FedEx (FDX) and Nike (NKE) headline the latest earnings calendar, with the major stock indexes perched near all-time highs. Nike has been trending lower amid a slowdown in growth, while trading has started to tighten up in FedEx, with the package delivery giant less than 10% from its all-time high.
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This Hedging Strategy Changes The Game For Managing Risk During Earnings Season
Nike stock has gapped down the last four times it's reported earnings. In October, Nike tapped company veteran Elliott Hill to take over the CEO post from John Donahoe, who joined Nike in early 2020. Donahoe formerly led ServiceNow (NOW).
FedEx, meanwhile, has implemented several cost-cutting initiatives in recent months, including combining its ground, air and other operations in a single company. The goal is to reduce costs by $4 billion by the end of its current fiscal year, ending in May. But shares gapped down sharply on Sept. 20 after cost cuts did not offset weakness in lucrative priority services. Earnings missed expectations and FedEx also lowered its full-year earnings outlook.
Results from FedEx are due Thursday after the close. The FactSet consensus is for adjusted profit of $4.02 a share, up 1% year over year, with revenue flat at $22.2 billion.
Nike Stock Struggles
Nike stock has been stuck in the doldrums amid a slowdown in growth. But shares got a lift Wednesday after the company announced a 10-year extension with the National Football League as an exclusive apparel provider.
Nike gapped down sharply Oct. 2 after the company missed on revenue. It also withdrew its full-year guidance. Footwear sales in North America fell 14%, while apparel sales fell 10%. Sales at Converse, which Nike acquired all the way back in 2003, dropped 15% to $501 million. Weakness in China also weighed on results, with revenue down 4% to $1.67 billion, making up 14% of total revenue.
Nike stock struggled after the company made a decision to focus more on direct selling to consumers through its own website and stores rather than through wholesalers like DSW (DBI) and Foot Locker (FL). Direct sales at Nike were down 13% in the August-ended quarter, to $4.7 billion. Digital sales dropped 15%.
Last year, Donahoe acknowledged that Nike needed to improve its relationships with wholesalers. There's optimism that will happen now that Elliott Hill has the CEO reins. Hill spent 32 years at Nike before retiring in 2020 and is highly regarded among Nike's retail partners.
Results from Nike are due Thursday after the close. Adjusted profit is expected to fall 37% to 65 cents a share, with revenue down 9% to $12.2 billion.
Watching CarMax
While FedEx and Nike have been lagging in the stock market, CarMax's daily chart shows a cup-with-handle base with an 86.49 buy point. The weekly chart shows CarMax (KMX) on pace for its seventh straight weekly gain.
Used car dealerships like CarMax could do well if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his tariff plans. Steel tariffs would likely make new cars more expensive and could spur more demand for used cars. Earlier in the week, Evercore ISI kept an in-line rating on CarMax and lifted its price target to 85 from 83. A day earlier, RBC maintained an outperform rating and lifted CarMax's price target to 99 from 82.
Earnings growth has started to turn around for CarMax. After reporting bottom-line growth of 13% for the August-ended quarter, growth is expected to accelerate for the November-ended quarter, up 18% to 61 cents a share. Revenue is expected to dip 2% to just over $6 billion, with slight revenue gains expected for the next three quarters. Results are due Thursday after the close.
Jabil, Birkenstock Set To Report
Meanwhile, electronics contract manufacturer Jabil (JBL) is forming a cup-with-handle base with a 139.21 entry ahead of its earnings report early Wednesday. Earnings are seen declining again, down 28% to $1.88 a share, with revenue down 21% to $6.6 billion.
Goldman Sachs on Wednesday maintained a buy rating, while lifting Jabil's price target to 145 from 132.
In the footwear space, Birkenstock (BIRK) has rallied off lows with some volume, helping lift its Accumulation/Distribution Rating to B+. Fundamentals are solid and growth prospects look good, too, with fiscal 2025 earnings expected to jump 39% to $1.81 a share.
Birkenstock had its IPO in October 2023 at 46 per share. It had the look of a leader until shares gapped down on Aug. 29, when earnings missed expectations. Margins were pressured amid a global expansion and increased production.
Quarterly profit is expected to nearly double to 27 cents a share. Revenue is seen rising 17% to $461.9 million.
Options Trading Strategy
A basic options trading strategy around earnings — using call options — allows you to buy a stock at a predetermined price without taking a lot of risk. Here's how the option trading strategy works:
First, identify top-rated stocks with a bullish chart. Some might be setting up in sound early-stage bases. Further, others already might have broken out and are getting support at their 10-week moving lines for the first time. And a few might be trading tightly near highs and are refusing to give up much ground. Avoid extended stocks that are too far past proper entry points.
A call option is a bullish bet on a stock. Put options are bearish bets. One call option contract gives the holder the right to buy 100 shares of a stock at a specified level, known as the strike price.
Once you've identified a bullish setup in the earnings calendar, check strike prices with your online trading platform, or at Cboe.com. Also, make sure the option is liquid with a relatively tight spread between the bid and ask.
Look for a strike price just above the underlying stock price — that's out of the money — and check the premium. Ideally, the premium should not exceed 4% of the underlying stock price at the time. In some cases, an in-the-money strike price is OK as long as the premium isn't too expensive.
Choose an expiration date that fits your risk objective. But keep in mind that time is money in the options market. Near-term expiration dates will have cheaper premiums than those further out. Buying time in the options market comes at a higher cost.
Jabil Option Trade
Jabil trades monthly options. When Jabil traded at around 133.25, a slightly out-of-the-money call option with a 135 strike price and a Dec. 20 expiration came with a premium of around $5.20 per contract. That was 3.9% of the underlying stock price at the time and right in line with the maximum 4% threshold of IBD's strategy.
Going out to the Jan. 17 expiration, the premium rose to around $6.30, or 4.7% of the stock price, a slightly pricier trade. But there's also more time for the trade to work.
One contract gave the holder the right to buy 100 shares of Jabil at 135 per share. The most that could be lost was $520 — the amount paid for the 100-share contract. To break even, Jabil would need to rise to 140.20, factoring in the premium paid.
The expected move in the options market for Jabil, based on the at-the-money strike price of 130, was about 12 points up or down. This was determined by adding the at-the-money call premium to the put premium for the Dec. 20 contract, the expiration nearest the earnings report.
Follow Ken Shreve on X/Twitter @IBD_KShreve for more stock market analysis and insight.
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