OVV.TO stock: Best research blog in May 2020 | Time in the market not time the market

 May 17, 2022

I just could not believe that I did best research on OVV.TO stock, what I missed was to invest $10,000 Canadian dollars around $5/ share in May 2020, and then hold it for another two years. 

OVV stock

OVV.TO stock first dropped 97% to $3.60 / share in CAD in March, 2020, and then went up 200% in less than two months. I did purchase 100 shares of OVV.TO stock. 

Now OVV.TO stock is over $50 CAD dollars, which has 2000% return. 

I just could not believe that I did not make decision to follow up with OVV.TO stock, and ask a few more questions and learn more by investing more dollars. 

Investing is not to pursue short term return, it is to stay in the market once OVV.TO stock is found to be so valuable, and then invest 10% of my capital dollars. $10,000 dollars and then stay in the market for another two years. 

Here is the link of OVV.TO stock research blogs. 

Best research blog is this one. I also copy the content in the following. I just could not believe that I was so afraid to take some risk and stay in the market to hold more shares of OVV.TO. 

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Business plan: Work on $10,000 dollar purchase on OVV.TO stock

May 4, 2020

Introduction

I like to be a good stock research, and I like to look into how to purchase $10,000 dollar OVV.TO stock and also OVV stock in Ameritrade.com, and see if I can make some profit in next two to three years.

Everything about OVV.TO

I just found that blackrock.com had purchase of OVV.TO stock on March 30, 2020 through the web page:

2020-05-01
Form 13F
Purchased Date
Investor BlackRock Inc
Shares    1,264,546
CurrentValue (x$1000)  3,413

purchased price 3413000/1264546 = 2.70 US dollars = 3.50

But I only purchased 100 shares, price 3.70 Canadian dollars on March 27, 2020

I like to see if I can invest on this OVV.TO stock and see if I can invest $10,000 dollars, and then get something back as return.

It is not easy for me to manage the risk. How many things I should check and also how long I should time the market to get in and also get out.

Follow up

May 17, 2022

Here is Yahoo -> Finance -> Portfolio 

How good I am a researcher? | How good I am eager to make money in 54 year old? | What is poverty mindset? | My stock purchase review

March 20, 2021

Introduction

It is hard for me to understand how important it is my health. The value of health is so important, and I always worry about poverty and struggle to make good decision. I like to talk about $100,000 dollars my whole asset in cash and OVV.TO stock 97% price drop on march 27, 2020 and 500% rebound in less than 2 months. 

How good I am a researcher?

I could not find any issue related to my research on investment. I was too lazy and then spent whole 12 months after may 2019 to work on passive investment. After March 2020 stock market crash, I started again my first purchase on OVV.TO 300 shares. 

I just could not believe that my research was slow, I did not go back to try all kinds of ideas to invest and learn all businesses. It is hard for me to understand myself since I never image that I can be a millionaire, and then I have financial freedom to own a lot of things in my life. 

How good I am eager to make money in 54 year old? 

I do not know that I started to categorize myself to save one dollar in my grocery shopping. I am so happy to drive old used 21 year old Honda accord purchased in 2015. I did not seek so many ideas to make money. I just spent 12 months to work on research, weight control from 2016 to 2018, tennis sport research, and then I tried so hard to put together more than 500 hours to play tennis sports. 

I never challenge myself if I should seek ways to make more money. I can read very well, and I can use so many resources such as TFSA - tax free account in Canada. I only realized that I can have the account until 2019, TFSA started from 2016. 

I tried to be a nice person with Christian belief. But I did not do fully research to live a full life. I am happy to have a job, a small bedroom I can afford to rent. I have a two-bedroom condo for rent in Florida, and I only asked lowest price in the market price. 

My purchase of OVV.TO stock - price 97% drop - March 2020

Follow up 

March 25, 2021

After 12 month investment on stock market, I learned that I should have invested on OVV.TO at price $3.70 at least 10,000 shares since OVV.TO price dropped 97%, and then see what will happen next two months. 

I do believe that any unreasonable price drop like 97% on OVV.TO stock price definitely brought chance to make a fortune for a person to work on good research, good experience to invest on stocks consistently. I was sad to see that I was lack of wisdom and courage to invest even $10,000 Canadian dollars on OVV.TO on March 27, 2020. 

