Orcl stock | The most important chart in AI today? Oracle’s default swaps blow out

The most important chart in AI today? Oracle’s default swaps blow out

Senad Karaahmetovic

Tue, November 18, 2025 at 10:22 a.m. PST 2 min read

 In this article:

ORCL
+0.29%

Investing.com -- Shares in Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) are down as much as 37% from the record high set in September as investors turned wary of its debt-financed jump into artificial-intelligence infrastructure, with bond and credit-default‐swap (CDS) markets flashing caution.

In layman’s terms, a CDS is insurance against a company going bust. When the price of that insurance jumps, investors are getting nervous.

Investors dumped Oracle bonds after a report that the company plans to add about $38 billion in debt to fund its cloud and AI build-out. The move drove weaker bond prices and higher yields, with market participants pointing to stress in a previously stable investment-grade issuer.

Traders have accelerated hedging via 5-year CDS contracts, signalling mounting concerns about credit risk in the AI arms race. Market players say the underlying catalyst is the scale and speed of AI infrastructure investment across the tech sector.

Wall Street analysts fear that borrowing to fuel the build-out may strain cash flows, delay returns and heighten credit risk even for large-cap names. A recent fund-manager survey found that over half of respondents view AI spending as the top market risk. However, not everyone is very concerned.

"Oracle is structuring AI compute contracts as non-cancelable, non-modifiable, take-or-pay contracts ensuring stable cash flows and cost visibility," BofA research analyst Brad Sills wrote in a client note last month.

For Oracle, the shift is material. The company has for decades drawn strength from its enterprise-software and database franchises. Now it is pivoting heavily into data-centres and cloud infrastructure tailored for AI workloads, financed with freshly issued debt.

"Oracle’s entry into AI compute marks its transition into a fourth hyperscaler, as accelerated capex and GPU density bring the company’s footprint inline with hyperscaler peers," Sills said.

The total addressable market (TAM) for AI infrastructure is estimated by IDC at $200 billion in annual spend by 2028; a 42% 5yr CAGR.

AMBA stock | Leaderboard spotlight | AMBA

 Updated 11/14/2025 12:31 PM ET

When many people think of artificial intelligence, they get visions of products relying on central, cloud-based servers.

But AI stock Ambarella (AMBA), which has surged from recent lows, addresses the need for empowered, localized devices.

The Santa Clara, Calif. company focuses on the so-called "edge AI" space. It designs system-on-a-chip, or SoC, semiconductors which are capable of performing complex tasks directly on devices. This is important in areas such as computer vision.

Ambarella specializes in serving the automotive, security camera and robotics spaces. Customers include the likes of Ford (F) startup Canopy, LG and Kodiak AI (KDK).

The artificial intelligence stock is a sturdy all-around performer, with its IBD Composite Rating sitting at 96 out of 99.

It also has a solid, but not ideal, Earnings Per Share Rating of 80. It has swung from losses to profit in each of the past four quarters, a positive sign.

Wall Street is looking for Ambarella to swing to a profit of 49 cents in the current fiscal year from a full-year loss of 16 cents per share last year. Earnings are then seen rising 6% in fiscal 2027, MarketSurge data shows.

One risk event to be aware of is the company's fiscal third-quarter earnings report after the close on Nov. 26. An approach highlighted by Investor's Business Daily is to use options as a strategy to reduce risk around earnings. It's a way to capitalize on the upside potential of a stock's move around earnings while reducing the downside risk.

Analysts Bullish On AI Stock

Wall Street analysts are currently bullish on the AI stock's prospects. Ambarella holds a consensus rating of strong buy with an average price target of 96.60, according to TipRanks.

Rosenblatt Senior Analyst Kevin Cassidy rates the stock as a buy with a 100 target. Cassidy said Ambarella possesses "AI product momentum" and that he's "encouraged by a strong design pipeline."

