Thursday, June 29, 2023

阿里被裁员的人到底有多惨?

 因为没有任何大厂愿意支付你们这么高的工资了,你们原先这么高的工资是被炒上去的。


在拼多多 3 万一个月被字节跳动挖到了 6 万,你就以为你出去一直是 6 万了吗?显然不是。


阿里被裁员的人到底有多惨?


看过了高山之后,突然没有了现金流,就没有尊严,就像一个猴子一样被扒光了。


阿里被裁员的人就是很惨的,因为他们以为好日子一直都在。


在阿里的时候,阿里给了他们年薪百万,然后他们让老婆做全职主妇,生二胎,两个孩子,且都读国际学校,然后刚需房换改善房现在还在还房贷。


这四个点都是现金流,每个月都要开支的硬性开支。


老婆 1 万零花钱不过分吧,孩子国际学校饮食吃喝拉撒2万块钱一个月不过分,按揭 4 万块钱一个月不过分,自己 5 千块钱不如狗。

一共 7 万 5 ,突然被裁,他怎么去找这个现金流?

HO CHI MINH,CAI MEP 胡志明盖梅港

 HO CHI MINH,CAI MEP 胡志明盖梅港

Cảng Container Quốc Tế Cái Mép, Phước Hòa, Bà Rịa - Vũng Tàu, Việt Nam

盖梅港(Cai Mep),越南第一大深水港,位于巴地头顿省,处于胡志明市南部 80 公里靠近Cai Mep-Thi Vai河河口处,目前挂靠最大的船舶是马士基班轮泛太TP-6线的9500-10000TEU型船舶。
盖梅港是越南南部的主要外贸口岸,由马士基旗下的APM码头公司、越南西贡港和越南国家航运公司合资兴建。越南经济的快速发展,使一批以盖梅港为代表的港口兴起。2009年12月,越南政府批准投资200-245亿美元对海洋港口发展进行规划和建设。这预示未来越南将有越来越多的新兴港口崛起。
盖梅深水港埠属于越南政府整体海港系统总建设规划的5号港口区,靠近国际航线,位于越南70%集装箱集散地,港口自然水深可停泊重吨位船舶,每年淤塞情况较轻微,鲜少需要疏浚。该深水港区规划有5个深水码头,以Gemalink -Cai Mep规模最大,第1期工程便已达到另外4个紧邻码头未来全面建成后的规模,造价3亿美元(含土地使用权规费),落成后主码头长800公尺供停泊母船,其内建有1个集装箱(feeder船)码头长260公尺,仓储货栈面积33公顷,每年可吞吐120万TEU货物。第2期工程完成后(2014年),仓储货栈面积将拓展至72公顷,同时主码头将延长至1,150公尺,FEEDER码头亦延长至370公尺,每年可吞吐240万TEU货物。GEMALIN-Cai Mep深水码头是由越南Gemadept公司与法国CMA-CGM公司合资联营公司GEMALINK于2010年6月底,与韩国Dealim-SAMWHA两合公司联合兴建,预计于2013年落成营运。Gemalink-Cai Mep为盖梅港目前唯一规划为可进出载重20万DWT船只,及停泊载重量1万TEU以上母船的深水港码头(其他码头最多只能进出10万DWT船舶)

SQL 2022 | Factors that can delay log truncation

The Transaction Log (SQL Server) | Transaction log truncation

 Log truncation frees space in the log file for reuse by the transaction log. You must regularly truncate your transaction log to keep it from filling the allotted space. Several factors can delay log truncation, so monitoring log size matters. Some operations can be minimally logged to reduce their impact on transaction log size.

Log truncation deletes inactive virtual log files (VLFs) from the logical transaction log of a SQL Server database, freeing space in the logical log for reuse by the Physical transaction log. If a transaction log is never truncated, it will eventually fill all the disk space allocated to physical log files.

To avoid running out of space, unless log truncation is delayed for some reason, truncation occurs automatically after the following events:

  • Under the simple recovery model, after a checkpoint.
  • Under the full recovery model or bulk-logged recovery model, if a checkpoint has occurred since the previous backup, truncation occurs after a log backup (unless it is a copy-only log backup).
  • When you first create a database using the FULL recovery model, the transaction log will be reused as needed (similar to a SIMPLE recovery database), up until the time you create a full database backup.

For more information, see Factors that can delay log truncation, later in this topic.

Niantic lays off 230 employees, cancels NBA and Marvel games

 Pokémon GO is Niantic’s cash cow, pulling in more than $1 billion in in-app purchases each year since 2020. But players have also been feeling slighted by Niantic’s in-app purchase system.

OVV stock | 2020 March

 


Here is the article.

