Nov. 16, 2021
Sometimes I play this strategy game called “Who is winning the most here”. The game assumes all players are incredibly self-interested and power/access is highly unequal. Sounds like life right? Here’s how Foley and friends are winning the most -
-Went the SPAC route at the exact moment of frenzy for SPACS and raised a ton of cash used to acquire competitors and refinance debt.
-Converted to PSFE and immediately went short, used every legal instrument in options markets to profit from the year-long price erosion.
-Collapsed the price under $5 to force 400 Million shares to rotate out of retail hands (some), PIPE (a little), index funds (more) and early institutions (most).
-“Friends of” funds, institutions and perhaps company insiders ready to buy the collapse, at a discount price of -60% to the SPAC offer. All they had to do was wait patiently a year for the chance.
Summary: get a bunch of free money to go public, make a bunch of money ripping this stock a new one for a year, then make the most money of all scooping up the discounted shares. Psssssst all while lowering guidance and inviting even more short interest to a stock manufactured to be a turd. Then plan a huge beat a couple quarters from now and watch the fireworks as everyone who lost a ton of money in the downfall tries to get back in at the upswing to “redeem themselves” and the manufactured short interest adds tinder to the fire.
For this to be true all one must do is 1) understand at a detailed level how this game is legally played 2) accept at the outset the Foley name would get smeared at some point 3) line up a pipe and some early big name investors willing to buy and hold the planned collapse while deriving value in other instruments 4) line up the later big name investors willing to buy and hold at the collapse. 5) take a multi-year view 6) be willing to eff the little guys and a few institutional funds
As I said, game assumes all players are incredibly self-interested and power/access is highly unequal.
This is how Foley and friends are winning the most, and I do 100% believe they went this route to play to win.
Note: Foley has been consistently saying a shareholder rotation would happen and that this investment would be the crown jewel of his decorated track record. You think he cares his good name is smeared for a year to let the process play out? Yea, I’m sure he cares a great deal about that as he and friends laugh at his winery how this has all gone exactly to plan.
-Went the SPAC route at the exact moment of frenzy for SPACS and raised a ton of cash used to acquire competitors and refinance debt.
-Converted to PSFE and immediately went short, used every legal instrument in options markets to profit from the year-long price erosion.
-Collapsed the price under $5 to force 400 Million shares to rotate out of retail hands (some), PIPE (a little), index funds (more) and early institutions (most).
-“Friends of” funds, institutions and perhaps company insiders ready to buy the collapse, at a discount price of -60% to the SPAC offer. All they had to do was wait patiently a year for the chance.
Summary: get a bunch of free money to go public, make a bunch of money ripping this stock a new one for a year, then make the most money of all scooping up the discounted shares. Psssssst all while lowering guidance and inviting even more short interest to a stock manufactured to be a turd. Then plan a huge beat a couple quarters from now and watch the fireworks as everyone who lost a ton of money in the downfall tries to get back in at the upswing to “redeem themselves” and the manufactured short interest adds tinder to the fire.
For this to be true all one must do is 1) understand at a detailed level how this game is legally played 2) accept at the outset the Foley name would get smeared at some point 3) line up a pipe and some early big name investors willing to buy and hold the planned collapse while deriving value in other instruments 4) line up the later big name investors willing to buy and hold at the collapse. 5) take a multi-year view 6) be willing to eff the little guys and a few institutional funds
As I said, game assumes all players are incredibly self-interested and power/access is highly unequal.
This is how Foley and friends are winning the most, and I do 100% believe they went this route to play to win.
Note: Foley has been consistently saying a shareholder rotation would happen and that this investment would be the crown jewel of his decorated track record. You think he cares his good name is smeared for a year to let the process play out? Yea, I’m sure he cares a great deal about that as he and friends laugh at his winery how this has all gone exactly to plan.
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