OVV.TO 100 share investor - Naive Canadian investor Julia

April 10, 2020

Introduction

It is so interesting for me to do research and I do not know what stocks I will purchase until I noticed that I purchased 100 share OVV.TO and the market change is up over 60%. I need to read the statements and look into what industry OVV.TO is up to.

Case study

I have to spend 10 to 20 minutes to read about OVV.TO stock. Questrade.com has a nice feature for me to look into the company and volume/ price day by day.

A good investor should read ...

I copied the news from Questrade.com dated March 9, 2020.

DENVER, March 9, 2020 /PRNewswire/ - Ovintiv Inc. ((NYSE, TSX:OVV) today provided additional information related to its strong capital structure and liquidity. In addition, the Company has great flexibility to quickly adapt operations to changing market conditions.

"In addition to our liquidity, we have substantial operational flexibility and a track record of driving cost reductions across the business," said CEO Doug Suttles. "We will be reducing our near-term capital spending to ensure we maintain free cash neutrality in the current market conditions. When combined with cost savings, we are confident that we can do this while maintaining the scale of our business."

Balance Sheet & Liquidity:

• $4 billion credit facilities recently renewed through July 2024. No reserve-based, cash flow, EBITDA lending covenants or minimum credit rating requirement. The facilities are based on book value only (not market capitalization) with a maximum ratio of 60% debt-to-adjusted capitalization (at year-end 2019, ratio was 28%). The capitalization calculation adjustment includes a fixed $7.7 billion add back to capitalization. Full terms can be found as an exhibit to the Company's Form 10-K.
  
• Current liquidity is approximately $3.5 billion, which represents the $4 billion credit facilities plus cash-on-hand, less the current commercial paper balance.
  
• OVV is currently rated investment grade at BBB.
  
• Approximately 80% of total long-term debt is due in 2024 or later with a weighted average bond maturity of approximately 10 years.
  
• The Company has significant flexibility to manage the late 2021 and 2022 maturities, including the use of the credit facilities.

Actionable Items

Based on my research, now OVV.TO is better than Ford in terms of credit rating. In other words, OVV.TO is BBB, but Ford is below BBB which is high yield bond.

My biggest concern is if OVV.TO will go bankrupt or not. Since 2 billion credit is secure before 2024, I am sure that I will not lose all the value of initial investment.

Otherwise it is ok for me to wait a few years to come back to $10 to $15.00 dollars. I am investing for my retirement and hopefully I can learn better and have more experience as an investor later on.

TFSA: Why I was afraid to invest $40,000 dollars into OVV.TO after 90% loss starting from March 27, 2020

May 24, 2020

Introduction

It takes wisdom and courage to build wealth and grow rich. I work very hard to learn personal finance, and then move my fund back to stock market in my TFSA account; I never think about investing $40,000 dollars in MY TFSA account into OVV.TO stock starting from March 27, 2020 after three circuit break, 90% stock loss of value, instead I just purchased 100 share at price $3.70 dollars, and nothing afterward in 2 months. Now the price went up more than 200%. I like to write a short research why I am afraid to take risk. 

A short research

First of all, I have never thought about purchase of any oil stock. I have to live in Canada 10 years, I never think about investing on Canada oil stocks. I do not know the industry very well.

I like to put together 10 things I miss in 12 month training and study from May 2019 to March 2020.

1. I never do any day trading and just stay as a long term investor. This is wrong for getting experience, learn and research how day trading works; 
2. I need to simulate stock market bear market crash, and then learn how to develop good sound judgement on investment from gambling;
3. How to tolerate calculated risk of speculating? Coronavirus and whole thing, I should spend time to think about more carefully;
4. I need to train myself with more drills in stock market. 
5. I should think big, and take high risk bet since I have to get used to live frugal life. 
6. High risk and high return, I should give it a try. I need to trust my instinct and my research. 

Yahoo finance -> My portfolio -> My holdings

Questrade.com - positions

Actionable Items

Fear and greed is two biggest topic as an investor on stock market. I like to explore more carefully based on my Christian belief, math education, talent programming experience. I like to document the journey, and learn the knowledge is power. I need to learn how to turn the knowledge to my wealth. 

Also I have Ameritrade.com key largo portfolio. I should also take some risk to purchase OVV stock in US stock market as well.

