Here is the link.
真正开Youtube的第一个视频。当然是要介绍我的投资style以及最重要的事情。 这个视频里面真的是我全部的“秘笈“了，其它所有都是在这个基础上延申出去的细节而已。 投资修炼在个人， 如果感兴趣的话，或许以后我还会继续做更多视频讲解。 视频后面提到的每天听的Podcast： Motley Fool podcasts： https://www.fool.com/podcasts/ Squawk on the Street：https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/squaw... Fast Money：https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/01/fast-... Mad Money： https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/01/mad-m... 本频道纯粹投资闲聊，视频中所讨论到的股票不构成任何投资建议。 投资需谨慎，后果观众自负。 请大家自己做研究，任何投资后果和本频道以及本频道的嘉宾无关。
养老厂爆改血汗工厂！谷歌er撑不住了究竟为何？
近期，媒体《第一财经》（隶属于上海广播电视台）多次发表“冲塔评论”，如《上山容易下山难？从需求侧看经济》（已被404）、《对民营经济最好的承诺是放手放权》、《法治经济才是最好的市场经济》这一现象引发了不少网民的关注，有媒体也提出猜测“是政府释放信号还是暴露内部分歧”？
简单点说，就是概率在时间上的分布和概率在空间上的分布，是可以相互替代的。
比如，请想象一下，我国人口与该人口收入所构成的分布图，每个阶层所占的人口百分比和财富所占的百分比是不一样的。中下层阶级可能占总人口比例60%，中上层阶级可能会占到总人口的10%，顶级富裕阶层可能会站到总人口的1%。完全遍历性指的就是假如我们能够活100年，我们一生中所经历过的从贫穷到富有或者从富有到贫穷，我们的财富随时间的分布，和这幅“各个阶层人口分布”是一模一样的，我们将有60年的时间在中下层度过，10年的时间，在中上收入阶层度过，在最富裕的1%阶层，度过一年的时间。时间的分布和空间的分布在结构上趋于一致。
完全遍历性的反面是吸收态，物理学的粒子运动中，当一个粒子撞击上一个吸收壁，他们就会被吸收或黏住，一旦被吸收就出不来了，吸收壁就像一个陷阱。体现在阶级固化上表现为，一个人凭借实力或者运气，经历了若干个随机事件后，变得富有，他将一直保持富有状态。另一个人当他从上层跌落到中下层（因犯罪、投资失败、疾病等等）他将永无翻身之日。
所以你要做到：一、活下去
二、别让自己在某随机事件爆掉。
考虑以下三个说法：
1、不要为了追逐你不迫切需要的利益去承担你承受不了的风险（对应上面的“活下去”）
2、永远做那些期望收益率为正的事情；
3、在上涨的时候多挣，在下跌的时候少赔，你就成功了。
聪明的你可能已经发现了，第二条和第三条其实说的是同一种意思，如果在足够长的时间内，随机过程是拥有遍历性的，那么你在时间的长河中，就要做那个“7亏2平1赚”那个“1赚”的人。当然，这里面并不是说你长时间的不赔钱，而是说你在胜率和赔率方面，对别人是有优势的。
在投资领域，要做期望值为正的事情。假如你参与的投资或投机具有遍历性，你初始所获得的概率才是有效的（不会因为一次的失败而爆掉），是可持续的，在时间轴上是具有遍历性的，当然你要好好活着，等着遍历性到来的那一天。
如果一个投资策略，已经被100个人证明，99个人是赚钱的，还有一个人不赚钱且赔的内裤都没有了（爆仓），那么可以说该投资策略的胜率为99%。如果你作为一个独立的个体，能否长期遵循这种策略进行投资呢？答案是否定的，因为你在随机过程中会突然死亡，你没有在时间轴上拥有遍历性。
试举一例：
股票市场中，别人瞎JB买，从20万炒到100万。
你瞎JB买，20万赔光。于是你觉得对方是股神。
同样是JB买，为什么会有如此之大的差距？
这就是随机性作弄人的一面。
没有道理可讲。
不要去追寻原因。
你总不可能去问一个“抛硬币10次，10次都是正面”的人，为什么？你有什么抛硬币的秘诀吗？
别问，问就是没有。
记住盈亏同源，让你从20万炒到100万的随机性，也可以让你赔个底掉，除非波动是不对称的，像可转债一样。
你在时间上没有实现遍历性，谈论空间里的概率就是无意义的，因为你有可能因为“突然死亡”被赌场踢出去。
作者：知乎用户
链接：https://www.zhihu.com/question/26070689/answer/1558164193
来源：知乎
著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权，非商业转载请注明出处。
Cyber shares have rarely been cheaper despite EPS growth
#cybersecurity #PANW #NET #Citi #Wealthoutlook
衣食住行，生活的四大支柱，每一项都不可或缺。然而，如今“住”的问题却成为许多人的一大困扰。住房问题不仅关乎生活品质，更是年轻人谈婚论嫁的前提。对于新入城市和刚毕业的大学生来说，解决住房问题更是首要任务。租房或许是开始，但在城市中长期定居，拥有一套属于自己的房子是必经之路。
Here is the article.
