Wednesday, June 19, 2024

华尔街:标普500指数年底前能涨至6000点

 今年,在人工智能(AI)热潮的助推下,标准普尔500指数屡创新高,华尔街大佬们喊出的目标价也是一个比一个高。

继瑞银喊出5600点的高目标价后,华尔街大空头、Evercore ISI首席股票和量化策略师Julian Emanuel将其对标普500指数的年终预测上调到了6000点。这是媒体追踪的主要股票策略师中最高的,比标普500指数上周五收盘点位高出约10.5%。

Emanuel也曾是华尔街最著名的看跌者之一,他此前预计该指数今年将收于4750点。不过他如今预测,到2024年底,标普500指数将再次出现两位数的上涨。

投资者对经济弹性、企业盈利改善以及美联储紧缩周期结束的乐观情绪,推动了标准普尔500指数今年上涨逾14%。Emanuel表示,通胀消退和对人工智能的热情将进一步推高股市。

纵观华尔街,他的最新预测高于高盛集团的科斯汀(David Kostin)、瑞银集团的戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)和BMO Capital Markets的Brian Belski预计的5,600点。目前,摩根大通似乎成了华尔街唯一的“熊”,该行给出的目标价为4,200点,这意味着该指数将较上周五收盘水平下跌逾20%。

Emanuel上周日在给客户的一份报告中写道:“疫情改变了一切。创纪录的刺激措施、较高的现金余额和较低的杠杆率支撑着消费者。然后是人工智能。如今,GenAI(生成式人工智能)在每个工作岗位和行业的潜力都在发生变化。

“通胀放缓、美联储有意降息和经济增长的背景支持了‘金发姑娘’情境。”他补充说。“金发姑娘”经济通常指的是高增长和低通胀同时并存的经济体。

Emanuel还将他对标普500指数2024年和2025年每股收益的预期分别上调至238美元和251美元,预计同比增长8%和5%。

他还称,假设标准普尔500指数在12月底前跃升至6,000点,每股收益为238美元,该指数的市盈率将增至25倍,但仍低于互联网泡沫高峰时期的28倍。他补充说,标准普尔500指数的市盈率可能会在“较长时期内”保持在高位。

他还认为到2025年底,标普500指数有可能涨至7000点

 

通货膨胀冲击下的美国餐饮业:从客流下降到破产潮的真相

 著名风险投资人凯文·奥利里 (Kevin O'Leary)表示,从Red Lobster宣布破产到Applebee今年关闭数十家门店,自新冠疫情爆发以来,美国大型连锁餐厅正受到通货膨胀和客流量下降的困扰。凯文·奥利里解释了为什么美国各地的餐馆纷纷关门,以及为什么会有更多餐馆效仿。

他在《每日邮报》的专栏中写道:“美国餐饮业发现自己上了菜单。”

“似乎每天,都会有新闻头条宣布破产、裁员或关闭商店,影响到这个国家最受欢迎的品牌之一。”

食品价格上涨,客流量下降

奥利里说,许多餐馆还没有真正从疫情的影响中恢复过来——首先,顾客已经更加习惯直接订餐送货上门。

他说,随着向远程工作或混合工作方式的转变,人们不再经常与同事一起吃午餐。

“这对投资实体店的企业来说是毁灭性的打击,”奥利里写道,“城市地区的餐馆受到的打击尤其严重,因为他们昂贵的店面不再吸引足够的客流量来支付租金。”

他说,疫情造成的供应链问题加剧了食品价格上涨。根据美国农业部(USDA)的数据,从2019年到2023年,全食品消费者价格指数飙升了25%——高于住房和医疗保健等其他主要类别。美国农业部表示,供应链问题导致2020-2021年食品价格上涨,而禽流感疫情和乌克兰冲突导致2022年价格上涨。

奥利里补充道,通货膨胀导致许多消费者勒紧裤腰带,减少可自由支配的开支。

奥利里写道:“在当今经济形势下,‘高档麦当劳’是许多人买不起的奢侈品。”

他们有什么选择?

奥利里指出,虽然一些餐馆不得不缩减规模甚至宣布破产,但其他餐馆则转移到成本更低的地方或转变为只专注于外卖的商业厨房。

星巴克和麦当劳等其他连锁店目前也向顾客提供5美元套餐,以吸引消费者。

不过,财务顾问表示,减少支出可能是一件好事——至少对于控制预算和做出更明智的支出选择的美国人来说是这样。

德克萨斯州Watchman Group的注册理财规划师兼助理财富经理安德鲁·赫尔佐格(Andrew Herzog)表示:“美国人需要在困难时期重新调整现金流的优先顺序。”

“麦当劳和星巴克将会生存下来。”

 

Risk-reward ratio | SABR stock | May - June 2024


20% down, at position price $3/ share, $0.10 up, $3.11, ratio is 5 : 1. Need to reposition all those capitals. 

