Friday, January 13, 2023

Delta air lines | Earnings date update

 Delta Air Lines

 fourth-quarter profit and revenue topped expectations on Friday, but shares fell on the carrier’s outlook for the first quarter.

Delta said it expects to earn 15 cents to 40 cents a share on an adjusted basis in the first quarter of 2023 and for its sales to increase 14% to 17% over the same quarter of 2019, with capacity down 1% from four years earlier.

But it said unit costs, stripping out fuel, will likely increase 3% to 4% from 2022, including for labor and rebuilding its network. Delta’s pilots union is reviewing a contract proposal this week that includes raises topping 30% over four years.

Delta reiterated its full-year 2023 earnings estimate of $5 to $6 a share.

The company’s shares were down more than 3% in early trading Friday.

Here’s how Delta performed in the fourth quarter, compared with Wall Street expectations based on Refinitiv consensus estimates:

  • Adjusted earnings per share: $1.48 vs. $1.33 expected.
  • Adjusted revenue: $12.29 billion, excluding refinery sales, vs. $12.23 billion expected.

The airline generated $13.44 billion in total sales for the final three months of 2022, 17% higher than the $11.44 billion it brought in three years earlier.

High costs ate away at some of Delta’s profits, but its net income still totaled $828 million, down from $1.1 billion in the same three-month period of 2019, but on 9% less flying than three years earlier. It was a sign of travelers’ willingness to continue booking, even at high fares, which more than made up for the increased expenses.

Delta’s operating costs rose 19% in the fourth quarter from 2019, including a $2.8 billion fuel bill, up 42% from 2019.

Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in a news release that the carrier “rose to the challenges of 2022, delivering industry-leading operational reliability and financial performance.”

Bastian told CNBC that demand for premium products has remained robust. In the airline’s release, it said that premium revenue, which includes seats in first class, rose 13% in the last quarter, 8 points above sales growth from the main cabin.

Delta has been cracking down on crowding in its luxury airport lounges, the result of strong demand for rewards credit cards and travelers with elite status. Next month it will raise the requirements for entry, and this week, said it is curbing employee access to Sky Clubs.

Airlines have largely been upbeat about the fourth quarter, despite concerns about a recession and weakness from some retailers and other businesses. On Thursday, American Airlines hiked its revenue and profit forecast for the period, sparking a broad rally in the sector.

That was even after severe winter weather disrupted flights coast to coast over the year-end holidays, prompting mass cancellations. Southwest Airlines in particular struggled to recover and said its meltdown could cost it more than $800 million. American and Southwest are scheduled to report on Jan. 26.

“There was a lot of customers looking for airlines given some of the Southwest challenges, and we got a benefit from that,” Bastian said in an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Thursday, January 12, 2023

猴哥财经 | 美股 | 2022最准大神再发话,现在开始清仓!

Here is the link.


Truth is there have been buyers over the last few weeks, says Aureus's Karen Firestone

Here is the link.


After December's trash fire, markets are optimistic, says Ritholtz's Josh Brown

Jan. 12, 2022

Here is the link. 

A mid-day market discussion following a 0.1 percent decline in the CPI. With CNBC's Scott Wapner and the 'Halftime Report' investment committee, Odyssey Capital Advisor's Jason Snipe, Aureus Asset Management's Karen Firestone, DCLA's Sarat Sethi and Cerity's Jim Lebenthal. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2NGeIvi

Blackrock.com | 全球资管巨头贝莱德加入裁员大潮!

 华尔街裁员风暴仍在持续。


继摩根士丹利(89.43,0.51,0.57%)、高盛(364.48,7.12,1.99%)、瑞信、野村证券等公司之后,本周三,媒体报道全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德(755.92,-1.36,-0.18%)计划裁员500人,约占其员工总数的2.5%,其中1/3被裁岗位在美国。不过,贝莱德目前还未公开此次大规模裁员具体将涉及哪些部门。

据媒体报道,贝莱德CEO Larry Fink和董事会主席Rob Kapito在昨日给员工的内部信中表示:

“我们将更有针对性地重塑团队,我们打算调整我们的员工队伍,确保大家和公司的战略优先事项时刻保持一致,我们会为公司内部的大量人才创造更多更好的发展机遇。”

