Wednesday, January 18, 2023

Amazon layoffs | Seattle

Linkedin.com | Danny Favela | Jan. 18, 2023 | Layoff | Post written and shared | https://www.linkedin.com/in/dannyfavela/

This morning, I received an email from Beth Galetti that read "Today, we are taking the very difficult step of reducing roles across several of our businesses. Unfortunately, your role has been eliminated." That means I'm part of the Amazon layoffs.


Amazon has been a fun place to work with amazing people. The sad thing was not knowing ahead of time: I couldn't prepare for the departure with my now-former coworkers. This post is a little attempt at that though you and many others deserve so much more.

Aaron Fernandes - I wouldn't be here if you hadn't brought me in. From my Mexican-American perspective, your hire was a natural execution of what most diversity efforts strive for; I appreciate that you recruited this frontend-proficient homie from LA. Thank you!
Ashish Sharma - Managers are told that their success is directly tied to the success of their team. You were the main pillar of my success at Amazon. Our teams could not have done as much as they did without you. Thank you, Ashish.
Jake Carr - Jake, I have too many positive adjectives for you and the way you impacted me and my teams. I'll summarize it as: you are an exemplary and inspiring tech role model. Thank you for enabling, encouraging, empowering, growing, and truly caring about me and my teams.
Rhea Goel - If you have a chance, check out the pleasant movie: Anne of Green Gables. Then know you are a lifelong "kindred spirit". I'm so happy remembering when you, Ashish, and I kicked off the original Sable Efficiency team. I'm in awe of where it all led, what you've done, and what you are yet to do.
Robert Blasum - When I joined in 2016, your FDT OP1 document was the best introduction to Amazon writing. Referred to it many times but I don't remember thanking you. Thanks!

... And that's just from year 1. I have so many more people that I need to connect to. If you see this post and you know you're one of those cherished colleagues, please connect or reach out immediately! I'll follow up as layoff activities allow.

Connecting MySQL Workbench to XAMPP

 Robert Askam in Blog

Trying to navigate through the XAMPP phpmyadmin page can be difficult when you have a large database. To make this easier download MySQL Workbench and install. Go to localhost/phpmyadmin and on the right under the section MySQL you have the login details. Open up a new connection on Workbench and set Connection Name: [choose a name] Connection Method: Standard (TCP/IP) In the parameters tab: Hostname: localhost Port: 3306 Username: root Password: leave blank Click ok and you should now be connected. If you have any connection errors ensure there match with the credentials in you phpmyadmin tab you opened earlier.

Duplex - Half duplex

 C$229,950

3 bd1,047.34 sqft

16777 91st St NW, Edmonton, AB T5Z 3X4


Listed by:

Keystone Realty

Source: RAE,MLS®#: E4324607MLS Logo

Zillow last checked: 5 minutes ago

Listing updated: 2 hours ago

Samsung 24" Flat IPS Gaming Monitor with AMD Freesync Technology - LS24R350F

 $159.99

1999 Marine Drive, staples.com, close: 8 PM 

Product Details

Simplistic design, total sophistication. Exquisite craftsmanship makes the difference in a 24-inch flat screen monitor that's serious about style. The 3-sided bezel-less screen and slim Y-shaped stand bring a minimalist look. In a dual monitor setup, the displays line up for a nearly gapless view.

  • 23.8" LCD Monitor
  • 1920 x 1080 Screen Resolution
  • Ports: 1 x HDMI, 1 x D-Sub
  • 178-degree Horizontal/178-degree Vertical viewing angle
  • Image Brightness: 250 cd/m2
  • Dimensions: With Stand 21.2" x 16.7" x 9.3", Without Stand 21.2" x 12.6" x 1.9"
  • Without built-in speakers
  • 1 Year Warranty

城市篇——加拿大埃德蒙顿

  埃德蒙顿是加拿大阿尔伯塔省省会,位于该省中部,也是加拿大第五大城市。埃德蒙顿跨北萨斯喀彻温河两岸,距美加边界560公里,为通向北方的门户。        

埃德蒙顿和中国也有一些渊源,市内还有一条街道名为“哈尔滨路”,这正是埃德蒙顿市在1987年以其友好城市哈尔滨重新命名的一条道路。而在哈尔滨,也有一条通往哈尔滨国际机场的咽喉要道,名为“埃德蒙顿路”。

