Sunday, September 6, 2020

90% of traders lose money... So how to be in the top 10%?

Here is the link.  

Go to ...->Open transcript - English automated generated

yes I got a great webinar called the

00:11
night have become part of the nine
00:12
percent and on nine to one percent
00:14
losing spread betting and you've got to
00:18
well there are so many things you would
00:21
need to do to become part of the nine
00:23
percent if it were that easy everyone
00:25
would be part of it and there's a lot of
00:26
intelligent people making a part of the
00:28
ninety-one percent and in fact you will
00:31
always vessel eight you'll be in the top
00:34
one and your occasion you'll be outside
00:35
the nine percent for what you do need to
00:37
do is you need to potentially decide on
00:40
a strategy that looks after all elements
00:43
of money management and we've discussed
00:45
the risk reward we've discussed losses
00:47
you've got to manage losses that keeps
00:49
you in the game you've got to make
00:51
you've got to believe you have a system
00:53
that'll make more than it gives back on
00:54
its winning it will win and will lose
00:57
all the time no one is ever going to
00:59
have a hundred percent so accept that
01:00
losses are part the game and manage that
01:03
become a systemic as possible in
01:05
determining what your setup is so the
01:09
mode can be reduced to logic the better
01:11
and the tighter and then you need to
01:16
stick to the system as systemically as
01:18
possible as well which most people are
01:20
incapable of with emotions particularly
01:22
after say three losses
01:23
you'll be snake bite fearful when after
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three wins you'll be piling on twice the
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size and that'll be the one that will
01:30
lose and give back all of those three
01:31
wins and some so that's we're focusing
01:35
on if you had to develop a black box
01:37
system is not a bad process for defining
01:41
your strategy and that which you find
01:45
interesting observing charts a lot of
01:47
observation a lot of drawing of charts
01:49
and a lot of use of patterns patterns
01:53
are probably the most powerful technical
01:55
analysis tool for me outside of the
01:58
larger trend our Theory some training
02:03
mistakes to avoid
02:06
most of most say trading mistakes made
02:08
by beginners even intermediates and
02:10
occasionally even advanced people when
02:12
they lose their heads is to do with
02:14
trade sizing so that they take a loss
02:18
too big there's nothing there's no
02:21
damage done in taking your managed loss
02:23
that's part of the game and being wrong
02:25
the problem is that recovery ladder when
02:28
you then emotionally negatively respond
02:31
to taking an already slightly bigger
02:33
loss so let's say you lose fifteen or
02:36
twenty percent and then you think damn I
02:38
want to get back to where I was so I
02:39
need to make 25 percent so I'll trade
02:41
bigger again I'm sure I'm right this
02:43
time you can't cope with the mental it's
02:47
like a mental cognizance dissonance
02:51
cognitive dissonance that makes you need
02:53
to get back to where you once were but
02:55
you're now seeing yourself as the lesser
02:57
self what as dictated by this balance
02:59
and that then pressurizes you into
03:01
trading bigger again on what looks like
03:04
a sure thing but now you punch-drunk
03:06
because you must find an opportunity
03:08
quickly and it's not a sure thing it's
03:10
the first thing you grab hold of that
03:13
best represents a possible trade so
03:15
you've been bastardizing your criteria
03:18
to grab hold of something that you
03:19
expect to leverage you back in to where
03:21
you once were this is a very big fatal
03:23
spiral because once again you're in over
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trade because you've got to make back
03:27
more to get back up and that's the
03:29
recovery ladder concept and boom that's
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that is probably the single most
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destructive that sees someone have a
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10,000 pound account reduced to you know
03:38
a few hundred or a thousand pound and
03:40
then virtually giving up realizing that
03:41
they've they've blown it sighs I
03:49
wouldn't say ninety one percent are in
03:51
that category they don't all blow their
03:53
accounts up from ten thousand pounds
03:54
down to nine but there aren't possibly
03:57
consistent with money management as a
03:59
whole and the sizing is one element of
04:02
money management don't forget I said
04:04
risk reward should be central to that as
04:07
well so they're taking trades that
04:08
aren't worth the squeeze the juices in
04:10
the worth the squeeze and the
04:12
probability of win rates they have
04:13
intestines what likelihood are they I
04:16
have of winning to tighter stop
04:18
something else I've mentioned
04:20
all of those things all fall under the
04:22
larger money management cluster and
04:25
those are all key so do you agree with
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this statement the only way to make
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money is slowly and steadily over time
04:33
not trading for 80 indices commodities
04:35
excessive is there a giant casino no I
04:40
wouldn't agree with that statement at
04:41
all those those underlying markets can
04:45
be traded profitably on a consistent
04:48
basis
04:48
there isn't an efficient markets
04:50
hypothesis that truly keeps everything
04:52
at the true value you anything that
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involves people will have reactions and
04:57
/ reactions and under reactions so no I
05:01
think you can I think I wouldn't be in
05:03
the game if I didn't feel that there was
05:05
an edge that could be taken
05:14
you

