Saturday, January 30, 2021

Short sale squeeze: Chinese | How to read chart? | short sale

Jan. 30, 2021

I like to take some notes from the following article:

  1. Fact to review:
  2. 散户被剥夺了(买入)交易的权利,只能卖出已有的仓位,但华尔街机构却依然可以做空、平仓、买入、卖出等等,没有任何限制。这就好比两个拳击选手上台比赛,当一方快要输的时候,裁判突然冲了出来,把即将取胜一方的双手捆上,理由是 " 拳击是危险运动,为了你好,我把你的双手捆上 "
  3. 已经没有买入的能力了,能买的只有机构。难道是机构在看好这个股票,觉得 $100 多的股票有价值?当然不是,机构只是在平他们的空仓而已。也就是说,在一路多空大战中,机构们根本就没有停止过建他们的空仓,只是一路被散户打得落花流水,不停止损开新的空仓。最后趁着散户们逃跑的时候,终于割了韭菜 $450 空仓,平均 $225 平仓,收益 50%

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到了美股时间,全世界又把目光聚焦在美股散户大战华尔街的事件上。

昨夜,散户们被围剿,包括美国最大在线券商盈透证券在内的多家交易平台,对散户报团的个股交易作出了限制,这导致游戏驿站、AMC 影院的股价分别大幅收跌 44% 和 57%,报 193.6 美元和 8.63 美元。

这一举措引发了更广泛的争议,盈透证券的创始人彼得菲表示,限制部分股票交易是为了保护市场,而美国众议院民主党成员亚历山大则认为,这种限制措施让人无法接受。

29 日晚间,最新消息是,鼎鼎大名的做空机构,香橼停止做空研究!而散户抱团股恢复正常交易后再次集体暴涨!

2021 年 1 月 19 日,在游戏驿站暴力拉升之后,华尔街机构香橼在社交媒体上表示,游戏驿站的买家 " 是这场游戏中的傻子 ",预测股价将 " 很快 " 回到 20 美元的水平。这里的 " 傻子 ",可以被理解为一场比赛中的失败方,也可被理解成 " 不经骗的毛头小子 "。香橼曾经先后狙击过 20 余家中国概念股公司, 7 家已经退市,是华尔街知名的空头代表。

散户抱团,最终让空头安德鲁举白旗休战。安德鲁在社交网站上表示,香橼已经卖出做空仓位,但并未透露亏损多少。

" 我尊重市场。" 安德鲁通过视频表示," 我同样也尊重那些‘华尔街赌局’论坛里的人。早在这个论坛诞生前,早在 Instagram 或是脸书诞生之前,香橼也曾经是散户的代言人。我知道你们都叫我‘婴儿潮一代’,但我真的知道市场已经发生变化。" 此外,安德鲁还以 " 过来人 " 的姿态继续 " 教育 " 新手。" 记得锁定部分利润用于交税,你现在的利润,还不全都是你的钱。"

网友笑称:打不过就选择加入!

游戏驿站又涨到熔断!

散户抱团股又沸腾了

而恢复正常交易的散户抱团股们,又继续沸腾。

一开盘,游戏驿站(GME)触发熔断,熔断前涨幅为 83.03%。高斯电子触发熔断,熔断前涨幅为 63.73%。Express 触发熔断,熔断前涨幅为 40.64%。

截至记者发稿,游戏驿站(GME)仍涨超 60%,股价在 310 美元左右,市值近 220 亿美元。而一周前,该股市值不足 50 亿美元。

拔网线删代码,券商惹众怒

昨夜,美国证券交易平台罗宾汉(Robinhood)当地时间 1 月 28 日实施了限制措施,以阻止其应用程序的用户购买游戏驿站(GEM, GameStop)、AMC 娱乐和其他 Reddit 论坛的散户所针对的股票。

罗宾汉表示,将只允许用户卖出这些股票,不再允许买入。据社交媒体的用户反映,无法在 Robinhood 上找到 AMC、GME 和诺基亚的股票代码,即已无法交易。

罗宾汉采取上述限制行动后,愤怒的散户也将券商视作 " 协助空头 " 的 " 帮凶 "。在罗宾汉的官推下大量投资人炮轰交易平台的这一决定,同时亦有消息称已经有散户发起了针对罗宾汉证券的集体诉讼。

来自马萨诸塞州的 Robinhood 用户 Brendon Nelson 表示,Robinhood 在这场 " 史无前例的大涨 " 中,限制最受欢迎的游戏驿站的交易,剥夺了个人投资者的投资能力并操纵了市场。申诉书称,这一决定违反了其客户协议,也违反了金融行业规则。

除了长期关注股市的投资者,美国券商的行为也引起了立法机构的担忧。

民主党议员、众议院金融服务委员会成员 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 表示,罗宾汉证券此举 " 完全不可接受 ",这家券商需要解释为何限制散户交易那些对冲基金可以随意交易的股票,并呼吁召开相应的听证会。这条消息也获得了共和党大佬泰德 · 科鲁兹的赞同。

代表硅谷选区的国会议员 Ro Khanna 也发表声明称,国会正在纵容对冲基金的亿万富翁们将股市当作他们的私家花园,并在他们输钱的时候出手救济。在罗宾汉证券的散户们被限制交易的同时,对冲基金仍然能够交易同样的标的。这个市场需要更多的监管和公平。

受此影响,多家券商解除对游戏驿站及 AMC 院线的交易限制!

经常听到这样一句话,牌品见人品,华尔街这是打麻将输了,就掀桌子不让玩了?

海通国际分析点评称

这是华尔街丑陋的一天!