"Adoption of its 5nm SoCs in Edge AI applications is fueling year-over-year growth, supported by both higher average selling prices and increased unit shipments," he said in an Aug. 7 note to clients. "The company's new AI portfolio spans portable video devices, robotic aerial drones, and edge infrastructure."

Craig-Hallum Senior Analyst Richard Shannon is even more bullish, rating it as a buy with a 105 target.

"AMBA is a leader in the AI market, although not thought of this way by most investors, specifically within inferencing at the edge," he said in a Sept. 25 research note. "We see this as a future growth driver within the AI market, and believe AMBA's strong silicon/software platform, which has excellent power/performance characteristics, is a strong base from which to drive continued growth in current and emerging markets."

Shannon has also been impressed by the the company's strong execution across its entire business, which he thinks will continue in the future.

Ambarella Stock Analysis

Ambarella stock has tested a consolidation ideal buy point of 93.44, MarketSurge analysis shows. This is a first-stage pattern, a plus as IBD research has found such bases have a better chance of success.

While the stock has been forced back amid broader negative market action, so far it is holding above its 50-day moving average. It is also battling for its 21-day exponential moving average.

Also, although its relative strength line is currently taking a pause, it remains near recent highs amid a strong uptrend.

While the stock has fallen more than 5% below the consolidation buy point, this comes amid a broad market pullback. If the stock gets good support and can rally from here, the entry would still be in play.

The AI stock ran up as much as 149% above 2025 lows before easing back. Its gain for the year is more modest, at around 22%. Nevertheless, this is superior to the benchmark S&P 500's lift of around 15%.

Institutions have been net buyers of Ambarella stock lately, which is reflected in its Accumulation/Distribution Rating sitting at B-. In total, 53% of shares are held by funds.

Please follow Michael Larkin on X at @IBD_MLarkin for more analysis of growth stocks.

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我慌了！” Cloudflare故障引发全球互联网混乱

Cloudflare周二突发全球网络故障，导致X、ChatGPT、DoorDash、IKEA等大量网站无法访问，累计超210万用户上报异常。公司称问题源于威胁流量配置文件异常膨胀，耗时不到四小时修复后，问题已经解决。分析称，事件再次凸显全球互联网对少数基础设施厂商的高度依赖。

美东时间周二早间，互联网基础设施服务商Cloudflare表示，其全球网络正在遭遇异常，导致包括社交媒体平台X在内的大量网站出现“internal server error”等访问故障，用户无法访问许多网站和服务，包括零售、电商、社交媒体、金融服务以及交通相关平台。该公司随后声称，在耗时不到四小时后已修复问题。

宕机期间，X的部分功能中断，多家网站也陷入访问受阻。根据故障跟踪平台Downdetector的数据，除X之外，也有大量站点受到影响，相关报告数量持续攀升。用户在访问X、ChatGPT、DoorDash、IKEA，以及纽约市大都会运输署（MTA）等网站时，都看到与Cloudflare相关的错误信息。

随后，Cloudflare的一位女发言人表示，在美东时间早上6点20分左右，他们的某项服务出现了异常的流量激增，导致经过公司网络的流量出现错误。

Cloudflare另一位发言人Jackie Dutton在公告中说，这个问题是由一个用于管理威胁流量、自动生成的配置文件引起的，修复耗时不到四小时。公司表示已经部署了核心修复措施，但谨慎指出系统“仍需时间完全稳定”。

Dutton表示：

“这个文件的条目数量超过了预期大小，触发了负责处理Cloudflare部分服务流量的软件系统崩溃。”

声明称，没有证据显示此次事件与网络攻击或恶意活动有关。

故障的影响范围极为广泛。Downdetector在平台上表示，在Cloudflare宕机期间，“各类受影响服务的报告累计超过210万条”，显示此次事件已成为近年来较为严重的一次基础设施级别中断。

事故发生后，Cloudflare的股价周二开盘一度暴跌7%，随后跌幅收窄。

数字资产行业也出现反应。币安联合创始人、前CEO赵长鹏在X上发文称：“区块链依然正常运行（Blockchain kept working）”，暗示去中心化系统未受此次事件影响。

