Thursday, April 27, 2023
keenongreenrecycle.com
https://www.keenongreenrecycle.com/junk-removal-rates/
| mattress / box spring | $130 – $140 |
George R. Bravante Jr.
George R. Bravante Jr.
Mr. Bravante joined the Company as a director in December 2014. He is the co-founder and the managing member of the general partner of Bravante-Curci Investors, LP, an investment firm focusing on real estate investments in California. Mr. Bravante has held this position since 1996. Since 2005, he has also been the owner of Bravante Produce, a grower, packer and shipper of premium California table grapes and citrus. Previously, he served as chairman of the board of ExpressJet Holdings, Inc. from 2005 to 2010 and was a member of its board from 2004 to 2010. From 1994 to 1996, Mr. Bravante was President and Chief Operating Officer of Colony Advisors, Inc., a real estate asset management company, and prior to that he was President and Chief Operating Officer of America Real Estate Group, Inc., where he led strategic management, restructuring and disposition of assets. He serves as a director of KBS Growth & Income REIT, Inc., a real estate investment trust.
Hervé Couturier
Hervé Couturier
Mr. Couturier has served on our board of directors since December 2017. Mr. Couturier is a private investor and product strategy consultant. He currently serves as president of Kerney Partners, a consulting firm. From 2012 to 2016, he was executive vice president, research and development, at Amadeus, an airline reservation systems provider. From 2007 to 2012, he was executive vice president of SAP AG’s technology group and head of research.
He also serves as a board member for SimCorp A/S, a public Danish software company, and has held management positions at a number of IT companies including Business Objects, the worldwide leader of business intelligence solutions, now part of SAP, S1 Corporation, a provider of payment software for financial institutions, and XRT, a leading European treasury management software company, now part of the Sage Group PLC.
Mr. Couturier began his career at IBM in 1982, where he held various engineering and business positions until 1997.
亚马逊启动大裁员 涉及云计算和人力资源员工
周三，亚马逊开始对其云计算和人力资源部门的一些员工进行裁员。
Amazon Web Services 首席执行官亚当•塞利普斯基（Adam Selipsky） 和人力资源主管贝丝•加莱蒂（Beth Galetti） 向美国、加拿大和哥斯达黎加的员工发送了通知，告知他们裁员的消息。“这是我们公司艰难的一天，”塞利普斯基写道。
此次裁员是此前宣布的裁员计划的一部分，预计将影响9千名员工。上周，亚马逊解雇了其广告部门的一些员工，最近几周也解雇了视频游戏和 Twitch 直播部门的员工。
FRC rescue | Big bank doubts
Bankers’ pitch to save First Republic: Help us now, or pay more later when it fails
Big bank doubts
While the exact contour of any deal is a matter for negotiation and could include a special purpose vehicle or direct purchases, several possibilities address the bank’s ailing balance sheet. The bank is weighing the sale of $50 billion to $100 billion in debt, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.
First Republic loaded up on low-yielding assets including Treasurys, municipal bonds and mortgages, making what was essentially a bet that interest rates wouldn’t rise. When they did, the bank found itself with tens of billions of dollars in losses.
By drastically reducing the size of its balance sheet, the bank’s capital ratios will suddenly be far healthier, paving the way for it to raise more funds and continue as an independent company.
Other possible, but less likely moves include converting the big bank’s deposits into equity, or even finding a buyer. But a suitor hasn’t emerged in the past month, and isn’t likely given that any purchaser would also own the losses on First Republic’s balance sheet.
That has led sources close to the big banks to believe that the most likely scenario for First Republic is government receivership, which is how SVB and Signature were resolved.
Those close to the banks were hesitant to endorse a plan in which they would have to recognize losses for overpaying for bonds. They also expressed distrust of government-brokered deals after some of the pacts from the 2008 financial crisis ended up being costlier than expected.
FRC rescue | Time to read and learn
Bankers’ pitch to save First Republic: Help us now, or pay more later when it fails
Lazard and JPMorgan Chase were hired last month to advise First Republic, according to media reports.