       埃德蒙顿的整个冬天都非常寒冷,一般温度为-20℃~-10℃,最冷可达到-40~-30℃。不过这里的夏天却非常宜人,被人们称为阳光最为充足的城市之一。埃德蒙顿的大陆性气候成为了旅游发展中的重要影响因素,经过一整个寒冬的等待,夏天的到来为这座“节庆之城”带来了更多的活力与生气。

       六月底的埃德蒙顿爵士乐音乐节会来到这里的爵士酒吧和俱乐部,为观众呈现众多北美知名爵士乐手的精彩演出;八月中旬到下旬的埃德蒙顿国际小剧场戏剧节更是好戏连台,让戏剧爱好者们大饱眼福……除此之外,每年夏季,埃德蒙顿的大型艺术和设计庆典还将持续13天在各地举办演出活动和展览,吸引着来自世界各地的艺术家与游客。

       埃德蒙顿的河谷公园是北美最大的城市公园,其面积达到美国纽约曼哈顿中央公园的22倍,因此,埃德蒙顿也是加拿大城市中人均绿地面积最大的城市。在河谷公园里,有许多公立和私立的高尔夫课。到了夏季,昼长夜短,高尔夫爱好者可以从清早一直打到半夜。

       埃德蒙顿也是热爱体育的城市,拥有多处大型现代化的体育场馆。1983年的夏天,埃德蒙顿举办了第十二届世界大学生夏季运动会,迎来了来自73个国家和地区的2382名运动员参赛。中国选手获得了5枚金牌、3枚银牌、4枚铜牌。

2305 35A AV NW 134, Edmonton, Alberta, T6T1Z2

2305 35A AV NW 134, Edmonton, Alberta, T6T1Z2

Welcome home to this great-value condo meticulously maintained by its original owner! Whether you are a 1st time home buyer not wanting to rent anymore, or an empty-nester, this is the home for you! This 603 SqFt 1 Bedroom - 1 Bathroom condo with a Separate In-Suite Storage Room & Laundry is conveniently located close to the building entrance & its COVERED parking stall. This main floor unit features a Covered-Patio so don't worry about taking your dog or groceries in the elevator. This open layout boasts a functional kitchen that offers plenty of white cabinets & countertops as well as a breakfast bar. The dining area & spacious living room make for a cozy atmosphere. The large Bedroom is 'fit for a king' sized bed & has a large closet-space. The Main Bathroom showcases a Brand-New Shower (Feb 2022) w. a bench & glass doors. The washer/dryer & storage room complete this condo. Close to everything you need - Whitemud/Henday access; Rec Centre; Shopping; Public Transportation; Schools; Park - you name it! (id:1937) 

$103,900 CAD

Property Summary for 2305 35A AV NW

Type
 
Single Family
Sub-Type
 
Condominium/Strata
Building Type
 
Apartment
Title
 
Condominium/Strata
MLS® Number
 
E4323213
Year Built
 
2004



Monitor buying guide: How to choose your next display

Here is the article.

First, the good news: Most modern PC monitors are rather decent. Their minimum brightness, contrast, and color accuracy have improved significantly over the past decade. It’s a great time to upgrade even if you stick to budget monitors.

If you want a quick, easy recommendation: Go for a 24-inch monitor with 1080p resolution or a 27-inch monitor with 1440p resolution. An IPS panel is preferable, though VA is also good. Gamers can spend a little more to snag either option with a 144Hz refresh rate, which offers a smoother and more responsive experience. For more concrete recommendations, be sure to check out our roundups of the best monitors overall, the best gaming monitors, and the best 4K monitors. We also have more specialized guides to the best USB-C monitors, the best monitors for graphic design, and the best monitors for programing. Our picks are the result of hundreds of hours spent testing the latest monitors from Acer, Asus, BenQ, Dell, LG, Samsung, and other major brands.