90% of traders lose money... So how to be in the top 10%? - 10:07 AM - 10:12 AM

 Here is the link. 

Patterns - name a few patterns - Google more 

Trade size - Google it, and find research topic on this one - trading 

fatal spiral - 

10,000 pound -> a few hundred or thousand 


Open transcript: 90% of traders lose money... So how to be in the top 10%?

I googled and then find Open Transcript menu item. 

Here is the link. 

Three losses - 

Three wins - 

Defining your strategy 

observe charts

Mistakes to avoid - trading size - loss too big 

Recovery ladder concept 

Size is part of money management - 

Two types of stop 

Money management 

true value - involve people - reactions - 



90% of traders lose money... So how to be in the top 10%? - 9:51 am - 9:56 am

 90% of traders lose money... So how to be in the top 10%?

 Here is the link. 

90% of traders lose money... http://www.financial-spread-betting.c... So how to be in the top 10%? Francis Hunt a technical analysis trader and coach comments. What are the bad habits to avoid? What are some trading mistakes to avoid? Is trading forex, indices and commodities a giant casino? Decide on a strategy that looks after all elements of money management. You've got to manage losses and you need to have a system that will make more money than it loses. Patterns are probably the most important technical analysis tool for me. If you've found this video useful, please click the like button and share it with your friends and remember to SUBSCRIBE to remain up-to-date!

My learning notes: 9:45 AM - 9:50 AM


Become 9% to win - not easy - a lot of intelligent people in 91%
system -
a back box system -
observe charts
trading mistakes - trade sizing - take a loss too big
recovery ladder - mental cognitive dissonance
trade big again -
possible
leverage back in -
single most destructive
money management - size of trade
win rates - likely of wining
underline market - consistent basis - hypothesis
reactions - an edge to be taken


90% of traders lose money... So how to be in the top 10%?

  90% of traders lose money... So how to be in the top 10%?

 Here is the link. 

90% of traders lose money... http://www.financial-spread-betting.c... So how to be in the top 10%? Francis Hunt a technical analysis trader and coach comments. What are the bad habits to avoid? What are some trading mistakes to avoid? Is trading forex, indices and commodities a giant casino? Decide on a strategy that looks after all elements of money management. You've got to manage losses and you need to have a system that will make more money than it loses. Patterns are probably the most important technical analysis tool for me. If you've found this video useful, please click the like button and share it with your friends and remember to SUBSCRIBE to remain up-to-date!

My learning notes: 9:45 AM - 9:50 AM


  1. Risk reward, manage loss, system you believe, more logic better;
  2. Blackbox system?
  3. Observe charts - used patterns - powerful analysis
  4. Trade mistakes to avoid
Beginner -> intermediate -> trade size - loss too big
For example, 15% loss, and then take big bet - mental cognitive dissonance
pressure -> big again -> punch drunk

Probability win rewards -?
large management - ?

giant casino - underline market - efficient - true value - reactions all over - edges to be taken

90% of traders lose money... So how to be in the top 10%?

 90% of traders lose money... So how to be in the top 10%?

 Here is the link. 

