Buy high when SPX 3300

Buy high when SPX 3300 

I have to push myself to learn more before I invest all my cash into TFSA. I have to time the market when bear market is almost in the bottom. But in February 2020, I made mistakes to put $13000 Canadian dollars into the equity.

My research is so limited, I did not ask myself why Warren Buffet holds so many cash, and his warning about bear market is coming, 50% loss of equity.

Now the above $13,000 dollars of VDU.TO and VFV.TO has more than -30% market change.

VFV.TO 83 shares at price $78.99 Feb. 6, 2020. Compared to current price, the price is $58.03 on March 23, 2020.

The market change of the above VFV.TO is ($1822.68), percent profit/ loss 27.80%.

VDU.TO 179 share at price $36.87. Compared to today's price, the price is $26.70. The market change is ($1804.32), 27.339%.

Bible verse

誠實人必多得福，想要急速發財的不免受罰。箴言 28:20

Go back to be a Christian

March 23, 2020

Introduction

I learn how to calm down and enjoy life better; I think that I will face difficulty to learn how to handle market swings in my investment, and also find full time work in recession. I should be better to go back to be a Christian. 

Be a Christian

First of all, I should be thankful to be a Christian from 2001 to 2019. Even though I struggle so hard financially; Also I should be thankful when I notice that I should learn to work on personal finance research in November 2018. Do not blame on my Christian belief for my financial illiteracy. I do believe that investment on stock market may help me to get rid of poverty from May 2019 to March 2020, but I learn to be a long term investor. I like to grow with US economy together.

First of all, I should spend time to learn more about Corona virus, and contacted my siblings in China, and got more update on this virus. I also should act as a Christian, love your neighbors. Do not think about making money on stock market in February 2020, spend time to show compassion to Chinese in China and understand Corona virus and its impact to global economy.

Investment is long term effort. Do not act on impulsive, do not rush. If I can analyze the impact of Corona virus, then I should be able to learn to avoid this massive loss in market crash in March 2020.

Why now? 

I wrote a blog and then had 2 minute quick summary of my February 6, 2020 investment.

Key largo asset allocation on March 23, 2020

March 23, 2020

Introduction

It is important for me to review my key largo asset allocation, and I like to learn some basics about asset allocation

March 23, 2020

I like to take some time to review the positions and profit/ loss, and think about how to prepare next big crash, circuit break.

My rebalance history

I made three rebalance transactions, one is in January 21, 2020, second one is March 6, and the third one is March 12.

My review

I should try to survive worst market in the history, so that I can sell some bonds and purchase equity when the market is lowest point in next 12 to 18 months. I do believe that SPX may go down to 1000 point back to 2009 level.

Victoria portfolio asset allocation - My TFSA account

March 23, 2020

Introduction

It is important for me to learn how to be a long term investor. I have to push myself to learn how to be frugal, and in the same time I have to learn how to buy low and sell high. Now it is time for to purchase some equity when SPX  is around 2200 - 2300.

Preparation for rebalance

I like to document my positions first, and then I should tell from the position what I should.

First step I plan to sell 100 shares of VAB.TO, take a loss of $82.00 dollars, so use those $2500 dollar to plan to purchase VDU.TO and VFV.TO.

Because I do believe that SPX will continue to go down, so I will purchase 30 shares of VDU.TO and 15 shares of VFV.TO. I like to reseave $1000 dollars to cash when SPX reaches 2000.

Purchase:

VDU.TO   $26.70, 40 shares
VFV.TO    $58.03, 10 shares

SPX index

My rebalance history

I only need to purchase VDU.TO today, since I already did two more purchases of VFV.TO when price went down last 30 days.

Here is my rebalance history. I like to sell more bonds with minimum loss, and then I can purchase equity.

Buy high when SPX 3300 

I have to push myself to learn more before I invest all my cash into TFSA. I have to time the market when bear market is almost in the bottom. But in February 2020, I made mistakes to put $13000 Canadian dollars into the equity.

My research is so limited, I did not ask myself why Warren Buffet holds so many cash, and his warning about bear market is coming, 50% loss of equity.

Now the above $13,000 dollars of VDU.TO and VFV.TO has more than -30% market change.

VFV.TO 83 shares at price $78.99 Feb. 6, 2020. Compared to current price, the price is $58.03 on March 23, 2020.

