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怎样在市场交易中扛住压力?——读《通往成功的交易心理学》

 

怎样在市场交易中扛住压力?——读《通往成功的交易心理学》

2022-02-28 来源:上海证券报

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《通往成功的交易心理学》
  (英)史蒂夫·沃德 著
  金 鞠 译
  机械工业出版社
  2022年1月出版

◎郑渝川

从事市场交易,就不免会体察到不适感,尤其是出现这些情况时:交易亏损、持仓浮盈、市场波动性剧烈、连续出现交易亏损、持仓被套牢、踏空交易机会等。这种情况下,交易员只要继续留在市场,就只有两种选择:要么回避上述事件和场景,回避其带来的不适感,接受这种消极回避对交易业绩的影响;要么就必须培养出容忍不适感的能力,直面不适感,从而最大化地提升交易回报。

不适感无法真正清除

长期致力于为交易员、精英运动员和团队提供心理学指导,使其提高风险承受能力的金融顾问史蒂夫·沃德,在其所著的《通往成功的交易心理学》一书中指出,不适感是无法真正清除的,凡是想要清除不适感的选择,事实上只能变成回避。作者认为,要让长期交易回报最大化,就必须主动承担短期交易造成的不适感,反之就会迎来由厌恶损失、厌恶遗憾、害怕犯错、厌恶模棱两可、害怕错过和厌倦交易等认知偏差可能造成的更大问题。

要真正做到直面不适感,需要意识到不适感本身可以理解为市场对于交易员的考验。作者在书中援引生理学家的测量结果,那就是经验更丰富的交易员,在市场波动性增强的环境中,表现出了更低的压力水平。这显然是直面压力和困难而训练、铸造的。

作者在书中建议,交易员应当主动将自己暴露在不舒服的环境中来适应不适感,使得自己不再那么害怕受亏损、交易犯错、错失机会、分析失误等因素带来的影响,从而能够在决策中真正扛住压力,做出正确或不让自己后悔的选择。

学会战胜压力

本书主要从心理学视角出发,分析交易员乃至一般的投资者因为交易不可避免遭遇的压力、情绪、挑战和挫折,引导人们能够管理好这些感性问题,更好地经历情绪挑战,哪怕犯错、踏空和亏损,也不要因此失去希望,而是能够做到转危为机,从市场、他人和自身经历中学习,推动自己的交易向有利的方向转化。

纵观中国资本市场,相当数量的投资机构的业绩水平频频出现波动,这意味着第一线交易员承受着巨大压力。本书中提到的不适感,相信也在相当程度上困扰着国内各类金融机构的交易员。作者在书中融合了心理学、生物学和哲学的洞见,设法帮助交易员、投资者战胜压力,控制状态,在可控范围内迈向成功。

作者在书中指出,交易员经常要花费很多时间去思考交易、头寸、市场表现,这些思考很有必要,但有时也会导致交易员深受困扰,陷入负面想法而不能自拔。事实上,正如心理学家丹尼尔·魏格纳有关思维抑制的研究所揭示出的,如果强调“别去想那只白熊”,我们反而会高频想起,越回避,越会不由自主地想到。因此,应对负面想法:一是要洞察,也就是认识到自己的想法只是想法,不代表事实;二是要进行实用性判断,评估自己的想法在当下情境下的适用性;三是要脱钩,学会与既负面又没有好处的想法脱离;四是行动,采取坚决行动,执行自己的交易策略。

作者提醒到,哪怕是经验、阅历再丰富的交易员,也不能摆脱情绪,因此必须学会与情绪共事,觉察其存在,保持开放性,不因此阻塞对其他信息的接纳。

控制好状态

作者在书中提到了“交易绩效的生理学”,也就是说,每个人受生理特点影响,因此有时候自己的注意力、觉察水平、思考质量、体验到的情绪确实要低于往常,还有可能更加易怒。作者援引科学家的研究结论指出,当我们忙于繁琐的工作,在极度疲劳的情况下,对交易会采取一种低投入、减少深层思考、更多地依托于直觉以及思维偏见进行快速决策的做法,这时的风险感知削弱,出错的风险其实更大。而因为疲劳带来的交易失败、投资损失,会形成一种心理上的联动机制,在日后再度疲劳的情况下,会导致我们变得胆怯。

