Tuesday, June 25, 2024

英伟达连续暴跌,下一个关注点是美光的业绩?

  

英伟达连续暴跌,下一个关注点是美光的业绩?

 

在一鼓作气超越微软(MSFT.US)、苹果(AAPL.US)问鼎全球市值第一的宝座后,英伟达(NVDA.US)似乎陷入了力竭状态,不仅守不住位置,反而连连后退。

6月24日(当地时间),英伟达股价再度大挫6.68%,最近3日已累跌12.89%,其市值也已经跌破3万亿美元的关口,再次落后微软、苹果。

 

要知道英伟达可不是什么无关紧要的小角色,这是一只红到发紫的AI龙头,亦是一台推动美股走强的“发动机”,其股价在短短3日内跌去近13%引起了广泛关注及担忧。

涨太多了?芯片股遭高管频繁抛售

从消息面来看,高管频繁减持以及获利盘兑现收益被视为是英伟达下跌的原因之一。

根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露的信息,英伟达的CEO黄仁勋仅在6月13日至21日内就累计减持了72万股英伟达股票,套现金额高达9460万美元,约合6.9亿元人民币。

不仅仅是黄仁勋,还有一些其他高管在抛售英伟达。

据悉,自5月22日披露第一财季业绩以来,已有超过三分之一的内部人士减持英伟达股票,抛售的速度达到多年来的最高水平,包括首席财务官Colette Kress、执行副总裁Deborah Shoquist、Dawn Hudson、Tench Coxe、John Dabiri、Mark Stevens等多位高管。

值得一提的是,遭到内部人士减持的科技股也不止英伟达一家,伴随着股价的上涨,美光科技(MU.US)、高通(QCOM.US)也都出现了类似的情况。

事实上,英伟达等科技股大多在2024年迎来了一波股价的大涨,因此遭到高管减持以及一些获利盘兑现收益是十分正常。只不过,在公司股价表现气势如虹之时,高管争相抛售对市场信心还是会有一定打击,高管抛售行为的潜台词有点像是“当下股价已经超出了公司的基本面”。

目前依然有很多研究机构继续看好英伟达,目前的下跌只是“倒车接人”。例如,美银近期重申了英伟达买入评级、150美元的目标价格和股票的首选地位;投资机构Rosenblatt芯片行业分析师则将英伟达的12个月内目标股价从140美元大幅上调至每股200美元的惊人水平。

不过,看空英伟达的投资者亦不在少数,主要基于两方面的原因:其一,一些投资人认为英伟达算力过剩;其二,有投资人认为,英伟达无法长期垄断AI芯片这块超级蛋糕,AMD、英特尔等芯片厂商正在抢夺市场份额,同时谷歌、微软、亚马逊等客户也不会甘心一直受制于英伟达,必然会自研AI芯片或者扶持其他芯片厂商。

市场担忧思科往事重演?

需要指出的是,此前就有人认为本轮科技股的狂欢和2000年的那波互联网浪潮很相似,英伟达的表现甚至比当年的“总龙头”思科(CSCO.US)犹有过之。

如今说到英伟达,其最具竞争力的AI芯片在数据中心领域的市场份额据传达到了80%,几乎就是各家公司发展先进AI怎么也绕不开的高山,这也被视为是英伟达最深的护城河,是某些分析师喊出5万亿美元市值预期的支柱。

然而,在1990年代到2000年代期间,思科同样几乎是网络基础设施的代名词,在互联网的发展中居于中心地位,谁也离不开它的交换机和路由器。

基于接近垄断的市场地位,在过去五年中,英伟达的股价已经累计上涨了4280%,与思科在其市值达到顶峰前五年的4460%增幅相比,表现相当。

6月23日(当地时间),BTIG策略师Jonathan Krinsky在报告中警告称,英伟达的表现甚至超越了90年代末科技泡沫时期的任何美国公司,并且股价已经比其200天移动平均线高出约100%。