The key advantage of the advisors’ plan, they say, is that it allows First Republic to offload some, but not all of its underwater bonds. In a government receivership, the whole portfolio must get marked down at once, resulting in what Morgan Stanley analysts estimated to be a $27 billion hit.
One complication, however, is that the advisors are relying on the U.S. government to summon bank CEOs together to explore possible solutions.
There have been false starts already: One top four U.S. bank said that the government told it to be ready to act on the First Republic situation this past weekend, but nothing happened.
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Wednesday, April 26, 2023
美股明年将强劲反弹!数万亿美元资金正等待进场
财联社 4 月 25 日讯（编辑 黄君芝）美国银行（Bank of America）周一最新发布的一份报告显示，随着企业盈利令人印象深刻，数万亿美元的闲置资金将被用于投资，美国股市有望在 2024 年强劲反弹。
该行强调，只要信贷状况不进一步恶化，明年企业盈利增速应会超过经济增速。以 Savita Subramanian 为首美银策略师们认为，市场近期对美联储降息的预期，以及各企业成本削减，预示着 2024 年美国股市可能更加强劲，再加上明年可能还会受到财政刺激的推动。
" 从历史上看，盈利增长恢复的速度要快于下降的速度。" 他们写道。
事实上，本季度的盈利状况已经好于预期。到目前为止，标准普尔 500 指数成份股公司中有 25% 已经公布了第一季度业绩，其中 68% 超过利润预期，75% 超过销售预期，均高于历史平均水平。
美银认为，这是盈利持续增长的一个好迹象，目前企业所面临的大量宏观不利因素可能会在明年消散。
" 到 2024 年，盈利增长可能会超过经济增长，因为盈利下滑开始于本轮周期的经济衰退。盈利的恢复也往往比下降更强劲，因为经济低迷通常会消除过剩产能，从而降低成本结构，提高利润率。" 分析师们解释道。
尽管硅谷银行（SVB）上个月倒闭，但如果私募股权和风险投资公司动用 2.2 万亿美元的现金储备，信贷环境仍有可能保持稳定。
" 来自央行、政府和银行的流动性可能正在减弱，但风险资本 / 私募股权公司的现金储备仍处于创纪录水平，" 报告称。
此外，私募股权公司并不是唯一囤积现金的公司。投资者向货币市场基金投入了创纪录的 5 万亿美元。
美银指出，虽然这种无风险回报对投资者来说很有吸引力，但风险资产的强劲反弹可能会促使部分资金回流股市，从而帮助推高股价
Meta | Meta -> MetAI
财联社 4 月 25 日（编辑 马兰）Meta 首席执行官、创始人扎克伯格，因元宇宙赌注失败而登上了各个投资人心中的密切关注名单，许多人都在猜测扎克伯格下一轮押注是否还是以失败告终。
据 Meta 首席技术官 Andrew Bosworth 此前表示，扎克伯格和 Meta 其它高管现在正将大部分时间花在人工智能上。
对于科技公司来说，现在几乎 99% 的人都在扎堆抢占 AI 赛道，Meta 的入局可以说一点也不意外。但对于一些分析师来说，扎克伯格的痴迷有些时候就像是一剂毒药。
私人财富管理公司 Bernstein 的分析师在客户邮件中打趣道，Meta 的效率年改革似乎正在走向结束，Meta 或许即将改名为 MetAI。请密切关注扎克伯格对人工智能的新发现。
Bernstein 并不是不看好 Meta 的 AI 业务，其只是担心，扎克伯格会再次复制元宇宙上的策略：烧钱烧到公司动荡。
效率年中的挥霍
扎克伯格此前将 Meta 的资源大部分投入元宇宙事业，甚至将公司名称从 Facebook 改成 Meta，不断鼓吹元宇宙在人类未来中的重要性。
但遗憾的是，在元宇宙来临之前，科技业先迎来了人工智能概念的爆发。元宇宙不仅没有帮公司更上层楼，反而因为大量的支出，连累 Meta 股价去年不断下跌。
