Book reading | 《蹚浑水的理由》

 https://new-read.readmoo.com/mooreader/210287305000101/preview

推荐序 面对万物的不确定，我们需要理性决策 

国立台湾师范大学管理研究所教授兼管理学院院长/沈永正 

膛浑水的理由？ 当我刚接受大是文化的邀请，为本书撰写序文 的时候，书名就引起了我的好奇。 是什么浑水？ 为什么要讨论要不 要膛浑水？ 

当我接着读下去后才了解，这是一本谈决策的书。 

讲得再清楚一点，这是一本谈理性决策的书。 

决策行为在许多学术领域，都是核心研究议题，包括经济学、心理学、作业研究（Operation Research）等。 其中基本的研究动机，是希望了解人在决策时的机制以及偏误，并设计出让人们能做 出更佳决策的辅助机制。 

在行为决策的研究中，通常重视两个影响决策质量与结果的变数，一个是外在的决策环境，另一个是决策者内在的特质。 例如， 在一项投资决策中，影响决策质量及结果的因素，包括投资标的增 值潜力的不确定性、金融环境的风险与不确定性、投资者本身的情 绪变动，以及投资者的人格特质，对于风险的承受能力等，这些都 是影响投资结果的变量。 

在这些变量中，投资标的与金融环境的风险和不确定性，属于外在的因素; 而投资者本身的人格特质、情绪，以及风险承受力， 则属于内在环境的因素。 透过这些因素彼此间复杂的互动关系，便决定了投资决策的品质，以及投资决策的结果。 

白宫、华尔街的关键决策，淬炼成鲁宾宝贵的经验 

在这本罗伯特。 鲁宾（Robert Rubin）的回忆录中，他以自己多年来的工作与生活经验，提出理性决策的原则。 鲁宾曾任高盛投 资银行（Goldman Sachs）的董事长，并在比尔。 克林顿（Bill 的不确定 ...

 

对我来说

Clinton）政府时期担任美国财政部长。 本书是他长期在重要职务 上做出关键决策的过往，集结而成的宝贵经验谈。

 

本书主题聚焦在如何做出理性的决策、增进决策过程的质量 小以及决策结果的效益。 使用本书架构而言，可以用上一段所区分 。 策外在环境与内在环境作为主题的纲领。

 

, 的決

 

一开始，鲁宾就强调决策环境的不确定性，以及风险对于决策可能产生的影响，也提到个人情绪在面临重大决策时会如何影响局 面，并造成偏误，由此导出—————纪律在理性决策中的重要性。 鲁宾强调在面临重大决策时，深思熟虑所有可能的结果与风险发生的机率，才能做出好的决策。

 

以上所述的内容，是针对决策的外在环境，讨论理性决策的重 要性，以及做理性决策时需要考虑的外在环境挑战，与需要克服的困难。

 

接着，鲁宾讨论了管理者的人格特质对决策以及组织效能的影 响。 成功的管理与成功的人生，除了运气很重要之外，永不放弃的金 努力、清晰的头脑与判断力、求知若渴的态度、忠于自我、培养沟通的能力，都是管理者作出成功决策必要的条件。 面对万物的不确定，“我...

 

在管理者的人格特质方面，则需要去除意识形态标签、接纳和帮自己不同的意见，并在适当的时机做出适当的妥协，这些都是内在推 推荐序

 

决策环境对理性决策的影响。

 

在讨论理性决策时，鲁宾也强调目标导向决策的重要性。 唯有时时检视目前的行动与最终目标间的关系，才能专注于集中资源以达成目标。 此外，鲁宾也强调分辨决策过程与结果的不同。 决策的 训练重点，在于增进决策过程的质量; 而对于决策的结果而言，因为牵涉到许多外在环境的不确定性及风险，很难保证好的决策过程一定会导致好的结果。 理性决策的关键，在于理性的决策过程。 长 期而言，理性的决策过程，也将能提升决策的整体品质。

 

如上所述，理性的决策同时受到外在与内在决策环境的影响， 而鲁宾提出的原则，则能增进决策的整体质量。

 

理性决策的价值——————全人类的命运，都仰赖于此

Robert E. Mnuchin

 Robert E. Mnuchin (born 1933) is an American art dealer and former banker. After a 33-year career with Goldman Sachs, he retired to fund the Mnuchin Gallery in New York City.