丑陋点一:散户被剥夺了(买入)交易的权利,只能卖出已有的仓位,但华尔街机构却依然可以做空、平仓、买入、卖出等等,没有任何限制。这就好比两个拳击选手上台比赛,当一方快要输的时候,裁判突然冲了出来,把即将取胜一方的双手捆上,理由是 " 拳击是危险运动,为了你好,我把你的双手捆上 "。

丑陋点二:限制散户进行买入交易的 Robinhood,和华尔街对冲基金们有着千丝万缕的联系。首先, Robinhood 后面的投资人 D(管理 $200 亿,向 Robinhood 投资了 $2 亿),本月也是巨亏 20%。华尔街日报并没有说巨亏的原因,只是说 D 的巨亏是由于最近市场混乱造成的。但最近除了几个股票被散户拱到天上以外,市场还有什么混乱吗?其次, Robinhood 和其它电子券商,会把散户的交易单发给 C,换取现金。也就是说,C 是源源不断给 Robinhood 和其它电子券商提供现金的金主。在这次逼空事件中,C 又是站在后面支持 M 的金主。我不知道向 Robinhood 关闭散户买入交易有没有得到两位金主 C 和 D 的暗示,我没法做判断,我只是把一些事实摆出来。

丑陋点三:华尔街的空头们,在散户限制交易买入交易之前,最后还不忘割散户非菜一把(这是我认为最丑陋的一点)。我们看下图。


 红色的那一段,就是电子券商集体限制散户买入之后的股价变化,价格瞬间从 $483 跌到了 $112。我相信这一个多小时的时间,散户们是绝望的,夺门而逃,股价经历了多次暂停。但是股价在到达低点 $112 之后,却一路上扬到 $300 多(绿色线段)。注意:散户们这时候已经没有买入的能力了,能买的只有机构。难道是机构在看好这个股票,觉得 $100 多的股票有价值?当然不是,机构只是在平他们的空仓而已。也就是说,在一路多空大战中,机构们根本就没有停止过建他们的空仓,只是一路被散户打得落花流水,不停止损开新的空仓。最后趁着散户们逃跑的时候,终于割了韭菜 $450 空仓,平均 $225 平仓,收益 50%。我不知道机构最后开空仓之前,事先知道了电子券商要对散户下手。同样,我不做有罪推断,我只是摆事实。

华尔街这丑陋一幕,远远胜过 2008 年金融危机卖方找政府要了救援计划,转手给高管发巨额奖金。民意,至少是散户的民意,异常愤怒,参议院立刻表示要召开听证会。我专门去查了一下 2015 年中国股灾出台的所有政策,最激进的就是限制公司出售自己的股票,但没有一条是针对散户的。要是 2015 年出台政策说散户们不准卖股票,或者直接让券商封了散户,只能买不能卖,那会招来什么样的口诛笔伐?是不是觉得参议院召开听证会,民意或者正义就会得到伸张了?想多了,参议院的听证会向来就是给民众揉揉伤口,告诉民众你们的冤屈我们听到了,我们以后会进一步监管。真要有动作,美国情报局应该马上宣布调查电子券商封禁散户买单的动机,以及大跌之前都有谁建了空仓,其实一点不难,但不会有人去做。我不觉得散户们把一个濒临破产的公司炒到天上,就有道理。但终结这场闹剧的手段,真的是丑陋。


Short sale squeeze: Wall street | Chinese | how to invest as a retail investor | case study: GameStop

Jan. 30, 2021

  1. 本来将退市的垃圾股游戏驿站,股价从3美元一路拉到300美元,一年涨了100倍,1月27日当天股价大涨超130%,近一个月来该股累计涨幅超过1700%。此外,全球最大的连锁院线AMC院线暴涨超300%。
  2. 对冲基金梅尔文资本(Melvin Capital)基金经理加布·普洛特金(Gabe Plotkin)表示,已于当地时间1月26日下午平仓了游戏驿站(GameStop)的空头头寸。该对冲基金惨遭散户逼空而损失惨重,传闻巨亏30%,不得不接受另外两家对冲基金Citadel和Point72联手向其提供合计27.5亿美元的资金。
  3. 逆袭的重要推手是社交媒体。吉俊礼指出,社交媒体制造了投资的新生力量,一群散户抱团行动,而且这样的现象以后还会出现。散户的股票市场最火的社交媒体是类似于贴吧的Reddit,上面的WallStreetBets是热门股票论坛。
  4. 2020年4月13日,据Reddit的用户elder Hedgehog的帖子所说,游戏驿站84%的股票都被卖空了,揭露用户持有该股票正被经纪商出借给空头。于是,Reddit的用户开始向做空者开战。
  5. 美股散户的代表、被称为“金融界的特朗普”的社交资本公司CEO、Chamath Palihapitiya接受媒体采访时表示,华尔街机构利用散户不能用的工具,有些根本就不看基本面来买卖,所以没有机构和散户谁高谁低,何况从特斯拉股价的历史来看,所有的对冲基金都错,所有的散户都对;而散户的研究水平可能与对冲基金的研究水平相当,所以散户不应被另眼相看。

 “血洗”华尔街不能归功于散户


美国当地时间1月27日,美国金融市场的重量级事件很多,最终却被名不见经传的上市公司游戏驿站(GME)抢去风头,针对这家公司股票的多空对决,在散户和机构投资者之间公开化,散户罕见逼空机构,成为全球各大财经媒体的头条。

在疫情之下,在空头对华尔街发起一轮又一轮攻击的同时,游戏驿站的暴涨叙述了全新的故事:通过使用期权,短线散户如何抱团推动个别公司股价大幅走高,使股价走势与基本面脱节,并成功击退投资机构,使华尔街的力量平衡发生引人关注的变化。

不过多位华尔街人士对《财经》记者表示,不论多空双方如何对战,目前还没有达到影响金融市场正常运转的程度。

1月27日这一周是美国企业季度财报密集发布的一周。得益于首款5G设备iPhone 12的强劲假期销售,苹果公司报告的季度营收首次突破1000亿美元,特斯拉和脸谱公司等也将公布财报。截至1月27日收盘,苹果公司股价在过去一年中上涨了84%。

不过对股市估值上升、新冠肺炎病例增多以及疫苗配送分配不均的担忧,令投资者担心美国股市近期将回调,波动性因此增加。美股三大指数27日均跌超2%,纳指、标普500一度跌逾3%。截至当天收盘,道指跌2.05%,纳指跌2.61%,标普500指数跌2.50%。