另外,自1990年以来,没有哪家美国公司能在成为市值最大公司的同时,其股价高于200天移动平均线的幅度超过80%。最接近的一次是2000年3月的思科,当时思科的股价高出其200天移动平均线80%,并标志着其股价的历史最高点。

不难发现,现在的英伟达和彼时的思科非常相似。

而当互联网泡沫破碎后,思科的股价还是遭遇了血崩,而且其市场地位似乎并没有分析师宣传的那样稳固。此次英伟达连续3日大跌也难免让一些投资者想起思科往事。

这当然不是说英伟达最后一定会和思科一样,但是这种可能性不能不关注。

又有一句话说,“神是不能流血的”。像英伟达这样积聚了全球热钱、股价又大幅上涨后的龙头企业,共识很重要,一旦大家有了股价见顶的预期,最后或许会出现踩踏式下跌,这也是英伟达此次连跌3日备受瞩目的原因所在。

美光的最新业绩值得关注

值得注意的是,目前美股市场的现状是流动性都集中在偏头部的企业,也就是说热钱都在疯狂怼英伟达、微软、苹果、亚马逊、台积电等大市值公司,因此这些“大块头”股价的上涨也成为了驱动美股市场持续走强的动力,而英伟达就是其中效用最强的一台“发动机”。

一旦以英伟达为代表的科技股“熄火”,转而下跌,是否会带崩美股市场值得思考。

最新需要关注的信息是美光科技将于周三盘后(当地时间)公布2024财年第三季度业绩。美光科技也是此轮AI浪潮中受益匪浅的芯片企业,市场对其业绩寄予了厚望,公司是否能取得符合预期甚至超出预期的业绩对稳住英伟达的股价及此轮AI行情很重要。

 

Tradingview.com | PMAX: Profit Maximizer Indicator (2023)

 The PMAX indicator is a technical analysis tool that helps traders identify the maximum price levels in a given time frame. It is similar to a moving average, but instead of calculating an average of prices over a set period, the PMAX indicator finds the highest price within a specific number of bars and plots it as a line on the chart. This line shows traders the maximum price level that has been reached in the recent past and can be used to identify potential resistance levels or to set stop-loss orders.

The PMAX indicator can be useful for both short-term and long-term traders, as it can help identify key levels of resistance and support. It is especially helpful in volatile markets where prices are rapidly changing, as it provides a visual representation of the maximum price reached in real-time.

Traders can customize the PMAX indicator by selecting the time frame and the number of bars used to calculate the maximum price. This allows traders to adjust the indicator to fit their specific trading style and market analysis.

Here are a few of the most common ways traders use the PMAX indicator:

Identifying resistance levels: By plotting the maximum price levels in a given time frame, the PMAX indicator can help traders identify potential resistance levels. If the price of an asset reaches the maximum level and then starts to decrease, this may indicate that the asset is facing resistance at that level and may not continue to increase in value.

Setting stop-loss orders: Traders can use the PMAX indicator to set stop-loss orders at key resistance levels. For example, if the PMAX line is plotted at a certain price level and the asset’s price starts to decrease, the trader may set a stop-loss order to limit their potential losses.

Trend analysis: The PMAX indicator can be used to identify trends in the market. If the PMAX line is consistently moving higher, this may indicate that the asset is in an uptrend, while if the PMAX line is consistently moving lower, this may indicate a downtrend.

Breakout trading: Traders can use the PMAX indicator to identify potential breakout points. If the price of an asset breaks above the PMAX line, this may indicate a bullish breakout and provide a potential opportunity to buy. Conversely, if the price of an asset breaks below the PMAX line, this may indicate a bearish breakout and provide a potential opportunity to sell.

Market Analysis with PMAX

The Profit Maximizer — PMax Explorer is a powerful tool for traders seeking to analyze the trend reversals of up to 20 different tickers on the Tradingview platform. With the built-in PMax indicator, users can quickly and easily confirm trend reversals and stay ahead of the market.