刚刚过去的2022年堪称华尔街的噩梦,以美联储为首的全球央行从利率历史低点一路加息,导致借贷成本飙升,全球经济活动降温;同时,俄乌冲突又扰乱了供应链和能源市场。

实体经济下行,让资管机构的生意也更难做,华尔街见闻此前报道,去年前9个月,美国五大银行的交易和承销收入下降了47%,而纳斯达克(10931.6712,189.04,1.76%)银行指数去年暴跌近30%。连一向稳定的债券市场都迎来了40年一遇的熊市。

包括贝莱德在内的华尔街经济学家和策略师普遍预测,随着经济增长放缓和各国央行为抑制通胀而加息,经济形势还会持续恶化。

贝莱德CFO Gary Shedlin在上个月初的一次行业会议上表示,贝莱德投资研究部门的观点“非常明确”,该机构认为经济衰退“只是时间问题”。

贝莱德为全球最大资产管理公司,其收入主要来自管理费。但在2022年前9个月,其管理的资产从9.5万亿美元降至7.96万亿美元,较上年同期下降16%,收入同比下降了15%。贝莱德的股价去年全年也下跌了22.6%。

早在去年10月,当公司三季报显示其利润与管理资产规模双双下滑时,贝莱德已经冻结了大部分招聘。另外,据媒体援引知情人士说法,当时贝莱德的人力部门就已经开始着手准备裁员名单。

2020年以来,贝莱德的员工人数大幅上升。最新财报显示,截至9月30日,贝莱德共有19990名员工。比2022年前9个月增加了8.2%,比2019年底增加了23%。

如今,随着冻结招聘、裁员等一系列缩减开支的措施,贝莱德预计今年其管理费用增幅将收窄至13%-15%,低于此前15%至20%的预测值。

PSFE stock

 


Wednesday, January 11, 2023

RoseHosting: The fastest LAMP hosting anywhere

Here is the article. 

The best open-source stack, fully managed for you. 

  • Unlimited migrations
  • 24/7 fully managed support
  • Ultra-fast NVMe storage
  • LAMP optimization
  • 100% uptime SLA - 10x money back

How To Set Up Redis as a Cache for MySQL with PHP on Ubuntu 20.04

Here is the article. 

Redis is an open-source and in-memory data structure store that can be used for caching, real-time analytics, searching, and machine learning. Integrate Redis with PHP and MySQL will improve your application performance because Redis stores data in RAM.

You can use it with databases like MySQL or MariaDB. Redis provides a mechanism to cache your queries. For example, when a user requests your application page the first time, a MySQL query is performed on the server, and Redis caches this query to RAM. When another user requests the same page, you don’t need to query the database again.

Step 1 - Step 4 skipped

Step 5: Create a PHP Application to Fetch Data from MySQL

set up redis as a cache for mysql with php on ubuntu

Next, you will need to create a PHP application and host it with an Apache webserver. This application will connect to the MySQL database and query the student table which we have created earlier.

First, create a PHP application in the Apache web root directory:

nano /var/www/html/student.php

Add the following codes:

Step 6: Test Redis Caching

Step 6: Test Redis Caching

Next, you will need to test whether the Redis caching is working or not. Open your web browser and access your application using the URL

http://your-server-ip/student.php. When you access the application first time, it should fetch from the MySQL database. When you access the application again, it should open faster because you will get data from the Redis cache.

how to configure redis as a cache for mysql with php on ubuntu 20.04

Of course, you don’t have to install setup Redis with MySQL if you use one of our Managed Redis Hosting, in which case you can simply ask our expert Linux admins to install and configure this for you. They are available 24×7 and will take care of your request immediately.

Sabr stock | Earnings date in 2023

 February 21, 2023

Look out for SABR's next earnings release expected on February 21, 2023. For the next earning release, we expect the company to report earnings of -$0.31 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 34.04%.