有恐慌指数之称的芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)波动率指数VIX,1月27日上涨61.64%,收报37.21点,为2020年11月2日以来最高,单日涨幅创近三年来最大。

本来将退市的垃圾股游戏驿站,股价从3美元一路拉到300美元,一年涨了100倍,1月27日当天股价大涨超130%,近一个月来该股累计涨幅超过1700%。此外,全球最大的连锁院线AMC院线暴涨超300%。

此前一天,对冲基金梅尔文资本(Melvin Capital)基金经理加布·普洛特金(Gabe Plotkin)表示,已于当地时间1月26日下午平仓了游戏驿站(GameStop)的空头头寸。该对冲基金惨遭散户逼空而损失惨重,传闻巨亏30%,不得不接受另外两家对冲基金Citadel和Point72联手向其提供合计27.5亿美元的资金。

在华尔街从业二十余年的贝瑞研究CEO吉俊礼(James Early) 对《财经》记者说,个别股票处于泡沫的顶部,散户通过社交媒体联合起来逼空机构,并赢得胜利,这是前所未见的。在投资领域,散户投资者正在创造他们自己的现实。

白宫新闻秘书帕莎其(Jen Psaki)表示,由财长耶伦领导的拜登政府经济团队正在“监察游戏驿站的情况”。纳斯达克交易所首席执行官阿德娜·弗里德曼(Adena Friedman)当天表示,“我们会监控社交媒体上的言论,如果发现言论与股票的异常表现相关,就会暂停股票交易”。另外,美国得美利证券亦开始限制用户交易股票。

散户暂时压制机构

在特朗普卸任之时,在政治上推动特朗普崛起的元素,如社交媒体等,正在金融界和华尔街推动其独有的、对建制派的逆袭。在经济界看来,这种逆袭的载体是实体经济。

游戏驿站是美国一家拥有37年历史的老牌游戏产品零售商,主要以线下零售为主。受线上游戏的冲击,游戏驿站近几年来连年亏损,其股价从2016年的28美元一路跌到2019年底的3美元。受新冠疫情影响,2020年截至三季度的净销售额更是同比下降30%。

在此背景下,游戏驿站成为2020年华尔街被卖空最多的股票之一。看空它的理由包括估值过高,其股价是远期EBITDA的40倍;去年12月其整体营收销售下降了9%,它的市场份额正在输给沃尔玛和亚马逊等竞争者。

疫情之下,由于居家隔离使打游戏变成热门的消遣方式,游戏行业的股票纷纷大涨,再加上公司调整,游戏驿站也逐渐受到大量散户的追捧,股价逐步攀升。到1月14日,其股价已达40美元以上,几乎重返2013年的水平。

逆袭的重要推手是社交媒体。吉俊礼指出,社交媒体制造了投资的新生力量,一群散户抱团行动,而且这样的现象以后还会出现。散户的股票市场最火的社交媒体是类似于贴吧的Reddit,上面的WallStreetBets是热门股票论坛。

2020年4月13日,据Reddit的用户elder Hedgehog的帖子所说,游戏驿站84%的股票都被卖空了,揭露用户持有该股票正被经纪商出借给空头。于是,Reddit的用户开始向做空者开战。

据说用户DFV(DeepFxxingValue)在股价最低点买入了五万美金的看涨期权,并在reddit上第一次发帖发表自己的看法和预测。

吉俊礼认为,散户投资者利用做空的规则限制,即空头们最终会迫于压力回购股票,形成逼空、轧空(short squeeze),反而促使股价飙升。事实上空头们一度买入游戏驿站股票止损,使其股价在两天内从20美元涨到14日的40美元。

WallStreetBets论坛成员大多为年轻人,不信奉理性和价值投资的理念,信奉YOLO主义(只活一次不要白活,You only live once)。他们宣称“要么发财,要么穷死”。论坛成员曾多次发布“动员书”,动员论坛内散户抱团打爆空头。DFV的这笔投资已上涨至1100万美金,收益率超200倍。

随着越来越多的Reddit散户加入到DFV的多头大军,他们的行为守则是:永不出售,永不投降。

散户的热情也反映在成交热度上,Downdetector.com的数据显示,热门交易网站Robinhood、Ameritrade、E*Trade、富达投资和嘉信理财都在27日出现了宕机现象。

根据S3 Partners编制的数据,做空该股的投资者今年已经损失了17.4亿美元。不过游戏驿站的股价在27日盘后一度下跌28%,之后有所回升,盘后的跌幅收窄至16%。

WallStreetBets的用户早年只有几千名,随着券商削减在线交易佣金,刺激零售交易活动大规模增长,该论坛参与者队伍随之膨胀,后来呈爆炸式增长,越来越多的人加入、浏览并参与到关于游戏驿站等股票的讨论中。随着游戏驿站股价一路走高,WallStreetBets用户一整周都在涌向这个网络社区发布相关帖子,该论坛用户数一月至今超过了300万。

是否涉嫌操纵市场?

WallStreetBets在1月27日晚间一度瘫痪,一开始该论坛登录页面显示消息称,WallStreetBets已被版主改为非公开论坛,原因是近来用户对该论坛的热情导致流量达到空前水平,带来了技术困难。大约一个小时后,该论坛再度向公众开放。

吉俊礼对《财经》记者说,那些不被机构看好的小市值股票,有足够的散户加入,其购买力就可以与华尔街投资机构抗衡。

虽然散户有机会利用衍生品、杠杆等交易机制掀起市场波动,但他们能否主宰市场?吉俊礼认为,很难想象散户同时卖出某些股票压垮股市,但他们有足够的影响力来引发连锁反应,散户投资者集中出售股票压低股价,引发更多投资者加入,促使投资者从共同基金撤资,从而推动共同基金卖出股票,引发更多市场恐慌。