90% of traders lose money... http://www.financial-spread-betting.c... So how to be in the top 10%? Francis Hunt a technical analysis trader and coach comments. What are the bad habits to avoid? What are some trading mistakes to avoid? Is trading forex, indices and commodities a giant casino? Decide on a strategy that looks after all elements of money management. You've got to manage losses and you need to have a system that will make more money than it loses. Patterns are probably the most important technical analysis tool for me. If you've found this video useful, please click the like button and share it with your friends and remember to SUBSCRIBE to remain up-to-date!

My learning notes: 9:35 AM - 9:41 AM

  1. Manage your loss
  2. Accept loss is part of the game
  3. More logic, better
  4. Stick to system - three losses -> fear, three wins -> bet on big size
  5. Observe charts - used patterns - powerful analysis - Dow theory?
  6. Trading mistakes: beginner, intermediate - trade size - take loss too big
  7. Recover - negative emotion - 15% or 20%, trade big again, you can cope with mental cognitive - pressure
  8. punch - possible trade - grab - fatal spiral - recover concept
  9. For example:
  10. Consistent management as a whole - probability of win
  11. Two types of stop
  12. Only way is to build wealth slowly and steadly
  13. Trade value - reactions - would not be in the game
Actionable items:
Find some keywords to google.

90% of traders lose money... So how to be in the top 10%?

 Here is the link. 

90% of traders lose money... http://www.financial-spread-betting.c... So how to be in the top 10%? Francis Hunt a technical analysis trader and coach comments. What are the bad habits to avoid? What are some trading mistakes to avoid? Is trading forex, indices and commodities a giant casino? Decide on a strategy that looks after all elements of money management. You've got to manage losses and you need to have a system that will make more money than it loses. Patterns are probably the most important technical analysis tool for me. If you've found this video useful, please click the like button and share it with your friends and remember to SUBSCRIBE to remain up-to-date!

My learning notes:

  1. Take loss too big
  2. Manage the loss - recover, 15% or 20% - trade big again - mental - cognitive - pressure you - punch drive
  3. 10,000 -> a few thousand -> 91% -> money management -> take trades ->
  4. Two type of stops -
  5. Slowly and steadly - I do not agree - underline - game -



Why Most Investors Fail at Trading: Falling and Not Getting Back Up Again

Here is the link.

Do you think you can actually teach people how to trade? Corvin Codirla, ex hedge fund manager comments. Corvin as an ex fund manager do you have a good track record? Why did you leave the hedge fund industry? Working in a hedge fund you could potentially earn millions – so why did you go into education?

Yes and no. Yes, you can teach the fundamental principles and if you stick to it, it works out. No because its like teaching people how to setup a business - basic business principles like finding a product people want, the best place in terms of traffic - if its so simple why doesn't everyone setup business and make money? No, because there are kind of intricacies and its the same with trading. You can teach people the mechanics but at any point in time your emotions and mis-judgements come in. A lot of people who fail the first time don't get back up.

Take Profit Exit Trading Strategies and Ideas

 Here is the link. 

As such this video is about exit strategy ideas. The good ideas for getting out of your trades or investments. Generally, you will exit losing trades once it hits your stop loss so that's taken care of but what about the trades that are profitable - how do we set targets and how do we decide where to exit winning trades?

Broadly speaking: Ways to Exit a Profitable Trade: - Exit on weakness - if you are long, you would wait until the price retraces from highs and exit. So you would be setting a key level or pullback zone of say X pips... - Exit on strength - you are chugging along and then you get a strong move higher; you can exit in that without waiting for the retracement. - Orders near to support/resistance - this is probably the most common strategy that people use. - Moving average based trailing stop. You're in a market and your trade is chugging along and you use a moving average (say 20 period) which trails with the price as the market moves higher. This allows space for some noise. - Volatility based strategy - this uses ATR (Average True Range) - Time based exit - one common particularly with day traders.

My learning notes:

  1. Exit on weakness
  2. Exit on strength
  3. Orders near to support/resistance
  4. Moving average based trailing stop
  5. Volatility based on strategy
  6. Time based exit



What to Do if Price/Market Moves Against You Sharply!

 Here is the link. 