The market change of the above VFV.TO is ($1822.68), percent profit/ loss 27.80%.

VDU.TO 179 share at price $36.87. Compared to today's price, the price is $26.70. The market change is ($1804.32), 27.339%.

Case study: system design twitter

March 22, 2020

Introduction

It is the best mock interview I have so far as an interviewer. The interviewee performed so well, so that I felt that I was sitting in the classroom and have a class about how to design of twitter. After the mock interview, he told me that he was preparing for Facebook and Google onsite. Definitely it is a good showcase how good the top performer can do this day, March 22, 2020.

Case study

I will go over the notes later and add more detail.

Here is the link.


Drawing of system design

My notes taken in the mock interview as an interviewer

I also learned from the interviewer, and what I did is to take notes every step, and I felt that I was sitting in the classroom and the interviewee gave me a teaching class.

股災來臨時的應變，談資產的配置！

Here is the video I spent 27 minutes to study.

《20万美金投资挑战》第9期：美股暴跌！四次熔断！是否买入游轮公司？

Here is the link.

本期视频回答股友们比较集中的问题：现在这个情况下应该买入游轮公司的股票吗？游轮公司哪家强？！以及股友互动环节 Q&A

Actionable Items

I do think that it is not a good idea to invest on individual stock. Diversification is much better compared to individual stocks.

However, if Air Canada stock goes down below $3.00 dollars, then it may be time to invest and then purchase 1000 share.

Boeing is in crisis, the dusk of American manufacturing is comming!

Here is the link.

Case study: System design twitter

March 22, 2020

Introduction

I like to write down a short case study about twitter system design.

Dr. Oz on coronavirus: 'More than a million Americans' could die

Here is the link.

I like the talk, and I think that Dr. Oz shared some good ideas how not to wear face mask, and it is not helpful to test body temperature.

Market is trading on fear and emotion: BMO strategist

Here is the link.



Alli McCartney of UBS Wealth Management and Brian Belski of BMO join "Squawk Alley" to discuss the markets amid a sharp sell-off. Stocks plummeted once again on Thursday after President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve both failed to quell concerns over the economic slowdown stemming from the coronavirus, leading to a historic drop for the U.S. markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2,352.60 points lower, or 9.99%, at 21,200.62. The index had its worst drop since the 1987 “Black Monday” market crash, when it collapsed by more than 22%.The S&P 500 plummeted 9.5% to 2,480.64, joining the Dow in a bear market. The S&P 500 also had its worst day since 1987. The Nasdaq Composite closed 9.4% lower at 7,201.80. “The coronavirus is scary and people don’t know what to expect,” said Kathy Entwistle, senior vice president of wealth management at UBS. “It’s like the tsunami is coming. We know it’s going to hit any day and nobody knows what the outcome is going to be.” The major averages got a brief respite during the trading day after the Fed announced it will ramp up its overnight funding operations to more than $500 billion on Thursday. It will then offer more repo operations totaling $1 trillion on Friday. The Fed also expanded the types of securities it would purchase with reserves. However, stocks quickly traded back towards their session lows as investors awaited more aggressive measures to support the economy and target the virus outbreak directly. “These changes are being made to address highly unusual disruptions in Treasury financing markets associated with the coronavirus outbreak,” said the statement from the New York Federal Reserve, which conducts these operations on behalf of the Fed.

Feeding fears -

Perspective, poise, process

Perspective - this should pass - news, headline, feeding on fears

What is the best company in the world?
Best company for sure, best corporate debt related to GDP.

You need to have some liquidity.

Long term perspective, ...

How do you know that it is time to buy in?
Faith comes in - BMO capital markets - Brian belski

Nightly News Full Broadcast (March 21st)

Here is the link.

Jim Cramer: We're the most oversold we've ever been

Here is the link.

10 reasons US stock market crash in March over 30%

Mach 21, 2020

Introduction

It is best time to learn what causes market crash in March 2020. I like to find 10 reasons US stock market crash in March over 30%

10 reasons

I like to write down 10 reasons based on my study last few weeks.

Stock Market Crash 2020: Your Chance to Make Millions

Here is the article.

3 Bad Investing Habits to Avoid | Phil Town

Here is the link.