Despite a massive push toward renewables, the oil and gas industry remains the most vital component to the global energy mix. This puts Ovintiv Inc. (NYSE:OVV) in a good position.

Originally known as Encana, the company was the largest energy company and the largest natural gas producer in Canada before relocating to the U.S. in 2020 and rebranding as Ovintiv.

America and the world still need more energy. First, the high-energy density of oil and gas provides substantial energy relative to their volume, making them ideal for applications like transportation. Second, the existing infrastructure for oil and gas extraction, refining and distribution is extensive and represents a significant investment. Third, oil and gas are economically important, contributing to job creation, tax revenues and economic stability in many regions. These traits alone will keep the industry viable for at least another generation. Global energy demand is rising, especially in developing economies, and oil and gas will continue to play a crucial role alongside renewable energy sources. I think that will be the case even in the U.S., where regulations seem to be tightening.

  • Ovintivs production

    At the end of 2022, Ovintiv had proven reserves north of 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Further, the company is expected to produce in the range of 520,000 to 546,000 BOE per day for 2023. Of that, approximately 26% is petroleum, 25% is natural gas liquids and 49% is natural gas.

    That means 598 million barrels of oil, at $74 for Brent, which equates to nearly $50 billion. That alone is 5 times Ovintivs market capitalization. Then add the value of natural gas and liquid natural gas to tack on another $17 billion and $27 billion respectively. Collectively, this comes out to a stockpile worth nearly $100 billion. The current market capitalization is around $10 billion.


Common And Costly Investing Mistakes to Avoid

Here is the link. 

Wednesday, June 28, 2023

How To Sell Stocks: When To Cut Losses

Here is the link. 

How To Scale Out Of Winning Stocks Using These Five Signals?

 Again, the five strategic places at which you may want to lock in profits are the 20 to 25% profits zone. 10 to 15% extended above the ten day line at a break of the ten day line. A break of the 21 day line. And finally, a decisive break of the ten week moving average.

00:04:49:23 - 00:04:55:02
Unknown
You can make this your own if you want to use just three of these five sell signals, you can.
00:04:55:04 - 00:05:10:00
Unknown
In that case, you'd be selling in thirds. Just do it fits your trading personality and risk tolerance. What's important here is to have a plan. Each of these lines in the sand help you preserve your gains while trying to ride a stock's move higher for bigger profits.



How to scale out of winning stock using those five signals?

Here is the link.