元宇宙的挥霍之后，Meta 宣称进入效率年，取消了大量的资金密集型项目，并进行大规模裁员，似是在安抚市场的成本担忧。但 AI 的横空出世打破了效率年的平静。
由于 ChatGPT 掀起的人工智能高热，扎克伯格更换赛道拉着 Meta 朝 AI 进军。这又让不少人心有戚戚，担心他再次在昂贵的新技术中失去理智。
事实上，早在去年 10 月，Meta 的首席财务官就已经透露，2023 年 Meta 几乎所有的资本支出增长可能将由人工智能引发。自那时起，Meta 就开始不间断地购进英伟达的芯片。
这批芯片每个的成本约为 1 万美元，是 MetaAI 研究小组培训生成式人工智能的必要组件。目前该小组正使用 2048 个 A100 芯片来训练 Meta 自己的语言模型。
然而，扎克伯格大手笔购买数千个昂贵英伟达芯片，以训练人工智能的做法让投资人闻到了熟悉的味道：大量的成本投入最后做出来一个花花架子的故事，似乎过分耳熟。元宇宙的失败，显然让这些投资人一直处于 " 狼来了 " 的氛围中。
市场正在密切关注 Meta 将于本周三公布的季度业绩，华尔街将根据财报调整对 Meta 人工智能业务的期待和对 Meta 效率年的信心。
略让人心安的是，相比于元宇宙，人工智能技术已经经过了市场验证，且与 Meta 的主营社交、广告业务联系更紧密。这代表着 Meta 就算无法在 AI 领域中力挫群雄，其也能因为 AI 业务提升主营业务的优势。
Meta 首席运营官 Javier Olivan 在最近的一次会议上表示，Meta 现在的问题是，如何用人工智能，在核心业务和广告上制作出更具相关性的广告？
科普|关于杀虫剂，你了解多少？
科普|关于杀虫剂，你了解多少？
日常生活中，我们会使用到各种各样的杀虫剂，除居家常用的杀虫气雾剂之外，还有用于城市卫生害虫和农业害虫防治的各类品种。
杀虫剂使用历史长、用量大。根据不同分类标准，杀虫剂的种类也多种多样。若按作用方式分类，可以分为胃毒剂、触杀剂、熏蒸剂、内吸杀虫剂等；按毒理作用分类可分为神经毒剂、呼吸毒剂、物理性毒剂、特异性杀虫剂等；按来源分类可分为无机和矿物杀虫剂、植物性杀虫剂、有机合成杀虫剂、昆虫激素类杀虫剂等。
虽然杀虫剂对于害虫防治和提高农业作物的产量有重要作用，但是大部分对人体和生态环境也都有一定害处，因此，正确使用杀虫剂尤为重要，只有掌握了科学使用的知识和方法，才能尽可能趋利避害，发挥好杀虫剂的功用。例如，田间常用的Bt杀虫剂，对食叶的蔬菜害虫，如菜青虫、小菜蛾等防治效果非常显著。在使用时，我们要确保杀虫剂质量，满足Bt菌迅速生长的温度条件，温度越高，其致病力越强。
生活中，我们还需注意杀虫剂残余污染的危害。例如，小孩们通常喜欢在草地或草坪上玩耍，如果回家后他们出现腹泻、皮肤潮红过敏等现象，那很有可能是草地上残留的杀虫剂或除草剂所致，这些污染对人体的伤害不可轻视。此外，日常家用杀虫气雾剂要放置在阴凉处，避免儿童接触，虽然目前世界各国一致公认丙烯菊酯、溴氰菊酯等拟除虫菊酯类杀虫剂是安全的，但如果长时间在密闭环境中使用，还是会对身体有一定影响，所以，使用时一定要注意室内通风。
Meta bonus for executives - CFO, CPO, COO, CTO
Meta CEO Zuckerberg grilled for paying bonuses up to Rs 7.70 crore amid layoffs
- Updated Apr 25, 2023, 7:47 PM IST
Meta has faced backlash from employees after it was revealed that top executives received six-figure bonuses in 2022 despite the company's turbulent time of layoffs and stock dips. A virtual Q&A session with CEO Mark Zuckerberg brought forth this issue of high payouts in the light of ongoing layoffs. Reportedly, workers grilled Meta CEO about the bonuses. The bonuses were given to CFO Susan Li, CPO Christoper Cox, COO Javier Olivan, CTO Andrew Bosworth, Strategy Officer David Whener, and former COO Sheryl Sandberg. The bonus offered to an individual executive was as high as Rs 7.70 crore.