B of A Securities Downgrades Sabre to Underperform, Lowers Price Target to $7

Tuesday, January 10, 2023

Binance CEO 赵长鹏

 摘要:赵长鹏,英文名CZ,币安CEO和比捷科技CEO。

赵长鹏,英文名CZ,币安CEO和比捷科技CEO,出生于江苏,父母都是教育工作者。他的父亲是一名大学教授,上世纪80年代末,他们全家移民至加拿大温哥华,在温哥华接受教育。他曾担任过彭博社技术总监;后创立富讯信息技术有限公司,他不仅创始人,也是中国区总裁。赵长鹏还曾以联合创始人的身份加入OKCoin,出任CTO,管理过OKCoin的技术团队,并负责OKCoin的国际市场团队,迅速建立了OKCoin的国际影响力。

 

41岁的赵长鹏是标准的程序员出身,喜欢钻研技术,平时和扎克伯格、乔布斯等人一样喜欢休闲装,穿着黑色卫衣,样子介乎扎克伯格和乔布斯之间。

 

赵长鹏的唯一爱好是手机(他拥有3部手机)。他于2014年卖掉了上海的房子,全仓投入比特币。他也没有任何汽车、游艇或名表。在那些因加密货币发财的人之中,赵长鹏属于建设者阵营。


从十几岁时候开始,赵长鹏就开始承担家庭开支,他在麦当劳当过店员,也曾在加油站熬夜工作。


在蒙特利尔的麦吉尔大学学习计算机科学之后,赵长鹏曾前往东京和纽约。他最初为东京股票交易所开发了用于匹配交易订单的系统,随后又在彭博Tradebook开发期货交易软件。
27岁时,这名编程奇才就已经在不到2年内获得了3次晋升,负责管理位于新泽西、伦敦和东京的庞大团队。然而,这时他却变得不耐烦。
2005年,他选择了辞职,搬到上海,成立了自己的公司Fusion Systems。该公司为券商开发速度最快的高频交易系统。


随后2013年,赵长鹏从一名扑克牌友,也是风险投资人那里了解到了比特币。他开始涉足多个不同的加密货币项目。


例如,他加入过加密货币钱包Blockchain.info的团队,成为团队的第三号成员。
在负责产品开发的8个月时间里,他与知名比特币布道者罗杰·维尔(Roger Ver)和本·里弗斯(Ben Reeves)走得很近。


此外,他还曾在法定货币和数字货币之间的交易平台OKCoin担任首席技术官不到一年时间。
一直以来,赵长鹏都在考虑,自行提供纯粹的数字资产交易平台,而不涉及法定货币。维尔对他说,如果不与金融机构发生联系,那么风险和监管复杂性都会更低。


2018年2月,福布斯发布了首个数字货币领域富豪榜,Ripple创始人Chris Larsen 以75-80亿美元身家排名第一;币安创始人赵长鹏位列第三,身家估值11-20亿美元,为前十名中唯一的中国人。并登上本期福布斯杂志封面。


对于这一榜单,赵长鹏也在其个人社交平台发文回应:“能登上(福布斯)封面是我的荣幸。这是整个团队20年来努力的成果,而不只是我一个人的成果。非常感谢福布斯团队。”


币圈一日,人间十年。说的是这个行业的时间密度,说的是区块链积攒财富的速度。没错,这个圈子里面有着太多的造富神话,让你觉得不可思议的事情,每天,都在发生!

而赵长鹏更是深谙此理,并且是其中的佼佼者,他从一名“码农”变成亿万富翁,只用了180天时间,通过提供虚拟货币资产交易平台服务,积攒了20亿美元(约合人民币125亿元)的财富,创造了币圈最快的赚钱神话。

 

赵长鹏早年主业是为交易所搭建网络交易系统。2014年,赵长鹏卖掉了在上海的住房,拿全部资金押注比特币。他随后成为了当时中国最大比特币交易平台OK Coin的联合创始人和首席技术官(CTO)。


随后由于一系列争议事件,赵长鹏离开了OK Coin。
2017年7月,赵长鹏领导一群数字资产爱好者创建了币安平台,而这真正开启了他的暴富之路。


用六个月的时间将币安打造为全球数字资产交易平台前三甲,注册用户超600万,成为全球最大的虚拟货币综合交易平台,其中美国玩币的炒家约30%使用币安网。币安网同时也发行了自己的区块链货币“币安币”(BNB),宣称总量恒定为2亿个,保证永不增发。据官网介绍,包括赵长鹏在内的创始团队持有币安币总量的40%。


短短6个月的时间赵长鹏就创造了100多亿的财富,这绝对是一个神话!