到美东时间12:15，Cloudflare表示系统正在逐步恢复，但全球部分区域仍可能出现访问错误、性能下降或登录问题。公司将在状态页面持续更新修复进度。

 对少数公司过于依赖

近年来，多次因为数字基础设施供应商出现问题，导致全球互联网使用陷入瘫痪。亚马逊云服务（AWS）、CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.和微软公司先后出现过类似事故，也突显全球互联网在很大程度上依赖于少数公司提供服务。

Cloudflare和AWS的服务对普通用户来说几乎是“隐形”的，但它们的工具支撑着消费者每天使用的大量网站和服务。

上个月AWS的宕机让互联网部分区域陷入瘫痪，导致数百万用户的网站和应用无法使用，零售销售受阻，社交媒体和金融服务中断，很多企业也受到影响。去年，网络安全公司CrowdStrike所使用的一项工具中的漏洞更是让全球的电脑系统大面积崩溃，引发数千次航班延误和取消，也让政府机构和大型企业的运营陷入混乱。

加州网络安全公司Check Point Software的专家Graeme Stewart表示，这类事故凸显了互联网对少数几家基础设施提供商的过度依赖。

他说：

“很多机构依然让所有关键服务都依赖同一条路径，而且没有真正有效的备份。一旦这条路径出问题，就没有任何后备方案。这就是我们一直看到的问题。”

萨里大学（University of Surrey）网络安全教授Alan Woodward表示，周二的故障再次说明互联网高度依赖“少数玩家”。他把Cloudflare形容为“你从未听说过的最大公司”。

“人们别无选择，只能依赖这些少数大公司。”

  首席技术官道歉

Cloudflare首席技术官Dane Knecht为这次事故道歉。他在X上写道：

“当Cloudflare网络出现问题，影响到依赖我们的海量流量时，我们辜负了客户，也辜负了整个互联网。这个问题本身、造成的影响、以及解决所花的时间，都是不可接受的。我们已经开始着手确保类似情况不会再次发生，但我知道今天确实给大家带来了麻烦。客户对我们的信任最为重要，我们会尽一切努力赢回这份信任。”

Cloudflare在过去几年曾多次经历类似宕机。

2019年7月，Cloudflare软件中的一个漏洞导致网络部分模块过度占用计算资源，使全球数千家依赖Cloudflare的网站（包括Discord、Shopify、SoundCloud以及Coinbase）离线长达30分钟。2022年6月，Cloudflare发生故障，影响其19个数据中心的流量，导致多个主要网站和服务瘫痪，持续约一个半小时。

Cloudflare的软件被全球数十万家公司使用，作为企业网站与终端用户之间的缓冲层，用于保护网站免受流量攻击或流量突发导致的宕机。

去年，网络安全公司CrowdStrike发布的错误软件更新导致运行微软Windows系统的数百万台设备崩溃，给航空、银行、医疗等众多行业造成大范围混乱。

CrowdStrike的这次宕机源于其产品中一个在客户电脑最底层运行的错误。而Cloudflare的作用是保护互联网基础设施，如网站和平台，因此当Cloudflare宕机时，许多热门网站会直接无法访问或出现异常。Cloudflare主要负责“让网站始终在线且速度够快”，而CrowdStrike专注于保护电脑和服务器免受攻击。

 

MU stock | IBD leader Top 10

 Market Close

$228.50

$13.45 (5.56%)

Volume % Chg:

26%

Buy Point: 

$128.60

Position Size: 

Quarter

Buy Range: 

$128.60 - $135.03

Current Action: 

Micron found support after pulling back to the 21-day exponential moving average amid heavy selling Tuesday. It had been showing unusual strength, rising to all-time highs while the Nasdaq has pulled back more than 6% below its peak.