As an art dealer, Mnuchin is particularly known for his long association with Dutch-American abstract painter Willem de Kooning.^[1][2] In 2019, he set a record for the most money paid for a work by a living artist by bidding $80 million for Jeff Koons' Rabbit.^[1]

Mnuchin is the father of Steven Mnuchin, who was the United States Secretary of the Treasury in the Trump administration.^[1]

前高盛董事长鲁宾回忆录：投资时的悬崖勒马 没人知道真正的谷底是哪里 《蹚浑水的理由》书摘精选

Here is the article.

2023.09.21  

08:59  

工商時報

 

当考量自己的个人投资组合时，我也试着严谨的分析风险。 首先，我认为没有人擅长在短期内持续预测市场行为（除了少数专业交易人），因此企图这么做实乃不智之举。 有件事让我很火大，就是看着折扣经纪商对消费者打广告，暗示他们有能够打败市场的分析系统。 但事实与广告刚好相反：世上没有「华尔街的秘诀」，只有知识与纪律。 假如有人真的知道这种秘诀，他们绝对不会公诸于世。

 

当我评估潜在个人投资时（比起个股，我通常宁可投资有人管理的基金），我总会试着判断几年后，而非短短几季之后，会发生什么事。 假如我认为市场过于低估了迫在眉睫的风险（例如定价没有考虑重大的地缘政治冲突，或通货膨胀飙升），我就会稍微调整自己暴露于市场的程度，不会参与这些短期市场时机。

我也明白，无论我对短期或长期的判断为何，都很难断定这些判断到最后是否正确。 我在评估别人的预测时也是一样的道理，当人们向我表达对市场的判断时，我总是会问他们：「这个判断的不确定性有多高？」

我预测的不确定性，形式可能有很多种。

第一，我可能误判负面结果发生的机率。 特别是，我可能错误的假设未来必然会跟过去一样──这是投资人常犯的错误，尤其在情势相对稳定，或是长期以来都很正向的时候。 最终，当投资人意识到世界其实已经改变，或许是经济条件转变，或单纯因为市场做得太过火。 等到那时候，通常都为时已晚，市场早已崩溃了。

第二，我可能正确预测了事件发生的机率，却错估后果的严重性。

第三，我可能正确预测了各种机率和严重性，但很倒霉，低机率的事件发生了。

我无法估计这些不确定性。 我能做的，就是把它们列入考虑。 假如我认为有10%的机率会赔掉一大笔钱，那么我就会将它纳入平均考量，并取得适合的期望值，接着我会说：「是啊，但你知道吗？ 我很有可能是错的，而且不是小错，而是大错。」因此，我会更加节制自己原本打算的做法。

我对于不确定性与风险的看法，会影响我在整体投资组合中愿意承受的β估计值（β值是指市场绩效与投资组合绩效的相关性，比方说，假设市场跌了1美元，β值是0.7，那你就会赔70美分;假如你的β值是0.6，那就会赔60美分，依此类推）。 我不只认清自己有赔钱的机率，也认清自己对机率与其严重性的判断，有可能是不正确的。

因此，虽然我仍然以「α值」为目标（用来衡量投资在风险调整后，绩效比市场好多少），但我的β值比其他类似的投资人还低一些。 这并非因为我是风险趋避者（虽然某种程度上我是），而是因为我认为结果的不确定性比大多数投资人承认的还大，虽然不确定性是把双面刃，我仍希望能限制负面的效应。

我也试着去考虑，每档投资（无论股票、不动产、基金或其他任何东西）不只有下行风险，也有真正的尾部风险。 有些人投资绩优股，是因为他们假设这些公司的股价虽然会下跌，却不至于会急遽恶化到完全倒闭。 平心而论，发生这种事的机率真的很低，但不是零。 例如很多人投资奇异电气（General Electric Company），因为它曾被视为美国最顶尖的公司之一，结果却眼睁睁看着奇异近年来稳定衰退。

有个普遍的看法是，所有风险（包括尾部风险）都可以藉由多角化策略来减轻。 多角化确实有帮助，例如当我做了20档投资，其中只有1档的绩效较差，那应该没什么大不了的。 但假如股市大盘暴跌，且没有快速回涨，那么就连多角化策略也顶不住。 而且，横跨资产类别的多角化也可能衰退。 在极为紧张的市场中，就算你横跨的资产类别之间看似毫不相关（像是股票、债券、商品与不动产等），但实际上也可能有关，因为同一时间，所有人都在退场。