 00:00:00:00 - 00:00:04:04

Unknown
A.
00:00:04:04 - 00:00:24:01
Unknown
It's a great feeling when a stock pick works out in your favor, but you don't want to fumbled the ball at the one yard line. You want to make sure you score the touchdown and collect all of the profits associated with that win. Today we're talking about how to scale out of a position that's worked in your favor so you can successfully capture the gains that you've made in that stock.
00:00:24:03 - 00:00:32:07
Unknown
There are at least five points where you should strongly consider selling a portion of your position when the stock goes on. A big run from your initial buy point.
00:00:32:09 - 00:00:45:02
Unknown
The first is the 20 to 25% profit zone. After a 20% run, you may be feeling really good and thinking, well, if this stock has gained 20%. How do I know that it won't gain 50 or 100%?
00:00:45:02 - 00:00:50:22
Unknown
and if it's not sending any sell signals like a break below the 50 day line, why wouldn't I hold it?
00:00:50:24 - 00:00:53:10
Unknown
It may seem a little counterintuitive at first,
00:00:53:12 - 00:01:05:02
Unknown
But experience will quickly teach us that the 20 to 25% level is often the perfect point to lock in some of your profits and eliminate the risk that a 20% gain could fade away to zero.
00:01:05:02 - 00:01:12:09
Unknown
It's a good rule to stick by to ensure you lock in at least some of your gains. You certainly don't have to sell the entire position.
00:01:12:10 - 00:01:22:20
Unknown
Perhaps consider selling 20% of the position. Now, let's say the stock continues to rally even further. Where is the next sell opportunity to lock in more gains?
00:01:22:20 - 00:01:41:23
Unknown
When a stock is really on a powerful run, we'll see it become extended above, not just the 50 day and 21 day lines, but also the ten day line as well. Once a stock becomes anywhere from 10 to 15% extended above the ten day line, that's often a good place to sell another 20% of your position.
00:01:42:04 - 00:01:50:09
Unknown
Now, usually after a stock is run up and become extended from the ten day line, it makes sense for a pullback to occur as nothing goes up forever.
00:01:50:09 - 00:02:06:03
Unknown
The third sell signal comes as the stock moves back below the ten day line and closes below it. Here, you might consider selling another 20% of the position. Then investors can use the 21 day moving average as a fourth line in the sand here.
00:02:06:04 - 00:02:25:08
Unknown
If the stock undercuts and closes below this exponential moving average, it may be a good time to sell yet again. Finally, the last sell signal comes as the stock closes decisively below the ten week line. This means that we want to see a close of at least 2% or more below the ten week line by the end of the trading week.
00:02:25:10 - 00:02:29:09
Unknown
Ideally, this close will occur in a stronger than average volume.
00:02:29:09 - 00:02:44:14
Unknown
Sometimes stocks can test this key level intra week, but find support here by the end of the week. This is important because big winners will test support at the ten week line along the way. So traders trying to hold for a massive gain don't want to get stopped out too early.
00:02:44:21 - 00:02:49:07
Unknown
So now that we've laid out all of these sell signals, let's take a look at an example.
00:02:49:07 - 00:03:08:15
Unknown
Here is a snapshot of chipmaker Nvidia during its big move in the second half of 2021. First, shares broke out from a two 3043 buy point from a consolidation which allowed the trader to initiate a position. Then the stock rallied 40%, passing through the first sell signal.
00:03:08:17 - 00:03:14:19
Unknown
The 20 to 25% profit zone. You could have taken profits there or held for a bigger run.
00:03:14:19 - 00:03:23:16
Unknown
the stock technically triggered to sell signals in one day on November 4th, when it also became more than 15% extended above the ten day line.
00:03:23:24 - 00:03:45:19
Unknown
The next sell signal for this position occurred on November 17th, when the stock closed below its ten day line. Then a few weeks later, the stock closed below the 21 day line, though it closed well off its lows. So maybe some traders sold more of their position here, while others may have waited just because of how much it rallied back by the close.
00:03:45:21 - 00:04:05:08
Unknown
If you didn't sell there a few sessions later, it closed below the 21 day line, again, presenting another chance to lighten up. Now we can switch over to a weekly chart to see how a few weeks later, in early January 2022, the stock closed sharply below the ten week line as volume picked up from the prior two weeks.
00:04:05:10 - 00:04:07:24
Unknown
This clearly marked the end of Nvidia's run,
00:04:07:24 - 00:04:30:00
Unknown
but savvy traders were able to lock in some of their gains at much higher prices before this final sell signal occurred. So to summarize, we don't want to leave our profits up to chance. How you exit your trades is just as important as how we enter them. We must have definite sell signals that we can use even when things are going great and a stock moves perfectly in our favor.
00:04:30:11 - 00:04:49:23
Unknown
Again, the five strategic places at which you may want to lock in profits are the 20 to 25% profits zone. 10 to 15% extended above the ten day line at a break of the ten day line. A break of the 21 day line. And finally, a decisive break of the ten week moving average.
00:04:49:23 - 00:04:55:02
Unknown
You can make this your own if you want to use just three of these five sell signals, you can.
00:04:55:04 - 00:05:10:00
Unknown
In that case, you'd be selling in thirds. Just do it fits your trading personality and risk tolerance. What's important here is to have a plan. Each of these lines in the sand help you preserve your gains while trying to ride a stock's move higher for bigger profits.

The 8-Week Hold Rule | IBD-university

 

The 8-Week Hold Rule

An Exception to Taking Profits at 20%-25%

If your stock gains over 20% from the ideal buy point within 3 weeks of a proper breakout, hold it for at least 8 weeks. (The week of the breakout counts as Week No. 1.)

If a stock has the power to jump over 20% very quickly out of a proper base, it could have what it takes to become a huge market winner. The 8-week hold rule helps you identify such stocks, and helps you sit tight so you can reap potential rewards.

This rule should be applied to true market leaders, not just any old stock. The company should have strong fundamentals and other CAN SLIM® traits, including quality institutional sponsorship.

Sitting Tight Through a Sell-Off

When a stock quickly rises more than 20% in just a couple of weeks, it's likely some investors will take their profits off the table — that can cause the stock to pull back, sometimes sharply.

So understand that stocks that trigger the 8-week hold rule often sell off fairly hard, sometimes during the holding period. This rule helps you sit through that and avoid selling too soon.

The 8-Week Hold Rule in Action

After Holding 8 Weeks, Should You Sell Or Hold?

Once the 8 weeks from the original buy point have passed, you can sell to lock in your gains or continue to hold. If you have a solid gain, and the chart action and general market are still strong, you may want to sit tight and see how the story plays out. It could be a stock that goes on to even bigger gains.

When to Take Profits | IBD-university

 You don't need to hit home runs to win the investing game. Focus on getting base hits. To grow your portfolio substantially, take most gains in the 20%-25% range.