The PMax Explorer screens for both buy and sell signals, and categorizes them as either Confirmed Reversals or Potential Reversals. Confirmed Reversals have already taken place in the last bar and cannot be repainted, while Potential Reversals may occur in the current bar, but are subject to change based on the closing price.

This screener also allows you to explore the 20 tickers in the current graph’s time frame, as well as in the desired parameters of the SuperTrend indicator. With the built-in strategy version, users can also manually optimize the parameters to suit their needs.

With the ability to choose from 8 different moving average types, including Simple, Exponential, Weighted, Triangular, and more, traders can customize the PMax indicator to fit their specific trading style and preferences. The period of the ATR and the multiplier of the ATR can also be adjusted, along with the length and type of moving average.

In conclusion, the Profit Maximizer — PMax Explorer is a versatile and user-friendly tool for traders seeking to maximize their profits and stay ahead of the market. With its combination of powerful indicators and customizable parameters, it’s a must-have tool for any serious trader.

AlanHull.com | How to reduce lag in a moving average

The Hull Moving Average Explained – How to Use it in Trading

Here is the article. 

The best trading indicators out there share some key similarities, including the ability to reduce lag, eliminate noise, responsiveness to market changes, and more. The Hull Moving Average (HMA) is a favorite of many traders. It’s a comprehensive moving average indicator that helps with all these essential tasks. It is also simple to draw and straightforward to interpret. This guide focuses on the specifics of the HMA. We’ll look at how to calculate it and the best way to apply it when trading. Let’s see how the Hull Moving Average can help you become a better trader.

TABLE OF CONTENTS  Hide 

What is the Hull Moving Average?

The Hull Moving Average (HMA) is a directional trend indicator. Its goal is to provide more information of higher quality to those whose trading strategy depends on the slim margins within the price movements of an instrument.

The Hull Moving Average indicator is a combination of weighted moving averages (WMAs). It prioritizes recent price changes over older ones. The result is a moving average that’s dynamic yet smooth, able to help identify the dominating market trend. Some traders also use the indicator to time their entry and exit signals.

Alan Hull, a trader, mathematician, and IT expert developed the HMA in 2005. Back in the day, he introduced the technical trading tool with the following claim:

“It almost eliminates lag altogether and manages to improve smoothing at the same time.”

Today, swing and long-term traders apply it to complement other indicators or confirm trading signals combining various in-depth analysis techniques.

In reality, there is nothing especially unique about the HMA. It is just a variation of other moving averages (SMA, for example). However, it is still a robust tool for traders because it generates a smooth line that makes it easy to work with.

How do you calculate it?

Calculating the indicator is straightforward. We’ll need to know how to use the Weighted Moving Average (WMA). Calculate the Hull Moving Average by following the steps below:

  1. First, calculate a Weighted Moving Average with period “n/2” and multiply it by 2
  2. Next, calculate a Weighted Moving Average for period “n” and subtract it from the one calculated during Step 1
  3. Finally, calculate a Weighted Moving Average with a period the square root of “n” using the data from Step 2

The formula for the HMA looks like this:

HMA = WMA(2*WMA(n/2) − WMA(n)),sqrt(n))

How Can You Use the Hull Moving Average?

As a directional trend indicator, the HMA captures the current market’s dynamics. It determines whether the market conditions are bullish or bearish relative to historical data by relying on recent price action.

Knowing this should make interpreting the indicator fairly easy. Most trading platforms display the HMA with two dimensions. You have a positional value and a directional value. We use the former to determine the location relative to price. Meanwhile, we derive the latter from the direction of the current market slope. The combination of both is what allows the HMA to be so smooth and responsive.

As you can see, there is nothing significantly different from the way other moving average indicators appear on a chart. You might see the HMA use various different colors on some platforms when depicting bullish or bearish trends.