Need to learn to set trailing stop 5% all the time. 


Tradingview.com | BEST Trailing Take Profit Strategy

14 risk and money management Rules – TradingView.com

#RiskManagement #MoneyManagement #TradingRules #14Rules #tradingViewRules #Lessons #FollowRules 

14 risk and money management Rules – TradingView.com

Here is the article. 

1. The 2% Rule – Limit Your Risk 

2. The Probability Rule – Assess Trades 

3. 20% Drawdown Rule – Pause After Losses 

4. Never Risk Unaffordable Money 

5. The Time Stop-Loss Rule – Time-Based Limits 

6. The Trailing 1:1 Rule – Protect Profits 

7. Half Off Rule – Secure Gains 

8. The 5% Margin Rule – Control Leverage 

9. The Intraday Stop Rule – Daily Loss Limit 

10. Forex NEWS Rule – Avoid High-Impact News Events 

11. The Risk-Reward Rule – Favor Positive Ratios 

12. The 20% Golden Rule – Diversify and Limit Exposure 

13. The Hedgehog Rule – Balance Long and Short Positions 

14. Multi-Account Rule – Separate Markets


  1. The 2% Rule – Limit Your Risk 
  2. The Probability Rule – Assess Trades 
  3. 20% Drawdown Rule – Pause After Losses 
  4. Never Risk Unaffordable Money 
  5. The Time Stop-Loss Rule – Time-Based Limits 
  6. The Trailing 1:1 Rule – Protect Profits 
  7. Half Off Rule – Secure Gains 
  8. The 5% Margin Rule – Control Leverage 
  9. The Intraday Stop Rule – Daily Loss Limit 
  10. Forex NEWS Rule – Avoid High-Impact News Events 
  11. The Risk-Reward Rule – Favor Positive Ratios 
  12. The 20% Golden Rule – Diversify and Limit Exposure 
  13. The Hedgehog Rule – Balance Long and Short Positions 
  14. Multi-Account Rule – Separate Markets



Monika Saksena | The Top 50 Women Leaders of New Jersey for 2022

Here is the article.  

Director of Global Partnerships & Tools, Google

Monika Saksena is the Director of Partnerships Tools at Google, leading product, engineering and solution delivery functions to provide leading technology solutions to the Global Partnerships organization. With over 20 years of experience across technology and field leadership roles, Monika specializes in ratcheting businesses to the next level through process reimagination and technology innovation.

With an authentic and energetic leadership style, Monika holds a strong bias for action and outsized impact. She is passionate about diversity in the workforce. Before joining Google, she led the Corporate Card Business for US West and South at American Express. She has also held IT leadership positions at Microsoft and Hewlett-Packard. Saksena graduated from St. Stephens College, Delhi University, with an undergraduate degree in chemistry and holds a master’s degree in computer science from Florida Atlantic University.

Edmonton | # 204 10745 78 Avenue Edmonton, AB T6E 1P7 $134,900 | Built 1978

 Status:

Active
Property Type:Lowrise Apartment
MLS® #:E4378655
Sq. Feet:664
On Site:88 Days
Monthly Assoc. Fee:$438
Welcome to Queen Alexandra! * Sun-filled, South facing 1 bed / 1 bath * 660 ft. open floor plan with balcony * Undermount SS kitchen sink * Laminate floors * In Suite storage with shelving * Additional storage throughout * Bedroom fits king size bed * His and her bedroom closets * Common laundry same floor * Assigned parking stall * Condo fees include: heat, water/ sewer * Appliances great shape * 6 minute bike ride to U of A * City transportation * LETS TALK LOCATION! Out the front door is a beautiful boulevard with mature trees and quiet neighbourhood. Just a hop, skip and a jump to the famous Whyte Ave. A few more blocks North you hit the River Valley. Have it all here within walking distance to Whyte Avenue! Groceries, restaurants, pubs, coffee, clothing, salons, unique shopping, summer festivals, Old Strathcona, farmers market, thrift shops, Blues on Whyte, art walk, and night life! **Some images have been virtually staged to better showcase the true potential of rooms and spaces in the home.** ...Less

COMMUNITY INFORMATION

Address:# 204 10745 78 Avenue, Edmonton, AB T6E 1P7
Postal Code:T6E 1P7
Zone:Zone 15
Condo Development:Willis Manor