Leaderboard Analysis: 

The Leaderboard stock got trimmed to a quarter position from half on Sept. 24 after shares fell through its short-term 10-day line. But since then, MU has since rallied back without even testing the 21-day line. Ahead of earnings on Sept. 23, Micron was hedged for half of the position with a Sept. 26-expiring 167.50 put option. After the close, Micron rose 4% after the hours as it posted solid earnings of $3.03 a share, beating all 25 analysts' estimates posted on Yahoo Finance. Sales were strong at $11.32 bil, $160 mil higher than the consensus estimate. To hedge half of the position, 1 put contract gets bought for every 100 shares owned long. The hedge allows Leaderboard to maintain a half-size position. On Wednesday morning, the put hedge got sold ahead of expiration after MU held above the 10-day moving average. Micron Technology was added a half-size position Sept. 9 as it cleared a cup-with-handle buy point. It hit its 20% profit goal just two days later following a price target hike from Citi, which triggered the eight-week hold rule. This is a first-stage pattern for Micron. IBD research has found early-stage formations are more likely to net good gains for investors. The stock ripped almost 87% higher from recent lows to the left side high of the new consolidation.

Backstory: 

The maker of computer memory components is enjoying strong demand for products for solid-state drives, auto systems, cloud and enterprise networks. Annual figures show a lot of cyclicality. Earnings are expected to explode 103% this year before turning in 16% growth in 2026. The Boise, Id.-based company also pays a small dividend, yielding 0.2% annually. Micron on Sept. 23 announced record for the August-ended quarter, "driven by pricing execution and strong performance across end markets." In fiscal 2025, revenue jumped nearly 50% to $37.4 billion as gross margin surged 17 percentage points to 41%. "This performance was supported by the ramp of our high value data center products and our broad-based DRAM pricing strength across end markets." Micron also noted that its datacenter SSD (solid state drive) business hit record revenue and market share during the fiscal year that ended in August. In Q4, the company notched non-GAAP net income of $3.47 bil, or $3.03 a share, while operating cash increased 24% to $5.73 billion. Adjusted earnings leapt 157% to $3.03 a share; net margin was 30.7%. Morgan Stanley recently raised its price target on MU to $325.

Recent Articles:

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Micron Stock Rises After Memory-Chip Maker Ups Outlook

TVTX stock | Leaderboard

 Market Close

$36.00

$0.56 (1.58%)

Volume % Chg:

33%

Buy Point: 

$28.69

Buy Range: 

$28.69 - $30.12

Current Action: 

Small cap Travere Therapeutics soared after reporting strong Q3 results. Plus, TVTX reaped a 20% gain in just five sessions, warranting a hold for at least eight weeks since the breakout day.

Leaderboard Analysis: 

The newfound strength comes after Travere cleared a cup-with-handle base during the week ended Sept. 5. The relative strength line initially hit new highs in September too, highlighting the stock's outperformance vs. the S&P 500.

Backstory: 

The company develops treatments to treat rare disorders in the fields of nephrology, blood and metabolism. It has climbed to $3 billion in market value. A member of IBD's biotech group, Travere reported its second straight quarter of triple-digit revenue growth, with sales up 162% to $164.9 million. Filspari sales totaled $90.9 million, up 155%. Filspari slows the decline of kidney function in patients who are at risk for their disease getting worse. The biotech ended Q3 with just over $250 million in cash. Travere isn't profitable yet, but it's expected to shave its net loss dramatically in 2025 to 40 cents a share, then turn its first annual profit of 82 cents a share in 2026. Travere has 89.5 million shares outstanding; funds own 74% of the share float of 85 million.

Recent Articles:

ARQT stock | Leaderboard | Sector leader

 Market Close

$27.28

$1.11 (4.24%)

Volume % Chg:

37%

Buy Point: 

$17.29

Buy Range: 

$17.29 - $18.15

Current Action: 

Arcutis Biotherapeutics soared after reporting earnings on Oct. 28. It is now hitting new highs. The stock recently rebounded off its 21-day exponential moving average, a bullish sign.