多家机构已经对散户联手逼空机构的现象发出警告。路通资本市场(Loop Capital Markets)分析师安东尼-楚昆巴(Anthony Chukumba)对游戏驿站的散户投资者发出警告:如果想赌博就去赌,股市不是赌博的地方。加拿大金融公司Purpose Investments的首席投资官格雷格·泰勒也认为“逼空大戏模糊了赌博和投资之间的界限”。

吉俊礼指出,现在股市发生的现象已经完全与实体经济的游戏驿站公司无关,股价再高也挡不住这个公司倒闭的命运,但是它已经成为一个像赛马一样的赌,所有各方都认为自己必须赢。散户的这种非理性行为不可持续,如果发展到一定程度,就变成了操纵市场,就会引来监管。

美股散户的代表、被称为“金融界的特朗普”的社交资本公司CEO、Chamath Palihapitiya接受媒体采访时表示,华尔街机构利用散户不能用的工具,有些根本就不看基本面来买卖,所以没有机构和散户谁高谁低,何况从特斯拉股价的历史来看,所有的对冲基金都错,所有的散户都对;而散户的研究水平可能与对冲基金的研究水平相当,所以散户不应被另眼相看。

摩根大通一个不具名的经济学家对《财经》记者指出,现在市场本该应对疫情、拜登政府政策,疫苗和企业赢收,但取而代之的,是散户逼宫空头,这实际上是华尔街代表的虚拟经济与实体经济间的争夺,当炒作变成主体,赚钱变得如此轻松,大量的杠杆充斥,就说明市场面临着修正和调整,如果不是更坏的结果的话。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)1月27日发布《全球金融稳定报告》更新内容,表达了相关的警告。IMF指出,金融市场与实体经济脱节仍在延续,一旦投资者重新评估全球经济增长前景或政策展望,全球资产价格或将面临回调风险。

IMF表示,尽管全球新冠确诊病例数量不断攀升、世界经济前景仍面临不确定性,但随着疫苗研发和推广,市场对经济复苏的预期得以改善,推高风险资产价格。不过,在疫苗广泛普及前,金融市场回暖和经济复苏仍依赖政策支持。

Friday, January 29, 2021

GameStop research: Smaller investors face down hedge funds, as GameStop soars

 Jan. 29, 2021

Here is the article. 

  1. These investors have been betting that GameStop's stock will fall. They “shorted” the stock, which means they borrowed shares and sold them, hoping to buy them back at a cheaper price and pocket the difference. But such bets have been disastrous recently.
  2. I like to highlight the following:

The meteoric rise pushed some short sellers to get out of their bets, done by buying shares of the stock, and that helped accelerate its momentum even further. On Monday, the push and pull was so extreme that trading in GameStop's stock was temporarily halted at least nine times for volatility.

  1. It closed Monday at $76.79, after swinging between $65.01 and $159.18 earlier in the day.


NEW YORK -- A head-scratching David and Goliath story is playing out on Wall Street over the stock price of a money-losing video game retailer.

An army of smaller-pocketed, optimistic investors is throwing dollars and buy orders at the stock of GameStop — in direct opposition to a group of wealthy investors who are counting on the stock price to plunge.

The resulting action is wild, with GameStop's stock soaring nearly 145% in less than two hours Monday morning, only for the gains to disappear quickly afterward.

The struggling company based in Grapevine, Texas, has lost $1.6 billion over the last 12 quarters, and its stock fell for six straight years before rebounding in 2020. So, it might seem like a strange place for the locus of so much movement. But GameStop has been a target of many professional investors, who say the company will continue to founder as sales of games continue to go online.

These investors have been betting that GameStop's stock will fall. They “shorted” the stock, which means they borrowed shares and sold them, hoping to buy them back at a cheaper price and pocket the difference. But such bets have been disastrous recently.

GameStop was trading at less than $18 a few weeks ago. Its stock shot higher after the company named three new directors to its board on Jan. 11 to help speed its turnaround, including a co-founder of online pet-supply retailer Chewy. The thought was that should help GameStop's digital transformation.

A cavalcade of smaller investors, meanwhile, has been exhorting each other on the internet to keep the stock's momentum flying toward the moon. Many are pitching it as a battle of regular people versus hedge funds and big Wall Street firms.

It took just five days for GameStop's stock to double after announcing its board shakeup. This past Friday, it surged 51%, a larger gain than big stocks like Apple or Exxon Mobil have ever had in a day. For GameStop, the 51% move was only its second-best day of the month — and the month isn't over.

The meteoric rise pushed some short sellers to get out of their bets, done by buying shares of the stock, and that helped accelerate its momentum even further. On Monday, the push and pull was so extreme that trading in GameStop's stock was temporarily halted at least nine times for volatility.

It closed Monday at $76.79, after swinging between $65.01 and $159.18 earlier in the day.

That same sentiment carried well beyond internet message boards to Wall Street itself.

“As someone who started trading stocks in the late 90s in college, I would always remember watching when the small retail trading groups would get crushed by hedge funds and savvy short-sellers,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a report. “What happened with GameStop’s stock is a reminder of how times are changing.”

Equity research: Short-Squeezed Hedge Funds Are Now Getting Hit on Their Bullish Bets Too

 Jan. 29, 2021

Here is the article. 

I like to take my notes to highlight what I learn from the article. 

  1. Stocks hedge funds are bullish on are suddenly in trouble - GVIP ETF - top 10 holdings;
  2. Favorite stocks - Square, Roku, Peloton interactive Inc. 
  3. “If shorts cause too much pain, there is usually some repercussion on the other side as longs have to be sold to offset losses.”
  4. I like to look into those GVIP ETF - top 10 stocks

(Bloomberg) -- With a full-blown retail raid targeting their short books, many of the stocks hedge funds are bullish on are suddenly in trouble, too. That has prompted the industry to cut their risk appetite at the fastest pace in more than a year.

Square Inc., Roku Inc. and Peloton Interactive Inc., among the industry’s favorite stocks, each tumbled at least 3% Tuesday while GameStop Corp. continued to lead a rally among companies with the highest short interest. Shares of the video game retailer spiked more than 65% in late trading after Elon Musk tweeted about it.