What to Do if Price Moves Against You Sharply! http://www.financial-spread-betting.c... PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO SO WE CAN DO MORE How to protect yourself from falling prices or adverse price movements. What if the market moves against you? What to do if the price moves against you sharply. Let's suppose you're in a trade and the price moves against you sharply - what do you do? In the perfect world we always have stops set at appropriate levels but mistakes happen. The point is we have to take some action. Let's first suppose the price spikes in your direction: - Pull up stop; lock in some of those gains. (but you don't want the stop too tight) - Check the news and see if something has come out. - Assess volume - Watch price behaviour How do you plan your risk management and money management after a loss? Let's suppose the price moves sharply against your position. Against - Take some action; just do something - don't just keep watching it without doing anything because you'll end up closing the position at the worst possible time. - Put in a stop to help you stop panicking. - Trim position; reduce the trade. - Close position

Actionable Items:

I like to remember those actions first.

For

  1. Pull up stop; lock in some of those gains.
  2. Check the news and see if something has come out. For my Canada oil stocks, check crude oil and news about it; and the whole market, check Nasdaq 100, check Dow as well.
  3. Assess volume -
  4. Watch price behavior -
Against

  1. Take some action
  2. put in a stop to help you stop panicking.
  3. Trim position; reduce the trade.
  4. Close position
My understanding
  1. Take some action - as soon as you see it, take some action. I do think that it is better to close the position, and then find the stock affecting worst, and try to buy low and catch rebound in next half hour. For example, check Apple stock, volatile stock.

Tips to Avoid Getting Your Stop Loss Hit

 Here is the link. 

The idea of a stop is that it is far enough away that it doesn't get hit but it is not too far away that we have a ridiculous risk:reward. As traders we always want to aim to make as much money as possible with at least risk as possible. That's what we are trying to achieve as traders.

As traders we are always hearing that our brokers and market makers are looking for our stops...in a way this is true but in others its not. Many people place a stop at exactly the same position; the market knows this and naturally the market will move to pools of liquidity. If there are stop losses above highs and there is a supply/demand imbalance the market will move to those pools of liquidity.

- Volatility of the Market - if the volatility is very high you will need a wider stop.

- Where does the market want to go - most of the times we have a good idea where the market wants to go but as traders we always need to maximise the profits while minimising the risk.

- Prior Probe Magnitudes - when you're looking at a key level, how often has a market gone thru it? How has the market handled key levels in the past?

- Environment - What's driving the market? Are we getting massive bursts of volume? What is happening?

Saturday, September 5, 2020

Pentagon says it will stick with Microsoft for $10 billion JEDI cloud contract

 Here is the article. 

It is so interesting to read about JEDI Cloud proposals. It is the first time I read the article about JEDI. 

The Pentagon said Friday it will stick with Microsoft for a major cloud contract that has been disputed in court for months.

The JEDI, or Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure, deal has become one of the most hotly contested contracts for the Department of Defense. The contract is intended to modernize the Pentagon’s colossal IT infrastructure and could be valued up to $10 billion for services rendered over as many as 10 years.

“The Department has completed its comprehensive re-evaluation of the JEDI Cloud proposals and determined that Microsoft’s proposal continues to represent the best value to the Government,” the Pentagon said in a statement. “The JEDI Cloud contract is a firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract that will make a full range of cloud computing services available to the DoD. While contract performance will not begin immediately due to the Preliminary Injunction Order issued by the Court of Federal Claims on February 13, 2020, DoD is eager to begin delivering this capability to our men and women in uniform.”


String Of Bearish News Shifts Sentiment In Oil Markets

 Here is the article. 


Oil Prices Face a Chill Autumn Wind

 Here is the article. 

Recovery stalled

U.S. oil demand recovery has ground to a halt at around 85% of last year's level 

2019 22 million barrels a day Aug 

2020 18 million barrels a day August 

Product analyst: Meet Business Analysts at Google

 Here is the link. 


46289 YALE ROAD 214, Chilliwack, British Columbia V2P0B9

 $194,900 CAD

The price should go down more since Coronavirus. 