ARCHITECTURE

Bedrooms:1
Bathrooms:1
Year Built:1978
Stories:3
Style:Single Level Apartment
Roof:Tar & Gravel
Foundation:Concrete Perimeter
Basement:No Basement
Parking Features:Stall

FEATURES / AMENITIES

Appliances:Dishwasher-Built-In, Garburator, Refrigerator, Stove-Electric
Flooring:Laminate Flooring, Linoleum
Other Rooms:Storage Room
Exterior Features:Back Lane, Playground Nearby, Public Transportation, Schools, Shopping Nearby
Direction Faces:North
Amenities / Features:Closet Organizers, Deck, Intercom, Parking-Plug-Ins, Parking-Visitor, Security Door, Storage-In-Suite
Heating:Baseboard, Hot Water, Natural Gas

PROPERTY FEATURES

Lot Features:Back Lane, Playground Nearby, Public Transportation, Schools, Shopping Nearby
Unit Exposure:South

TAX AND FINANCIAL INFO

Condo Fee:$437.78 (paid Monthly)
Condo Fee Includes:Exterior Maintenance, Heat, Insur. for Common Areas, Landscape/Snow Removal, Parking, Professional Management, Reserve Fund Contribution, Utilities Common Areas, Water/Sewer
Restrictions:Pets Subject to Board App

Edmonton | # 108 10735 81 Avenue, Edmonton, AB T6E 1Y2 | U of A | $119,000

 Status:

Active
Property Type:Lowrise Apartment
MLS® #:E4393355
Sq. Feet:743
On Site:1 Day
Lot Size:650 Sq. Ft.
Monthly Assoc. Fee:$412
Great One bedroom apartment close by U of A and just off Whyte so that means an epic location where you can walk to many awesome cafes, restaurants, bars with tons of other great stores near by, all in easy walking distance including the university.
It is certainly the place to be. Located on a quiet one way street with bike lane on one side and parking on the other. 

This home would suit a first time home buyer looking to get in the market and with a price so attractive so it even appeals to an investor as well as parents whose children study at U of A. 

The home has a very spacious layout and bedroom is very generous size with large closets which is always nice. Kitchen, dining and living room are at one end of the unit while the bedroom and bathroom are at the other. Laundry is not in suite but close by the unit and there is a parking stall at the rear. Condo fee includes heat, and water so your utility bill will be low.

COMMUNITY INFORMATION

Address:# 108 10735 81 Avenue, Edmonton, AB T6E 1Y2
Postal Code:T6E 1Y2
Zone:Zone 15
Condo Development:Alture

ARCHITECTURE

Bedrooms:1
Bathrooms:1
Year Built:1970
Stories:4
Style:Single Level Apartment
Roof:Asphalt Shingles
Foundation:Concrete Perimeter
Basement:No Basement
Parking Features:Stall
Parking Total:1

FEATURES / AMENITIES

Appliances:Dishwasher-Built-In, Microwave Hood Fan, Refrigerator, Stove-Electric
Flooring:Laminate Flooring
Other Rooms:Storage Room
Exterior Features:Playground Nearby, Public Swimming Pool, Public Transportation, Schools, Shopping Nearby
Direction Faces:West
Amenities / Features:Intercom, Security Door
Heating:Baseboard, Natural Gas

PROPERTY FEATURES

Lot Size:0.01 Acres / 650 Sq. Ft.
Lot Dimensions:60.42 Square Metres
Lot Features:Playground Nearby, Public Swimming Pool, Public Transportation, Schools, Shopping Nearby
Unit Exposure:West

TAX AND FINANCIAL INFO

Condo Fee:$412.50 (paid Monthly)
Condo Fee Includes:Exterior Maintenance, Heat, Insur. for Common Areas, Janitorial Common Areas, Landscape/Snow Removal, Parking, Professional Management, Reserve Fund Contribution, Water/Sewer
Restrictions:Board Approval

Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Tradingview.com | How to Use Multi-Timeframe Analysis and What It Means

Here is the article. 

In this video tutorial, our team based out of New York City walks you through multi-timeframe analysis including what it means and how it works. Multi-timeframe analysis (MTF) is a process in which traders can view multiple timeframes at once on a single chart. For example, if you're looking at a 30-minute chart you can quickly add a daily Moving Average and weekly Bollinger Bands. Multi-timeframe analysis is the process of looking at multiple timeframes at once and using them to make better decisions when trading or investing.

Getting started with multi-timeframe analysis on TradingView is easy:

Step 1 - Add an indicator to your chart
Step 2 - Open the indicator's settings and find the Resolution parameter in Inputs
Step 3 - Adjust the resolution to the timeframe of your liking

This process works for most of the built-in indicators on TradingView. You can have several timeframes visible at once so you always know the most important price levels. MTF works by the minute, hour, day, week and month.