Many investors have bad habits that keep them from becoming as wealthy as they could be. A lot of times, people aren’t even aware of their own bad habits. If you want to be the best investor you can be then watch out for these investing mistakes. http://bit.ly/2IWg0jE

1. Buy stock holding 10 years, not 10 minutes
2. Reading - it is research
3. Understand the business 

4 things to check 

1. Understand business
2. Competition advantage 
3. Good management 
4. Margin of safety

You're not keeping up on current events

Wait patiently those companies on sales.

Raise Cash

Here is the link.

The markets will fluctuate said J.P. Morgan. We will add they can fluctuate dramatically and quickly. We are now living that reality daily. The longest bull market in U.S. history, which began in March of 2009 saw stocks reach new highs in February only to plummet this month at historic speeds and magnitudes. The bull market officially ended on March 11th and the bear market began with a 20% plus decline in major markets from their previous highs. Since then the bear market has been deepening. The longest economic recovery in U.S. history is also at risk. What seemed highly unlikely to most economists just a few weeks ago, namely a U.S. recession is now becoming a consensus view. All it would take is two consecutive quarters of contracting growth and it looks like the second and third quarters of 2020 will qualify. Wall Street’s number one economist and WEALTHTRACK guest Ed Hyman issued his U.S. recession forecast on March 7th citing the triple whammies of oil price collapse, coronavirus economic impacts, and China-related supply chain disruptions.

Meanwhile, the bond markets are setting their own records. Yields on U.S. Treasury securities the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury bond have both been reaching historic lows. When bond prices rise yields fall so Treasuries have once again proven to be safe havens as well as excellent investments in the face of stock market declines. None of this is a surprise to this week’s guest who has been warning of economic and stock market risks for years on WEALTHTRACK and the value of owning U.S. Treasury securities and cash. He is Robert Kessler, founder, and CEO of Kessler Investment Advisors, a manager of fixed-income portfolios with a specialty in U.S. Treasuries for institutions and high net worth individuals around the globe. When Kessler was on WEALTHTRACK a year ago he warned there was a recession dead ahead. He said it’s all about debt.


Facts:

Banks own the debts

2008 corporate no debt -

2020 corporate - huge debt, trillion dollar debt - 

Renew - trillions coming due - 2 percent, no more 2 percent, it will be 11% - the corporate will be out-of-business

Lower rates -> fiscal help -> express ...

Shallow recession -> deep recession -> 

Good days -> market can go down -> raise cash -> feels good, sleep good in the night. 

2008, 2009 ->  his number one investment 
Guaranteed piece of paper

It'll get worse before it gets better: Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders

Here is the link.

Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, joins "Closing Bell" to the impact of the coronavirus on markets.

We're in the 'value zone': Guggenheim CIO

Here is the link.

With CNBC's Brian Sullivan talks to Guggenheim's Scot Minerd about his portfolio and what he's watching in the markets.

How tough it is to learn how to invest compared to algorithm practice?

March 21, 2020

Introduction

I definitely learn something from my behavior from May 2019 to March 21 2020. I know that it is so hard to combat my own emotions, judgement, impulsive behavior like to monkey around my portfolio. I like to talk about how to discipline myself.

Learn how to discipline myself

I have to figure out how to discipline myself. Now it is time for me to learn since market will continue to crash a few more times until it reaches low.

I have to discipline myself, instead of reading market change in one day with more than $4000 dollars in my TFSA account, I should learn what sector has change, how much those sectors change instead.

I should discipline myself and continue to learn more about USA economy.

Investing Insights: How to Invest in Times of Volatility, and Opportunities in the Markets

Here is the link.

Undervalue sector breakdown:

55% below intrinsic value - energy sector - should I look into more on this?

Just hang tight - 20:49/ 26:08 - 26:00/ 26:08

Just a good advice. Take asset allocation. Later you will be regretted.

The risk is to monkey around in volatility time, opportunity time to make it conservative by mistakes.

Sit tight for equity intensive portfolio. Even add more equity.

Time to take two weeks vacation

March 21, 2020

Introduction

It is my tenth year on my current job. This June 15 2020 is the day I work on MP lighting 10th year. I have three more months to go. I like to take two weeks vacation starting from March 23, and I like to focus on my corona virus concern and also stock market crashes as well.

