Wednesday, January 21, 2026

orcl stock sell put $190 in 3 weeks is a good idea or not

 AI Overview

Based on data from late January 2026, selling a $190 put on Oracle (ORCL) with a 3-week expiration is a 
high-risk, tactical move, as the stock has recently experienced significant downward pressure, dropping below $180. 
Here is an analysis of why this strategy is risky, given that Oracle (ORCL) closed at $173.88 on January 21, 2026. 
Key Considerations (as of Jan 21, 2026)
  • Deeply In-the-Money (ITM): With ORCL trading around $174, a $190 strike put is already over $15 in-the-money. This means if you sell this put, you are highly likely to be assigned and forced to buy the shares at $190, even though they are trading significantly lower.
  • High Risk of Assignment: A sold put is "assigned" if the stock price is below the strike price at expiration. Given the current price of $174, the probability of assignment is very high.
  • Significant Unrealized Loss: If assigned at $190 while the stock is at $174, you would immediately have an unrealized loss of roughly $16 per share ($1,600 per contract), minus whatever premium you collected.
  • Weak Support Levels: Recent analysis indicated that if the $176 support level was broken, there might not be strong support until the $153-$156 range. 
Is it a Good Idea?
No, this is likely not a good idea unless your specific goal is to acquire ORCL shares at a "discounted" price compared to higher prices earlier in the month.
  • If you want the stock: You are better off buying the shares outright at $174 rather than promising to buy them at $190.
  • If you are looking for income (premium): While the premium will be high, the risk of assignment and a $1,600+ loss makes it a dangerous, non-defensive play.
  • If you are bearish: You should not be selling put options (which is a bullish or neutral strategy). 
Technical Context (Jan 2026)
  • Down Trend: The stock has shown major weakness, with recent reports highlighting a 17% drop in 5 days, showing "wild" volatility.
  • Lower Support: Recent data shows the stock falling below $180, potentially toward $170. 
Conclusion: Selling a $190 put when the stock is at $174 is a aggressive bet that the stock will sharply rebound back over $190 in just 3 weeks, which contradicts the current downward momentum. 

六种股市里赚钱最好的方法

 

爱玩股票AiWanGuPiao

对于普通人来说,在股市里赚钱最好的方法,大概就这六种: 第一种,是等大跌,买指数。 平时什么都不做,该上班上班,该生活生活。只用闲钱,等到市场出现那种“股灾式”的大跌(比如去年9月、今年4月的行情),再买入宽基ETF。不用选股,一次行情赚个30%-40%是可能的。 第二种,是专注一两只股票,反复做波段。 找到一两只你认为真正值得投资的股票,永远保留现金。涨的时候卖一点,跌的时候买一点,来回做,目标是把成本一路做低,甚至做成负数。 第三种,是攒股收股息。 买入那些股息率能到5%左右的国企、央企,在它们跌透时买进去,然后拿着吃分红。就像有朋友买公路股,本来只想每年拿4%的利息,结果遇上行情,股价还翻了一倍。 第四种,是看懂周期,反向布局。 远离现在炒上天的板块,去找那些没人关注的、低估的板块。比如2022年,大家都在追光伏、医药、白酒,有朋友那时布局跌了几年的银行股,现在市值已经翻了一倍。 第五种,是价值投资,等好公司打折。 说白了就是“数月亮不数星星”,只买龙头公司。等它们因为市场情绪被打到极度便宜时,分批重仓买进去。你的目标不是赚几个点,而是等它价值回归,赚两倍、三倍甚至更多的钱。 第六种,是赚企业成长的钱。 这是比较有难度的,就是去投那些市值还小、但前景很优秀、未来可能翻几倍甚至几十倍的公司。这需要你对行业有深刻的理解,就像“数星星”,考验的是你超级的选股能力。 这六条路,每一条都能走通。关键不是知道,而是选一条适合你自己的,然后坚持下去。

如何交易position trade | Leo Yuen

 

今天传授大家我是如何交易position trade的,并且举例过去这几年PLTR给我带来上百万美金的利润!