4641 128 Avenue NE, Calgary, AB

 $265,000

Compared to August, 2021, the price is up over $30,000 Canadian dollars. 

4641 128 Avenue NE

Type
 
Residential
Sub-Type
 
Apartment
Style
 
High-Rise (5+), Apartment, Residential, High Rise (5+ stories)
Title
 
Fee Simple
MLS® Number
 
A2015757
Year Built
 
2020
Stories
 
6
Full Baths
 
2
Parking Info
 
1
Association Fee
 
$291.84 CAD
Neighborhood
 
Skyview Ranch
Postal Code
 
T3N 1T3
Rooms Information

Apple.com | Peter Stern

 北京时间1月10日早间消息,据报道,知情人士称,苹果公司负责网络视频、云存储、“Apple One”捆绑套餐、以及苹果新闻业务的高管彼得·斯特恩(Peter Stern)已经从公司离职,这个消息给苹果公司最近的高层人事动荡,又增添了一笔。


斯特恩之前的正式职务,是苹果负责服务业务的副总裁。在公司内部和外部的许多人看来,斯特恩极有可能是苹果资深高管艾迪库(负责服务业务的高级副总裁)的潜在接班人。

由于苹果官方尚未宣布斯特恩离职的消息,因此知情人士并未披露身份。消息人士表示,在斯特恩离职之后,苹果采取了一些应对措施,把斯特恩的工作职责分配给了其他多名高管,其中包括奥利佛·苏瑟(Oliver Schusser)和罗伯特·康俊科(Robert Kondrk)。

在这一次工作职责调整之前,苏瑟是苹果负责苹果音乐、国际服务和子公司Beats的副总裁,康俊科则主要负责苹果服务业务的设计团队,这些团队负责设计各种服务产品的用户界面。

有关斯特恩离职的消息,苹果官方尚未对新闻界发表任何评论。

据报道,在过去几个月的时间里,苹果公司发生了一次高管离职潮,斯特恩的离职,成为最新的一个案例。

在2022年下半年,苹果公司损失了多名高管,其中包括工业设计负责人、首席隐私官、信息系统负责人、网络商店的负责人、负责采购的副总裁,以及负责硬件业务和软件工程的副总裁。

据报道,在苹果公司最近流失的高管中,斯特恩的影响比较大。在他任期下,苹果一直在扩张其会员费性质的服务业务,另外在“Apple TV”视频平台软件中,苹果正在和更多的外部网络视频服务商展开合作,另外苹果一个新计划是推出不同服务产品的捆绑套餐,通过定价优惠增加用户规模。

在艾迪库和斯特恩两个高管的领导下,苹果公司的服务业务成为一颗冉冉上升的明星,目前已经成为苹果最重要的部门之一。根据苹果财报数字,在2022财政年度,苹果的服务业务一共贡献了大约800亿美元的销售收入。

据悉,苏瑟也是有可能取代艾迪库的另外一位接班人人选,在此次工作职责调整后,苏瑟在苹果公司内部的地位和影响力将会攀升。

艾迪库是苹果公司资深高管,他今年已经年满58岁,已经在苹果工作了30多年时间,不过他本人尚未宣布何时退休。据报道,在过去几年的时间里,艾迪库一直在寻找负责苹果服务业务的接班人人选。

据悉,在苹果管理层架构中,一共有12名高管直接向艾迪库汇报工作,其中包括了斯特恩。这12名高管负责的业务中包括苹果网络视频、苹果支付、网络广告,以及涉及到服务业务的软件开发等等。

之前,也有其他美国科技媒体报道了斯特恩离职的消息。

FTX bankruptcy

 Here is the article. 

  • FTX released a list of its equity holders on Monday as it continues to navigate the bankruptcy process.

  • Some of the top holders of FTX equity included in the list are Tom Brady, Robert Kraft, and Gisele Bündchen.

  • The FTX shares owned by Brady, Kraft, and Bündchen are expected to be worthless.

The spectacular implosion of FTX has led to big investment losses for football star Tom Brady, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, and fashion model Gisele Bündchen.