Two weeks vacation

I have to complete all my vacation first in order to consider other alternatives.

How to be a smart investor?

March 21, 2020

Introduction

It is learning process to be an investor. Am I smart this year in first three months of 2020? Of course not, I was greedy not to sell the profit in February, and also I did not time the market, continued to sell $10,000 US dollars in lowest market to get Canadian dollars, and then put in market highest point in Feb. 6, 2020.

How to be a smart investor?

Here are highlights:

1. Doing good research about bull market, do not be greedy in bull market;
2. Be a good person in your community; adjust my focus on health and other important things in life first;
3. Do not be panic, understand emotions when market swings and circuit break, bond market swings also;
4. Short term pain and market swing is not risk; take it easy;
5. Be honest and learn; Share my sufferings in my market value, share my experience;
6. It is hard to be investor, when I have to experience job loss, all kinds of challenges together; 
7. Sort the priority; working hard is most important, learn more before investing in the dips;
8. Rebalance and asset allocation is important and I have to continue to learn;
9. Make friends, do not make new enemies.
10. Understand that it is best time to take two weeks vacation in market crashes.
11. Go back to learn from bible teaching

Pandemic | 4 Things People of God Should Know (Live Church)

Here is the link.

Live church sermon produced by 3ABN with Pastor John Lomacang. Listen carefully as Pastor John shares four things the people of God should do to sustain their spiritual growth and restore hope in the midst of a global pandemic.

Three more states join California in telling nonessential workers to stay home

Here is the article. 

As thousands more Americans get tested, the number of reported coronavirus cases has climbed to more than 18,000. At least 242 people in the US have died.

Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, told CNN's Wolf Blitzer that between 9 and 11% of Americans who have been tested get a positive result. That would mean at least 180,000 people in the United States have been tested. There also are samples that are part of a backlog of tests that need to be examined this weekend, she said.

Should I Be Worried? - Matthew 6:25-34 - Skip Heitzig

Here is the link.

Many people are living in fear and panic, and public anxiety is increasing day by day. As Christians, instead of letting panic rule our lives, we must give ourselves to prayer and praise, being vigilant, careful, and loving. This is possible because we have access to God's power. In this message, Skip Heitzig shares how you can turn your worry into worship and your fears into faith. This teaching is from our series of Topical Teachings with Skip Heitzig from Calvary Church.

Obsess with the future:
predict market change in the future
Do not worry about tomorrow.

Backup plan

Seek the kingdom of God first; Do not be slave of ...
Seek the lord.
Stay business about praying.

Pray during this time. Bless people.
Check in other.
Pray for people.
Offer the help.

Social distance - not spiritual distance - convert your fear to faith - heavy world ->

Daily bread - temptation to worry

Dialog together.

This is going to be the... deepest... recession: Great Hill Capital

Here is the link.

El-Erian on coronavirus: This is a significant economic shock... we are in a global recession

Here is the link.

Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian says, "We are in a global recession" as the coronavirus continues to spread across the world and supply and demand chains are eliminated, He joins Yahoo Finance’s On The Move panel to discuss.

Wall Street rocked in historic week of losses

March 20, 2020

Here is the link.

SPX - 32% loss record high
Dow over 10% loss in 3 out of 4 weeks
Dow drops 4000+ this week , 17% loss this week.

Contraction - how deep how long it will be.

Airlines loss 35% this week

Is Canada doing enough amid the COVID-19 pandemic? (Marketplace)

Here is the link.

Dow drops nearly 3,000 points, as coronavirus collapse continues; worse day since '87

Here is the article.

The S&P 500 dropped 12% to 2,386.13  - hitting its lowest level since December 2018 - while the Nasdaq Composite closed 12.3% lower at 6,904.56 in its worst day ever.

These 64 stocks in the S&P 500 fell at least 20% on Monday as the coronavirus panic intensified

Here is the article.

U.S. stocks suffered their worst session of the coronavirus crisis Monday, with scores of companies posting double-digit percentage declines.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average US:DJIA fell 2,997 points, or 12.9%, to close at 20,188.52. It was the Dow’s third consecutive session ending with an increase or decrease of 9% or more — the longest such streak since October 1929. It was also the Dow’s second-worst day ever,after Black Monday, Oct. 19, 1987.