Not sure that’s right for you, or want to know more about the tech? Here’s the lay of the land.


How to buy a monitor for gaming or working from home

 Should I go with 24 or 27 inches? Full HD or 4K? If questions like that are spinning around your head, chances are you've just begun to search for a new monitor to make your work-at-home (or play-at-home) setup more productive. We'll try to slow down your spinning head with this guide.

In this article

TECH Microsoft is laying off 10,000 employees

 KEY POINTS

  1. Microsoft said it’s letting go of 10,000 employees as the software maker braces for slower revenue growth.
  2. The maker of Windows and Office is also taking a $1.2 billion charge tied to lease consolidation and other activities.
  3. In October Microsoft called for the slowest quarterly growth since 2016.

Microsoft said Wednesday that it’s letting go of 10,000 employees through March 31 as the software maker braces for slower revenue growth. The company is taking a $1.2 billion charge in the fiscal second quarter that will result in a negative impact of 12 cents to earnings per share.

Alphabet, Amazon and Salesforce are among the technology companies that have lowered head count in recent weeks. The contraction comes after demand for cloud computing and collaboration services picked up as enterprises, government agencies and schools encouraged remote work to reduce Covid exposure.

Rising prices have prompted companies to become more careful about technology spending, hurting prospects for the tech stocks that outperformed other market sectors year after year. Now Microsoft and its peers are taking stock. In July Microsoft said it will trim less than 1% of employees, and in October it confirmed an additional round of job cuts that reportedly affected fewer than 1,000 workers.

“I’m confident that Microsoft will emerge from this stronger and more competitive,” CEO Satya Nadella told employees in a memo that was posted on Microsoft’s website. The move will reduce Microsoft’s head count by less than 5%, and some employees will find out this week if they’re losing their jobs, he wrote.

Microsoft shares moved modestly higher at the U.S. open after the announcement.

The workforce adjustment will hit all teams and geographies, with more impact coming to sales and marketing than engineering, a company spokesperson told CNBC in an interview.

Employees in the U.S. who are eligible for benefits will receive severance that’s above the market and six months of health care and stock vesting, along with 60 days’ notice before their work ends, Nadella wrote.

Nadella reiterated trends in the business climate that he has described in recent months.

“As we saw customers accelerate their digital spend during the pandemic, we’re now seeing them optimize their digital spend to do more with less,” he wrote. “We’re also seeing organizations in every industry and geography exercise caution as some parts of the world are in a recession and other parts are anticipating one.”

Earlier this month Nadella had indicated the company might have to institute changes.

“I think for us as a global company, we’re not going to be immune from what’s happening in the macro,” he said in an interview with CNBC-TV18. “We will have to also get our own sort of operational focus on making sure our expenses are in line with our revenue growth.”

Microsoft has called for 2% revenue growth in the fiscal second quarter, which would be the slowest rate since 2016.

The layoffs are not a major surprise given the deterioration in Microsoft’s cloud-infrastructure and Windows operating system sales over the past few quarters, said Gil Luria, an analyst at DA Davidson who has a buy rating on Microsoft stock.

Investors are very concerned about the margins of many technology companies, including Microsoft, he told CNBC in an interview.

“I think there’s been a broad expectation from all these companies, especially the ones that hired more over the last two to three years, to adapt and react to a slower-growth environment and show the discipline and the focus on shareholder value that investors need to feel right now as they try to ride out a slower-growing economy,” Luria said.

The culling might save Microsoft around $2.5 billion over the next 12 months, or 14 cents per share when including the charge, analysts at Evercore ISI, who have the equivalent of a buy rating on Microsoft stock, wrote in a note to clients.

Major layoffs aren’t an annual exercise for 47-year-old Microsoft, but they do happen occasionally. In 2017 Microsoft laid off thousands of employees in a broad reorganization of its sales unit. In 2014, following the acquisition of Nokia’s devices and services business, Microsoft cut 18,000 people. The reduction Microsoft announced Wednesday is the largest since the Nokia layoffs, the spokesperson said.

The charge relates to severance, changes to the company’s hardware lineup and the cost of consolidating leases, wrote Nadella, noting that Microsoft is allocating people and money to growth areas and divesting while divesting in other categories.

