orcl stock sell put $190 in 3 weeks is a good idea or not

 AI Overview

Based on data from late January 2026, selling a $190 put on Oracle (ORCL) with a 3-week expiration is a 

high-risk, tactical move, as the stock has recently experienced significant downward pressure, dropping below $180. 

Here is an analysis of why this strategy is risky, given that Oracle (ORCL) closed at $173.88 on January 21, 2026. 

Key Considerations (as of Jan 21, 2026)

• Deeply In-the-Money (ITM): With ORCL trading around $174, a $190 strike put is already over $15 in-the-money. This means if you sell this put, you are highly likely to be assigned and forced to buy the shares at $190, even though they are trading significantly lower.
• High Risk of Assignment: A sold put is "assigned" if the stock price is below the strike price at expiration. Given the current price of $174, the probability of assignment is very high.
• Significant Unrealized Loss: If assigned at $190 while the stock is at $174, you would immediately have an unrealized loss of roughly $16 per share ($1,600 per contract), minus whatever premium you collected.
• Weak Support Levels: Recent analysis indicated that if the $176 support level was broken, there might not be strong support until the $153-$156 range. 

Is it a Good Idea?

No, this is likely not a good idea unless your specific goal is to acquire ORCL shares at a "discounted" price compared to higher prices earlier in the month.

• If you want the stock: You are better off buying the shares outright at $174 rather than promising to buy them at $190.
• If you are looking for income (premium): While the premium will be high, the risk of assignment and a $1,600+ loss makes it a dangerous, non-defensive play.
• If you are bearish: You should not be selling put options (which is a bullish or neutral strategy). 

Technical Context (Jan 2026)

• Down Trend: The stock has shown major weakness, with recent reports highlighting a 17% drop in 5 days, showing "wild" volatility.
• Lower Support: Recent data shows the stock falling below $180, potentially toward $170. 

Conclusion: Selling a $190 put when the stock is at $174 is a aggressive bet that the stock will sharply rebound back over $190 in just 3 weeks, which contradicts the current downward momentum.