The Federal Open Market Committee on Sunday cut the federal funds target rate by 1% to a range of zero to 0.25%, jumping ahead of its regularly scheduled meeting that was set to begin Tuesday but was canceled.

The S&P 500 Index US:SPX tumbled 12%, with 491 stocks showing declines. This was the third-worst day ever for benchmark index, after Oct. 28, 1929 and Oct. 19, 1987.

Here’s a breakdown of the day’s 356 double-digit declines among components of the S&P 500:

DECLINE RANGE ON MARCH 16	NUMBER OF S&P 500 STOCKS
10% or more	356
15% or more	189
20% or more	64
25% or more	16
30% or more	3
Source: FactSet

狂泻4000点！美股创金融危机以来最大周跌幅(图)

Here is the article.


SPX -14.98%


本周，道指跌超 4000 点，跌幅达 17.3%，纳指跌 12.64%，标普 500 指数本周跌 14.98%。三大股指均创下 2008 年金融危机以来最大单周跌幅。

3 月 3 日，美联储盘中宣布降息 50bp，这是自 2008 年以来首次非常规降息，向市场传递一个消息：闸门打开了！

400 亿美元

紧接着 3 月 12 号美联储公布将展开逆回购操作，补充短期流动性。本期操作时间从当天开始到 4 月 13 日截止，下一期购买计划将在 4 月 13 日公布。

根据纽约联储网站发布的回购时间表，未来一个月几乎每天都会向市场注入流动性，据 Wind 数据统计，总规模达 5.5 万亿美元。但是需要注意的是，这些资金全是短期资金，周期从 2 周到 3 个月不等。

3 月 16 日，再次突发降息 100bp，至此联邦基准利率降至 0%~0.25% 区间，未来基本降无可降。同时宣布 7000 亿美元 QE，新一轮措施包括买入 5000 亿美元国库券以及 2000 亿美元按揭证券，首批购入额为 400 亿美元。

美股熔断，利率归零，2020金融危机全网最详细解读【李自然说】

Here is the link.

Study US economy

March 20, 2020

Introduction

It is tough for me to learn economy and basics in my 53 years old age. I am a happy stock owner and learn how to respect market and learn to be a long term investor. I like to learn something from Chinese video. Here is one of them.

Case study: Search in rotated sorted array

It is so surprising for me to learn good performance from a software engineer in Seattle. I had onsite interview on this algorithm in 2019 but I failed to write a correct solution, since my code has a few flaws, missing edge case etc.

Here is the code the interviewee wrote.

Interviewer feedback

Interviewee feedback

Case study: completeness of a binary tree

Here is the gist of code.

What happened last 4 years in USA?

Here is the video I like to watch. The title is called "难道特朗普是经济奇才？他做了什么把美股推上绝路的！"

Cut tax - do not manufacture more products. Instead, purchase back stocks.

Loan ...

About USA stocks - How to analyze market crash in March 2020?

如果美股崩了会发生什么？
Here is the link.

This is the most important level for S&P 500, chart watcher says

Here is the article.

If markets cannot hold above the 2,351 level and instead break and hold below. It may go down to 1,829 since early 2016. A drop in total will be 46% from records set a month ago.

Scott Minerd: We're in the 'value zone'

Here is the link.

1928 -86.2%
1973  -48.2%
2000  -49.1%
2008  -56.8%
2020  -30%

What I learn from market swings from January to March 2020?

March 19, 2020

Introduction

I am a Christian and I like to review what I learn from market crash in March 2020. As an investor, a baby investor starting again from May 2019, age 53, I went through so many emotions, and asked so many questions to myself, and I learned so many things about business, how to understand the business work, and discipline myself.

January 2020

I did not care about Chinese and corona virus at all. So I only spent a few times to talk to my young sister, less than 8 hours, but I could not anticipate that the virus is so easy to spread to the whole world. I should start to cut hours on business research, and learn basics of virus and people's health in January 2020.

Being a Christian, I understand that once I stop attending churches, somehow I was over confident and then went too far. I should understand that most of important is to care about myself health, others, relatives and others in the community.

I was so happy about market change from Nov. 2019 to early February 2020. I checked my five investment accounts, this was the first time I saw that I could invest VFV.TO $10,000 book value, and I was so glad to see the value went up 30%. I could not remember how many times I checked that unrealized gain.