It is hard for me to save $75,000 Canadian dollars, and it takes me 10 years to save them. I am 53 year old. So I have to be careful as an investor.

May 24, 2020

I was too happy to see $5000 dollar recovery in less than a week on March 27,2020. I still had $4000 dollar loss, so I had some VAB.TO bond and then I like to celebrate the recovery, and I remembered the article I read with huge loss, so I went through the list, found 5 Canadian stocks to purchase.

What I should think about is the return. The downside risk is very small, and think about more carefully about 90% loss, if it goes back to half, then it is already 500%. When I can expect the opportunity to happen, this is rare for oil industry, a business with 30 billion dollars capital in the market. Big drop in less than two weeks.

Be prepared to the opportunity. One of 200,000 dollars opportunity with 10 years savings 40,000 Canadian dollars, with only 500% return in short few months.

June 2, 2020

I did some research and learned that OVV.TO related company was removed from medium capital index fund, and I guessed that would contribute more than 90% loss, since index fund unloaded OVV.TO, and also institutional buyers sold them as well.

Case study: Why I fail to make over $20,000 Canada dollars gains in my TFSA account?

May 23, 2020

Introduction

It is exciting journey to be a long term investor, went through market swing again in 2020. I was so nervous and went through so many emotions. One time I remembered to tell me inside my head, do not do anything not taught in my research, just pretend to know nothing. Play by rules learned. I like to write a short report called why I fail to make over $20,000 Canada dollars gains in my TFSA account. 

Case study 

What if I can make over $20,000 Canada dollars gains in my TFSA account through market swings from SPX 3300 to 2200 and then 2900. I came cross one chance to purchase Canada oil stocks on March 27, 2020. I need to learn the art to design the project, how high my target is to achieve in gains, and what risk I have. 

Here are highlights I can look into later. I do believe that I should be confident to come out the plan to make $20,000 dollars, and then go for the chance. 

1. I did research those big companies with big losses, OVV.TO stock had loss over 90%;
2. I was more reactive, thankfulness to my VFV.TO ETF and VDU.TO ETF $5000 recover in 3 business day;
3. I just naively like to play $2000 dollars to invest from those $5,000 dollar recover.
4. I should allow myself to be a creative thinker; explore more carefully, how to make money from the bet;
5. I can live with $10000 dollar less in asset, but it is exciting to see that I can grasp the opportunity to double or triple the money in short time range. Why not take a risk? OVV.TO stock has over 90% loss.
6. I must estimate the possible return and design the purchase plan.
7. I always have some emotional problems. I like to share my progress on WeChat groups, but I should understand that it is my business. It is my creative thinking to help me create wealth. There is nothing wrong with it. 
8. I need to build a ritual to take it more seriously when I make stock purchases.  

I should take a loss of $1000 dollars to sell VAB.TO bond position, and then purchase OVV.TO stocks using those $10,000 dollars. Just think like an institutional investor. Find all the money I can find to make the purchase. 

Follow up 

June 6, 2020
Do not look back. There is another 100% return from May 23 to June 6, 2020. The rise is much faster since large institutions invested in huge shares. I still have the link, but I stopped searching daily for what those institutions are.

Also, I need to allow myself to take some risk, do not think about stock with 90% loss will go down. Instead, I find another ten stocks like OVV also went up 100% in the first month; diversify my investment into four or five of those stocks.

Stock research: If I want to be a millionaire in Canada?

June 7, 2020

Introduction

I like to do a short research about the topic called stock research, "If I want to be a millionaire in Canada?". 

My short research

I have a stable job last 10 years, and then first time in my life I can have stable job last 10 years, never worry about job change too much, and enjoy to hold cash as investment in stock market over $100,000 dollars, including $28,000 US dollars in my US retirement account, and also $77,000 dollars in market value on June 7, 2020. 

How can I want to be a millionaire in Canada?

It is very tough for me since I find out the investment group in any form is a different crowd. They are not Christian group, pray together; they are not business group, they can easy form the business relationship. Also there are more. 

I came cross this severe allergy third year, and my employer talked about twice that I have to learn how to take care of it. I focused on medication using strong medicine anti-hestamine, but I doubted that the effect related to my mood, my weight, and my decision making process. 