As part of its ongoing bankruptcy process, FTX released a list of its top equity holders on Monday, detailing just how many investors are set to be completely wiped out from the downfall of the crypto exchange.

The document revealed that Brady, who was a brand ambassador for FTX and appeared in a commercial for the company, owns just over 1.1 million common shares of FTX. Meanwhile, Bündchen, who is Brady's ex-wife, owns just under 700,000 common shares of FTX.

Billionaire Robert Kraft, who owns the New England Patriots football team, was also listed in the FTX bankruptcy document. Through KPC Venture Capital, Kraft owns over 110,000 Series B preferred shares of FTX Trading, as well as 479,000 common shares and about 44,000 Series A preferred shares of West Realm Shires, the company that controls FTX's US-based exchange.

Other investors on FTX's equity-holder list include Wall Street's elite hedge funds and growth investors, according to the bankruptcy document.

Well-known funds run by Tiger Global, Thoma Bravo, Sequoia Capital, SkyBridge, and Third Point, among others, were listed as owning millions of both common and preferred shares of FTX.

Those investments are now virtually worthless, representing a steep fall from FTX's peak valuation of about $32 billion. During typical bankruptcy proceedings, only bond holders are able to recoup some of their losses, while equity investors are usually wiped out entirely.

John Ray III, the new FTX CEO who is handling the company's restructuring, said last month, "At the end of the day, we're not going to be able to recover all of the losses here."

And those losses don't necessarily mean just investor losses, but could also entail the money lost by FTX customers who deposited their money on the platform. It turns out that those funds were not sitting on the FTX platform, but were instead being transferred to FTX's sister crypto trading firm, Alameda Research.

Meta stock

 这是公开信息:https://wwwsecgov/Archives/edgformationstatemhtm

3/1/2023会新发售4亿股;市场上现在有约26亿股, 所以大约会稀释15%. 

单股股价按比例的话应该会跌15%左右, 小札自己持有35亿股ClassB股票. 这种股票一股有10股的投票权, 所以他一个人的投票权占了60%, 完全左右董事会的决定, 所以除非他自己辞职, 这个公司他说了算.

Meta限价$120左右, 稀释15%会到$100, 为啥发售新股?

筹钱呗, 就算大家不愿买, 股价跌到$50一股, 4亿股也能新筹集200亿美元;应该够发今年的员工工资了, Meta现在有7万多员工: 工资, 奖金, Refresher股票(每年3月发), 特殊股票(DE等), 需要很多钱, 就算平均一个员工20万(高层每年收入上亿), 也得150亿美元.

新发的股票应该够了. 感觉有点像借债发工资的意思哈哈.


Monday, January 9, 2023

华尔街新年寒气逼人:高盛本周裁员约3200人

 在过去几个月,有关高盛(348.08,4.32,1.26%)即将大裁员的传言就一直弥漫于华尔街,而这一天显然很快就要到来了……


据当地媒体报道,高盛集团本周就将正式启动其有史以来规模最大的裁员行动之一,这家华尔街顶尖投行已敲定了本周裁减约3200个职位的计划,这也预示着高盛此轮的裁员力度将比其主要华尔街竞争对手都要大。

据一位知情人士透露,高盛预计将在周中启动裁员流程,受影响的总人数最多将达到3200人。其中超过三分之一可能来自其核心的交易和银行部门,这表明裁员的范围很广。

知情人士表示,该公司还准备公布一项与其信用卡和分期贷款业务相关的新部门的财务状况,该部门料将录得超过20亿美元的税前亏损。

此前,高盛首席执行官所罗门(David Solomon)在上月致员工的一封公开信中就曾表示,该行正准备在未来几周内进行裁员。

目前,高盛正寻求扭转最近的扩张势头,并缩减在消费金融领域的雄心。所罗门当时在信中表示,“影响商业前景的因素有很多,包括正在放缓经济活动的收紧的货币环境。对我们的领导团队来说,重点是让公司做好抵御这些逆风的准备。”

