vaccinated against COVID to travel to the United States.

Two officials told Reuters the Biden administration had considered lifting the testing rule only for vaccinated travelers.

JetBlue Airways (JBLU.O) Chief Executive Robin Hayes told Reuters on Friday that the testing requirement was "the last obstacle to a really full international travel recovery," saying that it "served no purpose anymore."

IATA, the world's biggest airline trade group, said it was "great news" that the administration is "removing the ineffective pre-departure COVID test for travel to the US."

In April, a federal judge declared the CDC's requirements that travelers wear masks on airplanes and in transit hubs like airports unlawful and the Biden administration stopped enforcing it. The Justice Department has appealed the order, but no decision is likely before fall at the earliest.

The CDC continues to recommend travelers wear masks and get COVID-19 tests before and after international flights.

Raymond James said in a research note that lifting the restrictions "is an important catalyst for international travel."

Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) Chief Executive Ed Bastian told Reuters last week that dropping the requirements will boost travel, noting that 44 of 50 countries Delta serves do not require testing.

U.S. Travel Association CEO Roger Dow said Friday's move will "accelerate the recovery of the U.S. travel industry," which was hard hit by the pandemic.

Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Leslie Adler

Young Kim | Sabre Red 360 - Next Generation POS for Travel Agency

Here is the link. 

Sabre red workspace

Challenges

  • Multiple system interactions to complete an end-to-end booking
  • Numerous manual activities throughout the consultant workflow
  • Unorganized and disparate content limits seamless cross-selling and up-selling
  • Non-commissionable fares compete with your own special fares at the point of sale


Goals / Objectives

  • Eliminate the perceived gap with competitor’s Point of Sale Solution and win 20 million bookings, worth over $100 million in annual revenue
  • 8 week design sprint to deliver screen mockups depicting end-to-end leisure oriented workflows
  • 6 month agile development plan to deliver a working code solution for beta test ready

Results

  • Based on the success of the pilot test, Sabre won the Australian business ($1.4 Billion over ten years).
  • Flight Centre was able to complete onboarding six months ahead of schedule. In the six months following the rollout, they reported an 8.7% increase in Total Transaction Value. In the first year, they reported a 23.3% increase in profits, totaling $32MM.

Ethan Harris | Managing Director | Head of North America Economics

 Ethan Harris is head of North America Economics and the coordinator for Global Economics at BofA Merrill Lynch Research. In this role, he is responsible for formulating and communicating the North America economic outlook and the Federal Reserve policy projection. As coordinator for Global Economics, Mr. Harris manages the teams that develop and articulate BofA Merrill Lynch forecasts and strategies outside of North America, and the outlook for their central banks. He also works in close partnership with the Rates Strategy Research team on longer term yield curve forecasts. 

Mr. Harris is highly recognized in his field and most recently ranked No.1 in the 2008 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting survey. He has also been named to the Institutional Investor All-America Fixed-Income Research Team for the past six years, placing No.2 in 2007. Previously, Mr. Harris worked at Barclays, formerly Lehman Brothers, where he was the chief U.S. Economist since 2003. Prior to joining Lehman Brothers in 1996, Mr. Harris worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for nine years where he served as the research officer in charge of the Domestic Division and as the assistant to the President of the Bank. Previously, he worked for several years as an international economist at J.P. Morgan. Mr. Harris is the author of Ben Bernanke's Fed: The Federal Reserve After Greenspan. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University, where he was a University Fellow.

ETHAN HARRIS |

 Ethan Harris is the head of global economics research at Bank of America Securities. In this role, he is responsible for the US growth, inflation, and monetary policy call.


He also coordinates the global economics forecast and publication and manages the developed markets economics team. Harris regularly ranks highly in investor polls and forecast surveys.

Before coming to BofA, Harris was the chief US economist at Lehman Brothers. He also worked as an economist at Barclays and JP Morgan and spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he was assistant to the president and head of the Domestic Research Division.

Harris earned a bachelor's degree in economics from Clark University and a PhD in economics from Columbia University, where he was a University Fellow. Harris is the author of Ben Bernanke's Fed: The Federal Reserve after Greenspan.

Bear market: Federal reserve

 

Look for more selling pressure in week ahead as investors learn the hard way not to fight the Fed