It is my next research topic related to this medicine. I like to have relax Sunday life back, attend the church, enjoy the laugh and learning, and big audience to get together with other people. 

I did purchase OVV.TO stock on March 27, 2020 100 share $3.7, and kept it, after two months, it is four times more. I did not and was afraid to add more money, even a small amount $5,000 or $10,000 dollars next two months, I was afraid so many things. Job I worked on, allergy I learned to cope with, the nervousness I brought to the office, and all other things related to my relatives, the curse from my young sister and I tried to fight against prejudice from all my siblings. 

I have $86,000 dollars in the stock market from March 27, 2020, and also more on bank accounts. But I was not ready to move myself outside the comfortable zone. I could not find a person to pray together, and talk about in detail 10 to 15 minutes about the positions I hold. 

I am ashamed to bring myself into this situation, isolation and disconnect to others who are good and supportive. 

I did think about hiring a profession SJTU young alumni to review my portfolio with me $1 dollar a minute. I did not take action on April 20, 2020 after consultation with the wechat group JTU. 

Here are highlights:

1. Good research to find right time right stocks like OVV.TO 90% loss;
2. Understand the market risk and also willing to take risk - OVV may go bankrupt, same as other distress stocks and those companies which went out index fund and challenging survival. 
3. Good health, keep an eye on medication like anti-hestimine, if it will affect my mood, decision making; 
4. Understand that even if my positions went down over $10,000 dollars, that is the time to move bond fund to purchase those distressed stocks; It is the same as hard work like working in labor work, restaurant, and other places; 
5. I can take some risk, frugal and minimalism as I can last 12 months, risk $20,000 to $30,000 dollars to purchase those stocks. 
6. Go back to regular Sunday worship service, relax my nerve and enjoy the life;
7. Investment is not so tough and I do not need to be market genius, and follow so many CNBC, yahoo finance articles. 
8. Make a small move to double the money in $10,000 in a few distressed stocks, build muscle money. 
9. Do not care too much about market value when bear market, check positions I have;
10. Do not time the market and try to be market genius, hold on long term partnership with those businesses in the world. 

I only have positions with gains $2,600 dollars in $64,000 dollars investment on TFSA after over 12 months. The journey is tough and I will try to take breaks and slow down. 

Millionaire dream is possible. Keep reaching out to help others, learn investment basics, and help others. Form a good community and keep working hard. 

References:

Thanks all those business brand names: Charles Schwab, Questrade, Yahoo finance, Intuit mint, Ameritrade, Personal capital, Sharesight

Charles Schwab

Questrade.com

Intuit
Mint app

Sharesight

Yahoo finance

OVV.TO talk - Think like an institution investor Blackstone

May 24, 2020

Introduction

It is controversial topic related to build good investment habit, choose distressed stock after market crash with three circuit break. I like to do a short research how to draw a line between gambling and speculation after OVV.TO dropped 90% price on March 27, 2020. I should learn how to identify the business opportunity from gambling instinct.

Blackstone as a buyer of OVV.TO

Blackstone made purchase over 1 million share of OVV.TO around March 27, 2020 as well. If I invest $40,000 using my TFSA account fund, I do not think that my purchase will be sorted of gambling behavior.

Buy low and sell high, it is taking some risk before everything is clear if OVV.TO deserves to have over 90% loss, from 30 billion capital business to 3 billion dollars business. We all know that all business are inflated after 10  year bull market.

Capitalism is also a big issue, USA government tried to get in and do not like to see market has free fall, and let things go as worse as is.

Business plan: Work on $10,000 dollar purchase on OVV.TO stock

May 4, 2020

Introduction

I like to be a good stock research, and I like to look into how to purchase $10,000 dollar OVV.TO stock and also OVV stock in Ameritrade.com, and see if I can make some profit in next two to three years.

Everything about OVV.TO

I just found that blackrock.com had purchase of OVV.TO stock on March 30, 2020 through the web page:

2020-05-01
Form 13F
Purchased Date
Investor BlackRock Inc
Shares    1,264,546
CurrentValue (x$1000)  3,413

purchased price 3413000/1264546 = 2.70 US dollars = 3.50

But I only purchased 100 shares, price 3.70 Canadian dollars on March 27, 2020

I like to see if I can invest on this OVV.TO stock and see if I can invest $10,000 dollars, and then get something back as return.