“Every one of us and every team across the company must raise the bar and perform better than the competition to deliver meaningful innovation that customers, communities, and countries can truly benefit from,” Nadella wrote. “If we deliver on this, we will emerge stronger and thrive long into the future; it’s as simple as that.”



Bed Bath & Beyond

RETAIL

Bed Bath & Beyond looks for capital infusion, buyer ahead of likely bankruptcy filing

KEY POINTS
  • Bed Bath & Beyond has been in discussions with lenders as it tries to nail down financing that would keep it afloat during a likely bankruptcy filing, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • The company is also running a sale process in hopes of selling its home goods chain of stores, as well as its Buybuy Baby banner, the people said.
  • Interested buyers include Sycamore Partners and Authentic Brands, they added.

 

Bed Bath & Beyond

 has been in discussions with prospective buyers and lenders as it works to keep its business afloat during a likely bankruptcy filing, according to people familiar with the matter.

The retailer is in the midst a sale process in hopes of finding a buyer that would keep the doors open for both of its major chains, its namesake banner and Buybuy Baby, said the people, who weren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

At the same time, Bed Bath has also been looking for a lender to provide financing that would keep the company going if it were to file for bankruptcy protection in the coming weeks, the people said.

A Bed Bath spokeswoman said Wednesday the company doesn’t comment on specific relationships but has been working with strategic advisers to evaluate all paths to regain market share and enhance liquidity.

“Multiple paths are being explored and we are determining our next steps thoroughly, and in a timely manner,” the spokeswoman said, declining to comment further.

A representative for AlixPartners, which CNBC recently reported was hired as the company’s advisor, declined to comment.

Earlier this month Bed Bath warned it may need to file for bankruptcy after its turnaround plans failed to substantially boost sales and repair its balance sheet. The company reported net losses that exceed $1.12 billion for the first nine months of the fiscal year. It’s blown through its liquidity in recent months, shouldered a heavy debt load, and faced strained relationships with its suppliers.

Comparable sales declined 32% year over year in the most recent fiscal quarter, ended Nov. 26. Company leaders said the company has had a harder time keeping shelves stocked, as vendors change payment terms or decide not to ship merchandise because of the retailer’s financial challenges.

Last week, CNBC reported Bed Bath had begun another round of layoffs in an attempt to further cut costs. The company had about 32,000 employees as of Feb. 26, 2022, according to public filings.

The company has been working to find a route that sees its chains survive, the people added. A day before Bed Bath issued a “going concern” warning, it announced in an employee memo that it had hired Shawn Hummell, a former Macy’s executive, to lead its namesake brand’s retail, store operations and merchandising operations as senior vice president of stores. Prior to his time at Macy’s, Hummell worked for Abercrombie & Fitch, another retailer that underwent a turnaround.

One possible buyer circling Bed Bath is private equity firm Sycamore Partners, according to the people familiar with the discussions. Sycamore is particularly interested in Buybuy Baby, Bed Bath’s banner for infants and toddlers, which has outperformed the broader company. Buybuy Baby has been deemed most likely to survive going forward, the people said.

Still, a sale of Bed Bath as a whole remains on the table — albeit with a much smaller footprint of stores than it currently has, the people said.

Sycamore is known for acquiring retailers, like women’s apparel chain Talbots, including distressed companies that have sought bankruptcy attention like Ascena’s Ann Taylor. A Sycamore Partners spokesperson declined to comment. Dealbook previously reported Sycamore’s interest in Buybuy Baby.

Bed Bath has also drawn interest from companies that acquire the intellectual property, or brands, of companies, particularly those under distress, the people said. Authentic Brands, which has frequented many bankruptcy-run sales for retailers like Forever 21, has also been looking at Bed Bath, the people said. A representative for Authentic Brands didn’t immediately respond to comment.

Short of a sale, the company and its advisors have been looking to nail down additional financing for a bankruptcy filing, which could occur in the coming weeks, the people said. The company’s advisors are looking for a loan of at least $100 million, one of the people said.