科学家另外发现,压力会诱导出过度的悲观。因为压力强度本身会导致认知能力的下降,这与交易亏损相联系,让人难以抑制非理性悲观。在这种情况下,交易员要学会依照生理学、心理学知识来管控自己的压力和疲劳水平。

在书中,作者建议投资者:一方面,要学会监控生理状态,善于对自己的不安反应作出调整,而不是像温水煮青蛙那样,等到极度不舒服时才开始调整,因为那时的心理和生理能力都极度弱化。另一方面,要学会管理生理状态,包括了解自己的疲劳状态、睡眠状况,以及量化分析自己的压力和能量水平。作者还在书中给出了相关的生理反馈技术,即使用特定技术来测量人的自主神经系统、交感神经、副交感神经的功能表现等数值,由此展开必要的状态管理。在经过一段时期的高强压力、极度疲劳的紧张交易后,交易员有必要通过生理评估,进行必要的休息,以恢复生理和心理上的平衡。

交易的核心就是要在不确定性下,做出承担风险的决策。如上所述,我们天生偏爱舒适、确定、熟悉感,希望获得掌控感,但这在复杂多变的市场中是难以实现的。由于市场周期的存在,我们必须学会去适应高潮和低谷。事实上,我们每个人的人生路途也是如此,不可能一直一帆风顺,也不会始终坎坷不断。所以,我们需要强化必要的技能,提高适应性,学会用科学、健康的方法来管控生理和心理,从而避免压力将自己摧垮。

作者认为,在通往成功的路上,交易员需要建构适应逆境、低谷的认知结构,以使得亏损等问题发生后不仅不会带来连锁反应,还会让我们通过失败经历形成自己的应对技能和策略,形成正向而非恶性的联动机制。

Congressional panel says Boeing has ‘culture of concealment’

 By  David Koenig

Published 1:29 PM PDT, March 6, 2020

A congressional committee investigating Boeing said Friday that a “culture of concealment” at the company and poor oversight by federal regulators contributed to two deadly crashes involving the grounded 737 Max.

The committee’s Democrats said multiple factors led to the crashes, but it homed in on a new flight-control system that pushed the nose of each plane down based on faulty sensor readings. Boeing Co. failed to classify the system as critical to safety, part of a strategy designed to avoid closer scrutiny by regulators as the company developed the plane, the House Transportation Committee said.

The report said Boeing had undue influence over the Federal Aviation Administration, and FAA managers rejected safety concerns raised by their own technical experts.

Staffers for the committee’s Democratic majority made the comments in a preliminary summary of the panel’s nearly yearlong investigation of Boeing’s development of the Max and the FAA’s decision to approve the plane.

The committee has held five hearings and disclosed troves of internal Boeing documents that highlighted company employees’ safety concerns about the Max. The panel’s summary did not break new ground, but it illustrated the breadth and depth of one of several investigations currently underway into Boeing.

Boeing spokesman Bryan Watt said the Chicago-based company has “cooperated extensively for the past year with the committee’s investigation” and will review the preliminary report.

The FAA said its certification procedures “are well-established and have consistently produced safe aircraft designs,” but it welcomed the scrutiny. “We are confident that our openness to observations and recommendations will further bolster aviation safety worldwide,” said FAA spokesman Lynn Lunsford.

Republicans on the Transportation Committee suggested that the report by the Democratic staff had gone too far in faulting how FAA approves new planes.

sabr stock how many cash left for cash flow

 Sabre (SABR) had a net cash from operations of -$193.45 million and free cash flow of -$271.20 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as of early 2025, indicating the company is not generating positive cash flow and is burning cash overall. The company's total cash and cash equivalents was $651.14 million as of March 31, 2025. 

