how to know that ORCL stock already bottomed out and then rebound started already? 30 minutes SMC showed retracement did not break into previous FVG gap.

 how to know that ORCL stock already bottomed out and then rebound started already? 30 minutes SMC showed retracement did not break into previous FVG gap.

To confirm if ORCL has bottomed and a reversal has started, watch for a Change of Character (ChoCh) on the 30-minute to 1-hour timeframes and the confirmation of a Breakaway Gap. Price respecting—rather than breaking—an FVG shows strong momentum, but broader trend alignment is also needed to confirm a sustained rebound. [1, 2, 3, 4]

For tips on how to properly confirm trend reversals and spot breakaway gaps in SMC:

1. Confirm the "Breakaway Gap" and "Order Flow"

The Wick vs. Body Rule: When the retracement tests a Fair Value Gap (FVG), watch how candles interact with the gap. As noted by TikTok, a “wick candle close after testing the gap indicates strong rejection”. If the 30m candles only wick into the gap but bodies close cleanly above it, it is likely a breakaway gap. [1, 2]
No Fill: If the market refuses to close into the previous gap, it signifies that institutional buyers stepped in early to defend a specific Order Block. [1, 2]

2. Verify with a Change of Character (ChoCh)

Wait for the asset to break a recent minor swing high. In SMC, this “ChoCh occurs when price fails to maintain the trend and breaks the opposite structural point”, which confirms the momentum shift. [1]
The rebound is more likely to be a genuine reversal rather than just a retracement if a clear Break of Structure (BoS) occurs on the upside. [1]

3. Broaden the Perspective (Multi-timeframe Analysis)

Shift your view to the higher time frames, such as the 1-hour or 4-hour charts, to make sure this SMC pattern aligns with your directional bias.
Monitor if the price action has reached a higher time frame liquidity pool or demand zone. [1]

4. Monitor Stock-Specific Fundamentals

Market Re-rating: Because of heavy capital expenditures and cash-flow pressures associated with their data center builds, ORCL has been highly volatile. Ensure the rebound matches broad institutional appetite for enterprise and AI infrastructure. [1, 2, 3]
Macro Catalyst: Track technical levels on the major indices (SPY, QQQ) as individual tech stocks often require the broader market to provide tailwinds.