May 24, 2017 $135,000

Sept. 5, 2020  $194,900

gains: $59,900

Compared to investment on stock market:

Down payment 20%, $30,000 Canadian dollars, gain each month is $1000.00 dollars. 

13728 108 AVE SURREY V3T 0G2 Area-Jurisdiction-Roll: 14-326-2238-98324-7

 Sept. 5, 2020

Introduction

It is hard for me to beat inflation from 2017 to 2020. Right now, the condo price in Surrey does not go down after coronavirus. The condo was $216,800 in August 1, 2017. But now it is still on sale with price tag: $30,9000. 

Home for sale

233-13728 108 AVE SURREY V3T 0G2

Area-Jurisdiction-Roll: 14-326-2238-98324-7

Aug 1, 2017$216,800

New listing:   $30,9000

The Biggest Mistake Beginner Traders Make

 Here is the link. 

My portfolio with over $1000 dollars loss and my confidence level

 Sept. 5, 2020

Introduction

It is hard for me to learn how to be a good investor. I always like to learn and work on something new as an investor as well. I like to make plans for next Tuesday when market reopens again. 

My portfolio as a beginner



Wall Street Week - Full Show (09/04/2020)

 Here is the link. 


Nasdaq 100 index - Crazy August gains and then Sept. 4 cooloffs

 The NASDAQ-100 is often abbreviated as NDX100 in the derivatives markets. Its corresponding futures contracts are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The regular futures are denoted by the Reuters Instrument Code ND, and the smaller E-mini version uses the code NQ. Both are among the most heavily traded futures at the exchange.[citation needed]

The PowerShares QQQ exchange-traded fund, sponsored and overseen since March 21, 2007 by Invesco through PowerShares, trades under the ticker NASDAQQQQ. It is commonly referred to by its ticker or nickname, "the que's". It was formerly called NASDAQ-100 Trust Series 1. On December 1, 2004, it was moved from the American Stock Exchange where it had the symbol QQQ to the NASDAQ and given the new four-letter code QQQQ, sometimes called the "quad Qs" by traders. On March 23, 2011, Nasdaq changed its symbol back to QQQ.[4]

In 2000, QQQ was the most actively traded security in the United States.


QQQ etf 

The risk was too high on Apple for me: Roger McNamee

 Here is the link. 


S&P, NSADAQ are on pace to snap a 5-week win streak

Docusign inc -13.07%

Paypal -8.72%

NVIDA -7.75%

CRM -7.70%

ABiomed inc -7.31%

Dexcom -7.09%


Roger McNamee - Facebook early investor

 Roger McNamee (born 1956)[1] is an American businessman, investor, venture capitalist and musician. He is the founding partner of the venture capital firm Elevation Partners. Prior to co-founding the firm, McNamee co-founded private equity firm Silver Lake Partners and headed the T. Rowe Price Science and Technology Fund.

As of 2020, The net worth of Roger McNamee is estimated to be somewhere around $1 billion. This wealth has been generated from his career as a businessman, venture capitalist, musician, and an investor. He has played a very big role in the growth and expansion of various companies.

Softbank: Options - I like to understand as a beginner

 Here is the article. 

Boockvar said the question now is whether SoftBank unloaded its positions. “We’ll see if they’re reversing it. A lot of the call buying was an upward lift to the market. The sellers of those calls, then had to buy stocks and hedge and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy on the upside,” he said.

The Financial Times said the trading volumes in single stocks had surged beyond the average daily volumes of calls on the broader stock market indices. 

Traders had been monitoring the unusual activity, which may help explain why the stock market had been climbing at the same time the VIX was rising. The VIX is the CBOE’s Volatility Index, which is calculated based on trading in puts and calls on the S&P 500. The VIX serves as the market’s so-called fear gauge and typically moves higher when stocks are falling, not rising.