The Goldman Sachs Hedge Industry VIP ETF (ticker GVIP), tracking hedge funds’ most popular stocks, fell for a fourth straight day, the longest stretch since October. That coincided with a 15% rally in a basket of the most-hated shares over the stretch.

In a market where bearish wagers are backfiring like never before, one way to mitigate career risk might be to sell stocks that had previously been working -- even if that means parting with some beloved companies.

“The recent squeeze in heavily shorted stocks has been nothing short of extraordinary,” said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at Bay Crest Partners. “If shorts cause too much pain, there is usually some repercussion on the other side as longs have to be sold to offset losses.”

Hedge funds are suffering as retail traders whipped up in chat rooms charge into heavily shorted names, fueling squeezes in stocks from Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. to AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. Fund managers have been busy paring bearish bets, with hedge fund clients tracked by Goldman Sachs carrying out short covering at an almost unprecedented pace during the past two weeks.

But the long sides of their books are starting to feel the pinch too. On Monday morning, when stocks with the highest short interest soared as much as 11%, the GVIP fund tumbled almost 2%.

Such a squeeze not only hurts performance for hedge funds, it increases the potential size of a measure known as daily value at risk, both of which would prompt money managers to cut back risk, according to Kevin Muir of the MacroTourist blog.

Indeed, gross leverage, or a gauge of hedge fund risk appetite that takes into account long and short positions, on Monday experienced the largest active reduction since August 2019, data from Goldman Sachs show.

“The real question is whether this selling starts a negative feedback loop,” Muir wrote Monday. “Even though it might seem like the stock market bulls should be cheering the squeezes, their success might end up being the trigger that brings about the general stock market correction many have been waiting for.”

(Updates with data on hedge funds cutting risk starting in first paragraph.)

50 stock under restriction: Robinhood

Jan. 29, 2021

I like to look into those stocks with restrictions. I have 5000 shares of CTRM. I like to learn better how this short sale squeeze work. I am willing to take risk, since business behind CTRM stock may have danger. 


Robinhood Expands Trading Restrictions To 50 Stocks, Including GameStop, General Motors, Starbucks, Several SPACs

5:52 pm ET January 29, 2021 (Benzinga) Print

Robinhood added additional restrictions to trades on its platform late Friday.

The restrictions include the ability to only buy one share of GameStop Corp (NYSE: GME), one of the hottest stocks this week and one that has led to a major short squeeze.

Robinhood also placed restrictions on Thursday that halted the buying of certain stocks. 

The list of stocks that now have limited restrictions has climbed to 50, according to CNBC. Here is a look at the 50 stocks with restrictions on Robinhood and the current limit on the number of shares and options you can purchase.

  • American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL): 1 share, 10 options
  • Aurora Cannabis (NYSE: ACB): 1 share, standard limits
  • First Majestic Silver Corp (NYSE: AG): 1 share, standard limits
  • AMC Entertainment (NYSE: AMC): 1 share, 10 options
  • Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ: AMD): 1 share, standard limits
  • BlackBerry Ltd (NYSE: BB): 1 share, 10 options
  • Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (NASDAQ: BBBY): 1 share, 10 options
  • BYD Co (OTC: BYDDY): 1 share
  • Beyond Meat (NASDAQ: BYND): 1 share, standard limits
  • Churchill Capital Corp IV (NYSE: CCIV): 1 share, standard limits
  • Clover Health (NASDAQ: CLOV) 1 share, standard limits
  • Curis (NASDAQ: CRIS): 1 share, standard limits
  • Castor Maritime Inc (NASDAQ: CTRM): 5 shares
  • Express Inc (NYSE: EXPR): 5 shares, 10 options
  • EZGO Technologies (NASDAQ: EZGO): 5 share
  • General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM): 1 share, standard limits
  • GameStop Corp: 1 share, 5 options
  • Gran Tierra Energy (NYSE: GTE): 5 share, standard limits
  • Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS): 1 share, standard limits
  • Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: INO): 1 share, standard limits
  • Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp V (NYSE: IPOE): 1 share, standard limits
  • Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp VI (NYSE: IPOF): 1 share, standard limits
  • Jaguar Health Inc (NASDAQ: JAGX): 5 share, standard limits
  • Koss Corp (NASDAQ: KOSS): 1 share
  • Lianluo Smart (NASDAQ: LLIT): 5 share
  • Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA): 1 share, standard limits
  • Naked Brands Group (NASDAQ: NAKD): 5 shares
  • The9 Ltd (NASDAQ: NCTY): 1 share
  • Nokia Oyj (NYSE: NOK): 5 shares, 10 options
  • Novavax Inc (NASDAQ: NVAX): 1 share, standard limits
  • Opendoor Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: OPEN): 1 share, standard limits
  • Rocket Companies Inc (NYSE: RKT): 1 share, standard limits
  • RLX Technology (NYSE: RLX): 1 share, standard limits
  • Rolls-Royce Holdings (OTC: RYCEY): 5 shares, standard limits
  • Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX): 1 share, standard limits
  • Shoals Technologies Group (NASDAQ: SHLS): 1 share
  • Siebert Financial Corp (NASDAQ: SIEB): 1 share, standard limits
  • iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV): 1 share, standard limits
  • Sundial Growers Inc (NASDAQ: SNDL): 5 shares, 10 options
  • Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares (NYSE: SOXL): 1 share, standard limits
  • Sorrento Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: SRNE): 1 share, standard limits
  • Star Peak Energy Transition Corp (NYSE: STPK): 1 share, standard limits
  • Tengasco (NYSE: TGC): 5 shares
  • Tian Ruixiang Holdings (NASDAQ: TIRX): 1 share
  • Tootsie Roll Industries (NYSE: TR): 1 share, 10 options
  • Trivago (NASDAQ: TRVG): 55 shares, 10 options
  • Workhorse Group (NASDAQ: WKHS): 1 share, standard limits
  • Qualtrics International (NASDAQ: XM): 1 share, standard limits
  • Zomedica Corp (NYSE: ZOM): 5 shares

CNBC: GME-CNBC | Chamath | Interview | Chinese translation

 Jan. 29, 2021

Here is the link. 

