Wednesday, November 20, 2024

直播间“喊麦”荐股不可信

 

直播间“喊麦”荐股不可信

2024-11-20 07:07 来源:证券日报

  朱宝琛

  近期,一些直播平台上的股票直播间活跃起来。在直播过程中,主播会从多个角度对当天的股市进行分析,回答评论区的问题,有的甚至还会推荐股票。往往主播一声令下,直播间的追随者们就立即买入同一只股票,场面甚至可以用“火爆”来形容。

  笔者认为,这种看似高效的行为,实则暗藏风险,是不可取的。对此,笔者有三点思考。

  第一,在直播间里,主播打着“免费讲解”的旗号,提供实时市场预测及投资建议,那么,这些主播是否都是持证上岗?

  根据相关规定,任何个人或机构未经许可不得从事证券投资咨询业务,更不能以推荐股票的形式进行非法获利。也就是说,持证上岗,是从事投顾业务最基本的条件。然而,通过查看一些主播的账号可以发现,有些并没有任何相关资格认证,直播页面也没有相关的证券投顾执业编号。

  未取得资质就从事相关活动,是会受到处罚的。日前,福建福州市鼓楼区人民法院通报了一起无资质荐股牟利的典型案例:被告人吴某某因犯非法经营罪,被判处有期徒刑24个月,并处罚金1300万元。

  在此也提醒那些在直播间“喊麦”的主播,无证从事投顾活动,对这种行为监管部门一定会严监管、出重拳,予以全链条打击。

  第二,这些主播推荐的股票真的能暴涨吗?跟着他们炒股一定能获利?

  其实,仔细观察不难发现,通过直播平台推荐股票,与之前通过QQ群、微信群等荐股如出一辙,其最终目的只有一个:赚钱。

  这里面有两种形式:其一,吸引观众关注并引导他们购买课程或软件,形成“平台吸粉—引流拉群—收费荐股”的产业链,从中谋取利益;其二,主播可能已经提前买入所推荐的股票,利用投资者跟风炒作的“羊群效应”趁机拉高股价卖出,这与此前的“股市黑嘴”类似。

  投资者如果轻易相信主播甚至跟风买入,最终受损失的还将是自己。对投资者而言,最有效的规避风险的手段,就是树立正确的投资理念,不要轻易相信会有“天上掉馅饼”的好事。

  第三,作为投顾“正规军”的持牌机构,应如何用好新媒体的传播速度及力度,将一些缺乏甄别能力的中小投资者转变为真正理解且信任买方投顾的长期投资者?

  作为持牌机构,最基本的合规要求是在直播中不能提及个股。因此,这比那些直接喊股票代码或个股名称的主播要晦涩很多,往往也难以获得投资者“芳心”。面对这一情况,投顾们要证明自身实力,获得投资者信任,创新服务方式,用不同的方式介绍复杂多元的投资组合、产品,为客户提供更全面的资产配置和解决方案,稳步提升资产配置能力。

  总之,面对直播间“喊麦”式的荐股行为,投资者需要冷静、理性面对,不要被主播的热情所迷惑,更不要轻信所谓的“大师”荐股、跟风买入。

 

Chitra Venkatramani | Google | Coinbase

 About

I am an accomplished technologist and organizational leader with 20+ years of experience in driving research, product development and business outcomes * Built and led global, layered cross-functional organizations, successfully delivering products and business outcomes for Google Ads and broader Google, working across multiple stakeholders * Delivered infrastructure to accelerate high-quality development of Google Ads products with 4x improvement in release velocity, 50% reduction in developer friction and ~100% automation in testing/quality. * Own the Google Integration Testing GA product as an automated qualification platform for production systems * Former Distinguished Engineer at IBM * Led research and platform development to speed up delivery of industry-vertical AI/ML IBM Watson conversational applications * Led research, development and delivery of IBM Streams Runtime GA product through multiple releases. IBM Streams is a premier streaming analytics engine, developed as a joint project between the U.S. government and IBM Research. * Delivered multiple first-of-a-kind outcomes with enterprise customers in Finance, Defense, Insurance, Healthcare * 30+ publications and patents in media streaming, distributed computing I am a seasoned technologist and organizational leader, excited about working with talented teams at the intersection of research/innovation and product-development in the context of customer outcomes. I have a passion for solving ambiguous, real-world problems and inspiring teams to join me in the journey. I have been fortunate to lead strong teams of engineers and managers, painting a vision and driving execution. At Google and at IBM I have blended a bottom-up culture with a top-down vision successfully, leading to the development of innovative products and solutions.
  • Top skills

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Sabre (NASDAQ:SABR) Earns Underperform Rating from Sanford C. Bernstein

 

Sabre (NASDAQ:SABR) Earns Underperform Rating from Sanford C. Bernstein

Bernstein | SABR rating update | Underweight

Bernstein reduces Sabre stock outlook, citing cyclical risks and strained financial position

Published 2024-11-19, 04:36 a/m

 On Tuesday, Sabre (NASDAQ:SABR) Corporation (NASDAQ:SABR) saw its stock rating downgraded by Bernstein from Market Perform to Underperform, with a new price target set at $3.00.

The firm cited several reasons for the negative outlook, including the company's heavy reliance on the slowing Global Distribution System (GDS) business, which represents approximately 70% of its revenues. Sabre's geographic focus on North America, a region experiencing rapid technological changes, is also expected to pose challenges for the company's volume growth and unit economics.