Leaderboard Analysis: 

The biotech is hitting new highs after a breakout from a cup-with-handle base during the week ended Sept. 5. A weekly chart shows the stock making a tremendous comeback since ARQT peaked at 40.88 not long after its early 2020 IPO, then nose-dived to as low as 1.76 more than 3-1/2 years later in December of 2023.

Backstory: 

Arcutis' specialty is medical dermatology, including conditions like psoriasis and atopic dermatitis.Arcutis has several FDA-approved products, including topical roflumilast cream for plaque psoriasis. The company reported an adjusted Q3 profit of 6 cents a share, reversing a year-ago loss, while revenue jumped 112% to $99.2 million. While sales have climbed steadily for many quarters, Arcutis had bled red ink for at least seven years until the solid profit in Q3 of this year. Earnings are expected to come in at 7 cents a share in Q4. Wall Street has shifted its profit forecast in 2026 up to 45 cents a share, a big change from a net loss of $1.16 in 2024 and an expected loss of 21 cents in 2025.

Recent Articles:

Leaderboard | Nov 18 2025

 

Gold Plays Regain Some Luster; Vertiv Exits

Updated 11/18/2025 03:25 PM ET

Leaderboard names had a mixed session Tuesday amid a mini-rebound by the major indexes that ultimately failed to erase early sharp losses.

While the S&P 500 cut its loss, at one point as much as 1.4%, it still tread below the key and still-rising 50-day moving average. The Nasdaq also trimmed losses, which at one point exceeded 2%.

Gold miners Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC) and Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) found buyers, however, on Tuesday as underlying gold futures ended with a slight loss at $4,071 an ounce. At one point, gold fell to $3,997.

KGC rose more than 2% to halt a three-session losing streak. On Friday, shares briefly dipped to the 50-day line. AEM is still testing the conviction of holders along the 50-day moving average amid a 1% rise following three straight down days.

Meanwhile, Vertiv (NYSE:VRT) was given the boot amid negative action on Tuesday morning. Shares did rebound off the intraday low. Meanwhile, Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) struggled the most, down more than 4%.

We booked gains in the remaining quarter-size position in Vertiv as it fell below its 50-day moving average, triggering a sell signal. The data center play was off session lows and down around 4% in recent trade. Vertiv fell despite news it's collaborating with Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) to develop power and cooling solutions for data centers.

Computer memory play Micron has undercut last week's lows and is now making a test of the 21-day exponential moving average. 

BeOne Medicines (NASDAQ:ONC) came off session lows, but also got hit hard. Shares in the global oncology firm have made a round trip of sub-10% gains from a breakout point at 355.30. 

The weakness comes despite a price target hike from RBC to 408 from 395. RBC also maintained an outperform rating. It tested the 355.30 entry but has rebounded back above it, a positive sign.

Attention Subscribers: (Editor's Note: IBD is now taking the final resistance level across all key chart patterns as the buy point, instead of adding 10 cents. This means any price above a pivotal entry now signifies a breakout underway. The 10-cent rule derived from an adjustment to decimal-based pricing in the stock market more than 23 years ago. When dollar fractions were still being used, a breakout referred to a move of at least 1/8 of one dollar, or 12.5 cents, above the final resistance level in a specific chart pattern.)

Thank you for joining the October 9 quarterly Scorecard. Go here for the edited Q&A summary. Click here for the edited Q&A Summary for the July Scorecard. The next Leaderboard Scorecard webinar will take place in the second week of January 2026 at 1:30 p.m PT. Go here for links to all past webinar video recordings.

For an overview of the Leaderboard portfolio, please click on the Position Summary tab on the main page.