说下我对swing trade和position trade的本质区别吧,自从2020年开始我就喜欢做position trade,因为position trade通常会伴随一些市场上big winners的出现,一旦你抓到这些big winners的话,你的帐户是比做swing trade带来的收益要高很多很多,我定义的position trade无非就一个核心就是市值必须要大才行,至少在40 billions以上,最好在50 billions以上,这样你才安心的开大一点ROTE,通常这种position trade的ROTE可以开到0.4-1%这个区间,止损的话通常在3%以内,这样窄止损可以把仓位开到很大,一旦遇到市场的big winners的话,你是可以吃的非常香的!position trade的止盈方式都会伴随我用的被动止盈方式,就是不断提高你的止损区域until真的被打到离场 总结下我自己对position trade的核心看法: 1.市值至少在40 billions以上,最好在50 billions以上 2. 这只股必须是华尔街机构目前交易的热点,而且每个季度的Sales和operation revenue都必须有3位数的增长 3. ROTE可以开到0.4-1%这个区间 4. 止损的话通常在3%以内,窄止损大仓位这种配合 5. 止盈方式都会伴随我用的被动止盈方式,就是不断提高你的止损区域(在50MA附近)until真的被打到离场,这样你才能真正的抓去一段bigger move 而swing trade就不同了,没有市值的要求,但市值小的股票涨幅的延续性不如市值大的big winners,市值小的非常容易大涨大跌,即使涨了100%也很容易跌50%,这是非常常见现象,swing trade的ROTE不能开特别大,一般在0.1-0.4%这个区间,止损一般也是比position trade大一点的,在3-12%这个范围内,而止损大了这也意味着你仓位会很小,所以这就是swing trade和position trade区别。 总结下我自己对swing trade核心看法: 1. 市值没有特别要求 2. ROTE在0.1-0.4%这个区间 3. 止损的话通常在3-12%以内,止损大的话意味着仓位会特别小 引用William O'Neil说过:“股市的一个伟大悖论是看起来太高的东西通常会更高,看起来太低的东西通常会更低。”通常太高的东西会更高这些都是big winners的特征,都是市场的热点,都是有一定市值的,所以position trade给你赚大钱远远多过swing trade的,美股每年都会有big winners出现所以不用担心抓不到!

能源、盟友、格陵兰……特朗普达沃斯演讲回应一切

 美国总统特朗普于周三抵达瑞士达沃斯,并在世界经济论坛年会上发表演讲。


综合央视新闻与新华社等报道,特朗普的演讲超过一个小时,逐一回应了美国经济、能源路线、与欧洲等盟友的关系,以及格陵兰岛等热点话题。

对于美国经济,他表示,美国通胀已被击败,美国核心通胀率为1.5%,由于关税措施,美国药品价格将大幅下降90%,预计美国2025年第四季度经济增长率为5.4%,超过国际货币基金组织预测的两倍。

在能源方面,特朗普称美国石油日产量增加73万桶,汽油价格很快就会低于2美元/加仑,而天然气产量则处于历史最高水平。此外,美国还在大力发展核能,现在能够以合理的价格获得核能。

为配合人工智能爆发式的运算需求,美国能源部在去年底通过改革将石油和核能资源置于优先地位。联邦政府正计划在2030年前开建10座新反应堆,总投资达800亿美元。

特朗普还透露,上周美国从委内瑞拉获取了5000万桶原油,并将与对方“分成”石油收入。一天前,委内瑞拉代总统罗德里格斯称该国政府已从由美国主导的5亿美元原油销售收入中收到首笔款项3亿美元,这些资金将用于帮助提高劳动者收入并抑制通货膨胀。

截至2025年底,美国联邦债务总额已逼近‌40万亿美元‌,占其GDP的比重高达‌123%‌。对此,特朗普宣称经济增长、削减开支、收取关税是解决出路。他透露通过关税措施,将月度贸易逆差削减了77%。

在谈到美国与传统盟友的关系时,特朗普的讲话显得火药味十足。

他回应了加拿大总理卡尼的“不点名批评”,称加拿大因为美国而存在,对方需要记住这一点。卡尼在一天前的达沃斯演讲中暗指长期以来由美国主导的国际秩序已经终结,加拿大等中等大国必须转变策略,避免沦为强大势力进一步“胁迫”的牺牲品。