Chamath Palihapitiya - Social capital CEO

Take some notes: 

  1. Wall street mathematician - 140% of GME stock 
  2. Momentum in traditional hedge fund as well 
  3. Dirty secret - Melvin capital - fundamental ? | stock picker | stocks selected | copycat | go against all the time
  4. Push and pull ?
  5. Wall street hedge fund - their way - TELSE
  6. market neutral - fair ? - 100 - 2008 government bailout
  7. $125,000 dollars - learning - modern era - setup mathematics - 140% of company shares 
  8. Allow it happen - go to private broker - trillion dollars traded by those organization
  9. Get involved at first place - 
  10. Wall street - Melvin - I tweet about - 10 million impression - wallstreetbets - dynamic - trading - momentum - game - small position to learn - people fundamental - organized capital - I am allowed to right side of that - Just fact of one time - National television 
  11. Bets to pay off student load, mortgage | what is happening of wallstreetbets | Cohort 
  12. Herbal life - hedge fund manager - Bill Archman - fundamental case of their mind 
  13. Close door - what is difference? 
  14. ETF or passive fund - poverty - Wall street casino - massively oversell the company - 40% of shares do not exist - Wall street missed - Pay the price 
  15. Market is fine - Took the company to public - rely on integrity 
  16. No fundamental story behind them | nothing wrong 
  17. Gamestop - reasonal business - allow to exist - grind to the ground - 
  18. Free market - TELSA - you do not know what to underwrite what you like to own it
  19. You got it wrong 
  20. Investors - wrong? Tell me fundamental cases 
  21. AMC - months and months - trade - momentum - momentum - under hood - momentum shops - small swings - retail - some of them got screwed - game is working 
  22. How smart people are - discord - bunch of smart people | smart way 
  23. AMC - one moment a time | sweep - do not know what they are doing | fundamental analysis
  24. Reality - gate - to those | institutional clients | precondition | massive short of those ...
  25. Leverage ratio - short squeeze - retail - bag of future 
  26. Participate wall street term - wall street - warning sign - hazard sign - FYI - more transparent 
  27. Why we do that - hedge fund - study those internal - fundamental disagree - 
  28. Portfolio - too many puts and buy - institutional capital - transparent report - 140% report 
  29. Squeeze - fix it - ask same transparent - shadow 


Thursday, January 28, 2021

Joseph Carlson: Reddit vs Wall Street (The Full Story) | Joseph Carlson Ep. 135

 Jan. 28, 2021

Here is the link. 

  1. Momentum strategy
  2. Game hedge ?

How A Battle Between Wall Street And Reddit Users Made GameStop Stock Skyrocket | Forbes

Jan. 28, 2021

Here is the link. 

Between December 28th, 2020 and January 27th, GameStop stock increased by 1,555%. This week, it hit a high of $380 per share and created a new billionaire. Thousands of at-home traders, many perched on Reddit boards, are pouring into a slew of heavily shorted and "fundamentally hated" stocks Wednesday in an effort to squeeze money out of the short bets placed by Wall Street’s elite; here are the stocks–in addition to GameStop and AMC–nabbing mind-blowing gains as regulators start to sound an alarm on the frenzy among retail traders. According to regulatory filings, Ryan Cohen—the founder and former CEO of Chewy, a booming e-commerce firm focused on pet supplies–spent about $76 million buying up more than 9 million GameStop shares at the tail-end of last year as he mounted an effort to restructure the Grapevine, Texas-based firm. It’s unlikely that Cohen, or anyone for that matter, could have predicted what would play out over the next couple of months. GameStop shares are up more than 800% since his declaration, and the value of Cohen's stake has skyrocketed to about $825 million. Tack that onto the proceeds Cohen received from PetSmart's $3.4 billion acquisition of Chewy in 2017, and Forbes estimates the 35-year-old is worth about $1 billion. A spokesperson for Cohen said he was not available for an interview at press time. Like GameStop and AMC, many of the stocks fueling the Reddit trade are among the most shorted stocks in the market, including Bed Bath & Beyond, Ligand Pharma and National Beverage Corp, which are up 28%, 18% and 36% Wednesday afternoon while the broader market struggles to stay afloat. Out of the 10 most shorted stocks (as a percentage of shares available to trade), eight of them were posting double-digit percentage gains Wednesday, including FuboTV, Tanger Factory Outlets and Tootsie Roll Industries.


Veteran trader Art Cashin: WallStreetBets may have some big professionals in hiding

 Jan. 28, 2021

Here is the link. 

CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" team discusses the GameStop trading frenzy and why it isn't "tremendously new" with Art Cashin of UBS. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2NGeIvi


Hedge fund:

?


Dan Niles on how he's playing the short squeeze frenzy

 Here is the link. 


Mohamed El-Erian gives four reasons he's concerned about volatile trading around GameStop

Jan. 28, 2021

Here is the link. 

Mohamed El-Erian, economic advisor at Allianz and Gramercy and president at Queens College, Cambridge, joined "Squawk Box" on Thursday to discuss the current market madness surrounding certain stocks such as GameStop. El-Erian lists four reasons for his concerns. To see the full interview with El-Erian sign up for a free trial to CNBC Pro: https://cnb.cx/39rkpJ8


CTRM stock: Learn one more industry - shipping

I think that it is important for me to accept myself as an investor. Do not judge positions of CTRM by it's market value. Think about creating more jobs for pandemic. 



Behavior - tricking algorithms - sell off

It’s unlikely anyone here is selling. This is a short ladder. It only looks like the stock is selling off, in reality, it’s not. Hedge funds sell back and forth with one another at lower and lower bids in rapid succession, tricking algorithms into thinking there is a mass sell off when there actually isn’t. (They do this to scare off retail investors to engineer a sell off).