Nov 19 2025 | Earnings before/ after market

 Before market open - Nov 19 2025

After market close - Nov 19 2025

“一夜之间”，每个人都在卖英伟达

 全球顶级投资者正在抛售英伟达，亿万富翁Peter Thiel旗下对冲基金三季度清空了全部53.7万股英伟达持仓，全球最大对冲基金桥水则在同期大砍65%的仓位，这些动作发生在英伟达市值突破5万亿美元之际。

隔夜美股，英伟达股价下跌1.88%至186.6美元，Thiel Macro LLC提交的13F文件显示其已在截至9月30日的季度内清仓英伟达。此前一周，软银也披露已出售所持全部英伟达股份。这些大型机构投资者的撤离表明，即便在AI热潮持续升温的背景下，风险管理正成为首要考量。

这场机构投资者的集体撤退恰逢全球债务周期进入后期风险阶段。桥水创始人Ray Dalio近期警告称，下一次金融危机更可能源于主权债务问题，美国公共债务攀升和地缘政治紧张局势共同推高了系统性风险。

英伟达将于周三美股收盘后公布财报。尽管真金白银的投资者正在撤出，华尔街分析师仍预期公司将交出亮眼业绩。FactSet分析师调查显示，市场预计英伟达10月季度调整后每股收益为1.23美元，营收548.3亿美元。

顶级对冲基金集体减仓

Peter Thiel的Thiel Macro LLC在截至9月30日的季度内出售了全部537,742股英伟达股票。这位硅谷最具影响力的投资者之一的撤离时机引人注目——正值英伟达市值突破5万亿美元，华尔街分析师普遍将其视为AI领域"不可动摇"的领头羊之际。

桥水基金的调仓更为激进。最新13F文件显示，截至9月30日，桥水持有英伟达251万股，较二季度末的723万股暴降65.3%。这一转变尤为剧烈——就在第二季度，桥水才对英伟达持仓大幅加码逾150%。两个季度的急转弯标志着明显的策略转向：从"追随趋势"到"风险管理优先"。

软银上周也披露已出售其所持全部英伟达股份。这些全球顶级机构投资者的一致行动，表明在AI热潮的表象之下，一场"避险式调仓"正在悄然发生。

宏观风险推动策略转向

桥水基金的大规模减仓与其创始人Ray Dalio近期发出的警告相呼应。据此前报道，Dalio认为全球债务周期已进入后期风险阶段，下一次金融危机更可能源于主权债务问题而非传统市场过度投机。

13F文件还显示，桥水在同一季度大幅加仓美股大盘指数ETF，并清理多只新兴市场重仓股。这一组合拳式的调仓动作表明，在财政和货币政策收紧环境下，即便是AI热潮的主要受益者，也需要重新评估风险敞口。

美国公共债务不断攀升、地缘政治紧张局势以及央行干预措施共同推高了系统性风险，促使顶级投资者在高估值科技股上采取更为谨慎的立场。

分析师仍对财报抱有乐观预期

市场对英伟达即将公布的财报仍抱有高期望。D.A. Davidson分析师Gil Luria在研报中重申买入评级和250美元目标价，并表示：

考虑到我们在超大规模云服务商、新云服务商和前沿实验室中看到的趋势，我们认为没有理由相信需求正在放缓，市场低估了未来几年对算力的巨大需求。

摩根大通分析师Harlan Sur同样看好，维持增持评级和215美元目标价，Sur在研报中表示：

我们认为又一次稳健的业绩超预期和上调指引即将到来，潜在上行空间的幅度可能再次取决于英伟达供应链在三个月内的扩张能力。

QCOM stocks | Trades | Lesson learned

 

Lessons learned:

1. Check 5 min long or short signal, do not trade on 1 min long/ short signal
2. Avoid trades when 5 min short signal - downtrend 
3. Do not buy dip - only when 5 min long signal shows up 
4. Check volume and make sure that 5 min long signal is strong enough for return
5. Always get in when QCOM has 5 min long signal using twin range filter close indicator
6. Review again - do not trade for weak rebound - using support and resistance or 1 min long signal or just analyze 1 min bar 
7. The goal is to survive big loss on trades 
8. Be careful! do not trade when K line is underneath 5 min chart EMA20 

Tradingview.com | Qcom stock | 4 H support | How to trade?

 

How Qualcomm Plans To Keep Growing, With Or Without Apple

Here is the link. 