另一个普遍的看法是，投资人在市场强势成长的时期，必须意识到尾部风险，但在市场大幅下行时买进的，几乎都是大好机会。 某次我跟自己参与的组织开会，讨论该怎么投资它的资金时，就有人提到这个看法。 我们当时正在讨论，假如大盘暴跌，组织该怎么反应？ 「如果市场真的大幅衰退，那么我们的形势就很有利，」负责人说道，他是一位非常能干且经验丰富的资产经理：「我们有现金可以利用这个优势，所以我们应该买进。」

那个组织的委员会中，大多数人都觉得这个做法很好，但我打了个岔。 我告訴這些受托人，我以前的合夥人鮑伯. 马努金（Bob Mnuchin）曾说：「逢低卖出的人可不是笨蛋。」他的意思是，没人可以猜到谷底在哪里，或回涨需要多少时间。 严重的市场衰退之所以会发生，通常都有真正的理由。 市场总是有可能变得更糟，并且停留在低点很久。

没错，回顾第二次世界大战后的每个市场周期期间，假如你在严重衰退时买进，总是会得到好结果，因为市场每次都会回涨。 所以你可以说，只要我所在的组织从事的是长期投资，那应该要买进没错。 但支持买进的人，都忽略了一个风险。 过去总是奏效的策略，不代表它以后也会奏效。 或许市场不回涨的时刻会到来，或者市场仍会反弹，但花的时间远比以前还多。

1989年末，日本的股票指数「日经」接近39,000点，但接着就崩盘了，三十多年过去后，它距离完全恢复还有很长一段路要走。 至于美国在下次严重的市场衰退后，是否会发生类似的事情？ 我们没有根据能够完全排除这个可能性──尽管可能性极低。

我的重点不是这个组织（或其他人）是否应该在下行期间买进。 我的重点是，市场恢复时间极长，或完全不恢复的机率总是大于零。 这个信息应该能让我们知道，我们对市场的暴露程度要增加多少。

正因为認清了鮑伯. 马努金的重点所在，我才知道我做个人投资时该采取什么方法。 假如股价在市场下行时大跌，我会将现金投资在我认为长期期望值极高的地方。 但比起大多数财务状况与我相同的人，我非常谨慎，也非常保守。 换言之，我会放弃一些潜在好处，以避免在衰退恶化并长期持续时（虽然从历史的标准来看，十分不可能），蒙受更大的损失。

这也导致我的个人投资策略与许多同侪相比，有个截然不同的地方：即使市场处于好的时机，我资产中的现金百分比还是稍微高了一点，假如市场表现好的话，虽然我不会大赚，但也不可能大赔。 严格来说，当通货膨胀率够高，而且持续得够久时，现金就会大幅贬值，但损失并没有通货膨胀加上市场大衰退来得严重。

换言之，我付出了机会成本，以减少可能局面下的损失，无论严重负面结果的发生机率有多么微小。 我不知道我在长期的绩效会更好或更坏，但这种方式让我觉得更安心。 对我来说，减少风险所带来的利益远大于其成本。

这并不表示我的方法是唯一的正确方法。 企业界与金融界有许多著名人士（我非常尊敬他们的判断和经验），可能会主张增加我这种投资组合的市场暴露程度，并建议在大幅下行时更积极的增加。 他们会观察上一世纪的市场模式，并承认这些模式可能没有预言性（尽管这样的机率微小，却不是零），但还是愿意承担这个风险。

客观来说，两种策略没有高下之分，而且两个决策都不一定正确。 我们对于风险的容忍度可能不同，或者做判断时，在风险程度或不确定程度上有歧见。 但这都不表示我们其中一人是对的，而另一个人是错的。 事实上，我们或许都尽可能做了最佳的选择，即使我们的结论不同; 前提是，我们都了解风险的机率，并且带着严谨的纪律应用这项知识。

也能这么说，理性决策可能不只一种，前提是你采取理性的方式决策。 反之，如果没有采取理性的方式，随着时间经过，就可能导致更不好的结果。 无论你的投资额是小是大，也无论你投资的是股票、债券或其他资产，只要将风险内化成一个范围，并以严谨的纪律分析风险与报酬。 最终做出明智选择，并且随着时间正面发展的机率，就会被提升至最大。

适用于个人投资的做法，也同样适用于组织和国家。 将风险内化成一个范围，不仅对个人至关重要，对公司与政策制定者也很重要。

 

Tech | AMD launches AI chip to rival Nvidia’s Blackwell

 Published Thu, Oct 10 20241:05 PM EDTUpdated 57 Min Ago

Kif Leswing

Key Points

• AMD launched a new artificial-intelligence chip on Thursday that is taking direct aim at Nvidia’s data center graphics processors, known as GPUs.
• The Instinct MI325X’s rollout will pit it against Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell chips, which will start shipping in significant quantities early next year.
• If AMD’s AI chips are seen by developers and cloud giants as a close substitute for Nvidia’s products, it could put pricing pressure on Nvidia.

