To find a measured move profit target for your Broadcom (AVGO) trade under these exact parameters, you can apply multiple objective Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and classic price action framework techniques.
Given your setup—a 10-bar consolidation (50 minutes) breakout, a Bigbeluga demand box, a Fair Value Gap (FVG), and price hovering near the 5-minute EMA at $360/share—here is how to mathematically calculate and identify your exit targets.
📈 1. The Consolidation Box Measured Move (The "AB=CD" Classic Projection)
When a stock breaks out of a defined accumulation or consolidation box, the height of that consolidation determines the minimum expected continuation move.
- How to calculate it:
- Measure the exact price difference between the highest wick/body of that 50-minute consolidation and the lowest wick (the demand box floor).
- Example: If the high of the consolidation was $361.50 and the low was $358.50, your consolidation height is $3.00.
- The Target: Add that height directly to the breakout trigger price (or the top of the box). If the breakout is at $361.50, your measured move target is $364.50.
🎯 2. Fibonacci Extensions (SMC Standard)
SMC traders rely heavily on Fibonacci expansion tools applied to the initial "impulse leg" or the consolidation range itself to extract specific mathematical take-profit (TP) levels.
- How to apply it: Draw your Fibonacci Extension tool from the Absolute Low of the Demand Box \(\rightarrow \) to the Swing High of the Breakout Leg \(\rightarrow \) back down to the Retest Low (often inside your FVG or where it kissed the 5-min EMA).
- The Golden Targets:
- TP1 (Conservative): The 1.00 Ext level (100% measured move of the first leg).
- TP2 (Standard SMC Target): The 1.272 or 1.618 Ext levels. In a high-momentum stock like AVGO, the 1.618 level represents the ultimate structural extension for institutional profit-taking.
🗺️ 3. SMC Liquidity Pools & Unmitigated Supply (The Map)
- Equal Highs (EQH) / Relative Equal Highs: If there are two or more clean peaks sitting just above your $360 level, algorithmic buy-stops rest right above them. Target 2–5 cents above those highs.
- Previous Unmitigated Supply / Bearish Order Block: Locate the last bearish candle that initiated a previous aggressive drop before today. Institutions will often push price straight into that zone to mitigate their remaining orders. Set your ultimate take-profit just at the discount edge (bottom boundary) of that supply zone.
Execution & Management Blueprint
| Component | Role in the Trade | Strategy Execution |
|---|---|---|
| Bigbeluga Demand Box | Trade Foundation | Invalidated if a 5-min candle closes completely below this zone. |
| Fair Value Gap (FVG) | Entry Catalyst | Treat the FVG/EMA confluence as your optimal "discount" entry fill. |
| 5-min EMA ($360) | Dynamic Trailing Stop | Once price hits your 1.00 Measured Move target, trail your stop loss right underneath the moving average. |
💡 Strategy Suggestion
Because AVGO can move fast intraday, scale out of your position. Take 50% of your position off the table at the 1:1 Consolidation Box Projection (protecting your capital and locking in gains). Let the remaining 50% run toward the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension or the nearest unmitigated 15-minute Supply Zone overhead. [1]
To help pinpoint the exact dollar targets for this setup, let me know:
- What were the exact high and low prices of that 10-bar consolidation box?
- What is the current price of the stock right now?
I can calculate the exact extension levels for your trade.
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