Last year, Bed Bath received $375 million in new funding from lender Sixth Street Partners, which has provided financing to other retailers like J.C. Penney and Designer Brands.

Sixth Street’s facility could be converted into bankruptcy financing, the people said, or the lender or others could convert their debt to equity and become Bed Bath’s owner. A representative for Sixth Street didn’t immediately respond to comment.

Bed Bath’s financing strategy comes as fellow retailer Party City sought Chapter 11 protection this week. Also with a hefty debt load, Party City is looking to restructure its balance sheet and move forward with a smaller footprint.

Bankruptcy attorney Eric Snyder from law firm Wilk Auslander said a sale was unrealistic for Bed Bath due to its declining sales and inventory, as well as its expanded losses.

“They don’t have the availability to right the ship, and they don’t have the cash to continue to operate,” Snyder said. “I just don’t see any other option other than a bankruptcy and a liquidation.”

—CNBC’s Melissa Repko contributed to this report.

Top 10 Health Benefits of Skiing

 

Top 10 Health Benefits of Skiing

Whether you take winter vacations to the snow-covered mountains or live near an area where you can easily hit the slopes, you can always get some exercise during the cold winter months with skiing. All ages and skill levels can benefit from a day out on the snow, as skiing can be considered both good for the body and good for the mind.

Here are the Top 10 from Health Fitness Revolution and author of the book ReSYNC Your Life Samir Becic:

  • Improves proprioception. Proprioception is defined as one’s ability to feel the position of different body parts and the effort that goes into moving them. In other words, when you hold your hand in front of your face with your eyes closed, you still know your hand is there even though you can’t see it. Skiing involves quite a bit of balance and coordination, and you must be conscious of the many slight movements and positions of your body if you want to ski well and stay on your feet. Proprioception weakens with age, so the more you are involved in proprioceptive activities, the less it will diminish.
  • Strengthens bones and joints. Your knees must endure the tension and weight from your body as you turn and move quickly downhill, so they are being strengthened when you ski. In addition to strengthening your knees, your bones become stronger due to the weight-bearing impact on your legs. So not only are you having a fantastic time gliding down the slopes, but you are preventing knee damage, osteoporosis and increasing your proprioceptive strength.
  • Boosts your mood. Skiing not only boosts overall happiness and well-being, but it is beneficial to an individual’s physical and mental health, despite the frequency or duration of the activity.
  • Increases cardiovascular endurance. As an aerobic endurance activity, skiing can help an individual burn calories and lose weight. Beginners also can get a good cardiovascular exercise by working the heart and lungs from walking up the slope rather than using the ski lift.
  • Strengthens lower body muscles. Because skiing puts you in a constant squat position, it works your inner and outer thighs, hamstrings, quads and glutes. You will be too distracted by the surrounding beauty or too focused on the slope in front of you to notice your legs burning, but we promise—you will definitely feel results the next day.
  • Improves balance and core strength. Because you are constantly working to stay balanced while skiing, you core is engaged at all times. Plus, skiing challenges your balance and agility, helping you fend off slips and falls as you age.
  • Promotes deep sleep. You will feel exhausted in the best way after trying a new sport, especially one that engages your entire body. After hitting the slopes, we guarantee there will be no scrolling the Internet before bed or staying up late—you will hit the pillow and enjoy a good night of restful sleep.
  • Improves flexibility. A flexible body is going to be a huge benefit when skiing. By building flexibility, you can avoid muscle strains and sprains. A thorough, regular stretching routine that focuses on the core muscle groups will strengthen the abdominals, obliques and hips that are used in downhill skiing.
  • Promotes healthy eating habits. When you wake up before a long day of skiing, you have to power up. At lunchtime you need to refuel, and at dinnertime you need a recovery meal. You will naturally be more conscious of your eating: more protein, healthy fats, less sugar, more fruits and vegetables, etc.
  • Skiing can contribute to a sunnier outlook. Spending the day on a snow-covered hill or mountain, surrounded by natural outdoor beauty, will have you forgetting about the stresses of daily life. You’ll also benefit from the vitamin D exposure, which helps ward off seasonal affective disorder and boosts your mood.