Here are bonuses handed out to executives, according to the company's SEC filing released last week, cited by Entrepreneur:
CFO Susan Li- $575,613 (Rs 4.71 crore)
CPO Christoper Cox $940,214 (Rs 7.70 crore)
COO Javier Olivan $786,552 (Rs 6.44 crore)
CTO Andrew Bosworth $714,588 (Rs 5.85 crore)
Strategy Officer (CSO) David Whener $712,284 (Rs 5.83 crore)
Former COO Sheryl Sandberg $298,385 (Rs 2.44 crore)
Zuckerberg allegedly defended the bonuses, stating that some of the executives had taken on expanded scopes and stepped into new roles. However, employees found his response "shallow" and "patronizing." The news has sparked outrage from employees and the public, with many questioning the accountability of the company's top executives.
However, the company is not the only tech giant that gave out generous bonuses amid downsizing. Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pichai received nearly $226 million in 2022, with his total compensation for 2021 being $6,322,599. All five other top executives at Alphabet also received compensation in the millions for 2022, with an increase of at least nine million compared to the year before. In January, Google announced it would be laying off 12,000 employees and cutting back on office perks and programs to cut costs.
Costco | Mattress | Memory foam
软和硬是假象。
应该是骨架密实，表面柔软。传统席梦思是弹簧的，弹簧柱的数量和质量决定了这架席梦思能否托起你的骨架。如何检查一架席梦思的 coils 数量？正规厂家的都有标明，可以断言：不敢标明的都不是正规厂家。查查COSTCO的MATRESS目录，价格就是跟coils数量挂钩的。600$ 以上的质量就已经说得过去了，1000$ 左右的理想，2000$+的就豪华了。弹簧的又分 push--反弹助推型，小夫妻适用，和 firm--结实型，要翻身快，要硬的，选这个。
记忆泡沫的是全面深刻研究人体骨架后的高科技产品，高档的也过2000$了，500$以上的说得过去了。
个人体验：记忆泡沫的最好。柔软舒适绝无塌陷感。
IKEA | TAGELSÄV Mattress protector
Easy-care mattress protector that fits perfectly on smaller guest- or campervan beds helping to keep the mattress clean and fresh. Recycled polyester wadding adds an extra layer of softness and protection.
Product details
A mattress protector between your sheet and mattress protects from stains and dirt and prolongs the life of your mattress.
An elastic strap in each corner keeps your mattress protector in place.
The mattress protector is machine-washable at 140°F (Hot), a temperature that kills dust mites.
IKEA of Sweden
Article Number
Tuesday, April 25, 2023
AAL | Debt management
https://airlineweekly.com/2022/12/over-leveraged-american-airlines-takes-another-big-step-to-pay-down-debt/
Over-Leveraged American Airlines Takes Another Big Step to Pay Down Debt
American Airlines leadership knows they have a debt problem. That’s why the carrier is aggressively repaying its obligations with an unexpected payment of more than $1 billion this week. Merry Christmas Wall Street.
The Fort Worth, Texas-based airline repaid early a $1.18 billion term loan backed by its slots at New York LaGuardia and Washington Reagan National airport Monday, according to a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The debt was not due for another year, or until December 2023. And the payment was unexpected after American Chief Financial Officer Derek Kerr said in October that the airline would only repay roughly $540 million in debt during the December quarter.
Despite the news, American remains one of the most leveraged major U.S. airlines and, while not necessarily in jeopardy, on many analysts’ lists of companies with high debt loads.
American had $34 billion in long-term debt and finance lease obligations, excluding debt that is due within 12 months, at the end of September. That number balloons to nearly $53 billion when including all liabilities, including unfunded pension obligations. Much of that leverage came from its fleet renewal program during the 2010s that saw it replace hundreds of older Boeing 757 and 767, and McDonnell Douglas MD-80 aircraft, with new Airbus and Boeing models. American’s long-term debt and finance leases load was down from a pandemic peak of $37.2 billion in the first and second quarters of 2021, but up $12.5 billion from the end of 2019.