Before we switch to the trading strategies you can apply with the HMA, we should take a minute to focus on the best timeframes for the HMA and their effect on the indicator’s appearance and signals. If you choose a longer period, you can use the HMA to identify trends more effectively, making it a better choice for long-term trading. On the other hand, shorter periods can be more beneficial to day traders who want to capture price movements as they unfold in real-time. Usually, when using a shorter period HMA, the entry signals are primarily in the prevailing trend direction.

Hull Moving Average Trading Strategies

According to Hull, the indicator’s signals are most efficient when using them for directional signals and not for crossovers (i.e., when a shorter-term MA crosses a longer-term MA). The reason is that crossovers are likely to be distorted by lag. Instead, he recommends looking at turning points to identify entries and exits.

Based on this, the strategies you can use with the Hull Moving Average are as simple as they get:

  • Buy when the HMA turns up
  • Sell when the HMA turns down

The HMA is quite simple to use. Its fundamentals are rooted in a basic concept – if the indicator rises, the prevailing trend is also going up. Thus, you can go long. On the other hand, once the market embraces a bearish trend and the indicator also starts to go down, that might be a good opportunity for going short.

Hull Moving Average vs. Other Moving Averages

The Hull Moving Average is very similar to other moving averages in how we interpret them. However, it is designed to improve their main flaw. Namely, their inability to isolate market noise and avoid lag. That is why the main difference between the HMA and the other moving averages is that it responds to price changes quicker and can help confirm a trend or signal a price change at the right time.

In other words, the universal benefit of the HMA is that it provides a faster signal on a smoother visual line. It is far superior to all other moving averages because it is a very efficient low-latency trigger.

Like with other moving averages, the HMA also allows you to tailor the duration of the observed period. You can change how far back the indicator looks into price history when analyzing market conditions.

Now, let’s dive into the core differences between the HMA and its cousins, the Simple Moving Average (SMA), the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) to see what makes them different:

Simple Moving Average

The Simple Moving Average (SMA) is the most basic type of moving average. Despite being one of the pillars of technical analysis, due to its simplicity, it has many drawbacks. This drawback illustrates why there are so many different moving averages. All of them try to fix a particular issue with the indicator’s signals, effectiveness, or case of use.

The SMA is the easiest moving average to construct as all it considers is the average price over a specific period. The indicator is often used to determine trend direction. If it is moving up, the trend is doing the same. If the indicator is going down, so is the movement.

Traders often use a 200-bar SMA as a proxy for the long-term trend. On the other hand, to grasp the intermediate-term dynamics, they usually rely on a 50-bar SMA.

Of all moving average indicators, the SMA suffers the most from price lag. While traders try to negate this issue by using more extended periods, it comes at the expense of introducing more lag between the SMA and the source.

The HMA is far superior, considering that it gives traders a first-mover advantage, which the SMA cannot.

The chart below shows the difference between the HMA (blue line) and the SMA (yellow line). As we can see, the former is much smoother and follows the price much closely.

Exponential Moving Average

The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is similar to the Simple Moving Average (SMA). Both measure trend direction over a certain period, and the way we interpret their signals is also fairly similar.

The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) was designed to fix the problem with the excessive lag the SMA suffers from. The difference between both indicators is that, while the SMA calculates an average of price data, the EMA applies more weight to more recent data. While prioritizing recent periods is a viable strategy, it still doesn’t perfectly match the needs of more time-sensitive traders.

The HMA makes use of the EMA’s main advantage. It is much faster and smoother than the SMA. While the EMA eliminates a portion of the SMA’s lag, the HMA eliminates almost all of it to a point where its effect is negligible. Besides, it also improves the line smoothing process.

The example below shows a comparison between the HMA (blue line) and the EMA (green line). While the EMA is much closer to the price than the SMA, it is much less responsive to the market dynamics than the HMA.