Why skiing is good for you

 

Why skiing is good for you

by NAOMI COLEMAN, femail.co.uk

If you've already booked a skiing holiday this year, you are probably looking forward to perfecting your technique on the piste and catching a sun-kissed glow.

But did you know your skiing holiday can provide plenty of health benefits too?

Apart from burning up to 3,000 calories during six hours of skiing, you can lose up to five pounds of weight in a week, tone your stomach muscles, boost your immunity and even relieve depression!

To help you get the best out of your skiing holiday, we present the seven health benefits of the sport

TONES YOUR STOMACH MUSCLES

The art of skiing is to keep yourself steady on the slippery slope. To help balance yourself, you naturally engage your core stability muscles - the sheath of deep muscle that starts either side of your spine and runs around your body, ending up in your pelvic region.

These are key stomach muscles which, when strengthened, act a bit like a corset, compressing the lower abdomen (which means a flatter tummy), toning your stomach muscles and stabilising your spine to protect it when you bend down or fall over on the piste.

Mastering your core stability will also help you balance on the piste and improve your overall coordination.

IMPROVES YOUR CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEM

Whether you're a beginner or an advanced skier, you will be giving your cardiovascular system a good workout on the piste.

Improving your cardiovascular system means elevating your heart rate which increases blood circulation, bringing more nutrients and oxygen to your tissues and helping to remove waste from the body more quickly.

Working out in this way also means your muscles are able to draw in more oxygen and blood which produces more capillaries and allows your muscles to expand, and, in turn, burn up calories more quickly.

Betony Garner of the Ski Club of Great Britain believes skiing for just half an hour without stopping is a good cardiovascular workout.

'Skiing is good for both experienced skiers and beginners because it works the major muscle groups,' she says.

'Also, beginners tend to walk up the slope, rather than using a ski lift - which really works the heart and lungs, making it a good overall workout!'

WORKS YOUR MUSCLES

Although skiing exercises all our major muscle groups, it particularly targets the inner and outer thighs, hamstrings and buttock muscles - thanks to the crouching position that skiing involves.

Warming up and down for ten minutes before and after skiing will help prevent muscle soreness and potential injuries by lengthening your muscle fibres. The best way to make sure you are stretching properly is to do a lower leg, hamstring, thigh, lower back, upper back and arm stretch and hold it in the position for 40 seconds.

Skiing also stretches your upper and lower arms, says Corinne Thompson of the gym chain David Lloyd's.

'As you grip your poles and steer around moguls you use your triceps (backs of upper arms), biceps (front of upper arms) and lower arm muscles to control your speed and direction,' she says.

'This action also engages your shoulder blades and lower back giving a good overall workout.'

But, warns Corinne, you should try to avoid skiing immediately after lunch. 'Allow at least an hour's rest after eating,' she says. 'This is because your body needs a good blood supply to digest your lunch.'

If you use your muscles to ski before your food is digested properly it can make you feel nauseous - which can be dangerous if you feel dizzy and fall down,' she says.

________________________________________

HELPS YOU LOSE WEIGHT

According to fitness experts, you can lose up to five pounds during a week's skiing holiday. This is because a typical day's skiing can burn up to 3,000 calories - far more than a session at the gym.

Bethony Garner of Ski Club of Great Britain says the steeper the slope, the more calories you'll burn because your body has to work harder to keep your body balanced. 'Experienced skiers are also more likely to negotiate moguls - which use up even more muscle power and so burn even more calories,' she says.

Not only that, but being exposed to sub zero temperatures means your body is forced to raise its own body temperature and it does this by burning off even more calories!

Betony points out taking it easy on the hot chocolate and pastries can also encourage weight loss. 'High calorific food and drinking alcohol goes hand-in-hand with skiing holidays, but avoiding them will help you lose weight even faster,' she says.