Comparatively, Delta Air Lines had $21.2 billion in non-current long-term debt, and United Airlines $28.6 billion at the end of September.
“Reducing total debt continues to be a top priority,” Kerr said in October. The airline targets $15 billion in debt reduction from its 2021 peak, or to roughly $22 billion, by the end of 2025.
All of that is well and good for credit analysts, but not enough to lift American from anyone’s leverage list. J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Streeter wrote earlier in December that the airline “will remain in focus” in 2023 due to its high debt load. He specified that American was not considered a restructuring risk currently because it also maintains a high level of liquidity commensurate with its debt load.
American had $14.3 billion in liquidity available, including cash, cash equivalents, and revolver capacity, at the end of September.
The airline also benefitted from $12.8 billion in payroll support funds from the U.S. government under the CARES Act Covid relief packages. Payroll support does not need to be repaid. American also borrowed another $550 million from the U.S. Treasury under a $25 billion CARES Act loan program for airlines; it repaid those funds and terminated the credit agreement in March 2021.
The question facing American, however, is what happens if air travel demand tanks and it is unable to maintain those liquidity levels. Few expect this to happen — U.S. airline CEOs have repeatedly said travel demand remains robust despite an uncertain economic picture — but, in the world of business, worst case scenarios must be considered, especially given the airline’s debt levels. American, for its part, expects the string of profits that began in the second quarter to continue in 2023.
“The leveraged airlines better hope that cash is available to repay debt because the cost of refinancing debt is now sky high,” Streeter wrote. He referred to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent rate hikes that have significantly increased the cost of borrowing; especially when compared to debt that was borrowed when rates were at historic lows during the Covid crisis.
Kerr, in October, acknowledged the rise in the cost of capital. Higher rates had increased American’s average interest rate by about 1 point to roughly 5 percent, or about $40 million in additional expense in the fourth quarter compared to the third, he said. However, those same rate hikes have increased the carrier’s returns on the cash it holds in the bank that effectively neutralizes the additional expense.
American anticipates hitting the halfway point, or $7.5 billion, of its 2025 debt repayment target by the end of the year. That includes $5.6 billion already repaid at the end of September, the payment Monday, plus the $540 million in planned December quarter debt payments outlined in October.
That’s a good place for American to be sitting as the industry enters an uncertain 2023, even with travel demand seeming to continue unabated. If demand does not turn out as expected, or there is a — highly likely — unexpected surprise, the airline can push off the balance of its deleveraging until the economic situation looks brighter again in either 2024 or 2025.
But Kerr, who has managed American’s books since its merger with US Airways in 2023, will not be there to see the deleveraging through. He steps down as CFO at the end of the year with Devon May, the airline’s senior vice president of finance and investor relations, replacing him.
“We have to be profitable in order to really serve the needs of our communities, our customers and the shareholders of this company,” American CEO Robert Isom said in October. “We’re intent on doing it, and we’re going to make sure that this airline is one that you can count on in terms of producing profits, ultimately reducing debt over time and being sustainable from a profitability perspective.”
林建海先生 | 8902 class | SJTU
林建海先生曾担任上海交通大学机械工程系讲师，上海浦东机场建设指挥部总工程师办公室副主任，上海国际机场股份有限公司通讯信息工程 分公司副总经理，上海浦东国际机场二期工程建设指挥部总工程师办公室主任、信息部部长、能源中心项目工程部部长、副总工程师，上海机 场建设指挥部信息系统部部长、副总工程师，上海国际机场股份有限公司总工程师，上海民航华东凯亚系统集成有限公司副董事长等职务。现 任上海国际机场股份有限公司副总经理、党委委员，上海国际机场地面服务有限公司董事长，上海机场贵宾服务有限公司董事，上海霍克太平 洋公务航空地面服务有限公司董事。
https://stock.qianzhan.com/item/geren-230ad593bd2c.html
Here is the link.
Ivan Heneghan | 6 years, 6 lessons at Meta | 2014 - 2019
Director, Sales Development Strategy & Operations @ Workday | Facebook, Instagram, Google alum | Intrapreneur | Motivational speaker.