数据显示,近年来高盛在部门员工中增加了大量的非前台岗位,高盛的员工人数自2018年底以来增长了34%,截至去年9月30日,总员工人数已达到了逾4.9万人。

然而,各条业务线的放缓,昂贵的消费银行业务,以及市场和经济的不确定前景,都促使高盛如今不得不压缩成本。

整个华尔街的兼并活动和为公司筹集资金的活跃度都受到了打击,资产价格的下滑也使高盛一年前还曾仰赖的另一个巨大收益来源(交易业务)荡然无存。同时,这些行业趋势,由于该行在零售银行业务方面的决策失误而变得更为加复杂。

分析师目前已预计,高盛2022年的营收和利润下滑速度将快于摩根大通(137.94,2.59,1.91%)、摩根士丹利(87.56,1.64,1.91%)、美国银行(34.41,0.34,1.00%)和其他更多元化的投行竞争对手,该行的利润在过去一年里或将大幅下滑46%。

高盛预计在下周二(1月17日)公布季度财报,而摩根大通、花旗集团、富国银行(42.8,0.38,0.90%)、美国银行等将于本周五公布季报。

寒气逼人

高盛最新的裁员举措,也揭示出即使是像高盛这样的华尔街巨头,同样将不得不在新年伊始承受痛苦,因为在过去一年中,整个公司的业绩难以达到与股东们设定的目标。

业绩的低迷表现在名为平台解决方案(Platform Solutions)的新部门中体现得尤为明显,该部门的亏损数据在整体部门细分中最为突出。贷款损失拨备放大了该部门总计20多亿美元的损失。

值得一提的是,高盛上一次采取如此大规模的裁员行动,还要追溯到2008年雷曼危机之后。当时高盛启动了一项裁员3000多人的计划,约占员工总数的近10%,同时公司的高层管理人员也被迫放弃了他们的奖金。

而鉴于此次裁员也是在高盛传统的年终薪酬评定前一周进行的,这预示着即使是那些留在公司的人,预计薪酬数字也会大幅下降,特别是在投资银行业务部门。据知情人士早前预计,在裁员中幸存下来的投资银行家,可能面临40%或更多的奖金削减。

这无疑将与去年初形成鲜明对比,当时高盛员工的奖金大幅增加,少数人甚至获得了特别奖。根据去年的统计,高盛CEO所罗门在2021年3500万美元的薪酬,曾使他与摩根士丹利的James Gorman并列成为了当年美国大型银行薪酬最高的首席执行官。

华尔街日报: 压垮动态清零的最后一根稻草:地方官的绝望要求

 《华尔街日报》揭露,这个史无前例的公共卫生政策急转弯,触发点除了是中国几个最大城市爆发了罕见的抗议浪潮,更关键是来自多个政府部门发出紧急请求,显示他的动态清零政策正成为社会不稳定和经济动荡的一个根源,最终促使习近平改变了立场。

过去两年因为实施封控让中国付出了高昂代价,国内出口和零售销售大大减少,地方财政捉襟见肘,部分民众被逼到几乎崩溃的地步。

但真正令习近平作出让步,是中国经历三年防疫后,地方财政巳消耗殆尽,地方官员已发出“绝望要求”,包括地方政府的“城投债”已出现“第一滴血”,贵州省遵义市的地方融资平台“遵义道桥”,这间全国城投四强因无法还款及支付利息,宣布把债务延期20年,首10年更是还息不还本,还款利息也从原来的7.5%大降至3.5%,变相“赖帐”,意味债权人及持债银行要“Hair Cut”(削债大出血),单计账面利息损失已超过100亿人民币。

城投债指的是“城市建设投资公司债务”,自2008年起流行,属地方债之一种,其特色是并非由政府直接借款,而是由政府设立的“城投公司”作为融资平台,通常用于发展基建项目。城投债表面上不属政府债务,实际上往往由地方政府提供100%担保,无非是玩弄“金融财技”,将地方政府债务隐藏。

特别是2019年抗疫以来,各地政府严重赤字,“表内债务”早已借爆灯,部分地方政府遂依赖城投债支撑营运。据华安证券统计,全国城投债在2018年馀额约6.8万亿人民币,去年中增加至14.7万亿人民币,即过去三四年暴增逾倍,当中不少款项据估计用于核酸检测、聘请大白等抗疫支出。