Sabre's Air IT business, which is largely dependent on a small number of major customers, with American airlines accounting for about 35% of its volumes, has faced significant losses in recent years. The losses include contracts with Etihad, Hawaiian, ITA, and Vietnam Airlines. Compared to its competitor Amadeus (BME:AMA), Sabre invests roughly one-third in product development, which is anticipated to make it difficult for the company to close the product gap.

The firm also highlighted concerns regarding Sabre's financial health, noting that the company's balance sheet is under strain. The interest coverage ratio was less than 1x in 2023, and it is projected to be close to 1x in 2024, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest.

Despite efforts to improve earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) through cost restructuring and reducing headcount, Bernstein remains cautious. They suggest that the next industry downturn could occur before Sabre successfully addresses its significant net debt, which exceeds $4 billion.

In other recent news, Sabre Corporation reported a positive Q3 2024 performance and an optimistic outlook for the future. The company's Q3 earnings call revealed a 3% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $765 million. Distribution revenue and Hospitality Solutions revenue saw increases of 5% and 7% respectively. The company's Adjusted EBITDA for the same quarter stood at $131 million, marking a 19% increase from the previous year.

Sabre also shared its projections for Q4 2024, expecting revenue of approximately $715 million and adjusted EBITDA of around $115 million. The company's full-year 2024 revenue is anticipated to be about $3.03 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $515 million. Furthermore, Sabre aims to achieve over $700 million in adjusted EBITDA and more than $200 million in free cash flow by 2025.

Despite a decline in IT Solutions revenue, the company maintains a positive outlook, focusing on strategic investments and cost management to enhance shareholder value. With consistent booking trends and an expected increase in revenue per booking in Q4, Sabre remains confident in its financial trajectory.

InvestingPro Insights

Recent InvestingPro data provides additional context to Bernstein's downgrade of Sabre Corporation (NASDAQ:SABR). The company's market capitalization stands at $1.46 billion, reflecting its current market position. Despite Sabre's challenges, it maintains impressive gross profit margins of 59.26% for the last twelve months as of Q3 2023, which aligns with one of the InvestingPro Tips highlighting the company's strong gross profit margins.

However, the financial strain mentioned by Bernstein is evident in other metrics. Sabre's P/E ratio is negative at -7.97, indicating that the company is not currently profitable, a point reinforced by another InvestingPro Tip. The company's significant debt burden, as noted in the article, is also flagged as a key concern in the InvestingPro Tips.

On a more positive note, Sabre has shown a strong return over the last three months, with a price total return of 26.76%. This recent performance suggests that despite the challenges outlined, some investors may see potential in the company's efforts to restructure and improve its financial position.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 6 additional tips for Sabre Corporation, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

《腓立比书》2章3节 | 谦卑的心

 基督徒常说:「要谦卑,谦卑,再谦卑…」到底什么是谦卑?


一本书中这样提到:「跟一个『非常有能力』,但『没有谦卑』的人一起工作时,他会让你觉得—『他』是个非常了不起的人,『他』成就非凡,『他』非常重要!然而,当你和另一位『非常有能力』,且『非常谦卑』的人工作时,他会让你觉得—『你』是个非常有价值的人,『你』是个非常重要的人,『你』将来一定能成就美好事物!」

《圣经》哥林多前书1章8节提到:「我们晓得我们都有知识,但知识叫人自高自大,唯有爱心能造就人」。

《腓立比书》2章3节也说:「做任何事都不要出于争竞,也不可出于虚荣,而要以谦卑的心,各人看别人比自己强。」


为什么我们会「骄傲」?因为我们常有「很主观的想法」或「固执的偏见」。C.S. Lewis曾表示:「当别人纠正你时,你有多『生气』代表你有多骄傲。」同样的,你有多「受伤」,也代表你有多骄傲。这两者的前题,都认定自己很好、做很多、很属灵。因此当别人纠正我们时,难免心理会「受伤或生气」,甚至认为「我这么好,你凭什么说我…」

人非圣贤,难免会有「骄傲」的时候,但别让骄傲变成一种「慢性病」。愿我们每天都能自身提醒:「做一个『谦卑』的人!」

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator | MFI | OBV

 AI Overview

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is often compared to other indicators that monitor momentum and money flow, such as the Money Flow Index (MFI) and On Balance Volume (OBV): 
  • Money Flow Index (MFI)
    Similar to CMF, MFI uses price and volume data to assess market sentiment. However, the calculation methods and interpretation differ. MFI is volume-weighted, while CMF compares the closing price to the high and low prices. MFI readings range from 0 to 100, while CMF readings range from -1 to 1. 
  • On Balance Volume (OBV)
    A momentum indicator that uses volume to forecast price changes. OBV is based on how institutional and retail investors impact trading volume and market prices. 
CMF is a money flow oscillator that works best when combined with other tools and analysis. It's often used on daily charts, but can also be used on intraday charts. The default CMF period is 21 days, but traders can use multiples of this number. 

Bernstein analyst Alex Irving | SABR stock

 Bernstein analyst Alex Irving downgraded Sabre (SABR) to Underperform from Market Perform with an unchanged price target of $3. The recent increase in the share price is not matched by any changes in the company’s financial outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says rising government bond yields continue to present challenges to Sabre’s finance costs over the medium term.

Alex Irving, CFA | Head of European Transport Equity Research at Bernstein

 Senior Equity Research Analyst, European Transport

Senior Equity Research Analyst, European Transport
AB BernsteinOct 2017 to Present · 7 yrs 2 mosLondon, United Kingdom