Though contrary to human nature, the best way to sell a stock is while it's on the way up, still advancing and looking strong to everyone.

As IBD founder William J. O'Neil says, "The secret is to hop off the elevator on one of the floors on the way up and not ride it back down again."

So after a significant advance of 20% to 25%, sell into strength. When you sell like this, you won't be caught in heart-rending 20% to 40% corrections that can hit market leaders.

Why 20%-25%?

Typically, growth stocks tend to advance 20% to 25% after breaking out of a proper base, then decline and set up new bases, and in some cases resume their advances.

So in most cases (see the 8-week hold-rule exception), you're better off locking in your gains to avoid watching your profits disappear as the stock corrects. And you can potentially compound those gains by shifting that money into other stocks that are just starting a price run.

By following this disciplined approach, you'll regularly nail down the kind of solid gains that lead to large, overall profits in your portfolio.

The Rule of 72

This simple calculation shows how effective following the 20%-25% profit-taking rule can be.

Here's how it works: Take the percentage gain you have in a stock. Divide 72 by that number. The answer tells you how many times you have to compound that gain to double your money. If you get three 24% gains — and re-invest your profits each time — you will nearly double your money. It's much easier to get three 20%-25% gains out of different stocks than it is to get a 100% profit out of one stock. Those smaller gains still lead to big overall profits.

The table below shows how that works:

Calculating the 20%-25% Gain

The 20%-25% profit-taking zone is based on the stock's ideal buy point. That may differ from your own purchase price.

As we saw in How to Buy Stocks the ideal buying range is from the ideal buy point up to 5% above that price.

So let's say you bought 2% above the ideal buy point. If the stock then goes up 20%-25% from the ideal buy point, your profit would be 18% to 23%. See the chart below for an example of how this works.

The 20%-25% Profit-Taking Rule in Action

View the chart markups below to see how — and why — you want to take most profits once a stock is up 20%-25% from its most recent buy point.



Limit your loss to 7% - 8% | IBD-university

 To make money in stocks, you must protect the money you have. Live to invest another day by following this simple rule: Always sell a stock it if falls 7%-8% below what you paid for it. No questions asked.

This basic principle helps you cap your potential downside. And it's the simplest way to make sure you never let a small loss become a BIG one.

Why 7%-8%? The 7%-8% sell rule is based on our ongoing study covering over 130 years of stock market history.
Even the best stocks will sometimes break out and then drop to slightly below their ideal buy point. When they do, they typically do not fall more than 8% below it. If your stock does decline more than 8% it usually means something is wrong with your chosen entry point, the company, its industry, the general market or all of the above.

Sometimes you'll know the reason. Other times you won't. But you do know the stock is dropping, and you're sitting on a 7%-8% loss. You must immediately shift into capital-preservation mode and cut that loss short.

Once a stock begins to plunge dangerously there's no telling where the bottom is. Limit your loss to 7% or 8% and get out. Imagine an ax hurtling through the air coming right at you. Would you stand there trying to figure things out? Just step aside.

Your #1 priority is to preserve capital. Sell first, ask questions later.

Applying the 7%-8% Sell Rule If you buy a stock at 100 and it falls to 92 or 93, sell it. But if that stock rises to 150, and then slips 8% to $138, that does not trigger this particular sell rule, because the stock is still trading above your purchase price. (Of course, you may want to check to see if the stock is flashing any other warning signs and sell signals.)

The 7%-8% Sell Rule in Action Below are examples of why it's important to cut all losses quickly.

What If You Sell and the Stock Rebounds and Moves Higher? There may be times when you sell a stock at a 7%-8% loss, only to see it bounce back and climb higher. While that can be frustrating, be sure to keep things in perspective. Normally if you buy correctly and your stock and the general market are acting well, your stock will not fall 7%-8% below the proper buy point.

So when the stock does trigger that sell rule, take action. Its behavior is telling you something isn't right.

Even if you sell at an 8% loss and the stock quickly rebounds, that doesn't mean you made the wrong decision. You were proactively protecting your portfolio. Taking a small loss from time to time is like paying an insurance premium to make sure you don't suffer a devastating hit. And you can always buy a stock back if it once again shows strength.

Sometimes Sell Even Sooner The maximum loss you should allow is 7%-8%. That's especially true if the stock shows other warning signs and sell signals. Also, in a particularly weak or volatile market environment, you may choose to limit your loss, say, at a 3%-5%.

As we saw in the section on Market Direction, your stocks do not operate in a vacuum. The trend of the overall market has a significant pull on virtually all stocks. That's why it's critical to always view your stocks within the context of the general market. Are we in the early or later stages of a bull market cycle? Is the uptrend starting to weaken and show signs of rolling over into a correction (i.e., downtrend)?