Tuesday, January 17, 2023

HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE TO GET GOOD AT SKIING?

 https://www.crystalski.co.uk/skibuzz/how-long-does-it-take-to-get-good-at-skiing/

华尔街最准分析师:今年美股还要再跌10%

 华尔街最新预测,标普500今年可能会在3600点见底,甚至可能触及3000点。


美国12月CPI同比增速连续第六个月放缓,令投资者更加相信美联储稳处减速加息的正轨。市场的乐观情绪推动美股上周大涨,纳指和标普500均创两月来最佳周表现。

但随着美国经济逐步陷入衰退,美股可能很快要戴上“痛苦面具”了。

美银Michael Hartnett领导的策略师团队在近期的一份报告中写道,预计标普500指数将在上半年下跌近10%,至3600点,随后在下半年反弹17%,至4200点。

他们表示,在经济和收益衰退期间进行交易“需要耐心”,而这种“痛苦交易”将持续到美联储的利率预测、债券收益率和信贷(2.24,0.00,0.00%)息差释放出“金发姑娘”的信号——即经济高速增长同时通胀保持平稳的状态。这意味着在美联储释放出降息的信号之前,美股仍面临下行风险。

市场和美联储的博弈

美联储1月5日发布的“最鹰”会议纪要向市场传递了一个信号——如果股市大幅反弹,将大大延长经济痛苦的时间,但市场并不在意,自那时起,标普500已反弹超1万亿美元。

12月CPI继续放缓,美国密歇根大学1年通胀预期创2021年4月来新低,进一步表明物价压力已经见顶,使美联储再次放缓加息步伐的预期升温。

巴克莱策略师Emmanuel Cau近期的一份报告中写道:

市场可能有充分的理由看到通胀水平仍然保持在半满水平,并对央行的鹰派言论不屑一顾。

如今,更多物价压力放缓的迹象不仅出现在制造业,也出现在服务(414.89,1.63,0.39%)业,就业市场也出现了一些裂缝。

不过,随着摩根大通(143.01,3.52,2.52%)等华尔街投行正式拉开美股第四季度财报季的大幕,市场的焦点将很快转向企业利润。

高盛(374,4.06,1.10%)David Kostin策略师团队上周四晚间在一份报告中写道,“标普500指数(成分股公司)业绩修正预示着硬着陆”,尽管市场预计将出现软着陆。他们表示,如果经济没有衰退,标普500指数成分股公司的每股收益今年将持平。

美股底在哪里?

除了Hartnett,多数华尔街分析师均认为美股今年注定不安宁。

Stifel首席股票策略师Barry Bannister认为,“痛苦交易”将发生在下半年,上半年股市有望出现反弹。他担心通胀将在今年晚些时候反弹,迫使美联储收紧金融状况。

美银股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian在周四接受媒体采访时直言,今年美股股指的表现将不会很出彩,标普500指数可能会最终上涨至4600点,较当前水平上涨15% ,但期间将触底至3000点,较当前水平下跌约25%。

Subramanian说:

我认为,企业分析师在未来的利润率、成本压力和定价能力方面可能不那么有信心。

我们将看到这些预期下调,而且很可能发生在企业指引更大幅度地下调2023年盈利预期之后。

FactSet数据显示,标普500指数2023年每股盈余(EPS)预期共识为231.05美元,仍远高于美银预估的200美元。

摩根士丹利(91.66,1.13,1.25%)首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson及其团队最近表示,目前对2023年企业盈利的预期“实质上过高”,并指出,鉴于盈利风险较高,股票的股票风险溢价(ERP)“过低”。

Wilson的团队认为,美股在2023年可能再下跌22%,而他们对标普500指数每股收益的基准预测为195美元,熊市预测为180美元。

美股失宠,谁会赢得投资者青睐?

今年年初,通胀降温以及央行放缓加息步伐的预期推动了乐观情绪升温,全球股市上涨。尽管如此,在利率走高的背景下,策略师们越来越青睐欧洲和亚洲股市,而非美股。

Hartnett表示,欧洲股市相对于美国股市的强劲表现,是“一个时代的开始”,高盛则认为,中国股市还有更大的上涨空间。

根据花旗援引咨询机构EPFR Global数据发布的一份报告,截至1月11日的一周,全球股票基金的资金流入为72亿美元,但美国和欧洲的基金分别有26亿美元和5亿美元的赎回。