特朗普还提到,美国一直受到北约的不公平对待,但从来没有(向北约)伸手索要任何东西,如果美国遭到打击,也不确定北约是否会提供帮助。

他试图还在演讲中为格陵兰岛话题降温,称这个丹麦的自治领地是北美洲的一部分、美国的“核心国家安全利益”所在,但美国无意动用过激武力来获取,正寻求立即就收购格陵兰岛事宜展开谈判。随后丹麦政府对这一最新表态予以正面评价。

特朗普说,美国需要的是强大盟友,而不是实力严重削弱的盟友,格陵兰局势充分反映了这个问题,除了美国,没有哪个国家有能力确保这个世界第一大岛的安全。

由于俄乌冲突和关税纷争,围绕价值观与安全分歧,跨大西洋之间的裂痕在加深。白宫新版《国家安全战略》报告进一步将欧洲地位降级。

特朗普自称是欧洲移民的后代,美国关心欧洲人民,但欧洲在绿色能源和移民问题上走错了路。欧洲的一些地方已经变得面目全非。

鉴于特朗普就格陵兰岛问题发出关税威胁,欧洲议会已决定无限期冻结欧美贸易协议,还考虑对价值930亿欧元的美国输欧商品加征关税,或者限制美国企业进入。

特朗普还可能在本次论坛期间召开所谓的“加沙和平委员会”首次会议,这个由他主导的机制被批评人士质疑为试图打造“平行联合国”的地缘政治工具。德国和法国已明确收到其加入的邀请,但公开回绝。

本届达沃斯年会以“对话的精神”为主题,围绕如何在竞争加剧的世界中开展合作、如何释放新的增长动力、如何推动创新技术的规模化应用等五大关键全球挑战展开讨论。各大国的互动也备受瞩目。

HAL | TDY | Earnings Gainers | Jan 21 2026

 


how to close a stock position to avoid gap down after market close

 To avoid a gap down (a sharp price drop) that often occurs after the regular market close, the most effective strategy is to close your stock position during active trading hours before the 4:00 PM EST closing bell. Gaps are primarily caused by after-hours earnings reports, news announcements, or, for foreign stocks, overnight developments. 

Here are the specific, actionable ways to close a position and avoid a gap down:
1. Close Before the Closing Bell (Pre-emptive Action) 
  • Market-on-Close (MOC) Order: If you want to exit near the final price, place a market-on-close order, which executes at the closing price.
  • Stop-Loss Orders Before 4 PM: Set a sell-stop order during the day. If the stock falls to your price, it turns into a market order. While this doesn't protect against a gap that happens exactly at 4:00 PM, it protects you if the stock starts failing just before the close.
  • Cut Position Before Earnings: If a company reports earnings after the bell, close the position entirely before 4:00 PM to eliminate all overnight risk. 
2. Trade in Extended Hours (After-Hours Session)
  • After-Hours Selling: If you cannot sell during regular hours, use your broker’s extended-hours trading session (typically 4:00 PM to 8:00 PM EST).
  • Use Limit Orders: When trading after hours, only use limit orders. The spread between the bid and ask price is wider, and liquidity is low, meaning a market order could fill at a significantly worse price. 
3. Use Protective Instruments 
  • Buy Put Options: Buying a put option on the stock gives you the right to sell at a certain price, acting as an insurance policy against a large downward gap.
  • Scale Out/Partial Sale: If you are unsure if a gap down will occur, sell 1/3 or 1/2 of your position before the close to reduce your exposure to risk. 
4. Technical Strategy: Using Stops Correctly 
  • Trailing Stops: Implement a trailing stop that moves up with the stock price. This allows you to lock in profits while protecting against sudden reversals.
  • Support Levels: Set your stop-loss just below a known support level or a percentage below your purchase price (e.g., 5-15%) to automatically trigger a sale if the price breaks. 
Key Considerations:
  • Gaps cannot be fully avoided: No strategy guarantees you can avoid a gap, but these methods help manage the risk.
  • Stop-loss limitations: If a stock gaps down below your stop-loss price after the market closes, the order will execute at the new, lower price.
  • Avoid Emotional Trading: If a gap down happens, avoid panic-selling immediately at the open. Sometimes the price rebounds, so it is better to have a premeditated plan. 