Weighted Moving Average

The third moving average in the series, the Weighted Moving Average (WMA), is an enhanced version of the EMA. It puts even more weight on the recent price information and less on older data. To do that, the calculation of the WMA multiplies the price of each bar by the weighting factor. Consequently, the indicator is much more flexible than both the EMA and the SMA. However, it is, once again, no match for the HMA and its responsiveness.

The example below shows the difference between both indicators when plotted on the same chart. The HMA (blue line) tracks the price much more closely than the WMA (purple line).

Similar to all other moving averages, the WMA is used to determine the trend direction. Traders use it to identify buy and sell signals (buying when the price dips near or below the WMA and selling when it tops near or above it).

In a nutshell, while the WMA is much more sensitive to price changes than the SMA and EMA, it is still less responsive than the HMA.

Final Thoughts

The Hull Moving Average (HMA) is a fairly comprehensive indicator for day trading. While many consider it powerful enough to work as a standalone indicator, it is always better to complement its predictive ability with other indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Average True Range (ATR).

When it comes specifically to moving averages, while the HMA might be the most complete, responsive, lag- and noise-resistant among all, it isn’t necessarily the silver bullet. Furthermore, the fact that it is more responsive might be a double-edged sword. On one side, it can identify trends sooner, but, on the other, it can also experience whipsaws more often than the other moving averages.

To wrap up, the HMA is a great indicator to complement your technical trading arsenal if you know how to use it and take the time needed to master its application in a trading simulator.

SABR | AHMA | 15 min | 2024-06-25

 



Tradingview.com | Bollinger + RSI | SABR stock

 



Monday, June 24, 2024

Tradingview.com | Colored Volume Bars [LazyBear]

 Here is the link. 

Edgar Kraut proposed this simple colored volume bars strategy for swing trading.

This is how the colors are determined:
- If today’s closing price and volume are greater than 'n' days ago, color today’s volume bar green.
- If today’s closing price is greater than 'n' days ago but volume is not, color today’s volume bar blue.
- Similarly, if today’s closing price and volume is less than 'n' days ago, color today’s volume bar orange.
- If today’s closing price is less than 'n' days ago but volume is not, color today’s volume bar red.

Buy the green or blue volume bars, use a 1% trailing stop, and stand aside on red or orange bars.

As you see, this is more for entry confirmation. I have not tested this on any instrument.

You may have to tune the lookback period for your instrument. Default is 10.

More info:
"A color-based system for short-term trading" - www.traders.com/Docu...s/2011/07/kraut.html

Tradingview.com | Bollinger + RSI, Double Strategy (by ChartArt) v1.1

Here is the article. 

This strategy uses the RSI indicator together with the Bollinger Bands to sell when the price is above the upper Bollinger Band (and to buy when this value is below the lower band). This simple strategy only triggers when both the RSI and the Bollinger Band indicators are at the same time in a overbought or oversold condition.

Tradingview.com | SuperTrend

Here is the link. 

SuperTrend is one of the most common ATR based trailing stop indicators.

In this version you can change the ATR calculation method from the settings. Default method is RMA, when the alternative method is SMA.


The indicator is easy to use and gives an accurate reading about an ongoing trend. It is constructed with two parameters, namely period and multiplier. The default values used while constructing a superindicator are 10 for average true range or trading period and three for its multiplier.

The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.

The buy and sell signals are generated when the indicator starts plotting either on top of the closing price or below the closing price. A buy signal is generated when the ‘Supertrend’ closes above the price and a sell signal is generated when it closes below the closing price.

It also suggests that the trend is shifting from descending mode to ascending mode. Contrary to this, when a ‘Supertrend’ closes above the price, it generates a sell signal as the colour of the indicator changes into red.

A ‘Supertrend’ indicator can be used on equities, futures or forex, or even crypto markets and also on daily, weekly and hourly charts as well, but generally, it fails in a sideways-moving market.

I had converted Supertrend indicator code for various platforms like Metastock in 2017, but in this TradingView version special credit goes to everget - Alex Orekhov which gave a great inspiration to look my indicators better with highlights, signals and alarms. Thank you Alex.