These and other market-related factors help you decide what action to take. See Market Direction for tips and tools on how to quickly gauge overall market health.

Monitoring changes in SQL Server using change data capture

Change Data Capture for auditing SQL Server | Ahmad Yaseen | Sqlshack.com

 

Change Data Capture for auditing SQL Server

March 18, 2019 by 
ApexSQL pricing

This article on Change Data Capture will provide an overview, notes on installation, architecture, enabling and disabling, auditing DML statements and limitations

Before reading this article, I recommend that you to go through the previous articles of this series (see the TOC at the bottom), to understand the concept of the SQL Server Audit, the reasons behind auditing the SQL Server instances and databases, and the different methods that can be used to audit the SQL Server databases. In this particular article, we will discuss how to perform SQL Server database tables audit using Change Data Capture.

Overview

Change Data Capture, also known as CDC, introduced the first time in SQL Server 2008 version, as a helpful feature to track and capture the changes that are performed on the SQL Server database tables, with no additional programming efforts. Before SQL Server 2016, Change Data Capture could be enabled on a SQL Server database only under the SQL Server Enterprise edition, which is not required starting from SQL Server 2016.

Change Data Capture tracks the INSERT, UPDATE and DELETE operations on the database table, and records detailed information about these changes in a mirrored table, with the same columns structure of the source tables, and additional columns to record the description of these changes. SQL Server writes one record for each INSERT statement showing the inserted values, on record for each DELETE statement showing the deleted data and two records for each UPDATE statement, the first one showing the data before the change and the second one showing the data after performing the change.

Implementing a manual SQL Server Audit | SQLShack | Ahmad Yaseen | Jan. 5, 2019

Here is the article. 

A SQL Server audit can be performed using various number of methods. This includes using the built-in SQL Server Audit feature, using third party tools from the SQL Server market or simply perform the audit task using the legacy methods manually. In the previous article of this series, SQL Server audit overview, we discussed the main concept of a SQL Server audit, the importance of auditing the SQL Server instance changes and the SQL server audit checklists. In this article, we will go through the manual procedures for auditing the SQL Server instance.

Change Data Capture for auditing SQL Server | SQLShack | Ahmad Yaseen

Morningstar undervalue 15 stocks | Day one | Build good habit to invest

 


Build a good habit, and take advice from Morningstar, and invest on good quality stocks undervalued. 


Will check when to purchase those expensive ones in the following:






Tuesday, June 27, 2023

《赢得“输家的游戏”》查尔斯·艾丽斯

 

《赢得“输家的游戏”》查尔斯·艾丽斯——12.07 完 🌟🌟🌟星(满5个星)

这本书有把思想带动了,感觉跟之前的想法不一样,新的想法看过之后,脑子里面有点开始几种想法碰撞。主要告诉我们在市场中,要减少交易、减少操作,保持一定的耐心。因为在这个市场中,比你优秀的人多的是,那么多人都在市场中研究,有很多基金都是跑不赢大盘的,何况作为个人投资者呢,还有那么的优秀的人操作基金或者私募,那些机构里面的人每天都在努力研究市场、研究公司、研究散户,都想着战胜市场,收割更多的盈利,但是最终又多少是活了下来,股市里面常说一赢二平七亏,何尝不是呢,大部分是玩不过机构的,市场上那么多家机构人家研究员分析、总结以及在努力学习,怎么都比个人投资者每天就看看大盘来投资强多了,想跟他们较量,甚至想着去战胜他们,实在是作为一个“输家”。

既然赢不了他们,那么我们就应该尽可能的让我们减少失误,不要让他们收割,当我们减少失误的时候,游戏输的概率就不大了,反而会出现盈利。因为比你优秀的人太多了,与他们相比肯定是很难胜利的,那可以换种思路,不要去与他们相比,而是去学习他们,顺便跟随市场,这样才能生存下去。

大部分个人投资者能力都差不多哪里去,主要是看谁能耐着性子,减少交易次数,减少亏损的次数,这样比别人亏损次数少,自然就跑赢其他的人,这样就变成赢得“输家的游戏”,看似我们在操作上是输了,但是最后结果上我们是赢的,保持下去,就会长久生存,并且不断的出现盈利。

与更优秀的人相比,一定概率上是已经输的,但是可以减少输的次数,转化思路,减少操作失误,就是在增加自己盈利的概率。想要去主动战胜那些机构不容易,反而容易失败。学会不让机构收割,减少在市场中的交易次数,别让机构抓着,最后就是胜利的。

总之,市场中尽可能减少交易次数、减少亏损。保持耐心,不要与市场对着干,学会与市场相处,做市场的学生,遵守自己的交易原则,如果还没有,那就要进行建立。

《随机漫步的傻瓜》纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布

 