In addition, Pine coders can use the same `resolution` parameter we use in our built-in indicators in their own scripts. By simply adding it to a script’s `study` declaration statement, coders now have an easy way to add MTF functionality to scripts and let users decide the timeframe they want the indicator to run on.

We hope you enjoy this video tutorial and please press like if you find it helpful. If you're already an expert at multi-timeframe analysis, please leave some tips and educational lessons in the comments so others can learn from you.

Tradingview.com | Multiple Time Frame Analysis

 

Multiple Time Frame Analysis

Multiple Time Frame Analysis is the technique of analyzing several time frames of the same asset before entering a trade. This type of analysis is best done using a top-down approach, i.e. starting at a higher time frame and working your way down, via several lower time frames, until the execution time frame is reached where a trade could be entered. Traders who use this technique usually look at 3 or 4 different time frames to identify the general trend and find the best entries. They minimize their risk and improve the odds of success simply by taking the bigger picture into account. It can easily be combined with any trading strategy.

Time frames are usually several times apart. For example a day trader who trades hourly charts, could analyse the weekly (high time frame), the daily (7 times smaller), the 4 hour (6 times smaller) and finally the hourly time frame (execution time frame, 4 times smaller). TradingView has a chart layout feature with multiple charts per layout, so you can analyse an asset on multiple time frames under one tab in your browser.

Tradingview.com | A Quick Guide to Multi-Timeframe Scaling

Here is the article. 




Tradingview.com | the science behind timeframes + correct timeframe sequencing

Here is the article. 

timeframes are the unit of time in which trading activity/session takes place.

timeframes are an essential tool to traders/investors because there is a direct association between the right trading style and timeframe of choice for each individual trader depending on what works or does not for them.

timeframes are often structured in forms of minutes, hours, days, weeks and months and in some cases seconds.

there are 4 main trading style : scalping, day trading, swing/position trading, this might not be the topic of discussion but like i earlier mentioned there is a mutual correlation between trading style and timeframe.

1.SCALPERS(scalping) - these type of traders capitalize of small market movements by buying/selling in large volumes, holding those positions for a short period on time. the ideal timeframes for scalpers is 1minute to 15minutes.

2.INTRA DAY - these traders have a short-term approach to the market, buying/selling financial assets not more than 24hours/within a full trading day. their ideal timeframes are 4 hours down to 15 minutes timeframes.

3.SWING/POSITION - these traders capitalize on long-term price movements and macro trends holding positions from a couple days to a few months. their ideal timeframe range from 4hours to monthly timeframe

it also important to note that the timeframe a traders depends on how efficiently they work and other factors like, patience levels, discipline, risk management strategy and lifestyle.

MULTIPLE TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS

most traders use this science behind timeframes also called "top-down analysis" to gain a broad understanding when studying price charts.

this involves using several different time periods at the same time to form a bias when analyzing charts. similar to taking a big complex task and cutting it into smaller simpler activities still without losing sight of the bigger task.

large timeframe(complex) -> small timeframe(simple) = trade bias.

to use multiple timeframe analysis you need 3 different timeframes with the next timeframe being 4/3 times smaller than the one before it.

the first timeframe is the trend timeframe is used to identify the long term trend, the second timeframe is used to identify significant price levels, identify market structure, chart patterns and the last timeframe is the entry timeframe


scalping sequence = 15MINUTE -> 5MINUTE -> 1MINUTE
intraday sequence = 4HRS -> 1HRS -> 15MINUTE
swing/position sequence = 4HRS -> DAILY -> WEEKLY + MONTHLY.

i hope this information helps/improves your trading in a positive way.

Tradingview.com | How to use different timeframes

Here is the article. 

Today I'll talk about choosing the right timeframe and how you can use different timeframes when looking for trades. This will help us uncover what is hidden in this candle on the chart.


When we look at something, we are usually limited by a certain viewpoint. From this point, we only see part of the whole picture. But if we move and look from a different perspective, we will discover new details and aspects that were previously unnoticed. The same applies to analyzing the chart of a financial instrument when using different types of charts or different timeframes. This post will focus on using different timeframes. On one timeframe, it may be difficult to understand the essence of what is happening, while on another, everything can become clearer and more understandable.


I've already talked about using different timeframes when looking for trades in an educational article a few weeks ago (see the related post below). In that article, I highlighted 5 skills that help effectively trade in sideways markets. Discussing the first of them - how to combine higher and lower timeframes when looking for trades, I provided a practical example on the OPUSDT chart using the daily and hourly timeframes. In that practical example, I formulated target levels that are likely to be reached. You can see the results in the related post (see below).