NORTIV 8 Women's Waterproof Wide Hiking Boots Outdoor Trekking Camping Trail Hiking Boots

#WinterWorkingShoes #WaterProof #GoToWork

Here is the link. 

About this item

  • Excellent Comfort: Nortiv 8 women's waterproof hiking boots use our lightweight, durable midsole, and advanced traction rubber soles, which can be slip-resistant on rugged ground.
  • Combinations: This boot uses suede leather and suede ankle boots structure, and its durable mesh tongue provides breathability, allowing you to spend dangerous days on the road comfortably and safely.
  • Feminine Style: These women's waterproof hiking boots are fashionable, durable, and use a series of contrasting color combinations and a soft suede appearance.
  • Advanced Traction: This hiking boot uses excellent technology to provide the ultimate traction and grip in any environment of your choice.
  • What you get: Nortiv 8 aims at providing high-quality outdoor shoes.

10 Best Hiking Shoes of 2024

Here is the article. 

The Best Hiking Shoes for 2024


Are you searching for the best hiking shoes around? We've trail-tested over 330 of the best hiking shoes to get the top 10 rounded up. Over the years, we've worn these shoes on hundreds of miles of trails, going for runs, backpacking trips, and day hikes. We evaluated their comfort and support over long miles with heavy packs. We tested their traction on challenging surfaces, crossing streams, logs, and slippery boulders. We noted how well our feet were protected from obstacles and water and how versatile each pair was for all possible conditions. Whether you need a lightweight pair for fast missions or a sturdy pair for difficult terrain, we've found the perfect hiking shoe for just about any use.

Do you need more ankle support and overall coverage? We've tested the best footwear on the market, including the best men's hiking boots and the top-rated women's hiking boots. We've also tested the best winter boots for snowy or cold conditions, and if you're looking for shoes for casual dog walks or exploring a foreign city, check out our best walking shoes review. Once you have the right pair of shoes, we can help you find the best hiking socks or the best running socks, as well as the best insoles if you need a little more support. We've also tested tons of the top hiking gear for all your adventures, from the best binoculars to the top trekking poles.


Tradingview.com | Profit maximizer | 5 min RTH vs ETH | 10 min | 15 min

 5 min RTH


5 min ETH


10 min


Squeeze Momentum Indicator


1 min


5 min




Canadian banks | RBC, BMO, TD, CM, BNS

Tradingview.com | Profit maximizer | June 24 2024 | 1 min, 5 min, 15 min comparison

  1. 1 min - 8:48 AM
  2. 5 min 6:45 am
  3. 15 min 9:15 AM

1 min

5 min


15 min



PANW | tradingview.com | Profit maximizer | 15 min | June 24 2024

 


NVDA | tradingview.com | Profit maximizer | 15 min | June 24 2024

 


SABR stock | 1 min, 5, 10,15 minutes, 4 hrs, 8 hrs, 16 hrs | Maximum profit | Tradingview.com

 1 min

5 min
10 min
15 min


4 hours

8 hours
16 hours


CSCO stock | Tradingview.com | Maximum profit | Earnings date | May 16 2024

 


Sunday, June 23, 2024

Most Popular Indicator Ever: Squeeze Momentum Indicator (by Lazybear) - Catching Breakouts Tutorial

Here is the article.

The squeeze Momentum Indicator is the most popular indicator in Tradingview's public library. There must be a reason behind its fame. In today's video, I will show you one of the most profitable ways to trade the Squeeze Momentum Indicator. Before you ask, we will not use it to trade divergences. We will try to catch the breakouts with the squeeze indicator. #squeezemomentumindicator #lazybear #tradingview

Tips to increase the Win Rate

  1. At least 6 dark blue dots in a row
  2. Avoid huge candles
  3. Use the 200 EMA (optional)
  4. Always use stop loss ( 2 x ATR)
  5. Check if the price is in a range