Linkedin post is here
This was me exactly 4 years ago, as I left Facebook after 6.5 years - joining as employee #30 in Ireland, leaving as one of almost 2,000.
6 years, 6 lessons:
1. Done is better than perfect. I tried to preempt every possible scenario for my work, and slowed things down. Execute and iterate.
2. Take educated risks. I believed one of my teams needed to do something very different and I pushed for it, layering data on belief. What my team and I introduced, despite being shouted down from all sides, changed things for the better.
3. "That's how we've always done it" will kill a company.
4. If you find it, you fix it. Nothing is someone else's job, or task, or problem.
5. Have an impact. Your job title and level mean nothing. Focus on impact - that's what will resonate throughout your career and get you into the roles you want to be in.
6. None of it matters. I had a brain haemorrhage while in Facebook, and mostly recovered. I left Facebook, and the working world. I went to the Arctic and stayed in deserts. I tried to figure out how to be happier, and succeeded. I panicked about being out of the working world, but stuck to my guns. And I'm now in the role I love the most in my career so far. Being as happy as you can be, and being kind, is all that matters.
FRC | Short bets | 43% down Earnings date | April 25 2023
A lot of money is riding on its fate. Everyday investors have bet $245 million on First Republic stock since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank, according to Vanda Research, the third highest inflow to a specific bank stock behind Bank of America (BAC) and Charles Schwab (SCHW).
It also has one of the highest levels of interest among so-called short sellers betting on the stock to decline, according to analytics firm S3 Partners, accounting for $480 million in such bets over the last 30 days.
First Republic "will be a bellwether of sentiment for the sector," Vanda said in a note last week.
Monday, April 24, 2023
Nick Timiraos | 银行业的混乱可能还没结束
美联储进入噤声期之际，其“喉舌”撰文表示，银行业混乱可能还没结束，数百家贷款机构倒闭的灾难恐重现……
本周起美联储进入噤声期，而素有“美联储传声筒”之称的Nick Timiraos撰文称：银行业的混乱可能还没结束。以下是全文：
上个月银行业危机的恐慌阶段可能即将结束。现在最大的问题是，如果贷款减少，经济将面临多大程度的打击。答案可能几个月后才会明朗。
一个月前，硅谷银行和签名银行的倒闭打破了本已脆弱的平衡，因为在美联储大举提高短期利率以对抗高通胀之际，许多银行并没有提高存款利率。
这两家银行的储户挤兑导致其他小型或地区性银行的客户，包括维护大量工资账户的公司财务主管都在质疑他们是否应该将没有保险的存款转移到监管更严格的大型银行
但由于长期储户已经意识到将资金转移到货币市场共同基金（MMF）可以获得更多收益，中小银行存款缓慢而稳定的存款外流可能会继续下去。
银行更高的融资成本将挤压利润。高盛的经济学家估计，银行盈利能力每下降10%，贷款就会减少2%。如果“存款贝塔系数”（即美联储利率变动对银行存款利率的影响）达到2007年的水平，可能会导致美国贷款下降3%至6%。
高盛预计，这可能使今年的经济产出减少0.3至0.5个百分点。该投行的经济学家认为存款贝塔系数可能高于前几个周期的原因众多，包括美联储最近加息的速度可能已经让漫不经心的储户突然注意到高收益的替代品，另外手机银行还降低了银行间转移存款的成本，加剧了竞争等。
存款利率往往会在美联储停止加息后的两到三个季度左右达到峰值，这意味着存款利率可能会在今年年底前继续上升。美联储官员已经暗示，他们可能会在5月2日至3日的会议上将联邦基金利率上调至略高于5%的水平，然后考虑暂停加息。
在“资金大战”中因存款外逃而失去廉价资金来源的中小银行可能面临融资压力，这导致股价下跌后其股票仍不具吸引力，因此那些市值大幅缩水的银行可能还难以筹集资金。
TS Lombard首席美国经济学家布利茨（Steven Blitz）说，许多小银行的贷存比接近80%，而大银行的贷存比为60%。他说，拥有更多存款的大型银行没有理由担心存款外流，如果需要收缩资产负债表，它们更有可能减持证券，而非减少贷款。