Cash Flow Breakdown (TTM) 
Balance Sheet Cash (as of March 31, 2025) 
  • Cash and Cash Equivalents: $651.14 million
Key Takeaway
Sabre is currently in a negative cash flow position, meaning it is spending more cash than it is generating from its core business operations. While the company holds a significant amount of cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet, the negative free cash flow suggests a long-term concern for investors, particularly because of the company's debt obligations. 
For the most up-to-date figures, refer to the latest filings and financial data on platforms like Yahoo Finance or Stock Analysis. 

Report: Pilots restarted software, causing fatal nosedive

 By  DAVID KOENIG and TOM KRISHER

Published 1:49 PM PDT, March 9, 2020

Ethiopian investigators are mostly blaming Boeing for last year’s crash of a Ethiopian Airlines jet shortly after takeoff, saying in an interim report Monday that there were design failures in the jet and inadequate training for pilots.

The update from Ethiopian investigators — timed to beat the anniversary of the crash on March 10, 2019 — pointed to the role played by a new flight-control system that Boeing installed on the 737 Max and which repeatedly pushed the nose of the plane down.

The system, called MCAS, overwhelmed the pilots’ attempts to control the plane. When it triggered for the fourth and final time, the pilots fought back by pulling on their control columns with up to 180 pounds of force, but the nose of the plane sank even more and the jet flew even faster.

Shortly before impact, the plane was streaking downward at 575 mph — at a rate of more than 5,000 feet per minute — with its nose tilted down at a 40-degree angle, according to the interim report from Ethiopia’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau.

All 157 people on board were killed when flight 302 crashed into a field six minutes after takeoff from Addis Ababa. Every Max jet worldwide was grounded within days of the crash — the second involving a Boeing Max in less than five months.

The investigators issued several recommendations to Boeing and placed little blame on the airline or its pilots. In that regard, the Ethiopian update differed from a final report that Indonesian investigators issued after a 737 Max operated by Lion Air crashed in October 2018 and killed all 189 people on board.

Data in the Ethiopian update, however, could renew questions about the pilots’ actions – in particular, their decision to turn MCAS back on after first disabling it when the plane’s nose pitched down. One aeronautics expert said restoring power to MCAS doomed the flight.

Monday’s interim report by Ethiopia’s transport ministry was not remarkably different from a preliminary report the government issued last April. Boeing and the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration said they were reviewing the update, but both already seemed to be looking ahead to a final report that the Ethiopians are expected to issue later this year.

“We believe it’s important to have the full final report to evaluate it against other independent reports so that we might fully understand all of the factors -- both mechanical and human -- that played a role in this tragic loss of life,” the FAA said in a statement from spokesman Lynn Lunsford.

Boeing shares plummeted 13% in afternoon trading. The stock sell-off, however, may have been more closely related to the worsening coronavirus outbreak, which is undercutting demand for air travel, and a report that the Max could be grounded longer than Boeing expects while the company fixes a wiring problem with the planes.

Wiring bundles are too close together, raising the risk of short-circuiting and fire in extreme situations. Boeing has been analyzing the issue for several weeks. The Wall Street Journal reported that FAA managers and engineers have recommended requiring Boeing to move the wiring on nearly 800 Max jets, which could further delay Boeing’s schedule for returning the planes to flight later this year.

The FAA said Monday it was continuing to discuss the matter with Boeing, and that the plane will only be cleared to fly when the agency is satisfied that all safety-related issues have been fixed.

Monday’s interim report by the Ethiopian investigators added to pressure on Boeing. It came three days after a congressional report said Boeing’s development of the Max was marred by design failures and a “culture of concealment” to hide information from regulators and airlines. Democrats on the House Transportation Committee also slammed the FAA for poor oversight of Boeing. Committee leaders are vowing to propose changes in how FAA oversees aircraft manufacturers.