• AMD launched a new artificial intelligence chip on Thursday that is taking direct aim at Nvidia’s data center graphics processors, known as GPUs.

  The Instinct MI325X, as the chip is called, will start production before the end of 2024, AMD said Thursday during an event announcing the new product. If AMD’s AI chips are seen by developers and cloud giants as a close substitute for Nvidia’s products, it could put pricing pressure on Nvidia, which has enjoyed roughly 75% gross margins while its GPUs have been in high demand over the past year.

  Advanced generative AI such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT requires massive data centers full of GPUs in order to do the necessary processing, which has created demand for more companies to provide AI chips.

  In the past few years, Nvidia has dominated the majority of the data center GPU market, but AMD is historically in second place. Now, AMD is aiming to take share from its Silicon Valley rival or at least to capture a big chunk of the market, which it says will be worth $500 billion by 2028.

  “AI demand has actually continued to take off and actually exceed expectations. It’s clear that the rate of investment is continuing to grow everywhere,” AMD CEO Lisa Su said at the event.

  AMD didn’t reveal new major cloud or internet customers for its Instinct GPUs at the event, but the company has previously disclosed that both Meta and Microsoft buy its AI GPUs and that OpenAI uses them for some applications. The company also did not disclose pricing for the Instinct MI325X, which is typically sold as part of a complete server.

  With the launch of the MI325X, AMD is accelerating its product schedule to release new chips on an annual schedule to better compete with Nvidia and take advantage of the boom in AI chips. The new AI chip is the successor to the MI300X, which started shipping late last year. AMD’s 2025 chip will be called MI350, and its 2026 chip will be called MI400, the company said.

  The MI325X’s rollout will pit it against Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell chips, which Nvidia has said will start shipping in significant quantities early next year.

  A successful launch for AMD’s newest data center GPU could draw interest from investors that are looking for additional companies that are in line to benefit from the AI boom. AMD is only up 20% so far in 2024 while Nvidia’s stock has risen over 175%. Most industry estimates say Nvidia has more than 90% of the market for data center AI chips.

  AMD’s stock fell 4% on Thursday. Nvidia shares were up about 1%.

  AMD’s biggest obstacle in taking market share is that its rival’s chips use their own programming language, CUDA, which has become standard among AI developers. That essentially locks developers into Nvidia’s ecosystem.

  In response, AMD this week said that it has been improving its competing software, called ROCm, so that AI developers can easily switch more of their AI models over to AMD’s chips, which it calls accelerators.

  AMD has framed its AI accelerators as more competitive for use cases where AI models are creating content or making predictions rather than when an AI model is processing terabytes of data to improve. That’s partially due to the advanced memory AMD is using on its chip, it said, which allows it to serve Meta’s Llama AI model faster than some Nvidia chips.

  “What you see is that MI325 platform delivers up to 40% more inference performance than the H200 on Llama 3.1,” said Su, referring to Meta’s large language AI model.

  Taking on Intel, too

  While AI accelerators and GPUs have become the most intensely watched part of the semiconductor industry, AMD’s core business has been central processors, or CPUs, that lay at the heart of nearly every server in the world.

  AMD’s data center sales during the June quarter more than doubled in the past year to $2.8 billion, with AI chips accounting for only about $1 billion, the company said in July.

  AMD takes about 34% of total dollars spent on data center CPUs, the company said. That’s still less than Intel, which remains the boss of the market with its Xeon line of chips. AMD is aiming to change that with a new line of CPUs, called EPYC 5th Gen, that it also announced Thursday.

  Those chips come in a number of different configurations ranging from a low-cost and low-power 8-core chip that costs $527 to 192-core, 500-watt processors intended for supercomputers that cost $14,813 per chip.

  The new CPUs are particularly good for feeding data into AI workloads, AMD said. Nearly all GPUs require a CPU on the same system in order to boot up the computer.

  “Today’s AI is really about CPU capability, and you see that in data analytics and a lot of those types of applications,” Su said.