Qualcomm long reigned as the world’s biggest fabless chip company, pioneering the cellular age and making the modems inside nearly every smartphone today. But ChatGPT sent Nvidia’s revenue soaring past Qualcomm’s this month, and Apple is working on its own modems for iPhones after 2024. Now Qualcomm is diversifying into smart cars, chips for VR headsets, and powering generative AI off the cloud. We got an inside look at Qualcomm’s chip lab in San Diego, and its plans to hold on to wireless dominance. Chapters: 00:00 — Introduction 02:16 — Launching the cellular age 06:06 — Growing chip business 08:11 — Life beyond Apple 10:56 — Diversifying to auto and more 13:47 — AI and what's next

美光继续上行

 美光周一继续上涨(MU) 。这家存储芯片公司看起来正从其韩国竞争对手的强劲需求信号中受益。在截至周五收盘的过去三个月里，其股价已上涨超过一倍，这是由于人工智能热潮席卷市场，对内存和存储硬件的需求激增。

据报道，这家美国公司股价的上涨与其韩国同行SK Hynix (000660) 11%的涨幅有关。SK Hynix周一在Seoul举行的SK AI Summit 2025上展示了其下一代产品计划，包括几款定制的AI内存芯片。尽管Micron和SK Hynix是竞争对手，但内存芯片的需求如此之高，以至于任何进展都可能被视为对整个行业利好消息。SK Hynix最近表示，其明年全部的芯片产量已售罄，并补充说，由于AI需求激增，其传统DRAM内存芯片部门的产能可能受限。


这种巨大的需求激增正在改变整个行业。根据Taiwanese publication DigiTimes周一的报道，Samsung Electronics (005930) 已暂时停止公布部分内存芯片产品的合同价格，直至十一月中旬，原因是现货价格翻了三倍。Samsung没有立即回应Barron's的置评请求。

研究公司TrendForce预计，第四季度传统DRAM价格将上涨18%至23%。TrendForce的分析师周一写道："Samsung已基本停止合同报价，而其他供应商则采取观望态度，这助长了竞价氛围，持续推动DRAM价格急剧上涨。"

年内暴涨182%、利润激增538% 美光成AI芯片潮大赢家

 在人工智能浪潮席卷全球的2025年，存储芯片巨头美光科技（NASDAQ: MU）上演了一场令人瞩目的资本盛宴。截至11月5日，该股股价年内累计涨幅已达182%，市值攀升至2670亿美元，成为AI芯片板块最耀眼的明星之一。

业绩井喷：营收创纪录，利润暴增538%

最新财报显示，美光在刚结束的2025财年（截至8月）交出了一份破纪录的成绩单：

年度营收达370亿美元，同比增长49%

调整后每股收益8.29美元，同比飙升538%

这轮强劲表现主要得益于全球科技巨头加速布局AI数据中心。美光的DRAM内存芯片和固态硬盘，作为AI服务器不可或缺的关键组件，正面临供不应求的市场格局。公司首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra在近期财报会议上表示，AI驱动需求正在加速，行业DRAM供应持续紧张。强劲的需求，紧张的供应格局以及公司的稳健运营，显著提升了整个DRAM产品线的盈利能力。

周期魔咒或将被打破？

尽管存储芯片行业素以强周期性著称，但当前AI引发的结构性变化可能重塑行业生态。微软、谷歌等云服务提供商持续追加资本开支扩建数据中心，为美光带来了前所未有的需求支撑。

值得注意的是，在业绩高增长背景下，美光估值仍显克制。根据2026财年预期收益测算，该股前瞻市盈率约14倍，而分析师预测公司未来几年年均盈利增速将达65%，形成显著的“增长溢价”。

业内观察人士指出，虽然股价已处历史高位，但考虑到AI数据中心建设仍处早期阶段，存储芯片供需格局有望保持紧平衡。不过投资者也需警惕行业产能扩张可能带来的周期性回调风险，毕竟存储芯片价格波动始终是影响企业盈利的关键变量。