Once the attack is over, the stock will normally go back up due to its demand. Then they will rinse and repeat their attack, each time hoping to chip away more and more retail investors. Most people in here know this, so if retail investors are selling, it’s unlikely that it’s anyone at all.

if you have shares put the price at 100$ or 200$ for sale by doing that the bank can't lend your shares to people that will use your shares to short it against you, if everyone does that it will be less shares available to short and will be a difficult to locate the END

CTRM stock: Castor Maritime (CTRM) Moving Towards $1.50 On Bullish Note

 Here is the link. 

My notes:

  1. The stock has over 350% in 2021 so far;
  2. Jan. 28, 90% high pre-market trading after soaring 36% on Wed
  3. Completion of the direct share offering to institutional investors
  4. 127 million shares of its common stock to institutional investor for $0.19 a share; warrants $0.19 each

The Castor Maritime Inc (NASDAQ: CTRM) shares have been in focus among investors since the start of the year. The stock has managed to record gains of 350% in 2021 so far and the rally continued on Wednesday.

This morning, the stock jumped by as high as 90% during pre-market trading after soaring 36% on Wednesday. One of the major triggers behind the rally this week is linked to the completion of the direct share offering to institutional investors.

The company sold 127 million shares of its common stock to institutional investors for $0.19 a share. It also includes warrants that were priced at $0.19 each.

The company also revealed that it raised gross proceeds of as much as $26 million from the offering and hence, it is no surprise that the Castor Maritime stock has garnered much interest among investors. Considering the gains made by the stock and the recent events, it could be a good idea for investors to keep an eye on it.

On Reddit, Facebook, and Twitter, a group of investors launched CTRM buying campaigns in order to increase the price of shares along with call options — gives buyers the right to buy the stock at a set price until a certain date. And short sellers — investors who borrow stock with a bet that the price will fall — have been buying the shares back soon in order to reduce more losses. Plus institutional investors are also buying shares to hedge against call options being bought.

The Retail Investors Are Winning: Jim Bianco

Jan. 28, 2021

Here is the link. 

Jan.28 -- Jim Bianco, Bianco Research founder, says retail investors are winning and becoming more powerful. He appears on "Bloomberg the Open."

Status report: Jan 28, 2021 - Short sale squeeze

 


Time to change: Keep learning and work on equity research

 Jan. 28, 2021

Introduction

I certainly can say that it takes time to learn how to invest. As a single 55 year old, I like to learn how to keep learning and work on equity research. Do not get too excited on market swing. Try to hold some valuable stocks. Pandemic is also enjoyable to make a living. Focus on more sports training, fitness training. 

Time to change 

I like to change my goal to invest. Do not chase profit. I did not sell when I had chance to have gains over $9000 dollars in Jan. 27, 2021. I thought about more money, NOK stock to $20/ share. I can quickly have 3 times more gains. Right now all gains are gone on NOK stock with 0.4/ share losses. 

I do think that it is good experience. It is time for me to make changes. Think about other projects in my life. Try to serve better myself with good finance information. Stay positive, and go through pandemic with peace. 


NOK stock: What is my plan to hold 3500 shares of Nokia?

 Let me learn something from this surge - $10000 dollars gain in Jan. 27, 2021, and then $1615 dollars loss, cost of share is $5.2/ share. The 12-month consensus price target is $4.53. 

Nokia Stock Plummets After Mysterious Surge


More than 1.1 million calls have crossed the tape so far

Nokia Oyj (NYSE:NOK) is plummeting today, down 28.7% at $4.66 at last check. Today's negative price action comes after yesterday's surge to a nine-year high of $9.79, after which the stock pulled back to close at $6.55. The company noted that it was unaware of any reason for the surge in share price, but it's spectacular volume meant it joined GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) as a restricted stock on the Robinhood investment app due to "market volatility." 

Options traders are chiming in at an overwhelming rate, with options volume running at seven times what's typically seen at this point. More specifically, NOK has seen more than 1.1 million calls and 150,000 puts cross the tape so far, with the most active option the weekly 1/29 10-strike call. 

Today's options pits echo the sentiment of the past 10 weeks, per Nokia stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 35.06 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This reading sits in the 98th percentile of its annual range, revealing long calls being picked up at a much faster-than-usual rate. 

On the analyst front, however, five of the six in coverage carry a lukewarm "hold" rating on NOK. Plus, the 12-month consensus price target of $4.53 is a 3.9% discount to current levels. 

 

Behavior problem: EXPR, AMC restriction - NAKD, NOK

It is hard for me to learn how to take less risk. After the warning of EXPR, AMC on robinhood, I did take risk to purchase NOK and NAKD. As a normal grow-up, I should quickly evaluate my risk, and then take some of profit to run. Instead I did not take anything. That is on Jan. 27, 2021. 

Now the restriction applied to BAKD and NOK. I have to take loss and miss another chance to make profit of NOK 6600 gains on Jan. 27, 2021, 2400 gains on NAKD. 

How to tell signals and consider things calmly and carefully? As an investor, I have to survive with those IRA $20,000 and those 10 years savings. 

More caution. Wisdom, heart to listen. Train myself better in the future. 


Casino skills | vacation day | misc thoughts

 I did not have casino skills. What I did experience on Jan. 27, 2021 is so interesting. I like to write down in the following:

Forever short sale squeeze project I owe you those young generations: 

  1. NOK - 2500 shares, price up 8.0, gains on $6000 dollars alone on NOK position alone on IRA account; 
  2. I did not sell it since I dreamed big - 20 dollars/ share holding them - I did not take the tip to sell - not 10% to 30% profit - I need to act on tip, work on 30% sale - get back to my original investment
  3. Make another move, BAKD, went up from 1000 share 0.73 -> 3.2, I did not sell anything; - I should sell and make half profit first. 
  4. Casino skills - I need to learn and work on my thought process
  5. Short hand squeeze - I can move to other stock to make gains - take some profit and run!
I need to learn more about wall street and SEC. 

