Oct. 2, 2021
I like to think about how to come out the purchase plan.
4 days ago
Anybody care to weigh in with your price projections for APA for: 1) Feb/March 2022; 2) November 2022, and; 3) 2023??
IMO - APA is "one year behind" some other O&G E&P's - I also have positions in COP, DVN, PXD - principally due to current debt load prohibiting them from enacting share-holder returns (buybacks and/or dividends) comparable to the aforementioned. Even assuming reasonable retracement in current commodity prices from current levels (i.e. $70 WTI) - even without assigning potential future value to Egypt and/or Suriname!! - APA should be able to pay down the lion's share of their existing debt by . . . this time next year?? . . . thereby positioning them to proceed with returns to shareholders that are more comparable with some of the aforementioned, and as a result be valued by the market more comparably (whether you measure it by a pretty standard metric like PE, or price-to-EBITDA). To me, APA remains a "show me" story to most analysts, keeping them from increasing their TP beyond pennies at a time; once APA EXECUTES what they SHOULD be able to do (earnings; paying down debt) for a couple of consecutive quarters, don't be surprised to see those $27 target prices increased dramatically. How's that for "pumping"? :-D
At current share prices, I am NOT selling ANY of my COP, DVN or PXD, BUT I'm likewise not buying more, WHEREAS I AM considering buying more APA (to me, APA has much greater potential for upside in share price). My November 2022 APA price projection - $42; my 2023 APA price projection - $48+.
So . . . feel free to tell me that I'm dreaming.
IMO - APA is "one year behind" some other O&G E&P's - I also have positions in COP, DVN, PXD - principally due to current debt load prohibiting them from enacting share-holder returns (buybacks and/or dividends) comparable to the aforementioned. Even assuming reasonable retracement in current commodity prices from current levels (i.e. $70 WTI) - even without assigning potential future value to Egypt and/or Suriname!! - APA should be able to pay down the lion's share of their existing debt by . . . this time next year?? . . . thereby positioning them to proceed with returns to shareholders that are more comparable with some of the aforementioned, and as a result be valued by the market more comparably (whether you measure it by a pretty standard metric like PE, or price-to-EBITDA). To me, APA remains a "show me" story to most analysts, keeping them from increasing their TP beyond pennies at a time; once APA EXECUTES what they SHOULD be able to do (earnings; paying down debt) for a couple of consecutive quarters, don't be surprised to see those $27 target prices increased dramatically. How's that for "pumping"? :-D
At current share prices, I am NOT selling ANY of my COP, DVN or PXD, BUT I'm likewise not buying more, WHEREAS I AM considering buying more APA (to me, APA has much greater potential for upside in share price). My November 2022 APA price projection - $42; my 2023 APA price projection - $48+.
So . . . feel free to tell me that I'm dreaming.
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