I'll provide another example of choosing the right timeframe and the correlation between timeframes, using the BTCUSDT chart. This will help us uncover what is hidden in this candle on the chart.
In the update of this idea

I noted that on the hourly timeframe at the contextual point of the seller (the beginning of the last seller impulse, level 66867), I didn't see an active seller and wasn't ready to join the sales at that moment. As a potential target, I indicated 62776.


So, I looked at the chart on different timeframes and searched for what remains unnoticed. On the 7-minute timeframe, I discovered a sideways movement at the contextual point of the seller (level 66867), as mentioned in the idea update with a recommendation to look for a trade after exiting the sideways movement and protecting this exit:

ow, let's analyze what happened next (on the bars chart, as bars take up less space and additional marks are better visible).
The seller broke through the lower boundary of the sideways movement at 65626.87.

The seller's impulse ended at 10:49 (New York time), when after breaking through the lower boundary of the sideways movement, the first buyer bar appeared.

The key candle(bar) of the impulse (the largest volume in the impulse) is marked on the chart as "KC". Therefore, the seller's defense of this candle or the lower boundary of the sideways movement (65626) increases the probability of further price decrease. The price range of the key candle of the impulse is highlighted on the chart (from high to close). Now let's pick a lower timeframe to see more clearly what happened before and after 10:49.

On the 1-minute timeframe by 10:49, a sideways movement formed, and at 10:49, the price attacked the upper boundary of the sideways movement (level at point 2).

The key candle of the buyer's impulse ("KC" on the chart) is in the middle of the impulse. At 10:59, the buyer attacked a new boundary of the sideways movement (level at point 6 - 65249.01). Pay attention to the volume of the attacking candle. At 11:02, the seller pressed the attack candle, forming a seller zone (red background on the chart). On the buyer's candle at 11:04 (black downward arrow on the chart), you can sell because:

  1. On the hourly timeframe, the price is in the seller's impulse in the seller's area of interest, which defended the level 66867.
  2. On the 7-minute timeframe, the seller broke through the lower boundary of the sideways movement.
  3. On the 1-minute timeframe, the seller defended the level (65249.01) from the buyer's attack on a significant volume, which is within the price range of the key candle of the 7-minute timeframe impulse.
And one more interesting point. Look where the seller's resumption on the minute timeframe came from - from the 50% of the key candle of the 7-minute timeframe seller impulse.


Tradingview.com | The Most Recommended Timeframes to Trade On

Here is the article. 

Hello traders. Here I would like to take my take on the best timeframes (personally) that I use to trade on. This can apply to all tradable assets - especially for cryptocurrencies.

Weekly Timeframe (1W): Usually one-week traders are known as longterm traders. Usually they are good at analyzing the market from a longer perspective and will usually have a portfolio that is heavily catered towards fundamentals, rather than technicals. They will hold trades from lasting from a week up to even months - and possibly up to years. The advantages to a weekly trader will be that you don't have to always watch the trade; however, it will take longer to realize profits - and that's okay by them. Many new traders tend to avoid this approach because it means longer periods of time before trades are realized. However, by many accounts, trading with a shorter-term (day trading) approach can be far more problematic to execute successfully, and it often takes traders considerably longer to develop their strategy.

One-day Timeframe (1D): These are also known as swing traders. These traders hold positions from days, up to weeks. The advantages for swing traders is that they are usually more geared towards longer term profits and is comfortable with holding a trade overnight. After the trend has been determined on the weekly chart (lower highs and lower lows, for example), traders can look to enter positions on the weekly chart in a variety of ways. Many traders look to utilize price action for determining the overall trend, but indicators can absolutely be utilized here as well.

1H - 4H Timeframes (1H, 4H): These traders are usually known as 'hybrid' intra-day, day, and even swing traders. These two timeframes are usually the best to use indicators as the provide quick data and more data to help learn the process of the larger scale timeframes. These two timeframes are the epitome of creating the larger picture. These traders usually understands the concept of how markets open and closes from a day-to-day perspective. They understand the exposures of 'fake-out' signals. These traders will usually realize profits or losses quickly. After a trader has gained comfort on the longer-term chart, they can then look to move slightly shorter in their approach and desired holding times. This can introduce more variability into the trader’s approach, so risk and money management should be addressed before moving down to shorter time frames.

The best time frame to trade an asset will vary depending on the trading strategy you employ to meet your specific goals. The diagram above shows the time frames used by different traders for trend identification and trade entries.


Tradingview.com | What Time-Frame Should You Trade?