Hard work: Morning working hours - 4:00 AM - 7:56 AM

I need to write another one called 4:00 AM - 7:56 AM. I called office to take a vacation day. As a 55 year old, I am not mature and experienced to go through short sale squeeze and made financial gains quickly. 

After new regulation came out this morning, just after the market opened. I experienced loss over $3000 dollars. I also made quick decision to purchase those 3000 shares CTRM. 



Hard work: Moring working hours - 4:00 AM - 6:30 AM

I got up early, and then prepared to purchase shares for today. I started my day at 4:00 PM, and then I learned that Ameritrade.com started to move in with orders purchased. 

NOK stock went down, I made purchase 1000 shares. I did not purchase lowest price, 5.7/ share, and I saw it go down 40 cents/ share. 


Actionable Items

  1. Learn to evaluate myself not to use those 6000 dollars gains in Jan. 27, 2021, 2400 gains in NAKD stock; I missed those gains. 
  2. I learn the importance to take precaution of my own behavior; Play better risk control at the beginning of investment; 
  3. Better listener;
  4. Stay curious. Learn how to take a day off when important project is going on - my equity project on Jan. 27, 2021;
  5. Treat those profitable project on Jan. 27, 2021 seriously. It is the first step I can train myself to work efficiently for my own business; 
  6. Keep those equities in long term. I do believe that wallstreetbets chose good stock to invest. I made purchase around $22,000 dollars. I like to push myself to learn more about NOKIA, 5G and other important technology; 
  7. Those short sale squeeze is really challenge for me to learn; I like to continue to learn how to do good equity research. 
  8. Do no worry about market value right now. Move on other important projects. 
Enjoy my vacation in 2021 - First vacation day. Go to sleep first. 


Equity portfolio: Yahoo -> Finance -> Julia short squeeze - Jan. 2021

 


Hard work: Moring working hours - 4:00 AM - 6:30 AM

I got up early, and then prepared to purchase shares for today. I started my day at 4:00 PM, and then I learned that Ameritrade.com started to move in with orders purchased. 

NOK stock went down, I made purchase 1000 shares. I did not purchase lowest price, 5.7/ share, and I saw it go down 40 cents/ share. 



Equity research: How can I do better? | short sale squeeze

 Jan. 28, 2021

Introduction

I spent sometimes to chat with friends with voice. I like to take down my notes here. I do believe that the equity research is so hard, and I do believe that I will find ways to do better equity research. 

My equity research 

  1. I do believe that NOKIA should grow bigger, and then purpose of wall street is ...
  2. I should figure out youtube.com recommendation, why short sale squeeze does not in my recommendation in last 365 days. 
  3. I notice that I do not have good project management skills. I do not write down my plan to make purchase, carefully plan, and then examine my action; instead, I will get emotional. 
  4. If I think that one day, I can make over $28,000 dollars on NAKD from 0.70 to 3.2, I should take a day off at home, and carefully prepare a check list to get more education on this short sale squeeze trend on stock.
  5. I should evaluate my risk, really push hard to get the first $10,000 gain if possible; And then investigate my next target. 
  6. I rely on too much wechat group I was in, so that I did not understand my project on EXPR; I ended up selling 4800 shares at price 2.1. I am a trader, trying to make less than $3000 dollar's gains, but I missed the quick learn what is short sale squeeze. 
  7. I like to question my learning ability. The way I can act quickly on trend and follow up with my gains if possible. 
  8. Three chance are missing, 4800 shares of EXPR, 2000 shares of NOK for $6,000 dollars on Jan. 27, 2021, and NAKD - 1000 share, 0.70 -> 3.2/ share on Jan. 27
  9. I should start to work on yahoo finance, I do believe those folks provide very good fundamental research, seems to be candid. 
  10. I talked about NAKD, purchase 10000 shares of NAKD at price 0.70. A few people in the group made purchases, but I only purchased 1000 shares; I did not carefully examine my own behavior. 
  11. The reason I like to make purchase of NAKD, surprising - I did see NOK position has over 6000 dollar's gains, a friend told me to sell, but I did not act. I started to plan more purchases in the budget of $3000 dollars in my IRA. 
  12. More on step 11, there are more than two issues, I should push myself to learn and listen to those friends, they know time to make profit. I should sell 50% of shares, and then get back in when the price is down. Like passive rebalance. 
  13. More on step 11, I should train myself to trade more often and then learn more basic skills to place orders, and look up information on ...

Lessons learned: EXPR 4800 shares - 2.1/ share sold

 Jan. 28, 2021

EXPR share price went up above $13/ share. I have nothing to sell, since I sold all of them at the price of $2.1/ share. 

Lessons learned:

  1. Never under any case to sell all shares I purchase - build a good habit - leave 20% - 30% room for mistakes: future growth of stock up to 10 times or 150 times (gme stock 30 shares in Oct. 2021)
  2. Consider take back original capital, consider market swing, and plan to buy low and sell high if possible
  3. Another is not to be panic, stay calm, understand why it is possible to go up to $10/ share by hedge fund manager - always investigate first, $2600 is profit, but my weakness is not to ask why, really understand the reason of short sale squeeze. 
  4. If I like to sell stocks, then I should not consider the current day's market price, think about 3 months after. 
  5. In another hand, try to set target for my purchase for short sale squeeze. Set a target for gains $10,000 dollars, set up goal first and then work on the goal. $10,000, or $20,000 dollars. 
  6. Winnie still has 50 shares of EXPR - my lessons are learned from her project management. 
  7. Consider market pullback, bear market; do not go for short term gains - like $2600 dollars, but miss $40,000 dollars gains on EXPR. 
  8. How to develop an algorithm to sell and leave room for mistake to sell too low? 
  9. I have to get all kinds of tips from friends, articles, and do not make judgement until things are clear. Check with CNBC youtube channel more often. 
  10. Be careful of my time spent on wechat. Leave voice message. 
  11. Argue that NOK stock should go up as BB stock does up to over $20/ share. 
  12. Argue that NAKD stock will go up as EXPR stock does.