10x Genomics Crashes After 'Disruptive' Reorg Upsets Third-Quarter Sales

 10x Genomics (TXG) stock crashed Thursday after the medtech reported preliminary third-quarter sales that widely missed Street expectations, thanks to a highly "disruptive" reorganization

The company is a leader in spatial biology, a process that involves understanding where specific cells and tissues are within a sample. But the company is undergoing numerous commercial changes, and third-quarter sales of $151.7 million came in well below forecasts for $162.2 million to $162.4 million, William Blair analyst Matt Larew said in a report.

Management attributed the miss in part to recent commercial changes. In the Americas, where sales fell 11% year over year, 40% of accounts got a new owner during the quarter, he said. The commercial changes have been more disruptive than the company previously expected.

"This is unsurprising to us — as we wrote last quarter, our perspective on commercial leadership and strategy changes for growth companies is that they can be quite challenging and disruptive (10x's recent history supports that)," Larew said.

In morning action, 10x Genomics stock tumbled more than 25% to 15.52. That hit a record low.

10x Genomics Stock: Instrument Sales Dive

10x sells systems capable of performing spatial biology reads called instruments and one-time use consumables to perform each test.

During the quarter, revenue from instruments plunged 46% to $19.1 million. That widely missed Larew's estimate for $27.1 million. Chromium, 10x's oldest system, brought in $7.6 million. Its spatial instruments generated $11.4 million.

"10x's Chromium business was likely significantly impacted by the modifications to the company's commercial organization, as this segment is far more established than the spatial business," Canaccord Genuity analyst Kyle Mikson said in a client note. "We believe it could take time for 10x to properly orient its Chromium commercial efforts."

He has a buy rating on 10x Genomics stock, but cut his price target to 20 from 32.

'Modest Rebound' In 2025?

Consumables revenue tumbled 10% to $126.2 million, while William Blair's Larew earlier forecast $129.9 million. That consisted of $96.5 million from Chromium tools and $29.7 million from its spatial consumables.

Services revenue climbed 48% to $6.4 million.

Larew noted customers are likely acting cautiously amid the reorganization. Still, he kept his market perform rating on 10x Genomics stock.

Mikson, the Canaccord analyst, trimmed his expectations for 2024 and now expects sales to come in at $616.2 million, which would be flat year over year. Previously, he forecast $640.4 million vs. the company's guidance for $640 million to $660 million.

"We assume a modest rebound in 2025, resulting in revenue of $687 million vs. our prior estimate of $720 million and consensus of $716.3 million," he said.

Boeing potentially the largest fallen angel, JPM says

 Investing.com -- Boeing (NYSE:BA) could soon “become the largest fallen angel on record,” with $52 billion of index-eligible debt, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) strategists said in a note.

The aerospace giant’s credit rating is under pressure after S&P placed it on CreditWatch Negative, while Moody’s and Fitch maintain similar negative outlooks.

For Boeing to officially drop from investment grade (IG) to high yield (HY), at least two of the three agencies would need to downgrade the company. Should this happen, Boeing’s fall would surpass even Ford’s $51 billion downgrade in 2020, making it the largest in history.

JPMorgan analysts note that “this is an idiosyncratic credit situation, should a downgrade occur. No other large fallen angel has ever transitioned at such tight spreads.” Tight spreads and liquid trading conditions in both IG and HY markets could help ease the transition.

On the other hand, the size and structure of Boeing’s debt present headwinds. With $52 billion in debt, Boeing would be the largest HY issuer by far, representing 3.6% of the index—double the size of the next largest issuer.

Moreover, a significant portion of Boeing’s debt is long-term, with 45% maturing in more than 10 years, an uncommon trait for HY companies.

“This is in line with other recent large Fallen Angels like Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) on a % basis but much larger on a $ basis,” analysts noted.

“Currently, there is only $26bn of long-end HY debt outstanding across all HY issuers so BA would increase the stock of long-end HY debt nearly two fold. Given what we noted above on capital charges for insurance holders, it is unclear how much long-end debt would in fact transition,” they added.

JPMorgan also highlights the complexity of passive investment strategies in both IG and HY markets. The growing share of passive funds, particularly in IG, may lead to more forced selling if Boeing is downgraded.

Furthermore, about half of HY funds are benchmarked to indices that cap issuer exposure, meaning roughly $22 billion of Boeing’s debt could exceed these limits.

However, JPMorgan points to the current scarcity of high-quality BB-rated bonds, which could make Boeing’s debt attractive to HY investors despite the risks.

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