据国家财政部去年底公布,全国地方政府表内债务已达35.2万亿人民币,连同城投债总额接近50万亿人民币,中央政府恐怕“爱莫能助”。

三年防疫掏空国库,地方债“爆煲”恐陆续有来

最近不断传出各地方基层公务员拿不到工资,反映地方政府早已债台高筑,加上防疫和核酸检测的费用,连一线城市的财政状况也到了危险水平,中国三年防疫将地方债务泡沫推向爆破边缘。中央政府财赤同样严峻,甚至最近要破天荒由人行“印钱”购入中央财政国债,料会造成滥印货币,继而推高通胀,将危机转移到百姓身上。

综合多家外国传媒与经济学家估计,中国全年的财政支出达24万亿人民币,单是防疫开支就佔了总财政支出的三分之一,即近八万亿人民币。

这个防疫使费,与彭博统计去年首11个月,中国的财政赤字达到7.75万亿人民币相近,即是库房掏空都是使在核酸及大白身上,反而提升医疗设备的开支却减少了。有经济学家甚至估算,去年政府财政赤字或超过10万亿人民币,早已超越警戒线。

虽然中国官方一再强调政府债务可控,财赤佔GDP比重可以控制在3%左右目标水平,但明眼人都知这个数据严重不可信,事实上计及地方政府债务,彭博统计出过去三年财赤佔GDP比重,已达到6-9%,其中去年财赤率重新迫近9%的新高水平,远高于政府目标的3%,估计今年亦将高达7%的警戒水平。

【财赤佔中国经济GDP比重】

2023年 -7.17%(估计)

2022年 -8.9%

2021年 -6.1%

2020年 -9.72%

(资料来源:彭博资讯)

“三条红线”传宽限半年救地方政府财政

地方政府开支大增,但财政收入却捉襟见肘,过去卖地收益佔地方收入四成。2022年前10个月,这方面收入比去年同期大降了26%。高盛就估计,2022年土地销售收入几乎每个月都以双位数的速度下滑,并且估计卖地收入在未来几个月内保持低迷 ,势将令地方政府财政持续恶化。

由此可见,内地楼市已经到了不能不救的局面。尽管去年底举行的中央经济工作会议仍然坚持习近平提出的“房住不炒”政策,但严峻的地方财政危机已令习近平不得不再次让步。彭博上周五(6日)引述知情人士称,金融监管部门计划阶段性放宽“三条红线”考核,把原定今年6月底到期的试点过渡期,延长最少6个月,让房企有更多时间化解债务风险。

2020年8月,住房和城乡建设部以及人行在对12家房企的约谈中提出的三个监管要求,即房企资产负债率不得大于70%、淨负债率不得大于100%、现金短债比不得小于一倍。市场俗称三个要求为“三条红线”。

我之前已一直提出,尽管人行及银保监不断放宽内房的融资限制,但除非“三条红线”能够解除,否则都难以拯救内房危机,因此相信今次调整属政策讯号,政策放宽可解读为阶段性纾缓房地产削减负债进程的关键变化。

值得留意是官方同时对“房住不炒”提出了新的定义:住建部部长倪虹表示,对于购买第一套住房的要大力支持。首付比、首套利率该降的都要降下来。对于购买第二套住房的,则要合理支持。以旧换新、以小换大、生育多子女家庭都要给予政策支持,让置业者吃下“定心丸”。

至于对购买三套以上住房,即是官方过去大力打压的“投机炒房者”,倪虹仅表示“原则上不支持”,显然见到官方对“房住不炒”的口气有软化迹象。

上月举行的中央经济工作会议,已把促内需列为今年的重点工作。内需要维持较强增长的前提是百姓收入或财富要稳步增加。推动楼市及股市的上升,有望带来财富效应,令更多人敢于花钱。

一个人的声誉与一代人的痛苦回忆

过去三年抗疫,中央及地方政府均花了不少钱,若卖地收入持续下降,政府恐怕难有资金再推动经济复甦,这正说明了防疫政策急转弯,甚至令习近平愿意放弃与自己声誉挂钩的“动态清零”政策。