I should spend some time to care about community, people in China. Specially they went through Chinese new year and virus was a very big issue.

I should understand that market change like 30% on SPX is not normal, and then I should understand how risky it was to stay highest after 10 year bull market.

February 2020

It is important to learn to control myself. No matter how big the market swing, I should not let it affect my emotion. I need to focus on my own life, health, exercise, and work, and practice of algorithm and data structure.

March 2020

I understand that it is so challenge for me to pay attention to allergy season, do not cough and having sneeze in this corona virus special, and also keep myself going as a software programmer. I do believe that it is better for me to learn how to invest, it takes so much time to learn, but it is better to compare to other risky investment, like a condo in British Columbia. It will take more time for me to manage a real estate property.

Right now, it is perfect position since market value is down 30%. I am going back to humble and learn more about business, see how each of them recover one by one. People are working hard, and make good things happen in the world.

White House responds to Bill Ackman's comments that the govt. must do more

Here is the link.

The White House responds to Pershing Square's Bill Ackman and his comments that the government needs to do more to combat the coronavirus crisis. With CNBC's Brian Sullivan and Fast Money trader Dan Nathan.

White House responds to Bill Ackman's comments that the govt. must do more

Here is the link.

Bill Ackman's plea to President Donald Trump to save U.S. from coronavirus' economic destruction

Here is the link.

Pershing Square Capital CEO Bill Ackman makes a plea to President Trump to shut the U.S. economy down.

There will be bounce back in second quarter despite coronavirus: Strategist

Here is the link.

CNBC's "Power Lunch" team discusses markets amid the coronavirus outbreak with Art Hogan of National Securities and Eric Marshall, Hodges Fund.

Be humble - Do not react market change!

March 17, 2020

Introduction

It is tough for me to learn as a passive investor. I have over $100,000 on my investment account, and then I saw so many opportunities for me to make money, in reality, now my market value is down over $13,000 dollars. I plan to buy high and sell low, cut loss today, and then I learned from my friend's advice, after two hour and twenty minutes conversation, I change my mind to stay put, continue to rebalance.

Case study

I like to make money in long term. Best choice is to time the market pefectly, so I should sell everything when SPX is 3300 to make 10% profit, and then get back in market today when SPX is around 2500, over 30% loss compared to highest position 3300.

I need to do a simple checking on my TFSA. Here is the snapshot:

I like to keep VDU.TO, VFV.TO, VAB.TO as a balance portfolio, 40% VAB.TO, 30% VDU.TO, 30% VFV.TO. Right now, VDU.TO is more than $2000 less compared to VFV.TO position.

Think about in other way, VDU.TO's price is $27.74, which has to go up 27% to price $25.37.

27% usually takes more than 10 years if interest rate is 1%.

Two hour twenty minutes phone call

March 17, 2020

Introduction

It is important for me to work on decision making process. I took a sick day to stay at home, recover from my hay fever, and also I like to take some time to talk to my friend before I cut loss 25% of equity. We had two hour twenty minutes talk, after that, I decided to stay on the course, just discipline myself.

Two hour twenty minutes conversation

I have problems as an investor in the stock market, I have to learn to be patient and take one thing a time.

My idea is to sell 25% equity and then use those cash to hedge against my left 25% equity.

My friend asked me if I like to buy low and sell high, and lock in those losses. I told him that it will go down more, and then I can purchase more equity at that time.

Change from balanced to low risk

March 16, 2020

Introduction

It is not easy for me to stay humble, not over-confident on my investment strategy. I got contacted by my friend on March 10, 2020, I was over confident and I did not expect that things can get so serious related to corona virus. I need to make change and stay on the course, but reduce the risk.

Asset allocation

It is so important for me to apply asset allocation instead of timing the market. But after carefully consideration, it is better for me to save some cash in my investment account, and I like to use those cash to hedge against equity asset instead.

Here is March 16, 2020 S & P 500 index:

If  I stay humble, and do not be too greedy, then I will not invest another $13,000 Canada dollars on TFSA in February, 2020. Instead I should show concern about Chinese in China, and learn how to prevent Corona virus spread instead of focusing on SPX return for another year, another 30%.