但对于数百家规模较小的银行来说，更有可能的解决方案是减少贷款。前达拉斯联储主席卡普兰本月在投资银行咨询公司Evercore ISI主持的一次电话会议上表示：
“全国范围内的情况是，这些银行冻结甚至非常想要降低贷存比。这就是美国的很多中小企业都接到‘到今年年底，银行将无法再提供贷款，或者将重新定价定价贷款’通知的原因。”
利率风险是硅谷银行挤兑的催化剂。2020-2021年，随着财政刺激带来的存款大量涌入，银行增加了对抵押贷款支持证券或较长期国债的投资。随后美联储加息导致这些债券价值下降，银行持有这些证券可能面临着巨额未实现损失。
如果银行面临因贷款违约而造成损失的担忧，储户的焦虑情绪可能会卷土重来。
卡普兰认为，目前的银行业危机“正处在第二或第三局，而不是最终局。”他认为，在对后果有更好的认识之前，美联储不应该加息，特别是如果今年晚些时候不得不降息以应对更大的危机，那将损害美联储的声誉。他说：
“恐怕我们会遇到一些我们无法完全理解的事情。”
高盛的数据显示，雇员少于100人的企业近70%的工商业贷款来自资产规模低于2500亿美元的银行，30%来自于资产规模低于100亿美元的银行。
该投行的经济学家估计，这种联系在中小城市更为紧密。数据显示，在美国大多数地区，中小银行占小企业贷款的90%。
可以肯定的是，目前的情况与2008年的金融危机几乎没有相似之处，那次危机是由承销不良抵押贷款推动的，这些抵押贷款被捆绑成难以估值的证券。当时出现了一个危险的反馈循环，即抵押债券价格下跌导致银行停止放贷，导致更多房屋丧失抵押品赎回权，反过来又导致抵押债券价格进一步下跌。
对银行业压力的担忧导致政府债券价格上涨，收益率下降，帮助银行减少其持有债券的未实现损失。蒙特利尔BCA Research首席全球策略师贝雷津（Peter Berezin）表示：
“这更像是一个自我抑制而非自我强化的周期。”
这使得当前的动荡可能类似于上世纪80年代末的储贷危机，当时有数百家贷款机构倒闭。问题持续了数年，但经济直到1990年才出现衰退。
Google engineer salary | Alexander Nguyen | 2023 April 24
Medium.com article is here.
Base salary
At Google, my current salary is $169,000. This breaks down to $14,000 a month before taxes. It’s an amazingly large amount for someone with 3 years of experience and only a bachelor’s degree in computer science.
Performance bonus
The bonus is split and awarded in two amounts, 80% of the 15% bonus in January and 20% of the 15% bonus in March. Meaning I receive an additional $20,000 in January, and $5,000 in March.
Signing bonus
When I joined Google, I was offered a $25,000 sign-on bonus. My tenure is almost at 1 year so I won’t have to pay the bonus back if I move on the company later on.
Equity
My award is $296,000 of equity, that is split over 4 years and given every month. If it was split evenly at 25%, then every month I would receive $6000 worth of google stock.
At Google, it’s split for me at 33%, 33%, 22%, 12%. For the first 2 years, I’ll receive $8000 stock per month, and then $5,400 my third year, and then $2,900 my forth year.
Sunday, April 23, 2023
Warren Buffett: 12 Mistakes Every Investor Makes
Warren Buffett reveals his investment strategy and mastering the market
Warren Buffett is the godfather of modern-day investing. For nearly 50 years, Buffett has run Berkshire Hathaway, which owns over 60 companies, like Geico and Dairy Queen, plus minority stakes in Apple, Coca-Cola, and many others. His $82.5 billion fortune makes him the third richest person in the world. And he's vowed to give nearly all of it away. The Oracle of Omaha is here to talk about what shaped his investment strategy and how to master today's market.
I'm Andy Serwer. Welcome to a special edition of "Influencers" from Omaha, Nebraska. It's my pleasure to welcome Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Warren, welcome.Tech companies | Layoffs
Tech companies are finally firing tech workers
Software engineers made up the biggest portion of tech layoffs in 2023.