《随机漫步的傻瓜》纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布——12.14 完 🌟🌟🌟🌟星(满5个星)

这是一本讲故事的书,看过后还是有很多感慨的,从书中更多看到自己以前的习惯,虽然现在已经几乎被消失,但是经历的事情还是在脑中留下回忆。

书中内容在个人看来应该是以怀疑论来说的,书名为随机漫步的傻瓜,生活中的很多事情其实都是具有随机性的,并不是因为某个人或者其他现象造成结果。其中有个黑天鹅事件,更是让人惊醒。黑天鹅事件是指:当人们观察5000只天鹅时,发现这5000只天鹅都是白天鹅,没有一只是黑天鹅,于是人们就得出所有的天鹅都是白天鹅,只到有一天人们发现新大陆后,在这个新大陆上发现有一只天鹅是黑色的,于是将之前的结论就推翻,得出天鹅有白天鹅和黑天鹅。在没有发现黑天鹅之前,人们一直认为所有的天鹅都是白色的,这是不变的道理,但只到发现黑天鹅,才接受把这个道理推翻。

从黑天鹅事件中也可以看出,我们要保持着怀疑的态度看待事情,有些事情并不是看到的这个样子,要学会去思考,不要急着做出决定。

另外书中给我的感觉就是作者在以怀疑的态度,怀疑大部分的事情,就比如很多时候大家认同的事情,可能就会提出反对的想法,总想着找出对方提出的漏洞。就如随机性一样,大多数时候是不相信的,相信的只是很少数很数。比如在市场中交易,始终保持着警惕的看法,在别人看多的时候,始终是有看空。相信市场中总是不会一直成功,这也是随机性。毕竟市场有牛熊交替。保持这种想法,主要是不让自己在市场中失败,导致被市场淘汰。可能市场让你赢很多次,但是只要让你在市场中有一两次大的失败,可能你就在起不来。书中更多的是愿意以保持不失败而在市场中生存,保持不失败那么就要对市场具有警惕,在别人可以大赚特赚的时候,自己能够保持跟上市场即可,但是不能把自己置身于危险之中,更不能让自己有大失败的机会。更不要眼红别人赚多少多少,更多的是保持着在市场中生存下去的能力。可能有的人因为满仓,在市场中大赚一笔,几次尝试后赚很多钱,觉得是由于自己的能力和技术赚的,不是运气成分,于是把更多的钱投入到市场中,但是这个时候可能因为市场一次与自己所想的不一样,导致前面数次的钱又还给市场,而且可能会被市场打败,在也不进入市场中。而我们在市场中能够活下去,那么就要保持警惕,始终不能将自己放到危险中,即使市场在热,也要保护好自己。

另外在市场中,能够生存下去,还有一点是在市场不好时,保持着轻仓或者空仓,不要让市场伤害到自己。更不要因为市场一时的诱惑而陷入进去,更不要看段时间内其他人赚钱,而着急进入。这个需要交给时间来解决。当保持轻仓或者空仓时,看着市场不断走出来的趋势,跟随内心去做,生存才是最重要的,其次才是赚钱。生存不能解决,迟早是要还的。

市场中交易其实和生活中也是一样的,记得小时候是一个非常爱找事情的另一面。总是因为别人提出的想法,而提出相反的想法,总是对世界充满怀疑,只到慢慢长大后,才把这中习惯改掉,被生活教育的不在生活中表现出这种怀疑态度,但是内心还是会对事情进行思考。持怀疑态度在这个世界上,往往是格格不入的,更多的被其他人看不习惯。正如书中作者最后所说,因为和别人看法不一样,很多人是看不惯自己的,能够保持这种原则不改变,始终做自己,是让人钦佩的。生活中为了更好的适应,有时候还是需要去和群,目前所处的状态也是这样,可能以后经历多之后,会改变现在的想法,这个交给时间来验证。

Howard Marks's The Most Important Thing

 Howard Marks's The Most Important Thing distilled the investing insight of his celebrated client memos into a single volume and, for the first time, made his time-tested philosophy available to general readers. In this edition, Marks's wisdom is joined by the comments, insights, and counterpoints of four renowned investors and investment educators: Christopher C. Davis (Davis Funds), Joel Greenblatt (Gotham Capital), Paul Johnson (Nicusa Capital), and Seth A. Klarman (Baupost Group).

These experts lend insight into such concepts as "second-level thinking," the price/value relationship, patient opportunism, and defensive investing. Marks also adds his own annotations, expanding on his book's original themes and issues. A new chapter addresses the importance of reasonable expectations, and a foreword by Bruce C. Greenwald, called "a guru to Wall Street's gurus" by the New York Times, speaks on value investing, productivity, and the economics of information.