If I am humble, then when my friend Pamela contacted me on March 10, 2020, I will carefully consider her suggestion, and then adjust my asset allocation, reduce equity from 50% to 25%, with total investment amount over $100,000 dollars.

Now I like to take loss, and sell 25% of equities, and then use those cash to hedge against equity. I do believe that SPX will continue to go down at least 500 points to meet 2000, or 2009 level.

Par 401 K - March 16 2020

March 16, 2020

Introduction

It is another big loss day. I like to document my loss and think about make some corrections based on the market and corona virus situation.

Case study

Here is the summary on March 16, 2020.

Actionable Items

I like to take loss as is. And then I will sell 50% into cash, and use it hedge against equity fund. I like to spend more time on other things in my life, and learn more about how to prevent corona virus spread instead.

How To Protect And Capitalize During Volatile Markets

Here is the article.

Victoria portfolio - March 16 2020 biggest down swing

March 16, 2020

Introduction

It is so hard to take time to learn how to invest, but I actually like to write topics related to Corona virus and how Canadian should work hard to learn how to prevent spread of virus instead. It is a big loss day, and I like to document the loss and consider carefully to time the market first time.

Case study

The economy is not in good shape, and I read some twitter about Chinese virus. I think that it is so hard for so many people to make a living in this economy hardship.

Actionable Items

It is time for me to consider taking half loss around $4600 dollars. I plan to sell half of VAB.TO, VDU.TO and VFV.TO, and then use those cash to hedge against the equity asset. I do believe that it is possible SPX will go down 2000, or lower as 1400 in 2009.

I also consider that VAB.TO is very volatile, and I like to use cash to hedge against VFV.TO and VDU.TO instead.

Follow up 

April 4, 2020
SPX

Key largo portfolio - March 16 2020

March 16, 2020

Introduction

It is tough decision to work on my own retirement portfolio. Considering the chaos of the whole world, I like to review my portfolio one day loss more than 7% again. I will carefully consider the situation of Chorona virus, and then reduce time to work on my investment.

Case study

Actionable items

I like to time the market, and take the loss of $1000 dollars on this key largo portfolio. I will sell half of BND, VEU, VOO, and put $8800 dollars into cash. And I will work on portfolio with VEU, VOO amount $5000 dollars in the equity, and use cash to hedge against the swings of the market.

After two days weekend study, I think that SPX may drop to 2000 or below the level of 2009. As long as I have cash reserved, I will continue to learn how to be a passive investor and enjoy the journey.

One of arguments is that bond BND is also volatile, and it is hard to take a 5% loss of BND and then hedge against 10% of VOO. It does not make sense.

Victoria portfolio - TFSA

March 15, 2020

Introduction

It is important for me to learn as a passive investor. I like not to time the market and then make sure that I also do not take too risk to buy equities in dips. I like to rebalance when SPX goes down another 20% instead of 10%.

Case study

I like to concentrate my full time work, and let the market swing as big as it can. I have 50% bonds right now, it is definitely important for me to rebalance, so that I can buy low and sell high as a long term investor. I should enjoy the market swing, and work hard to live a frugal life style.

I like to work on more on frugal study, and it is also good time for me to learn how to stay calm, and focus on long term.

My goal is to own my shares of those ETFs. Ignore the market value, focus on short term, how to rebalance and then own more shares. When the market goes up, of course the market value with go up with more shares.

How to Invest in a Bear Market -- Thoughts From David Gardner

Here is the link.

TD Ameritrade.com - balance history

March 15, 2020

Introduction

It is important for me to get the up and downs from my Key Largo balance history, so I can make decision and learn the market swing better.  I try to think about what if I am the product manager of Ameritrade.com and how to make the history feature better for customers.

Balance history

I learn the lesson that I should not time the market. I have to learn buy low and sell high, and also invest in long term, and also do not time the market. 

ETF Edge, March 9, 2020

Here is the link.

TD Ameritrade history & statements - My key largo crashes

March 15, 2020

Introduction

It is time for me to look into what Ameritrade can provide for me to do analysis in this market crash last 30 days.

History & statements 

I did not rebalance in January, but I did not evaluate and see if I should sell everything. I got 9% market change .

Buy low and sell high

I have to review my transaction and make sure that I do not time the market, and buy low and sell high.