NFLX option

 


NFLX stock | Option | Netflix Is Below 1-Year Lows With Heavy Call and Put Option Activity - Bullish Signals for NFLX

 Barchart - Columnist

Netflix Inc. (NFLX) stock is trading below its one-year low prices, along with heavy out-of-the-money call and put option activity. This is a major bullish signal, especially given Netflix's strong free cash flow results released yesterday.

NFLX is at $83.29 in midday trading on Wednesday, January 21, 2026, down over 4.6%. This price is well below its one-year low prices of $85.59 on April 4, 2025, and $86.67 on March 10, 2025.


The New Warner Bros. Deal

Netflix also announced yesterday that it changed the terms of its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) to an all-cash bid of $27.75 per share. The announcement did not specify the cost to Netflix. But, based on its enterprise value, it would value Warner Bros. at $82.7 billion. 

This offer includes an increased debt component of $42.2 billion, according to a Variety report, up from $34.0 billion as of December 19, 2025 (although down from $59 billion in the original deal).

Nevertheless, this is still lower than the $30.00 per share all-cash offer from Paramount Skydance. The company said that its bid valued Warner Bros. at $108 billion, according to Forbes.

Their deal would not include a spin-off of Discovery Global, as the Netflix deal entails. This division includes cable TV networks like CNN, TNT, TBS, HGTV, TNT Sports, and Discovery+, according to Variety.

WBD is trading higher at $28.55, implying that some investors may be expecting a higher offer for the company from Netflix. WBD shareholders are now set to vote on the deal by April in a special shareholder meeting. 

Paramount may decide to challenge that meeting as it is planning a proxy fight for WBD's board. Therefore, the fight goes on between these two bidders. That uncertainty may be causing the huge volatility in NFLX stock.

Strong Results from Netflix

Nevertheless, Netflix reported strong Q4 results yesterday. For example, revenue rose 17.5% in Q4 over last year, and free cash flow (FCF) was up +35.9%.

This can be seen in the company's summary table on the first page of its shareholder letter.


In addition, the trailing 12-month (TTM) FCF results were higher. Stock Analysis reports that its TTM FCF was $9.461 billion, up 36.7% from a year earlier. That was also up +5.5% from the prior quarter's TTM FCF of $8.967 billion.

Moreover, the Stock Analysis site shows that the TTM FCF margin rose to 20.94% of revenue, up from 17.75% of revenue a year earlier, and even up from the prior quarter's 20.57% FCF margin.

The point is that the company is continuing its strong performance. In addition, Netflix reported over $9 billion in cash on its balance, along with a slightly lower $13.5 billion in long-term debt.

The point is that the company should be able to afford the new $42.2 billion in debt from the proposed WBD acquisition. However, that is still making investors nervous.

That explains why NFLX has fallen so far.

Unusual Stock Options Activity Shows Bullish Sentiment

Nevertheless, this provides some opportunities for some investors. This can be seen in Barchart's Unusual Stock Options Activity Report today.


It shows that some large call options activity at the $84.00 strike price expiring Jan. 30, 2026. It shows that over 10,400 call options have traded, or over 104 times the prior number of calls outstanding at the strike price and expiry period.

That implies that a large number of buyers, willing to pay $1.69 at the midpoint, believe that NFLX could rise over $85.69 by the end of the month. 

Moreover, sellers of the calls are willing to sell shares at $84.00, making a yield of over 2.0% (i.e., $1.69/$83.47 spot price), plus a potential total return of +2.659% (i.e., $85.69/$83.47-1).

Also, short-sellers of the May 15, 2026, put options at the $73.00 strike price, which is over 12.5% lower than today's price, are able to receive $2.37, or a yield 3.25% over the next 3.8 months (114 days). 

That also means that they would be happy to buy NFLX stock at a net breakeven price of $69.63 (i.e., $72-$2.37), or -16.6% below today's price. That is another bullish signal at today's depressed NFLX stock price.

The bottom line is that this heavy out-of-the-money put and call option activity implies that some investors are now willing to invest in today's depressed NFLX stock price.


On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake, CFA did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.