If you were unlucky enough to have lost your job in the last 15 years, someone might have suggested — often unhelpfully — that you “learn to code.” It was shorthand for “do something actually useful that would have kept you from being laid off in the first place.”
That advice is starting to feel even less welcome.
The latest round of layoffs at Facebook parent company Meta is impacting workers in core technical roles like data scientists and software engineers — positions once thought to be beyond reproach. This represents a stark about-face for a company that, until recently, had been offering outrageous salaries and basically hoarding people in these highly sought-after technical positions. And now, as part of the company’s “year of efficiency,” it’s letting some of them go. As Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg put it, “We’re in a different world.”
The beleaguered social media company is also not alone.
Software engineers were the most overrepresented position in layoffs in 2023, relative to their employment, according to data requested by Vox from workforce data company Revelio Labs. Last year, when major tech layoffs first began, recruiters and customer success specialists experienced the most outsize impact. So far this year, nearly 20 percent of the 170,000 tech company layoffs were software engineers, even though they made up roughly 14 percent of employees at these companies.
“Early layoffs were dominated by recruiters, which is forgoing future hiring,” Revelio senior economist Reyhan Ayas told Vox. “Whereas in 2023 we see a shift toward more core engineering and software engineering, which signals a change in focus of current business priorities.”
In other words, tech companies aren’t just trimming the fat by firing people who fill out their extensive ecosystem, which ranges from marketers to massage therapists. They’re also, many for the first time, making cuts to the people who build the very products they’re known for, and who enjoyed a sort of revered status since they, like the founders of the companies, were coders. Software engineers are still important, but they don’t have the power they used to
“Before it was just, ‘the more or better, whatever it takes to recruit the best talent,’” said Daniel Keum, an associate professor of management at Columbia University’s business school, said of tech companies. “Now they’re cost-conscious, they want to be optimized and economized.”
He added, “That’s an entirely different mindset. We haven’t seen this before.”
Tech companies grew rapidly during the pandemic, when people were home and their services were needed more than ever, but much of that demand has died down. In the meantime, the tech companies that hugely expanded their head counts in that time failed to come up with the next big thing, meaning they don’t have new sources of massive revenue to pull from and have been forced to switch from growth mode to maintenance. Meanwhile, the economy is not as strong as it was, and Wall Street is telling tech companies that less is more. The rise of AI at work is also a contributing factor, since it allows coders to be more productive, or potentially allows employers to do the same work as before but with fewer workers.
Additionally, Keum said that Elon Musk, who fired 80 percent of his staff but still has a (sort of) functioning product, has become a sort of inspiration for other tech CEOs, who see his extreme cuts as a way of making their more modest ones seem “morally and culturally acceptable.”
Their stance? “‘Thank you, Elon Musk, for showing us that it can be done. And thank you Elon Musk for taking the blame,’” Keum said.
Of course, this might be short-term thinking. While they might save companies some money, ultimately layoffs can be bad for business, lessening morale and productivity and making it harder for companies to grow in the future, when the economy improves. That fact doesn’t seem to be stopping tech companies from joining the layoff bandwagon, whether it’s strictly necessary or not.
For software engineers and other tech workers, however, this doesn’t spell the end of the world. They’re still hugely in demand, but their bargaining power and ability to ask for over-the-top perks and salaries has been muted.
The latest monthly jobs report by tech industry association CompTIA found that even though employment at tech companies (which includes all roles at those companies) declined slightly in March, employment in technical occupations across industry sectors increased by nearly 200,000 positions. So even if tech companies are laying off tech workers, other industries are snatching them up. Unfortunately for software engineers and the like, that means they might also have to follow those industries’ pay schemes. The average software engineer base pay in the US is $90,000, according to PayScale, but can be substantially higher at tech firms like Facebook, where such workers also get bonuses and stock options.
“If you’re a tech person, before, you’d only consider Silicon Valley and top-five firms,” Keum said. “Now, our graduates are thinking about okay, maybe an industrial company. They’re diversifying away from traditional ‘tech tech’ type jobs”
“You have to look a little wider now,” he said.