End-user spending for the information security and risk management market will grow from $172.5 billion in 2022 to $267.3 billion in 2026, or 11% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), according to Gartner. With all this money moving through the cybersecurity ecosystem, investors are keen to learn more about this sector.
Cybersecurity is an essential core infrastructure for individuals, companies and governments. Niche solutions have proliferated to meet the demand, and cybersecurity technology has become a growth area for investment. In the last 10 years, the number of publicly traded cybersecurity companies has tripled, and more than 1,500 M&A deals have closed, according to Momentum Cyber, a specialized investment bank.
With October being National Cybersecurity Month, Nasdaq is focusing on the cyber thematic with insights and research around this growing industry.
More Connectivity, More Vulnerability
Modern work and lifestyles have opened more areas of vulnerability to cyber-attacks. E-commerce has been rising over the last couple of decades, driven by the demand for wider choices and the ability to shop for products and services anytime, anywhere. Remote working has become more common as workers demand more flexibility and work-life balance. Moreover, technological advancements such as the internet-of-things (IoT) and 5G have multiplied vulnerabilities in networks because non-business
IoT devices—including items like refrigerators, pet feeders, coffee machines and gym equipment—are connected to corporate networks. Importantly, the COVID-19 lockdowns accelerated these trends.
These changes have major implications for cybersecurity. For example, remote work created new attack surfaces for cybercriminals to take advantage of, such as home devices being used for business purposes. Poorly configured virtual private networks (VPNs), which offer secure remote access connections between employees and their private corporate network, are also a high risk. In fact, the Colonial Pipeline attack in May 2021 was administered via a VPN. As a result, security teams have become far more concerned about so-called insider threats, which could potentially damage systems, destroy data, shut down operations and cost millions of dollars to repair.
Cyber-attacks are increasing dramatically in terms of volume, velocity and variety.
These developments have led to a wider variety of solutions required to protect individuals and systems. Cybersecurity used to focus on virus detection, implementing strong passwords and multi-factor authentication, ensuring devices are patched with the latest software updates and training workers to identify phishing attacks. Now it has expanded to an ecosystem comprising cloud security, data security, messaging security, endpoint security, web security, mobile security, network security, identity/access management, policy as code, incident response and more.
The Nasdaq CTA Cybersecurity Index™ (NQCYBR™)
The Nasdaq CTA Cybersecurity Index™ tracks the performance of companies that provide cybersecurity hardware, software and services. This enables investors to gain meaningful exposure to companies that play a key role in protecting the nation’s critical infrastructure without having to do extensive research independently. The index includes 37 companies primarily involved in the building, implementation and management of security protocols applied to private and public networks, computers and mobile devices to protect the integrity of data and network operations.
To be included in NQCBYR™, a security must be listed on an index-eligible global stock exchange and classified as a cybersecurity company as determined by the Consumer Technology Association (CTA). Each security must have a worldwide market capitalization of U.S. $250 million, have a minimum three-month average daily dollar trading volume of U.S. $1 million and have a minimum free float of 20%.
NQCYBR™ is evaluated semiannually in March and September and rebalanced quarterly. The modified liquidity weighted methodology includes caps on the percentage of any individual security to derive the final weights of the security.
A Peek Behind the Curtain
As of June 30, 2022, California-based Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is among the top 10 holdings in the index. This company delivers solutions across five key cyber security areas: zero trust network security, cloud security, secure service edge, security analytics and automation, and threat intelligence and security consulting. Its total revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2022 grew 27% year over year (YOY) to $1.6 billion, compared with the total revenue of $1.2 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2021. For the fiscal first quarter of 2023, the company expects total revenue in the range of $1.535 billion to $1.555 billion, representing YOY growth between 23% and 25%. For the fiscal year of 2023, it expects total revenue in the range of $6.85 billion to $6.90 billion, representing YOY growth of 25%.
Another top 10 holding, Cloudflare (NET), provides an integrated suite of solutions for an organization’s external facing infrastructure, internal facing infrastructure, developer-based solutions and consumer offerings. The California-based company has more than 132,000 paying customers around the world, and it added 212 large customers in fiscal second quarter of 2022. Cloudflare reported a total revenue of $234.5 million for the period, representing an increase of 54% YOY. For the fiscal third quarter 2022, it expects a total revenue of $250 million to $251 million, and for the full fiscal year, it expects a total revenue of $968 to $972 million.
Check Point Software (CHKP), headquartered in Israel, offers products across network security, cloud security, endpoint security, mobile security, IoT security, application security and Zero Trust Protection. For the second quarter of 2022, the company reported total revenues of $571 million, compared to $526 million in the second quarter of 2021, a 9% increase YOY.
The other top 10 holdings by weight include Crowdstrike (CRWD), Zscaler (ZS), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Okta (OKTA), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Thales (HO) and SentinelOne (S).