SIX ESSENTIAL INVESTING TIPS FOR NON-INVESTORS

Here is the article.

a unique solution—‘risk parity’—for achieving a stable return amidst economic turbulence.

1. There is no free lunch
2. The more the promised return the higher the risk
3. Buy indexes, not individual securities
4. Don't try to master the market
5. Diversification is a big deal
6. Be disciplined 

Your strategy should be consistent and unaffected by short-term swings, whether positive or negative. 

Specific risk - buy an index rather than individual stocks

Beta investing - passive iinvesting

Diversification:

as many asset classes as possible in your portfolio. 

Be disciplined

Rudyard Kipling 

Poem "If"

"meet with Triumph and Disaster / and treat those two imposters just the same."

DR 164: Risk Parity Portfolio Construction with Dar Sandler

Here is the link.

In his book, Money–Master the Game: 7 Simple Steps to Financial Freedom, Tony Robbins describes what he calls an All Weather Portfolio. It’s very heavy in bonds, commodities, and gold, which makes it a questionable approach to investing. Yet it’s loosely based on an investing approach called risk parity that’s used by Ray Dalio of ...

Understand market crash as a passive investor

, March 15, 2020

Introduction

It is important for me to learn something as a passive investor. One idea is to read more articles written in Chinese.

Here is the article.

从2月20日至3月12日，美股累计跌幅约20%，进入技术性熊市。一切始于两周前，美股遭遇史诗级单周暴跌，跌幅超10%，波动率一度逼近50。

在突发事件导致市场急转直下的情况下，华尔街最受欢迎的趋势跟踪策略往往导致基金亏损加剧，但也有多策略对冲基金逆势跑赢。

Look into Winton fund, Renaissance Technologies 

美股已经有泡沫化迹象
美股已经在周期末端，本身也有修正的需要
ETF等被动性投资不断扩容，2004年时ETF规模约338亿美元，而2018年扩16倍
被动型ETF做的并不是价格发现，市场暴跌时存在助跌作用

Who are those sellers?

1. 那些投机者
2. CTA（趋势型商品交易顾问策略）、风险平价策略（risk parity）, 交易的抛售阀门
3. ETF等被动投资也会遭遇赎回、加剧抛售
4. 一些中长线的投资者（如养老金、捐赠基金、社保基金等）
5. 调整投资组合，调仓出于其对经济前景转差的预期

第一波抛售的很可能是那些投机者；随着跌势扩大，抛售力量转换到CTA（趋势型商品交易顾问策略）、风险平价策略（risk parity），这些交易的抛售阀门被陆续触发；随后，ETF等被动投资也会遭遇赎回、加剧抛售；最后，一些中长线的投资者（如养老金、捐赠基金、社保基金等）也会开始调整投资组合，调仓出于其对经济前景转差的预期。

What is CTA fund?

CTA策略追逐短期趋势，当市场的广泛下跌行情形成下降趋势时，CTA基金将随行就市，启动强制抛售模式，加剧市场抛压。高盛早在2018年就测算，CTA基金持有约700亿美元美股多仓，在全球股市持有约1900亿美元多仓。此次遭遇冲击的部分明星对冲基金也是使用类似趋势追踪的策略。

巴菲特连续减仓透露什么信号？十年牛市后开始恐高，进行获利了结

Here is the article.

2019-08-06 01:20

值得注意的是，在投资者遭遇暴跌寻觅市场方向之际，巴菲特的最新操作动向透露了一个不应忽视的信号：伯克希尔连续两个季度净卖出所持有的股票资产，二季度净卖出额创下了2017年底以来的新纪录。有观点认为，这可能是持续了十年的美股牛市“见顶”的征兆。

“虽然美联储降息预期兑现，但由于市场已经提前有所反应，美股上周反而是表现最差的一周。”杨德龙向记者指出，后市可能出现高位震荡的走势，“由于整体估值偏高，美股高位回落的风险现在变得比较大。巴菲特连续两个季度的减仓，实际上也是觉得估值过高了。”

连续两季度净卖出，巴菲特高位减仓

经过长达十年的上涨，美股估值水平已处于历史高位。杨德龙指出，道琼斯工业指数估值水平已超过26倍市盈率，这使得一些价值投资者开始减缓对于美股市场上股票的购买。