The Ethiopian board made six recommendations, all aimed at Boeing or the FAA, which certified the plane in 2017. Boeing is addressing some of the recommendations by changing MCAS to make it less powerful. Boeing is also endorsing the use of flight simulators to train pilots on how MCAS makes flying the Max different from previous models of the 737.

There were no recommendations for Ethiopian Airlines, which has defended the actions of its pilots. The update, however, pointed out again that pilots on flight 302 restored power to the MCAS flight-control system after initially turning it off. When they did that, the pilots couldn’t counter the downward pitch caused by the position of the stabilizer, a horizontal fin on the tail that pushes the nose up or down, because they were flying so fast, said John Hansman, an aeronautics professor at MIT.

It’s unclear why, but the pilots had left the throttles fully open after takeoff. Hansman believes the pilots might have been too busy and distracted to notice.

“They were saturated. They were dealing with so much stuff -- all those warnings,” he said. “It is hard to diagnose exactly what is happening and what the causality is while you are trying to keep the airplane under control.”

In a statement, Boeing said it continued to provide technical help to the investigators as they finish their work.

“We look forward to reviewing the full details and formal recommendations that will be included in the final report from the Ethiopian Accident Investigation Bureau,” said the statement by spokesman Gordon Johndroe.

___

Koenig reported from Dallas and Krisher from Detroit.

Crash victims’ families prepare to make what could be their final plea for Boeing’s prosecution

 BY  LISA LEFF AND RIO YAMAT

Families who lost loved ones in two crashes of Boeing 737 Max jetliners may get their last chance to demand the company face criminal prosecution Wednesday. That’s when a federal judge in Texas is set to hear arguments on a U.S. government motion to dismiss a felony charge against Boeing.

U.S. prosecutors charged Boeing with conspiracy to commit fraud in connection with the crashes that killed 346 people off the coast of Indonesia and in Ethiopia. Federal prosecutors alleged Boeing deceived government regulators about a flight-control system that was later implicated in the fatal flights, which took place less than five months apart in 2018 and 2019.

Boeing decided to plead guilty instead of going to trial, but U.S. District Chief Judge Reed O’Connor rejected the aircraft maker’s plea agreement in December. O’Connor, who also will consider whether to let prosecutors dismiss the conspiracy charge, objected to diversity, equity and inclusion policies potentially influencing the selection of an independent monitor to oversee the company’s promised reforms.

Lawyers representing relatives of some of the passengers who died cheered O’Connor’s decision, hoping it would further their goal of seeing former Boeing executives prosecuted during a public trial and more severe financial punishment for the company. Instead, the delay worked to Boeing’s favor.

The judge’s refusal to accept the agreement meant the company was free to challenge the Justice Department’s rationale for charging Boeing as a corporation. It also meant prosecutors would have to secure a new deal for a guilty plea.

Resolving ‘a difficult and complex’ case

The government and Boeing spent six months renegotiating their plea deal. During that time, President Donald Trump returned to office and ordered an end to the diversity initiatives that gave O’Connor pause.

By the time the Justice Department’s criminal fraud section briefed the judge in late May, the charge and the plea were off the table. A non-prosecution agreement the two sides struck said the government would dismiss the charge in exchange for Boeing paying or investing another $1.1 billion in fines, compensation for the crash victims’ families, and internal safety and quality measures.

The Justice Department said it offered Boeing those terms in light of “significant changes” Boeing made to its quality control and anti-fraud programs since entering into the July 2024 plea deal.

The department also said it thought that persuading a jury to punish the company with a criminal conviction would be risky, while the revised agreement ensures “meaningful accountability, delivers substantial and immediate public benefits, and brings finality to a difficult and complex case whose outcome would otherwise be uncertain.”

Judge O’Connor has invited some of the families to address the court on Wednesday. One of the people who plans to speak is Catherine Berthet, whose daughter, Camille Geoffrey, died at age 28 when a 737 Max crashed shortly after takeoff from Ethiopia’s Addis Ababa Bole International Airport.

Berthet, who lives in France, is part of a group of about 30 families who want the judge to deny the government’s request and to appoint a special prosecutor to take over the case.