Currently, the First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield, fees and expenses, of NQCYBR.
Ultimately, broad-based strategies do not capture meaningful exposure to cybersecurity companies. There is a 3% overlap by weight between the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index® (NDX®), and CIBR. There is a 1% overlap by weight between the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and CIBR. Significantly, NQCYBR has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by about 17 percentage points on a total return basis cumulatively over the last three years as of June 30, 2022.
As a market owner and operator—and an important part of our nation’s critical infrastructure—cybersecurity is a top priority at Nasdaq. We are also committed to supporting companies that protect businesses and individuals from cyber-attacks by enabling them to raise capital on our markets and providing investors with an opportunity to participate in their growth story.
Here is the article.
Cybersecurity is a massive challenge. According to IBM's (IBM 2.25%) Cost of a Data Breach 2021 report, the average cost incurred for an organization that suffered a data breach event last year rose 10% to $4.2 million. A steady migration to cloud-based IT infrastructure and a hybrid workforce that spends significant amounts of time outside the office aren't making security any easier. As a result, cybersecurity is a big and fast-growing industry.
But picking the best cybersecurity stocks can be tricky. Cybersecurity is a large chunk of the technology space, and every sector of the economy needs software to help keep data and critical systems secure. There are a lot of companies operating in this niche, each with its own take on structuring a security platform. That's why investing in a cybersecurity ETF (exchange-traded fund) might make sense.
With geopolitical risk already heightened, the world will see heightened manipulation of news, data and images as critical 2024 elections get underway across the US, Europe, India and elsewhere (see Geopolitics and elections, page 24). Hacks and attempts to infiltrate the devices and files of political candidates have been a key tool for opposition research and malicious actors to add chaos to these democratic rituals. The continued growth of AI will bring with it ever-more sophisticated tools to be weaponized for pattern recognition and decryption. Thankfully, these technologies are also available for the “good guys,” with AI being deployed to improve cyber threat detection and prevention.
Citi Research’s survey of Chief Technology Officers³ ³ Citi CIO Survey: IT budgets further stabilize with uptick in transformation projects, October 13, 2023 at large US firms continues to indicate that spending on cybersecurity remains a top item in information technology budgets ( FIGURE 3 ). When choosing the right solution for combating cyber threats, companies increasingly choose to contract with outside vendors to substantially augment in-house capabilities. The Nasdaq CTA Cybersecurity delivered 14% earnings growth as October 31, 2023 (versus -0.4% for the S&P 500 as a whole). That’s on top of a 36% increase in earnings per share (EPS) in 2022.⁴ ⁴ Factset as of December 31, 2022.
Cybersecurity shares have failed to keep pace with this consistent, market-beating earnings growth. Valuations are hovering near early pandemic lows ( FIGURE 4 ). As we look to 2024, we see cybersecurity shares rerating to be a source for reliable profits growth in an otherwise uncertain world.
In the past year, two major dynamic shifts took hold across our economy: 1) technical leaps in artificial intelligence efficacy and an associated 2) infrastructure spend in the sector from artificial intelligence (AI) service providers.² ² Commerce department data shows US manufacturing facility construction spending has risen at a record 66% pace over the past year largely for semiconductor and battery supply chains. As we discuss elsewhere (see How generative AI might reshape every sector and AI-propelled digitization in 2024, starting on page 77), we believe AI could do more to boost economic output and labor productivity than any technology the global economy has seen in decades.
Competition is coming into the field of AI chip design. Some of the generative AI products might be a commercial failure or competitive laggard. But all the work requires advanced semiconductor equipment. As FIGURE 1 shows, the market cap of the top 10 semiconductor equipment makers has suddenly fallen behind the surging market cap of the semiconductor producers. In essence, there is less optimism for the “picks and shovels” than for the “silicon gold miners.” That makes little sense to us given that the barriers to entry for the makers of these sophisticated machines and materials tend to be at least as high as for the advanced chipmakers themselves.
But there is more to this story. As FIGURE 2 shows, the US government and its trade allies are offering industrial subsidies to diversify the highly concentrated semiconductor supply chain. Whatever the success of this diversification effort, it points to a strong prospective spending on semiconductor equipment (and battery technology). To date, this has largely only impacted a narrow segment of US construction spending. But in the next coming couple of years, this will be followed by capital equipment outlays.
The S&P 500
is well off its lows from earlier but still down on the day as the market goes through this rotation. What’s happening right now is major profit-taking in this year’s leaders and mega-cap tech darlings. Money is rotating out of the Magnificent Seven and slowing into small caps and lower-quality companies with weaker balance sheets that were beaten down this year due to a tough macroeconomic backdrop.
Investors are betting that if the Federal Reserve starts to loosen its monetary policy next year, the economic pressures that have hurt these stocks will ease. But chasing lower-quality stocks is not a great long-term strategy. That’s why we look to buy high-quality companies when they are put on sale. “Do not chase the bad, start looking at the good,” Jim said on Monday’s Homestretch