Market correction: Sept 4 market crashes and rebounds

Here are highlights:

  1.  华尔街日报报导,软件银行过去一个月对亚马逊、微软、苹果、特斯拉在内的科技股布局数十亿美元看涨的买权,迫使卖家买进这些股票,也让这些股票涨过了头。
  2. Please take a look wall street article about softbank and options
  3. 亚马逊周五收复部分失土,跌幅2.2%,微软跌1.4%,特斯拉盘中一度大跌8.6%,终场涨2.8%,结束连三日近18%颓势。
  4. 标普500指数资讯科技类股按预估获利计算的本益比高达27.5倍,股价是偏高了。

美国股市周五大幅波荡过后小跌收低,结束一连两天的震荡走势,标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数连续五周的涨势,也就此告一段落。投资人提醒,周五虽有逢低进场的买气,但科技股仍有泡沫待除,下周二在劳工节假期过后,仍得提防出现暴跌。

美股市值最大的公司苹果周五盘中一度大跌 8.3%,收盘转而微涨0.1%,也帮助美股三大指数收复失土。台积电ADR跌2.8%,费城半导体指数跌1.9%。

道琼斯工业指数开高后自高点下跌875点,又一度拉回至平盘,收盘仍跌159.42点,本周跌1.8%。标普500指数和那斯达克综合指数各跌0.8%和1.3%,本周各跌2.3%和3.3%。

有“恐慌指数”之称、预期标普500指数震荡的波动率指数较周四一度减10%,仍接近7月以来最高水准30.75。有交易员认为,波动如此剧烈,是对大型科技股选择权交易激增所致。华尔街日报报导,软件银行过去一个月对亚马逊、微软、苹果、特斯拉在内的科技股布局数十亿美元看涨的买权,迫使卖家买进这些股票,也让这些股票涨过了头。

亚马逊周五收复部分失土,跌幅2.2%,微软跌1.4%,特斯拉盘中一度大跌8.6%,终场涨2.8%,结束连三日近18%颓势。

分析师预料,在劳工节假期过后,随放暑假的交易员陆续归队,重返工作岗位,美股仍难免震荡,尤其是近来大涨的那斯达克。

大型科技股股价偏于高估已是众所周知的事实,标普500指数资讯科技类股按预估获利计算的本益比高达27.5倍,股价是偏高了。而那斯达克100指数目前较200日均线高30%,也过热了。Bear Trap Report的麦当纳说:“我们愈早收到警讯,愈好。”

但周五走势来看,逢低买进仍是很多投资人的应变之道。BTIG策略师伊曼纽提醒:“我们这几周已讲过,那斯达克处于宣泄阶段。 ”

许多基金经理人和策略师认为,美股周四崩跌可能为接下来两个月的震荡走势揭开序幕,投资人将把重心放在美国经济可能出现的缺陷。Research Affiliates合伙人特鲁萨德说:“历来夏季总是交易量偏低,资讯处理速度也慢,今年也是如此。可以预料得到,经过上半年严重心理消耗之后,很多人会设法从中解脱,并再开始严肃面对状况。 ”

A Simple Rule for Moving Your Stop Loss to Break-Even / Profit

 Here is the link. 

We discuss a simple rule to decide when you should move your stop loss to break-even or to a profitable position. This is an easy rule to follow that will form the foundation of a more complex exit strategy for your trading. Having a good exit strategy is important in trading to make sure you keep risk under control and exit trades before they turn against you or get too out of hand.

Great Tips on Where To Place Your Stop Loss!

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Great Tips on Where To Place Your Stop Loss! http://www.financial-spread-betting.c... If you found value in watching this video, PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE so we can do more! When you are spread betting or swing trading the eternal dilemma is where to place your stop. Where do you put your stop? Most traders complain that the market keeps stopping them out. In reality what you should be doing would be reducing the stake size to have a proper stop in place. So where do i put my stop? 1) Under Support - putting a stop just under support is not a great idea as you can easily stopped out - your stop need to be well under the support. 2) Range Based 3) Time Based


Trade strategies: Where to place you stop loss order

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Using Stop Loss orders is an integral part of trading forex and stocks. It protects traders against mistakes and limits the damage to their accounts, increasing the odds of success. But finding the right Stop Loss levels can be a challenge, especially in markets that are more volatile than average like gold, oil and silver. David Jones takes us through the process of determining support and resistance levels that serve as guidelines for this, covering several scenarios and how to tackle them.