It is not easy for me to manage the risk. How many things I should check and also how long I should time the market to get in and also get out.

OVV.TO stock: yahoo finance -> My conversation

May 26, 2020

Introduction

It is so interesting for me to be a stock holder. I start to read a lot of conversation from Yahoo finance. I need to learn more terms about Canada stock market. I wish that I purchase 10,000 shares on March 27, 2020, instead of 100 shares. 

Take notes 

I like to highlight things I should look into. 

1. 70 million shares will need to be mandatorily purchased by index funds 
2. OVV.TO was removed from TSX60 in January -> figure out capital size for TSX60
3. 2.3 billion for S&P 400 mid cap 
4. S & P 600 

Potential 70 million shares will need to be mandatorily purchased by index funds starting some time next month. Automatic back to 20 next month onwards just like it dropped when removed from TSX60 in Jan....enjoy the ride

Guidelines

• 

  2 days ago

  Yep what @fossilfuel said regarding conditions. It’s a time factor that people forget, most, of not all, rebalance Quarterly, so the absolute soonest I think would be Q2
• 

  3 days ago

  @Jag they are already eligible for all of the Russel and S&P indices...now just the detail o which one based on market cap. Now the market cap requirements are not carved in stone and subject to change. OVV is close to $2.3B requirement for S&P400 mid cap which is going to be amazing...worst case S&P600 but then S&P would have to upgrade them if they got in 600 and they prefer to have stable indices all thought difficult. Same way Russell..done deal per citi, and many more.
  You can read the details on each index requirement on S&P and Russell websites.
• 

  3 days ago

  Again, there are numerous conditions for listing onto these US indexes. OVV is not near to meeting them yet, which means more time required to hit target market cap. I would think at least 3 months if market conditions hold steady.
• 

  3 days ago

  @FossilFuel Best post on the entire board, I am long time investor in this company. Thanks for your informative post.
• 

  3 days ago

  @FossilFuel The crash when they redomociled made sense as Canadian funds would have had to sell off, is my understanding due to foreign investment rules? Wasn't clear on the process from the other end i.e. when would Ovintiv be available for purchase by the US funds. Almost got spooked by this board into selling when the price crashed but held on and bought some more. Break even is down to $19 CDN, might actually see it happen...
• 

  3 days ago

  @Dan Agree..actually my post states a wti hh assumption with my price forecast. I never give ovv price forecast without commodity assumption. Also more md-term view my preference i.e. 21/22. Both short term and long term I am not smart enough to forecast. But I do think we should see upward pressure in June due to indices and all else remaining equal.
• 

  3 days ago

  @Jim there was some serious overblown concern that ovv would default. Just terrible IB’s who didn’t do their homework. Glad to see other people around here have read all the quarterlies and powerpoints @fossilfuel I think we’ll be closer to $13-$16 than $20+ Until oil hits $50 or gas over $2.50 but your numbers are very plausible
• 

  4 days ago

  @FossilFuel Thanks for explanations.
  It is hard to believe what they did.They hurt also OVV too much and in worst time.In some days that Shorts were shorting millions of shares they started to sell their stakes.They started to do that around 10 $ but they sold most of their shares around 3-4$.Their last transaction was for 2.7USD.I also think was not smart decision.On the time I asked from one of the Causeway's investor relations for their action.They replied me for "changing in Ovintiv's fundamentals".
• 

  4 days ago

  @Jim yeah a tragedy...not just causeway also Wellington dumped OVV, total about 50 million shares and inst holdings at historic lows...they may be kicking themselves by not being patient enough. causeway got in in 2016 I think at over 45. SO they broke the bank and must have lost everything...they tried to average down but did not work. I think they just gave up + corona and just took the hit and declare as losses next year. I dont think they were too smart...who sells when you have lost everything...sell before or if you are that low then might as well hold on unless ofsettingcapital gains. Also Wellington would have been even higher cause they were NFX...like I am sure well above 50. Good thing is Dodge&Cox Cox got more, Fidelity is in andTrowe is in....I think it will sort itself out next month.
• 

  4 days ago

  @ FossilFuel
  I am wondering why some institutions sold their shares.do you think they don't know that OVV possibly will jump to over 20$ or even more.