***

Howard Marks, the chairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management, is renowned for his insightful assessments of market opportunity and risk. After four decades spent ascending to the top of the investment management profession, he is today sought out by the world's leading value investors, and his client memos brim with insightful commentary and a time-tested, fundamental philosophy. Now for the first time, all readers can benefit from Marks's wisdom, concentrated into a single volume that speaks to both the amateur and seasoned investor.

Informed by a lifetime of experience and study, The Most Important Thing explains the keys to successful investment and the pitfalls that can destroy capital or ruin a career. Utilizing passages from his memos to illustrate his ideas, Marks teaches by example, detailing the development of an investment philosophy that fully acknowledges the complexities of investing and the perils of the financial world. Brilliantly applying insight to today's volatile markets, Marks offers a volume that is part memoir, part creed, with a number of broad takeaways.

Marks expounds on such concepts as "second-level thinking," the price/value relationship, patient opportunism, and defensive investing. Frankly and honestly assessing his own decisions--and occasional missteps--he provides valuable lessons for critical thinking, risk assessment, and investment strategy. Encouraging investors to be "contrarian," Marks wisely judges market cycles and achieves returns through aggressive yet measured action. Which element is the most essential? Successful investing requires thoughtful attention to many separate aspects, and each of Marks's subjects proves to be the most important thing.

"This is that rarity, a useful book."--Warren Buffett

《巴菲特与索罗斯的投资习惯》马克·泰尔

 

《巴菲特与索罗斯的投资习惯》马克·泰尔——12.17 完 🌟🌟🌟🌟星(满5个星)

有点小小的感动,这本书看的收获不少,特别是七种致命的投资信念。七种致命的投资信念如下:

  1. 要想赚大钱,必须先预测市场的下一步动向。(现实:在对市场的预测上,成功的投资者并不比你我强)
  2. “权威”信念——即便我不会预测市场,总有其他人会,而我要做的只是找到这么一个人。(现实:如果你真的能预见到未来,你是站在房顶上大声谈论它,还是闭紧嘴巴,开一个护然后大发横财)
  3. “内部消息”是赚大钱的途径。(现实:巴菲特是世界上最富有的投资者,他最喜欢的投资“消息”来源通常是可以免费获得的,那就是公司的年报。)
  4. 分散化。(现实:巴菲特的惊人成就是靠集中投资创造的,他只会重点购买他选定的六家大企业的股票。)
  5. 要赚大钱,就要冒大险。(现实:成功投资者都是不喜欢风险的,他们会尽可能地回避风险,让潜在损失最小化。)
  6. “系统”信念,某些地方的某些人已经开发出了一种能确保投资利润的系统,技术分析、原理分析、电脑化交易、江恩三角,甚至占星术的神秘结合。(现实:这种信念是“权威”信念的必然产物——只要一名投资者使用某位权威的系统,他赚的钱就会像这位权威(自称能赚到的)一样多。这种普遍的致命投资信念正是推销商品交易系统的人能够赚大钱的原因。)
  7. 我知道未来将会怎样——而且市场“必然”会证明我是对的。(现实:这种信念是投资狂热的一个常见特征。)