“While it is no surprise that Boeing is trying to buy everyone off, the fact that the DOJ, which had a guilty plea in its hands last year, has now decided not to prosecute Boeing regardless of the judge’s decision is a denial of justice, a total disregard for the victims and, above all, a disregard for the judge,” she said in a statement.

The government says the judge can’t deny its request

Justice Department lawyers maintain the families of 110 crash victims either support a pre-trial resolution or do not oppose the non-prosecution agreement. The department’s lawyers also dispute whether O’Connor has authority to deny the motion without finding prosecutors acted in bad faith instead of the public interest.

While federal judges typically defer to the discretion of prosecutors in such situations, court approval is not automatic.

In the Boeing case, the Justice Department has asked to preserve the option of refiling the conspiracy charge if the company does not hold up its end of the deal over the next two years.

Boeing reached a settlement in 2021 that protected it from criminal prosecution, but the Justice Department determined last year that the company had violated the agreement and revived the charge.

Faulty sensor readings preceded crashes

The case revolves around a new software system Boeing developed for the Max. In the 2018 and 2019 crashes, the software pitched the nose of the plane down repeatedly based on faulty readings from a single sensor, and pilots flying then-new planes for Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines were unable to regain control.

The Transportation Department’s inspector general found that Boeing did not inform key Federal Aviation Administration personnel about changes it made to the MCAS software before regulators set pilot training requirements for the Max and certified the airliner for flight.

Acting on the incomplete information, the FAA approved minimal, computer-based training for Boeing 737 pilots, avoiding the need for flight simulators that would have made it more expensive for airlines to adopt the latest version of the jetliner.

Airlines began flying the Max in 2017. After the Ethiopia crash, the planes were grounded worldwide for 20 months while the company redesigned the software.

In the final weeks of Trump’s first term, the Justice Department charged Boeing with conspiring to defraud the U.S. government but agreed to defer prosecution and drop the charge after three years if the company paid a $2.5 billion settlement and strengthened its ethics and legal compliance programs.

The 2021 settlement agreement was on the verge of expiring when a panel covering an unused emergency exit blew off a 737 Max during an Alaska Airlines flight over Oregon at the beginning of last year. No one was seriously injured, but the potential disaster put Boeing’s safety record under renewed scrutiny.

A former Boeing test pilot remains the only individual charged with a crime in connection with the crashes. In March 2022, a federal jury acquitted him of misleading the FAA about the amount of training pilots would need to fly the Max.

Yamat is a national business reporter for The Associated Press. Based in Las Vegas, she covers airlines, travel and tourism.

Crash victims’ families prepare to make what could be their final plea for Boeing’s prosecution

Families of Boeing crash victims urge judge to reject deal sparing company from prosecution

 

Families of Boeing crash victims urge judge to reject deal sparing company from prosecution

Google赢得司法部诉讼 股价飙升创历史新高

 快科技9月3日消息,谷歌公司今晚股价盘初大涨8%,刷新历史新高,最新股价229美元,总市值达到2.77万亿美元。


消息上,美国法官裁定,谷歌无需剥离旗下Chrome浏览器,也无需分拆安卓操作系统。上述业务是谷歌的关健业务,无疑是重大利好。

此外,谷歌也未被禁止向苹果支付费用,以确保其搜索仍为苹果设备的默认选项。今后,谷歌仍可每年支付数十亿美元,换取苹果等智能设备制造商把谷歌搜索引擎设为默认搜索引擎。

此外,谷歌也未被禁止向分销合作伙伴支付费用,以预装Google Search、Chrome或其生成式AI产品。

就在刚刚,摩根大通宣布,将谷歌母公司Alphabet的目标价从232美元上调至260美元。美国银行将Alphabet目标价从217美元上调至252美元。

有意思的是,此次判决对苹果也有利,苹果依然可以每年从谷歌那里获得上百亿美元的收入,受此利好,苹果股价也涨超2%。


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