尽管共产党善于改写历史,习近平对苦难的漠不关心令人不寒而慄,党政机关正大肆宣扬正在迅速恢复的经济增长,并以最残忍的方式隐瞒真正的疫情,同时审查和妖魔化所有揭露其错误的人,以维持政权对合法性的核心主张。 官员们已经空洞地吹嘘“以人民为本,生命至上”的新政策,同时忙于掩盖不必要的死亡。

但经历了“白纸运动”的觉醒,加上目睹身边的社会惨况,公众对政权统治的信任度已提出质疑,习近平将面临难以想像的代价,特别是难以摆脱对其声誉造成的损害。“动态清零”的笨拙执行以及随后的仓促放弃,将作为一个历史错误,与“文革十年”及“六四事件”一样,被世代铭记。

Friday, January 6, 2023

Microsoft Power BI desktop download

Here is the link. 

Install WordPress on IIS

Here is the article. 



Install and Configure MySQL for PHP Applications on IIS 7

Here is the article. 


Configuring Step 1: Install IIS and PHP

Here is the article. 


XAMPP | Production server | 4 reasons why you should never use XAMPP on your production server

Here is the article. 

XAMPP is a great development environment for PHP-based apps. But it's not well-suited for a production server. Here's why.

This guide will explore some of the security reasons why you should never use XAMPP on your production server for hosting or deploying PHP-based applications.

Why Use XAMPP for Development?

XAMPP is one of the most widely used LAMP stacks for developing PHP-based applications. It consists of an Apache server, MariaDB database, and various scripts associated with PHP and Perl.

Since it is cross-platform, open-source, and easy to set up, it is one of the best tools for beginners who are starting with PHP-based web app development.

Why You Shouldn't Use XAMPP for Production

However, XAMPP is not recommended for use on a production server because of the following security reasons.

1. No Password for the Database Administrator

A password is crucial if you have a dynamic website with a database. The password for the database administrator on XAMPP is not set by default which can lead to many security problems.

  • Hackers can gain access to your entire database and modify anything at will because the root user has read, write, and execute permissions.
  • Anyone with access to your database can view and copy all your confidential user and company information including copying the entire database.
  • Most systems nowadays rely on databases. In case the database gets deleted or becomes inaccessible, your system will essentially be brought down.

2. MySQL Can Be Accessed Over a Network

XAMPP uses MySQL or Maria DB as the database service. Unfortunately, the MySQL daemon is easily accessible over the network which is very handy if you are developing websites on a local PC but is not ideal for production.

Even if you use a firewall to limit access, it may not completely secure your database from being accessed.

3. ProFTPD Uses a Known Password

ProFTPD is the default FTP (File Transfer Protocol) client used by XAMPP. It is a known secret that the default password for this is set to "lampp". This means that users can easily gain access to all your static HTML files or web pages.

Hackers can copy your static web pages to build a fake site that is similar to yours and try to extort valuable information from your users. Also, hackers can inject malicious code into the fake or duplicate site infecting network computers in the process.

4. The Local Mail Server Is Not Secure

On Windows, XAMPP uses Mercury as the default mail server. Unfortunately, the password is also well known, which can make it easier for malicious users to gain access to your emails.

With access to your emails, hackers can send malicious code in emails, try to extort funds from unsuspecting users, or ruin the reputation of your company by sending improper emails to the customers.

Hardening Your XAMPP Installation

If you want to make your XAMPP installation more secure, you can run the following command if XAMPP is running on a Linux server:

sudo /opt/lampp/lampp security

On Windows, you can use the URL: https://localhost/security to fix some security issues. Note that, even if you make the aforementioned configurations, the security loopholes associated with FileZilla and Mercury will still not get fixed.

XAMPP Alternatives That You Can Try

XAMPP is a great tool for setting up a PHP development environment whether you are using Windows, macOS, or Linux. However, it is not secure enough to be used on a production server.

Most administrators use a native LAMP stack on Linux, or IIS on Windows production servers which offer a more secure way of deploying PHP applications. If you're using Windows, consider creating a WAMP development environment using WampServer.

Thursday, January 5, 2023

United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

 United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), the report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction, and the diffusion index. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining.
ActualPreviousHighestLowestDatesUnitFrequency
48.4049.0077.5029.401948 - 2022pointsMonthly
SA