23 种制胜的投资习惯才是重中之重。

  1. 成功者:相信最高优先级的事情水远是保住资本,这是他的投资策略的基石。
    失败者:唯一的投资目标就是“睡大钱”。结果,他常常连本钱都保不住。
  2. 成功者:作为习惯一的结果,他是风险厌恶者。
    失败者:认为只有冒大险才能睡大钱。
  3. 成功者:他有他自己的投资哲学,这种哲学是他的个性,能力。知识。晶位和目标的表达。因此,任何两个极为成功的投资者都不可能有一样的投资哲学。
    失败者:没有投资哲学,或相信别人的投资哲学。
  4. 成功者:已经开发并检验了他自己的个性化选择,购买和抛售投资系统。
    失败者:没有系统,或者不加检验和个性化调整地采纳了其他人的系统。(如果这个系统对他不管用,他会采纳另一个……还是一个对他不管用的系统。)
  5. 成功者:认为分散化是荒唐可笑的。
    失败者:没信心持有任何一个投资对象的大头寸。
  6. 成功者:憎恨缴纳税款和其他交易成本,巧妙地安排他的行动以合法实现税额最小化。
    失败者:忽视或不重视税收和其他交易成本对长期投资效益的影响。
  7. 成功者:只投资于他懂的领域。
    失败者:没有认识到对自身行为的深刻理解是成功的一个根本性先决条件。很少认识到盈利机会存在于(而且很有可能大量存在于)他自己的专长领域中。
  8. 成功者:从来不做不符合他标准的投资。可以很轻松地对任何事情说“不”。
    失败者:没有标准,或采纳了别人的标准。无法对自己的贪欲说“不!”。
  9. 成功者:不断寻找符合他的标准的新投资机会,积极进行独立调查研究。只愿意听取那些他有充分的理由去尊重的投资者或分析家的意见。
    失败者:总是寻找那种能让他一夜暴富的“绝对”好机会,于是经常跟着“本月热点稍息"走。总是听从其他某个所谓“专家”的建议。很少在买人之前深人研究一个投资对象。他的“调查”就是从经纪人和顾问那里成昨天的报纸上得到最新的“热点”消息。
  10. 成功者:当他找不到符合他的标准的投资机会时,他会耐心等待,直到发现机会。
    失败者:认为他任何时候都必须在市场中有所行动。
  11. 成功者:在做出决策后即刻行动。
    失败者:迟疑不决。
  12. 成功者:持有赢钱的投资,直到事先确定的通出条件成立。
    失败者:很少有事先确定的遇出法则。常常因担心小利润会转变成损失而匆匆脱手,因此经常错失大利润。
  13. 成功者:坚定地遵守他自己的系统。
    失败者:总是“怀疑”他的系统一如果他有系统的话。改变标准和”“立场”以证明自己的行为是合理的。
  14. 成功者:知道自己也会犯错。在发现错误的时候即制纠正它们。因此很少遭受大损失。
    失败者:不忍放弃赔钱的投资,寄希望于“不赔不赚”。结果经常遭受巨大的损失。
  15. 成功者:把错误看成学习的机会。
    失败者:从不在某种方法上坚持足够长的时间,因此也从不知适如何改进一种方法。总在寻找“速效药”。
  16. 成功者:随着经验的积累,他的回报也越来越多----现在他似乎能用更少的时间赚更多的钱。因为他已经“交了学费。
    失败者:不知道“交学费”是必要的。德少在实践中学习一一容易重复同样的错误,直到输个精光。
  17. 成功者:见乎从不对任何人说他在做些什么。对其他人如何评价他的投资决策没兴趣也不关心。
    失败者:总在谈论他当前的投资,根据其他人的观点而不是现实变化来“检验”他的决策。
  18. 成功者:已经成功地将他的大多数任务委派给了其他人。
    失败者:选择投资顾问和管理者的方法同他做投资决策的方法一样。
  19. 成功者:花的钱远少于他赚的钱。
    失败者:有可能花的钱超过他赚的钱(大多数人是这样).
  20. 成功者:工作是为了刺激和自我实现,不是为钱。
    失败者:以赚钱为目标:认为投资是致富的捷径。
  21. 成功者:迷恋投资的过程(并从中得到满足) ;可以轻松摆脱任何个别投资对象。
    失败者:爱上了他的投资对象。
  22. 成功者:24小时不离投资。
    失败者:没有为实现他的投资目标而竭尽全力(即使他知道他的目标是什么)。
  23. 成功者:把他的钱投到了他赖以谋生的地方。例如,沃伦.巴菲特的净财产有99%是哈撒韦的股份,乔治索罗斯也把他的大部分财产投入了量子基金。也们的个人利益与那些将钱托付给他们的人是完全一致的。
    失败者:投资对他的净财产贡献甚微一实际上,他的投资行为常常威胁到他的财富。他的投资(以及弥补损失的)资金来自于其他地方:企业利润、薪水、退休金、公司分红,等等。

2019 年书单

Here is the link.  


《笑傲股市》威廉·欧奈尔

 《笑傲股市》威廉·欧奈尔 4.15——4.22 完

CAN SLIM
1、当季每股收益大于40%以上,小心那些连续2个季度每股收益都是负的。当季每股收益增长幅度至少20%以上。
2、每股收益年度增长率范围在25%—50%,股权收益率(ROE)大于17%,市盈率并不是越低越好。
3、能够开发出新产品、新管理阶层(新华保险),股价新高。这样的机会更大。
4、股票发行量、大额交易量。量价分析。
5、同行领导股,不要犯同情心去买其它相似的股票。
6、几家优秀的机构投资者持有的股票。最近几个季度内该股票的机构投资者数量明显增多。
7、市场趋势。
买入原则
1、买入原则,投资机构认同的股票,并且是高价股。
2、公司每年都有盈余,并且当季的每股盈余成长率应在20%以上。
3、股价成交量应该有50%以上的增幅。

好园丁永远会丢掉碎花瓣,剪掉枯萎的枝干。
在不知道池子有多深之前,可别一头扎下去。